National League
Phillies @ Braves
Velasquez is 2-0, 3.50 in his last three starts (under 3-2-1).
Blair is 0-2, 3.86 in three starts (under 2-1).
Phillies are 10-5 in last 15 games; under is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games. Atlanta lost five of its last six games; they're 2-16 at home; under is 5-2-1 in its last eight games.
Padres @ Brewers
Shields is 1-3, 3.24 in his last four starts; five of his seven starts stayed under.
Nelson is 1-1, 5.71 in his last three starts; four of his last five starts went over.
Milwaukee won three of last five games; over is 9-3-3 in their last 15 overall. Padres are 8-5 in last 13 games; they swept a DH at Wrigley yesterday. Under is 9-4 in their last 14 road games.
Giants @ Diamondbacks
Cueto is .2-1, 2.45 in his last five starts (under 3-3-1).
Greinke is 3-0, 3.74 in his last five starts; four of his last six starts stayed under.
Giants lost three of last four games; over is 9-2-1 in their last 12 road games. Arizona won five of its last six games; its last four home games stayed under.
Mets @ Dodgers
Colon is 2-0, 2.75 in his last three starts (over 3-0 in road starts). .
Kershaw is 2-1, 2.32 in his last four starts (over 4-3).
New York won 10 of last 14 road games; four of last six road games went under total. Dodgers lost eight of last ten at home; under is 11-4-1 in LA home games.
American League
Royals @ Bronx
Kennedy is 2-0, 0.75 in his last two starts (under 5-0-1).
Eovaldi is 2-0, 3.60 n his last three starts (over 3-3).
New York won six of last nine home games; four of its last five games went over the total. Royals lost 11 of their last 14 road games; seven of their last eight games went over the total.
Tigers @ Orioles
Pelfrey is 0-2, 8.02 in his last three starts (over 3-3)
Jimenez is 1-2, 4.94 in his last four starts; five of his six starts stayed under.
Detroit lost eight of last nine games; four of its last five games went over. Orioles won six of last eight games; under is 11-6-1 in their home games.
Astros @ Red Sox
Keuchel is 0-3, 6.94 in his last four starts (over 3-1 road starts).
Price is 2-1, 8.49 in his last four starts; six of his seven starts went over.
Astros won six of their last nine games; under is 3-0-2 in their last five games. Boston won 15 of its last 19 games; seven of its last ten home games went over.
Interleague
Cardinals @ Angels
Wainwright is 2-2, 6.21 in his last five starts; five of his last six went over.
Weaver is 2-0, 3.50 in three home starts (over 3-3).
St Louis is 6-3 in its last nine games; six of its last eight road games went over total. Angels lost nine of last 11 games; under is 10-3 in their last 13 home games.
Teams won-lost records when this pitcher starts:
Phil-Atl-- Velasquez 4-2; Blair 0-3
SD-Mil-- Shields 1-6; Nelson 5-2
SF-Az-- Cueto 6-1; Greinke 4-3
NY-LA-- Colon 4-2; Kershaw 6-1
KC-NY-- Kennedy 4-2; Eovaldi 3-3
Det-Balt-- Pelfrey 1-5; Jimenez 3-3
Hst-Bos-- Keuchel 2-5; Price 4-3
StL-LAA-- Wainwright 4-3; Weaver 3-3
Starting pitchers allowing 1+ runs in first inning:
Phil-Atl-- Velasquez 2-6; Blair 1-3
SD-Mil-- Shields 2-7; Nelson 3-7
SF-Az-- Cueto 2-7; Greinke 1-7
NY-LA-- Colon 1-6; Kershaw 1-7
KC-NY-- Kennedy 1-6; Eovaldi 1-6
Det-Balt-- Pelfrey 5-6; Jimenez 1-6
Hst-Bos-- Keuchel 2-7; Price 3-7
StL-LAA-- Wainwright 3-7; Weaver 2-6
Armadillosports.com
MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
New York at Los Angeles
The closing matchup of a four game series is today’s baseball betting focus as the Los Angeles Dodgers host the New York Mets this evening at Dodger Stadium. According to the current betting odds at Sports Interaction the Dodgers enter this contest a whopping -$2.40 home favorites, with a run total of 6.0.
