MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, May 11th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Dodgers @ Rockies
Ryu is 1-1, 1.59 in his last two starts (under 4-0-1).
Anderson is 1-3, 6.97 in his last six starts (over 5-2).
Dodgers won their last five games; they’re 1-4 in road series openers. Over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games. Colorado won six of its last eight games; they’re 8-3 in series openers, 4-2 at home. Under is 6-1 in their last seven games.
Pirates @ Diamondbacks
Cole is 1-2, 2.53 in his last five starts (under 6-1).
Greinke is 2-1, 2.33 in his last four starts (over 5-2).
Pirates lost their last four games, are 2-5 in road series openers. Under is 5-1-1 in their last seven games. Arizona lost three of last four games; they’re 7-4 in series openers, 4-2 at home. Under is 6-1 in their last seven games.
Reds @ Giants
Arroyo is 3-0, 5.31 in his last four starts (over 5-1). Reds scored 34 runs in those four games.
Blach allowed 10 runs in three IP in Cincinnati five days ago; he is 0-2, 7.20 in three starts (under 2-1).
Reds won six of its last seven games; they’re 5-6 in series openers, 2-2 on road. Cincy’s last six road games all went over. San Francisco lost five of last six games; they’re 3-1 in home series openers. Under is 10-2-2 in their home games.
American League
Houston @ New York
Keuchel is 5-0, 2.22 in his last seven starts (over 4-2 in his last six).
Pineda is 3-0, 2.91 in his last five starts (over 4-1 in his last five).
Astros won eight of last ten games, are 4-1 in road series openers. Over is 9-5 in their road games. New York won six of last seven games; they’re 4-1 in home series openers. New York’s last seven home games went over total.
Mariners @ Blue Jays
DeJong is 0-1, 8.31 in two starts this year (over 2-0).
Estrada is 1-1, 2.25 in his last five starts (under 4-3).
Mariners won its last four games, scoring 33 runs; they’re 2-4 in road series openers. Over is 7-2 in their last nine games. Toronto won four of last five home games (under 4-1); they’re 1-4 in home series openers.
Royals @ Rays
Vargas is 4-1, 1.43 in six starts this year (under 5-1).
Odorizzi is 2-0, 2.37 in his last four starts (under 4-1).
Royals are 2-9 in their last 11 road games; over is 5-1 in their last six road games. Tampa Bay is 4-7 in its last 11 home games. Over is 10-3 in Rays’ last 13 home games.
Twins @ White Sox
Hughes is 2-0, 3.44 in his last three starts (over 3-3).
Holland is 2-0, 2.37 in his last three starts (over 3-1 in last four).
Minnesota lost three of last five games; over is 9-1 in their last ten games. White Sox lost seven of last nine games; under is 5-3 in their last eight games.
Tigers @ Angels
Fulmer is 2-0, 3.00 in his last three starts, all of which went over.
Ramirez is 1-3, 4.55 in his last five starts (over 3-3).
Detroit lost four of last six games; they’re 4-2 in road series openers. Over is 12-3-1 in their road games. Angels lost six of last eight games; Trout didn’t play in the Oakland series. Halos are 3-2 in home series openers. Under is 4-1 in their last five games.
Interleague
Orioles @ Nationals
Bundy is 4-0, 1.95 in his last five starts (under 4-3).
Cole allowed one run in six IP (102 PT) in his only ’17 start, a 6-2 win in Philly.
Nationals lost three of their last four games, all of which went over total. Baltimore won six of its last seven games; over is 4-1 in their last five games.
Padres @ Rangers
Chacin is 2-1, 4.07 in his last four starts; his last three starts went over.
Perez is 0-4, 5.91 in his last four starts (under 5-2). -1
Rangers are 8-4 in last 12 home games; under is 10-2 in their last 13 home games. San Diego lost six of its last seven games; under is 4-1 in their last five road games.
Red Sox @ Brewers
Rodriguez is 1-0, 2.00 in his last three starts (under 5-0).
Nelson is 0-2, 7.71 in his last four starts (over 3-1 in his last four).
