MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, June 22nd, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Cardinals @ Phillies
Martinez is 3-1, 1.84 in his last four starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. St Louis is 2-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-5-2
Nola is 1-5, 4.89 in his last six starts (over 4-4-1); Phillies are 1-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-3-3 (0-3-3 last six)
Cardinals lost five of last eight games; over is 7-0-1 in their last eight games. Philly lost 13 of last 14 games; under is 3-2-3 in their last eight games.
Cubs @ Marlins
Arrieta is 1-1, 4.29 in his last four starts; over is 9-4 in his last 13. Cubs lost his last six road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-6-2
Locke is 0-2, 5.03 in four starts this year (over 2-2). Miami’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-2
Cubs won four of last six games; they’re 4-7 in road series openers. Under is 5-0 in their last five games. Miami won seven of its last eight home games; they’re 5-7 in home series openers. Over is 6-3-1 in their last 10 home games.
Giants @ Braves
Cain is 0-5, 6.75 in his last six starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Giants are 2-5 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-9-1
Garcia is 0-2, 4.87 in his last three starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. Braves are 2-3 in his home starts; their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-6-3
Giants lost 10 of last 12 games; over is 6-3-1 in their last ten games. Atlanta won five of last seven games; under is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games.
Pirates @ Brewers
Nova is 2-0, 2.84 in his last three starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Pirates are 3-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 9-4-1
Anderson is 3-1, 1.04 in his last five starts; over is 7-3 in his last ten. Milwaukee is 3-4 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-4-2
Pirates are 7-4 in their last 11 games; under is 5-2-1 in their last eight games. Milwaukee lost three of its last five games; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine games.
Diamondbacks @ Rockies
Godley is 1-0, 2.22 in his last four starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Arizona won his last three road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-1-1
Senzatela is 3-1, 4.91 in his last five starts; over is 9-2 in his last 11. Colorado is 1st 5-inning record with him: 10-2-2
Arizona won eight of its last nine games; under is 11-6-2 in their last 19 road games. Colorado won six of its last seven games; over is 7-3-1 in last 11 games at Coors Field.
Mets @ Dodgers
Matz is 1-1, 3.21 in his last two starts (over 2-0). Mets’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-1
Ryu is 1-1, 5.63 in his last three starts; over is 5-1 in his last six. Dodgers are 3-2 in his home starts— their 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-8
Mets lost seven of their last nine games; eight of their last nine games went over. Dodgers won 12 of last 13 games; over is 11-1 in their last 12 games.
American League
Angels @ New York
Chavez is 1-1, 4.24 in his last four starts (under 3-1). Angels are 3-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-7-1
Severino is 3-0, 2.06 in his last six starts; over is 7-2 in his last nine. New York is 4-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-3-2
Angels lost four of last six games; over is 5-1 in their last six road games. New York lost seven of its last eight games; over is 7-2 in New York’s last nine home games.
Indians @ Orioles
Clevinger is 0-2, 5.95 in his last four starts (under 5-2). Cleveland’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-3-1
Miley is 1-1, 13.50 in his last three starts; his last four went over. Orioles are 4-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-6-1
Indians won seven of their last eight games; over is 3-2 in their last five games. Baltimore is 4-10 in its last 14 games; eight of last nine Oriole home games went over.
Blue Jays @ Rangers
Stroman is 4-1, 3.13 in his last six starts, last three of which stayed under. Toronto is 5-1 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-5-1
Perez is 1-1, 8.05 in his last four starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. Texas is 4-5 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-7-2
Toronto won four of its last five road games; five of their last seven games went over. Texas won eight of last 12 games; over is 13-2-1 in their last 16 home games.
White Sox @ Twins
Quintana is 1-1, 3.12 in his last three starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Chicago is 4-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him:
Turley is 0-1, 12.46 in two starts (over 1-1). Minnesota’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-1
White Sox lost seven of last ten road games; over is 9-6 in their last 15 road games. Minnesota is 4-10 in its last 14 home games; under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
Astros @ A’s
Paulino is 2-0, 4.58 in four starts this year (over 2-2). Houston’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-1
Hahn is 2-0, 3.38 in his last three starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. A’s are 4-1 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him:
Astros won four of last five games; they’re 14-1 in last 15 games against Oakland. Over is 8-4-1 in their last 13 road games. Oakland lost its last three games; over is 10-6-1 in their last 17 home games.
