MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, September 28th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Reds @ Brewers
Romano is 1-2, 3.57 in his last four starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Reds are 3-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-8-3
Brewers won last five Suter starts (1-0, 3.38), last three of which stayed under. Milwaukee is 6-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-3-2
Reds lost seven of their last eight games; under is 9-4 in their last 13 games. Milwaukee lost four of last six games (under 4-1-1). Brewers are 2.5 games out in the Wild Card race.
Pirates @ Nationals
Nova is 0-4, 7.77 in his last five starts, last three of which stayed under. Pirates are 4-13 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-15-3
Strasburg is 4-0, 1.06 in his last five starts; under is 7-1-1 in his last nine. Washington is 9-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-10-4
Pirates won their last four games; under is 12-2 in their last 14 road games. Pittsburgh is 2-7 in last nine road series openers. Washington is 6-4 in its last ten games; under is 10-5-2 in their last 17 games. Nationals are 7-9 in last 16 home series openers.
Braves @ Marlins
Teheran is 4-1, 2.31 in his last six starts; under is 7-1-2 in his last ten. Braves are 9-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-12-5
Peters is 0-2, 6.31 in five starts this year (over 4-1). Miami lost both his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-2
Braves lost four of last five games; under is 6-1 in their last seven. Atlanta is 2-6 in last eight road series openers. Marlins lost three of last four games (under 3-1); they’re 11-6 in last 17 home series openers.
Cubs @ Cardinals
Hendricks is 3-1, 2.48 in his last six starts, last five of which stayed under total. Cubs are 4-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-6-5
Lynn is 1-1, 13.97 in his last three starts; under is 12-4 in his last 16. St Louis is 7-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-15-2
Cubs won 12 of last 15 games; under is 7-3-1 in their last 11. St Louis won six of last nine home games; under is 7-3 in their last ten.
American League
Rays @ New York
Faria is making his first start since August 16; he is 0-3, 5.06 in his last four starts. Under is 6-1-1 in his last eight. Rays are 5-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-4-2
Gray is 2-2, 3.42 in his last four starts (under 8-2). New York is 2-2 in his home starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 4-5-1
Tampa Bay is 4-8 in its last 12 games; three of their last five games went over. New York won 11 of last 14 games; under is 6-3-1 in their last ten.
Twins @ Indians
Twins clinched playoff berth last night; not sure how long Santana goes here. Santana is 1-1, 2.41 in his last three starts. Twins are 10-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 17-8-7
Carrasco is 5-0, 1.52 in his last six starts; over is 6-2 in his last eight. Indians are 10-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 22-7-2
Twins won five of their last six games; over is 5-1-1 in their last seven games- they clinched a playoff spot last night. Cleveland is 30-3 in its last 33 games; under is 11-4 in their last 15 home games.
Astros @ Red Sox
Peacock is 3-0, 2.35 in his last four starts (under 3-1). Astros are 8-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-4-2
Rodriguez is 2-1, 2.13 in his last four starts; under is 9-1 in his last ten. Boston is 8-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-12
Houston won 11 of its last 13 games; under is 6-4 in their last ten. Boston won 10 of last 13 games; over is 5-1 in their last six home games.
A’s @ Rangers
Manaea is 2-2, 5.49 in his last four starts (under 3-1). A’s are 6-9 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-13-5
Gonzalez is 1-2, 7.16 in four starts for Texas (over 2-2). Texas lost his only home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-2
A’s won 8 of last 10 games; over is 9-5 in their last 14 road games. Oakland is 2-6 in last eight road series openers. Texas lost its last six games; under is 7-4 in their last 11. Rangers are 6-1 in last seven home series openers.
Angels @ White Sox
Angels got eliminated last night; no idea who pitches here. Likely a bullpen game.
Covey is 0-4, 8.15 in his last four starts (over 5-4-3). Chicago is 2-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-8-1
Angels lost eight of their last ten games; seven of their last ten road games stayed under- they are now eliminated from playoff contention. Chicago won five of last seven games; over is 7-2-1 in their last ten home games.
