MLB Betting News and Notes Thursday, August 3rd, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Reds @ Pirates
Romano is 2-2, 5.82 in five starts this year (under 3-2). Reds are 1-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-2

Kuhl is 0-1, 4.12 in his last four starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six. Pirates are 4-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-8-3

Reds won their last three games; over is 6-2 in their last eight games. Pittsburgh lost six of last seven games; under is 15-2 in their last 17 home games.

Dodgers @ Braves
Wood is 6-1, 3.22 in his last seven starts; over is 8-6-1 in his last 15. Dodgers are 4-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-3-1

Newcomb is 0-3, 7.61 in his last five starts (under 6-3). Braves are 1-4 inches home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-6

Dodgers won nine of their last ten games; under is 7-2 in their last nine road games. Atlanta lost four of last six games; under is 5-0-1 in their last six games.

Cardinals @ Brewers
Wacha is 5-1, 1.86 in his last six starts; his last five stayed under. St Louis is 3-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-6-4

Garza is 1-1, 1.65 in his last three starts; his last five starts stayed under. Milwaukee is 5-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-6-2

Cardinals won six of last nine games; under is 5-1-2 in their last eight games. Milwaukee lost five of last seven games; under is 12-4-1 in their last 17 games.

Diamondbacks @ Cubs
Greinke is 5-0, 2.08 in his last six starts; under is 4-1-2 in his last seven. Arizona is 4-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-3-3

Quintana is 2-1, 2.37 in three starts for the Cubs (under 3-0). Cubs won his only Wrigley start— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-1-1

Arizona lost three of last five games; under is 4-1-1 in their last six games. Cubs won six of last eight games; under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games.

Mets @ Rockies
Montero is 0-3, 6.00 in his last four starts (under 3-1). Mets won both his road starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 1-5-1

Marquez is 4-0, 3.25 in his last four starts; under is 6-3 in his last nine. Colorado won his last six home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-4-3

Mets lost five of last seven games; over is 9-3 in their last 12 games. Colorado won seven of last nine home games; over is 9-5 in their last 14 games.

American League

Tigers @ Orioles
Boyd is 3-0, 2.84 in his last three starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Detroit is 5-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-7-3

Tillman is 0-1, 6.21 in his last six starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Orioles are 4-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-9-3

Tigers are 4-1 in last five games, 10-7 in road series openers. Over is 9-5-1 in their last 15 road games. Baltimore is 11-5 in last 16 games; under is 4-1 in their last five games. Orioles are 12-6 in home series openers.

New York @ Cleveland
Gray makes his New York debut here; he was 3-1, 2.96 in his last four starts for Oakland. Under is 4-2 in his last six starts.

Kluber is 1-0, 3.08 in his last four starts (over 2-0-2). Indians are 6-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-7-2

New York is 9-4 in last 13 games- five of their last six games stayed under. NY is 9-8 in road series openers. Cleveland won nine of its last 12 games; over is 8-5 in their last 13. Indians are 8-9 in home series openers.

White Sox @ Red Sox
Gonzalez is 1-1, 2.79 in his last three starts; over is 7-3 in his last ten. Chicago is 3-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-9-2

Rodriguez is 0-2, 7.84 in his last four starts (under 9-4). Boston is 4-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-6

White Sox are 3-15 since All-Star break, 6-12 in road series openers. Over is 4-2 in their last six games. Boston won three of last four games; under is 14-4-1 in last 19 games at Fenway Park. Red Sox are 12-6 in home series openers.

Mariners @ Royals
Gallardo is 1-0, 3.38 in two starts since rejoining the rotation; over is 8-2 in his last ten starts. Seattle is 3-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-8-2

Cahill allowed five runs in four IP (90 PT) in his first start for the Royals— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-1

Mariners won eight of last ten road games; under is 8-3 in their last 11 road games. Seattle is 8-4 in last 12 road series openers. Royals lost four of last five games; their last four games stayed under. KC is 9-8 in home series openers.

Rays @ Astros
Snell is 0-1, 3.80 in his last four starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. Rays are 2-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-7-1

McHugh is 0-0, 4.22 in two starts this year (over 1-1). This is his first home starts this year. Astros’ first 5-inning record with him: 1-1

Rays won three of last four games; under is 12-6-1 in their last 19 games. Houston lost five of last seven games; over is 9-3 in their last 12 games.

