MLB Betting News and Notes Thursday, July 27th, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Brewers @ Nationals
Blazek is making his first MLB start after 108 relief stints (120.2 IP). He is 2-2, 3.13 in 20 AAA games this season (10 starts, 63.1 IP).

Scherzer is 3-0, 3.14 in his last five starts; his last four went over. Washington is 5-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-5-2

Brewers lost eight of last ten games; under is 8-3 in their last 11. Washington is 9-3 in its last 12 games; under is 6-2 in their last eight games.

Reds @ Marlins
Stephenson allowed five runs in 5.1 IP (100 PT) in his first ’17 start, at home vs Miami (under 1-0)— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-0-1

O’Grady is 1-1, 5.40 in three starts this year (under 2-1). Miami is 2-0 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-1-1

Cincinnati is 2-11 in its last 13 games, 6-12 in road series openers. Under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 road games. Miami won four of last six games; they scored 22 runs last night. Marlins are 6-3 in last nine home series openers. Last three Miami games went over.

Diamondbacks @ Cardinals
Godley is 0-3, 5.55 in his last four starts; over is 4-3 in his road starts. Arizona is — their first 5-inning record with him:

Weaver is making his first ‘17 start; he is 1-4, 5.28 in 12 MLB games (8 starts). He is 9-1, 1.91 in 13 AAA starts this year- he’s thrown 3 scoreless innings in two MLB relief stints this season.

Arizona is 1-5 in game following its last six wins; over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Snakes are 9-6 in road series openers. St Louis won its last three games; they’re 6-2 in last eight home series openers. Under is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games.

Mets @ Padres
Flexen is making his first MLB start; he was 6-1, 1.76 in 10 AA starts this season.

Perdomo is 3-0, 4.03 in his last four starts that weren’t in Denver. Three of his last four starts went over total. San Diego is 6-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-5-4

Mets won six of last eight games; over is 5-1 in their last five games. San Diego lost three of last five games; over is 10-2-1 in their last 13.

American League

A’s @ Blue Jays
Manaea is 1-1, 3.76 in his last four starts; over is 6-2 in his last eight. A’s are 4-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-6-5

Stroman is 1-0, 2.11 in his last three starts; under is 4-0-1 in his last five. Toronto is 6-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-8-1

Oakland lost seven of last nine games; under is 3-1 in their last four. Blue Jays won their last three games; under is 4-1 in their last five.

Angels @ Indians
Ramirez is 2-1, 3.50 in his last three starts; under is 11-8 in his starts. Angels are 6-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-8-4

Bauer is 1-2, 9.28 in his last three starts; under is 10-5 in his last 15. Indians are 5-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-8-2

Angels lost their last three games; over is 5-1 in their last six games. Cleveland won nine of last ten home games; over is 5-2 in their last seven overall.

Rays @ New York
Archer is 1-3, 4.78 in his last six starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five. Tampa Bay is 5-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-4-5

Sabathia is 7-1, 1.98 in his last nine starts; under is 9-1 in his last ten. New York is 5-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-6-1

Rays lost five of last seven games, but won last two; they’re 12-5 in road series openers. Under is 7-2-1 in their last ten games. New York won five of last six games; they’re 9-6 in home series openers. Three of their last four games went over.

Interleague

Cubs @ White Sox
Lester is 2-0, 1.80 in his last two starts; under is 7-3 in his last ten. Cubs are 5-4 in his road starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 7-10-4

Pelfrey is 0-3, 5.87 in his last five starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight. Pale Hose are 3-5 in his home starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 7-7-2

White Sox are 1-10 since All-Star break; under is 3-1-1 in their last five games. Cubs are 10-2 since All-Star break; under is 6-3-1 in their last ten games.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
Mil-Wsh: Blazek 0-0; Scherzer 13-7
Cin-Mia: Stephenson 0-1; O’Grady 2-1
Az-StL: Godley 8-5; Weaver 0-0
NY-SD: Flexen 0-0; Perdomo 7-10

American League
A’s-Tor: Manaea 9-9; Stroman 12-8
LAA-Clev: Ramirez Bauer 9-10
TB-NYY: Archer 11-10; Sabathia 12-4

Interleague
Chi-Chi: Lester 12-9; Pelfrey 6-10

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
Mil-Wsh: Blazek 0-0; Scherzer 5-20
Cin-Mia: Stephenson 1-1; O’Grady 2-3
Az-StL: Godley 2-13; Weaver 0-0
NY-SD: Flexen 0-0; Perdomo 7-17

