MLB Betting News and Notes Thursday, July 20th, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Brewers @ Pirates
Nelson is 3-0, 2.81 in his last four starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. Brewers are 5-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-9-2

Taillon is 2-1, 2.42 in his last four starts; under is 5-0 in his last five. Pirates are 2-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-4-3

Milwaukee lost its last four games; under is 10-3 in their last 13 games. Pittsburgh won 10 of last 12 games; under is 15-2 in their last 17 home games.

Cardinals @ Mets
Lynn is 3-1, 2,59 in his last four starts; his last three stayed under. St Louis is 5-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-8-1

Lugo is 4-2, 5.11 in six starts this year )over 4-1-1). Mets are 1-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-2

Cardinals won three of their last five games; under is 6-1-1 in their last eight games. New York lost three of its last four games; over is 5-2-1 in their last eight home games.

Diamondbacks @ Reds
Walker is 0-1, 5.18 in his last four starts; his last three stayed under. Arizona is 5-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-6-2

Castillo is 1-2, 3.41 in his first five MLB starts (under 3-2). Reds are 1-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-2

Arizona lost six of its last seven games; under is 5-2 in their last seven games. Cincinnati lost six of its last seven home games; under is 6-3 in their last nine home games.

Braves @ Dodgers
Foltynewicz is 3-0, 2.59 in his last four starts; Braves won his last seven starts- under is 4-1 in his last five. Atlanta is 4-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-6-4

McCarthy is 1-0, 4.32 in his last five starts (over 4-0-1). Dodgers are 8-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-6-1

Atlanta lost its last three games, is 10-2 in last 12 road series openers. Under is 4-2 in their last six games. Dodgers won their last 11 games; they’re 12-4 in home series openers. Under is 3-1-1 in their last five home games.

Padres @ Giants
Chacin is 2-0, 2.12 in his last three starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. San Diego is 4-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-11-2

Bumgarner is 0-3, 3.18 in five starts this year (under 3-2). Giants lost his only home start— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-4

San Diego lost its last four road games; over is 5-0-1 in their last six games. Padres are 4-11 in road series openers. Giants are 3-7 in last ten games, 5-9 in home openers. Over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games.

American League

Rangers @ Orioles
Hamels is 2-0, 0.82 in his last three starts (over 6-2-1). Texas is 2-3 in his road starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 7-0-2

Miley is 1-4, 8.17 in his last five starts (under 4-1). Orioles are 4-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-10-1

Rangers lost their last four games (under 7-2-1). Baltimore won last three games- over is 7-3 in their last ten games.

Blue Jays @ Red Sox
Liriano is 1-2, 8.36 in his last three starts; over is 8-2 in his last ten. Toronto is 4-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-6-3

Fister is 0-2, 7.36 in his last three starts (under 2-1). Boston lost his only Fenway start— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-3

Blue Jays lost five of last seven games; over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games. Boston won three of its last four games; under is 8-2-2 in their last 12 games.

New York @ Seattle
Severino is 0-2, 4.93 in his last six starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. New York is 4-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-7-2

Hernandez is 2-0, 2.45 in his last two starts; over is 4-2-1 in his last seven. Seattle is 4-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-5

New York lost eight of last 12 games; under is 8-0-1 in their last nine games. NY is 8-8 in road series openers. Mariners won six of their last seven games; under is 6-2 in their last eight. Seattle is 11-5 in home series openers, but lost last three.

Tigers @ Royals
Fulmer is 4-0, 2.93 in his last four starts; over is 8-5-2 in his last 15 starts. Detroit is 4-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-6-2

Duffy is 1-3, 5.04 in his last four starts; under is 7-2 in his last nine. Royals are 3-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-7-3

Detroit won five of last seven games; over is 8-2-1 in their last 11 road games. Kansas City lost seven of its last nine games; under is 5-3-1 in their last nine games.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
Mil-Pitt: Nelson 11-8; Taillon 6-6
StL-NY: Lynn 9-10; Lugo 4-2
Az-Cin: Walker 10-5; Castillo 2-3
Atl-LA: Foltynewicz 10-7 (7-0 last 7); McCarthy 11-4
SD-SF: Chacin 10-9; Bumgarner 0-5

