MLB Betting News and Notes Thursday, August 24th, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Marlins @ Phillies
Worley is 2-1, 2.42 in his last four starts (under 3-0-1). Miami is 2-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-3-2

Thompson is 1-1, 6.30 in two starts this season (over 1-1). Phillies won his only home start— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-1

Marlins won nine of last 12 games; over is 3-1 in their last four games. Philly is 4-9 in its last 13 games; over is 7-3 in their last ten.

Dodgers @ Pirates
Ryu is 1-0, 1.13 in his last four starts (under 3-1). Dodgers are 2-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-9-3

Kuhl is 3-1, 3.52 in his last four starts; under is 5-1-1 in his last seven. Pirates are 7-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-9-3

Dodgers won eight of last ten games; under is 12-6-1 in their last 19 road games. Pittsburgh lost eight of its last 11 games; seven of their last eight games went over.

Diamondbacks @ Mets
Ray comes off DL after getting drilled in head by a line drive; he is 1-1, 3.86 in his last four starts. Over is 5-2-2 in his last nine starts. Arizona is 7-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-5-7

Montero is 1-0, 2.25 in his last two starts; under is 7-1 in his last eight. Mets are 2-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-7-2

Arizona lost six of its last nine games; over is 6-4 in their last ten road games. Mets lost eight of their last 10 games; under is 9-4-1 in their last 14 home games.

Cubs @ Reds
Arrieta is 3-0, 2.41 in his last three starts; over is 4-1-2 in his last seven. Cubs are 9-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-7-3

Romano is 1-3, 6.38 in his last four starts (under 5-4). Reds are 1-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-6

Cubs won eight of last ten games; over is 7-2 in their last nine. Cincinnati lost its last three games; their last seven home games went over.

Padres @ Cardinals
Perdomo is 1-3, 6.38 in his last four starts; over is 5-1-1 in his last seven. San Diego is 2-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-8-4

Martinez is 3-0, 3.43 in his last three starts; over is 8-2 in his last ten. St Louis is 8-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-11-2

San Diego lost seven of last ten road games; over is 7-2 in their last nine. Cardinals lost six of last nine games; over is 11-2-1 in their last 14 games.

American League

Red Sox @ Indians
Sale is 3-1, 2.27 in his last seven starts; under is 8-2 in his last ten. Boston is 10-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-5-7

Bauer is 5-0, 2.03 in his last six starts; under is 4-0-1 in his last five. Cleveland is 7-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-8-3

Red Sox are 16-4 in last 20 games; under is 5-2 in their last seven games. Cleveland is 9-4 in its last 13 games; under is 8-2 in their last ten home games.

New York @ Detroit
Garcia is 0-1, 6.89 in three starts for New York (under 3-0). NY split his two road starts for them— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-2-1

Fulmer is 0-5, 6.59 in his last five starts; three of his last four stayed under. Detroit is 7-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-10-3

New York won seven of last nine games; over is 4-2 in their last six games. Detroit lost ten of last 12 games; over is 8-2-1 in their last 11 home games.

Blue Jays @ Rays
Happ is 3-1, 3.04 in his last four starts; under is 4-1 in his last five starts. Toronto 3-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-10

Cobb is 0-2, 9.00 in his last two starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight. Tampa Bay is 5-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-8-3

Toronto lost five of its last six road games; under is 8-5 in their last 13 games. Tampa Bay is 4-13 in its last 17 games; under is 14-5-1 in their last 20 home games.

Twins @ White Sox
Berrios is 1-2, 5.47 in his last five starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. Minnesota is lost his last six road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-5-2

Holland is 1-4, 10.89 in his last five starts (over 4-1). White Sox are 3-9 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-13-3

Twins are 13-5 in last 18 games; over is 7-4-2 in their last 13. Chicago lost eight of last 12 games; under is 7-2 in their last nine home games.