Red Sox are 6-9 on the road. Over is 5-1 in their last six games. Milwaukee won six of its last eight home games; over is 13-2 in last fifteen games at Miller Park.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
LA-Colo: Ryu 1-4; Anderson 4-3
Pitt-Az: Cole 3-4; Greinke 4-3
Cin-SF: Arroyo 4-2; Blach 0-3
American League
Hst-NY: Keuchel 6-1; Pineda 5-1
Sea-Tor: DeJong 1-1; Estrada 3-4
KC-TB: Vargas 4-2; Odorizzi 3-2
Min-CWS: Hughes 5-1; Holland 4-2
Det-LA: Fulmer 4-2; Ramirez 3-2
Interleague
Blt-Wsh: Bundy 6-1; Cole 1-0
Bos-Mil: Rodriguez Nelson 2-4
SD-Tex: Chacin 3-4; Perez 1-6
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
LA-Colo: Ryu 4-5; Anderson 1-7
Pitt-Az: Cole 1-7; Greinke 0-7
Cin-SF: Arroyo 2-6; Blach 1-3
American League
Hst-NY: Keuchel 1-7; Pineda 3-6
Sea-Tor: DeJong 1-2; Estrada 1-7
KC-TB: Vargas 0-6; Odorizzi 3-5
Min-CWS: Hughes 3-6; Holland 1-6
Det-LA: Fulmer 3-3; Ramirez 4-5
Interleague
Blt-Wsh: Bundy 0-7; Cole 0-1
Bos-Mil: Rodriguez Nelson 1-6
SD-Tex: Chacin 2-7; Perez 3-7
Armadillosports.com
MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Houston Astros at New York Yankees
The Asros and Yankees open a four game set in what has the markings of a pitchers duel. The duel in question is between Astros lefty Dallas Keuchel and Yankees righty Michael Pineda.
Keuchel the Pitcher of the Month for April carries a perfect 5-0 record, 1.88 ERA into the contest with his team 6-1 in the seven trips to the mound. Keuchel has had great success vs Yankees winning 4 of 6 career regular/postseason starts with a 1.41 ERA.
On the other mound, Pineda enters 3-1 with a 3.12 ERA but it is well to note Yankees have won each of his last five starts. Yankees have not been successful vs Houston with Pineda going 2-3 over five starts.
This being the opener of a road series should get the attention of sports handicappers keeping close tabs on the Astros and Keuchel. Houston is on a perfect 5-0 streak opening a road series with their lefty. Another positive for Houston backers, the Astros have shown a habit of winning vs the A.L. East posting a 7-2 record last nine including 5-1 in an opposing park.
Thursday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Mariners (4-0 past four games, 6-1 past seven overall)
The Mariners have broken out the whooping sticks at 'The Vault', posting 21 total runs in the their two games of their interleague series in Philadelphia. The Mariners are averaging 7.6 runs per game over the past seven outings, helping 'over' bettors at the window, too. The over is 7-2 across the past nine games for Seattle. The M's now move on to Toronto, looking to stay hot against right-handed pitching. They're 5-1 in their past six vs. RHP and 9-4 in their past 13 games on astroturf. They're also an impressive 9-4 in their past 13 road games against a team with a losing home mark.
Coldest team Pirates (0-4 past four, 3-8 past 11 overall)
The Pirates were broomed in Dodger Stadium to kick off their road trip, and now they set their sights on the Diamondbacks to try and turn things around. They have ace Gerrit Cole on the hill against Snakes' ace Zack Greinke in a game which should be very entertaining. However, the Bucs are 1-5 in Cole's past six road outings and 3-9 in his past 12 starts overall. For what it's worth, the Pirates are 8-1 in Cole's past nine appearances on Thursday and the Bucs are 49-20 in their past 69 against National League West foes.
Hottest pitcher: Dylan Bundy, Orioles (5-1, 2.17 ERA)
Bundy has been on fire lately, living up to years of hype. He has posted victories in four of his past five outings, last tasting defeat way back on April 11 in Boston. He exacted revenge on the Red Sox with a victory in his most recent road outing May 1, and he has a 2-1 record with a 2.33 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in three road outings. The O's have been hot, winning six of their past seven while claiming nine of their past 11 against National League East foes. They have also won five straight starts with Bundy on the hill and they're 5-1 in his past six assignments against teams with a winning overall mark.
Coldest pitcher: Clayton Richard, Padres (2-4, 4.87 ERA)
Richard has been tattooed over his past three ouitngs, posting an 0-2 mark with an 8.36 ERA. He has failed to last longer than 5 1/3 innings during the stretch, causing stress on his team's bullpen in the process. San Diego is in a tailspin, losing six of their past seven overall, and facing the hot bats of the Rangers with an ice-cold Richard on the hill isn't likely to be the elixir to cure their ills. While the Padres are 5-1 in Richard's past six interleague starts, they're just 5-23 in their past 28 interleague road games against a southpaw.
