MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, July 6th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Marlins @ Cardinals
Koehler is 0-2, 11.84 in his last five starts; his last six starts went over. Miami is 2-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-5
Wacha is 2-0, 0.75 in his last two starts; over is 10-2 in his last 12 starts. St Louis is 5-5 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-6-2
Marlins won three of last four games; over is 4-1 in their last five games. St Louis lost three of last four games; over is 9-4 in their last 13 home games.
Reds @ Rockies
Romano allowed three runs in three IP (82 PT) in his only ’17 start, April 16. Reds’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 0-1
Chatwood is 0-2, 5.32 in his last four starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Colorado is 3-4 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-9-1
Reds are 3-16 in last 19 road games; over is 13-7 in their last 20 road games. Colorado lost 10 of last 13 games; under is 7-1-1 in their last nine games.
Pirates @ Phillies
Kuhl is 1-1, 3.77 in his last six starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. Pirates are 1-6 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-7-2
Hellickson is 0-0, 2.79 in his last three starts (under 9-5-3). Phillies are 5-3 in his home starts-their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-9-2
Pirates lost four of their last six games; under is 8-1 in their last nine games. Phillies lost seven of last nine home games; under is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games.
Braves @ Nationals
Foltynewicz is is 3-0, 2.97 in his last six starts; his last three starts stayed under. Braves are 3-5 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-5-3
Gonzalez is 3-2, 2.31 in his last six starts, four of which stayed under. Washington lost his last four home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 11-4-2
Braves are 4-5 in last nine games; under is 8-3 in their last 11 games. Braves are 9-2 in last 11 road series openers. Washington won four of last five home games; under is 7-3 in their last ten games. Nationals are 10-5 in home series openers.
Diamondbacks @ Dodgers
Ray is 1-1, 5.19 in his last three starts; over is 3-0-2 in his last five. Arizona is 6-1 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-4-5
Hill is 2-1, 1.89 in his last three starts (under 7-4). Dodgers are 3-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-6
Arizona won seven of last ten road games; under is 6-2-2 in their last ten games. Los Angeles is 14-1 in last 15 home games; under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games.
Brewers @ Cubs
Davies is 2-0, 2.77 in his last two starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Milwaukee is 6-2 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-6-3
Montgomery is 0-2, 4.97 in his last two starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Cubs’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-2-1
Milwaukee won six of last seven games; they’re 6-6 in road series openers. Under is 10-4 in their last 14 games. Chicago lost five of last eight games; under is 9-3 in their last 12 games. Cubs are 5-8 in home series openers.
American League
Astros @ Blue Jays
McCullers is 1-0, 2.60 in his last three starts; under is 7-3 in his last ten. Houston is 6-2 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-4-3
Liriano is 1-2, 6.48 in his last three starts; over is 6-2 in his last eight. Toronto is 5-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-6-3
Houston is 9-1 in its last ten road games; they’re 11-2 in road series openers. Over is 10-2 in their last 12 games. Toronto lost nine of last 13 games; under is 7-4-1 in their last 12 games. Jays are 4-10 in home series openers.
Red Sox @ Rays
Sale is 5-1, 2.32 in his last six starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Boston is 6-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 9-2-6
Faria is 3-0, 2.51 in six starts this year; under is 3-1-1 in his last five. Rays are 1-1 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-0-1
Boston won six of its last seven games; over is 6-2 in their last eight road games. Rays are 8-4 in last 12 home games, 5-8 in home series openers; over is 11-0 in their last 11 home games.
Orioles @ Twins
Bundy is 1-2, 8.22 in his last three starts; his last five starts all went over. Orioles are 4-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-7-2
Berrios is 0-1, 7.15 in his last two starts; under is 8-1-1 in his last ten. Minnesota is 3-1 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-3-1
Baltimore lost five of last six games; under is 8-1 in their last nine games. Orioles are 4-10 in road series openers. Minnesota won three of last five games; under is 8-3 in their last 11 home games. Twins are 7-7 in home series openers.
A’s @ Mariners
Blackburn allowed one run in six IP (96 PT) in his first ’17 start, vs Atlanta. A’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 0-0-1
Gaviglio is 0-2, 3.64 in his last three starts; under is 4-0-1 in his last five. Seattle is 4- 1in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-4-1
Oakland lost six of last eight games but won last two; they’re 4-9 in road series openers. Over is 8-3-1 in their last 12 road games. Seattle lost eight of its last ten games; over is 7-2-1 in their last ten home games.