Clayton Kershaw will get the start for Dodgers, bringing a season record of 4-1 with an ERA of 2.04. Kershaw bouncing back from a five-run outing against Miami on April 26 has won his last two allowing two runs while striking out 24 over sixteen inning of work. Dodgers have had great success vs Mets with Kershaw going 9-2 in his eleven career starts.
The Mets will counter with Bartolo Colon who also enters off back-2-back victories surrendering 3 runs with 12 K over 14 2/3 innings. Colon carries a 3-1 record, 2.82 ERA to the hill but is saddled with a 1-4 team start record vs Dodgers.
A pricey home favorite in baseball betting is almost always a reason to walk away from a game, so if your inclined on backing Dodgers consider a run line (-1.5) knowing in L.A.'s last ten wins handing the ball to Kershaw the Dodgers won seven of those contests by 2 or more runs.
Thursday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Red Sox (13-4 last 17)
Boston’s offense exploded against Oakland in a three-game sweep at Fenway Park, scoring 14, 13, and 13 runs. The Red Sox begin tonight’s action tied for first place in the AL East with the Orioles, as Boston has won seven of its past eight home contests. Boston grabbed two of three matchups with Houston at Minute Maid Park last month, while David Price toes the rubber in the series opener. Price has allowed at least five earned runs in four starts for Boston, while the Sox are 2-2 in his four home outings.
Coldest team: Angels (0-5 last five)
Things are not looking up for the Halos, who are trying to avoid a winless homestand. Los Angeles has been limited to two runs or less in all five losses to Tampa Bay and St. Louis, while the Angels have lost nine of their past 11 games overall. Jered Weaver looks to stop the bleeding for Los Angeles, as the Angels are 2-1 in his three home outings. The task for ending their skid won’t be easy, facing St. Louis ace Adam Wainwright in the finale, even though the right-hander has allowed at least three runs in all seven starts.
Hottest pitcher: Ian Kennedy, Royals (4-2, 2.13 ERA)
The veteran right-hander is making his fifth road start of the season, as Kennedy is coming off a pair of victories at Seattle and Cleveland. Kennedy tossed seven scoreless innings in a 7-0 victory over the Indians his last time out, while the former Yankee has allowed two earned runs or less in five of six starts. The Royals are on a nice ‘over’ run of late, cashing in seven of the last eight games, but Kansas City is 4-0-2 to the ‘under’ in Kennedy’s six outings.
Coldest pitcher: James Shields, Padres (1-5, 3.60 ERA)
Besides getting taken deep by Mets’ hurler Bartolo Colon in his last start, nothing much has gone right for Shields this season. The Padres’ right-hander has won just once in seven outings, while San Diego’s offense has scored no more than three runs in any of his starts this season. Dating back to last season, the Padres own a 1-7 record in Shields’ last eight starts as a road underdog as San Diego heads to Milwaukee.
Biggest UNDER run: Orioles (11-5 at home)
Baltimore is coming off consecutive ‘overs’ in a two-game road sweep of Minnesota, but the Orioles have been one of the top ‘under’ squads at home. The O’s are 4-2 to the ‘under’ in six home series openers, as Baltimore starts a four-game series with Detroit. The Tigers have scored four runs or less in seven of the past nine games, while Orioles’ starter Ubaldo Jimenez is 5-1 to the ‘under’ in six starts this season.
Biggest OVER run: Yankees (4-1 last five)
New York’s offense has woken up since a horrible April by scoring at least six runs in five of the last 10 contests. All three games against the Royals have finished ‘over’ the total, including Wednesday’s 7-3 victory by Kansas City as the Royals plated four runs in the first inning. Nathan Eovaldi takes the mound for New York in the series finale, as the Yankees have scored 15 runs in his past two starts, both games that sailed ‘over’ the total.
