National League
Marlins @ Phillies
Koehler is 0-2, 7.36 in his last five starts; Miami is 4-7 in his road starts. Four of his last five starts went over the total.
Eickhoff is 2-1, 2.73 in his last four home starts; under is 9-2 in his last 11 starts. Phillies are 6-4 in his home starts.
Marlins won seven of last nine games; under is 8-3 in their last ten games. Philly lost four of last six games, under is 12-2-1 in its last 15 at home.
Brewers @ Pirates
Garza is 0-3, 10.57 in his last three starts (over 2-2-2).
Liriano is 1-6, 7.14 in his last nine starts; four of his last five went over. Pirates lost four of his last five home starts.
Brewers lost five of their last seven games; under is 6-3-2 in their last 11 games. Pittsburgh won 11 of its last 16 games; six of last seven Pirate home games went over the total.
Dodgers @ Nationals
Urias is 1-0, 3.72 in his last four starts (over 4-4).
Strasburg is 3-0, 0.94 in his last four starts; over is 13-2-1 in his last 16. Washington won all ten of his home starts.
Dodgers are 7-10 in last 17 road games, seven of LA's last nine road games went over total. Washington won six of its last eight games; six of last eight National games stayed under. .
Padres @ Cardinals
Cashner is 1-2, 6.75 in his last three starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five. San Diego is 2-4 in his road starts.
Wainwright is 3-0, 0.39 in his last three starts; his last eight stayed under. Cardinals are 7-3 in his home starts.
Padres lost their last six road games; under is 5-2 in his last seven road games. St Louis won four of last five games; under is 6-3-1 in his last ten.
Braves @ Rockies
Foltynewicz is 1-0, 1.93 in his last two starts; his last three stayed under. Atlanta is 2-3 in his road starts.
Bettis is 1-1, 5;92 in his last four starts; Colorado is 6-2 in his home starts. Five of his last six home starts went over.
Braves lost four of last six games; they're 6-10 in road series openers. Under is 11-4-2 in their last 17 road games. Colorado lost three of last four games; over is 10-4 in their last 14 games at Coors Field. Rockies are 8-7 in home series openers.
American League
Orioles @ New York
Tillman is 3-0, 1.29 in his last three starts; six of his last eight stayed under. Orioles won five of his eight road starts.
Sabathia is 0-3, 8.58 in his last five starts (over 3-1-1). New York is 3-4 in his home starts. .
Orioles are 4-10 in their last 14 road games, their last nine games stayed under. New York won seven of its last nne games, their last seven games stayed under.
Twins @ Red Sox
Duffey is 3-0, 3.08 in his last four starts; over is 8-2-1 in his last 11. Minnesota is 4-3 in his road starts.
Wright is 3-0, 6.88 in his last three starts; Boston scored 21 runs in those games- three of his last four went over the total. Red Sox won his last five home starts.
Twins won five of last seven road games; they're 5-10 in road series openers. Under is 5-0-1 in last six Minnesota games. Boston won 10 of last 12 home games; they're 9-7 in first game of a home series. Six of last seven Red Sox games stayed under the total.
Tigers @ White Sox
Pelfrey is 0-2, 7.04 in his last two starts; over is 8-5-1 in his last 14. Detroit lost seven of his nine road starts.
Shields is 2-2, 1.91 in his last four starts (over 6-2). White Sox won three of their last four home starts.
Tigers lost five of last seven road games; they're 5-11 in road series openers. Detroit's last four games stayed under. Chicago lost six of last seven games; they're 8-7 in home series openers. Five of their last seven games stayed under.
Rays @ A's
Moore is 0-2, 4.05 in his last four starts; seven of his last eight stayed under. Tampa Bay is 0-7 in his road starts.
Gray is 1-1, 3.00 in his last two starts; Oakland is 3-5 in his home starts. Over is 4-1-1 in his home outings.
Tampa Bay scored 21 runs in winning its last two games, after losing 11 in row on the road. Rays are 5-10 in road series openers. Oakland is 6-4 in its last 10 games; they've won 10 of last 11 series openers. Over is 6-3-1 in their last ten home games.
