MLB Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 2

ALDS - Tigers at Orioles
By Sportsbook.ag

Detroit Tigers (90-72) at Baltimore Orioles (96-66)

Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Detroit -125, Baltimore +115, Total: 7

The Tigers and Orioles open their 2014 postseason on Thursday at Camden Yards with Game 1 of the ALDS.

Detroit made the playoffs after beating out Kansas City while going 4-2 in its final six games of the year. The offense was phenomenal during the season, ranking first in the majors in batting average (.277), second in runs (757) and second in on-base percentage (.331). The offense was led by 1B Miguel Cabrera (.313 BA) and DH Victor Martinez (.335 BA) who combined to drive in 212 runs while smacking 57 homers. This duo has not been alone though, and 2B Ian Kinsler (.275 BA) is red-hot coming into the postseason, going 12-for-41 (.293) with three homers, 10 RBI and seven runs in his final 10 games.

Baltimore had no problem winning the AL East, finishing the regular season 12 games ahead of the second-place Yankees. Just like Detroit, this club won with a stellar offense that pounded out the most home runs in the league (211) while putting up the eighth-most runs (705). OF Nelson Cruz (.271 BA) was the big run producer on the team with 40 homers and 108 RBI while OF Adam Jones (.281 BA) put up another huge season, tallying 29 homers, 96 RBI and 88 runs. Jones also brings a four-game hitting streak into the postseason in which he is 5-for-17 with two taters and 5 RBI. This contest will feature Tigers ace RHP Max Scherzer (18-5, 3.19 ERA) facing RHP Chris Tillman (13-6, 3.34 ERA) of the host Orioles.

Detroit has done very well on the road with a 45-36 record (.556, T-6th in majors) while Baltimore has an exceptional 50-31 mark (.617, 5th in MLB) at Camden Yards.

The Tigers hold a slight 10-8 edge in this matchup over the past three seasons and are 5-1 in the series in 2014. The last time these two clubs met, Detroit swept the O's in Baltimore over three games; outscoring them 15-7.

The injury report has no significant injuries to any Tigers on it, while Baltimore continues to miss the services of 3B Manny Machado (knee) who is out for the season.

Max Scherzer has been striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings in each of the past three years and has a 55-15 record (.786) in that time. In 2014 he allowed a career-low 0.74 HR/9 in 220.1 frames while maintaining a solid walk rate (2.6 BB/9). He has pitched at least six innings in nine of his past 10 starts in leading his team to an 8-2 record over that time. The right-hander has been strong his postseason career, going 4-2 with a 3.42 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and a remarkable 12.0 K/9 rate (74 K's in 55.1 IP). Scherzer has started six games against the Orioles in his career, going 3-1 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.36 WHIP while giving up five homers in just 39 innings of work.

OFs Nelson Cruz (8-for-21, 1 HR, 4 RBI), Adam Jones (9-for-18, 2 doubles, 1 HR, 2 RBI) and Nick Markakis (5-for-16, 2 doubles) have all done well in their time against the righty, while SS J.J. Hardy (4-for-23, 1 HR, 2 RBI) has been poor in the matchup.

Detroit’s bullpen has been the club's biggest weakness over the past few years and it is 22-17 (.564) with a 4.29 ERA and 1.48 WHIP while going 41-for-57 (72%) in save opportunities. Joe Nathan (4.81 ERA, 35 saves) did not do great in the closer role this year, as he walked 4.5 batters per nine innings and blew seven saves.

Chris Tillman has been the No. 1 option in the Orioles rotation as he has pitched his second consecutive season with 200 or more innings while having a mediocre strikeout rate (6.5 K/9). He has always had some luck on his side with batters going a career .273 BABIP against him while leaving 76.7% of batters on base in 2014. But Tillman is hot coming into his first career postseason appearance, as he has allowed three or fewer runs in 10 of his past 11 starts, going 6-1 with a 2.14 ERA and leading his team to a 10-1 record in that time. When facing Detroit in his career (6 starts), he is 3-0 with a 3.58 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, and has walked 17 batters in his 37.2 frames.

Both DH Victor Martinez (4-for-10, 2 RBI) and 1B Miguel Cabrera (5-for-13, 1 double, 1 HR, 4 RBI) have enjoyed facing Tillman, while C Alex Avila and OF J.D. Martinez have combined to go 1-for-9 with two strikeouts against him. The bullpen for Baltimore has gone 28-21 (.571) with a stellar 3.10 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, and has successfully saved 53-of-72 (74%) contests.