Tigers @ Mariners
Norris is 2-1, 4.76 in his last three starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Detroit is 5-2 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-5-2
Gallardo is 1-4, 9.30 in his last six starts; over is 7-1 in his last eight. Seattle is 2-5 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him:
Tigers lost nine of last 12 games; under is 3-2 in their last five games. Mariners are 8-3 in their last 11 home games; five of their last six home games stayed under.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
StL-Phil: Martinez 8-6; Nola 3-6
Pitt-Mil: Nova 8-6; Anderson 7-7
Az-Colo: Godley 6-2; Senzatela 10-4
Chi-Mia: Arrieta 7-7; Locke 0-4
SF-Atl: Cain 6-8; Garcia 6-7
NY-LA: Matz 1-1; Ryu 4-7
American League
Chi-Min: Quintana 6-8; Turley 0-2
Tor-Tex: Stroman 9-5; Perez 5-9
Hst-A’s: Paulino 3-1; Hahn 4-7
Clev-Balt: Clevinger 3-4; Miley 8-6
LAA-NYY: Chavez 7-7; Severino 7-6
Det-Sea: Norris 7-6; Gallardo 5-9
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning
National League
StL-Phil: Martinez 2-14; Nola 3-9
Pitt-Mil: Nova 3-14; Anderson 3-14
Az-Colo: Godley 0-8; Senzatela 6-14
Chi-Mia: Arrieta 5-14; Locke 2-4
SF-Atl: Cain 5-14; Garcia 3-13
NY-LA: Matz 0-2; Ryu 6-11
American League
Chi-Min: Quintana 3-14; Turley 1-2
Tor-Tex: Stroman 2-14; Perez 6-14
Hst-A’s: Paulino 1-4; Hahn 4-11
Clev-Balt: Clevinger 0-7; Miley 5-13
LAA-NYY: Chavez 1-14; Severino 2-13
Det-Sea: Norris 3-13; Gallardo 7-14
Umpires
National League
StL-Phil: Over is 5-2 in last seven Lentz games.
Pitt-Mil: Last five Bellino games stayed under.
Az-Colo: Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Porter games.
SF-Atl: Over is 8-3 in last 11 Wolcott games.
NY-LA: Six of last seven Hernandez games went over.
American League
Chi-Min: Last three Meals games stayed under.
Tor-Tex: This is just 2nd MLB game behind the plate for Livensparger
Hst-A’s: Over is 7-4 in last eleven Everitt games.
Clev-Balt: Favorites won 10 of last 11 Hamari games.
LAA-NYY: Six of last nine Rackley games went over.
Det-Sea: Over is 9-0-1 in last ten Gonzalez games.
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 40-22 AL, favorites +$18
AL @ NL– 37-35 AL, favorites -$629
Total: 77-57 AL, favorites -$611
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 40-26-1
AL @ NL: Over 41-26-2
Total: Over 81-52-3
Armadillosports.com
Thursday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Dodgers (12-1 last 13) vs. Mets
The talk of the NL West this season has been the emergence of the Rockies and Diamondbacks. However, the old hat Dodgers are right in the mix for the top spot of the division as they go for the four-game sweep of the Mets. Los Angeles’ offense exploded again on Wednesday for eight runs as the Dodgers have plated 30 runs in the first three victories of this series. The Dodgers have won four consecutive series since dropping two of three at home to the Nationals earlier this month.
Looking to finish off the sweep tonight is southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is coming off his third win of the season in his last start against the Reds in a 10-2 blowout. Ryu has been up and down when pitching at Chavez Ravine as the Dodgers own a 3-2 record in his five home starts, while allowing four earned runs in three separate outings.