Rangers @ Angels
Perez is 3-0, 4.05 in his last three starts; over is 7-4 in his last 11 starts. Texas is 3-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-12-3

Scribner is 1-0, 6.00 in two starts this year (over 1-1), both of which were at home (Halos 2-0). Angels’ first 5-inning record with him: 1-1

Texas won nine of last 13 games; over is 6-2 in their last eight games. Angels won ten of last 13 games; six of their last nine games stayed under.

Interleague

Nationals @ Astros
Strasburg is 1-1, 1.80 in his last three starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Washington is 9-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-9-1

Keuchel is 2-0, 0.66 in his last two starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Houston is 5-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-8-3

Nationals won six of last nine games; under is 11-0-1 in their last 12. Houston won five of last eight games; their last six games stayed under.

Rockies @ Royals
Marquez is 1-1, 8.10 in his last two starts; under is 5-0-1 in his last six starts. Colorado is 5-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-4-3

Juris is 2-0, 1.93 in his last two starts (over 5-2-1). Royals are 3-0 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-4

Rockies are 3-9 in last 12 games; under is 6-1-1 in their last eight road games. Royals are 7-3 in last ten games; over is 8-4 in their last 12 home games.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
Mia-Phil: Worley 6-3; Thompson 1-1
LA-Pitt: Ryu 10-8; Kuhl 10-15
Az-NY: Ray 12-8; Montero 4-7
Chi-Cin: Arrieta 14-11; Romano 3-6
SD-StL: Perdomo 9-13; Martinez 13-12

American League
Bos-Clev: Sale 18-7; Bauer 13-11
NY-Det: Garcia 2-1 (9-9); Fulmer 11-12
Tor-TB: Happ 7-11; Cobb 11-12
Min-Chi: Berrios 11-7; Holland 7-17
Tex-LA: Perez 10-14; Scribner 2-0

Interleague
Wsh-Hst: Strasburg 15-6; Keuchel 13-3
Col-KC: Marquez 13-8; Junis 6-2

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
Mia-Phil: Worley 5-9; Thompson 0-2
LA-Pitt: Ryu 7-18; Kuhl 5-25
Az-NY: Ray 8-20; Montero 3-11
Chi-Cin: Arrieta 7-25; Romano 3-9
SD-StL: Perdomo 9-22; Martinez 11-25

American League
Bos-Clev: Sale 2-25; Bauer 4-24
NY-Det: Garcia 6-21; Fulmer 8-23
Tor-TB: Happ 8-10; Cobb 4-23
Min-Chi: Berrios 5-18; Holland 7-24
Tex-LA: Perez 11-24; Scribner 0-2

Interleague
Wsh-Hst: Strasburg 4-21; Keuchel 4-16
Col-KC: Marquez 5-21; Junis 3-8

Umpires

National League
Mia-Phil: Under is 4-1 in last five Baker games.
LA-Pitt: Last four Emmel games stayed under.
Az-NY: Under is 8-2 in last ten Hudson games.
Chi-Cin: Under is 6-3 in last nine Hamari games.
SD-StL: Home team won 8 of last 10 Little games.

American League
Bos-Clev: Over is 6-3 in last nine Fletcher games.
NY-Det: Underdogs won 11 of last 13 Torres games.
Tor-TB: Over is 11-2-1 in last 14 Reynolds games.
Min-Chi: Four of last five Gibson games stayed under.
Tex-LA: Four of last six Johnson games stayed under.

Interleague
Wsh-Hst: Over is 8-5 in last thirteen Whitson games.
Col-KC: Under is 5-2 in Ortiz games this season.

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 76-53 AL, favorites +$357
AL @ NL– 69-61 NL, favorites +$296
Total: 138-121 AL, favorites +$653

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 64-64-3
AL @ NL: Over 69-55-7
Total: Over 133-119-10

Armadillosports.com

Thursday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Royals (7-3 last 10) vs. Rockies

Kansas City is attempting to put together some late-season magic and capture a playoff berth after knocking off Colorado in the first two games of its interleague series. The Royals walked-off past the Rockies on Wednesday, 6-4 on Eric Hosmer’s three-run home run to pull within a half-game of the Twins for the second Wild Card position in the American League.