American League
Tex-Balt: Hamels 5-4; Miley 9-10
Tor-Bos: Liriano 9-6; Fister 1-2
NY-Sea: Severino 9-9; Hernandez 5-5
Det-KC: Fulmer 11-7; Duffy 6-8

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
Mil-Pitt: Nelson 3-19; Taillon 2-12
StL-NY: Lynn 6-19; Lugo 2-6
Az-Cin: Walker 6-15; Castillo 1-5
Atl-LA: Foltynewicz 3-17; McCarthy 2-15
SD-SF: Chacin 8-19; Bumgarner 1-5

American League
Tex-Balt: Hamels 4-9; Miley 7-19
Tor-Bos: Liriano 7-15; Fister 1-3
NY-Sea: Severino 4-18; Hernandez 6-10
Det-KC: Fulmer 5-18; Duffy 3-14

Umpires

National League
Mil-Pitt: Under is 9-1-3 in Blakney starts this year.
StL-NY: Underdogs are 11-6 in last 17 West games.
Az-Cin: Four of last five Morales games stayed under.

American League
Tex-Balt: Four of last five HGibson games went over.
Tor-Bos: Four of last five Dreckman games went over.
Det-KC: Over is 6-3-1 in last ten Ripperger games.

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 46-38 AL, favorites -$820
AL @ NL– 49-45 NL, favorites -$628
Total: 91-87 AL, favorites -$1,448

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 47-40-2
AL @ NL: Over 49-39-3
Total: Over 96-79-5

Armadillosports.com

Thursday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Mariners (7-2 last nine) vs. Yankees

Seattle suffered through a 1-8 road stretch back in May, but that seems like a distant memory as the M’s finished off a successful 5-1 away swing to pull back to the .500 mark. Following a three-game sweep of the White Sox, the Mariners went into Houston and grabbed two of three from the AL West leaders. In each of Seattle’s last 37 wins, it has scored at least four runs, but the M’s have slumped to a 2-10 record in the last 12 games at Safeco Field.

The Mariners return home for a critical four-game series with the struggling Yankees at Safeco as ace Felix Hernandez takes the mound in the opener. Hernandez has won consecutive starts against the Athletics and White Sox, while allowing only eight hits and three runs. The M’s have lost two of Hernandez’s last three starts against the Yankees since 2015, including a 7-2 home setback two seasons ago.

Coldest team: Reds (1-5 last six) vs. D-backs

Cincinnati snapped a five-game skid in Wednesday’s 11-inning triumph over Arizona, 4-3 for its first victory since the All-Star break. However, the Reds have gone through a brutal stretch with eight series against teams currently above .500, including the last nine games against the D-backs and Nationals. Three times on this homestand, the Reds have allowed at least 10 runs, while the offense has plated just 11 runs in the past four games combined.

The good news for Cincinnati is the Reds knocked around Thursday’s starter Taijuan Walker when these teams hooked up in Phoenix prior to the All-Star break. The Reds beat Walker and the D-backs, 7-0, while tagging the right-hander for five runs in five innings. The winning pitcher in that contest was Luis Castillo, who picked up his first Major League victory by tossing 6.2 scoreless innings and striking out eight.

Hottest pitcher: Cole Hamels, Rangers (4-0, 3.05 ERA)

Hamels and Texas failed to win in his first three starts of the season, but the Rangers have turned it around by winning five of his previous six outings. In the southpaw's last two starts, Hamels hasn’t given up a run in victories over the Angels and Royals, while walking only two batters in his previous three trips to the mound. Hamels and the Rangers look to avoid the four-game sweep to the Orioles as the former Phillies’ standout allowed three first-inning runs in a 3-2 defeat at Camden Yards last August.

Coldest pitcher: Doug Fister, Red Sox (0-3, 6.75 ERA)

In 2014, Fister compiled an impressive 16-6 record to go along with a 2.41 ERA in Washington. Fister has bounced to Houston and now Boston since that career season and he has failed to pick up a victory in three starts. Fister came out of the bullpen in Saturday’s marathon loss to the Yankees, allowing three earned runs in 2.2 innings of work. Through four outings as a member of the Red Sox, Fister has been touched up for three runs or more each time, while his teams are 1-9 in his past 10 starts since last August.