Rangers @ Twins
Griffin is 0-2, 15.83 in his last three starts, last of which was May 26. Over is 7-1 in his starts. Texas is 4-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-3

Mejia is 0-1, 3.80 in his last four starts; under is 5-2-1 in his last eight. Minnesota is 4-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-4-4

Rangers lost four of last five games; under is 4-2 in their last six games. Texas is 7-10 in road series openers. Minnesota lost seven of last nine games; under is 4-2 in their last six home games. 9-8 in home series openers.

Interleague

A’s @ Giants
Graveman is 0-3, 4.50 in his last six starts; under is 5-3 in his starts. A’s are 1-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-3-4

Blach is 0-2, 3.43 in his last three starts; his last five stayed under. Giants are 4-6 in his home starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 9-8

Oakland won four of its last five games; over is 4-1-2 in their last seven. Giants lost five of last six games; over is 7-5 in their last 12 games.

Phillies @ Angels
Eickhoff is 2-0, 4.09 in his last four starts; over is 5-3 in his last eight starts. Phillies are 0-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-10-1

Bridwell is 3-0, 1.69 in his last four starts (under 4-0). Angels are 3-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-1-1

Phillies won five of last seven games; under is 11-6-1 in their last 18 road games. Angels won four of last five games; under is 9-3 in their last 12 home games.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
StL-Mil: Wacha 10-9; Garza 7-8
Az-Chi: Greinke 15-6; Quintana 2-1 (10-8 )
NY-Col: Montero 3-4; Marquez 11-6
Cin-Pitt: Romano 2-3; Kuhl 7-14
LA-Atl: Wood 12-4; Newcomb 2-7

American League
Det-Balt: Boyd 7-7; Tillman 5-9
Chi-Bos: Gonzalez 6-10; Rodriguez 8-5
NY-Clev: Gray 0-0 (8-8 ); Kluber 10-7
TB-Hst: Snell 3-9; McHugh 1-1
Tex-Min: Griffin 6-2; Mejia 7-9
Sea-KC: Gallardo 6-10; Cahill 0-1 (6-5)

Interleague
A’s-SF: Graveman 4-4; Blach 7-10
Phil-LA: Eickhoff 5-13; Bridwell 7-1

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
StL-Mil: Wacha 3-19; Garza 4-15
Az-Chi: Greinke 3-21; Quintana 4-21
NY-Col: Montero 2-7; Marquez 5-17
Cin-Pitt: Romano 0-5; Kuhl 4-21
LA-Atl: Wood 2-16; Newcomb 3-6

American League
Det-Balt: Boyd 5-14; Tillman 6-14
Chi-Bos: Gonzalez 5-16; Rodriguez 4-13
NY-Clev: Gray 2-16; Kluber 3-17
TB-Hst: Snell 2-12; McHugh 0-2
Tex-Min: Griffin 2-8; Mejia 4-16
Sea-KC: Gallardo 8-16; Cahill 3-12

Interleague
A’s-SF: Graveman 4-8; Blach 6-17
Phil-LA: Eickhoff 6-18; Bridwell 0-8

Interleague

Interleague play
NL @ AL– 56-43 AL, favorites -$568
AL @ NL– 57-51 NL, favorites -$501
Total: 107-100 AL, favorites -$1,069

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 51-48-2
AL @ NL: Over 60-45-4
Total: Over 111-93-6

Armadillosports.com

Thursday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Orioles (5-0 past five overall, 8-2 past 10 home games)

The Orioles cooled off the previously red-hot Royals, brooming them out of Charm City while outscoring Kansas City by a combined 15-3 score. Now, the O's look to continue their revival and scratch back to the .500 mark with a win over the visiting Tigers. Detroit has shown signs of life over the past five, going 4-1 during the stretch, but they're still a dismal 8-20 over their past 28 road games against a right-handed starting pitcher. The O's, meanwhile, set their sights of left-hander Matthew Boyd of the Tigers. Baltimore has won six straight againts southpaws, each of their past four at home and six of their past seven against teams with an overall losing mark. While they're just 3-8 over Chris Tillman's past 11 assignments, the O's are 26-12 across Tillman's past 38 outings against teams with a losing record.

