MLB Betting News and Notes Thursday, August 10th, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Marlins @ Nationals
Straily is 0-3, 7.20 in his last three starts; over is 5-1 in his last six. Miami is 5-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-9-1

Roark is 3-0, 3.26 in his last three starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Washington is 4-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-8-2

Marlins lost four of last six games; five of their last seven games stayed under. Washington won four of its last six games; over is 4-1 in their last five games.

Padres @ Reds
Lamet is 2-0, 2.84 in his last two starts; over is 6-3 in his last nine. San Diego is 3-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-6

Castillo is 1-3, 3.96 in his last four starts (over 3-1). Reds are 1-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-4

San Diego lost five of last seven games; over is 4-1-1 in their last six. Cincinnati lost four of last seven games; over is 4-0 in their last four games.

Mets @ Phillies
deGrom is 0-2, 4.91 in his last two starts, 1-0, 2.07 in two starts vs Philly this year. Over is 8-3 in his road starts. Mets are 7-4 in those road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-7-1

Velasquez is 0-1, 3.43 in four starts since coming off the DL; under is 4-1-1 in his last six. Phillies are 2-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-9-1

Mets lost five of last six games (under 4-1-1). New York is 9-8 in road series openers. Phillies won their last three games; under is 8-3 in their last 11. Phils are 5-12 in home series openers.

Dodgers @ Diamondbacks
Darvish blanked the Mets for seven IP (99 PT) in his first start for the Dodgers, a 6-0 win. LA’s first 5-inning record with him: 1-0

Banda is 1-1, 3.86 in two starts for Arizona (under 2-0). D’backs’ first 5-inning record with him: 0-0-2

Dodgers are 45-8 in their last 53 games; under is 7-2-1 in their last ten. Arizona won three of last five home games; over is 4-3-1 in their last eight.

American League

New York @ Toronto
Gray is 0-2, 6.00 in his last two starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. New York lost his only start for them, 5-1 in Cleveland— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-1

Estrada is 0-5, 7.39 in his last 12 starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. Toronto is 4-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-13-3

New York lost five of last eight games; under is 6-2 in those eight games. Blue Jays are 6-3 in last nine games; over is 7-3 in their last ten games.

Indians @ Rays
Salazar is 1-0, 1.35 in his last three starts; under is 3-1 in his last four starts. Cleveland is 4-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-5-2

Snell is 0-1, 5.31 in his last four starts; under is 6-1 in his last seven. Rays are 1-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-8-1

Indians lost three of last four games; under is 7-2 in their last nine games. Cleveland is 8-10 in road series openers. Tampa Bay lost four of last five games, scoring total of four runs; under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 home games. Rays are 6-12 in home series openers.

Astros @ White Sox
Peacock is 6-0, 3.26 in his last seven starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Houston is 6-0 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-2

Rodon is 0-0, 1.88 in his last two starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five. White Sox are 1-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-5

Astros lost six of last eight games; over is 14-4 in their last 18 road games. Chicago is 5-20 in its last 25 games; over is 7-4 in their last 11 home games.

Orioles @ A’s
Miley is 2-2, 7.36 in his last five starts (over 3-1-1). Orioles are 6-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-12-2

Blackburn is 2-0, 2.25 in his last three starts (over 3-3-1). A’s are 2-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-1-2

Baltimore won eight of last 12 games; under is 8-2 in their last ten. Orioles are 6-12 in road series openers. Oakland lost eight of last 11 home games (under 8-2-1). A’s are 8-11 in home series openers.

Angels @ Mariners
Skaggs is 1-1, 2.35 in his last four starts (under 4-1-1). Angels are 1-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-3-2

Paxton is 7-0, 1.59 in his last seven starts (under 5-2). Seattle is 8-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-4-4

Angels are 7-3 in last ten games; under is 4-1 in their last five games. Halos are 8-10 in road series openers. Mariners won eight of last 11 games; over is 4-2 in their last six. Seattle is 1-5 in last six home series openers.

Interleague

Pirates @ Tigers
Cole is 3-0, 2.25 in his last five starts (under 4-1). Pirates are 6-0 in his last six road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-11-5

VerHagen allowed two runs in five IP (74 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 5-2 loss in Baltimore. Detroit’s first 5-inning record with him: 0-0-1

Tigers lost four of their last five games; under is 5-3-1 in their last nine. Pittsburgh won five of last seven games; under is 4-1 in their last five road games.

