MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, October 5th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
BOSTON (93 - 69) at HOUSTON (101 - 61) - 4:05 PM
CHRIS SALE (L) vs. JUSTIN VERLANDER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 0-10 (-10.8 Units) against the money line in October games over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 7-11 (-8.2 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday this season.
SALE is 3-9 (-11.5 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SALE is 22-32 (-16.8 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss since 1997. (Team's Record)
HOUSTON is 101-61 (+11.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BOSTON is 44-25 (+13.0 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
HOUSTON is 12-22 (-17.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 21-24 (-13.6 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
HOUSTON is 48-43 (-16.6 Units) against the money line in home games after a win over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 32-39 (-19.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 15-23 (-14.9 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-3 (+0.4 Units) against BOSTON this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.7 Units)
CHRIS SALE vs. HOUSTON since 1997
SALE is 5-1 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 1.31 and a WHIP of 0.708.
His team's record is 5-1 (+3.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-4. (-2.3 units)
JUSTIN VERLANDER vs. BOSTON since 1997
VERLANDER is 5-6 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 2.77 and a WHIP of 1.105.
His team's record is 8-10 (-3.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-10. (-5.6 units)
NY YANKEES (92 - 71) at CLEVELAND (102 - 60) - 7:35 PM
SONNY GRAY (R) vs. TREVOR BAUER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 19-30 (-11.3 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
NY YANKEES are 11-22 (-13.0 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
NY YANKEES are 14-20 (-13.5 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 48-43 (-7.8 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
GRAY is 19-30 (-17.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GRAY is 6-17 (-11.6 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GRAY is 4-11 (-10.0 Units) against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record)
GRAY is 20-27 (-18.5 Units) against the money line after a win since 1997. (Team's Record)
CLEVELAND is 206-132 (+22.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 95-47 (+28.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 13-3 (+12.8 Units) against the money line in October games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 27-7 (+19.1 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 98-66 (+18.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 24-10 (+11.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
NY YANKEES are 47-31 (+13.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
CLEVELAND is 29-24 (-14.8 Units) against the money line in home games in night games this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 5-2 (+3.2 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-0.4 Units)
SONNY GRAY vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
GRAY is 3-3 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 3.38 and a WHIP of 1.146.
His team's record is 4-4 (+0.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-2. (+2.8 units)
TREVOR BAUER vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
BAUER is 3-4 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 4.60 and a WHIP of 1.511.
His team's record is 4-4 (+0.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-3. (-0.2 units)
BOSTON vs. HOUSTON
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Boston is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Houston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games at home
NY YANKEES vs. CLEVELAND
NY Yankees are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games at home
BOSTON @ HOUSTON
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games on the road
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games at home
NY YANKEES @ CLEVELAND
NY Yankees is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 7 games
Cleveland is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games at home
Cleveland is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games
StatFox Super Situations
BOSTON at HOUSTON
Play On - Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (HOUSTON) good offensive team (>=5.1 runs/game) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA<=3.50) (AL), after a one run win 70-25 since 1997. ( 73.7% | 35.1 units ) 2-2 this year. ( 50.0% | -1.1 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends
MLB | BOSTON at HOUSTON
BOSTON is 35-14 (+20.4 Units) against the money line in Road games vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was: BOSTON (4.7) , OPPONENT (3.1)
MLB Playoffs
Boston @ Houston
Astros are 4-3 vs Boston this season; road team won five of the seven games. Astros were just in Beantown last weekend, taking 3 of 4 mostly meaningless games.
Sale is 2-1, 3.38 in his last four starts; his last five starts went over. This is his first playoff game. He is 5-1, 1.31 in six career starts vs Houston, but none were this year.
Verlander is 5-0, 1.06 in five starts since coming to Houston (under 4-1). He is 4-2, 1.76 in his last 8 playoff starts.
Red Sox are in playoffs for 3rd time in last five years; they got swept 3-0 by Cleveland in this round last year. Houston is in playoffs for second time in three years; they’ve never won the World Series, losing 4-0 to the White Sox in 2005.