Matchup to watch: Giants vs. Diamondbacks
San Francisco salvaged the final game of its homestand by edging Toronto in extra innings on Wednesday. The Giants travel to the desert to begin a four-game set with the Diamondbacks, looking to avenge a four-game sweep by Arizona at AT&T Park last month. Arizona returns home following a 5-4 road trip, as two fantastic pitchers take the mound tonight. Zack Greinke has pitched better since a slow start as the D-backs are 4-1 in his past five outings, while Johnny Cueto searches for his fifth victory for San Francisco.
Betcha didn’t know: The Astros are 0-4 in Dallas Keuchel’s last four starts, as the reigning Cy Young award winner was listed as a favorite of -150 or higher in each of those defeats. Keuchel is listed as an underdog for the first time this season as Houston travels to Boston to open a four-game series with the Red Sox. The Astros are a +140 underdog against another former Cy Young winner, David Price, as Houston posted a 4-0 record last season when Keuchel was a road underdog.
Biggest public favorite: Dodgers (-215) vs. Mets
Biggest public underdog: Royals (+115) at Yankees
Biggest line move: Padres (+130 to +125) at Brewers
MLB Game of the Day: Astros at Red Sox
By Covers.com
Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox (A: +132, H: -143, Total: 8.)
The Boston Red Sox spent $217 million to make David Price the ace of the staff over the winter and so far are not seeing much of a return on their investment. Price will try to bounce back from another tough outing when the Red Sox host the Houston Astros in the opener of a four-game series on Thursday.
Price has gotten enough run support to come away with four wins, but his velocity has been down and he made some mechanical adjustments between starts that should help moving forward. "I'm mentally strong," Price told reporters. "I'm not going to harp on these seven starts or my last start. I'm going to go out there on Thursday and be ready to get after the Astros." Boston's offense certainly is capable of making up for a poor start as it pounded out 40 runs in a three-game sweep of Oakland that helped pull the Astros out of sole possession of last place in the American League West. Houston has won six of its last nine after a slow start and earned a series win over Cleveland when Marwin Gonzalez clubbed a two-run, walk-off homer in the 16th inning on Wednesday for a 5-3 victory.
INJURY REPORT:
Astros - C J. Castro (Out Thursday, paternity leave).
Red Sox - No significant injuries relevant to Thursday's game.
WEATHER REPORT: It's going to be a perfect night for baseball at Boston's historic Fenway Park. Clear skies, temperatures in the low 70's at game-time, and a slight breeze (3-4 mph) blowing out towards the Green Monster in left field.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Astros LH Dallas Keuchel (2-4, 4.70 ERA) vs. Red Sox LH David Price (4-1, 6.75)
Keuchel has been nearly as disappointing as Price while trying to follow up his 2015 Cy Young Award-winning campaign. The 28-year-old was reached for 16 runs and 26 hits over 16 1/3 innings in three straight losses before yielding two runs in seven frames against Seattle in a no-decision on Saturday. Keuchel mowed through the AL last season but did not face Boston, against which he has allowed seven runs and nine hits in 7 2/3 career innings.
Price has been rocked for six runs in each of his last two starts and has surrendered at least five earned runs in four of his seven turns. Three of those poor outings came at home, where the Vanderbilt product has posted an 8.34 ERA in front of his new fans. Price has pitched well against Houston over his career, posting a 3-2 record with a 2.89 ERA and 49 strikeouts in 43 2/3 innings.
TRENDS:
* Astros are 1-7 in their last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter.
* Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 5-1 in Astros last 6 vs. American League East.
* Under is 10-2 in Red Sox last 12 games vs. a left-handed starter.
* Astros are 3-11 in the last 14 meetings in Boston.
CONSENSUS: The public is all over the favored Red Sox with 70 percent of users picking the home team. The Over seems to be the order of the day when looking at Consensus data with 65 percent of the wagers expecting plenty of runs to be scored tonight. View full consensus data here.
MLB Betting Cheat Sheet
Covers.com
Not Phillin’ It
How are the Phillies 19-15 despite a -30 run differential that’s sixth worst in all of baseball (Thursday result pending)? Well, their 12-3 record in games decided by one run is your answer. That’s easily MLB’s best record in that situation and given how absurd it is at this point of the season (Mariners are #2 at 8-5), I would expect the losses to start piling up sooner rather than later. Especially seeing as their offense has scored the second fewest runs in all of baseball. Interestingly, they will be hosting the Reds this weekend, so the Phillies should be favored in most, if not all, games. There might just be a good underdog opportunity in there or at least go with Cincinnati on the run line if the juice isn’t too high.
