MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, May 25th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Rockies @ Phillies
Anderson is 2-1, 3.06 in his last three starts (over 6-3).
Velasquez is 0-2, 7.27 in his last three starts (over 7-1).
Rockies won eight of last ten games; over is 8-3-1 in their last 12 road games. Phillies lost nine of last ten games; over is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games.
Pirates @ Braves
Nova is 1-1, 4.15 in his last four starts; under is 3-1-1 in his road starts.
Colon is 1-2, 8.53 in his last four starts; over is 6-2 in his last eight.
Pirates lost six of last nine road games; over is 6-3-1 in their last ten games. Atlanta is 9-4 in its last 13 games; over is 9-3-1 in their last 13 home games.
Giants @ Cubs
Samardzija is 1-0, 1.84 in his last two starts (under 7-2).
Butler is 1-0, 2.00 in to starts this year (over 1-1).
Giants lost three of last four games; five of their last seven games went over. Cubs won six of last eight games; over is 16-2 in last 18 games at Wrigley Field.
Padres @ Mets
Lamet is making his MLB debut here; he is 3-2, 3.23 in eight AAA starts this season.
deGrom is 3-0, 4.35 in his last five starts; under is 4-0 in his home starts.
San Diego lost six of its last eight games; over is 10-5-1 in their last 16 road games. Mets lost nine of last 12 games; over is 9-2-1 in their last 12 games.
Diamondbacks @ Brewers
Ray is 2-0, 5.50 in his last three starts; under is 4-1 in his last five starts.
Davies is 5-0, 3.94 in his last six starts (over 7-2)- Milwaukee scored 44 runs in those six games.
Arizona won eight of last nine games; they’re 4-2 in road series openers. Under is 6-2 in their last eight road games. Milwaukee lost its last three games; they’re 5-3 in home series openers. Over is 16-4 in their last 20 games at Miller Park.
Cardinals @ Dodgers
Wacha is 1-0, 2.64 in his last five starts; his last four starts went over.
Maeda comes off DL here; he is 2-0, 2.66 in his last three starts (over 4-2-1).
St Louis lost four of last six games; over is 9-2-1 in their last 12 road games. Los Angeles won six of last eight home games; five of last six Dodger games went over the total.
American League
Kansas City @ New York
Almonte is making his first MLB start; he’s allowed six runs in 8.2 IP in nine MLB relief stints. He is 1-0, 1.86 in six AA starts this season.
Tanaka is 1-2, 13.89 in his last three starts (over 7-2).
Royals lost six of last nine games; under is 9-4 in their last 13 games. New York won three of last four games; under is 5-2 in their last seven home games.
Angels @ Rays
Wright blanked Toronto for five innings (80 PT) in his first ’17 start on April 23.
Andriese is 3-0, 4.03 in his last four starts- his last three outings went over.
Angels won seven of last ten games; under is 8-4 in their last 12 games. Tampa Bay lost three of last three games; over is 10-5-1 in their last 16 games.
Rangers @ Red Sox
Martinez is 1-1, 4.24 in his last three starts (under 4-2).
Pomeranz is 0-2, 8.18 in his last three starts; over is 4-1 in his last five.
Texas lost three of last four games after a 10-game win streak; over is 7-3 in their last ten games. Boston won its last three games; over is 9-1 in last ten Red Sox games.
Tigers @ Astros
Verlander is 3-1, 3.55 in his last five starts; over is 4-1 in his road starts.
Fiers is 1-1, 5.96 in his last four starts (over 4-4).
Tigers lost four of last six games; under is 6-1-1 in their last eight road games. Houston lost four of their last six games; under is 5-1-1 in their last seven games.
Interleague
Mariners @ Nationals
Miranda is 2-0, 4.23 in his last five starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven.
Gonzalez is 0-1, 5.40 in his last three starts (over 5-4).
Mariners lost 10 of last 13 games; over is 6-3 in their last nine games. Washington won its last three games; over is 9-4 in Nationals’ last 13 home games.
Reds @ Indians
Adleman is 1-1, 10.97 in his last three starts (over 4-2).
Clevinger is 2-1, 1.59 in three starts this year (under 3-0).