New York @ Cleveland
New York is 2-5 vs Cleveland this season; road teams won five of the seven games. Losing team scored 1 or 2 runs in six of the seven games.
Gray is 1-3, 5.56 in his last four starts; under is 6-3-2 in his starts for New York. He is 1-2, 5.94 vs Cleveland this season. New York is 2-4 in his road starts.
Bauer is 3-1, 2.90 in his last five starts; under is 5-1 in his last six starts. He is 2-0, 1.38 vs New York this season. Cleveland is 6-2 in his last eight home starts.
New York is in the playoffs for second time in the last five years; they last made the ALCS in 2012- they beat Twins 7-4 in Wild Card game Tuesday, with bullpen getting 26 of the 27 outs.
Indians lost Game 7 of the World Series last year; they haven’t won a World Series since 1948. They’re in playoffs for 3rd time in last five years.
Armadillosports.com
Thursday's MLB Division Series Betting Preview
Covers.com
Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros (-130, 7)
The Houston Astros battled all the way into the final weekend in the race for the best record in the American League and fell just short, leaving them to host the third-seeded AL East champion Boston Red Sox in Game 1 of the AL Division Series on Thursday. The second-seeded Astros made the biggest move of the waiver deadline period by bringing in Justin Verlander from the Detroit Tigers and will send him to the mound in Game 1.
Verlander brings a 7-5 record and a 3.39 ERA in 16 career postseason starts to a Houston squad that led the AL in team batting average at .282 and features probable MVP and batting champion Jose Altuve. "I think that's the main goal, just be able to keep your feel, be able to come into the start, and be consistent," Verlander told reporters of his approach to the game. "As a starting pitcher, that's what it's about. I'm going to do whatever I can to help maintain my mechanics and the feel on the mound." The Red Sox will counter with Cy Young candidate Chris Sale, who struggled in September but had the luxury of taking the final day of the regular season off after Boston beat the Astros on Saturday to clinch the AL East. The Astros took three of four in that series and four of seven from the Red Sox during the regular season and went 48-33 at Minute Maid Park.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Red Sox LH Chris Sale (17-8, 2.90 ERA) vs. Astros RH Justin Verlander (15-8, 3.36)
Sale went 3-4 with a 4.30 ERA over his final eight starts and struggled to keep the ball in the park at times, including his final start against Toronto on Sept. 26 in which he served up four home runs. The Florida native will be making his first career postseason start and is 5-1 with a 1.31 ERA in six career starts against Houston. "I'm 28 years old, so I've been waiting for this about 23 years," Sale told reporters. "This has been a long time coming. A lot of hard work went into this. It's a long season. We had a lot of guys put everything they had on the field the entire season. To have this opportunity right here, it's the best."
Verlander earned his spot at the top of the Astros postseason rotation by going 5-0 with a 1.06 ERA in five starts since joining the team. The former MVP allowed four runs (three earned) in 12 innings over two starts against Boston earlier this season, though he did not factor in either decision. "You can't get prepared for it," Verlander told reporters of starting in the postseason. "You have to experience it by being out there and feeling the adrenaline, and experiencing it for yourself."
TRENDS:
* Red Sox are 1-5 in their last 6 Divisional Playoff road games.
* Astros are 11-2 in their last 13 home games.
* Astros are 5-0 in Verlander's 5 starts since joining the team.
* Over is 5-0 in Sale's last 5 starts overall.
* Over is 10-2 in Astros' last 12 Divisional Playoff games.
* Over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.
CONSENSUS: The public is leaning toward the home favorite Astros with 60 percent of the picks and Over is grabbing a surprising 58 percent of the totals wagers.