American League
A’s-Tor: Manaea 4-18; Stroman 4-20
LAA-Clev: Ramirez Bauer 4-19
TB-NYY: Archer 5-21; Sabathia 4-16

Interleague
Chi-Chi: Lester 9-21; Pelfrey 4-16

Interleague

Interleague play
NL @ AL– 51-40 AL, favorites -$677
AL @ NL– 56-49 NL, favorites -$366
Total: 100-96 AL, favorites -$1,043

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 47-44-2
AL @ NL: Over 60-42-4
Total: Over 105-86-6

Armadillosports.com

Thursday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Indians (6-0 last six) vs. Angels

Cleveland looks to finish off a perfect homestand this afternoon and pull off the sweep of Los Angeles. The Indians have heated up offensively since returning to Progressive Field by scoring double-digit runs three times, including plating 21 runs in the first two wins over the Angels. Cleveland hasn’t managed to pull away from Kansas City in the AL Central thanks to the Royals winning eight in a row, but the Tribe is currently in a stretch of playing six consecutive teams that are sitting below the .500 mark.

Trevor Bauer rebounded from a pair of losses to the Padres and Athletics by beating Toronto in his past start. The Indians’ right-hander scattered six hits in five innings of a 13-3 victory over the Blue Jays for his first win in nearly a month. The Los Angeles native beat the Angels at home last season, while picking up a no-decision in a 4-3 walk-off loss in Anaheim despite pitching eight innings.

Coldest team: White Sox (1-9 last 10) vs. Cubs

The Crosstown Cup started with the White Sox upsetting the defending champions on Monday, 3-1 at Wrigley Field. The Cubs bounced back with consecutive blowouts in the next two games as the Windy City rivals finish up their series on Thursday at Guaranteed Rate Field. The Sox have won only one game since the All-Star break, while posting a dreadful 0-6 record at home.

The Pale Hose will look to break through at home as heavy underdogs with Mike Pelfrey heading to the mound. Pelfrey is winless in his past three starts, while not lasting past the fifth inning in each off his past five outings.

Hottest pitcher: CC Sabathia, Yankees (9-3, 3.44 ERA)

The most consistent pitcher for New York this season won a Cy Young award back in 2007. Sabathia is fresh off a pair of road victories at Boston and Seattle since the All-Star break, while allowing six hits and one earned run in 11 innings of work. The Bronx Bombers have compiled a solid 12-4 record in his 16 starts this season, including a 5-1 mark at Yankee Stadium. Sabathia beat the Rays twice this season at Tropicana Field, even though he lasted five innings in each outing.

Coldest pitcher: Robert Stephenson, Reds (0-3, 8.10 ERA)

Cincinnati has slumped to a 2-11 record since the All-Star break, including three straight road losses to Cleveland and New York. The Reds travel to Miami for a four-game series as Stephenson is making his second start against the Marlins in less than a week. Stephenson didn’t finish the sixth inning as he allowed five earned runs and eight hits in a 5-4 home defeat to Miami. Those numbers in that start were an improvement from his previous appearance at Toronto on May 29 as he was knocked around for 10 hits and seven runs in two innings of relief in a 17-2 drubbing.

Biggest OVER run: Padres (11-1-1 last 13)

San Diego finally broke through against New York last night, doubling up the Mets, 6-3 as the Padres go for the series split this evening. During this long OVER stretch, there has been no rhyme or reason on how the Padres are playing in high-scoring games. Nine times in this span, the Padres have scored five runs or more, but San Diego has allowed at least five runs on eight occasions. Luis Perdomo is making his first home start for the Padres since June 28 as three of his previous four starts have sailed OVER the total.

Biggest UNDER run: Athletics (4-0 last four)

Oakland’s offense has gone south north of the border in Toronto the last three days by scoring a total of five runs. The A’s were three outs away from beating the Blue Jays on Wednesday, but the Blue Jays hit two runs in the ninth inning to edge Oakland, 3-2. Oakland has failed to bust the three-run plateau in the past four contests, but the A’s have fared well in the past five series finales by posting a 4-1 mark. Sean Manaea takes the mound for Oakland in the finale as the southpaw has hit the OVER in three straight starts, while putting together a 4-0 OVER streak in the past four away starts.

