MLB Betting News and Notes Thursday, August 31st, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Mets @ Reds
deGrom is 2-4, 3.92 in his last six starts; over is 7-3 in his last ten starts. New York is 9-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 16-9-1

Stephenson is 2-0, 2.76 in his last three starts (under 3-2). Reds split his two home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-1-1

Mets are 5-12 in their last 17 games; four of their last five games went over. Cincinnati lost six of last nine games; under is 4-2 in their last six games.

Phillies @ Marlins
Lively is 0-4, 6.49 in his last five starts (under 6-2-1). Phillies are 1-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-8-1

Despaigne is 0-1, 7.59 in two starts this season (over 1-1). Miami won his only home start— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-1-1

Phillies are 2-5 in last seven road games (over 5-2)- they’re 8-14 in road series openers. Marlins lost their last three games; over is 6-2 in their last eight games. Miami is 7-14 in home series openers.

Dodgers @ Diamondbacks
Maeda is 6-1, 2.84 in his last eight starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six. He is 0-0, 5.00 in two starts against Arizona this season. Dodgers are 6-5 in his road starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 14-5-2

Greinke is 2-2, 4.13 in his last four starts (under 4-0). He is 0-2, 6.17 against the Dodgers this season. LA is 15-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-6-4

Dodgers lost four in row for first time this year; five of their last seven games stayed under. Arizona won eight of last nine games; their last three games went over.

Braves @ Cubs
Newcomb is 1-2, 4.44 in his last five starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Atlanta is 2-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-10

Hendricks is 1-0, 2.19 in his last four starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Cubs are 5-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-6-3

Atlanta is 5-3 in its last eight road games; over is 7-4 in their last 11 road games. Braves are 12-7 in last 19 road series openers. Cubs won four of last five games; under is 4-2-1 in their last seven games. Chicago is 10-12 in home series openers.

Nationals @ Brewers
Gonzalez is 5-0, 1.05 in his last five starts; under is 7-4 in his last 11 starts. Washington is 9-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 16-5-5

Davies is 2-1, 1.37 in his last three starts; under is 7-0-1 in his last eight. Milwaukee is 7-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-8-5

Washington won its last four games; five of their last six games went over. Nationals are 14-9 in home series openers. Milwaukee won five of their last six home games; eight of their last ten games stayed under. Brewers are 12-10 in home series openers.

Cardinals @ Giants
Wacha is 0-3, 10.22 in his last three starts; over is 4-0 in his last four. St Louis is 4-6 in his road starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 10-10-4

Bumgarner is 2-1, 2.77 in his last four starts; under is 4-2 in his last six starts. Giants are 2-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-7-3

Cardinals lost four of last six games; over is 4-1 in their last five. St Louis is 9-12 in road series openers. Giants lost five of their last six games; eight of their last ten games overall stayed under. SF is 7-14 in home series openers.

American League

White Sox @ Twins
Gonzalez is 2-0, 1.29 in his last four starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight. Chicago is 4-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-11-2

Colon is 4-1, 3.21 in his last five starts; over is 4-2-1 in his last seven. Minnesota split his four home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-3

White Sox lost three of last four games; six of their last eight games stayed under. Minnesota won its last six home games; under is 5-3 in their last eight games overall.

Boston @ New York
Rodriguez is 0-1, 6.23 in his last three starts; under is 7-1 in his last eight. Boston lost his last four road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-9

Sabathia is 1-0, 1.93 in his last two starts; under is 13-2 in his last 15 starts. New York is 6-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-10-1

Red Sox won five of last six road games; four of their last five games stayed under. Boston is 10-12 in road series openers. New York lost its last three games; under is 9-4 in their last 13 home games. NY is 13-8 in home series openers.