A’s Pitching Gets an ‘F’
Over the last four games, Oakland pitching has surrendered a ghastly 51 runs. 40 of those were scored by the Red Sox, who became the first team since the ’99 Indians to score 13 or more runs in three consecutive games. The A’s pitching staff now owns an 8.58 ERA in May, which is obviously the driving force behind them losing 9 of the last 10 games.
But maybe there is hope on the horizon as this weekend sees the club traveling to Tampa Bay. In the last column, I warned you that it might be time to “sell high” on the Rays and sure enough they got swept in Seattle. Minnesota is the only A.L. team to have scored fewer runs this year than TB. So, in a battle of two teams that just got swept, expect the A’s pitching to do the only thing it can – and that’s improve.
Showalter Defying Expectations – Again
Besides Boston and Seattle, one other team swept its last series and that is Baltimore, the surprising leaders of the AL East. Of course, it helps that they played the Twins at home. Buck Showalter’s club gets to stay at Camden Yards this weekend, but it be a tougher test with Detroit coming to town. I say that knowing full well that the Tigers have dropped eight of nine and just struck out 20 times at the hands of Max Scherzer on Wednesday. But don’t be surprised if they claw their way to a series split here even though the O’s are a MLB-best 13-5 at home.
Hitting Notes
Boston’s lineup is on a ridiculous tear thanks to that series with Oakland and their lineup is now batting a collective .336 the last seven games. Leading the charge has been Jackie Bradley, Jr, who had six RBI’s hitting in the 9-spot in the batting order on Wednesday. Bradley Jr is currently working on a 17-game hitting streak and is 13 for his last 27 at the plate with five home runs. The red hot Red Sox have caught the Cubs for most runs scored in all of MLB entering Thursday.
There was a ton of debate Wednesday night on social media over a decision made by Cubs’ manager Joe Maddon to let the struggling Jorge Solar (now 2 for his last 15) with the game on the line. In the midst of a historic start for the team, Solar has been dreadful so far (.185/.276/.292) and is on the verge of working his way out of the everyday lineup. He struck out four times on Wednesday and his OPS is .536.
Pitching Notes
Losing David Price to AL East rival Boston meant someone needed to step up and fill a void at the front end of Toronto’s rotation. So far, that person has been J.A. Happ, who is now 5-0 after blanking the Giants for 8 2/3 innings on Tuesday. Happ’s current ERA (2.05) and WHIP (1.16) are significantly better than his career marks in those two categories, so I’m interested to see if this can continue. His next turn in the rotation doesn’t come until Monday, so that could be a break for Texas, who the Blue Jays visit this weekend.
Two pitchers I’ve previously written about in this column (for very different reasons) will square off Friday in the opener of a three-game set. Chicago’s Chris Sale has emerged as the early Cy Young favorite in the American League thanks to a 7-0 record with a 1.79 ERA and 0.775 WHIP. On the other side of the ledger, we have Luis Severino for the Yankees who is now 0-5 in his six starts (0-6 TSR) with a 6.12 ERA and 1.484 WHIP. This shapes up as the biggest pitching mismatch of the season, at least on paper.
Totals Trend
Wouldn’t you know that it is Toronto that occupies the mantle of MLB’s top Under team? Last year, they led the league in offense, but are down more than a full run per game in that department in 2016. Overall, the Under is 23-10-3 in their games this season including a 8-2-1 mark here in May.
Royals, Yankees square off
By Sportsbook.ag
KANSAS CITY ROYALS (16-17) at NEW YORK YANKEES (13-19)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Kansas City +125, New York -135, Total: 8.0
The Royals go for a split of the four-game set with the Yankees in the series finale at Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees (13-19) took the opener of this series, 6-3, on Monday night, and then gutted out a 10-7 victory over the World Series-champion Royals (16-17) on Tuesday.