Matchup to watch: Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals

St. Louis has put together probably the most erratic season of any team this season. The Cardinals started slow, then moved to the top of the NL Central before faltering again. The Redbirds are back on the winning track after pulling off a three-game sweep of the struggling Rockies to pull within one game of the .500 mark, while improving to 6-1 in the previous seven contests at Busch Stadium.

The Diamondbacks head to St. Louis following a 3-3 homestand, capped off by a 10-3 blowout of the Braves on Wednesday. Arizona dropped two of three to St. Louis at Chase Field in late June with the only victory coming in extra innings in the opener. Zack Godley ended a three-start losing skid in his last outing for the D-backs in spite of picking up a no-decision. Arizona staved off Washington, 6-5 after blowing a 5-0 lead as the right-hander struck out a season-high 10 batters.

The Cardinals counter with right-hander Luke Weaver, who is making his season debut in the starting role. The former Florida State standout has tossed three innings in relief this season, while posting a 1-4 record with a 5.70 ERA in his rookie campaign of 2016. The Cardinals look to improve on a 5-2 record in its previous seven series openers, including three straight wins in this situation.

Betcha didn’t know: Max Scherzer attempts to rebound from a tough start, literally in his last outing. The Washington ace surrendered three consecutive home runs to begin last Saturday’s start in Arizona as the Nationals fell short in a 6-5 defeat. Washington battles Milwaukee in the rubber game of their series this afternoon as the Nats own a perfect 6-0 record this season when Scherzer takes the mound following a loss in his last appearance.

Biggest public favorite: Cubs (-235) at White Sox

Biggest public underdog: Reds (+125) at Marlins

Biggest line move: Angels (+145 to +135) at Indians

MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Los Angeles at Cleveland (-145); Total: 9.5

I understand the line move in this game, with JC Ramirez up against Trevor Bauer, but there’s no way I’d look to back a team like the Angels in a spot like this. The Indians are going for a homestand sweep and realize that they need to keep banking wins with the way that the Royals are playing. The Angels aren’t going anywhere this season and have played some long games in this series while giving up a ton of runs.

This is where I have a bit of a disconnect from the “bet numbers, not teams” crowd. While I fully understand and appreciate the idea of getting out in front of a line move, getting CLV, and betting when a line looks off, I feel like I’m not doing a good enough job of handicapping if I don’t apply the proper context.

Maybe the Indians do lose. Maybe they don’t show up. You won’t find me betting on a subpar West Coast team playing a 12:10 p.m. ET game staring down the barrel of a sweep by an underachieving team for most of the season.

Oakland at Toronto (-160); Total: 9

The Blue Jays are a little heavy of a favorite in my estimation, but a similar theory applies with regards to backing Oakland. Toronto just walked it off against the Oakland bullpen to dole out some of the bad luck that they have experienced most of the season. They’ll ride ace Marcus Stroman into today’s start.

What I am very interested in is the under. I love Sean Manaea. I’ve talked about him a lot this season, but I think he’s a seriously undervalued pitcher. Manaea has a 3.82 ERA with a 3.56 FIP and a 4.19 xFIP on the year. He’s one of the few guys that has actually improved his HR/FB% in the face of the 2017 power explosion. His HR/FB% is down five percent this season. His strikeout rate is up a good amount. He has 103 strikeouts in 106 innings of work. Manaea has a unique arm slot for a lefty that seems to give teams some problems. It’s not like the Blue Jays have seen much of Manaea in his career. Since Manaea’s LOB% fortunes started to turn, he’s posted a 3.14 ERA over his last 11 starts.

Marcus Stroman was pushed too far in his start on Saturday in my estimation, so I am a little bit worried about him here. He threw 117 pitches to get through 7.2 innings of work. On the year, Stroman has a 2.98 ERA with a 3.80 FIP and a 3.55 xFIP. His average strikeout rate has a negative impact on his FIP, but he’s an extreme ground ball guy with an 80.3 percent LOB%. He has a 62.4 percent GB%. I’ve talked about some concerns with Stroman with regards to his splits from the windup and from the stretch, but he’s been able to minimize damage at every turn.

My concerns about Stroman are relatively minor against a lineup like this. Oakland scores via the long ball. They have a lot of guys that have bought stock in launch angles. Stroman doesn’t allow many fly balls. As a result, this is a very good matchup for him.

I’d be really surprised to see this game go over the total, so I’ll be looking for a low scoring affair at Rogers Centre. Oakland heads home after this into a tough weekend of watching teammates get traded. They shouldn’t have a ton of interest today.