Closer Zach Britton (1.65 ERA, 37 saves) has forced batters to hit an amazing 75.3% of balls on the ground with his nasty sinker while benefiting from hitters batting a mere .215 BABIP against him.

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ALDS Doubleheader: Tigers at Orioles, Royals at Angels
By Covers.com

Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles (+110, 7)

The Detroit Tigers are enjoying their fourth straight American League Central Division crown but are still looking for their first World Series title since 1984. The Baltimore Orioles, who host Tigers in Game 1 of the AL Division Series on Thursday, are appearing in the postseason for the second time in three years after a drought of 15 seasons. The AL East champion Orioles battled into the last week for the best record in the AL after running away with the division.

Detroit has been in postseason mode for the last month while fighting off the Kansas City Royals in the Central and appear primed for the series with Justin Verlander coming around to solidify the rotation. The question with the Tigers has always been the bullpen, but closer Joe Nathan did manage to put together four straight scoreless appearances to close the regular season and Anibal Sanchez has been added to the setup mix. Baltimore does not have the big-name starters like Detroit but overcame the loss of Manny Machado and Chris Davis on offense thanks in part to a bullpen that ranked third in the AL with a 3.10 ERA.

LINE HISTORY:The initial opening saw the O's as +114 home dogs, but as of Wednesday morning they moved slightly to +110. The total has not shifted from the opening 7.

INJURY REPORT: Tigers - OF Rajai Davis (Ques-Groin) Orioles - N/A

WEATHER: Gametime will see temperatures in the low 70°F range with a slight breeze blowing out towards left field.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Tigers (-187), Orioles (-196)

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Make it four A.L. Central titles in a row for the Tigers. They have the pedigree and the talent to represent the A.L. in the World Series. The O's might be the most well-balanced team in baseball, but I'm not sure their pitching will hold up for three rounds." Covers Expert Sean Murphy

PITCHING MATCHUP: Tigers RH Max Scherzer (18-5, 3.15 ERA) vs. Orioles RH Chris Tillman (13-6, 3.34)

Scherzer is set to make a killing in free agency this winter and can only increase his market value with another successful postseason. The reigning Cy Young Award winner appeared in four playoff games last fall and went 2-1 with a 2.82 ERA and 34 strikeouts in 22 1/3 total innings. Scherzer has not faced Baltimore since a pair of starts in 2013, when he allowed four runs in 14 innings.

Tillman had a string of 20 straight starts allowing three or fewer earned runs come to an end in his final regular-season turn at Toronto on Friday, when he was reached for four runs and 11 hits in six frames. The 26-year-old did not walk a batter in that start and has issued two or fewer free passes in each of his last five outings. Tillman last faced the Tigers in Detroit on April 6 and held them to one run on five hits in 8 1/3 innings to pick up the win

TRENDS:

*Under is 7-0-1 in Tigers last 8 Divisional Playoff road games.
*Orioles are 15-6 in their last 21 during game 1 of a series.
*Orioles are 4-0 in Tillman's last 4 starts vs. Tigers.
*Tigers are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 53.63 percent of Covers users are behind the O's +110 with 62 percent of total action on the over.

Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels

Jered Weaver will try to cool down Kansas City when the Los Angeles Angels host the revved-up Royals in Game 1 of the American League Division Series on Thursday. Kansas City recorded a wild 9-8, 12-inning victory over the Oakland Athletics in Tuesday’s wild-card game, stealing seven bases to match a postseason record and scoring twice in the bottom of the 12th for the win. The Angels led the AL with 98 victories and won the AL West by 10 games.

There was a lot of chatter about Garrett Richards supplanting Weaver as Los Angeles’ ace until Richards suffered a season-ending knee injury. Weaver ended up tied for AL lead in victories and he is being counted on to step up in a postseason in which Los Angeles expects to reach the World Series. The Royals, who displayed big-time resilience in the wild-card victory, will start Jason Vargas – Weaver’s former college teammate at Long Beach State.