Teams won-lost records when this pitcher starts:
Mia-Phil-- Koehler 7-12; Eickhoff 9-10
Mil-Pitt-- Garza 1-5; Liriano 8-10
LA-Wsh-- Urias 5-3; Strasburg 16-1
Atl-Col-- Foltynewicz 4-6; Bettis 11-8
SD-StL-- Cashner 7-7; Wainwright 13-6
Balt-NY-- Tillman 17-3; Sabathia 8-8
Min-Bos-- Duffey 7-8 (5-0 last 5); Wright 11-7
Det-Chi-- Pelfrey 7-11; Shields 3-5/2-9
TB-A's-- Moore 7-12; Gray 6-11
Starting pitchers allowing 1+ runs in first inning:
Mia-Phil-- Koehler 6-19; Eickhoff 6-19
Mil-Pitt-- Garza 2-6; Liriano 4-18
LA-Wsh-- Urias 1-8; Strasburg 4-17
Atl-Col-- Foltynewicz 3-10; Bettis 8-19
SD-StL-- Cashner 4-13; Wainwright 6-19
Balt-NY-- Tillman 7-20; Sabathia 2-16
Min-Bos-- Duffey 4-15; Wright 5-18
Det-Chi-- Pelfrey 9-18; Shields 8-19
TB-A's-- Moore 3-19; Gray 3-17
Armadillosports.com
MLB: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals
Stephen Strasburg still hasn’t dropped a decision this year (13-0) and the Washington Nationals have gone 16-1 overall with him starting. Strasburg toes the rubber Thursday afternoon in the Nations Capital against visiting Los Angeles Dodgers. Sports Interaction currently has Washington -$2.15 home favorites.
Expect the Nationals to do what they typically do with Strasburg on the mound and that's win! Strasburg loves home cooking, the righthander is 11-1 his last eighteen in front of the home audience with Nats 17-1 in those games. Matching that, Strasburg is 7-0 in his last 13 day games with a 12-1 Team Start Record in those contest. He'll square off against Dodgers' lefty Julio Urias being brought up from Triple-A to make the spot start.
Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates
The pitching matchup in this game is one that should have MLB bettors sitting on the sidelines. Francisco Liriano is the starter for the Pirates, while Matt Garza is the starter for the Brewers. Liriano is winless in his last five at PNC Park (1-4 TSR) and heads to the hill 0-4 his last six vs Brewers (2-4 TSR). On the other mound, Brewers are 1-5 in Gaza's six starts, 0-5 in his road starts, 3-11 in his last fourteen starts in unfriedly territory.
Thursday's Diamond Notes
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Red Sox (10-2 last 12)
Drew Pomeranz didn’t have the debut Boston envisioned, failing to get an out in the fourth inning after being staked to an 8-0 lead against the Giants. The bats and the bullpen bailed the Red Sox out. Hanley Ramirez’s three home runs helped fuel a two-game sweep of San Francisco, which combined with New York’s third straight win over Baltimore, moved Boston into first place in the AL East. Over their current run, the Red Sox have won every time they score at least four runs, averaging 7.2 runs over their 10 victories. A nine-game homestand at Fenway continues with Minnesota coming into town for a four-game set, and even though the Twins come off consecutive wins at Detroit, they still own MLB’s worst road record (15-30). Steven Wright (11-5, 2.78 ERA) owns the lowest ERA among Red Sox starters and can catch Rick Porcello for the team lead in wins if he gets the victory here. Wright surrendered a single unearned run over 7.1 innings in an 8-1 triumph at Minnesota on June 10. Tyler Duffey (5-6, 5.23) was the losing pitcher that night, giving up six runs on 10 hits. It’s therefore no surprise to see Boston so (-220) heavily favored.
Coldest team: White Sox (1-6 last seven)
After surrendering an 11th-inning home run to Leonys Martin, the second walk-off blast they were subjected to in Seattle, the White Sox return to Chicago hoping to avoid a seventh loss in eight games. They’re in danger of falling three games under .500 for the second time, so this four-game series reeks of desperation for both teams since the Tigers come in having lost two straight against the lowly Twins to fall back in the Wild Card chase. Detroit swept the first three meetings between these teams, but dropped two of three in Chicago in mid-June. They’ll play one another 14 more times this season, so it will be interesting to see how both teams respond in this series opener. James Shields (4-11, 5.10) was brought in to help aid a playoff push, so it’s fitting that he gets the ball for Chicago with its season collapsing. After falling flat on his face by giving up 23 runs over three starts where he lasted a total of 8.2 innings, Shields has rebounded by just six runs over 28.1 innings over his last four outings.
