MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, June 15th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Nationals @ Mets
Gonzalez is 2-0, 3.04 in his last four starts (under 3-1). Washington is 4-2 in his road starts. 1st 5-inning record with him: 9-2-2
Gsellman is 3-0, 1.89 in his last three starts, all of which stayed under. Mets split his six home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-5 (6-1 last seven)
Washington lost five of its last six games; they’re 8-3 in road series openers. Their last three games went over. Mets won six of last eight games; they’re 6-1 in last seven home series openers. Under is 5-3 in their last eight games.
Brewers @ Cardinals
Davies is 2-0, 3.38 in his last three starts (over 9-4). Milwaukee is 4-2 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-5-2
Wacha is 1-2, 9.34 in his last four starts; over is 7-1 in his last eight. St Louis is 3-4 in his home starts; their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-5-1
Milwaukee is 5-3 in its last eight road games; over is 5-2 in their last seven games. St Louis won six of its last eight home games; three of its last four games went over.
Giants @ Rockies
Moore is 0-3, 5.87 in his last four starts; over is 6-0-1 in his road starts. Giants are 1-6 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-9-2
Hoffman is 4-0, 2.10 in his first four starts; three of those four were on road. Over is 3-1 in his starts. Colorado’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-0
Giants are 4-11 in their last 15 games, 6-5 in road series openers. Over is 6-3-1 in their last ten games. Colorado lost three of last four games; over is 3-1-1 in their last five home tilts. Rockies are 7-3 in home series openers.
American League
Mariners @ Twins
Miranda is 3-0, 2.52 in his last four starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. Seattle is 5-2 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-5
Berrios is 5-1, 2.89 in six starts this year (under 5-0-1). Twins’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-2
Seattle won eight of last 11 games; under is 5-3-2 in their last ten road games. Minnesota lost six of its last seven home games (over 5-0-2).
Orioles @ White Sox
Tillman is 0-4, 12.89 in his last four starts, last three of which went over. Orioles’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-5-1
Holmberg is 1-0, 4.26 in three starts this year (over 1-1-1). White Sox’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-1
Orioles lost 11 of their last 12 road games; over is 11-4 in their last 15 games. White Sox are 4-10 in last 14 games; over is 11-5-2 in their last 18 home games.
Rays @ Tigers
Cobb is 1-2, 5.79 in his last four starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Tampa Bay is 4-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-4-1
Verlander is 0-1, 5.49 in his last four starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Detroit is 4-1 in his home starts; their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-6-2
Rays won six of last eight games; they’re 7-4 in road series openers- over is 6-0-1 in their last even games. Detroit lost six of last eight games; they’re 6-4 in home series openers- over is 8-4 in their last 12 games.
New York @ A’s
Montgomery is 2-0, 1.38 in his last two starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. New York is 2-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-5-1
Gray is 0-1, 7.64 in his last three starts (over 7-1). Oakland is 3-1 in his home starts; their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-2
New York won six of its last eight games; they’re 6-3 in last nine road series openers- five of their last seven games went over. Oakland lost six of its last seven games; they’re 5-5 in home series openers- over is 8-1-2 in their last 11 games.
Royals @ Angels
Strahm is making his first MLB start; he is 1-3, 4.50 in 20 big league relief stints (22 IP). This is a bullpen game for KC if he is the starter.
Nolasco is 0-5, 5.93 in his last five starts; under is 8-2 in his last ten. Angels are 2-4 in his home starts; their 5-inning record with him: 4-6-3
Royals won six of last eight games; they’re 4-6 in road series openers- over is 8-1 in their last nine games. Angels are 5-2 in last seven games, 4-6 in home series openers. Under is 3-1 in their last four home games.
Interleague
Red Sox @ Phillies
Sale is 4-0, 5.61 in his last four starts; Boston scored 40 runs in those games (over 4-0). Red Sox are 4-2 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-2-5
Pivetta is 1-4, 5.52 in six starts this season (over 3-2-1). Phils’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-4-1
Phillies lost their last eight games; over is 4-1 in their last four home games. Boston won 10 of last 12 games; five of their last seven games went over.