Biggest OVER run: Padres (6-0 last six)

San Diego closed the first half with victories in five of its final seven games, but the Padres have slumped to a 2-4 record since the All-Star break. The Padres were swept by the Rockies at Coors Field as their pitching was lit up by allowing 36 runs, including a whopping 18 runs in Wednesday’s setback. San Diego hopes to turn things around at San Francisco as the Padres have captured all three series against the Giants this season, including a home series victory last weekend. Jhoulys Chacin makes his fourth start against San Francisco this season as the Padres are 3-0 in those games, while the OVER has hit twice.

Biggest UNDER run: Pirates (6-0 last six)

Pittsburgh looked to be sellers at the trade deadline following a dreadful start to the season, but the Pirates have won 10 of their last 12 games to creep back into the NL Central race. The Bucs are getting lifted by terrific pitching, while rallying past the Brewers in each of the first three games of their series. Pittsburgh goes for the sweep on Thursday afternoon as Jameson Taillon heads to the hill. The right-hander has cashed the UNDER in five straight starts, while the Pirates have scored four runs or less in each of those outings.

Matchup to watch: Tigers vs. Royals

Detroit traded off outfielder J.D. Martinez to Arizona earlier this week and may be looking to make more moves before the end of the month. The Tigers picked up a pair of victories over the Royals at Kauffman Stadium in the first two games of their four-game set and were on their way to a third straight triumph. However, Detroit’s shaky bullpen struck again on Wednesday as the Royals rallied for a pair of ninth inning runs to edge the Tigers, 4-3 to win for only the second time in the past nine contests.

Michael Fulmer has taken over the ace role on this Detroit pitching staff as the right-hander tries to improve on a 10-6 record and lower his 3.06 ERA. Fulmer has won four consecutive starts, including three of those wins in the favorite role. Fulmer is listed as a short favorite on Thursday as he came within one out of a complete game in a 7-3 victory over the Royals in late June.

Southpaw Danny Duffy went toe-to-toe with Cole Hamels last Saturday, but Duffy allowed a run in the ninth inning of a scoreless contest as the Royals fell to the Rangers, 1-0. Duffy has squared off with Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw, and Hamels in his past three starts, with the only victory coming at Seattle. Kansas City lost three of Duffy’s five starts against Detroit last season, including a pair of defeats at home as the left-hander hasn’t faced the Tigers in 2017.

Betcha didn’t know: The Dodgers have won a lot recently. No, that’s not the tidbit in this portion, although Los Angeles is currently 14-1 in its last 15 games. The Braves travel to Chavez Ravine for a four-game series after getting swept at home by the streaking Cubs. Right-hander Mike Foltynewicz has been on fire for Atlanta as the Braves have won each of his last seven starts, including three as an underdog of +150 or higher.

Biggest public favorite: Dodgers (-220) vs. Braves

Biggest public underdog: Brewers (+115) at Pirates

Biggest line move: Orioles (+105 to -110) vs. Rangers

MLB Betting Picks
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

St. Louis (-110) at New York (NL); Total: 9

As bad as the Cardinals have been this season, they sit only 4.5 games out in the race for the Central Division. Unfortunately, the Cubs are red hot and so are the Pirates. The Cardinals aren’t exactly in a must-win on Thursday, but banking wins during this push from other teams is crucial. They’ll look to trade candidate Lance Lynn to help them to that win. The Mets will counter with Seth Lugo.

The market has come in against Lynn a lot this season. He has a 3.40 ERA with a 5.00 FIP and a 4.52 xFIP, so it’s pretty easy to see why he doesn’t have many believers out there. Lynn’s K rate is down a bit from where it used to be, while his home run rate has taken a big step up. Lynn has a 9.1 percent HR/FB%, but it sits at 17.1 percent this year. He’s traded balls in play that became hits for home runs, as his BABIP is 70 points below his career average, but his home run rate has ballooned. If there’s any regression in that BABIP, which is very possible, he’s going to have a hard time containing that ERA. As it is, Lynn’s LOB% is 81.6 percent. He’s always been above average in that category, but has never finished a season north of 79 percent. There certainly appear to be some signs of regression.