Hottest pitcher: Chris Tillman (13-2, 3.29 ERA)
Washington’s Stephen Strasburg (13-0, 2.51) has been brilliant, but we’ll touch on his bid to stay perfect against the Dodgers down below. While the Nationals are 16-1 in Strasburg’s starts, the Orioles are 17-3 when their ace gets the ball, which includes a perfect 12-0 at home. Unfortunately, the Birds find themselves in Yankee Stadium hoping Tillman can prevent a four-game sweep that has cost them their cushion in the division. Tillman has pitched in a pair of victories over the Yanks at Camden Yards, but was hit hard in the last start on June 3 as New York homered three times and produced five runs in 5.2 innings. Tillman closed July by taking his second loss in Seattle, but is a perfect 3-0 this month, giving up just three runs in 21 innings. Tillman snapped Baltimore’s longest losing streak of the season at five games on July 5 with a 5-1 win at Dodger Stadium and will try to prevent a fifth consecutive loss here.
Coldest pitcher: Mike Pelfrey (2-9, 4.95 ERA)
Pelfrey opened July in danger of losing his spot in the rotation, but rebounded by giving the Tigers a pair of starts where the he got into the seventh inning having allowed only one run at Tampa Bay and Toronto. He then couldn’t get out of the second inning on Saturday against Kansas City, walking four of the 14 batters he faced and giving up five runs. Detroit has seen the ‘under’ prevail in nine of its last 10 game, with Pelfrey’s July 16 start serving as the anomaly. The Tigers have scored a total of four runs over the past three games and haven’t scored more than four times in a single contest since way back on July 6, so Pelfrey has little room for error in this matchup with the White Sox, who he’s 1-1 against this season.
Biggest UNDER run: Rays (10-2-2 last 14)
There’s competition here given the aforementioned Tigers run and the ‘under’ on an 8-0 steak in Orioles games, but we’ll concentrate on the Rays here since there’s a pretty good pitching matchup worth examining. Tampa Bay scored 21 runs over the past two days in victories in Colorado, but will now transition to one of the friendliest pitcher’s parks in baseball out in Oakland. Lefty Matt Moore (5-7, 4.33) has pitched in five consecutive games where the number has come in below the posted total. Meanwhile, A’s ace Sonny Gray (4-8, 5.12) is pitching to potentially earn himself a ticket out of town and on to a contender. Although his numbers are horrific, the 26-year-old righty has pitched much better of late, allowing here earned runs or fewer in six of his last eight starts. Gray gave up three homers in a 7-6 win at Tampa Bay on May 15, so we’ll see if his improved form yields better results. Oddsmakers have set this total at 8.
Biggest OVER run: Dodgers (8-2, last 10 road games)
At a time where most teams are playing lower-scoring games, this trend of the Dodgers playing high-scoring games away from Chavez Ravine continued last night after Anthony Rendon’s eighth-inning solo home run eclipsed the posted total of 8.5. Can the run continue against Strasburg? Washington’s ace has allowed no more than a single run in a game over his last four outings and has given up just five hits over 21.2 inning this month upon coming off the disabled list. This will be his first time seeing the Dodgers this season and he really doesn’t have much history against any roster member not named Chase Utley (4-for-27). No current Dodger owns a home run against him, though Adrian Gonzalez is 4-for-9 with a double. Perhaps the Nats can do the heavy lifting on an ‘over’ call against 19-year-old Julio Urias (1-2, 4.95) since they’ve blessed Strasburg with tremendous run support all season. The lowest output Washington has managed in a Strasburg start this season has been three runs and it has averaged 6.7 runs per game over his 17 starts. Urias had been pitching out of the bullpen in Triple-A before being called up to take this start, his first since surrendering five runs in just 3.1 innings on July 4 against Baltimore. Oddsmakers have set the total at 8. The WestgateLV Superbook had it available at 7.5 on Thursday morning.
Matchup to watch: Marlins at Phillies
Because all three games thus far have been tightly contested and Miami returns home for a huge three-game set against the Mets this weekend, we’ve got our eyes on this series finale. The Marlins dropped a 4-1 decision against Jeremy Hellickson and the Phillies on Wednesday night but remain one game ahead of New York and St. Louis for possession of the second NL Wild Card. The Dodgers own the first one, just one game up themselves. Although over two months remain, the Fish have to take advantage of games against inferior competition if they’re going to reach the postseason. They’re 4-8 against the lowly Braves and are just 4-5 against the Phillies entering this one. This one is going off as basically a pick’em, so we’ll see if the Marlins can rise up to avoid squandering another opportunity against a sub-.500 team. Righties Tom Koehler (6-8, 4.68) and Jerad Eickhoff (6-10, 3.76) square off. Miami’s Koehler is 0-1 against the Phils despite a 1.93 ERA over 14 innings, while Eickhoff lost at home 5-3 on May 16. He pitched six shutout innings in South Florida to win his major league debut against the Marlins last season. Philadelphia has won six of the last eight times he’s taken the mound.