New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians (-135, 8.5)
Terry Francona made liberal use of his bullpen weapons while guiding the Cleveland Indians to the World Series last season, and Joe Girardi took that philosophy a step further while guiding the New York Yankees to the American League Division Series with a win in the wild-card game Tuesday. Girardi will try to find a way to beat Francona and the best team in the AL when the Yankees visit the top-seeded Indians in Game 1 of the AL Division Series on Thursday.
Girardi got 26 outs from his bullpen after yanking starter Luis Severino with one out and three runs in in the first inning Tuesday against the Minnesota Twins, and Chad Green, David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle and Aroldis Chapman proved to be up to the task as the Yankees pulled out an 8-4 victory. "If you're playing four games in five nights, it's really difficult to do," Girardi told reporters of leaning heavily on the relievers. "You can do it probably two of the games of the four, but you can't do it back to back. And a lot of times you can -- if you were to do it on Game 2, you probably can't even do it on Game 3, even with the off-day in between." Francona rode left-hander Andrew Miller hard in the 2016 postseason and won't be afraid to do so again, though the Indians might have an even better team in 2017 after finishing the regular season with 33 wins in their last 37 games. Cleveland surprised some by choosing Trevor Bauer to start Game 1 over ace Corey Kluber, while New York is expected to counter with Sonny Gray.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Yankees RH Sonny Gray (10-12, 3.55 ERA) vs. Indians RH Trevor Bauer (17-9, 4.19)
Gray went 4-7 with a 3.72 ERA in 11 starts after being acquired from the Oakland Athletics prior to the trade deadline but struggled some in September, surrendering nine home runs in 35 1/3 innings. The Vanderbilt product, who lost at Cleveland in his New York debut on Aug. 3, was ripped for six runs on six hits - two homers - over 4 2/3 innings in his final regular-season outing on Saturday. Gray is 0-1 in two career postseason starts despite a 2.08 ERA.
Bauer aided the Indians' sprint to the finish by going 9-1 with a 2.42 ERA over his last 13 games (12 starts) and allowed two runs in 13 innings over his final two starts. Two of those 13 outings came against New York on Aug. 4 and Aug. 30, and the UCLA product breezed to wins in both by scattering two runs over 13 frames and striking out 11. Bauer, who gets the start over Cy Young candidate Kluber so that Kluber can come back on regular rest in a potential Game 5 or Game 1 of the ALCS, went 0-2 with a 5.27 ERA in five games (four starts) during the 2016 postseason.
TRENDS:
* Yankees are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Yankees are 2-6 in their last 8 playoff road games.
* Indians are 42-9 in their last 51 overall.
* Indians are 6-0 in Bauer's last 6 starts vs. American League East.
* Under is 5-1 in Bauer's last 6 starts overall.
* Over is 9-3-2 in the last 14 meetings in Cleveland.
CONSENSUS: The public is leaning toward the home favorite Indians with 77 percent of the picks and Over is grabbing a 62 percent of the totals wagers.
ALDS Cheat Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
2017 Head-to-Head Matchups (Houston 4-3, Under 4-2)
Houston vs. Boston (Minute Maid Park)
June 16 - Red Sox 2 Astros 1 (Under 9)
June 17 - Astros 7 Red Sox 1 (Under 9)
June 18 - Red Sox 6 Astros 5 (Over 9)
Boston vs. Houston (Fenway Park)
Sept. 28 - Astros 12 Red Sox 2 (Over 9)
Sept. 29 - Astros 3 Red Sox 2 (Under 10)
Sept. 30 - Red Sox 6 Astros 3 (Over 8.5)
Oct. 1 - Astros 4 Red Sox 3 (Under 9)
The Red Sox and Astros are meeting in the postseason for the first time ever in the American League Divisional Series. Boston (93-69) is back in the playoffs for the second straight season as the Sox tries to erase last year’s memory of getting swept by Cleveland in the opening round. Following the retirement of future of Hall of Famer David Ortiz, the Red Sox started 2017 with a subpar 21-21 record. However, Boston turned things around to close the first half at 50-39, while going 8-1 in the final nine games away from Fenway Park.