Coldest team: Yankees (1-7 last eight) vs. Angels
New York did end its seven-game skid last night in an 8-4 triumph over Los Angeles, but the Yankees still aren’t out of the woods yet. The Bronx Bombers have given up at least four runs in seven straight contests, while their offense busted past the three-run mark for the first time since Friday’s 7-6 defeat at Oakland.
Luis Severino looks to give the Yankees the series victory this evening as New York has compiled a perfect 5-0 record this season when he takes the mound after the team lost in his previous start. Severino picked up a no-decision in Friday’s setback to the Athletics, but he returns home where he is unbeaten in his previous three starts.
Hottest pitcher: Zack Godley, Diamondbacks (2-1, 2.34 ERA)
Past Zack Greinke and Robbie Ray, Godley has been a terrific third wheel in this Arizona rotation. Godley is unbeaten in his last four trips to the hill since suffering a 5-1 defeat at San Diego on May 21, while allowing three runs or less in all eight of his starts this season. The D-backs’ right-hander struck out a season-high eight batters in last Saturday’s win over the Phillies, while cashing the UNDER in five of his past seven starts. Godley faces a Rockies’ squad this afternoon that is trying to avoid back-to-back home losses for the first time since late May.
Coldest pitcher: Matt Cain, Giants (3-6, 4.99 ERA)
The veteran right-hander had a solid start to the season as San Francisco won three of his first four starts. However, Cain is starting to wear down as the Giants have dropped five of his past six outings, including three straight away from AT&T Park. In this stretch, Cain has given up at least five earned runs three times, but one of his best starts came against the Braves, tonight’s opponent. On May 26, Cain lost a 2-0 decision to Atlanta in spite of allowing two runs (one earned) in seven innings of work.
Biggest OVER run: Angels (5-1-1 last seven)
Los Angeles has alternated wins and losses in each of its past five games, coming off last night’s 8-4 setback to the Yankees. When the Angels win, they score plenty of runs as the Halos have put up at least seven runs in six of the past seven victories. L.A. has cashed the OVER in four of five opportunities this season as an underdog of +160 or higher, as Jesse Chavez takes the mound, who has seen the OVER hit in three of his past four road starts.
Biggest UNDER run: Cubs (5-0 last five)
Chicago and Miami hook up for their second series this month after the Cubs captured two of three matchups at Wrigley Field in early June. The Cubs’ offense didn’t produce much in their three-game set against the Padres by scoring only nine runs, while getting held to two runs in Thursday’s loss. On the flip side, Chicago has pitched well during this UNDER streak by allowing only 10 runs as Jake Arrieta tries to get on track tonight. Arrieta has cashed the UNDER in four straight road starts, but the Cubs are winless in his previous six away outings.
Matchup to watch: Indians vs. Orioles
Two teams headed in different directions finish off their four-game series at Camden Yards. Cleveland cruised past Baltimore, 5-1 on Wednesday to pick up its seventh win in the last eight games, while the Orioles fell to 4-10 in the last 14 contests. However, Baltimore looks to improve on a 4-1 record in its last five home series finales as it is listed as a home underdog tonight.
Southpaw Wade Miley hasn’t won consecutive starts this season as the Orioles’ hurler cruised to a 15-7 victory in his last outing against the Cardinals. Miley allowed six runs in 5.2 innings, but Baltimore’s offense staked him an early 9-1 lead. The veteran has received plenty of run support of late as the Orioles have scored at least seven runs in his last four starts, resulting in four OVERS.
Mike Clevinger seeks his third victory of the season for Cleveland as the righty has not lasted past the fourth inning in each of his previous two starts. Clevinger has actually fared well away from Progressive Field this season as the Tribe is 3-1 in his four road starts, including wins in scoreless efforts against the Royals and Astros.
Betcha didn’t know: The Astros own the Athletics. Simple as that. Houston has won seven of eight matchups this season, including a perfect 5-0 mark at the Coliseum. Dating back to last season, the Astros have compiled an incredible 14-1 record against the A’s, while winning nine consecutive matchups in Oakland.