Betcha didn’t know: Cardinals third-baseman Jedd Gyorko, filling in for the injured Matt Carpenter, is tormenting his former team, hitting three home runs in Wednesday's doubleheader sweep. He's 7-for-10 with four homers in the series and will be looking to join Barry Bonds and Chipper Jones as the only players ever to homer in six straight games against San Diego. The Padres are doing some thumping themselves, having gone deep in 18 straight contests, which is the National League's longest streak since 2010 (Reds). In order to extend that run, they'll have to snap Adam Wainwright's run of not allowing a homer in eight straight contests. Wil Myers homered off Wainwright (9-5, 4.15) in the first inning of a 4-1 win back on April 15, setting the tone. Padres starter Andrew Cashner (4-7, 5.05) will face his former teammate Gyorko for the first time.
Biggest public favorite: Pirates (-175) vs. Brewers
Biggest public underdog: Rays (+120) at A's
Biggest line move: Yankees (+102 to -115) vs. Orioles
Thursday's MLB Game of the Day: Tigers at White Sox
By Covers.com
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox (A: +105, H: -125, Total: 10.5)
The Detroit Tigers are trying to remain in range of the American League Central-leading Cleveland Indians as they open a four-game series on Thursday against the host Chicago White Sox. Detroit is a distant 7 1/2 games behind the soaring Indians and the club's better option may be focusing on closing in on Toronto, Boston and Houston in the wild-card race.
Chicago has fallen 10 games behind the Indians after a 1-5 road trip that concluded with Wednesday's 6-5 loss in 11 innings to the Seattle Mariners, marking the second time in three games that the White Sox blew a late three-run lead. "It is tough, especially when you're leading both the ones that you lose late," White Sox manager Robin Ventura told reporters afterward. “Those are always tough to be able to bounce back." The Tigers will try to get their bats moving again after scoring just four total runs while losing two of three home games to the AL-worst Minnesota Twins. Detroit second baseman Ian Kinsler is 8-for-24 with three homers since the resumption of play after the All-Star break and hit his 36th career leadoff homer for the lone run in Wednesday's 4-1 loss to the Twins.
INJURY REPORT:
Tigers - LF T. Collins (Questionable Thursday, neck), RF J. Martinez (15-Day DL, elbow).
White Sox - C A. Avila (15-Day DL, hamstring), RP Z. Putnam (15-Day DL, elbow), CF A. Jackson (15-Day DL, knee).
WEATHER REPORT: There is a chance of thunderstorms to develop in Chicago on Thursday night with a 50 percent chance of rain. Temperatures will be in the upper-80's with humidity values hovering around an uncomfortable 70 percent. There will also be a 10 mph wind blowing out to left at U.S. Cellular Field tonight.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Tigers RH Mike Pelfrey (2-9, 4.95 ERA) vs. White Sox RH James Shields (4-11, 5.10)
Pelfrey gave up two runs and five hits in six innings while beating the White Sox on June 4 - the lone time he has beaten Chicago in 10 career starts. He lost 11 days later when he gave up four runs and seven hits in six innings and is 1-5 with a 5.81 ERA lifetime against the White Sox. Pelfrey is 0-6 in nine road starts this season despite a respectable 3.53 ERA.
Shields was superb in his last outing when he gave up one run and two hits in eight innings but he suffered the loss in a 1-0 decision against the Los Angeles Angels. He has a 1.91 ERA over his last four starts - allowing two or fewer runs in each - after initially struggling upon being acquired from the San Diego Padres in early June. Shields is 7-6 with a 4.36 ERA in 20 career starts against the Tigers.
TRENDS:
* Tigers are 10-2 in their last 12 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
* Tigers are 1-5 in Pelfrey's last 6 road starts.
* White Sox are 1-6 in their last 7 overall.
* Under is 7-0 in Tigers last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
* Under is 5-0 in Pelfrey's last 5 road starts.
* Over is 4-0 in Shields' last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
CONSENSUS: The public is favoring the home favorite Detroit Tigers at a rate of 53 percent in this battle of struggling starting pitchers. In a less than surprising development, Over 10.5 is getting 60 percent of the total action.