Chris Sale (17-8, 2.90 ERA) is one of the AL’s top contenders to capture the Cy Young award in his first season with Boston. The slender southpaw led the AL in strikeouts (308) and innings pitched (214.1), while finishing second in ERA and WHIP as will get the ball in the series opener. Sale’s numbers on the road compared to home were similar, even though he made 19 starts away from Fenway and only 13 home starts. The former Chicago fireballer won 10 decisions on the highway, while Boston riding an 11-4 run in his past 15 road starts. Sale didn’t face the Astros this season, but beat Houston twice last season as a member of the White Sox.
Fellow southpaw Drew Pomeranz (17-6, 3.32 ERA) is slated to start Game 2 in Houston as he set a career-high in victories with 17. Pomeranz has jumped last season’s Cy Young winner Rick Porcello and David Price for the number two spot in the Boston rotation as the Sox posted a solid 22-10 mark in his 32 starts. Boston compiled an impressive 7-1 record in Pomeranz's eight starts as a road underdog, including a 2-1 victory at Minute Maid Park as a +115 ‘dog in mid-June.
Houston (101-61) broke the 100-win barrier for only the second time in franchise history (1998) as the Astros stormed out to a 60-29 record by the All-Star break. Although Houston struggled in August and was displaced temporarily due to Hurricane Harvey, the Astros turned it on late by winning 21 of their final 29 games, including taking three of four from the Red Sox at Fenway Park in the last series of the season.
The Astros made one of the biggest splashes late in the season by acquiring former MVP and Cy Young winner Justin Verlander from the Tigers. Verlander (15-8, 3.36 ERA) has been perfect on the mound since moving to Houston in September by going 5-0 in five starts, while allowing only four earned runs in 34 innings of work. Verlander picked up a pair of no-decisions against the Red Sox this season as a member of the Tigers, but scattered three hits and allowed one run in seven innings of a 2-1 win at Comerica Park in April opposite Sale.
Dallas Keuchel (14-5, 2.90 ERA) missed nearly two months with a neck injury, as the 2015 Cy Young winner had his ups and downs in the second half of the season. Keuchel was unbeaten in his first 12 starts of the season, but the Astros put together a 3-4 record in his final seven outings. The left-hander posted three consecutive quality starts to finish the campaign, while allowing a total of four earned runs in that stretch. Keuchel won both his playoff starts in 2015, including as a -170 home favorite over the Royals in the ALDS, 4-2.
2017 Head-to-Head Matchups (Cleveland 5-2, Over 3-3-1)
Cleveland vs. New York (Progressive Field)
Aug. 3 - Indians 5 Yankees 1 (Under 8 )
Aug. 4 - Indians 7 Yankees 2 (Push 9)
Aug. 5 - Yankees 2 Indians 1 (Under 8.5)
Aug. 6 - Yankees 8 Indians 1 (Over 7.5)
New York vs. Cleveland (Yankee Stadium)
Aug. 28 - Indians 6 Yankees 2 (Over 6.5)
Aug. 30 - Indians 2 Yankees 1 (Under 8.5)
Aug. 30 - Indians 9 Yankees 4 (Over 9)
The Yankees and Indians haven’t hooked up in the playoffs since 2007 as New York looks to eliminate the defending AL Champions. The Bronx Bombers dug themselves a 3-0 hole against the Twins in Tuesday’s Wild Card matchup, but the Yankees stormed back by knocking out Minnesota, 8-4 as -255 favorites.
New York (91-71) hung with Boston all season long inside the AL East, while winning 16 of their final 22 regular season contests. The Yankees never showcased a true ace of their pitching staff, but turned to right-hander Luis Severino in the winner-take-all Wild Card game. Severino (14-6, 2.98 ERA) recorded only one out and allowed three earned runs, but was bailed out when the Yankees tied the game in the bottom of the first. Severino will look to regroup when he takes the mound in this series, as the right-hander split a pair of starts against Cleveland, including dominating the Indians in an 8-1 rout at Progressive Field in August by scattering two hits in 6.2 innings, while striking out nine.
