MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, May 4th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Mets @ Braves
Wheeler is 1-2, 5.13 in five starts this year (over 4-0-1).
Garcia is 1-0, 2.95 in his last three starts (over 3-1-1).
Mets won four of last six games; over is 11-1-1 in their last 13 games. Atlanta lost three of its last four games (over 7-1 in last eight).
Diamondbacks @ Nationals
Shipley is making his first ’17 start; he is 3-1, 4.18 in five AAA starts this year. He is 4-5, 5.27 in 11 major league starts.
Scherzer is 0-2, 6.00 in two home starts this year (3-0, 2.08 on road). Over is 3-2 in his starts.
Arizona lost three of last four road games; under is 5-2 in their last seven road games. Washington is 12-4 in its last 16 games; they’re 8-6 at home. Nine of Nationals’ last ten games went over total.
Pirates @ Reds
Nova is 2-0, 0.56 in his last two starts (his last three starts stayed under).
Adleman is 0-1, 6.35 in two starts this year (over 2-0).
Pirates lost six of last nine road games; over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Cincinnati lost nine of its last 13 games- ten of their last 11 games went over.
Phillies @ Cubs
Eflin is 0-0, 2.37 in three starts this month (over 1-1-1).
Lackey is 1-3, 6.00 in his last four starts (over 4-1).
Cubs lost four of last seven games; over is 13-1 in their last 14 games. Phillies lost five of last six games; over is 7-0-3 in their last ten road games.
Brewers @ St Louis
Anderson is 2-0, 2.70 in five starts this year (under 3-2).
Wainwright is 2-3, 6.48 in five starts this year (last three went over).
Brewers won five of last eight games; they’re 7-4 on road- over is 14-4 in their last 18 games. St Louis is 10-4 in its last 14 games, 7-3 in last ten at home. Over is 9-2 in their last 11 games.
Rockies @ Padres
Freeland is 2-0, 1.06 in his last three starts (under 5-0).
Perdomo is 0-1, 6.19 in three starts (over 2-1) this year.
Colorado lost five of last eight games; they’re 10-5 on road. Over is 9-3 in their last twelve games. San Diego won three of its last four games; Padres are 7-5 at home. Over is 9-2 in their last 11 games.
American League
Orioles @ Red Sox
Jimenez is 1-1, 7.83 in his five starts this year (over 4-1).
Kendrick is making his first ’17 start; he is 1-3, 6.00 in four AAA starts this year. He is 81-81, 4.63 in 212 career major league starts.
Orioles are 8-7 on road; their last three games stayed under. Boston won three of its last four games; 11 of their last 13 games stayed under.
Indians @ Tigers
Salazar is 2-2, 4.60 in five starts this year (under 4-1).
Fulmer is 2-1, 3.19 in five starts this year (over 3-2).
Cleveland lost three of its last four road games; ten of their last 12 games stayed under. Detroit won three of its last four games; over is 8-4-2 in their last 14 games overall.
A’s @ Twins
Cotton is 2-3, 6.00 in five starts this year (under 4-1).
Gibson is 0-3, 9.35 in his last four starts (under 3-2).
Oakland lost eight of its last nine games; they’re 4-10 on road. Four of their last five road games went over. Minnesota won six of its last seven games. Over is 7-1-2 in their last ten games.
Rangers @ Astros
Griffin is 2-0, 2.25 in his last two starts (over 2-1).
Musgrove is 0-2, 5.19 in his last three starts (over 3-1 in his last four).
Texas lost seven of last nine games overall, eight of last nine on road. Over is 13-5-1 in their last 19 games. Houston won nine of last eleven home tilts; over is 8-4 in their last 12 games.
While Sox @ Royals
Holland is 1-0, 2.19 in his last two starts (under 3-2).
Kennedy is 0-0, 1.33 in his last three starts (under 3-2). Royals scored seven runs in his five starts.
Chicago lost three of its last four games; their last three games went under. Kansas City lost ten of its last 12 games; they’re 7-6 at home. Under is 9-2 in their last eleven home games.