Indians lost five of last seven home games; over is 4-1 in their last five home games. Reds lost nine of last 12 games; eight of last ten Cincy games went over the total.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
SF-Chi: Samardzija 4-5; Butler 1-1
Col-Phil: Anderson 5-4; Velasquez 2-6
Pitt-Atl: Nova 5-4; Colon 5-4
SD-NY: Lamet 0-0; deGrom 5-4
Az-Mil: Ray 5-4; Davies 6-3
StL-LA: Wacha 3-4; Maeda 5-2
American League
KC-NY: Almonte 0-0; Tanaka 5-4
LA-TB: Wright 0-1; Andriese 5-4
Tex-Bos: Martinez 3-3; Pomeranz 4-4
Det-Hst: Verlander 5-4; Fiers 4-4
Interleague
Sea-Wsh: Miranda 5-4; Gonzalez 5-4
Cin-Clev: Adleman 3-3; Clevinger 2-1
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
SF-Chi: Samardzija 3-9; Butler 1-2
Col-Phil: Anderson 1-9; Velasquez 3-8
Pitt-Atl: Nova 2-9; Colon 3-9
SD-NY: Lamet 0-0; deGrom 3-6
Az-Mil: Ray 4-9; Davies 1-9
StL-LA: Wacha 1-7; Maeda 2-7
American League
KC-NY: Almonte 0-0; Tanaka 5-9
LA-TB: Wright 0-1; Andriese 5-9
Tex-Bos: Martinez 1-6; Pomeranz 4-8
Det-Hst: Verlander 4-9; Fiers 5-8
Interleague
Sea-Wsh: Miranda 4-9; Gonzalez 6-9
Cin-Clev: Adleman 3-6; Clevinger 0-3
Umpires
National League
SF-Chi: Last five Diaz games went over total.
Col-Phil: Under is 5-2 in last seven Kulpa games.
Pitt-Atl: Last eight Hallion games went over total.
SD-NY: Under is 6-1-1 in Baker games this season.
StL-LA: Road team won six of last eight Segal games.
American League
KC-NY: Both Ortiz games last year stayed under the total.
LA-TB: Under is 5-2-1 in Fletcher games this season.
Tex-Bos: Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Fairchild games.
Det-Hst: Over is 4-1-1 in last six Demuth games.
Interleague
Sea-Wsh: Favorites won last seven Hamari games.
Clev-Cin: Over is 5-2 in last seven Timmons games.
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 24-11 AL, favorites -$57
AL @ NL– 24-23 AL, favorites +$547
Total: 48-34 AL, favorites +$490
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 18-20-1
AL @ NL: Over 28-17
Total: Over 46-37-1
Armadillosports.com
Thursday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Dodgers (5-2 past seven games, 12-4 past 16 at home)
The Dodgers ran into a buzzsaw on Wednesday night, falling to a red-hot Mike Leake and the Cardinals by a 6-1 margin. It was a rare home loss for L.A., as Dodger Blue had been successful in 12 of their past 15 at Chavez Ravine entering play. You can also blame left-hander Rich Hill, too, as the Dodgers have lost each of his past three starts. It might be a difficult story with Kenta Maeda on the hill, as the Dodgers are 5-1 over his past six outing and 9-3 in his past 12 at home. In addition, the Dodgers have won 46 of their past 61 home games vs. RHP while going 4-0 in their past four at Dodger Stadium against teams with a winning overall mark.
Coldest team Padres (2-6 past eight games, 5-15 past 20 overall)
The Padres came up with a rare road victory, topping the Mets 6-5 on Wednesday behind Jarred Cosart. The wins have been few and far between for San Diego starting pitchers, and the team has won more than once only with Trevor Cahill on the mound so far in May. The team has just one or fewer victories for all other starters in the month. The team turns to minor-league call-up Dinelson Lamet to try and turn the team's fortunes around. Lamet, signed as a international free agent in 2014, posted a 3-2 record with a 3.23 ERA across 39 innings over eight starts with Triple-A El Paso.
Hottest pitcher: Ivan Nova, Pirates (4-3, 2.63 ERA)
Nova takes the mound on Thursday afternoon against the Braves at SunTrust Park. He has shined when the sun is out, posting a 3-1 record with a 3.06 ERA in five appearances during the day, recording 23 strikeouts with just two walks over 32 1/3 innings. His overall success can be attributed to the fact he has a 1.05 WHIP thanks to just four walks and five homers allowed in 61 2/3 innings over nine starts. His only appearance of the season against the Braves occurred earlier this season in the Steel City and he allowed just one unearned run, six hits and no walks with four strikeouts over six innings in a win back on April 7.
Coldest pitcher: Masahiro Tanaka, Yankees (5-3, 6.56 ERA)
Tanaka has racked up a respectable 5-3 win-loss record so far, but he has a terrible 6.56 ERA with a .310 opponent batting average and 1.60 WHIP through nine starts. He ranks fourth in the majors with a run support mark of 6.22, one of three Yankees starters ranking in the Top 10 in the majors in run support. The Yankees are 7-0 in Tanaka's past seven starts against American League Central Division foes and 22-8 in his past 30 starts at home. He could break out of his funk against a struggling Royals team, especially one which is 36-76 in their past 112 tries against the Yankees and 16-41 in their past 57 trips to the Bronx.
Biggest UNDER run: Royals (5-2 past seven games, 15-8 past 23 overall)
The Royals have had difficulty scoring all season, as they rank dead last in the majors with just 153 runs through 45 games (3.4 runs per game). That's 50 runs below the American League average, and 53 under the average for the majors. It's also a stark contrast to their opponent, as the Yankees rank third in the majors with 238 runs while checking in second in the league, and first in the AL, with an .801 team OPS. The 'under' is 19-7-2 in Kansas City's past 28 against teams with a winning overall record, 25-12 in their past 37 overall and 9-2-1 in their past 12 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600.