Dodgers @ Indians
Hill is 2-0, 3.21 in his last three starts (under 5-2). Dodgers’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-4
Tomlin is 1-5, 5.05 in his last six starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Indians are 2-5 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-8-1
Dodgers won their last six games; their last five games went over. Cleveland lost three of their last four games; over is 10-6-1 in their last 17 home games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Wsh-NY: Gonzalez 7-6; Gsellman 6-4
Mil-StL: Davies 8-5; Wacha 4-7
SF-Col: Moore 3-10; Hoffman 4-0
American League
Sea-Minn: Miranda 8-5; Berrios 5-1
Balt-Chi: Tillman 2-5; Holmberg 2-1
TB-Det: Cobb 6-7; Verlander 6-7
NY-A’s: Montgomery 5-6; Gray 3-5
KC-LAA: Strahm 0-0; Nolasco 3-10
Interleague
Bos-Phil: Sale 10-3; Pivetta 1-5
LA-Clev: Hill 4-3; Tomlin 4-8
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
Wsh-NY: Gonzalez 5-13; Gsellman 5-11
Mil-StL: Davies 3-13; Wacha 1-11
SF-Col: Moore 4-13; Hoffman 0-4
American League
Sea-Minn: Miranda 4-13; Berrios 1-6
Balt-Chi: Tillman 4-7 (4 of last 4); Holmberg 1-3
TB-Det: Cobb 2-13; Verlander 5-13
NY-A’s: Montgomery 3-11; Gray 1-8
KC-LAA: Strahm 0-0; Nolasco 4-13
Interleague
Bos-Phil: Sale 1-13; Pivetta 2-6
LA-Clev: Hill 1-7; Tomlin 5-12
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 35-20 AL, favorites +$86
AL @ NL– 37-34 AL, favorites -$389
Total: 72-54 AL, favorites -$303
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 33-26-1
AL @ NL: Over 41-25-2
Total: Over 74-51-3
Armadillosports.com
Thursday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Dodgers (6-0 last six) vs. Indians
Los Angeles is heating up at the right time as the Dodgers look to pull off the sweep of the defending AL champion Indians this afternoon. The Dodgers broke a 2-2 tie with a late onslaught for the second straight night by plating four runs in the eighth inning of a 6-4 victory at Cleveland on Wednesday. Los Angeles pulled into a tie for first place of the NL West with Colorado, while scoring at least five runs for the fifth consecutive game.
It’s a getaway day in Cleveland as the Dodgers make the short trip to Cincinnati following today’s contest. Rich Hill is unbeaten in his last three starts for Los Angeles in spite of not pitching past the fifth inning in any of those outings. In fact, Hill hasn’t completed six innings since last season’s NLCS against the Cubs. The Dodgers are winless in their previous two road series finales after getting shut out by the Brewers and Cardinals.
Coldest team: Phillies (0-8 last eight) vs. Red Sox
Philadelphia dropped its seventh consecutive game against Boston dating back to 2015 in Wednesday’s 7-3 setback. The Phillies own the worst record in baseball at 21-43, while falling to 4-13 in the last 17 games. For the third time in four nights, the Phillies will be listed as a +200 underdog or higher as they oppose one of the top pitchers in baseball when they see Boston’s Chris Sale.
The only positive news for the Phillies is they racked Sale last September when he pitched for the White Sox by scoring six runs in four innings of an 8-3 victory.
Hottest pitcher: Jeff Hoffman, Rockies (4-0, 2.33 ERA)
Colorado has played 12 of its past 14 games away from Coors Field as the Rockies return home to host the struggling Giants. Hoffman has been a key piece of this restructured rotation that doesn’t have a starting pitcher older than 28. The former East Carolina standout is coming off three consecutive victories on the road, including an impressive 9-1 triumph over the Cubs as a +125 underdog. Hoffman won in his only home start of the season against the Dodgers in May, but the Rockies are 1-3 in his four career starts at Coors Field.
Coldest pitcher: Ricky Nolasco, Angels (2-7, 4.81 ERA)
Nolasco hasn’t won a start since late April, while Los Angeles owns a dreadful 0-8 record in his past eight trips to the mound. The right-hander actually put together a solid outing in his last appearance at Houston, scattering eight hits and allowing two earned runs in seven innings of a 3-1 defeat last Saturday. Nolasco faces the streaking Royals to begin a four-game series in Anaheim as he failed to beat Kansas City in two starts last season as a member of the Twins.
Biggest OVER run: Rays (7-0 last seven)
Tampa Bay’s offense has woken up of late by scoring five runs or more in six of the past seven games. The Rays cashed their seventh consecutive OVER in Wednesday’s 7-6 defeat at Toronto as Tampa Bay has given up at least seven runs in five of the previous seven road contests.
Tampa Bay travels to Detroit to face a Tigers’ squad they swept in mid-April, while allowing one run in two of those victories. Right-hander Alex Cobb has been a nearly automatic OVER pitcher on the road this season by eclipsing the OVER in seven of eight outings away from Tropicana Field.
Biggest UNDER run: Rockies (6-1-1 last eight)
Colorado hit the UNDER in five of seven games on its recent road trip at Chicago and Pittsburgh, while busting out for five runs on Wednesday after scoring only four runs in the first two losses to the Pirates. The Giants head to Coors Field tonight as four of the first seven meetings between these NL West rivals have gone UNDER the total. Left-hander Matt Moore looks to slow down this Colorado offense as the San Francisco hurler has amassed a 6-0-1 mark to the OVER in seven road starts this season.