Angels @ Mariners
Meyer allowed two runs in 3.2 IP (85 PT) in his first ’17 start, a home loss to Toronto.
Miranda is 2-2, 3.81 in five starts this year (under 4-1).
Angels won seven of last nine games; they’re 6-10 on road. Under is 11-3 in their last 14 road games. Seattle won six of its last eight home games; their last three games went over total.
Interleague
Marlins @ Rays
Straily is 0-1, 2.55 in his last three starts (over 3-2).
Andriese is 1-1, 3.38 in his last four starts (under 3-1 in last four).
Tampa Bay lost three of its last four home games; under is 4-1 in their last five games. Miami lost six of last eight games; over is 6-1 in their last seven road games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
NY-Atl: Wheeler 2-3; Garcia 3-2
Az-Wsh: Shipley 0-0; Scherzer 3-2
Pitt-Cin: Nova 3-2; Adleman 0-2
Phil-Chi: Eflin 2-1; Lackey 2-3
Mil-StL: Anderson 2-3; Wainwright 2-3
Col-SD: Freeland 4-1; Perdomo 1-2
American League
Balt-Bos: Jimenez 4-1; Kendrick 0-0
Clev-Det: Salazar 3-2; Fulmer 3-2
A’s-Min: Cotton 2-3; Gibson 2-3
Tex-Hst: Griffin 3-0; Musgrove 2-3
Chi-KC: Holland 3-2; Kennedy 1-4
LA-Sea: Meyer 0-1; Miranda 3-2
Interleague
Mia-TB: Straily 3-2; Andriese 2-3
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
NY-Atl: Wheeler 3-5; Garcia 2-5
Az-Wsh: Shipley 0-0; Scherzer 2-5
Pitt-Cin: Nova 0-5; Adleman 0-2
Phil-Chi: Eflin 2-3; Lackey 4-5
Mil-StL: Anderson 2-3; Wainwright 2-3
Col-SD: Freeland 1-5; Perdomo 2-3
American League
Balt-Bos: Jimenez 3-5; Kendrick 0-0
Clev-Det: Salazar 3-5; Fulmer 3-5
A’s-Min: Cotton 3-5; Gibson 0-5
Tex-Hst: Griffin 0-3; Musgrove 1-5
Chi-KC: Holland 1-5; Kennedy 0-5
LA-Sea: Meyer 0-1; Miranda 3-5
Interleague
Mia-TB: Straily 0-5; Andriese 3-5
Umpires
National League
Az-Wsh: Three of four Wolcott games stayed under.
NY-Atl: Underdogs won four of five Marquez games this year.
Pitt-Cin: Four of last five Ripperger games stayed under.
Phil-Chi: All five Bellino games this season stayed under.
Mil-StL: Over is 11-4-1 in last 16 Dimuro games.
Col-SD: Three of four Fagan games went over total.
American League
Balt-Bos: Over is 4-1-1 in Wolf games this season.
Clev-Det: Under is 3-1-1 in Demuth games this season.
A’s-Min: Three of four Muchlinski games this year went over.
Tex-Hst: Underdogs are 12-6 in last 18 Randazzo games .
Chi-KC: Under is 7-4-1 in last dozen Miller games.
LA-Sea: Four of last six Cederstrom games went over.
Interleague
TB-Mia: Over is 9-5-1 in last 15 Scheurwater games.
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MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
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Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals
Going back to the well is something that 'Under' gamblers will have no problem doing when Royals face Pale Hose and lefty Derek Holland on Thursday.
Royals' hit-miss offense (2.9 runs/game) has paid dividends for 'Under' gamblers. In the first twenty-six games the result has been 16 'Under, 8 'Over and 2 'Push' including 10 'Under' 3 'Over' at Kauffman Stadium. Another possitive for 'Under' gamblers in this contest, Royals have playing 'Under' in five straight vs a southpaw starter, played 'Under' in three of four during day light hours, have played 'Under' in four straight vs White Sox.