Blue Jays @ Orioles
Estrada is 1-1, 6.61 in his last three starts (over 3-0). Toronto lost four of his last five road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-15-3

Hellickson is 1-2, 7.54 in his last four starts, last three of which went over. Baltimore is 2-0 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-2-1

Toronto lost nine of last 11 games; under is 5-2 in their last seven. Blue Jays lost their last five road series openers. Orioles won eight of last nine games; seven of their last 11 games stayed under. Baltimore is 15-7 in home series openers.

Rangers vs Astros (@ St Petersburg)
Hamels is 4-1, 3.51 in his last five starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Texas is 4-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-1-2

McHugh is 2-0, 0.75 in his last two starts; his last six starts stayed under. Houston is 2-3 in his starts away from home— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-3-1

This is series is in the Trop where the Rays normally play. Rangers lost four of last seven games (over 6-1). Houston lost three of last four games; over is 4-0 in their last four games.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
NY-Cin: deGrom 16-10; Stephenson 3-2
LA-Az: Maeda 15-6; Greinke 18-8
Phil-Mia: Lively 2-7; Despaigne 1-1
Atl-Chi: Newcomb 4-10; Hendricks 15-12

American League
Chi-Minn: Gonzalez 9-12; Colon 4-4
Bos-NY: Rodriguez 10-8; Sabathia 14-7
Tor-Balt: Estrada 12-15; Hellickson 3-2
Tex-Hst: Hamels 10-7; McHugh 3-4

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
NY-Cin: deGrom 8-26; Stephenson 1-5
LA-Az: Maeda 7-21; Greinke 3-26
Phil-Mia: Lively 3-9; Despaigne 1-2
Atl-Chi: Newcomb 3-14; Hendricks 7-27

American League
Chi-Minn: Gonzalez 6-21; Colon 1-8
Bos-NY: Rodriguez 4-18; Sabathia 5-21
Tor-Balt: Estrada 9-27; Hellickson 1-5
Tex-Hst: Hamels 7-17; McHugh 1-7

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 76-55 AL, favorites +$103
AL @ NL– 71-65 NL, favorites +$164
Total: 141-126 AL, favorites +$267

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 65-65-3
AL @ NL: Over 71-59-7
Total: Over 136-124-10

Armadillosports.com

MLB Betting Picks & Tips
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

New York (-125) at Cincinnati; Total: 9

Mets ace Jacob deGrom takes the hill for this getaway day tilt in the Queen City against Robert Stephenson and the Reds. You may be surprised about this line, but we have to consider all of the trades and injuries that have ravaged the Mets lineup. Michael Conforto, Yoenis Cespedes, Lucas Duda, Jay Bruce, and Curtis Granderson were all pieces of this team not that long ago and now they are gone from this group. As a result, the rating for the Mets has gone down dramatically.

That’s how you get such a huge pitching matchup advantage with such a relatively small line. Truthfully, when you consider the 15 to 25 cent advantage for home field advantage, this line does, in fact, look pretty reasonable. deGrom has been one of the few bright spots for the Mets this season with his 3.39/3.49/3.26 slash line. Most importantly, he’s stayed pretty healthy. This will be his 27th start and he is on pace to set a career high in innings pitched. deGrom has missed more bats this season as well. deGrom struck out 10 and allowed just one earned run last time out to bounce back from a couple of subpar outings. From June 12 to August 10, deGrom allowed more than three runs in a start just once. He’s done it twice in his last three outings. It happens. It’s just variance. I don’t think it means much for a guy like him.

Injuries or not, the Mets should be able to hit Robert Stephenson. A lot of people have this season. Stephenson has a 5.81 ERA with a 5.86 FIP and a 5.16 xFIP on the season. This will be his third straight start and his sixth start in his last seven appearances. He struck out 11 and walked four in 5.2 innings against the Pirates last time out. He’s actually made two pretty good starts of late, but he’s a wild card. You never know what he’s going to do with subpar command and poor control. The swing and miss element is still there, so he also has the ability to go out and rack up some punchouts.