The Royals will go for the sweep behind right-hander Jake Junis this afternoon as he has been solid in his last two starts. Junis beat the Mariners and Athletics as a short favorite, while allowing three earned runs in 14 innings of work. The Rockies have been atrocious on the road since the All-Star break, going 4-12 in their past 16 games away from Coors Field.

Coldest team: Tigers (1-8 last nine) vs. Yankees

It’s been a disaster in Detroit the last two nights for the Tigers, getting outscored by New York, 23-6. The Tigers have given up at least eight runs in five of the last eight contests, while dropping seven of their past nine games at Comerica Park.

Detroit is looking to avoid its third home sweep of the season as Michael Fulmer takes the mound. Fulmer is winless in his last five starts, in spite of allowing one unearned run in seven innings of a 3-0 defeat to the Dodgers in his past outing. The right-hander was roughed up by the Yankees the last time he faced them in late July by giving up seven runs in six innings of a 7-3 setback as a +200 underdog.

Hottest pitcher: Jake Arrieta, Cubs (13-8, 3.63 ERA)

The 2015 National League Cy Young winner slumped in May, while going through a roller coaster in June and July. However, the right-hander is picking things up at the right time by winning his last three starts, while yielding two earned runs or less in seven straight outings. Arrieta hasn’t topped the 100-pitch mark in his last six starts, as he has tossed at least six innings in each of those outings. In two starts against the Reds this season, Arrieta owns a 2-0 record, while giving up just one hit in seven scoreless innings of a 6-2 triumph in early July.

Coldest pitcher: Derek Holland, White Sox (6-13, 6.28 ERA)

It has been a rough first season on the South Side for the southpaw, as Chicago owns a dreadful 1-10 mark in his past 11 starts. The good news is that lone victory came as a +220 home underdog to Houston earlier this month. The bad news is Holland has been tagged for seven earned runs in each of his past two starts, while giving up three earned runs and recording one out in relief against Minnesota on Monday. Holland is winless in three starts against the Twins this season, as the lefty has allowed 17 runs in those appearances.

Biggest OVER run: Blue Jays (4-1 last five)

Toronto went deep six times in Wednesday’s 7-6 triumph at Tampa Bay to snap a four-game losing streak. The Jays have allowed six runs in three consecutive games, but have also scored at least five runs in each of the past three contests. Toronto sends out former Miami right-hander Tom Koehler to the mound for his Blue Jays’ debut in today’s series finale, as the veteran owns a 1-4 record and 7.52 road ERA this season.

Biggest UNDER run: Astros (6-0 last six)

It’s a matchup of star hurlers at Minute Maid Park in the finale between Washington and Houston as Stephen Strasburg squares off against Dallas Keuchel. The first two games have finished UNDER the total, as the Astros are coming off a 6-1 blowout of the Nationals on Wednesday. Houston has limited its past six opponents to four runs or fewer, while the Astros are 5-2 in Keuchel’s seen home starts this season.

Matchup to watch: Red Sox vs. Indians

Boston’s pitching stepped up the last two games against the defending American League champions by allowing a total of two runs. The Red Sox go for the series victory at Progressive Field after getting swept out of the playoffs by Cleveland in 2016, while maintaining a 4½-game advantage over the Yankees in the AL East.

Following terrific pitching performances by Doug Fister and Drew Pomeranz, the Red Sox turn to Cy Young favorite Chris Sale on Thursday. Sale is coming off his fifth loss of the season in a 4-3 defeat to the Yankees as a hefty -260 favorite last weekend, as the Sox lost for the first time in his previous six starts. The lanky left-hander put together his worst performance of the season against Cleveland earlier this month at Fenway Park by allowing seven earned runs in five innings, but Boston won in extra innings, 12-10.