Thursday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Twins (4-0 past four, 6-1 past seven outings)
The Twins carry the longest win streak in the majors (four games) into play Thursday as they look for the sweep against Jharel Cotton and the Athletics. Minnesota has still won just three times over the past nine outings at Target Field. They'll turn to Kyle Gibson to keep it going, but he hasn't exactly been a stopper with a 0-3 record and 8.06 ERA. However, the Twins have won four straight overall against teams with a losing mark while going 4-1 in their past five tries against Americna League West Division foes.
Coldest team Royals (5-12 past 17)
The Royals won for the second time in three games on Wednesday against the White Sox, but they still have a long way to go before bettors can start trusting them again. Kansas City will look for just their third series win of the series in Thursday's get-away game against the Pale Hose. Despite Wednesday's victory the Royals are still just 3-13 in their past 16 outings against American League Central Division foes and 2-10 in their past 12 games overall. However, they have posted five wins over their past six home games against teams with a winning overall record and they're 7-2 in their past nine overall against winning teams. Plus, the ChiSox have won just seven of their past 26 visits to Kauffman Stadium.
Hottest pitcher: Ivan Nova, Pirates (3-2, 1.50 ERA)
Nova heads into Thursday's start in Cincinnati looking to stay hot. The key to Nova's success has been his stinginess with the free passes. Nova has allowed just one walk over 36 innings while limiting the opposition to a .198 batting average. He has a sparkling 0.75 WHIP, so it will be awfully hard for the Reds to make inroads against him even though they're at home. The Reds were able to hang a loss on him in Pittsburgh, however, in an April 12 start. He recorded a quality start in the outing while allowing three earned runs, eight hits and no walks over six innings.
Coldest pitcher: Kyle Gibson, Twins (0-3, 8.06 ERA)
The Twins head into Thursday's game with a four-game win streak, but if they're to make it five in a row Gibson will have to pitch much, much better. He has allowed at least three earned runs in each of his five outings while failing to last longer than 5 1/3 innings. On a positve note he had his finest outing of the season at Kansas City in his most recent outing on April 28, limiting the Royals to three earned runs, five hits and three walks in an 85-pitch outing over 5 1/3 innings. Wile the Twins are just 2-6 in Gibson's past eight at home, they have won 18 of their past 25 with Gibson facing a team with a losing record. And the A's are 1-8 in their past nine road games and 1-6 in their past seven against right-handed starting pitching.
Biggest UNDER run: Indians (6-1 past seven games, 6-0-1 past seven road outings)
The Indians offense has dried up in Motown, posting just six totals runs in the first three outings of the four-game set. The under has cashed in six of the past seven games overall while going 8-1-1 in the past 10 road contests. The under is also 12-3-1 in the past 16 games overall while going 3-0-1 in Danny Salazar's past four overall. The under is also 7-2-1 in Salazar's past 10 road outings against teams with a winning overall record while going 16-5-3 in Cleveland's past 24 overall away from home. If the under hits again it will be against the trends from the Tigers side. The over is 6-2 in Michael Fulmer's past eight overall, including 4-1 in his past five assignments at Comerica Park.
Biggest OVER run: Reds (10-1 past 11 games)
The 'over' just inched over the line in Wednesday's 7-2 win against the Pirates, as the total was 8 1/2 at most shops. That made for 10 over results in the past 11 for Cincinnati, including eight overs in the past 12 outings at Great American Ball Park. The under had been the play for the Bucs recently, going 14-6-1 in their past 21 on the road. However, the over is 5-2 in their past seven overall. The over is also 4-0 in Tim Adleman's past four assignments and 9-1 in their past 10 tries against right-handed starters. The over is 6-1-1 in the past eight meetings between these sides at GABP, and 7-2-1 in the past 10 meetings overall.
Matchup to watch: Angels vs. Mariners
The Angels and Mariners kick off a four-game set at Safeco Field. The Angels will try to solve southpaw Angel Miranda. The Angels are 4-0 in their past four vs. LHP while going 5-2 in their past seven against a team with a losing overall record. The M's have gotten a pick-me-up when Miranda is on the hill. They're 8-3 in Miranda's past 11 starts while going 5-1 over his past six at Safeco Field. They're also 5-1 in Miranda's past six tries against a team with a winning overall record. Seattle is also 4-1 in their past five against right-handed starting pitching.