INJURY REPORT: Royals - N/A Angels - OF Josh Hamilton (Prob, Shoulder)

WEATHER: Temperature for first pitch is projected to be in the low 90° range, but will quickly drop to 80°. There will be a small 6 mph wind towards right field.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Royals (-173), Angels (-206)

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The undisputed best team in baseball entering the postseason - and few saw it coming. Will a letdown be in order for the playoff-starved Royals fan base? We'll find out." Covers Expert Sean Murphy

PITCHING MATCHUP: Royals LH Jason Vargas (11-10, 3.71 ERA) vs. Angels RH Jered Weaver (18-9, 3.59)

Vargas had a rough September, going 1-3 with a 6.57 ERA in five outings. He had a 6.10 ERA in two no-decisions against Los Angeles this season and is 5-4 with a 3.02 ERA in 15 career appearances (14 starts) against the Angels. Vargas went 9-8 with a 4.02 ERA for Los Angeles in 2013 before leaving as a free agent and signing with Kansas City.

Weaver didn’t face the Royals this season and is 7-4 with a 2.21 ERA in 12 career starts. This will be his fourth career postseason start and he is 2-1 with a 2.61 ERA in six appearances (three starts). Weaver went 3-2 with a 3.66 ERA in five September starts and gave up three homers while losing to Seattle in his final regular-season start.

TRENDS:

*Royals are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
*Under is 26-12 in Angels last 38 home games.
*Royals are 3-7 in the last 10 meetings.
*Angels are 6-0 in Weavers last 6 starts vs. Royals.

MLB Playoffs

Tigers-Orioles

Scherzer is 3-0, 2.70 in his last four starts; he allowed two runs in four IP vs Baltimore this year. Scherzer is 4-2, 3.42 in nine postseason starts.

Tillman is making his first postseason start; he is 5-1, 2.52 in his last 10 starts. Tillman won his only start vs Detroit this year, allowing one run in 8.1 IP.

Tigers are 10-6 in last 16 road games; they're in playoffs for 4th year in row; they won this round last three years, won World Series in 2012.

Orioles are 20-6 in their last 26 home games; they lost in this round in 2012, their only playoff appearamce since '97.

Scherzer 24-9.....8-33 first inning
Tillman 24-10 (11-1 last 12).........12-34 first inning

Royals-Angels

Vargas is 0-4, 9.00 in his last four starts; he allowed seven runs in 10.1 IP in two starts (0-0) against the Angels this season. This is his first postseason appearance.

Weaver is 4-2, 3.00 in his last six starts; he didn't pitch against the Royals this year, is 2-1, 2.61 in six postseason games (3 starts).

Royals won seven of last nine games, six of last eight on road; this is their first playoff since 1985. Just know that Yost is a sub-par game manager.

Angels jogged to AL West title, lost seven of last ten games; they're in playoffs for first time since 2009- they made playoffs six out of eight years ('02-'09), winning 2002 World Series.

Vargas 14-16.........6-30 first inning (4 of last 7)
Weaver 22-12........6-34 first inning
Two starting pitchers were college teammates at Long Beach State.

Armadillosports.com

Tigers vs. Orioles Odds and Picks
By: The Linemakers
Sportingnews.com

Game 1 of the ALDS between the Tigers and Orioles begins Thursday in Baltimore (5:37 p.m. ET, TBS). Detroit is the -150 favorite at the Golden Nugget to win the series, with the O’s getting back odds of +130. For Game 1, Detroit's Max Scherzer is a -115 favorite over Chris Tillman at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

ALDS - Detroit Tigers (90-72) at Baltimore Orioles (96-66)
Series Price: Tigers -150/+130 (Golden Nugget)
Season Series: Tigers won 5-1
AL Pennant odds: Tigers 9/5, Orioles 13/4 (Westgate)
World Series odds: Tigers 9/2, Orioles 7/1 (Westgate)

Series lean: The Linemakers on Sporting News’ Kenny White likes the Tigers to advance based on their starting pitching edge and Baltimore being without Chris Davis, Manny Machado and Matt Wieters, while Micah Roberts thinks the underrated Orioles pitching staff will surprise like it did throughout the critical month of September. Buck Showalter is owed some championship love, according to Roberts, who notes Joe Torre took Showalter’s players to titles in the Bronx and Bob Brenly took his Arizona club to a title 2001. We’re split here.