Trevor Bauer counters for Cleveland, as the right-hander has stepped it up since not escaping the first inning in a 7-3 loss at Oakland last month. In Bauer’s past six starts, the Indians have won five times, while allowing one earned run or fewer four times in this span. Bauer dominated the Red Sox in a make-up game at Fenway on August 14 by striking out 11 batters in a 7-3 triumph.

Betcha didn’t know: The Angels lost in extra innings on Wednesday to the Rangers, but Los Angeles has responded well in series finales. Since blowing a six-run ninth inning lead in an 11-10 loss at Toronto on July 30, the Angels have posted a 5-1 record in their past six series finales, while not losing consecutive games since August 7.

Biggest public favorite: Cardinals (-225) vs. Padres

Biggest public underdog: Rockies (+100) at Royals

Biggest line move: Nationals (+135 to +`125) at Astros

MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

New York at Detroit (-110); Total: 9

Robbie Ray returns for the Diamondbacks, so we’ll avoid the early game and Vance Worley and Jake Thompson are starting between the Phillies and Mets, so we’ll bypass that one as well. Our focus shifts to Motown, where the Yankees and Tigers will close up their early-week series. Jaime Garcia opened around a -115 favorite but the market has spoken and the news is not good for Yankees fans and backers. Detroit is now a -110 favorite at Comerica Park with Michael Fulmer on the mound.

I understand what’s happening with this line move. The Tigers have fared very well against southpaws this season and Garcia has not been good with the Yankees. He has a 6.32 ERA with a 5.88 FIP and a 5.00 xFIP in three starts covering 15.2 innings of work. Garcia has allowed 12 runs, 11 earned, on 17 hits in 15.2 innings with a 13/10 K/BB ratio. I wouldn’t want to back a guy like that either, especially against a Tigers lineup with good splits in matchups like this.

Michael Fulmer, despite pitching through injury, is having a solid season with a 3.60 ERA, a 3.50 FIP, and a 4.16 xFIP. I have some pretty significant concerns, though. For one thing, he is pitching through tendonitis. For another thing, his strikeout rate has dropped in a big way. His FIP is actually lower than last season because he’s cut his home run rate down, but his ERA is higher because of a huge drop in LOB%. Fulmer came back from some downtime on August 14 and gave up five runs on seven hits in five innings. Then he allowed just one unearned run to the Dodgers on August 19 over seven innings. I don’t really know what to expect.

The reason I won’t be backing the Tigers here is because this is a getaway day game for a team with absolutely nothing to play for. The Yankees have pressure from below in the Wild Card race. The Tigers aren’t likely to get up for games like this. I’m not sure how much character is left on a team with a bad manager and a bunch of aging players that know that they are basically in roster purgatory. After getting trucked last night, I don’t know how emotionally and mentally invested the Tigers will be today.

I certainly understand and appreciate the line move, but I won’t be playing this one. If the line got higher, I’d consider the Yankees, but it’s not a strong consideration right now.

Colorado at Kansas City (-110); Total: 9

German Marquez will battle it out with Jake Junis in the series finale at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals walked off the Rockies last night and will look for the sweep tonight. Marquez is a guy that I’m looking to back as the Rockies struggle. He has a 4.24 ERA with a 4.01 FIP and a 4.21 xFIP in his 119 innings this season. Most of his peripherals fall in the average range and I do like the fact that he’s put up numbers like this in what amounts to his rookie season while pitching so often at Coors Field. A lot of the guys that can do significant damage in the Kansas City lineup are left-handed and Marquez has good splits there with a .306 wOBA against. He’s allowed a .335 wOBA to righties and they are slugging 110 points higher.

The biggest difference between Marquez at home and on the road is in the slugging percentage department. That is hardly a surprise given the thin air and good hitting environment in Colorado. Marquez has a .479 SLG allowed at home and a .384 on the road in a sample size of 264 and 247 batters, respectively. Eleven of the 15 home runs that he has allowed have come at home. He’s fared very well the first time through the lineup, holding the opposition to a .200/.259/.309 slash. The second and third times through, he has struggled. Anecdotally, that leads me to believe that teams facing him for the first time will struggle. The Royals have not seen him in his young career.