Mid-season pickup Sonny Gray (10-12, 3.54 ERA) hasn’t had much luck in pinstripes by going 4-7 with New York, including a 2-4 mark at home. Gray faced the Indians in his Yankees’ debut on August 3 as he lost, 5-1 as a +170 underdog, giving up four runs (two earned) in six innings of work. Masahiro Tanaka (13-12, 4.74 ERA) was knocked around in his first two starts of the season, but rebounded with five straight wins, while concluding the regular season with a 15-strikeout performance in seven scoreless innings of a 4-0 triumph over the Blue Jays.
Cleveland (102-60) tries to defend its pennant and win the franchise’s first World Series title since 1948. The Indians began the season at 31-31, but ran off six consecutive wins to start the momentum going in the right direction. The Tribe led the Twins by 2 ½ games in the AL Central at the All-Star break, but went backwards by dropping five of six contests at Oakland and San Francisco to start the second half. Terry Francona’s squad won nine straight games to regain control of the division, while breaking the AL record by putting together a 22-game winning streak from late August through mid-September.
Staff ace Corey Kluber (18-4, 2.25 ERA) is the AL front-runner to capture his second Cy Young award in four seasons, but won’t take the mound until Game 2 of the series. Kluber closed the season by allowing two earned runs or less in 11 of his last 12 starts, while the Indians won 12 of his final 14 outings. The right-hander dominated the Yankees twice by yielding three earned runs in 17 innings of work, while striking out 18 batters in two victories. In last season’s playoffs, Kluber put together a 4-1 mark in six starts, while not allowing a run in three outings as a home favorite.
Trevor Bauer (17-9, 4.19 ERA) established a career-high in victories for Cleveland, as he will take the ball in the series opener. Bauer’s wake-up call came in a 7-3 defeat at Oakland on July 16 in which he recorded two outs and gave up four earned runs. Since that loss, the Indians own a 10-3 record in his last 13 starts, including two wins over the Yankees. Bauer made four postseason starts for Cleveland last season, but failed to pitch past the fifth inning each time, while each appearance came as an underdog.
MLB Betting Analysis & Tips
By Allen Moody
Bangthebook.com
Boston at Houston: Justin Verlander got a new lease on life when he was traded from the Tigers to the Astros and it’s showed on the mound, where he’s looked like a Cy Young Award winner. Houston was 5-0 in his starts and allowed just four runs in those starts. The Astros actually had a better record on the road than they did at home this season and were a losing proposition against left-handed starters. Chris Sale tailed off a bit at the end of the season, as the Red Sox allowed nine or more runs in four of his 11 last starts. His last seven starts have seen him allow 13, 0, 9, 0, 6, 0, 9 runs. Sale didn’t face the Astros this season, while Verlander allowed three earned runs in 12 innings against Boston. The Astros opened -124 and were bet up to -134 with a total of 7-ver (-115). I made the Astros -118 and would be inclined to take a stab on the road underdog primarily due to the price on the game.
New York at Cleveland: The Indians and Trevor Bauer are -130 over the Yankees and Sonny Gray. In a bit of a surprise, the Indians have been attracting nearly three-fourths of the wagers in the game, which is something you don’t see against a New York Yankee team very often. But Cleveland’s winning streak and New York’s game on Monday have bettors on the side of the home team. Gray rebounded from arm problems with a decent year. He was average for the Yankees, but New York doesn’t need a pitcher to dominate with the offense they have, as average will normally get the job done. Bauer came on down the stretch and was very good from the end of July through the end of the season. He still allows a few more base runners than you like to see, but was able to pitch around that the majority of the time. The Yankees get a slight nod in overall offense, but that’s about the only edge they have and it’s not all that large to begin with. The Indians get the nod in the other departments. I made Cleveland -141 and believe they’re the right side in this spot at a reasonable number.