Coldest team: Pirates (1-6 past seven games)

The Pirates had played their way into contention in the National League Central a few weeks back, climbing to within two games of the perch within their division. However, a 2-8 mark over their past 10 outings has them back to five games under .500 and 6 1/2 games behind the defending champion Cubs. While Pittsburgh was able to retain the services of Andrew McCutchen, and that's a feel-good story for the small-market club, there hasn't been much to smile about late in the Steel City. The Bucs have won just once over their past seven outings, they're 1-4 across the past five vs. RHP and they have won just six times over Chad Kuhl's past 20 outings.The Reds have been kryptonite to the Pirates, too, winning eight straight meetings in Pittsburgh and four in a row overall in the series.

Hottest pitcher: Corey Kluber, Indians (8-3, 2.90 ERA)

The All-Star Kluber takes the ball for manager Terry Francona trying to turn things around for the Indians. After an outstanding nine-game win streak, the Tribe have dropped three in a row. Mother Nature gave them a break Wednesday in Boston, giving the Indians a much-needed rest. Now, they'll have to deal with the hoopla surrounding Sonny Gray's debut in pinstripes. That's why it's good they have the unflappable Klubot on the hill. The Indians have won 10 of their past 11 home games, six straight at Progressive Field vs. RHP and 5-2 across their past seven against AL East foes. The Yankees have dominated this series recently, winning four of the past five meetings overall, and four of their past five in Cleveland. However, the Indians are 6-1 over Kluber's past seven tries against AL East clubs and 25-10 over his past 35 starts overall.

Coldest pitcher: Rick Porcello, Red Sox (4-14, 4.55 ERA)

What an amazing turnaround for Porcello this season, and not in a good way, obviously. He was 22-4 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over 33 starts en route to a 2016 American League Cy Young Award. That came after a 9-15 recrd and 4.92 ERA in 28 starts in his first season in Beantown in 2015. This season has certainly resembled that campaign, and that's not good for Boston. Now he'll square off against the offensively-challenged White Sox, a team he knows all too well from his days as a member of the Tigers. Since the start of the 2014 season he is 1-4 with a 5.54 ERA across five outings vs. the White Sox, posting a dismal .347 opponent batting overage over 26 innings.

Biggest UNDER run: Royals (4-0 past four overall)

The 'under' has connected in four consecutive games for the Royals, while going 9-1-1 in their past 11 outings following a loss. In addition, the under is 5-1-1 in their past seven against teams with a winning overall record and 9-3 in their past 12 during the opening game of a new series. The under is also 14-6-2 in their past 22 against American League West foes, while going 7-3 in the past 10 meetings with the Mariners. The M's should cooperate with the low-scoring ways of K.C. lately, going 4-1 in the past five road games and 7-2 in their past nine road outings vs. RHP.

Biggest OVER run: Astros (19-7-1 past 27 overall)

The Astros have been a high-scoring bunch this season, leading the majors with 627 runs and an American League-best plus-163 run differential. The 'over' has been connecting frequently, going 19-7-1 over the past 27 games overall and 4-1 across their past five home games against a left-handed starter. The over is also 7-2 in their past nine vs. LHP, 25-8-1 in their past 34 against AL East clubs and 7-3 over their past 10 home games against a team with a winning overall record. While the under is 4-0-1 in Collin McHugh's past five home starts, he is still just making his way back from a long-term injury and appears to be a bit rusty.

Matchup to watch: Giants vs. Athletics

The A's and Giants wrap up their home-and-home interleague series on Thursday night in San Francisco, as the Giants look to square up the season series at 2-2. Oakland is 4-1 across their past five interleague road outings against left-handed starting pitching, but they're a dismal 11-43 over their past 54 road games overall vs. LHP. The A's are also just 19-40 over their past 59 games on the road, although they have had success against the AL West. They're 5-2 in the past seven against American League West squads. San Francisco also continues to struggle, going 1-5 over the past six games overall and 5-13 over their past 18 vs. RHP. Total bettors might want to hop on the 'over', as it is 8-1-1 in the past 10 meetings in this series.