Jake Junis, who goes by Jakob on Fangraphs for those looking for more insight, has a 4.99 ERA with a 5.39 FIP and a 5.45 xFIP in eight starts and four relief outings. Junis seems to have decent stuff, but putting it all together has been a problem thus far. He was skipped last weekend by the Royals, but did give up four runs in mop up relief against the Indians, so he hasn’t started in 10 days. His last two starts since getting sent back to the minors have been strong, with three runs allowed on eight hits in 14 innings of work with a 9/0 K/BB ratio.

Marquez, though, is a guy I want to back and a guy I’m comfortable with backing on the road. I think we can see the respect that Marquez gets in the line that is sitting out there. I agree. I’ll be on the Rockies today.

Boston (-165) at Cleveland; Total: 7

The Red Sox have taken two of three from the Indians in this series, but I have to say, I haven’t been impressed with the Red Sox offense. Their hitters have taken a lot of bad swings. Defensively, Boston has played extremely well and that has been a big difference in this series. This ALDS preview has been pretty entertaining, but it comes to a close tonight with AL Cy Young Award favorite Chris Sale up against Trevor Bauer.

A few things about this game. For starters, the Indians are better equipped to face lefties right now. Lonnie Chisenhall, Michael Brantley, and Jason Kipnis are all left-handed hitters that are on the DL. Carlos Santana hits better left-handed, though he may be available today. Also, it’s hard to ignore how well the Indians have hit Chris Sale in the past, right? Only the Tigers have hit more home runs off of Sale than the Indians, but they have 136 more plate appearances. Sale has a 4.44 career ERA against the Tribe. Now, the Indians battered him in 2013 and 2016, but struggled in 2014 and 2015, which is why using pitcher vs. team stats isn’t a great barometer at all. The Indians got seven off of Sale in five innings at Fenway Park earlier this season.

Current Indians hitters have a .272/.350/.422 slash against Sale in 203 plate appearances. That’s not big enough to be statistically significant. It is interesting that 37 of those plate appearances are from Austin Jackson, who is batting .057/.108/.086 in this split.

The reason I bring this up is that you’re going to find people that justify an Indians ticket or an Indians play based on how they’ve done against Sale in the past. To me, the sample sizes just aren’t big enough to really matter. It isn’t even a consideration on my end. I’m handicapping this game for what it’s worth as an individual event.

Sale is the best pitcher in the AL this season. Corey Kluber is fairly close, but Sale is still ahead of him in my estimation. He mows through lineups. Trevor Bauer has found some positive regression, finally, as his BABIP has dropped about 20 points over the last little while. It’s still really high at .343, but his 4.50 ERA is inching towards his 3.87 FIP and 3.61 xFIP.

Since July 27, Bauer has a 100 percent LOB%. He’s allowed five solo home runs and the bullpen let in a run. He’s made five starts and one relief appearance and has allowed 36 hits, but the only hits that have scored runs are the home runs. So, Bauer technically hasn’t allowed a base runner to score via a ball in play. He has 38 strikeouts against seven walks in that span, so he has helped himself out by not walking anybody. I see something like that and I get scared.

We’ve already seen some Indians money hit the market. I won’t be invested in this game, but it’s important to look at it from all angles. The Indians do have a knack for getting one hit off of guys like Doug Fister and then blasting a guy like Chris Sale two days later. I don’t have evidence for that, but I’ve watched pretty much every game over the last several years. It just seems to work out that way, so it won’t surprise me here, but I won’t have money on it.

Washington at Houston (-140); Total: 8

A pretty big move on the total is the most notable thing about this game. Stephen Strasburg and Dallas Keuchel get together in Houston to duke it out, but the market seems to love the over. This number opened 7.5 and has hit 8.5 before coming back down to 8 with juice on the over. Strasburg is having a fine season with a 3.24/3.13/3.47 pitcher slash and 149 strikeouts in 127.2 innings of work. He’s been really strong and has, for the most part, stayed relatively healthy. Of course, he’s just coming off of a DL stint. Strasburg was out from July 23 to August 19 with an injury. He came back and worked six solid innings against the Padres, but this will be a much stiffer test.