Tigers @ Royals
Norris is 0-4, 9.82 in his last four starts; over is 4-1-1 in his last six. Tigers are 5-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-9-2
Duffy is 2-1, 3.18 in his last three starts; under is 7-4 in his last 11. Royals are 6-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-10-4
Detroit lost its last nine games; over is 9-3-1 in their last 13. Royals won three of last four home games; under is 9-6 in their last 15.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Cin-Mil: Romano 6-9; Suter 8-5
Pitt-Wsh: Nova 13-17; Strasburg 21-6
Atl-Mia: Teheran 15-16; Peters 1-4
Chi-StL: Hendricks 11-12; Lynn 14-18
American League
Min-Clev: Santana 19-13; Carrasco 23-8
TB-NY: Faria 8-5; Gray 4-6
Hst-Bos: Peacock 14-6; Rodriguez 13-10
A’s-Tex: Manaea 13-15; Gonzalez 2-2
LAA-Chi: unknown Covey 3-8
Det-KC: Norris 7-10; Duffy 11-12
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning
National League
Cin-Mil: Romano 6-15; Suter 1-13
Pitt-Wsh: Nova 11-30; Strasburg 4-27
Atl-Mia: Teheran 10-31; Peters 2-5
Chi-StL: Hendricks 8-23; Lynn 10-32
American League
Min-Clev: Santana 8-32; Carrasco 5-31
TB-NY: Faria 2-13; Gray 2-10
Hst-Bos: Peacock 2-20; Rodriguez 6-23
A’s-Tex: Manaea 9-28; Gonzalez 1-4
LAA-Chi: unknown Covey 7-11
Det-KC: Norris 3-17; Duffy 6-23
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 84-57 AL, favorites -$280
AL @ NL– 75-72 NL, favorites +$396
Total: 156-131 AL, favorites +$116
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 71-68-4
AL @ NL: Over 75-65-8
Total: Over 146-133-12
Armadillosports,com
MLB Betting Picks & Tips
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
Cincinnati at Milwaukee (-155); Total: 9.5
The Brewers seem to be out of steam. They might win today, but the rigors of a 162-game season seem to have finally worn down one of the younger teams in the league. Milwaukee’s season is one of the biggest wins of the year because they established bullpen pieces, improved upon the rotation pieces that were in-house, and can now isolate some needs in free agency. They have the right minds in place to make another push next season, but I think the balloon has sprung a leak for this season.
They should win today, with Brent Suter up against Sal Romano, but the thing that has plagued the Brewers since May is that they simply haven’t been consistent enough on offense. Getting shut out by Homer Bailey in a must-win spot on Wednesday is a pretty good indicator of how things have gone. Studying the matchups is still important, but not as important as it was earlier in the season.
Honestly, I’m looking at the Reds today because they are playing free and easy. Guys are worried about personal accolades and about making an impression for next season. Playing under pressure over 155 games into the season is not easy for a team that hasn’t been through it, so I’m not surprised to see Milwaukee wilting a little bit.
I’d be willing to take a stab here at the Reds. They just snapped a long losing streak with yesterday’s win and feel like a better team to me than the 67-91 record would indicate. They just didn’t have enough starting pitching to get by with some guys like Anthony DeSclafani hurt and others put in the bullpen. That’s why they have had some prolonged skids. But, I think they’re moving in the right direction and they will be an over look for me next season.
Atlanta at Miami (-105); Total: 9
I’m a little bit surprised to see the market moving on the Marlins in this spot. I’ve been an ardent pessimist about Julio Teheran this season, but it seems like Dillon Peters has slammed into the wall, been pushed backwards, and slammed back into it again. It isn’t a workload concern, since his season has been marred by injury and he has only worked about 95 innings across four levels. Peters has allowed 13 runs on 15 hits over his last 7.2 innings of work. The advance scouting reports have gotten around and hitters have been taking some good swings. I guess you can make an argument that the Braves offense isn’t all that good, but neither is Milwaukee’s and they rocked him for eight runs on September 17.
When you get a guy like Julio Teheran, this is a pretty big start. Teheran went from a 3.21/3.69/4.13 slash last season to a 4.39/4.92/4.92 slash this season. Ending on a high note as he goes into an offseason where he’ll firmly be on the trade block is probably something that he does care about. Since August 25, Teheran owns a 2.08 ERA with a 3.26 FIP and a 4.65 xFIP, so he has made a conscious effort to finish the year strong. I think that will be the case again here.
The Marlins are entering an offseason of uncertainty with an ownership change. It was the one-year anniversary of Jose Fernandez’s death a couple days ago. I think they’re just ready to shut this thing down after Hurricane Irma and everything that came along with that.
Give me the Braves today. Sit and wait on it since the line is moving on Miami, but that’s how I’ll be looking to go.
Houston at Boston (-105); Total: 9
This is a fascinating series. Unless the Indians slip up this weekend against the White Sox, this is an ALDS preview. How much will these teams want to show? How much will these pitchers want to show? I don’t know if Eduardo Rodriguez will make the ALDS rotation. I don’t know if this is an audition. Will he use his full game plan? Brad Peacock will probably be a bullpen weapon for the Astros, so who knows what his plan will be?