Betcha didn’t know: Braves 2B Brandon Phillips is looking for a stolen base. His next theft will be the 200th of his career, and he will become the 48th player in Major League Baseball history to swipe 200 bases while also hitting 200 home runs. Ender Inciarte didn't steal a base or collect a hit in Wednesday's game, and he also didn't cross the plate. The Braves are 2-11 in the past 13 games when Inciarte doesn't record a run scored. The Braves are just 1-5 in their past six at SunTrust Park after a hot start at their new digs. Atlanta is also just 3-8 in their past 11 against National League East opponents while going 3-10 in their past 13 following a loss.
Biggest public favorite: Nationals (-260) vs. Diamondbacks
Biggest public underdog: White Sox (+140) at Royals
Biggest line move: Nationals (-225 to -260) vs. Diamondbacks
Orioles, Red Sox meet Thursday
By: Zach Cohen
StatFox.com
The heated series between the Orioles and Red Sox comes to an end when the teams meet in Boston on Thursday.
The Orioles and Red Sox do not like each other, and that has never been clearer than the past few games. There is a ton of bad blood between the two clubs, and that has led to a number of ejections in this series. It’s gotten to the point where a bench-clearing brawl is something that is expected in these games. As for the actual baseball being played, the Sox are going for the series victory in this one. They have won two straight after the O’s won the first game of this series, and Boston has now won four of its past six games. The starters in this Thursday matchup were supposed to be RHP Ubaldo Jimenez (1-1, 7.43 ERA, 16 K) for the Orioles and RHP Kyle Kendrick (First Appearance of 2017) for the Red Sox. Jimenez had to pitch on Wednesday, though, so he will not be out there. He was forced into action due to Gausman’s ejection. Instead, RHP Tyler Wilson (1-1, 5.40 ERA, 4 K) will be taking the ball. Kendrick, meanwhile, is making his first start since 2015. As for trends, one that stands out is the fact that Baltimore is 19-10 against the money line over the past two seasons versus teams that average 0.9 or fewer homers per game.
The Orioles are hoping to get a split in this series with the Red Sox, but they will need a solid performance from Tyler Wilson in this one. The Sox have a dangerous lineup and could do a ton of damage against a guy who wasn’t supposed to be out there for this game. That means that the Orioles offense is going to need to be even better than usual here. One guy who has done well against Kendrick in his career is OF Seth Smith (.222 BA, 2 HR, 4 RBI). Smith is no guarantee to be in the lineup on Thursday, but he is 11-for-22 with three doubles, a triple, and three RBI against Kendrick. He clearly has his number and it’d be wise for Showalter to give him a shot here. Baltimore will also need both OF Mark Trumbo (.200 BA, 2 HR, 12 RBI) and 3B Manny Machado (.214 BA, 6 HR, 16 RBI) to break out of their slumps. Both guys have not yet showed up for the Orioles this season, and it’s time for that to change.
The Red Sox are hoping to win a third straight game on Thursday and Kyle Kendrick will be the guy taking the ball for Boston. Kendrick has not started a game since 2015, but he did pitch pretty solidly during spring training. If he can give the Sox five or so innings of solid work then the team will be more than thrilled. A few guys on Boston will be chomping at the bit to start this contest on Thursday, as they have had success against Jimenez in their careers. Those players would be OF Mookie Betts (.283 BA, 2 HR, 13 RBI) and 2B Dustin Pedroia (.279 BA, 0 HR, 7 RBI). Betts is 9-for-23 against Jimenez in his career, and Pedroia is 12-for-36 with two doubles and four RBI against the righty. Both of them will need to come through on Thursday, and it’s likely that they’ll do just that.
MLB Daily Line Drive
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Double-Play Picks
Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals (-270, 8 )
Max Scherzer gets the ball for the Washington Nationals today and he is one of those special starting pitchers who has no-hitter potential every time he climbs the hill. His last start, against the New York Mets, was a bit rough (5 ER over 6 IP) and Scherzer has a long history of bouncing back with great performances after sketchy outings.