Twins @ Brewers
Gibson is 1-3, 6.75 in his last four starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight starts. Minnesota is 5-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-11-1

Davies is 5-1, 3.13 in his last seven starts, last three of which stayed under. Milwaukee is 6-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-6-5

Brewers lost their last four games; under is 9-2-1 in their last 12 games. Minnesota won five of last six games; under is 5-1-1 in their last seven games.

Royals @ Cardinals
Hammel is 1-1, 3.77 in his last five starts; his last six outings stayed under. Royals are 2-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-11-5

Lynn is 3-0, 1.15 in his last five starts; under is 6-0 in his last six. Cardinals are 5-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-9-2

St Louis is 11-5 in last 16 games; they scored 29 runs in last three games, all of which went over. Royals lost eight of last ten games; over is 6-1 in their last seven.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
Mia-Wsh: Straily 11-11; Roark 12-8
SD-Cin: Lamet 7-4; Castillo 3-5
NY-Phil: deGrom 14-8; Velasquez 5-9
LA-Az: Darvish 1-0 (9-13); Banda 1-1

American League
NY-Tor: Gray 0-1 (8-8 ); Estrada 10-13
Clev-TB: Salazar 6-7; Snell 4-9
Hst-Chi: Peacock 10-2; Rodon 2-5
Balt-A’s: Miley 12-11; Blackburn 4-3
LAA-Sea: Skaggs 3-3; Paxton 13-6

Interleague
Pitt-Det: Cole 15-8; VerHagen 0-1
Min-Mil: Gibson 9-10; Davies 14-8
KC-StL: Hammel 7-15; Lynn 11-11

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
Mia-Wsh: Straily 6-22; Roark 8-20
SD-Cin: Lamet 5-11; Castillo 2-8
NY-Phil: deGrom 7-22; Velasquez 5-14
LA-Az: Darvish 7-23; Banda 1-2

American League
NY-Tor: Gray 3-17; Estrada 9-23
Clev-TB: Salazar 6-13; Snell 3-13
Hst-Chi: Peacock 1-12; Rodon 3-7
Balt-A’s: Miley 9-23; Blackburn 1-7
LAA-Sea: Skaggs 4-6; Paxton 1-19

Interleague
Pitt-Det: Cole 8-23; VerHagen 0-1
Min-Mil: Gibson 5-19; Davies 8-22
KC-StL: Hammel 3-22; Lynn 6-22

Umpires

National League
Mia-Wsh: Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Bucknor games.
SD-Cin: Over is 7-3 in last ten Whitson games.
LA-Az: Over is 5-0-4 in last nine Wendelstedt games.

American League
NY-Tor: Five of last six Meals games went over total.
Hst-Chi: Last six Hernandez games stayed under total.

Interleague
Pitt-Det: Three of last four Diaz games went over.
Min-Mil: Over is 5-2-1 in last eight HGibson games.
KC-StL: Under is 9-5 in last fourteen Foster games.

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 62-47 AL, favorites -$219
AL @ NL– 60-55 NL, favorites -$477
Total: 117-107 AL, favorites -$696

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 56-52-3
AL @ NL: Over 62-48-6
Total: Over 118-100-9

Armadillosports.com

Thursday's Diamond Notes
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Dodgers (14-2 last 16, 45-8 last 53)

With the streaking Red Sox off, L.A. reclaims this label it has grown accustomed to. After picking up their 80th win last night in Phoenix, the Dodgers have still only lost consecutive games once since the All-Star break, a run that dates back over two months now. They'll attempt to avoid losing their first series since dropping two of three against the Nats on June 5-6 by sending Yu Darvish to the mound for his second start. The Japanese righty threw seven shutout innings against the Mets in his team debut to alleviate concerns that the Dodgers had traded for a pitcher who was no longer dominant, but he's still just 7-9 and only one start removed from giving up 10 runs due to tipping his pitches against Miami.

Snakes slugger Jake Lamb and leadoff hitter David Peralta have never faced Darvish, but Paul Goldschmidt, J.D. Martinez and Chris Ianetta are a combined 3-for26 against him. Rookie lefty Anthony Banda comes off his first major league win last Friday, but will be facing an offense that has hit 56 home runs against southpaws, the highest output in the league by a wide margin.