Interleague
Giants @ Tigers
Cueto is 1-1, 2.84 in his last three starts; under is 6-4-1 in his last 11. Giants are 5-5 in his road starts their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-7-3
Sanchez is 0-0, 3.63 in three starts this year (over 2-1). Detroit’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-0-1
Giants won seven of their last eight games; six of their last seven games stayed under. Detroit is 5-12 in its last 17 games; under is 3-1 in their last four games.
Padres @ Indians
Lamet is 1-0, 2.84 in his last three starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. San Diego is 2-1 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-4
Tomlin is 1-3, 7.20 in his last six starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Indians are 3-6 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-10-2
Padres won their last three games; under is 11-4 in their last 15 games. Indians are 2-3 in last five games; under is 8-1 in their last nine home games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Mia-StL: Koehler 3-6; Wacha 7-8
Cin-Colo: Romano 0-1; Chatwood 7-10
Pitt-Phil: Kuhl 4-12; Hellickson 9-8 (1-7 last 8)
Atl-Wsh: Foltynewicz 8-7 (5-0 last 5); Gonzalez (9-8)
Az-LA: Ray 12-5; Hill 6-5
Mil-Chi: Davies 11-6; Montgomery 1-4
American League
Hst-Tor: McCullers 12-3; Liriano 8-5
Bos-TB: Sale 13-4; Faria 4-1
Balt-Min: Bundy 9-8; Berrios 7-3
A’s-Sea: Blackburn 0-1; Gaviglio 6-3
Interleague
SF-Det: Cueto 9-8; Sanchez 7-7-3
SD-Clev: Lamet 5-2; Tomlin 5-11
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
Mia-StL: Koehler 4-5; Wacha 7-8
Cin-Colo: Romano 0-1; Chatwood 7-9-1
Pitt-Phil: Kuhl 7-7-2; Hellickson 6-9-2
Atl-Wsh: Foltynewicz 7-5-3; Gonzalez 11-4-2
Az-LA: Ray 7-4-5; Hill 5-6
Mil-Chi: Davies 8-6-3; Montgomery 2-2-1
American League
Hst-Tor: McCullers 3-15; Liriano 4-6-3
Bos-TB: Sale 9-2-6; Faria 4-0-1
Balt-Min: Bundy 8-7-2; Berrios 6-3-1
A’s-Sea: Blackburn 0-0-1; Gaviglio 4-4-1
Interleague
SF-Det: Cueto 7-7-3; Sanchez 2-0-1
SD-Clev: Lamet 3-4; Tomlin 4-10-2
Interleague
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 42-31 AL, favorites -$1,193
AL @ NL– 44-43 NL, favorites -$552
Total: 86-74 AL, favorites -$1,745
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 42-34-2
AL @ NL: Over 47-35-2
Total: Over 89-69-4
Armadillosports.com
Thursday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Brewers (7-3 last 10) at Cubs
Independence Day has passed and Milwaukee still sits atop the NL Central, owning a three-game advantage over Chicago. The Brewers pulled off a three-game sweep of the slumping Orioles at Miller Park, while finishing off their homestand at 5-1. Milwaukee’s longest winning streak is this season is four game, in which it has accomplished three times, but looks to equal that number with a victory at Wrigley Field this afternoon.
The Brewers and Cubs hook up for a make-up contest before Milwaukee heads to the Bronx for its final series prior to the All-Star break. Zach Davies heads to the mound for the Crew today, as Milwaukee has won five of the right-hander’s last six starts. The Brewers have dropped five of eight meetings to the Cubs this season, including three of five matchups at Wrigley Field.
Coldest team: Mariners (2-8 last 10) vs. Athletics
Seattle can’t buy a victory at Safeco Field recently after dropping its seventh straight home contest on Wednesday. The Mariners overcame a 4-0 deficit to the Royals by scoring six unanswered runs, but eventually lost in extra innings, 9-6. In six of those losses, Seattle has been listed as a favorite, which is the role the M’s are in tonight to begin a four-game set with the Athletics.
Sam Gaviglio takes the hill for the Mariners in the series opener, as Seattle has cashed the UNDER in each of his past five starts. The M’s have won four of Gaviglio’s five home starts this season, while Seattle has captured three of the past four meetings with Oakland.