Matchup to watch: Nationals vs. Mets
Washington travels to Citi Field after dropping two of three to Atlanta at home. The Nationals’ normally reliable pitching staff allowed 10 runs or more in all three games, capped off by Atlanta’s 13-2 blowout of Washington on Wednesday afternoon. Washington squares off with New York for the first time since dropping 23 runs on the Mets at Nationals Park on April 30 as third baseman Anthony Rendon drove in 10 runs for the Nats.
Gio Gonzalez heads to the mound for Washington in the series opener as the southpaw is unbeaten in his last two road starts by beating the Giants and Dodgers as a short ‘dog. However, Gonzalez dropped his previous outing against Texas in spite of allowing three hits and one earned run in six innings of work. Back in April, Gonzalez defeated the Mets at Citi Field by yielding two hits in six innings of a 3-1 triumph.
New York rallied to beat Chicago on Wednesday to capture two of three from the defending champion Cubs. Robert Gsellman starts in place of Steven Matz for the Mets as the right-hander is coming off three consecutive victories. Gsellman has allowed a total three earned runs in his last three starts, including home victories over the Pirates and Brewers. The Mets have dominated in home series openers of late by winning six of their last seven in this situation.
Betcha didn’t know: Zach Davies has turned into a reliable pitcher for the yes, first place Brewers. The right-hander owns a 7-3 record this season, while Milwaukee has won eight of his last 10 starts, including a 4-1 mark on the road. The Brewers and Cardinals close out their four-game set at Busch Stadium tonight as Milwaukee looks to claim its third straight win over the struggling Redbirds.
Biggest public favorite: Red Sox (-240) at Phillies
Biggest public underdog: Rays (+125) at Tigers
Biggest line move: Rockies (-140 to -155) vs. Giants
Red-hot Mets host Nationals
By: StatFox.com
The Mets will be going for their sixth win in seven games when they host the Nationals on Thursday.
The Nationals are really struggling right now, but they know that they need to turn things around. This series against the Mets is going to be a big one, as Washington can’t allow New York to claw its way back into the mix in the NL East. The starters in this Thursday night matchup are set to be LHP Gio Gonzalez (5-1, 2.91 ERA, 74 K) for the Nationals and RHP Robert Gsellman (5-3, 4.95 ERA, 48 K) for the Mets. Gonzalez just might be on his way to a career year for Washington, but Gsellman has been very disappointing for New York. Still, both of these guys are capable of pitching gems on Thursday. That means there is no truly clear advantage on the mound, which should make this one very exciting to watch. One trend that favors the Nationals in this game is the fact that they are 27-10 against the money line in night games this season. They’re also facing a Mets team that is 10-19 against the money line after two or more consecutive home games this season. New York is, however, facing a Washington team that is 1-10 against the money line when Gonzalez is pitching on the road with a total of 8.5 to 10 over the past two seasons.
The Nationals can use a victory on Thursday, and they’ll need a great performance from Gio Gonzalez in order to come away with it. The Mets exploded for nine runs on Wednesday, so Gonzalez will be going against a confident lineup here. The lefty should, however, be confident as well. Gonzalez has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 10 of his 13 starts this season. He also happens to have pitched 6.1 innings of one-run ball against the Mets on Apr. 22. That game was at Citi Field, so it’s not like the conditions are going to be much different in this one. Offensively, both 2B Daniel Murphy (.339 BA, 11 HR, 43 RBI) and 1B Ryan Zimmerman (.367 BA, 19 HR, 52 RBI) are players to keep an eye on in this one. Murphy loves to do damage against his former team, and Zimmerman has been good against Gsellman in his career. He is 3-for-5 against the righty, and he is obviously in the midst of one of the best seasons of his career. It wouldn’t be surprising if he went yard here.
If the Mets are going to beat the Nationals on Thursday then they will need Gsellman to be at his best against a potent Washington offense. The righty has been great in his past four starts, allowing three or fewer earned runs in each of those outings. If he can turn in a quality start against the Nationals then the Mets will have a chance in this one. Offensively, the Mets will be missing both 2B Neil Walker and OF Yoenis Cespedes in this one. That means that guys like OF Jay Bruce (.266 BA, 17 HR, 45 RBI) and OF Michael Conforto (.292 BA, 14 HR, 36 RBI) will need to step it up. Conforto has been dealing with a bad back himself, but he was available to pinch hit against the Cubs on Wednesday. That means he should be in the lineup for this one, and the Mets badly need him to produce.
MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com
Double-Play Picks
San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
In what is a bit of a role reversal this season, the first place Rockies welcome the last place Giants to Coors Field for a four-game weekend set that gets underway Thursday night.