Betcha didn’t know: Gray makes his debut for the Yankees, and he was unfazed by all of the trade rumors and the eventual cross-country move from Oakland to New York. He ripped off six consecutive quality starts to close his tenure with the A's, going 4-2 with a 1.37 ERA. That includes six strong innings in a 5-0 victory against the Indians on July 14. He has posted a 3-2 record with a 3.43 ERA in his career against Cleveland. Meanwhile, the All-Star Kluber has rolled to a 1.91 ERA over five career outings vs. the Bronx Bombers. Kluber has been a strikeout machine lately, posting 120 punchouts over the past 77 1/3 innings.

Biggest public favorite: Red Sox (-240) vs. White Sox

Biggest public underdog: Diamondbacks (+130) at Cubs

Biggest line move: Tigers (+135 to +125) at Orioles

MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

St. Louis (-130) at Milwaukee; Total: 9

Matinee baseball between the Cardinals and the Brewers kicks off a busy Thursday in the big leagues. It will be Michael Wacha for the visitors and Matt Garza for the home team. The market has shown a slight affinity for the Cardinals, with an opener of -121 up to -127 on the overnights. Wacha is having a really strong season. After a blip on the radar last season with a 5.09 ERA, Wacha has a 3.71 mark this season. His FIP sits at 3.38 with an improved strikeout rate and his xFIP is at 3.68, which is the best of his career since an abbreviated stint with 15 appearances in 2013.

Wacha sits below the league average HR/FB% at 11 percent and has done a much better job of stranding runners this season. Last year, his LOB% was 64.7 percent, so he was a guy that we should have isolated for some positive regression coming into the year. I probably mentioned it in the season win total write-up, but didn’t have him on my list of guys to back. I should have, because he has been terrific. Wacha was in a fade spot against the Cubs on July 23 after throwing a complete game on July 18, but he bounced back nicely five days later to throw six shutout against the Diamondbacks. He’s got an extra day of rest today. Wacha has 42 strikeouts over his last 38.2 innings of work with a 1.86/2.19/2.85 pitcher slash, so he’s in a nice groove.

Nobody has noticed, but Matt Garza is actually pitching pretty well lately. Garza has a 3.83 ERA with a 4.12 FIP. His 4.71 xFIP certainly stands out and will likely lead to some Cardinals investment today. Garza doesn’t miss a whole lot of bats, so he’s pretty reliant on batted ball luck. Cosnidering his .276 BABIP, he’s had a lot of it this season.

Unfortunately, Garza is in one of those spots that I dread. Despite being in a nice groove over his five most recent starts, with a 2.63 ERA and a 3.92 FIP, Garza is coming off of the DL after missing time with a leg injury. He hasn’t pitched since July 21. Those that read regularly know my reservations about backing pitchers fresh off of the DL. With a guy like Garza that doesn’t have the stuff to miss bats, a return from any kind of injury is a scary proposition because his command doesn’t come with a lot of margin for error.

The Brewers haven’t been hitting lately, either. Factor all of that in and the chalk may be the way to go, but we have seen the Brewers be extremely resilient in spots like this in series finales. I’ve got a slight lean to the Cardinals, but the rest of the card likely presents better opportunities.

Arizona at Chicago (-130)

The Diamondbacks and the Cubs meet for day baseball at Wrigley Field. We don’t have a total on this one yet, but it should be a very interesting line with Zack Greinke on the hill against Jose Quintana. Greinke has been terrific this season and Quintana, who has struggled this year, has looked pretty good with the Cubs in his first three starts.

Greinke has a 2.84 ERA with a 3.18 FIP and a 3.21 xFIP. Last season was definitely the anomaly for Greinke, as he battled injuries and dealt with a low strikeout rate to post a 4.37/4.12/3.98 pitcher slash. He’s back this season, with his usual pristine BB rate and the best strikeout rate he’s had since 2011 with the Brewers. Greinke has given up more home runs again this season than he previous allowed in his stint with the Royals, Brewers, and Dodgers, but he’s been no worse for the wear overall. With a lot of run support coming from his offense, you can make a case that Greinke has kept his team in every game this season. He’s allowed five runs three times in his 21 starts and four runs twice. Outside of that, he’s been mostly untouchable. Greinke hasn’t allowed more than four runs in a start since June 13. From April 29 to May 27, Greinke had a command blip and allowed nine of the 17 dingers he has allowed this season across those six starts.