Kansas City got back on track on Wednesday, however, with a 7-3 win. Prior to Wednesday night’s defeat, the last-place Yankees had won four of five. The Royals, in third place in the American League Central and six games behind the first-place White Sox, had dropped five of six prior to Wednesday’s win.
On the mound for Kansas City in the series finale will be RHP Ian Kennedy (4-2, 2.13 ERA, 35 SO, 13 BB, 3 HR in 38 IP), who has allowed more than two earned runs just once through his first six starts.
He’ll be opposed by RHP Nathan Eovaldi (2-2, 4.78 ERA, 37 SO, 8 BB, 6 HR in 37 2/3 IP), who is coming off a fine start against the Red Sox.
The Yankees have gone 9-9 at Yankee Stadium, while the Royals have really struggled away from Kauffman Stadium, posting a 7-12 road mark.
CF Lorenzo Cain (.274, 5 HR, 17 RBI, .338 OBP) broke out with a three-homer game on Tuesday and had two RBIs on Wednesday, which is a very positive sign for the offense-starved Royals (119 runs – 12th in AL).
Manager Ned Yost’s best player all year has been 1B Eric Hosmer (.328, 6 HR, 16 RBI, .378 OBP), who hits for both average and power.
With 3B Mike Moustakas (.258, 7 HR, 13 RBI, .314 OBP) on the 15-day disabled list, 3B Cheslor Cuthbert (.286, 1 HR, 3 RBI, .286 OBP) has taken over as the starter at third, and he’s produced over his first 21 at-bats.
LF Alex Gordon (.229, 3 HR, 8 RBI, .346 OBP), C Salvador Perez (.234, 5 HR, 18 RBI, .271 OBP), CF Jarrod Dyson (.226, 0 HR, 4 RBI, .284 OBP) and DH Kendrys Morales (.195, 4 HR, 13 RBI, .246 OBP) have underachieved greatly through the first 33 games.
No Royal has more than six career at-bats against Eovaldi. 2B Omar Infante (.247, 0 HR, 4 RBI, .282 OBP) is 3-for-6 against him and Dyson is 2-for-2 with an RBI. In his one career start against the Yankees, back in August of 2013, Kennedy allowed two runs in 5 2/3 innings and earned the win.
DH Carlos Beltran (.261, 7 HR, 15 RBI, .274 OBP) has had a terrific series, going 6-for-13 with three home runs, three RBIs, four runs scored and two doubles.
C Brian McCann (.274, 4 HR, 15 RBI, .361 OBP), who homered on Monday and had three hits on Tuesday, has also been heating up.
The most consistent hitter in Joe Girardi’s lineup, however, has been 2B Starlin Castro (.293, 3 HR, 12 RBI, .339 OBP). Despite hitting just .260 and .235, respectively, CF Jacoby Ellsbury (.260, 1 HR, 9 RBI, .321 OBP) and Brett Gardner (.235, 4 HR, 9 RBI, .371 OBP) remain tough outs.
The Yankees have only faced Kennedy once—he actually pitched for the Bombers from 2007-09—but some players who spent a significant amount of time in the National League have seen a lot of him. Beltran is 6-for-23 against Kennedy with two home runs, six RBIs, a double and a triple, and Castro is 7-for-26 with a pair of doubles and a triple.
McCann (5-for-16 with 2 HR, 1 2B and 3 RBI) has hit the veteran well, as has 3B Chase Headley (.178, 0 HR, 4 RBI, .265 OBP), who has gone 7-for-25 with a home run, a double and a triple. Eovaldi beat the Royals last May in his lone career start against them, allowing just one run in seven frames.
The Yankees have arguably the most dominant bullpen in baseball, with RHP Dellin Betances (2.57 ERA, 27 SO, 3 BB in 14 IP), LHP Andrew Miller (0.71 ERA, 23 SO, 1 BB, 6 SV, 1 BLSV in 12 2/3 IP) and LHP Aroldis Chapman (4.50 ERA, 3 SO, 1 BB, 1 SV, 0 BLSV in 2 IP) manning the seventh, eighth and ninth innings.