MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, September 7th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Phillies @ Nationals
Nola is 1-3, 8.10 n his last four starts (over 3-1). He is 1-0, 3.27 n two starts vs Washington this season. Phils are 4-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-6-7
Roark is 2-1, 3.37 in his last three starts; under is 6-1 in their last seven. He is 0-0, 4.08 in three starts vs Philly this year. Washington is 5-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-10-2
Phillies are 8-7 in their last 15 games; over is 3-1 in their last four games. Philly is 9-15 in road series openers. Washington won four of its last five games; over is 5-1 in their last six home games. Nationals are 14-9 in home series openers.
Cubs @ Pirates
Lester is 1-1, 8.87 in his last five starts (over 4-1). Cubs are 6-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-10-6. Last time he faced the Pirates, they scored 10 runs in less than an inning against him (July 9).
Taillon is 2-0, 4.18 in his last six starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five home starts. He is 1-1, 3.75 vs Chicago this year. Pirates are 5-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-6-5
Cubs won seven of last ten games (under 7-3). Pittsburgh won four of their last five games; under is 6-2 in their last eight home games.
Reds @ Mets
Mahle is 0-1, 2.45 in two starts this year (under 2-0)- Reds scored 2 runs in those games. Cincy lost his only road start— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-1-1
Harvey is 0-1, 9.56 in his last four starts; over is 7-2-1 in his last ten. Mets are 3-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-7
Reds won five of last seven games; under is 3-1-1 in their last five games. Cincy is 4-1 in last five road series openers. Mets lost five of last seven games; over is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games. New York is 11-7 in last 18 home series openers.
Marlins @ Braves
Straily is 2-0, 4.76 in his last three starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. He is 2-1, 2.65 vs Atlanta this season. Miami is 6-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-9-4
Newcomb is 1-1, 4.35 in his last four starts; under is 4-1 in his last five starts. Atlanta is 2-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-10
Marlins lost nine of last 10 games; under is 5-2-1 in their last eight. Miami is 10-12 in road series openers. Atlanta played a DH yesterday; they’ve lost five of last seven games. Over is 4-1 in their last five games. Braves are 10-12 in home series openers.
Cardinals @ Padres
Lynn is 2-0, 3.00 in his last seven starts; under is 10-2 in his last 12. Cardinals are 6-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-12-2
Richard is 1-1, 3.90 in his last four starts; under is 4-2-1 in his last seven. San Diego is 6-8 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-14-2
Cardinals won six of last seven games; over is 7-5 in their last 12 games. San Diego lost its last three games; over is 4-2 in their last six games.
Rockies @ Dodgers
Gray is 2-2, 3.04 in his last four starts, last three of which stayed under. Colorado split his eight road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-6-1
Kershaw is 9-0, 1.68 in his last 10 starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. He is 3-1, 2.42 against the Rockies this season. Dodgers are 10-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 17-2-3
Colorado lost seven of their last ten games; under is 8-3 in their last 11 games. Rockies are 3-11 in last 14 road series openers. Dodgers lost 11 of their last 12 games; under is 5-1 in their last six home games- they’re 16-7 in home series openers.
American League
New York @ Baltimore
Gray is 2-4, 3.89 in six starts for NY (under 5-1). New York is 0-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-4
Gausman is 1-0, 0.00 (13.2 IP) in his last two starts; under is 7-1 in his last eight starts. He is 1-1, 8.84 in four starts vs NY this season. Orioles are 9-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-14-1
New York won four of last six games; over is 7-2 in their last nine road games. Baltimore won 10 of last 13 games; three of their last five games stayed under.
Indians @ White Sox
Kluber is 6-1, 1.86 in his last seven starts (under 5-2). He is 2-0, 2.95 in three starts against the White Sox this season. Cleveland is 8-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-10-2
Rodon is 1-1, 3.00 in his last seven starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. White Sox are 4-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-7-1
Indians won their last 14 games; under is 4-2 in his last six games. White Sox lost seven of last nine games; under is 10-2 in their last 12 home games.
Twins @ Royals
Gibson is 3-0, 1.37 in his last three starts; under is 8-5 in his last 13. He is 2-0, 3.31 in three starts vs KC this season. Twins are 8-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-12-1
Gaviglio is making his first start for the Royals; he was 0-4, 6.65 in his last four starts for Seattle. Under is 5-1-1 in his last seven starts.
Twins lost four of last six games; under is 6-3 in their last nine road games. Minnesota is 13-9 in road series openers. Royals won four of last six games (over 5-1). KC is 11-11 in home series openers.