Scherzer usually faces lower totals than the 8 that is on the board today, and that is likely due to his mound opponent for the Diamondbacks. Braden Shipley makes is 2017 debut for Arizona after being recalled from AAA and, based on reports out of Phoenix, he is ready to take a rotation spot and his stuff has been terrific this season. Shipley pitched decent at the end of 2016 and cashed in on the Under in four of his last five starts.
Today's outlook is a dominant Scherzer performance and a decent outing by Shipley.
Pick: Under 8
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners (-130, 8.5)
The Seattle Mariners are certainly not living up to their lofty preseason expectations, but they are 7-4 at Safeco Field this season and send another one of their good young arms to the hill Thursday night against the Angels.
Ariel Miranda gets the ball for the M's and he has been very good over his last three starts with a 2-1 Team W/L, 2.93 ERA, and 0.98 WHIP. His last start at home was seven innings of shutout baseball that included only four hits allowed, zero walks, and five strikeouts.
Alex Meyer is making his second start of the season for the Angels. His only other outing was a disappointing 3.2 innings at home against the Toronto Blue Jays where he allowed two earned runs and walked four batters.
Pick: Mariners -130
Yesterday: 1-1
Season: 20-19-1
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Ivan Nova, Pittsburgh Pirates (3-2, 1.50 ERA, $74)
Ivan Nova was awarded with the National League's Pitcher Of The Month award Wednesday, and for good reason. His win/loss record may not be anything to write home about at 3-2, but he hasn't actually been getting help from his offense and bullpen.
Nova owns a 1.50 ERA over five starts in April and has been especially good in his last two appearances with a complete game, three hit shoutout last time out and seven innings of four-hit, one-run ball against the Yankees on April 23.
The biggest stat for Nova is the fact that has only walked one batter in 36 innings thus far in 2017. Throw strikes and good things will happen. Nova and the Pirates are +100 dogs today in Cincinnati.
Slumping: Kyle Gibson, Minnesota Twins (0-3, 8.06 ERA, $-89)
Twins' starter Kyle Gibson is coming off his best start of the 2017 season. The simple fact that a three-run performance over 5.1 innings with one strikout is you best outing of the season really says a lot about how your season is going.
Gibson takes the mound Thursday for the first place Minnesota Twins as a -115 favorite over Jharel Cotton and the A's. His 0-3 win/loss record and 8.06 ERA through five starts doesn't exactly speak to being a favorite over anybody - and his opponent's on base percentage of .402 is attrocious.
Thursday's Top Trends
* Over is 10-1 in the Cincinnati Reds' last 11 overall. Total is currently 8 vs Pirates.
* The Kansas City Royals are 3-13 in their last 16 vs. American League Central. Royals -131 vs White Sox.
* The Miami Marlins are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter. Marlins +115 @ Rays.
* Over is 12-3 in the Milwaukee Brewers' last 15 overall. Total is currently 7.5 vs Brewers.
Weather to Keep an Eye On
According to the forecast, it looks the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves are set for an unpleasant night of baseball in Georgia. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-60’s with humidity in the 80’s, and thunderstorms forecasted. As for the wind, it definitely lends itself to pitching, blowing straight IN from center field.
There is an 89 percent chance of rain at the time of first pitch, however, that percentage drops as the night goes. Which would suggest a rain delay over a straight postponement, only adding to what could be a miserable evening at SunTrust Park. The total is currently 8.5.
In St. Louis, rain is in the forecast all day but is expected to to be finished by first pitch. The wind will continue 20mph heading IN from left. The total is currently 7.5.
Ump of the Day
Tripp Gibson III. Gibson will be calling balls and strikes for this evening’s game between the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium and, based on recent history, this is great news for the redbirds. The Cardinals have won five of the last six games with Gibson behind the plate and home teams so far this season have won four of five. The home team is -150 chalk Thursday night in Missouri.