Hottest pitcher: Jacob Faria, Rays (3-0, 2.23 ERA)
Faria squares off against AL Cy Young front-runner Chris Sale as the Rays and Red Sox begin a four-game series at Tropicana Field. The Tampa Bay right-hander has put together five quality starts in his first five outings of his rookie campaign. The Rays have won four times when Faria has started, while pitching at least six innings in each outing. What’s even more impressive is the 7/1 strikeout to walk ratio for Faria by striking out 35 batters compared to issuing five walks. The Red Sox are making their first trip to Tampa Bay this season after winning four of the first seven meetings with the Rays.
Coldest pitcher: Josh Tomlin, Indians (4-9, 6.17 ERA)
Since the start of June, Tomlin has been the ultimate fade when he takes the mound. Cleveland owns a 1-5 record in this stretch with the only victory coming against the Dodgers, 12-5 as a short home underdog. Tomlin has been extremely consistent (in a bad way) during this stretch by allowing at least four runs in five straight starts, while yielding eight home runs in his past four outings. Tomlin and the Indians try to avoid the sweep against the Padres as Cleveland has compiled an 0-4 record when the right-hander starts as a favorite of -165 or higher this season.
Biggest OVER run: Astros (5-0 last five)
Houston’s explosive offense continues to rake after scoring 26 runs in a pair of blowouts over Atlanta the last two nights. The Astros have plated 41 runs during its four-game winning streak, while scoring at least five runs in 13 of their past 14 victories. Right-hander Lance McCullers, Jr. makes his ninth road start of the season for Houston as the Astros have finished UNDER the total in five of his past six outings away from Minute Maid Park.
Biggest UNDER run: Reds (6-0 last six)
When Cincinnati loses, normally it doesn’t score many runs. The Reds have posted three runs or fewer in each of their last six defeats, while coming off a 5-3 defeat to the Rockies on Wednesday. Cincinnati wraps up its series at Coors Field this afternoon, sending out right-hander Sal Romano, who is making his first start since a 4-2 loss to Milwaukee on April 16. Colorado’s Tyler Chatwood has been one of the top UNDER pitchers this season by going 7-1-3 to the UNDER in his last 11 starts.
Matchup to watch: Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers
Los Angeles is starting to open up the gap in the NL West between them and Arizona heading into the All-Star break. The Dodgers own a four-game edge over the Diamondbacks following Wednesday’s 1-0 shutout as L.A. seeks the home sweep tonight at Chavez Ravine.
After Clayton Kershaw and Alex Wood posted magnificent pitching performances in the first two victories, the Dodgers turn to another southpaw in the finale as Rich Hill takes the mound. Hill is coming off his best outing of the season after tossing seven scoreless innings and striking out 11 in an 8-0 rout of the Padres last Saturday. In his previous start against Arizona in April as a -190 favorite, Hill lasted only three innings before exiting due to injury in a 3-1 defeat.
Arizona looks to avoid its first road sweep of the season as fireballer Robbie Ray tries to shut the Dodgers. Ray lost for the first time in his previous eight starts in a 6-3 setback to the Rockies in his last outing, but Arizona owns a solid 6-1 record in his seven road assignments this season. Since last July, the D-backs have won four of Ray’s last five starts against the Dodgers, including a 2-0 mark in 2017.
Betcha didn’t know: The Blue Jays have slumped to a dreadful 1-9 record in their last 10 series openers. Toronto will have a tough time trying to turn around that cold skid as the Blue Jays host the Astros, who have put together a terrific 30-9 road record. To make matters worse, Toronto has dropped seven of its past nine games at Rogers Center, but won two of three home meetings with the Astros last season.
Biggest public favorite: Indians (-180) vs. Padres
Biggest public underdog: D-backs (+140) at Dodgers
Biggest line move: Pirates (-125 to -135) at Phillies
MLB Line Drive
Covers.com
Double-Play Picks
Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals (-145, 9.5)
The Marlins and Cardinals wrap up their four-game series Thursday in St. Louis with Miami looking to take three-of-four while the Cards will be looking to salvage a split.
The Fish will send struggling Tom Koehler to the mound. Koehler has been downright awful for most of the season with a team win/loss record of 3-6 and an ERA of 8.32. It's hard to imagine, but over his last three starts he's been even worse with a 17.10 ERA, 2.60 WHIP, and a .475 opponent's on base percentage. His last start, at Milwaukee, was especially unimpressive when he allowed seven earned runs over just 1.2 innings of work.
The Cardinals will counter with Michael Wacha who has been decent overall but has been very good pitching at Busch Stadium this season. In 10 starts at home Wacha is 5-1 with a 2.91 ERA and a WHIP of 1.20. He has also only allowed three home runs at home all season - the Marlins like to hit dingers so keeping the ball in the park will be at a premium today.
