MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, October 19th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
LA DODGERS (110 - 58) at CHICAGO CUBS (95 - 75) - 9:05 PM
ALEX WOOD (L) vs. JAKE ARRIETA (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 7-2 (+5.3 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
7 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+6.1 Units)
ALEX WOOD vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
WOOD is 1-2 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 3.24 and a WHIP of 1.560.
His team's record is 1-4 (-3.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-1. (+2.8 units)
JAKE ARRIETA vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
ARRIETA is 1-4 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 4.25 and a WHIP of 1.028.
His team's record is 1-5 (-5.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-2. (+1.6 units)
LA DODGERS @ CHI CUBS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
LA DODGERS @ CHI CUBS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
MLB Playoffs
Dodgers @ Cubs
Dodgers are 7-3 vs Chicago this season, 3-1 in this series; they shut Cubs out in 3 of the 7 wins. Home team won eight of ten series games (under 8-2).
Kershaw is 2-0, 3.86 in his last four starts; under is 4-1 in his last five outings. Dodgers are 11-2 in his last 13 road starts. He is 0-0, 5.79 in two starts against the Cubs this season, is 5-7, 4.17 in 20 career playoff games (16 starts).
Quintana is 0-0, 4.11 in his last three starts; under is 4-1 in his last five starts. Cubs are 7-0 in his last seven home starts. He is 0-0, 1.59 in three career playoff games (2 starts), he allowed two runs in five IP in his only ’17 start against the Dodgers.
Armadillosports.com
MLB Betting Picks & Tips
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
Perhaps the most compelling game, at least from a betting standpoint, is Game 5 between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Chicago Cubs. With the ALCS taking a break for a travel day down to Houston, the NLCS is the only game in town, so it is going to draw a significant amount of betting action and interest.
I’ll break it all down for you here in today’s picks and analysis piece for October 19, 2017:
Los Angeles (-160) at Chicago
Per usual, we don’t have a morning total for a game at Wrigley Field. This is a fascinating handicap. Jose Quintana takes the mound for the Cubs as they look to avoid elimination for the second straight day. The Dodgers will respond with ace Clayton Kershaw. I’ve talked at length about the perception of Playoff Clayton Kershaw. With him opening this high of a favorite in an elimination game, it will be very interesting to see how the betting market approaches this game.
Thus far, the movement has been on the Dodgers. BetOnline opened this number around -146 and it is up to -155 at time of writing. 5Dimes opened -150 and is up to -158. Pinnacle went up over -160 and has since come back down a couple of cents. There is a lot going on with this game and there are a lot of Dodger-centric storylines to consider.
I’ve talked about this before, but the Dodgers have one goal. This team was built for one reason. Large amounts of money were poured into this roster to bring a World Series to Los Angeles. The Dodgers have made the playoffs in six straight seasons and don’t even have an NL pennant to show for it. Every contending team has the goal of winning the World Series, but we all know that it’s different with the Dodgers and has been for a while now.
Even though Kershaw is the best pitcher on the planet (please, @ me), his career numbers in the postseason don’t support it. In 100.1 innings of work, Kershaw has a 4.57 ERA with a 3.68 FIP and a 3.26 xFIP. Nobody cares that he has a 117/31 K/BB ratio because he has allowed 15 HR and has given up 55 runs. It’s sad that baseball and pro sports are set up in a way that throwing 1,935 elite innings in the regular season means nothing to some people because of Kershaw’s playoff struggles, but that’s just the way that it is.
Kershaw worked five innings and allowed two runs on four hits in Game 1. Jose Quintana basically matched him, but the Dodgers bullpen won the day and the Cubs bullpen lost the day. For me, this is all mental for Kershaw and it’s hard for me to handicap that. I know what he’s capable of. Everybody does. I cannot, in good conscience, go against that upside when he’s plenty capable of shoving with seven shutout to pitch the team to the World Series.
Jose Quintana has been terrific. I can’t argue with that. Quintana rocked a 3.74 ERA with a 3.25 FIP and a 3.24 xFIP in his 84.1 innings of work with the Cubs after he was traded from the South Side to the North Side. In 11.1 playoff innings, Quintana has allowed three runs, two earned, on just five hits with an 11/4 K/BB ratio. He’s a good pitcher to go up against Kershaw. What surprises me, and I mentioned this prior to Game 1, is that this is Jose Quintana’s first playoff experience with such a terrific career, but the White Sox didn’t give him much support. Quintana allowed two runs on just two hits with four strikeouts and a couple walks in Game 1.
The Cubs bullpen nailed one down in Game 4 to stay alive, which was good to see, but I’m not sure that there will be any carryover effect. The bigger carryover effect is that Wade Davis had to get a six-out save and throw 48 pitches in the process. It was a giant struggle for him with three walks and a home run allowed to Justin Turner. As he has throughout the playoffs, Dave Roberts limited pitch counts for most of his relievers and didn’t have to use Kenley Jansen.
The Dodgers have the upper hand here again, especially in a bullpen capacity. If you truly believe that Quintana and Kershaw go pitch-for-pitch again, then laying -160 on a bullpen game isn’t really +EV, even with how much better the Dodgers pen is. If you think Kershaw can outpitch Quintana and the Dodgers can outhit the Cubs, a Cubs team that has scored just seven runs in four games in this series, then the -160 is reasonable with the Dodgers’ bullpen advantage as a contributing factor, but not the sole justification.