Dallas Keuchel is a bit of a regression candidate. You don’t see guys with a 66.2 percent GB% carrying around a .255 BABIP against. You also rarely see an 83.5 percent LOB% with that type of batted ball distribution and a 21.4 percent K%. To me, it looks like the market is anticipating some of that regression from Keuchel and has reacted accordingly, without having to invest too heavily in Strasburg in just his second start back.

Keuchel has allowed 10 HR in 101.1 innings and those don’t count towards BABIP, but still. He’s gotten extremely fortunate with balls in play and leverage situations. He’s certainly a guy that I would look to fade in some way. The league-wide BABIP on ground balls is .241. Keuchel’s BABIP against on ground balls is .207.

I like Washington today, despite my concerns with backing guys coming off of injuries. We’ve seen aces shut down the Astros lineup in recent weeks and Strasburg fits that mold.

Astros host Nationals
By: StatFox.com

Two of the league’s best teams meet in Houston on Thursday, as the Nationals will be taking on the Astros at Minute Maid Park.

The Nationals and the Astros have both had some very impressive seasons thus far, as each team leads their division by a wide margin heading into this one. This matchup could very well be a preview of the World Series later this year, but it’s obviously a little too early to start thinking about that. This game will, however, be a rather intense regular season matchup. That is because there will be two absolute studs on the mound here. The Nationals will be sending RHP Stephen Strasburg (10-4, 3.24 ERA, 149 K) to the mound on Thursday, and he’ll be going up against LHP Dallas Keuchel (11-2, 2.58 ERA, 86 K) for the Astros. Both pitchers are capable of completely shutting down their opponents, so it wouldn’t be surprising if this game was extremely low scoring. Keuchel has, however, struggled a bit since coming back from an injury. His most recent outing was his second good start since being taken off of the disabled list.

Stephen Strasburg will be on the mound for the Nationals on Thursday and this is only Strasburg’s second start since being activated off of the disabled list. Strasburg pitched six innings against the Padres on Aug. 19 and the righty allowed two earned runs in that outing. Strasburg struck out eight batters in that game, so it seems like his stuff wasn’t lost after an elbow injury. The Nationals will need him to be ready to go in this one, as they’re facing one of the most explosive offenses in baseball. It is, however, important that Washington does not force him to do too much. The team can’t afford to lose him to yet another injury at this point in the year. As for the Nationals’ offense, OF Howie Hendrick is a guy that just might come through at the plate in this one. Kendrick is 8-for-18 with a double, a homer, and two RBI against Keuchel in his career. Another guy that has had success against the lefty is 1B Ryan Zimmerman. He is 4-for-6 with two doubles and four RBI against him and it’s definitely possible that he’ll show up in a big way here.

The Astros will be excited to have Dallas Keuchel on the mound in this one, as the lefty looked like his usual self in his past two outings. Keuchel was struggling with a neck injury leading up to the All-Star break and he also had trouble in his first two starts after coming back, but he is looking like a Cy Young caliber pitcher once again. In his past 13.2 innings of work, Keuchel has allowed only one earned run. If he can turn in an effort anything like either of those past two then the Astros will be in great shape here. They will, however, need some of their guys to find a way to hit Strasburg in this one. One guy that could be an unlikely source of production in this one is C Brian McCann. McCann is 7-for-20 with a double, a homer, and two RBI against Strasburg in his career. It’d be big if he can show up for his team here.

Dave's MLB Thursday
By Dave Essler

Mets/D-Backs: Interesting line move away from Ray here. Montero has had a couple of good outings and tends to keep the ball down, and Ray is coming of a month-long DL stint (concussion), which in conjunction with the D-Backs pen being poor lately is probably why. The Mets' pen has been great, and Conforto is questionable - so my guess is the line will move again when his status is announced. The best bet it likely the Mets RL.