Coldest team: Royals (1-5 last six, 2-8 last 10)

Kansas City has gotten obliterated in the I-70 Series that comes to an end tonight. After losing consecutive games at home, the Royals got off to a quick 3-0 lead but ended up victimized by Yadier Molina's sixth-inning grand slam. In all, the Royals have been outscored 29-11 by the Cards and turn to Jason Hammel in order to try and avoid being swept. The nine-game winning streak they put together just weeks ago seems like a distant memory, especially with catcher Salvador Perez on the DL and Alex Gordon having been benched. Another loss here would drop Kansas City back to .500. Starter Jason Hammel has seen a lot of the Cards throughout his career but is just 4-6 with a 5.68. Molina and Randal Grichuk are hitting a combined .417 against him, combining for a homer and 10 RBI. Lance Lynn, who has pitched St. Louis to wins in five of his last six outings, has posted a 1.21 ERA in that stretch but has never beaten the Royals.

Hottest pitcher: Zach Davies, Brewers (13-5, 4.18 ERA)

Davies has won 13 of his last 15 decisions and has held opponents scoreless in 25 of his last 28-plus innings. Davies comes off a July where where he had a season-best 3.23 ERA but he's strangely been far superior on the road (7-0, 2.52 ERA) than he's been at Miller Park (6-5, 6.15). This will be the first time he's pitching against Minnesota, who is sending rookie Dietrich Enns to the mound for his big-league debut. Acquired in the deal that sent Jaime Garcia to the Yankees, Enns has compiled a 2.20 ERA in the minors this year, striking out a batter an inning.

Coldest pitcher: Wade Miley, Orioles (5-9, 5.51 ERA)

He hasn't lost in either of his last two outings, but has given up four or more earned runs in eight of 12 starts. He's completed six innings only once in that span. His ERA since joining the Birds last season tops 6.00, and he was 1-3 with a 7.32 ERA last August. Miley is pitching against the A's for the first time this season and is 3-5 with a 6.03 ERA on the road in '17. He leads all of baseball in highest rate of balls thrown (43.5 pct). Despite his struggles, the Orioles opened as a slight road favorite against Oakland, who will counter with minor league veteran Chris Smith, a 36-year-old still looking for his first victory since 2008.

Biggest OVER run: Blue Jays (7-3 last 10)

The Yankees played their version of home run derby against Nick Tepesch and then lit up Toronto's bullpen in yesterday's 11-5 win to even this series, setting up a fun rubber game as Sonny Gray looks to get his first victory since arriving from Oakland. The OVER is 5-2 in Marco Estrada's last seven starts, but he'll be making just his third start at Rodgers Center and has pitched much better there. There have been at least nine runs scored in nine of the last 12 involving the Jays, a run that began in style when Steve Pearce belted his first of two walk-off grand slams to close out July.

Biggest UNDER run: Rays (6-1 last seven, 23-12-2 last 37)

Losses in four of five have dragged Tampa Bay down to just one game over .500 despite the fact its starting pitching has been largely fantastic. Since winning three straight in Houston to open August, the Rays have only won once, been shut out three times and haven't managed more than two runs in a single outing. Last night's 8-2 loss to Boston snapped a six-game run of allowing three or fewer runs, so this recent power outage could wind up being remembered as a major missed opportunity if Tampa remains on the outside looking in the playoff race.

The Rays will run into locked in Indians starter Danny Salazar (4-5, 4.32), who is 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA since returning from the disabled list. He struck out a career-high 12 batters against the Yankees last time out and will be opposed by winless lefty Blake Snell (0-6, 4.98). Salazar will also be hoping for more run support since Cleveland has scored a combined three runs in his two no-decisions. Snell hasn't won despite not allowing more than three earned runs in any of his last five starts.

Matchup to watch: Angels at Mariners

Seattle has lost only one series since July 4, clawing back within 2.5 games of New York for the right to host the AL Wild Card game. The Mariners would be traveling to the Bronx for that winner-take-all clash if the season ended today, but their grip on the final available playoff spot is tenuous since six teams open Thursday's action within four games of them.

One of those on the chase are the Angels, who took two of three from Baltimore and open a nine-game road trip with four key contests at Safeco Field. L.A. swept the first three meetings in Anaheim, but has won just two of the last six times these AL West rivals have played. Mike Trout homered on his birthday and has reached safely in 22 of 23 games since returning from the disabled list coming out of the All-Star break.