The Rockies will send rookie right-hander Jeff Hoffman to the mound for the opener, while the Giants will counter with southpaw Matt Moore.
Hoffman has been dynamite since joining the Rockies rotation. In four starts he has gone 4-0 with a 2.10 ERA with a 0.74 WHIP, opponents are hitting just .174 against him, while striking out 32 and walking just three batters.
Hoffman goes up against a Giants offense that has not found its footing this season. San Francisco currently ranks dead last in the MLB in runs per game, OPS and home runs, while ranking 28th in average.
Moore on the other hand, has struggled away from AT&T Park. The veteran left-hander is 0-4 in seven road starts with a horrid 7.94 ERA and a 1.912 WHIP. He has also struck out 25 while walking 17. Moore takes on a Colorado lineup that ranks fourth in runs, sixth in average and seventh in OPS.
Colorado has also won five consecutive meetings against San Francisco so the value is too good to pass up.
Pick: Rockies -145
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals
National League Central rivals do battle when the first place Brewers and third place Cardinals conclude a four-game series Thursday in St. Louis.
St. Louis took the opener of the series 6-0 to pull within a game and a half of division leading Milwaukee, but the Brewers responded by taking the next two contests 8-5 and 7-6 to give themselves a bit more of a cushion in the Central.
The Cardinals send Michael Wacha to the bump for the finale to try and earn a spit with the Brewers, but Wacha has had an up and down season to say the least. The right-hander is 3-3 on the year with a 4.50 ERA and before a solid six inning performance at home against the Phillies in which he gave up two earned runs, he has given up 15 earned runs in his previous three outings.
Wacha has one start against Milwaukee this season, where he allowed four earned runs on seven hits in six innings back on May 1st. He gets to face a Brewers lineup that is still mashing rankings in the Top 8 in runs, OPS and homers.
The Brewers counter with Zach Davies. The 24-year-old right-hander has also had his struggles this season pitching to a 4.674 ERA and a 1.522 WHIP, but that has especially been the case against the Cardinals.
While he is 1-0 in two starts versus St. Louis he has a 5.23 ERA and a 1.839 WHIP in those games.
Additionally, here are some relevant totals trends to throw your way.
The Over is 4-1 in Wacha's last five, home starts, 5-0 in Wacha's last five home starts versus Brewers and 11-1-1 in Davies' last 13 starts versus NL Central opponents.
Pick: Over 9
Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season To Date: 61-53-7
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Jordan Montgomery, New York Yankees (4-4, 3.55 ERA, $-124)
Jordan Montgomery was a streaking pitcher the last time he was on the mound and nothing changed in that start.
Over his last four starts, the Yankees second best rookie has allowed four total runs in 24 innings (1.50 ERA.) and struck out 24 batters. Montgomery gets the ball tonight in Oakland against the A’s and the Yankees are +106 road dogs.
Slumping: Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles (1-4, 8.01 ERA $-308)
Chris Tillman has not been very good in 2017 and he has down right disgraceful in his last start.
His last was a special type of awful, Tillman gave up nine runs all earned served up three home runs and only managed to get four outs before being pulled in the second inning. Tillman gets the start today on the road in Chicago tonight against the White Sox and can be had as +108 dogs.
Thursday's Top Trends
* Indians are 0-8 in their last eight vs. NL West opponents. +108 vs. Dodgers.
* Phillies are 0-8 in their last eight interleague games. +220 vs. Reed Sox.
* Over 7-0 in Rays last seven games. Rays @ Tigers O/U: 9.5
* Under is 5-0 in Mets last five vs. NL East opponents. Mets vs. Nationals O/U: 8.5.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
Wet weather will have an impact on a couple of games today across Major League Baseball. There is a 50 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms in Cleveland where the Los Angeles Dodgers are scheduled to take on the Indians. And a possibility of thunderstorms are in the forecast in the area of Comerica Park where the Rays are in town to play the Tigers.
The forecast is calling for wind blowing out to center at Target Field this afternoon at 14-16 miles per hour with the Mariners in town. The total for the game between the Mariners and Twins is currently 9.5.
There will be hitters wind blowing out to right at the Oakland Coliseum this evening at 12-16 miles per hour. The total for this evening's game between the Yankees and Athletics has been set at 8.5.
Umpire Of The Day
Jim Wolf: Wolf will be behind the dish for today's interleague game in Philadelphia between the Red Sox and Phillies and that isn’t good news for the pitchers. In the 12 games so far this season he's been calling balls and strikes the OVER has cashed nine times. When the total is set at 8.5 or above, the OVER is 7-2 (77.8 percent) and in his last six games involving the Phillies the OVER is 6-0.
None of this is good news for today's starters Chris Sale and Nick Pivetta, the total for today is currently sitting at 8.5.