Biggest UNDER run: Rockies (6-1 past seven games)
The 'under' and Rockies aren't two things that usually go together, especially at Coors Field. However, the 'under' is 5-1 over the past six at home for Colorado, as they have been getting solid pitching lately. The 'under' is also 4-0 in their past four against divisional foes, 13-3 in their past 16 home games against a team with a losing home record and 4-1 in their past five at home against teams with a winning overall mark. The 'under' run will be put to the test with Brett Anderson on the bump against his former mates, however, as the 'over' has cashed in five of his past seven assignments.
Biggest OVER run: Twins (8-1-1 past 10 games)
Bettors have been a fan of the Twins at the betting window lately, particularly when it comes to betting 'overs'. Minnesota pitching allowed 31 totals runs in a three-game home set against Boston from May 5-7. They looked to right the ship, allowing just two runs in Tuesday's series opener at Chicago White Sox, but they busted out the lumber with seven runs to push the total. They have scored six or more runs in four straight road games and four of their past five away from home. They have also plated five or more runs in seven of the past nine overall.
Matchup to watch: Nationals vs. Orioles
The Orioles were sunk by a familiar face in Wednesday's interleague battle. Matt Wieters drove in the game-tying and game-winning runs in Wednesday's game against Baltimore. This is the fourth of four games, and two of the first three outings have resulted in one-run games. The Orioles are on a 4-0 'over' run, too, although the 'under' has hit in five of Bundy's past six outings against a team with a winning overall record while going 7-2-1 in his past 10 outings on grass. The Nationals have won four of their past five at home, although they're 2-8 in their past 10 against AL East teams and 0-4 in A.J. Cole's past four starts.
Betcha didn’t know: Tigers SP Michael Fulmer is 3-1 with a 2.77 ERA on the season, and he posted a season-high nine strikeouts over eight innings in a victory at Oakland last time out. He has allowed four or fewer outs in four of his six assignments so far this season while limiting the opposition to a .210 batting average. He might be tested more with Mike Trout (hamstring) expected to return to action. The Halos' All-Star carries a 17-game hitting streak into play, longest active run in the majors.
Biggest public favorite: Blue Jays (-140) vs. Mariners
Biggest public underdog: Reds (+130) at Giants
Biggest line move: Mariners (+160 to +140) at Blue Jays
Dodgers, Rockies battle
By: StatFox.com
The Dodgers will be going for their sixth straight win when they take on a Rockies team that has won six of eight heading into Thursday.
Thursday night’s matchup between the Dodgers and Rockies promises to be a good one, as both teams are scorching hot coming into this game. The Dodgers have won five straight heading into this game, and the Rockies have won each of their past four series. The starters in this contest are going to be LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (1-4, 4.05 ERA, 29 K ) for Los Angeles and LHP Tyler Anderson (2-3, 6.69 ERA, 34 K) for Colorado. With the way each of these teams have been rolling offensively, there could very well be a ton of runs scored in this game. The Rockies will be the more confident team when the teams take the field for this one, though. Colorado is 3-2 against Los Angeles this season, and that includes a 2-1 record when playing at Coors Field. The trends also work in the Rockies’ favor, as they are 16-8 against the money line versus division opponents this season. They’re also facing a Dodgers team that is a miserable 7-23 against the money line in road games after two or more consecutive home games over the past three seasons.
Ryu is coming off of the 10-day DL to make this start and will be hoping that the time off serves him well. The lefty had actually been pitching very well before going down, allowing only two earned runs in his previous two starts. He has, however, pitched six innings or fewer in all of his starts this season. It’s important that he starts working deeper into games, but that should not be expected with him coming off of the DL for this one. Offensively, SS Corey Seager (.285 BA, 5 HR, 17 RBI) and 3B Justin Turner (.365 BA, 1 HR, 15 RBI) are going to need to do some heavy lifting for the Dodgers in this game. They should be able to do just that, as Seager is 5-for-15 with a triple, a homer and four RBI against the lefty and Turner is 7-for-12 with two doubles, a homer, and four RBI against him. Both guys are having good seasons also, so the pieces are all in place for a big offensive explosion from Los Angeles.
The Rockies have gotten off to a great start this season and are hoping to keep it up with a series win over the Dodgers. Tyler Anderson is going to be the guy tasked with getting the set off to a good start, but he has been lousy this season. Anderson has allowed four or more earned runs in five of his seven starts this season. That number must decrease moving forward or it’s tough to imagine the Rockies continuing to throw him out there. Offensively, the Colorado lineup is going to need to step it up in order to help the lefty on Thursday. One guy that should be able to get it going is 3B Nolan Arenado (.295 BA, 8 HR, 22 RBI). Arenado has dominated Ryu in his career, going 6-for-12 with two doubles, two homers, and four RBI against the lefty. The Rockies also have plenty of other guys that are capable of going yard in this one.