Biggest public favorite: Yankees (-225) vs. Angels
Biggest public underdog: Giants (+135) at Braves
Biggest line move: Diamondbacks (+120 to +100) at Rockies
MLB Picks of the Day
By Zabo Jones
Bangthebook.com
MLB Favorite of the day: Cleveland Indians -124
The Baltimore Orioles are starting to really hurt their playoff chances. The Orioles have an offense that can compete with the top of the AL east, but the rotation is one of the worst in baseball. A below average rotation can be overcome and lead to the playoffs, but a bottom five one is really hard to win with. Mike Clevinger is going to be starting for the Indians against Wade Miley for the Orioles.
I think it’s possible that the Indians have found a surprising piece of depth for their rotation. Mike Clevinger came to the Indians in a trade with the Angels where the Angels received relief pitcher Joe Smith. I’ve said before that it’s always funny to see how teams like the Indians rebuild, and they may have gotten a middle of the rotation starter for a pretty good reliever. Clevinger has an ERA of 3.89, and an xFIP of 4.07. This is in a limited amount of time, with only 37 innings so far this season, but it’s not hard to see why he may be successful. Clevinger is heavily dependent on deception, with a strange throwing motion. It gets hitters off their timing, and leads to a strikeout rate of over 1 batter per inning. If Clevinger can reduce his walk rate, he could end up being a great pitcher.
Wade Miley is an interesting pitcher in a lot of ways, and one of the least interesting players in other ways. Miley is an incredibly average pitcher in almost every metric, and this has helped him last a long time in the MLB. One of his greatest skills is his ability to eat innings for a team, and get relievers some days off. The problem with Miley is that his command has been getting worse throughout his career, with a walk rate of over 20%. The Indians have a fairly high walk rate, with Santana and Encarnacion being some of the most patient batters in the MLB. The Indians are a better team with at least equal starters, I like the Indians in this game.
MLB Underdog of the day: Arizona Diamondbacks +101
In recent days, I have been fading the Rockies to a degree. In the preseason, I was a member of the believers in the Rockies. I had noticed that their rotation was heavily reliant on 4-seam fastballs which makes a lot of sense in the altitude of Coors field. Zack Godley is going to be starting for the Diamondbacks against Antonio Senzatela for the Rockies.
Antonio Senzatela has been one of the most important players to the Rockies breakout this season. Senzatela is a rookie who was not viewed as much of an important prospect from the Rockies. There were many who thought that the Rockies should make an effort to acquire a back of the rotation starter to replace Senzatela on the team. All of his stats are pretty average, but in general, that’s what the Rockies needed. Like a lot of the Rockies team, he is heavily dependent on the 4-seamer, throwing it 77% of the time. There aren’t too many people who throw one pitch more than that. This game is at Coors, so I think that should help him.
Zack Godley has been one of the more underreported players in the MLB. I think it could largely be because of the east coast bias that exists in sports, I mean it seems to me that Arizona as a whole hasn’t been talked about enough given their impressive start. Godey has an ERA of 2.34, and an xFIP of 3.33. What could hurt Godley is how dependent he is on breaking pitches, Godley only throws his fastball 40% of the time. But I think it’s worth mentioning that Arizona is at elevation as well. It’s not as extreme as Colorado, but it’s probably the second most extreme environment in baseball. I think everything points to the Diamondbacks in this game, with the exception of the fastball. I like the Diamondbacks in this game.
MLB Over/Under of the day: Houston Astros/Oakland Athletics Under 9.5
This isn’t a game that I have much to say about in all honesty. The Athletics are going to be starting Jesse Hahn who has been surprising to me this season. Hahn has an ERA of 3.56, and an xFIP of 4.18, thanks in large part to a pretty high strikeout rate. The Astros are going to be starting rookie David Paulino. Honestly, I have very little knowledge of Paulino, outside of the fact that most scouting sites seem to place his future value between 45 and 50. This would indicate that he will be a slightly below average to average pitcher in the MLB. The most important part of this game is that it will be in Oakland. Oakland is one of the more extreme pitchers parks in baseball, and Oakland has a slightly below average offense. I know this seems like a half-hearted endorsement of this game, and I’ll be honest, it largely is. But it’s pretty rare to see such a high total in Oakland, so if the opportunity comes, I would jump on it.