MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
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Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox.
Toronto Blue Jays saving face with a 3-0 victory at Tampa Wednesday avoiding the dreaded sweep take the show to Bean-Town for a four-game series against Red Sox. Despite losing it's 19th consecutive series at the Trop the Blue Jays remain one of the hottest teams in the majors winning 12-of-14 and 15 of it's last 19 on the diamond stuffing +$1319 into betting accounts. Blue Jays count on Chien-Ming Wang (1-0, 2.18 ERA) in the opener. Wang making his fourth start in a Blue Jay uniform is off a 1 run, 6 1/3 inning performance tagged with a ND in Jays win giving Wang a perfect 3-0 team start record since joining the rotation. Opposite Wang will be Jon Lester (7-4, 4.57 ERA). The lefty not at his best lately has one win in seven trips to the mound with Red Sox 3-4 over the seven starts. Lester has allowed 9 yard ball, 56 hits, 34 runs over the drought and will bring a 7.8 Avg Runs Allow/9 rating, 10.6 Batter-Out-Ratio/9 to the mound. Well to note, League-wide home favorite with a pitcher that can't get guys out (BOR < 12) are just 75-155 this season outscored by 2.3 runs/game. Given that and Toronto solid bets at Fenway winning 2-of-3 this season, 8 of it's last 9 trips into Boston the Jays are the MLB PICK. Keep in mind, during this current stretch Jays are 3-0 off a shutout win, 5-1 vs a left-handed starter, 7-2 as a road dog, 4-2 opening a series.
Arizona - Washington Preview / Pick
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A superb pitching duel is on tap in the nation’s capital tonight as Patrick Corbin of the Arizona Diamondbacks will match pitches with the Washington Nationals’ Stephen Strasburg in a game that has the MLB handicapping world abuzz with excitement.
Despite the contrasting records of the two hurlers, the Nationals are -145 home favorites with a run total of just 6.5, according to the current betting odds at Bovada.
Strasburg has a 4-6 record with a 2.40 ERA, but can hardly be blamed for those numbers, since the team has only scored nine runs in his six defeats. Over the past year at home, the Nationals have won just 6 of 13 games that he has started.
In addition, when Strasburg has been a home favorite of between -140 and -160, Washington has won just five of nine, and has dropped three of his last five outings in that range.
Corbin’s perfect 9-0 record and 2.19 ERA have actually gotten somewhat stale, considering he has no-decisions in each of his last four starts, not having tasted victory since June 2. In those four no-decisions, Corbin has a 2.54 ERA, allowing a pair of runs or less in three of those contests.
Arizona is 3-0 when Corbin has started the final game of a series during the middle of a road trip, while the Diamondbacks as a team are 14-8 since the start of 2012 under those same conditions.
Over the last 12 occasions, the Nats are a mediocre 4-8 when facing a lefthander when the number is under 7, and have struggled of late against portsiders period, having been on the wrong end of the scoreboard in three of the last four games.
Countering that, Arizona has done well since the start of last year when they have a lefty starter as a road dog with the total under 7. Add to that the D-Backs having an outstanding 11-3 mark this year when a southpaw starts, primarily thanks to the combination of Corbin and teammate Wade Miley.
Finally, one final number of note shows that Kirk Gibson’s squad knows how to bounce back from a one-run defeat, like the one they suffered last night. The last 10 times the team has suffered a heartbreaker like that, it has come back to win the next game seven times, including a 3-1 record this year.
Going against Strasburg at home might be considered sacrilege by some in MLB handicapping, but getting an underdog price on a quality pitcher like Corbin, who is overdue for a win, is too good to pass up. Therefore, the MLB pick should be
Play Arizona +135