I’m staying away from this entire series. Houston will probably give forth a strong effort because of the standings. I won’t be invested, though, because there’s a little bit of an ego factor in play here in terms of showing your opponent what you can do.
Oakland (-115) at Texas; Total: 10.5
Both pitchers have something on the line tonight at Globe Life Park. Sean Manaea has struggled down the stretch. Miguel Gonzalez is pitching for work next season. Some team without playoff aspirations will scoop him up as a mentor and innings eater, but he’ll still be looking to put his best foot forward in free agency.
The expectation here is obviously a high-scoring affair with a total of 10.5. It can be scary to play unders this weekend because hitters are just looking to pad their stats and attack the first good pitch. Still, I think we’re looking at a situation where that helps both pitchers. The deeper into counts hitters are able to go, the more likely a real mistake comes down the pike with these two pitchers and with most pitchers. I think we see a lot of aggressive swings here and I don’t think that is the right approach against either of these starters.
I’ll hold my nose and play the under.
Detroit at Kansas City (-195); Total: 8.5
The Royals won again yesterday. I don’t know what the Indians line will be. If we guess somewhere in the -300 range, a ML parlay of Indians -300 and Royals -195 pays about +100. I would be beyond shocked to see that lose. The Royals are making a push to finish .500 and Danny Duffy has thrown the ball pretty well of late. The Tigers are ready for this thing to be over. I think that’s a good bet today.
One late addition on an unlined game. The White Sox may be worth a look tonight. The Angels no longer have playoff aspirations since the Twins are in. The White Sox send out Dylan Covey, who is 0-7 in his 11 starts and six relief outings. You have to think that his teammates want to get him that first Major League win to salvage something out of his rookie season. I don’t know what the line will be here with a bullpen day for Anaheim, but the White Sox certainly have an enormous motivation edge. They haven’t been playing all that bad lately.
MLB Line Drive
Covers.com
Double-Play Picks
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers (-155, 9.5)
The Reds and Brewers wrap up their three-game series this afternoon at Miller Park in Milwaukee. The teams have split the first two games and the Brewers' playoff hopes are clinging to the thinnest of threads.
Despite winning 6-0 last night, the Reds can't be trusted to play proper spoiler on the Rockies behalf. Prior to their win on Wednesday they had lost seven baseball games in a row and they will send rookie right-hander Sal Romano to the mound today.
Romano's last start was a disappointing five earned runs allowed over four innings of work in a 5-4 loss at home against the Red Sox. And in his last start against the Brewers (Aug 13 at Miller Park) he allowed seven runs over five innings of work in an eventual 7-4 loss.
The Brewers will counter with lefty Brent Suter. He has been very good, especially during the month of September where he has made five appearances (four starts and one relief) and owns an ERA of 1.56 and a WHIP of 1.2115. Dating back to August the Brewers have won Suter's last five starts overall.
Desperation is a great motivator in sports, and the Brewers are certainly desperate today with the Rockies' magic number now down to two.
Pick: Brewers -155
Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins (-110, 9)
The Braves and Marlins close out their respective disappointing seasons with a four-game set beginning Thursday night in Miami.
Neither Atlanta nor Miami were able to take a step forward in the National League East like they hoped to this season, with the Marlins sitting at 74-84 on the season and 21 games behind the division leading Nationals, while the Braves are 71-87 and 24 games back.
The NL East rivals open this season-ending series with Julio Teheran taking the mound for the Braves, while the Marlins counter with Dillon Peters.
It has been an interesting year of interesting splits for the Braves’ Teheran, who is 11-12 with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP this season, but he hasn’t really enjoyed playing in the team’s new stadium, Sun Trust Park. However, Teheran has been excellent on the road, going 8-2 with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP.
Meanwhile, it hasn’t been the easiest transition to the big leagues for the Marlins’ rookie Peters. The young southpaw is 0-2 in the first five starts of his career, pitching to a 6.31 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP. He’s been even more roughed up in his last three outings, going 0-1 with a 9.88 ERA and a 2.27 WHIP while walking more batters than he has struck out.
The only thing to cheer for in Marlins games recently is whether or not Gancarlo Stanton will hit 60 dingers.
Pick: Braves -110
Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season To Date: 158-144-15
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Brad Peacock, Houston Astros (12-2, 2.98 ERA, $324)
Very slim pickings for our Streaking Starter section today. Julio Teheran would likely have claimed the award, but we used him above in our Double-Play Picks.
Instead of Teheran we will go with Houston's Brad Peacock. The veteran utility right-hander is having a tremendous season for the Astros at 12-2 with a 2.98 ERA and a WHIP of 1.20. Things have been even better for him on the road where he owns a personal win/loss record of 7-0 with an ERA of 2.83 and a WHIP of 1.14.