Seth Lugo made more headlines with his hitting than his pitching last time out. Lugo hit his first Major League home run. He actually did throw a pretty solid game out at Coors Field, though. He allowed just three runs on seven hits and struck out five across 6.2 innings. Lugo was a valuable swingman for the Mets last season and was expected to be in the same role this season, but an early injury derailed his 2017 campaign. He has a 4.50 ERA with a 4.08 FIP and a 4.65 xFIP. Lugo’s periperhals don’t stand out in any way, though you could make a case for a little bit of positive regression with a .323 BABIP and a 69.3 percent LOB%.

Since we do have opposing signs of regression from these pitchers, you can make a fairly decent case for backing the Mets today. It’s an early start, so we’ll see which one of these teams is more engaged, but I’d be comfortable taking the Mets at home here.

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh (-130); Total: 8.5

The Brewers are starting to feel that pressure. The Chicago Cubs are making a push and Milwaukee, whose division lead could best be described as “precarious” is starting to buckle a little bit. Injuries in the starting rotation and an inconsistent offense have finally taken their toll, as the Brew Crew’s lead is down to 1.5 games. They’ll try to stop the bleeding with getaway day baseball in Pittsburgh between Jimmy Nelson and Jameson Taillon. Nelson is the de facto ace of this staff and the Brewers need a big start.

Nelson has a 3.27 ERA with a 3.17 FIP and a 3.23 xFIP on the season. He’s been able to pitch around a .330 BABIP with the best strikeout rate of his career at 26.7 percent. He’s cut his walk rate by 4.6 percent. He’s been really outstanding this season for the Brewers and that’s the type of start that they need tonight. Last night, the Brewers had a chance to score a 2-1 win, but Corey Knebel, who has been excellent, couldn’t hold the lead. There could be some carryover effect today, which is what worries me about backing the Brewers. This does seem like a spot that the Brewers have stepped up in a lot this season, though.

The Pirates are 10-5 in July and have cut their gap in the standings down to just 4.5 games. They’ve been on the right side of close-game variance recently, with several one-run victories, including the first two games of this series. Tonight’s hurler, Jameson Taillon, has a 3.06 ERA with a 3.31 FIP and a 3.56 xFIP. Since returning from cancer treatment on June 12, Taillon has been outstanding. He has a 2.78 ERA with a 2.36 FIP and a 3.17 xFIP. He’s struck out 34 in 32.1 innings of work with a great ground ball rate. He’s been a little bit fortunate to strand as many runners as he has, with an 80.7 percent LOB% and a .376 BABIP against, but he’s only allowed one home run and has increased his strikeouts to limit damage.

I like both of these starters a lot. PNC Park is a great pitcher’s park, so the under is definitely in play for this game. I’ve taken notice of the Brewers’ resiliency this season, so I’ve got a lean in their direction. It’s anecdotal and I can’t really prove it, other than to say that Milwaukee has limited losing streaks this season. They’ve dropped four straight heading into this one and had a five-game skid earlier this season, but they haven’t had any others of four or more games.

Arizona at Cincinnati (-105); Total: 9.5

A flipped favorite situation is the story in Cincinnati, where Taijuan Walker and the Diamondbacks are now an underdog to wrap up this series against the Reds and Luis Castillo. Coming out of the Break, I isolated the Diamondbacks as a fade team. They haven’t disappointed by losing four of their first five games in the second half. They’re also dropped 12 of their last 16. Regression was coming for this team. The pitching staff was performing well above its capabilities and the offense was doing a little too much in high-leverage spots. It doesn’t surprise me to see this and hopefully you’ve been able to cash in.

Walker has been solid this season with a 3.61 ERA and a 3.86 FIP. Part of today’s line move likely has to do with the 4.40 xFIP that suggests regression. Walker has had a 13.1 percent HR/FB% of the course of his career, but it is sitting down at 9.4 percent this season. That’s where the ERA/xFIP discrepancy is being created. His K and BB rates are fine. He’s simply done a better job of limiting long balls. Whether that changes today or not, I cannot predict, but that’s why his ERA and xFIP are so much different. Nothing else stands out in a positive or negative way.