Jose Quintana went from the outhouse to the penthouse with his trade from the South Side to the North Side. In three starts with the Cubs, Quintana has allowed five runs on 12 hits across 19 innings. He’s struck out 25 and walked five. Quintana went from a pretty bad defensive team to one of the league’s better defensive squads. Adding a big spike in strikeouts has been a pleasant surprise for the Cubs. It may not be sustainable, but seeing Quintana with BABIPs of .273, .250, and .235 in his three starts with the Cubs is a great sign. The improved defense helps and the league switch may be providing a boost as well, since most of the league has seen him, but he is a new lefty entering the NL Central picture.

The Diamondbacks have mauled right-handed pitching this season, but haven’t done the same with southpaws. The Cubs have actually been a little bit of a disappointment offensively on the whole this season, though they have turned it around recently.

Without knowing a total, it’s tough to advocate a play on this game, but I’d be interested in the under at 8 or 8.5. It’s a getaway day game for the Diamondbacks, which is usually an under spot, and the Cubs have to go up against a very good arm in Greinke.

Detroit at Baltimore (-125); Total: 10.5

The Tigers send Matt Boyd to the mound against Chris Tillman in hopes of slowing down the suddenly-streaking Orioles. Baltimore has ripped off five straight and just swept the surging Kansas City Royals, proving once again that nobody knows anything about baseball. I’m a bit surprised to see money coming in on the Tigers and Boyd here, but we have seen some Detroit investment in recent days. Boyd does have some outliers that could regress, with a .344 BABIP and a 70.4 percent LOB%. His 5.30 ERA and 4.46 FIP show a clear disconnect, which the market may be investing in.

One consideration in all Tigers games has to be the bullpen. Detroit traded away its best reliever, Justin Wilson, prior to the Trade Deadline. Shane Greene is now the closer and just worked back-to-back days in save opps, so my guess is that he’s unavailable. There aren’t a lot of good arms out there for Brad Ausmus to use. The Orioles have a huge bullpen advantage in this game and in this series since they kept that group in tact at the Trade Deadline.

They’re going to need that bullpen today because Chris Tillman is on the mound. Tillman has been atrocious in his 64.2 starts this season with a 7.65 ERA, a 5.99 FIP, and a 5.38 xFIP. Tillman has a .378 BABIP against, even though he has allowed 14 home runs in his 14 starts. He’s shown virtually no command this season. That has a lot to do with this line move as well, since the expectation is that the Tigers will be able to have some success offensively.

My approach to this game would be to take a pre-game position on the Tigers to fade Tillman and then look to freeroll the outcome by live betting the Orioles if you get a chance. If they’re down a run or two late, they’ll be coming back at plus money. Perhaps you can find a favorable line in a tie game as well. Another thing that you could do in spots like this with bad bullpens vs. good bullpens the rest of the way, you can take a first five shot on the team with the bad pen and look to live bet after that. Certainly that could backfire, but you’re just playing the percentages and the probabilities.

New York at Cleveland (-135); Total: 8.5

Sonny Gray and Corey Kluber get together tonight at Progressive Field. To me, it looks like we’ve seen an adjustment in Cleveland’s price with Andrew Miller out of the equation. That being said, we’ve also seen an adjustment to the Yankees’ price given the lights out bullpen that they now have. It was great before, but it stands above the rest of the league now. As a result, oddsmakers have to factor that into the line. Kluber has been dominant since coming back from the DL, and he’s getting respect here, but I expected this number to open a little bit higher.

Before we look at Kluber, let’s look at the newest Yankees starter, Sonny Gray. Gray joins the Yanks after posting a 3.43 ERA with a 3.24 FIP and a 3.29 xFIP. O.co Coliseum isn’t as great for pitchers as it used to be, but it is certainly worth noting that Gray had a .206/.273/.305 slash against at home and a .262/.311/.440 slash on the road. Gray also worked 61.1 innings at home compared to 35.2 innings on the road as a member of the A’s this season. Gray’s one main outlier on the road that leads to higher numbers actually came in Cleveland on May 30 when he allowed seven runs on nine hits in 4.2 innings of work.