The Halos are 8-4 over the past 12, fueled by Trout batting .443 with four homers and 12 RBI. He hasn't had much success against M's lefty James Paxton, who has held him to just three hits in 22 at-bats. Looking to move to 13-3 on the season, the Canadian ace can become the first pitcher in team history to win eight consecutive starts. He's surrendered just two runs in 11.2 innnings against L.A. this season.

Offensively, Seattle has managed to score at least four runs in 13 of 17 games and can really enhance its playoff chance with a strong homestand considering the Angels and Orioles are in town. Slugger Nelson Cruz hadn't hit multiple home runs in a game this season until August arrived but has put together two such contests over the past four days after going deep twice to fuel Wednesday's 6-3 win in Oakland.

Cruz homered for his only hit in 12 at-bats against Angels starter Tyler Skaggs, who will make his second appearance since returning from the DL. Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager and newly acquired first baseman Yonder Alonso are hitting a combined 16-for-32 (.500) against the lefty, which is yet another reason the Mariners open as Thursday's heaviest MLB favorite (-210).

Betcha didn’t know: Mets ace Jacob deGrom has never lost against the Phillies, coming in 5-0 with a 2.34 ERA over nine career starts where he's managed an impressive 5-to-1 K-to-walk ratio. August has historically been his worst month, a problem since he wasn't sharp last time out and he's just 5-5 with a 3.79 ERA this time of year. New York traded Jay Bruce to Cleveland last night, so it remains to be seen whether the slumping Mets can rally behind their best pitcher as a heavy favorite.

Biggest public favorite: Mets (-155) at Phillies

Biggest public underdog: Marlins (+150) at Nats

Biggest line move: Astros (-190 to -205) at White Sox

MLB Picks of the Day
By Zabo Jones
Bangthebook.com

MLB Favorite of the day: Cleveland Indians -142

The Indians and the Rays are going to be playing in Tampa Bay with Danny Salazar and Blake Snell starting. While the Indians have a pretty comfortable lead in the central, they have been struggling quite a bit in the past week, with several blown leads. They also acquired Jay Bruce which should help them solidify their outfield, but it remains to be clear how much help that will offer. The Rays meanwhile have been fighting to stay in the wild card in the American League. It’s a very tight race between them, Seattle and Kansas City.

Danny Salazar has spent a large portion of the season injured. Since returning from injury he has been terrific however. In his 3 starts since returning he has pitched 20 innings, and allowed only 3 runs. He has also struck out 28 batters in that time while walking only 5 batters. It’s hard to say if Salazar is going to continue this hot streak, but he’s certainly looked healthy since his return, so I feel pretty good about him.

Blake Snell is going to be starting for the Rays in Tampa Bay tonight. In his 14 starts this season Snell still hasn’t actually recorded a win, not that means all that much. He has an ERA of 4.98 and an xFIP of 5.08. In the past when Snell has been successful it’s because he’s been able to strike batters out so effortlessly. He has always had a pretty bad walk problem, but it was mitigated by his ability to prevent the ball from being put in play. This season he has continued to have the walk problem, walking a little over 5 guys per nine innings, while losing the strikeouts. If that continues, I don’t think Snell has a great chance of bouncing back this season.

MLB Underdog of the Day: Toronto Blue Jays +128

The Blue Jays and Yankees are playing in Toronto with Marco Estrada and Sonny Gray starting this season. The Blue Jays look to be just about out of the wild card race unless they can put together a hot streak, while the Yankees are still caught in a stuck divisional race. The Yankees still have a real chance to catch the Red Sox, and we may even get some fun rivalry moments this season in their division race.

Sonny Gray was one of the biggest pieces moved at the deadline, and he probably went for a lot less than most A’s fans were hoping he would be. Gray has been having arguably his best career season with an ERA of 3.41 and an xFIP of 3.32. What’s sometimes hard to figure out for me is how good is Sonny Gray in reality? Projections don’t seem to have the highest thoughts of him with Steamer projecting him to have a 4.04 ERA from this point on in the season. I recognize that he has upside, in part because of the ability to get groundballs, and strike batters out. I think Gray will ultimately be a very good pitcher, who maybe didn’t deserve as much attention as he has garnered.