Biggest OVER run: Brewers (5-0 past five games, 5-0 past five road games)
The 'over' trends are overwhelmingly pointed in Milwaukee's direction. The over has cashed in 16 of the past 21 for Milwaukee at Miller Park while going 23-9-1 in their past 33 games overall. In addition, the over is 6-1 in their past seven against left-handed starting pitching and 13-3 in Zach Davies' past 16 starts at home. The over is also 4-0 in the past four home starts for Davies against a team wit ha winning record. Milwaukee ranks fourth in the majors with 236 runs per game (5.24 runs per game) while also posting a dismal 4.24 ERA, 17th in the majors.
Matchup to watch: Astros vs. Tigers
The Tigers turn to their ace Justin Verlander to slap the brakes on their current slide. The Tigers have won just once over the past five road games while going 1-4 in their past five overall and 1-4 in their past five against a right-handed starter. However, J.V. has been the team's stopper, going 20-8 over the past 28 against teams with a winning overall record and 7-3 in his past 10 starts with four days of rest. The Astros have been on fire, winning 27 of their past 38 overall, including an 11-5 mark in the past 16 at home. However, they're just 1-4 in their past five times facing Verlander. In addition, Mike Fiers has a dismal 5.14 ERA with a .326 opponent OBP through 42 innings.
Betcha didn’t know: Arizona finds themselves with a 29-19 record, sitting 10 games over .500 for the first time since the 2011 season when they rolled to 94 victories. If the playoffs started today, both the Brewers and Diamondbacks would qualify for the postseason. How many people had that in their predictions when the season began? The Snakes have rattled off seven wins over their past eight outings, although they're just 1-4 over Robbie Ray's past five outings. They're also 2-9 over his past 11 road outings against teams with a winning overall mark. Meanwhile, the Brewers have won each of Davies' past six starts, but they're just 2-6 in his past eight against teams with a winning overall record.
Biggest public favorite: Mets (-210) vs. Padres
Biggest public underdog: Tigers (+120) at Astros
Biggest line move: Padres (+235 to +210) at Mets
Tigers, Astros meet in Houston
By: StatFox.com
The Astros will be looking to secure a series win when they host the Tigers on Thursday.
Houston won the first two games in this series, but Detroit responded with a 6-3 victory on Wednesday night. That was a big win for the Tigers, who had lost three straight and badly needed to get back into the win column. Detroit will now look to split this four-game set by winning on Thursday, and the team will definitely be feeling like it has the edge on the mound. RHP Justin Verlander (4-3, 4.39 ERA, 54 K) is starting for the Tigers, and that is good news for them. It is, however, bad news for Detroit that RHP Mike Fiers (1-2, 5.14 ERA, 36 K) is on the mound for Houston. Fiers is not nearly as good as Verlander, but he is coming off of his best start of the season and will be confident on Thursday. One trend that favors the Tigers in this game is the fact that the team is 10-2 against the money line after having lost four or five of its past six games this season. The Astros, meanwhile, are a ridiculous 25-10 against the money line against right-handed starters this season. Houston is also 29-11 against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season.
Justin Verlander is not off to the start he was hoping for this season, but he should get himself going rather shortly. He was solid in his most recent outing, allowing just three earned runs in seven innings against the Rangers on May 20. Verlander struck out five batters in that game, and he’ll be hoping to miss a bunch of bats here as well. One thing he’ll need to do is avoid the long-ball, which is not going to be easy against Houston. Offensively, the Tigers are going to need to find a way to provide a bunch of runs for Verlander. This could be a high-scoring game, so guys like 3B Miguel Cabrera (.264 BA, 5 HR, 18 RBI) and 2B Ian Kinsler (.240 BA, 4 HR, 11 RBI) must show up. Both have been very disappointing this season, but they are both too good of hitters to let this linger on longer. One guy that hasn’t been struggling is OF J.D. Martinez (.364 BA, 6 HR, 12 RBI). Since returning from injury, Martinez has looked like one of the best hitters in baseball. It’d be big if he can have a big game in this one as well.
The Astros might be coming off of a loss, but this team is still playing very well coming into this one. They’ll look to win this four-game set on Thursday, and that means that Mike Fiers will need to come up big once again here. Fiers is very inconsistent, but he was great in his last trip to the mound. That was against the Indians on May 20, and Fiers gave up just one earned run in six innings of work. He’ll need to do something like that again in order to try to outduel Verlander. Offensively, the Astros will need something from guys like 2B Jose Altuve (.297 BA, 7 HR, 22 RBI) and OF George Springer (.236 BA, 9 HR, 24 RBI). Both guys have a good chance of getting to Verlander in this one, and so do all of the other dangerous Astros hitters.