I take the first start with a new team on a case-by-case basis. In this instance, Gray gets a huge upgrade defensively, since Oakland was one of the worst defensive teams in baseball. That will provide a nice boost for him, especially for his 64.6 percent LOB%. I also consider that Gray will be throwing to a new catcher. He’ll also be pitching on extended rest because the A’s pushed him back twice while they tried to put together a deal. Sometimes that can be a problem for a pitcher. Gray has only made three starts since July 5 because of the All-Star Break and his schedule for this week. It hasn’t affected him, for the most part, but it’s still a consideration.

The Indians got an off day that they badly needed yesterday. Andrew Miller was placed on the DL and an overworked bullpen got a chance to rest while Mother Nature gave them a break in Boston. The game wasn’t called until after 9 p.m., so the Indians still got back to Cleveland a little bit late, but nothing compared to if the game had been played. It was nice to scratch a day off of Miller’s DL time without a game. That will be the case again on Monday and there’s some rain in the forecast for this weekend. Either way, there’s no denying that the Indians bullpen is much weaker without Miller’s services.

If it wasn’t for some guy named Chris Sale, Corey Kluber would be your Cy Young Award front-runner. Kluber has a 2.90 ERA with a 2.46 FIP and a 2.42 xFIP. He’s struck out 161 in 114.2 innings of work. Kluber missed about a month from May 2 to June 1 with a back strain. Since coming off of the DL on June 1, Kluber has a 1.86 ERA with a 1.51 FIP and a 1.72 xFIP. He’s struck out 120 in 77.1 innings of work against just 14 walks. He’s induced a lot of ground balls with a 53.2 percent GB%, which is great for the Indians given their infield defense with Jason Kipnis on the DL. In Kluber’s 11 starts since coming back, he’s struck out at least 10 batters in nine of them. This isn’t Jake Arrieta’s second-half run in his Cy Young season, but it’s pretty damn close.

Right now, I can’t bet against Kluber. It isn’t an ideal situation for the Indians, with their bullpen in a state of flux and a tough opponent in Gray, but Kluber’s been otherworldly for two months now. The offense came alive a little bit in Tuesday’s game and still has a lot of potential. The Indians are the lean for tonight.

Seattle at Kansas City (-130); Total: 9.5

It didn’t seem like this series was going to have significant playoff implications a couple months ago, but this is a big one for positioning in terms of the second wild card spot. It begins with Yovani Gallardo against Trevor Cahill. Money has come in on the Royals since this line opened, which is absolutely the right move. Cahill struggled in his Royals debut at Fenway Park last weekend, but he’s been quite good throughout the season.

There really isn’t anything that I like about Yovani Gallardo. He’s got a 5.34 ERA with a 4.86 FIP and a 4.92 xFIP on the season. He doesn’t miss many bats, he walks too many batters, and his HR/FB% is about league average. For the second straight year, his LOB% is well below league average, which has a lot to do with his poor strikeout rate. In two starts back in the rotation, Gallardo has allowed four runs on 10 hits in 10.2 innings of work with seven strikeouts against five walks. He may face one fewer threat in the Royals lineup because Lorenzo Cain is questionable with a hamstring injury, but I’m still not sure I can invest in him. To be fair, Gallardo gave up 10 runs, nine earned, in 3.2 innings of work against the White Sox on May 20. That start alone takes his ERA from 4.69 to 5.34. Would I be less disgusted with his stat line if his ERA was 4.69? Probably.

Trevor Cahill’s ERA went from 3.69 to 4.15 in his first start in the American League since 2011. Cahill gave up five runs on eight hits, including two home runs, against Boston. In 11 previous starts with the Padres, Cahill had a 3.69 ERA with a 3.39 FIP and a 3.34 xFIP. I’m just chalking that Boston start up as a throwaway. I don’t want to read too much into it. Cahill has been solid this season and has a very good arsenal. A complete lack of command and Fenway Park’s absurd dimensions led to a bad start. In terms of pitchers traded at the deadline, I don’t think anybody did better than Cahill, who went from the Padres to the Royals, which represents a huge defensive upgrade. Per defensive runs saved, Jose Quintana would win that war, but he wasn’t technically traded during the week of the deadline.