It is worth pointing out that Walker has a 4.50 ERA at home and a 2.70 ERA on the road, with two-thirds fewer of an inning on the road. This is simply about sequencing. His slash lines against aren’t that different. He’s given up three more triples and two more home runs at home. The difference is that Walker has a 78.5 percent LOB% on the road and a 64.8 percent LOB% at home. Those two numbers should regress and meet in the middle at some point. So, for those praising his road stats, check yourselves a little bit. It’s a game of sequencing. Walker’s has been better at home and worse on the road. That’s pretty much the crux of it.

The Reds gave up 10 runs in Luis Castillo’s last start, but only three of those were his fault. The flamethrowing right-hander now has a 3.41 ERA with a 4.79 FIP and a 3.76 xFIP in his 29 innings at the MLB level. Castillo has 36 strikeouts and 14 walks, which is a pretty reasonable ratio for a guy that throws as hard as he does. What’s interesting is that he has already allowed six home runs. Balls that come in fast go out fast when hitters make good contact. He hasn’t had a home run issue at any previous stop throughout his career, so I have to think he has some better fortunes in that department the rest of the way.

The Reds have been a popular team in the market lately, with a lot of money in their direction. That’s the case here today as well. I’m not sure I can pile on, especially with the loss of value, but I understand the move.

Toronto at Boston (-125); Total: 10

Pick your poison here. Francisco Liriano has struggled a lot this season and especially of late. Doug Fister is still trying to find a rhythm and settle in. I have to say, this line looks light to me. Fister has allowed 15 runs on 20 hits in his 17 innings and he has also walked 11, so the numbers are pretty bad. However, Liriano has been bad over a large sample size and these are two teams going in very different directions.

The Blue Jays are playing themselves into sellers. The Red Sox are starting to separate themselves as the best team in the AL East. With Toronto now 10 out in the East and 5.5 in the wild card, things feel like they are slipping away. That makes this getaway day spot and the Liriano start a place where I can’t back them. It’s Boston or bust for me here.

Texas at Baltimore (-115); Total: 10

As far as I’m concerned, the line move for tonight’s Texas vs. Baltimore game is wrong. The Rangers opened a -115 favorite and now the Orioles have assumed that role. It’ll be a southpaw showdown between Cole Hamels and Wade Miley.

You won’t find many spots where I’m interested in backing the Rangers, but this is one of them. A lot of this line move is predicated on the 3.05 ERA and the 4.90 xFIP of Hamels. Hamels allowed seven runs in his first start back from injury on June 26. In the three starts since, he has worked 22 innings with just two runs allowed on nine hits, with 17 strikeouts and two walks. That’s the Cole Hamels that we’re used to seeing. The time off with an injury seems to have helped him in a big way. He’s only allowed one home run since coming back and his changeup is coming out a lot better than it was before the DL stint. I’m a buyer in Cole Hamels stock right now.

Wade Miley is awful. Miley has a 5.40 ERA with a 5.26 FIP and a 4.58 xFIP. Remember when Miley was dealing a sub-3.00 ERA several starts into the season? Since May 27, Miley has an 8.46 ERA with a 6.07 FIP and a 5.04 xFIP. He has 35 strikeouts against 27 walks in those 44.2 innings of work. He has a .400 (!!) BABIP against over his last 10 starts. That’s not bad luck. That’s bad command because he’s also allowed nine home runs.

I might have a loser here, but I’m buying Hamels and still selling Miley. Give me the Rangers and I’ll gladly scoop the value.

Detroit (-115) at Kansas City; Total: 9

The Royals are another team playing themselves into sellers. Lucky for them, the Indians can’t get out of their own way, so the deficit in the division hasn’t gotten any bigger, but that pre-All-Star Break surge for KC looks to be a thing of the past. The market is fading them today against Michael Fulmer and the Tigers. Danny Duffy will counter for the Royals.

I won’t have a horse in this race, but I do agree with the move on Fulmer. Many people got burned by Fulmer early in the season looking for regression based on his ERA/xFIP discrepancy. The dude’s just solid. Plus fastball command and a plus-plus secondary gets you a very long way in MLB these days. Fulmer has that. Duffy has a declining strikeout rate and some other concerning peripherals. The Tigers lineup isn’t nearly as dangerous without JD Martinez, but there’s enough talent left to scrape something together against Duffy.