Record with this pitcher starting
Phil-Wsh: Nola 11-12; Roark 15-10
Chi-Pitt: Lester 15-12; Taillon 11-10
Cin-NY: Mahle 0-2; Harvey 5-9
Mia-Atl: Straily 14-14; Newcomb 4-11
StL-SD: Lynn 13-15; Richard 11-17
Colo-LA: Gray 9-6; Kershaw 20-2
American League
NY-Balt: Gray 2-4 (8-8 ); Gausman 15-14
Clev-Chi: Kluber 16-8; Rodon 5-7
Minn-KC: Gibson 13-11; Gaviglio 0-0 (6-5)
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning
National League
Phil-Wsh: Nola 6-23; Roark 10-25
Chi-Pitt: Lester 9-27; Taillon 5-21
Cin-NY: Mahle 0-2; Harvey 7-14
Mia-Atl: Straily 6-28; Newcomb 4-15
StL-SD: Lynn 7-28; Richard 9-28
Colo-LA: Gray 4-15; Kershaw 4-22
American League
NY-Balt: Gray 2-4 (8-8 ); Gausman 15-14
Clev-Chi: Kluber 4-24; Rodon 4-12
Minn-KC: Gibson 8-24; Gaviglio 4-11
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 79-55 AL, favorites +$403
AL @ NL– 72-67 NL, favorites +$35
Total: 146-127 AL, favorites +$438
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 67-66-3
AL @ NL: Over 74-59-7
Total: Over 141-125-10
Armadillosports.com
MLB Betting Picks & Tips
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
Chicago (-135) at Pittsburgh; Total: 8
We start in the Steel City, where the Cubs and Pirates wrap up their series. The Pirates are still fighting to the end and the Cubs are still in search of their 2016 form. Yesterday’s 1-0 win was a good sign for Jose Quintana and the Cubs bullpen, but a bad sign for the offense. It could be another low-scoring affair tonight with Jon Lester on the mound against Jameson Taillon.
Lester has a 4.46 ERA with a 3.99 FIP and a 3.69 xFIP. His 65.8 percent LOB% is the lowest he has had since 2012. Normally, that’s the type of guy that the market would like to back, but the market has slightly slanted towards the home dog side in this one. Lester has 159 strikeouts in 153.1 innings of work and has solid peripherals mostly across the board, except in the home run department, where he is on pace to allow a career-high in dingers. The low LOB% is very uncharacteristic of Lester, who has not posted an ERA north of 4.00 since that 2012 year and he has only done it three times in his career.
Lester has allowed 17 runs on 22 hits over his last 12.2 innings of work. He hasn’t exactly faced world-beaters in terms of lineups either, with the Diamondbacks, who have poor season-long numbers against lefties, the Reds, and the Braves. Lester allowed three home runs last time out against the Braves in his first start since August 17. Normally guys coming back from injury or fresh off the DL are guys that I don’t want to back. Maybe the market agrees here.
Like Lester, Jameson Taillon shows some positive regression in the advanced metrics. He has a 4.50 ERA with a 3.50 FIP and a 3.87 xFIP. Taillon has been victimized by a .353 BABIP against and has a LOB% that is slightly below the league average at 71.1 percent. Taillon allowed 17 of his 56 earned runs in a two-start stretch from July 25 to August 1 that really shot his ERA through the roof. Since then, he has allowed 14 earned runs over his last six starts. He just worked six innings for the first time since August 11, so there’s hope that he has made some changes, but Taillon also has a 9/10 K/BB ratio over his last three outings.
I would like to think that Lester can right the ship and head into the playoffs on a high note, since he has an extensive track record. I’ll probably wait for this line to come down a little bit more and then play back on the Cubs.
Philadelphia at Washington (-170); Total: 8
I’ve been a big proponent of Tanner Roark throughout the season, but he shouldn’t be a -170 favorite against Aaron Nola. Nola has a 3.72 ERA with a 3.33 FIP and a 3.55 xFIP on the season. He’s struck out 148 in his 142.2 innings of work and had a stretch of 10 starts in which he didn’t allow more than two runs. Nola has allowed 19 runs over his last four starts, so he has regressed a little bit, but that can be attributed to some LOB% regression. He still has 23 strikeouts in those 23.1 innings of work, so the stuff still has good life. He’s only walked six. He’s given up four home runs. The BABIP and sequencing gods haven’t been on his side.
Roark has a 4.48 ERA with a 4.16 FIP and a 4.21 xFIP on the season. He has pretty good peripherals overall, but has a 66.9 percent LOB%. I’ve been waiting for Roark’s LOB% to turn in a better direction for a while this season, but it has not happened and he has burned up some bankroll as a result. I certainly wouldn’t spend -170 on him here. The gap between the Phillies and the Nationals is significant, but so is the gap between the starting pitchers.
I’ll be taking a shot on the Phillies and Nola at this price.
Cincinnati (-120) at New York; Total: 9
Sometimes the clues in a line tell you everything that you need to know. Tyler Mahle is making his third career MLB start. The right-hander allowed three runs on four hits in five innings in his debut and worked six shutout innings in his second start against the same Pirates team. Today, Mahle, with all of 11 innings under his belt, is favored on the road against the Mets.