Phillies/Fish: For as well as Worley has pitched, the fact is that he hasn't pitched deep too often meaning any Miami bet would be predicated on their bullpen, which has been marginal at best. Until yesterday the Fish had been scoring at will, so I wonder if the overnight move to the Phillies isn't an over reaction. Thompson gave up a lot of fly ball outs in LA in his last outing, and of course hasn't thrown more than five innings so probably can't be trusted, either. The total went to 10 for a reason, but needing 11 runs to win an "over" in a day game requires at the very least waiting for lineups.

Dodgers/Pirates: After last night's game one would have to think the Pirates will have some confidence, an by the same token the might have a tougher time rebounding emotionally. I have never been as high on Ryu as most, and most of Kuhl's rougher outings have been on the road. It might be easy to like the "over" here - but sooner at 8.5 is better than later because it should go to 9, based on my interpretation of the market. But, the weather is not necessarily conducive to runs, seeing that it's cloudy/damp and it's a big park. I can't take the Dodgers (Ryu) at -160 here, so the Pirates RL - or this might be a good game to bet live (the total) depending on how the first few innings go.

Cubs/Reds: I made the mistake last night of assuming the sharper money on the Reds meant something, which clearly for the first pitch it did not. Arrieta one-hit the Reds in seven innings back in early July, so normally I'd like to think Cincinnati remembers that and makes some adjustments - but, it's the Reds and it's been some time since then. Romano has only been able to get Atlanta out, and threw 102 pitches in his last outing. The last time he threw that many he was lit up in his next start, so with or without Bryant there's a strong likelihood he will get lit again. I do like the Cubs here - and maybe the over.

Yankees/Tigers: My first instinct last night was to back Fulmer, or fade Garcia, however you want to look at it. The Yankees tee off of Fulmer in New York three weeks ago, but last week he was brilliant in a loss to the Dodgers. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. Garcia wasn't that good with the Braves and hasn't been that good in three starts with New York, so I can't back him. However, I'd be lying if I wasn't afraid of the Yankee's pen - but lately it's been uncharacteristically bad, and so has the Tiger's bullpen. When all is said and done I think there will be some runs, but it's a bit chilly in Detroit so the Tiger's may well be the best bet. Home teams in day/getaway games tend to be reasonable options.

MLB Line Drive
Covers.com

Double-Play Picks

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds (+155, 9.5)

The Cubs and Reds collide in Cincinnati this evening for the final game of their three-game series, and we will be sad to see them separate.

These two offensive-minded teams met last week for four games at Wrigley Field and it was a fireworks display, with three of the four games going over the total with an average combined score of 14.75 runs per game. And in the first two games of this series the two teams have combined for 34 runs (back-to-back winners on the Over for us) - an average of 17 runs per game.

That means the Cubs and Reds are averaging 15.5 total combined runs in their last six head-to-head meetings.

It might be a nice change of pace for the Reds to run a lefty out to the mound since it's quite clear that the Cubs are crushing right-handed pitching right now. Or perhaps they'll just throw Sal Romano - who is a carbon copy of Bailey and Wojciechowski, both of whom the Cubs have absolutely hammered in the last two games. The good news for Over bettors is that the Cubs could cover today's number by themselves.

Romano owns an ERA of 5.32 overall this season and he's been particularly bad at Great American Ball Park. In four starts at home his ERA is 6.63 and his WHIP is 1.74.

Jake Arrieta gets the ball for the Cubbies. He has been pitching very well recently for Chicago, but this is still not the Jake Arrieta from 2015 or 2016. There is still some zip missing from his fastball and if you're going to get to him, on the road is the best place to do so.

His road ERA is slightly higher than his overall number at 3.86 and two of his last three visits to Cincinnati have not produced good starts with four and five earned runs allowed.

Make no mistake about it, the Reds can hit the baseball. They showed off their power in the ninth inning last night by ripping three home runs to cash our Over. The Reds have hit the third most home runs in the National League and they will plate a few runs off Arrieta or the Cubs bullpen tonight.