Game 1, Thursday: Max Scherzer (18-5, 3.15 ERA) -115, 7 OV -120 vs. Chris Tillman (13-6, 3.34)
Game 2, Friday: Justin Verlander (15-12, 4.54) vs. BALT - TBA
Game 3, Sunday: BALT - TBA vs. David Price (15-12, 3.26)
Game 4, Monday: BALT TBA vs. Rick Porcello (15-13, 3.43)

Tigers/Orioles trends:
Baltimore was 75-47 against right-handed pitchers for a +32.4 return on investment.
Baltimore was 45-27 against winning teams (1-5 vs. DET) for +24 units of profit.
Detroit swept all three games played at Baltimore this season as the favorite in each.

Game 1 Linemakers lean: The only game the Orioles beat Detroit this season was on April 6, when Tillman beat Verlander, 3-1. Tillman is 3-0 against Detroit in six career starts. Scherzer didn’t face the Orioles this season, but the Tigers did win his last five starts. Money has moved the Tigers from a -124 favorite at the South Point down to -113. Kenny White likes Detroit in the series opener, while Roberts is giving the home team the edge. So we're split here, as we are with the series.

Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles, Game 1 props

Total Strikeouts thrown by: Max Scherzer (Det)
Over 7.5 +115
Under 7.5 -135

Will Max Scherzer (Det) allow a Home Run?
Yes +105
No -125

Total Strikeouts thrown by: Chris Tillman (Bal)
Over 5.0 +110
Under 5.0 -130

Will Chris Tillman (Bal) allow a Home Run?
Yes -120
No EVEN

Most Total Bases
(Single=1, Double=2, Triple=3, Home Run=4, All else=0)
Miguel Cabrera (Det) -110
Nelson Cruz (Bal) -110

Total Runs+Hits+Errors by: Tigers+Orioles
Over 24.5 -110
Under 24.5 -110

Royals vs. Angels Odds and Picks
By: The Linemakers
Sportingnews.com

The Angels are -170 favorites for Game 1 of the ALDS against the Royals on Thursday night (9:07 p.m. ET, TBS). Kansas City is priced at William Hill as the +155 underdog.

Here are series and futures odds, picks, trends and props from The Linemakers on Sporting News.

ALDS - Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels
Series Price: Angels -180/+160 (South Point, opened -200)
Season Series: Tied 3-3
AL Pennant odds: Angels 9/5, Royals 5/1
World Series odds: Angels 9/2, Royals 10/1

Series lean: The Linemakers’ Kenny White likes the Angels to advance easily through this stage, and their price is dropping, while Micah Roberts – based on the fantastic Septembers by Yordano Ventura, Jeremy Guthrie and James Shields – isn’t so sure. However, Roberts still has the Angels advancing to the World Series, which currently pays 9-to-5 odds.

Game 1, Thursday: Jason Vargas (11-10, 3.85 ERA) vs. Jered Weaver (18-9, 3.59)
Game 2, Friday: Yordano Ventura (14-10, 3.20) vs. Matt Shoemaker (16-4, 3.04)
Game 3, Sunday: C.J. Wilson (13-10, 4.51) vs. Jeremy Guthrie (tentatively)

Royals/Angels trends:
Royals were 44-35 playing against winning teams for +6.9 unit profit margin.
Royals were 1-6 when playing as road dog from +150 to +175 for -4.4 units.
Angels were 36-38 playing against winning teams for -4.4 unit loss.
Angels were 52-29 playing at home for +11.8 units of profit.

Game 1 Linemakers lean: This is a bad spot for Jason Vargas. In September, he fooled no one, as his 6.57 ERA attests. Kansas City lost his final four starts, and he was the weak link to a postseason bid. His resume is also muddied by two starts against the Angels this season, where he gave up seven runs over 10 1/3 innings. Weaver should get the win here.

Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels, Game 1 props

Total Strikeouts thrown by: Jason Vargas (KC)
Over 4.5 EVEN
Under 4.5 -120

Will Jason Vargas (KC) allow a Home Run?
Yes -110
No -110

Total Strikeouts thrown by: Jered Weaver (LAA)
Over 5.0 EVEN
Under 5.0 -120

Will Jered Weaver (LAA) allow a Home Run?
Yes EVEN
No -120

Most Total Bases
(Single=1, Double=2, Triple=3, Home Run=4, All else=0)
Eric Hosmer (KC) +120
Albert Pujols (LAA) -140

Total Runs+Hits+Errors by: Royals+Angels
Over 26.5 -110
Under 26.5 -110