Marco Estrada is going to be starting for the Blue Jays. Estrada has not had a very good season, and has probably been one of the most disappointing parts of the Blue Jays season. He has an ERA of 5.12 and an xFIP of 4.83. What’s most surprising to me is that with these stats he has been worth almost 2 wins per fangraphs already this season. Where Estrada has struggled the most, is allowing a high volume of homeruns, at 1.5 per nine innings. This is especially problematic given the fact that he allows so many flyballs. I’m not sure if Estrada will improve this season, but I still like the Jays in this game largely as a value play.

MLB Over/Under of the day: Arizona Diamondbacks/Los Angeles Dodgers Under 9

The Dodgers and the Diamondbacks are going to be playing in Arizona with Yu Darvish and Anthony Banda starting. While it looks like the Diamondbacks are going to make the playoffs, I don’t think anybody can separate their really good season from the Dodgers historic season. They are going to potentially pass the Seattle Mariners record for most wins in a season at 116. While the Diamondbacks have been great, it’s hard to be optimistic about any team’s future that shares a division with the Dodgers.

Yu Darvish is going to be starting for the Dodgers. He has an ERA of 3.81 and an xFIP of 3.72, but it’s worth noting that he has been pitching in Texas which is a much more hitter friendly environment than Dodger Field. Chase Field however is quite similar to Texas, so it’s not too relevant for this particular game. At times, I feel like Darvish is often a little bit underappreciated by the general public, because he’s been truly terrific in the most recent seasons. This season he has cooled off a bit, but that may not matter much because of how durable he’s been this year. Darvish is great at striking batters out, and doesn’t walk a high volume of batters. While he doesn’t get a huge amount of groundballs, he does a pretty good job preventing great contact. Ultimately, I like the under in this game largely because I think Darvish is going to be amazing for the rest of the season with the Dodgers. Grandal’s framing will help him, especially as he’s leaving one of the worst framing teams in baseball to the best. The defense will help him as well, but maybe even more importantly is that he’ll have more confidence knowing he will often be pitching with a lead.

MLB Picks & Analysis August
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Miami at Washington (-150); Total: 9.5

My worlds collide tonight with two pitchers that I’ve talked a lot about this season. Dan Straily takes the hill for the Marlins and Tanner Roark takes the mound for the Nationals. Straily is a guy to fade right now as far as I’m concerned, but the market doesn’t seem to agree today. Straily had a decent start against the Braves last time out to lower his ERA to 3.77. He’s actually made two pretty good starts back-to-back. My concerns with Straily are related to his strikeout rate, which has gradually gone down from month to month this season.

He did strike out seven Braves in 5.2 innings of work in his last outing, but the Marlins offense wasn’t much help. Straily has gotten back to his very extreme fly balls ways since the start of July and that’s important because he already has a .275 BABIP against with a 33.8 percent GB%. He can ill afford to induce more worm-burners, especially with his strikeout rate going down.

Tanner Roark shows some signs of positive regression with a 4.82 ERA, a 4.19 FIP, and a 4.34 xFIP. His 64.3 percent LOB% is the lowest in baseball among qualified starters, which is why my support goes to him more often than not. Roark has mixed in a few more strikeouts lately, but he still hasn’t had much luck with stranding runners. From June 4 to August 4, Roark made 10 starts. In those 10 starts, he posted a 5.88 ERA because of a 58.7 percent LOB%. Perhaps Roark doesn’t get it turned around this year, but he’ll be a guy, a la Mike Leake, that I’ll be looking to back next season when his LOB% normalizes and he gets back to being a very effective pitcher.

I understand the move today, given that nobody wants to lay -175 with a guy like Roark, but I do think we’re at the point where the value side looks like the Nationals, if you’re willing to lay the dollar fitty.

Cleveland (-140) at Tampa Bay; Total: 8

It isn’t a very good MLB card today for betting purposes. This game is kind of a microcosm of that. Danny Salazar takes the mound for the Indians and Blake Snell goes for the Rays. Snell was supposed to be bumped from the rotation, but has already made his way back into the mix with Alex Cobb on the DL. Salazar has been outstanding since he came back off of the disabled list and the Rays are a team that swings and misses a ton. This should be a good matchup for him.