You gotta keep the self-proclaimed "best fans in baseball" happy, and the Red Birds should do that today and salvage the series split.
Pick: Cardinals -145
San Diego Padres at Cleveland Indians (-190, 9)
The Padres and Indians wrap up their three-game interleague series Thursday evening with San Diego looking to complete an improbable road sweep against the defending American League champions.
Rookie right-hander Dinelson Lamet will get the ball for the Padres. After a rough start to his major league career, Lamet has really settled down in his last two starts. The unfortunate thing for Padres backers is that those two starts were at home against below average opponents in the Braves and Tigers. His ERA on the road this season is 7.07 and against teams above .500 his ERA balloons to 10.93.
The Tribe will run Josh Tomlin out to the hill today in an attempt to salvage a game in this series. While Lamet has had a rough start to his career on the road against good teams, Tomlin has been around long enough for us to realize that he simply isn't a good starting pitcher - especially as a rotation guy for a contending team. His team win/loss is 5-11 on the season and his overall ERA is 6.17. Narrow the sample size to just home games and Tomlin's ERA bumps up even further to 6.55 in nine starts. Home runs are a huge problem as he's allowed 17 long balls already this season.
Oh yeah, "Cowboy" Joe West is behind the plate today. The Over is 15-5-1 in his last 21 interleague games calling balls and strikes and Over has cashed in nine of his last 10 games involving the Indians. West is a grizzled veteran and he loves to teach young pitchers a lesson about big league baseball, so don't expect Lamet to be getting many corner calls.
Look for some post-Fourth of July fireworks at Progressive Field today.
Pick: Over 9
Yesterday's Picks: 0-1 (rainout in D.C.)
Season To Date: 82-73-7
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox (11-3, 2.61 ERA, $580)
Every time Chris Sale takes the mound over the last month he rises to the top of the ‘Streaking Starter’ chart - and not only because the Red Sox win virtually all of his starts. Sale has won seven of his last eight and the game they did lose he tossed a complete game and allowed one run.
In his last three outings he has been dealing, 3-0, 1.66 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 30 strikeouts, and only four walks.
Sale and the Red Sox are -163 road chalk at Tropicana Field tonight as they visit Tampa Bay.
Slumping: Tyler Chatwood, Houston Astros (6-9, 4.41, $-351)
The Colorado Rockies have been the surprise team of the baseball season and their starting pitching has been a big reason why - with Tyler Chatwood being the exception. He has been decent for stretches in 2017, but the wheels have started to fall off recently.
On the season, Chatwood has a pedestrian team W/L record of 7-10 and he personally hasn’t won a start since June 8th. In his last three starts he has a 5.74 ERA, 1.91 WHIP, and has a horrifying .403 opponent's on base percentage.
Chatwood and the Rockies are -163 home favorites versus the Cincinnati Reds tonight. The total is currently sitting at 12.5.
Thursday's Top Trends
* Over is 15-3 in the Milwaukee Brewers' last 18 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Brewers/Cubs (Montgomery) Total: 9.
* The Cincinnati Reds are 6-23 in their last 29 road games. +150 today @ Rockies.
* The Washington Nationals are 24-4 in the last 28 meetings with the Atlanta Braves in Washington, D.C. -160 today vs. Braves.
* The Houston Astros are 10-1 in Lance McCullers Jr.'s last 11 starts vs. a team with a losing record. -170 today @ Blue Jays.
* Over is 11-0 in the Tampa Bay Rays' last 11 home games. Red Sox/Rays Total: 7.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
There is a chance of thunderstorms all day long in Philadelphia today where the Phillies are scheduled to wrap up their series with the Pittsburgh Pirates. The probability of precipitation will be up-and-down all day long, ranging from 40 percent all of the way up to 80 percent. They may have a tough time getting this one in, but thunderstorms are highly unpredictable so there may be a window of a couple of hours at some point this evening.
There is also a chance of thunderstorms in D.C. where the Nationals are scheduled to welcome the Atlanta Braves to town for the first of a four-game weekend series. The P.O.P. is fairly low in the evening at 15-30 percent, but the Nats did have a game rained out with a very similar forecast last night against the Mets.
There will be an 11 mile per hour wind blowing out to right field tonight in Minneapolis where the Twins will welcome the Baltimore Orioles. The total for that one is currently set at 9.5.
Ump Of The Day
Alfonso Marquez will be calling balls and strikes tonight at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia where the Pirates are in town. So far this season the Over is 10-4 (71.4 percent) in games with Marquez behind the dish. The total is currently sitting at 9 and Marquez is averaging 9.8 runs per game.