Peacock and the Astros are slight road underdogs at -102 at Fenway Park against Eduardo Rodriguez and the Red Sox.
Slumping: Edwin Jackson, Washington Nationals (5-6, 5.40 ERA, $-261)
As the Nationals begin to get their roster set up for their upcoming NLDS series against the Cubs, you can be pretty sure that Edwin Jackson will not be a part of their starting rotation.
A team win/loss of 5-7, an ERA of 5.40, and a WHIP of 1.45 in 12 starts with Washington is not very good. A team win/loss of 0-3, an ERA of 15.68, and a WHIP of 2.71 in his last three starts is, pretty much, as bad as it gets.
Jackson and the Nats are -145 home favorites against Ivan Nova and the Pirates today.
Thursday's Top Trends
* The Cleveland Indians are 30-3 in their last 33 overall. -260 today vs. Twins.
* The New York Yankees are 11-1 in their last 12 home games. -200 today vs. Rays.
* Under is 35-15-2 in Eduardo Rodriguez's last 52 starts overall. Astros/Red Sox Total: 9.
* The Detroit Tigers are 5-24 in their last 29 vs. American League Central. +182 today at Royals.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
Rain will not be a factor at any MLB ballpark without a roof today, but there will be wind. Here are the most notable breezes in the forecast for today:
Twins @ Indians (Total: 8.5) - 13-15 mile per hour wind blowing IN from left-center field.
Rays @ Yankees (Total: 8.5) - 13-15 mile per hour crosswind blowing from left field to right field.
Pirates @ Nationals (Total: 9) - 11-14 mile per hour wind blowing IN from left field.
Astros @ Red Sox (Total: 9) - 13-14 mile per hour wind blowing IN from left field.
Athletics @ Rangers (Total: 10.5) - 9-11 mile per hour wind blowing OUT to right field.
Astros, Red Sox clash in Boston
By: StatFox.com
The Astros and Red Sox will meet in a battle between two of the American League’s best teams on Thursday.
Houston has been on fire lately, as the team has now won three straight and five of its past six. The Astros most recently swept the Rangers in Arlington, and that came after a series victory over an Angels team that had absolutely everything to play for. The Red Sox, meanwhile, are coming off of a series loss against the Blue Jays. Boston is currently fighting for the top spot in the AL East with New York, so the team has a little work to do in this series. These teams met in a three-game series earlier in the year and the Sox came away with two wins in that set. They also happen to be 5-2 against the Astros at Fenway Park over the past three seasons, and six of those seven games have gone Over the total. The starters in this one will be RHP Brad Peacock (12-2, 2.98 ERA, 159 K) for the Astros and LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (6-3, 3.91 ERA, 148 K) for the Sox. One trend that favors Houston here is the fact that the team is 39-11 against the money line on the road when the line is -100 to -150 this season. Boston, meanwhile, is an impressive 35-14 against the money line after three or more consecutive home games on the year.
Brad Peacock will be on the mound for the Astros on Thursday and he has been one of the team’s best pitchers this season. The righty has allowed two or fewer earned runs in six straight starts heading into this game, which is a number that will certainly give an explosive Houston offense a chance to win. Peacock has not, however, faced an offense quite like Boston’s. He’ll need to be a little careful here, as the Sox have their fair share of guys that can hit for power. Peacock has given up a homer in three straight coming into this one, but he must do everything he can to end that streak here. On offense, the Astros will be hoping that guys like 2B Jose Altuve and SS Carlos Correa can come through at the plate. Altuve is 0-for-3 against Eduardo Rodriguez in his career, which is something to keep an eye on here. Altuve can hit almost everybody in the league, so it’s hard to believe that Rodriguez is his kryptonite. Look for him to figure him out here and come through with a couple of hits. Correa, meanwhile, is 2-for-2 against the lefty and it would not be shocking if he had a big day on Thursday.
The Red Sox are still playing for the top spot in the division and they have a reliable starter out there to win this game on Thursday. Rodriguez has been as good as anybody in the Boston rotation as of late, as the lefty has allowed just five earned runs in his past 25.1 innings on the mound. He has struck out six or more batters in each of those games and should be able to deliver here. Rodriguez has a 3.81 ERA at home this season, but his stuff is at its absolute best right now. On offense, one guy that Boston is hoping can keep it rolling now is DH Hanley Ramirez (.241 BA, 23 HR, 61 RBI). Ramirez has an RBI in three straight games and was 2-for-4 with a double and a homer against Toronto on Wednesday. It has been a miserable season for the slugger, but it’d be huge for the Red Sox if he can stay hot heading into the postseason.