There probably aren’t any edges to be exploited in this game. The line is coming down a little bit, as people are looking to fade the Mets. You can’t blame them for that. But, it’s hard to back Stephenson as well. I also don’t know about the Mets’ motivation in this one, as bad teams tend to give weak efforts in getaway day games. Anybody but deGrom and I’d fade the Mets here, but since it’s him, I’ll pass.

Los Angeles (-105) at Arizona; Total: 8.5

Kenta Maeda and Zack Greinke are the listed starters as the Diamondbacks look for a sweep of the best team in baseball. They’ll have their ace in the mound in hopes of doing it and get back to facing a right-hander after scratching out a pretty good offensive showing against southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu. The Diamondbacks are in the bottom third of the league against lefties, but rank fourth in wOBA against righties. Of course, adjusted for park factor, their wRC+ is just 97, which ranks 18th. This team may be a little bit of smoke and mirrors, but they’re playing well right now and the Dodgers are not.

The waves of arms in the Dodgers rotation are just ridiculous. Maeda has made 21 starts and two relief appearances with a 3.76 ERA, a 3.84 FIP, and a 3.89 xFIP. Maeda has struck out over a batter per inning and has pretty solid peripherals overall. Maeda hasn’t been able to go more than six innings in any of his last four starts, so the Dodgers would like to see a little more length. He’s allowed 10 runs over those 22.1 innings with five home runs allowed, so he’s keeping his team in ballgames.

To me, this is one of those spots that means more to Arizona. To sweep the Dodgers sounds impressive. It’s a confidence booster. For the Dodgers, who are blowing everybody away, it’s not a big deal to run into a bit of a slump. They know how good of a team they are. Clayton Kershaw returns tomorrow. I think motivation is a bit of a factor. Teams that play at a high level for so long have a hard time sustaining it. The foot just naturally comes off the gas. My guess is that’s what we’re seeing from the Dodgers right now. It happened to the Astros, too, but they’ve been unable to find the gas pedal since.

Zack Greinke has been terrific for the Diamondbacks this season. He has a 3.14 ERA with a 3.17 FIP and a 3.20 xFIP. He’s struck out well over a batter per inning for the first time since 2014 and has his best strikeout rate since 2011. He has had a few rocky outings in August, though. In five starts this month, Greinke has a 4.50 ERA, but his peripherals are still strong with a 3.23 FIP and a 3.13 xFIP. He’s simply had batted ball luck and sequencing issues with a .372 BABIP against and a 66.1 percent LOB%. It’s a small sample size, but I’d look for a guy like Greinke to bounce back in short order. This is a lineup that requires a lot of focus and Greinke has had an extra day to prepare, just like he had last time out. That extra day of rest is important this time of year.

I like the Diamondbacks here. I like Greinke over Maeda and I think there are some situational elements in play for the Diamondbacks as well. The Dodgers get their ace back tomorrow and visit a bad San Diego team, so they can get back on track quickly and they know it.

Boston at New York (-120); Total: 9

I’m a bit surprised by this line, to be honest. The Yankees were just swept by the Indians, have some problems with Aroldis Chapman at the back end of the bullpen, and have a slumping Aaron Judge trying to figure it all out. Add in the fact that I’m high on Eduardo Rodriguez and I think we have a situation where this line could drop a little bit by game time. I’m a bit higher on CC Sabathia than the market and Sabathia has been a fade candidate for a while now, so for me to say that this line will go down should tell you something.

You certainly have to respect the Yankees bullpen, but the Yankees also need to play from in front to take advantage of that bullpen.

Eduardo Rodriguez has a 4.19 ERA with a 3.86 FIP and a 4.25 xFIP. I’m not sure if he’ll make the ALDS roster over Rick Porcello, but he’s a very intriguing guy to me. I like the strikeout rate and I like the plan to induce weak aerial contact. E-Rod actually has gotten a little bit unlucky that more of his fly balls haven’t turned into pop ups. Last season, Rodriguez had an 11.8 percent pop up rate. A similar rate this season would be really helpful for him with an increased strikeout rate, but only 5.6 percent of his fly balls have been the infield variety. Those are effectively strikeouts, so they are a big deal.