Tampa Bay at New York (-115); Total: 8.5

Chris Archer takes the ball for the Rays against CC Sabathia and the Yankees tonight at Yankee Stadium. The Rays ace is having a fine season with a 3.77 ERA, a 3.10 FIP, and a 3.44 xFIP. He’s struck out 167 in 136 innings of work. He’s also cut his home run rate back to his 2014 and 2015 levels in the face of baseball’s huge spike in dingers, so that is a really impressive feat. Archer is actually having the best strikeout season of his career, but a .326 BABIP is a primary cause for his increased ERA relative to his advanced metrics.

Archer has been the victim of the Rays bullpen a few times this year, which has both cost him some runs and also some pitcher wins. Not that those matter, but Archer’s season seems to be lost in the shuffle, even though he’s on pace for just his second five-WAR season.

CC Sabathia deserves a lot of credit. He continues to find ways to be an effective pitcher in the ever-changing baseball landscape. He’s cut his HR/FB% for the third straight season. He has a 3.44 ERA with a 4.19 FIP and a 4.50 xFIP. There certainly appears to be some regression in there with a .272 BABIP, which is the lowest of his entire career, which dates back to 2001, and his 76.9 percent LOB, which is his lowest since 2008. It is fair to wonder how long that will continue, but the Rays are 13-17 against left-handed starters and rank 21st in wOBA at .306. They rank third in K% in that split. The 9.9 percent BB% actually saves Tampa Bay because the SLG ranks 23rd at .389.

Given the massive advantage that the Yankees bullpen has over pretty much every bullpen, especially Tampa Bay’s, it’s hard not to look at them with prices like this, even with a disadvantage in the starting pitcher arms race. I’m a big fan of Archer, but I also appreciate what Sabathia is doing this season and this start comes against a team with a pretty big platoon split. As long as CC can keep this thing close, the Yankees will have a shot in the late innings and I like the -115 price tag because of that.

New York at San Diego (-110); Total: 8.5

The Mets will turn to 23-year-old Chris Flexen for Thursday night’s start against the San Diego Padres. Flexen makes the leap straight from Double-A Binghamton to take the Major League mound. Flexen actually hadn’t pitched above A+ up until this season. He got to Double-A and shined with a 50/7 K/BB rate in 48.2 innings of work. He only allowed 10 runs, one unearned, on 28 hits with a 1.66 ERA, a 2.69 FIP, and a 2.43 xFIP. Flexen has everything you could want in a prospect. He misses bats, he has good control, and he induces a lot of ground balls. Looking at his batted ball directions in the minor leagues, he must have great command on the outer half of the plate, because hitters have been forced to go the other way a lot.

Scouts don’t seem as impressed with Flexen as the numbers would suggest. Eric Longenhagen’s preseason write-up at Fangraphs mentioned that some view Flexen as a pen arm and others see a fringy MLB starter. He is a post-Tommy John guy, which waters down the projection a little bit. A June 19 update from Longenhagen spoke about Flexen showing an above average slider and good control with all four pitchers. We’ll have to see how this plays out.

Luis Perdomo has a 4.71 ERA with a 4.32 FIP and a 4.01 xFIP. The Padres bullpen got weaker earlier this week with the trade that sent both Brandon Maurer and Ryan Buchter to Kansas City. Brad Hand will go soon as well. Perdomo is a guy that has deserved a better fate this season. He has a 65.3 percent GB%, but has a .343 BABIP against and a 67.7 percent LOB%. The luck and variance metrics are not on his side, hence the 4.71 ERA. The problem is that I don’t know if positive regression comes at all with a very bad defensive team in San Diego.

I won’t be interested in this game, but with Flexen likely making more MLB starts, I’ll keep an eye on him.

Diamondbacks, Cardinals meet
By: Zach Cohen
StatFox.com

The Cardinals will be hoping to get back to .500 with a win over the Diamondbacks on Thursday.

The Diamondbacks have won two of their past three series after taking two games from the Braves last series. Arizona beat Atlanta 10-3 on Wednesday night and will now head into this one with a ton of confidence. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have now won three straight games and four of their past six. They badly need to keep this winning streak going, as they can fall behind in the NL Central at any moment. This series is huge for them, and you should expect them to play with a lot of energy. The starters in this Thursday night game are set to be RHP Zack Godley (3-4, 3.32 ERA, 84 K) for the Diamondbacks and RHP Luke Weaver (0.00 ERA in 3 IP) for the Cardinals. One trend that favors Arizona in this game is the fact that the team is 7-1 against the money line this season when coming off of three or more consecutive Overs. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are only 1-4 against the money line this season when coming off of a game with a combined score of 15 or more runs.