It’s also worth nothing that the Phillies are 1-8 in their last nine games with Marquez behind home plate. The Phillies are +117 home dogs with Jeremy Hellickson stepping on the rubber for Philadelphia.
MLB Picks of the Day
By Zabo Jones
Bangthebook.com
MLB Favorite of the day: Colorado Rockies -164
The Rockies and the Reds are going to be playing in Coors Field this afternoon. About two weeks ago I wrote that I thought it would be a good idea to start to fade the Rockies, and based on their last two weeks, I think I was more than right about their place in the market. But I also have seen a lot of people overreacting to a losing streak. While the Rockies have struggled building a team around their tough environment, they have generally had a good home field advantage, and that has continued this season.
The Rockies are going to be starting Tyler Chatwood. Chatwood has been an okay pitcher this season, but he has had one big problem of walking batters. He has a walk rate of 12.6%, which is good for 4.77 walks per nine innings. Although he has had walk problems in the past, this would be a career high walk rate for a season, including his minor league seasons. But his batted ball profile at home is great, he forces a high groundball rate, and has a below average line drive rate, and fly ball rate. He avoids letting the ball move through the atmosphere of Coors, which is especially helpful against the Reds who have done a great job of putting the ball in the air.
The Reds are trotting out another starting pitcher that nobody has ever heard of in Sal Romano. Romano has only pitched 3 innings in the MLB, and it was not a great start to his career. Ultimately though, we can only really judge him well from projections. ZiPS projections have him with a 5.35 ERA, and a pretty decent strikeout rate with about 7 strikeouts per nine innings. But making a second career start at Coors Field is not ideal. Things can spiral pretty quickly, so I like the Rockies quite a bit in this game.
MLB Underdog of the day: Philadelphia Phillies +126
The Phillies and the Pirates are going to be playing their interstate series in Philadelphia this evening. Jeremy Hellickson is going to be starting for Philadelphia against Chad Kuhl for the Pirates. Neither team is going to make the playoffs this season, and there is some strong reason to be concerned for both of their rebuilds.
Jeremy Hellickson is starting for the Phillies today. Hellickson has had a really disappointing season after it looked like he had rebounded last year. The biggest problem has been his inability to strike out batters at a high rate. Hellickson has never been some sort of a flamethrower who strikes out a batter per inning, but he has been able to strike batters out at a league average rate. He is now at the bottom of the leaderboard in strikeouts with only 4.58 strikeouts per nine innings right now. What makes this especially strange is that he has not seen any velocity drop, or movement change. Not only that, but his pitch usage has remained virtually the same from the last two seasons. I have a hard time believing that Hellickson has simply lost the ability to strike out batters, and I think it will begin to rebound.
Starting for Pittsburgh is going to be Chad Kuhl. This is only his second major league season, and so far he has not been as good as the Pirates had hoped he would be. His ERA is 5.26, with an xFIP of 4.81. Much like a lot of the rest of the starting rotation in Pittsburgh, Kuhl has the ability to throw hard, with an average fastball velocity of 95, but he still hasn’t struck out batters at the rate they probably hoped to. The Pirates are known to get movement in their pitchers fastballs, but that hasn’t been the case so far for Kuhl. Maybe eventually Kuhl will grow into a solid rotation piece for Pittsburgh, but it hasn’t happened yet.
MLB Over/Under of the day: Boston Red Sox/Tampa Bay Rays Under 7.5
The Red Sox and Rays are going to be playing in Tropicana Field tonight with Chris Sale and Jacob Faria starting for Boston and Tampa Bay respectively. The Red Sox look like they are going to pull away in the AL East, while I think the Rays are probably the favorites to win the second wild card spot.
Jacob Faria is the newest addition to the Rays starting rotation. He has made six major league starts so far in his career, he has managed to pitch incredibly well. He has an ERA of 2.23, along with an xFIP of 3.40. Throughout his entire minor league career, Faria has been a strikeout pitcher without great control, as his projections have him throwing 9.49 strikeouts per nine innings, along with a shade over 4 walks per nine innings. However, since being called up he has done a terrific job of avoiding walks, with less than 2 per nine innings. While I’m not entirely confident that he is suddenly going to become a great control pitcher, it would be silly to ignore the successes that he’s had so far. As far as Chris Sale goes, there’s not much to say, everyone is aware that he is probably the best pitcher in the American League, and has taken Boston from an average rotation to a very good one. I like the under in this game.