Rodriguez has struggled a bit over his last three outings with 12 runs allowed on 19 hits in 17.2 innings of work. He has 18 strikeouts against five walks, though, which I really like. He’s seen a bit of LOB% regression in those three starts, which was bound to happen. He’s also had some unfortunate batted ball luck in those games. He’s induced a lot of ground balls over his last two starts, which does make me wonder if his arm slot has dropped a little bit due to fatigue. It may simply be a mechanical thing, but I will be monitoring that as we move forward. I still like him in this matchup.

CC Sabathia has a 3.82 ERA with a 4.40 FIP and a 4.30 xFIP. It isn’t a sexy profile by any means, but Sabathia has been pretty effective in his 21 starts. He’ll be going on extra rest here because of yesterday’s doubleheader. The once hefty lefty had not allowed more than four runs in a start since May 9. He’s done that four times. Aside from that, he has allowed two runs or less. Dating back to May 16, Sabathia has a 2.83 ERA with a 3.95 FIP and a 3.95 xFIP, so he has been a savior for this Yankees rotation. I’d certainly be on the lookout for some regression, though, with a .254 BABIP against and an 82 percent LOB%.

I’ve got more trust in the Boston lineup to hit Sabathia than I have in the New York lineup to hit Rodriguez with the way things are going. I think you can start with a position on Boston, see how the game is going, and consider plus money either way to bet on the Yankees bullpen or just hold your Boston ticket. I think this is a decent spot for them, especially with a chance to widen their AL East lead.

Washington at Milwaukee (-110); Total: 8.5

I completely agree with the line move in this one, as the Brewers are taking on steam against the Nationals. It will be Zach Davies for the Brewers and Gio Gonzalez for the Nationals. At some point, this Gonzalez fade is going to work out. It has to. This is one of those seasons that has been really frustrating for somebody that uses sabermetrics to bet.

All of the sudden, Gonzalez’s ERA is down to 2.40 with a 3.86 FIP and a 4.28 xFIP. He has a .242 BABIP against, which is 50 points above his career average, and an 85.8 percent LOB%, which is among the best in the league. It’s nearly 12 percent above his career rate. Gonzalez has not had a BABIP against over .333 in a start since May 30. He’s had two starts with a LOB% below 70 percent this season. This shouldn’t be sustainable for anybody, let alone a guy that largely pitches to contact and has average control. Yet, here we are. I’ve faded Gonzalez every start since his near no-hitter and he has allowed one, zero, one, and two runs with LOB% of 87.5, 100, 83.3, and 90.9. I don’t know what more I can do. The numbers need to play out. Hopefully Milwaukee can be the team to deliver that blow. I stand by my handicapping methods and I believe in them. I will fade Gio Gonzalez today.

It doesn’t hurt that Zach Davies has found his command once again. Davies has a 3.91 ERA with a 4.25 FIP and a 4.52 xFIP. He’s pitched pretty well for a while now with a 1.67 ERA, a 2.76 FIP, and a 4.15 xFIP in his last eight starts. It’s a tough profile to evaluate because Davies doesn’t miss a lot of bats, but he stopped walking guys and has only allowed one home run in his last 54 innings. I understand the hesitation to back a guy like Davies, but I have to stay true to what has worked for me.

It’ll be the Brewers for me today.

St. Louis at San Francisco (-105); Total: 7.5

Michael Wacha and Madison Bumgarner meet in tonight’s nightcap. We’ve seen a significant move against the Giants already tonight. It seems that the level of suck that the Giants have shown this season outweighs the fact that Bumgarner is one of the league’s best pitchers. Bookmaker opened this one -140 and it dropped like a rock. Even when Pinnacle opened -128, it fell from the sky.