Last week we predicted all of these seven meetings would go over the total. Thus far we've hit five out of six - and you bet your ass we're on the Over again today.

Pick: Over 9.5

Washington Nationals at Houston Astros (-150, 8 )

We have been treated to a great interleague matchup this week in Houston as the American League leading Astros have been host to the Nationals, who more people would be talking about if it wasn’t for the ridiculous run the Dodgers are on.

After the two World Series contenders have split the first two games of the series, we get spoiled with a terrific rubber match as the Nationals’ Stephen Strasburg is set to face off against the Astros’ Dallas Keuchel.

Strasburg, finally healthy, is quietly having a great season for Washington, going 10-4 with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. His last three starts have been even better, going 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP, while striking out 21 in 15 innings pitched.

Dallas Keuchel has once again found his groove for the Astros. The former Cy Young Award winner started the season 9-0 with a 1.67 WHIP and a 0.87 WHIP, but the southpaw missed a good chunk of the summer due to a neck injury and showed he was rusty his first three games back, pitching to an ERA of 10.50 and a 2.58 WHIP.

In his last two starts though, he has allowed only one run while scattering nine hits in 13.2 innings pitched while striking out 10. Breathe a sigh of relief Houston fans.

This game will have the feeling of a playoff atmosphere and expect it to play out that way. Oh, and the Under is 7-0 in the last seven meetings between these two teams in Houston.

Pick: Under 8

Yesterday's Picks: 2-0
Season To Date: 124-112-13

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Trevor Bauer, Cleveland Indians (12-8, 4.50 ERA, $-246)

Trevor Bauer is putting together a pretty impressive month of August for the Indians.

In 27.2 innings this month he has only allowed five runs (1.65 ERA), has a 1.29 WHIP, and has struck out 32 while only walking six. An interesting tidbit: all five of his runs allowed have been solo home runs.

Bauer and the Indians are +146 home dogs today against Chris Sale and the Boston Red Sox.

Slumping: Derek Holland, Chicago White Sox (6-13, 6.28 ERA, $-623)

It isn’t always easy to pick a slumping starting pitching, unless it’s Derek Holland’s turn in the White Sox rotation - and he has been a special type of awful lately.

In his last three trips to the mound, two starts and one relief appearance he has given up 17 runs in five innings of work (30.60 ERA).

Holland and the White Sox are +161 home dogs against Jose Berrios and the Minnesota Twins.

Thursday's Top Trends

The New York Mets are 0-8 in their last eight games vs. a left-handed starter. +138 today vs. D-Backs (Robbie Ray).

The Colorado Rockies are 4-18 in their last 22 road games vs. a right-handed starter. +104 today at Royals (Jake Junis).

The Boston Red Sox are 15-3 in their last 18 games vs. a right-handed starter. -150 today at Indians (Trevor Bauer).

Over is 11-1-1 in the St. Louis Cardinals' last 13 games vs. a right-handed starter (Luis Perdomo). Padres/Cards Total: 8.

Weather To Keep An Eye On

The only precipitation in today’s forecast is a slight chance (25-35 percent) of showers in Pittsburgh, where the Dodgers are in town to play the Pirates.

The only significant wind in the forecast is a pitchers wind at Progressive Field in Cleveland. The Indians are hosting the Red Sox and a 9-10 mile per hour pitchers wind will be blowing in from left field. The total for the game is currently set at 7.

Ump Of The Day

Jim Reynolds will be behind the plate this afternoon in Tampa where the Rays are hosting the Toronto Blue Jays.

Reynolds’s has been one of baseball’s top Over umpires this season with a record of 14-7 and over his last 19 games calling balls and strikes the Over is 13-3-3.

Another interesting trend heading into the game, the Blue Jays have won 14 of their last 17 games with Reynolds behind home plate.

The Over/Under is currently sitting at 8 and Blue Jays are available at +152.