The Royals were playing over their heads quite a bit as far as I’m concerned. The sweep in Baltimore seemed to support my theory. Now, though, the Royals get back home and take on a team that is extremely inconsistent. I like Kansas City in that spot, as Cahill has had time to get comfortable with his teammates, talk with his catchers and coaches, and catch his breath after a pretty big life change with a trade.

Oakland at San Francisco (-125); Total: 8.5

I knew when the market saw an opening line of Ty Blach -130, it was going to come down. It’s happening pretty gradually, but Kendall Graveman makes his return from the DL to slot into the rotation where Sonny Gray was. As you know, I don’t like to back pitchers in their first starts back, especially with Graveman, who hasn’t pitched since May 19.

If I had to go any way with this game, despite the pitcher-friendly environment at AT&T Park, I’d look at the over. There are going to be a lot of balls in play in this game. Both teams are terrible defensively. The Giants and A’s have combined for -86 defensive runs saved this year. Oakland is far and away the worst team in the league in UZR. These are two pitchers heavily reliant on batted ball luck. That means runs could be in the forecast in the Bay Area.

MLB Picks of the Day
By Zabo Jones
Bangthebook.com

MLB Favorite of the day: Kansas City Royals -129

The Royals and Mariners are going to be playing in Kansas City Thursday night with Trevor Cahill and Yovani Gallardo starting. The Royals and Mariners are both pretty strong threats to make the second wild card spot in the American League, but the Mariners need their starting pitching to improve, especially on the back end.

Trevor Cahill was a recent acquisition by the Royals trying to improve the end of their rotation. Cahill has been a bit of a punching bag throughout his career of being a bat pitcher, but he has been very good this season. This season Cahill has an ERA of 4.15, and an xFIP of 3.51. Where Cahill is especially intriguing is that he combines a high groundball rate with a very high strikeout rate. Cahill would almost certainly not be successful if he didn’t force a lot of groundballs, because there is a strong quality of contact against him. This leads to a higher than average BABIP, but not so high that it’s worth being overly concerned about it. Ultimately, I like Cahill quite a bit.

Yovani Gallardo is not a very good starting pitcher. Gallardo started his career off in Milwaukee, where he was a terrific pitcher, but he has lost a lot of ability to strike batters out in his time. His ERA this season is at 5.34, with an xFIP of 4.97. He has a strikeout rate of 6.63, and a worse than 2:1 strikeout to walk ratio. It’s hard to figure out exactly what went wrong with Gallardo for me, but I think the biggest problem is that his sinker lost a lot of movement. With the Royals playing at home against Gallardo, I would feel good betting on them in this game.

MLB Underdog of the day: Detroit Tigers +120

The Tigers and Orioles are going to be playing in Baltimore with Charles Tillman and Matt Boyd starting. Both teams are in a bit of a strange spot in their rebuild, the Orioles actually bought a little bit this season, adding Hellickson and Beckham. The Tigers did start to sell, but they have so much money on their roster that it’s tough to see a way out. Verlander still may be available as part of a waiver deal, but I don’t expect him to get dealt anytime soon with his pay.

Starting for Baltimore is going to be Charles Tillman. Tillman has not been good, and has actually been sub replacement level this season. Tillman has an ERA of 7.65, and an xFIP of 5.39. While I don’t think Tillman is anywhere near as bad as his ERA, I think there are a lot of reasons to be legitimately concerned about his performance. For starters, he has lost a bit of velocity on his fastball, which is averaging about 1 mile per hour less than last season. This can be okay for aging pitchers, as long as there control improves, but his zone rating has also dropped about 5% from last season down to 41% this season. I don’t think that Tillman is going to be a quality starting pitcher this season.