That being said, the Indians offense is back to being in a shell. Nobody’s talking about it much, but Jose Ramirez has a 65 wRC+ since the All-Star Break. Edwin Encarnacion is in a major tailspin. Jason Kipnis is back hitting leadoff for some inexplicable reason. A lot of Indians have struggled at once this season and it has led to a lot of inconsistency. The benefit in this spot is that the Indians are much stronger against lefties than righties right now, with guys like Austin Jackson and Brandon Guyer playing every day due to injuries to Michael Brantley and Lonnie Chisenhall. Righties own a .272/.370/.473 slash line against Snell on the season, with all 11 home runs that the 24-year-old has allowed.

Danny Salazar has made three starts since coming off of the DL. He has 28 strikeouts against five walks in 20 innings of work. He has allowed three runs on eight hits. He’s been absolutely phenomenal since coming back and draws a very good matchup here against a struggling Rays offense that swings and misses a ton. The Indians bullpen is a bit of a question mark right now with Bryan Shaw’s struggles and Andrew Miller on the DL, so it will be up to Salazar to work deep into the game once again.

The only way to approach this game in my mind is to take the Indians. The line is a bit chalky. The total also seems a little low, considering Salazar’s HR/FB% problem this season and the righties that will be stacked against Snell. Salazar has also had some issues in the first inning and the first time through the lineup. With a total of 8, a first five over play may carry some value since it will be such a low number.

Kansas City at St. Louis (-145); Total: 8.5

It appears that the Royals peaked, because now they’ve fallen off the pace. They haven’t gotten a big lift from any of the players that they traded for and they can’t gain any ground on the Indians, who could have really put a stranglehold on the division with a win yesterday to push the lead to five with two games in hand.

Tonight, it will be Jason Hammel up against Lance Lynn. Hammel has a 4.73 ERA with a 4.21 FIP and a 5.05 xFIP. It’s not good in a season like this to have a 4.73 ERA with just an 8.9 percent HR/FB%. Hammel’s seen a significant drop in his strikeout rate going from the NL to the AL, which has lowered his LOB% from 76 percent to 70.4 percent. He isn’t giving up a lot of home runs, but a .305 BABIP with the Royals defense would seem to signal some problems with his command.

Over his last six starts, though, Hammel hasn’t allowed more than three runs in an outing. He’s done a pretty good job of keeping his team in the game and has minimized the damage for the most part. The problem is that the Royals aren’t really winning those toss-up games lately. Still, we have to respect the fact that he has battled lately and hasn’t had a big blow-up since July 1. That July 1 start is actually the only time since May 29 that he has allowed more than three runs in an outing.

This may not be the best lineup for Lance Lynn to face. Lynn has held righties to a .177/.245/.333 slash line this season with a 74/16 K/BB ratio. Lefties, however, are batting .235/.335/.454 with 13 home runs and a 40/33 K/BB ratio. The Royals rely a lot on left-handed sticks plus Whit Merrifield, who is having a great season against pitchers from both sides.

I think there’s some value on the Royals tonight and they probably stand out as the best underdog gamble on the board for me.

Royals, Cardinals clash Thursday
By: StatFox.com

Both the Royals and the Cardinals will be hoping to improve their chances of making the postseason with a victory on Thursday.

Kansas City has been one of the more inconsistent teams this season, as the Royals seem to always counter a nice winning streak with an equally long losing streak. The Royals are currently four games behind the Indians in the AL Central, but they’re only one game behind the Mariners for the second wild card spot in the American League. They can easily make the postseason this year, but they need to start winning games more consistently. As for the Cardinals, their only chance of making the playoffs is by winning the NL Central. That is also very possible for St. Louis, as the team is only 1.5 games behind the struggling Cubs. Expect both of the teams in this series to play with a ton of intensity. The starters in this Thursday night game are set to be RHP Jason Hammel (5-9, 4.73 ERA, 96 K) for Kansas City and RHP Lance Lynn (10-6, 3.12 ERA, 114 K) for St. Louis. One trend that stands out when looking at this one is the fact that the Royals are 30-22 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. They play up to their competition and will be hoping to earn another victory here.

The Royals are trying to get back to the postseason, but they really need to make sure they finish off this series strong. Jason Hammel will be on the mound for Kansas City in this one and Hammel is coming off of six solid starts in a row. Hammel has allowed three or fewer earned runs in six straight games and the Royals can’t expect much more than that out of the righty. If he can put in a quality start on Thursday then they should be ecstatic. On offense, the Royals will need both 1B Eric Hosmer (.314 BA, 18 HR, 61 RBI) and OF Lorenzo Cain (.287 BA, 12 HR, 36 RBI) to come through in this game. Both guys have been good this season, but Hosmer is actually in the middle of a career year right now. He has never hit better than .302, so it would be huge for him to stay where he is now. As for Cain, his career average is .287 and he is at that number this season. Cain has, however, gotten his average up from .274 to .287 over the past 10 games. He is really seeing the ball well.