Wacha does show some modest signs of positive regression with a 4.33 ERA, a 3.76 FIP, and a 3.84 xFIP. He’s got a solid strikeout rate, the best of his career in fact, but has lost his command in recent starts. His BABIP is up near where it was last season and his home run rate has been growing for a while. Wacha has allowed 17 runs over his last four starts and has stopped striking out batters. He only has 24 over his last six starts in 28.1 innings. He was up around a strikeout per inning for a while. He’s given up five home runs and 38 total hits in those 28.1 innings of work. It’s a hard profile for me to back right now, even against a putrid offense like the Giants.

Madison Bumgarner has a 2.85 ERA with a 3.50 FIP and a 3.89 xFIP in his 85.1 innings of work. Bumgarner returned on July 15 and has pitched pretty well overall with a 2.78 ERA, a 3.93 FIP, and a 4.09 xFIP. The market may be looking to fade Bumgarner’s 88.8 percent LOB% and some of the home run issues that he has shown of late. I certainly can’t fault them for that. While I understand the move, I did give the Giants a thought at this price point, but they’re absolutely terrible offensively and defensively. There’s only so much that Bumgarner can do, so I’ll pass on the nightcap.

Desperate Yankees host rival Sox
By: StatFox.com

The Yankees will be hoping to get back on track and also back into the race for the AL East with a win over the Red Sox on Thursday.

The Red Sox are currently running away with the AL East and the Yankees getting swept by the Indians certainly didn’t do much to change that. New York is really struggling right now and is going to find itself in some serious trouble if it loses this four-game series. The Yankees can very easily fall out of the top spot in the wild card standings, which would be absolutely unacceptable after New York was a buyer at the trade deadline. The Yankees will have a sweep on their minds when they take the field on Thursday, but that type of mentality just might do them in. They need to approach every game on its own and do their best to chip away at Boston’s lead in the division. It’s not going to go away overnight. The starters in this Thursday night matchup are going to be LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (4-4, 4.19 ERA, 114 K) for Boston and LHP CC Sabathia (10-5, 3.82 ERA, 90 K) for New York. Rodriguez has struggled recently for Boston and Sabathia has been great for New York. Sabathia is, however, capable of getting roughed up on any given night, so it’s not necessarily a huge edge on the mound for the Yankees here.

The Red Sox have been one of the best teams in the American League in the second half of the season and they’ll now hope to separate themselves from the Yankees for good this weekend. If they can take three or four of these games from the Yankees then it will be very tough for New York to ever climb back into the top spot of the division. That is why it is important that Rodriguez comes ready to perform at a high level. He was excellent the last time he faced the Yankees in New York, as he threw six innings of shutout ball and struck out seven batters in the process. If he can turn in another performance like that then it would be huge for Boston. He has, however, allowed 12 earned runs in his past 17.2 innings of work. He gave up seven or more hits in two of his past three starts and that can’t happen again on Thursday. On offense, the Sox will be looking to OF Mookie Betts for a spark. He has had a disappointing season at the plate, but he is also 7-for-20 with a double and two RBI against Sabathia in his career. It wouldn’t be shocking if he takes him yard for the first time in this one.

The Yankees were awful in their four-game series against the Indians and you can probably safely assume that they were looking ahead to this series too much. They know that they needed to take three or four from Boston in this one, but they also took themselves right out of it by getting swept by the Indians. Now they almost need a sweep in order to stay alive in the AL East race. The good news for New York is that Sabathia will be on the mound in this one. The lefty has been excellent this season and will now do everything he can to shut down Boston here. In his most recent start against the Sox, Sabathia allowed just two earned runs in six innings of work on Aug. 19. The Yankees would definitely sign up for that again. And on offense, one guy to keep an eye on for New York is SS Didi Gregorius. He is 7-for-22 with two doubles and an RBI against Rodriguez in his career and that is better than anybody else on the team has done against the lefty.