New York (-115) at Seattle; Total: 8

The Yankees played like a tired team yesterday in Minnesota. Now they’ll have to regroup and figure it out in Seattle as they open a four-game weekend set at Safeco Field. It will be Luis Severino for the Yankees and Felix Hernandez for the Mariners. The Yankees have really been dealt some tough hands lately, with a lot of injuries, late games, and then last weekend’s fatigue-inducing series against the Red Sox with 34 innings of baseball over two days. A travel day to get out there would have been a godsend, but that is a luxury that the schedule makers did not afford the Pinstripes.

One of the challenging things about handicapping the Yankees at this point is that their bullpen is phenomenal. With Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, Tommy Kahnle, and David Robertson, the Yankees should be a heavy favorite in the late innings with a lead or in a tie game. Basically, you wind up handicapping the starting pitcher and whether or not he will turn it over with a lead. The chances of Luis Severino doing that are pretty high. Severino has a 3.40 ERA with a 3.09 FIP and a 3.11 xFIP on the season. He’s struck out 130 in 113.2 innings of work. He’s been a stabilizing force in this rotation while Masahiro Tanaka has struggled and Michael Pineda has been off and on. With Pineda now done for the year, and probably for 2018 as well, Severino has even more on his plate.

Felix Hernandez isn’t what he used to be. He has a 4.20 ERA with a 5.07 FIP and a 3.84 xFIP this season. Fortunately, he’s brought his walk rate back down a bit, but he has also allowed 12 home runs in 55.2 innings of work, which is very un-King-like. Hernandez allowed 14 home runs in 2012 when he threw 232 innings. He allowed 17 in 2010 when he pitched a career high 249.2 innings and won the Cy Young. The aging curve has hit him really hard. The control is back this season, but the command isn’t.

I want to back the Yankees here. I want to believe that Severino can outduel Hernandez and turn it over to the bullpen with a lead. The spot isn’t great for the Yankees and that does keep me from having really strong convictions. I’d still play the Yankees if I had to, but you do have to weigh a lot of factors in this game.

MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com

Double-Play Picks

Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals (+100, 9)

The Tigers have already started selling off assets by trading away J.D. Martinez to the Diamondbacks, but funny enough they’ve won two of the first three games of the series with the division rival Royals.

Now it’s Kansas City who is probably questioning whether or not they will be buyers or sellers heading into the July 31st trade deadline. Either way these AL Central foes will close out a four-game set at Kauffman Stadium Thursday night in Kansas City.

Detroit sends young ace in the making, Michael Fulmer to the mound in an attempt to win the series, while the Royals will counter left-hander Danny Duffy.

Fulmer has been fantastic for the Tigers this season, resulting in an All-Star appearance. The right-hander is 10-6 with a 3.06 ERA a 1.07 WHIP and he has been just plain dominant in his last six starts, pitching to a 2.43 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP.

Fulmer faces a Royals offense, while better of late, still ranks 27th in runs per game, 21st in average and 26th in OPS.

Duffy meanwhile, has been a consistent starter for the Royals this year, going 5-6 with a 3.51 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. But he loves pitching at Kauffman Stadium. At home the southpaw is just 2-3, but owns a very impressive 2.41 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP.

The Tigers are a good offensive team, but Martinez leaves a big hole in the lineup. Plus the Under is 6-0when Duffy starts at home this season.

Pick: Under 9

New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners (+100, 9)

The Yankees on the other hand, have decided they are going for it by acquiring third baseman Todd Frazier and reliever David Robertson from the White Sox this week. Frazier and Robertson will join their new team on the West coast as the Yanks start a series in Seattle against the Mariners Thursday night.

While the Yankees didn’t address their biggest need, starting pitching they added some much needed protection in the lineup for Aaron Judge as the Yankees offense has been struggling of late and especially on this latest road trip, as they are plating just 2.9 runs per game during the trip.

New York sends young right-hander Louis Severino to the mound for Game 1, while the Seattle asks Felix Hernandez to toe the rubber in the opener.

Severino has bounced back after a rocky 2016, going 5-4 with a 3.40 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. But what is more impressive is the strikeouts he is racking up, notching 130 to just 29 walks. On the road the numbers get better, where he is 2-1 with a 3.02 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP with 74 punch outs and 16 walks.