The Cardinals are hoping to win their eighth in 11 games on Thursday, and they definitely have the edge on the mound in this one. Lynn has been brilliant for St. Louis this season, and he is coming into this one after having allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his past seven games. If he can turn in another performance like that then the Cardinals would have to feel very confident in their ability to win this one. On offense, 1B Matt Carpenter (.253 BA, 15 HR, 55 RBI) is a guy that really has it going right now. Over the past four games. Carpenter is 6-for-13 with two doubles, a homer, and seven RBI. If he can keep it up then that would be big for this St. Louis team. Another guy that needs to be mentioned here is OF Jose Martinez (.294, 9 HR, 26 RBI). The 29-year-old has been a revelation for the Cardinals this season, and he has three multi-hit games and two homers over the past four contests. The team is hoping he can keep it going moving forward.

Thursday MLB Betting Preview
Vegasinsider.com

L.A Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Odds: L.A (-182) vs. Arizona (+163); Total set at 9

These two NL West rivals have split the first two games of this three-game set as both sides will be looking for the series victory tonight. At 80-33 SU, the loss in the series opener was a rarity for L.A, who now turn to their prized deadline acquisition in Yu Darvish tonight.

Darvish was brilliant in his Dodgers debut last week as he had 10 K's and only gave up three hits in seven innings of work. L.A won that game 6-0 over the Mets and as heavy favorites tonight, they'd love a similar result.

L.A was able to rally late last night to get the 3-2 win to even up this series, continuing to find different ways to avoid losing streaks.

It was the first time the road team has won a game between these two in five meetings, and with Darvish on the hill tonight and the Dodgers upward of -180 favorites, there are plenty of bettors out there who believe L.A will make it two in a row.

According to VegasInsider.com, just under 70% of the ML wagers have come on the Dodgers tonight and all that action has pushed their number up from it opening in the -160 range.

But while the support continues to find it's way to the Dodgers tonight, I'm looking at tonight's total in this series finale and find it a much more attractive betting option.

The first two games of this series cashed 'under' tickets, and with a strong likelihood of these two NL West rivals meeting in the playoffs (should Arizona win the Wildcard game), chances are we see a more playoff-type feel to Dodgers/Diamondbacks games the rest of the year.

However, Arizona is one of the best hitter parks in all of baseball, and to see those same betting percentage numbers at VegasInsider.com show more than 90% on an 'under' for a Diamondbacks home game against one of the best offenses in all of baseball is really surprising.

Now, obviously having Darvish on the hill for L.A plays into that overwhelming support for the 'under,' but I don't believe Darvish will come close to duplicating the success he had in his first start with L.A, especially against an offense like the D-Backs have.

Arizona puts up 5.71 runs per home game this year and they know they'll likely need all of that average to beat the Dodgers. With Arizona's starter Anthony Banda making his third career MLB start tonight, his D-Backs teammates know they'll need to give him all the help they can if they want a chance to win.

L.A's own offense should make things difficult for the lefty Banda as L.A is on a 10-1 SU run on the road against southpaws, scoring 5.49 runs per road game the entire year against lefties. The high-powered offense the Dodgers have can't be overly thrilled with the fact that they've only scored three times in each of the first two games, and tonight's contest gives them an opportunity to get the bats sizzling hot again as they return home.

So with the ball-park being very hitter friendly and the majority of bettors backing a third straight 'under' in this series because Darvish is back on the hill, I've got no quarrels about going against the grain here and taking the high side of this total.

Arizona is on a 4-0-1 O/U run after scoring two runs or less in their last outing, they are 3-0-1 O/U during their last four Game 3's of a series, and we've got a HP ump in Hunter Wendelstedt who's seen five of his last six games behind the dish finish at or above the total (4-1-1 O/U).

L.A's offense can explode at any moment, and with it being very tough for Darvish to top his debut performance last week, I think we see one of those shootout-type games in Arizona this evening.

Best Bet: Over 9