Matt Boyd has been an interesting left handed starter for Detroit. His numbers aren’t actually that vastly different from Tillman’s, with an ERA of 5.30, and an xFIP of 5.05. His walk rate, and strikeout rate are comparable to Tillman’s, but there are some stark differences. For starters, Boyd’s zone rating is about 7% better than Tillman’s which is a pretty significant margin. While his walk rate is nearly the same as Tillman’s, given the zone rating, I think that it’s fair to say that Boyd has had some sequencing problems, so I think that it’s likely his walk rate will drop throughout the season. I like the Tigers as a value play in this situation.

MLB Over/Under of the day: Pittsburgh Pirates/Cincinnati Reds Over 9

The Reds and Pirates are going to be playing at PNC Park with Sal Romano and Chad Kuhl starting. The Pirates were very quiet at the deadline, I think largely because while they recognize they probably aren’t making the playoffs this year, they have a good enough roster to have a chance next year, especially if McCutchen continues to play well. The Reds meanwhile are in one of the worst positions in the MLB in my opinion without any clear path to contention that I can see.

Chad Kuhl is going to be starting for the Pirates at home on Thursday night. Kuhl is one of the young starters that the Pirates have been graduating to the major leagues recently. He has an ERA of 4.84, with an xFIP of 4.68. While Kuhl has had a significant problem with walking batters, projections still view him as a decent control pitcher. I tend to think that projections will look more like Kuhl’s stats going forward than what he has shown so far. What concerns me with Kuhl in this game though, is that the Reds have a pretty good offense. The Reds aren’t ever very effective at preventing runs, but they can score runs as well as almost any other team in their division. I would feel pretty good about the over in this game.

Struggling Yankees and Indians meet
By: StatFox.com

Sonny Gray will be making his Yankees debut when New York faces Cleveland on Thursday.

All of the talk after the Yankees acquired RHP Sonny Gray (6-5, 3.43 ERA, 94 K) was about how New York is now ready to contend for the World Series. This team has, however, lost three of its past four, and the Yankees are trailing the Red Sox by a game in the AL East right now. They’ll be hoping that Gray can turn in a solid start in his debut, as this is actually a huge game for his new team. The Indians are obviously very talented, but they have lost three straight and are a bit vulnerable right now. The timing couldn’t be better for Gray to be facing the lineup. As for Cleveland’s starter in this game, RHP Danny Salazar (4-5, 4.63 ERA, 93 K) will be giving it a go for the team. He has been pitching well lately, but the Yankees will still feel like they have a clear edge on the mound when they get out there in this one. One trend that stands out when looking at this game is that New York is 12-6 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season. Cleveland, however, is oddly 20-5 against the money line when playing on Thursdays over the past two seasons.

The Yankees can badly use a win on Thursday, but there will also be a ridiculous amount of pressure on Sonny Gray in this one. Pitching for the Yankees is a lot different than pitching for the Athletics, and Gray will need to find a way to keep himself calm in this one. One thing that should help him settle down is the fact that he just performed at a high level against this same Indians lineup. Gray faced Cleveland Jul. 14 and allowed zero earned runs in six innings of work. He struck out five batters in that game, and the Yankees will certainly be hoping for a similar performance here. Offensively, the Yankees can only hope that OF Aaron Judge (.299 BA, 34 HR, 75 RBI) can get it going in this one. Judge has seen his average drop from .313 to .299 over the past 10 games, and he has also struck out 17 times in that span. He was the best hitter in baseball for most of the year, but he is now hurting this team more than he is helping. If he can’t get back on track soon then the Yankees’ moves at the deadline will have been for nothing.

The Indians have lost three straight coming into this one, but they are fortunately still 2.5 games up in the division. Still, Cleveland knows that it must get back into the win column very soon. Danny Salazar is the guy that the Indians will be sending to the hill here, and he has been very solid lately. In his past two starts, Salazar has allowed a total of two earned runs in 13.0 innings of work. He has 16 strikeouts over those two contests, and he’ll need to keep missing bats on Thursday. On offense, one guy that might be able to spark this Cleveland team is OF Brandon Guyer (.227 BA, 2 HR, 15 RBI). Guyer is obviously not one of the better hitters on this team, but he has homered twice off of Gray in only six at-bats against the righty. It’d be huge if Cleveland can get some production from a guy like him, as that would take pressure off of some of the team’s other stars.