For Seattle, Hernandez has been less “Kingly” of late and more of a Jester not knowing what you will get from him. He is 5-3 this season with a 4.20 ERA, that’s the worst his ERA has been since 2006.

However, he has been much better in the pitcher friendly Safeco Field, where he is 4-1 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.

The Yanks’ offense obviously got better, but I think the fireworks hold of for a couple of days. Expect two strong starts Thursday night in Seattle, handed over to good and great bullpens. Plus, the Under is also 5-0 in Yankees last five games and is 6-1 in Mariners last seven games vs. a right-handed starter.

Pick: Under 8.5

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Lance Lynn, St. Louis Cardinals (8-6 3.40 ERA, $-126)

The Cardinals are another team that has been involved in trade rumors, but they are looking for some help for guys like Lance Lynn, who has been killing it lately.

Lynn has given up zero runs in his last two starts, scatting 11 hits and one walk over 13.1 innings pitched. Over his lasst four starts he is 3-1 with a 1.82 ERA and a 0.933 WHIP. St. Louis is currently -105 this afternoon today in New York against the Mets.

Slumping: Doug Fister, Boston Red Sox (0-3, 6.75 ERA, $-168)

And finally another team involved in constant trade talks it seems, the Red Sox. They may need an upgrade in the rotation if Fister continues to pitche. Simply put, he has not been good since joining Boston.

His 6.75 ERA is glaring enough, but its 11 walks in just 17.1 innings and a WHIP of 1.79 that is really troublesome. The Red Sox are currently -122 home favorites as they wrap up a series with the Jays this afternoon.

Yankees face red-hot Mariners
By: StatFox.com

The Yankees will be hoping to start turning things back around with a win over the Mariners on Thursday.

New York is only three games over .500 right now, which is pretty miserable considering where the team was just a few months ago. The Yankees are now fighting for a Wild Card spot in the postseason, and they have definitely gone out of their way to make themselves better for the rest of the year. New York went out and traded for RHP David Robertson, 3B Todd Frazier, and RHP Tommy Kahnle the other day. This deal should solidify the Yankees’ bullpen, and Frazier adds another hitter with power to the lineup. The Mariners, meanwhile, are also gunning for one of those spots in the playoffs. Seattle has won six of its past seven games, and the team is getting hot at the right time. The starters in this Thursday night matchup are set to be RHP Luis Severino (5-4, 3.40 ERA, 130 K) for New York and RHP Felix Hernandez (5-3, 4.20 ERA, 51 K) for Seattle. The Yankees have done well when playing in Seattle in recent years, as they are 5-1 when playing on the road in this series over the past three years. New York is also 18-4 against the money line after a five-game span where the bullpen had an ERA of 2.00 or better this season. Seattle, meanwhile, is 16-7 against the money line as a home underdog of +100 or higher over the past two seasons.

The Yankees really need a win on Thursday, and Luis Severino is a good guy to have on the mound in that situation. The righty was excellent his last time out, allowing only one run in seven innings of work against the Red Sox on Jul. 15. He struck out six batters in that game, and it’d be big if he can come through with a similar performance in this one. He should be able to do just that, as Severino has been better on the road than at home this season. He has a 3.02 ERA when pitching away from Yankee Stadium, and he will be happy to be in Seattle. Offensively, the Yankees can use a big performance from OF Aaron Judge (.312 BA, 30 HR, 67 RBI) in this one. Judge has struggled since the All-Star break, but it’s only a matter of time before he gets himself going again. This could be the game he does it, as Hernandez is far from being the pitcher he once was. New York can also use a good performance from new 3B Todd Frazier, who is 4-for-8 with two homers and four RBI against Hernandez in his career.

The Mariners are on a roll right now and it’ll be up to Felix Hernandez to keep it going for them. Hernandez has had a rough year, as he has dealt with some injuries and struggled overall. He has, however, been sharp in his past two outings. King Felix pitched 11 innings over those two contests and allowed only one earned run. He struck out 13 batters in those games, and he’ll be hoping to get it going against the Yankees on Thursday. As for the offense, 2B Robinson Cano (.266 BA, 18 HR, 64 RBI) is going to do his best to snap out his slump here. He is 1-for-18 over the past five games, and the Mariners really need him to get it going. There is no better time for Cano, as he would love to show out against the team that let him walk in 2014.