The Diamondbacks are playing well right now and they will be hoping to keep it up with Godley on the mound in this one. The righty has been rock solid this season, as he has allowed three or fewer earned runs in all but two of his starts. Unfortunately for both he and the team, those two games where he allowed more than three were in his most recent two outings. He gave up four earned in 5.2 innings in a win over the Nationals last game, and six earned in six innings in a loss to the Braves the game before. The Diamondbacks need him to dial back in and perform at a higher level in this one. Offensively, the two guys to keep an eye on in this one are 1B Paul Goldschmidt (.314 BA, 21 HR, 75 RBI) and OF J.D. Martinez (.301 BA, 19 HR, 46 RBI). Goldschmidt has gotten two hits in each of his past two games, and he has been one of the best hitters in the league all year. Martinez, meanwhile, seems to love his new home. He had three homers and seven RBI in the series victory over the Braves.

The Cardinals are playing well right now, but they can really use a win in this series against the Diamondbacks. If that is going to happen then it’s important that Luke Weaver gets the series started off with a victory. Weaver has not allowed a run in three innings of relief work this season, but he’s now getting his first chance to start on the year. He probably won’t have the green light to throw too many pitches, but it’d be huge if he can give St. Louis five or so innings of solid work. On offense, keep an eye on OF Tommy Pham (.312 BA, 14 HR, 44 RBI) in this game. Pham has burst onto the scene this season, and he just might be the Cardinals’ best hitter now. He hit only .226 in 78 games last year, but he is now at .312 in 72 games this season. If he can keep it up then it’d be huge for St. Louis.

Thursday's Best Bet
Vegasinsider.com

Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox

Odds: Chicago Cubs (-240), Chicago White Sox (+213); Total 10.5

After dropping the opener of this two-game, home-and-home crosstown series, the Cubs have really broken their bats out in taking the next two games of this series. The defending World Series champs from the north side have won two in a row by putting up 7 and 8 runs respectively, fully taking advantage of a White Sox team that's selling off the farm and building for the future.

The Cubs have really kicked things into gear since returning from the All-Star break and with a huge series essentially for first place in the NL Central on deck with Milwaukee, the Cubs would hate a slip up tonight. Could it happen?

Given the current trajectory of both teams this year it's no surprise to see the Cubs coming in as heavy chalk once again. The “Northsiders” have Jon Lester on the hill this evening and he and his teammates do deserve to be somewhat heavy favorites tonight. However, this line might be a little inflated given the perspective of both teams (Cubs rolling, White Sox in sell mode) and it's not like the AL squad doesn't have a few things lining up positively for them.

For starters, the forecast is calling for the strong Chicago winds to be blowing straight across to right field and a little out. That's not particularly good news for the lefty Lester, as the White Sox will unquestionably load up their lineup with as many right-handed bats as possible.

The White Sox rank 8th in all of baseball in runs scored vs southpaws, and their .282 team average vs lefties is 3rd in MLB overall. The only AL teams to have more hits vs lefties than the White Sox are Cleveland and Houston, and we all know that both of those teams are well on their way to the postseason this year.

Secondly, the White Sox for all their youth, would love get a split in this crosstown series with the defending champs. They've got a somewhat favorable scenario tonight with the Cubs in a potential look-ahead spot with the Brewers on deck, and with the possibility of the Cubs getting on the path of running away with the NL Central again with a good weekend in Wisconsin, I'm not so sure we get an 100% focused Cubs team this evening.

Admittedly, there will be a few things that have to go right for the White Sox to come out on top this evening, and having Mike Pelfrey on the mound isn't exactly a huge confidence boost. Pelfrey has been hit hard for the bulk of this season, and with the way the Cubs are swinging the bats these days, lighting up Pelfrey and the White Sox for the third straight game isn't out of the question.

But that idea is also built into the price of this line and when the oddsmakers have put a big of a 'tax' on the Cubs this evening with a little inflation, knowing the Cubs will be getting the bulk of the support, I've got no problem taking a shot with the home dogs at this price.

Best Bet: Chicago White Sox +213