Mahle had excellent minor league numbers in his 24 starts covering 144.1 innings with a low ERA and 138 strikeouts against just 30 walks. He only struck out three last time out, but he lost the nerves and showed the command that he had in the minor leagues.
Matt Harvey will be on the bump for the Mets. Harvey has a 5.97 ERA with a 6.23 FIP and a 5.01 xFIP in his 14 starts. This will be his second start back from the DL after allowing seven runs on eight hits against Houston on Saturday. Initially, the plan was Harvey to go on short rest, which would have been a borderline criminal offense by Terry Collins. Now he’s been pushed back to extra rest. Still, there’s no reason to back Harvey. The Reds did lose Billy Hamilton to a hand injury yesterday, but their lineup is still significantly better than a Mets lineup decimated by trades and injuries.
The Reds are the play today. The line says so. It’s not a trap. It’s the correct position from the oddsmakers and I wouldn’t be surprised if it rose.
Miami (-115) at Atlanta; Total: 9.5
The Marlins draw a Braves team that played a lot of baseball yesterday with a doubleheader against the Rangers. Normally, I would be all over the Marlins here, but it was a very somber mood as the team left friends and family to hit the road. Hurricane Irma has her sights set on the Miami area and it can be very hard for the players to be away during that sort of event.
Families and friends will be evacuating throughout the day, so the players have their minds elsewhere. Plus, the Marlins aren’t playing for anything, so baseball isn’t the distraction it would be in a pennant race or something. I won’t touch Miami at all in this weekend set. That’s not to say that I would take the Braves, since I’m simply speculating on how the Marlins players will feel and react.
It’s a pass game and a pass series for me.
St. Louis (-125) at San Diego; Total: 8.5
The Cardinals and the Padres square off on Thursday night. The market backed the Padres in last night’s 3-1 Cardinals win and drove the home team all the way up to -140 with Dinelson Lamet on the mound against rookie Jack Flaherty.
Today, it will be Lance Lynn, who has been a fade candidate for influential bettors most of the season, against Clayton Richard. To me, Lynn has kind of gotten an unfair rap all year long. He’s coming back from Tommy John and his command isn’t what it once was, but he’s had an ERA better than his XFIP in each of his last two seasons. He’s generally been a guy that has stranded a lot of runners. This season, he has been on the fortunate side of luck. I will admit that. Lynn has a .229 BABIP against and an 82.2 percent LOB%, so those are two metrics where you would expect some regression. With those outliers, he has a 2.99 ERA with a 4.72 FIP and a 4.67 xFIP. That’s why the market has been against him. I can’t blame them, but I don’t think enough context has been applied.
Clayton Richard has some signs of positive regression in his own right. He has a 4.94 ERA with a 4.41 FIP and a 3.84 xFIP. His .349 BABIP against and 20.5 percent HR/FB% are both major outliers. I have a lot more concerns than that, though. Richard has thrown 173 innings this season. He has only thrown 162.2 innings over the last four seasons combined, with a lost year in 2014 due to injury. It’s hard to see a pitcher with a workload that he hasn’t had since 2012 improving at this stage of the game. He has allowed 12 runs in his last 18.2 innings of work and has allowed four home runs after allowing just four home runs in his first seven starts out of the All-Star Break. That makes me wonder if his command is sagging from the workload.
My guess here is that the market will look at the advanced metrics and fade the Cardinals and Lynn. I’ll wait it out on this one and try to grab the Cardinals at a better price later. If the line moves against me, I will simply pass.
Rockies, Dodgers clash
By: StatFox.com
The Dodgers will be hoping to avoid a seven-game losing streak when they host the Rockies on Thursday.
The Rockies once seemed like an absolute lock to make it to the postseason, but they now only have a two-game lead over the Cardinals for the second wild card spot in the National League. The Brewers are also lurking, as Milwaukee is only 2.5 games back of that spot. If Colorado doesn’t start to win games at a higher clip then the team will be watching the postseason from home. Fortunately for the Rockies, they did just win two of a three-game set against the Giants last series. And while they are facing the league-best Dodgers in this next series, they are meeting them at the best possible time. Los Angeles has really struggled as of late, as the team has lost six straight and 11 of its past 12. While the Dodgers are not in danger of losing their playoff position, they definitely do want to get themselves going with a win. They don’t want to risk being ice-cold heading into the postseason, as that could be a recipe for disaster. The starters in this Thursday night game are going to be RHP Jon Gray (6-4, 4.26 ERA, 79 K) for Colorado and LHP Clayton Kershaw (16-2, 1.95 ERA, 175 K) for Los Angeles. This could be a fun matchup to watch on the mound.
Jon Gray was one of Colorado’s most highly touted pitching prospects over the past decade and the righty has been very good since getting his chance with the team. This has been a career year for Gray, who has a lower ERA than any of the past three seasons and is also over .500 right now. He will, however, need to find a way to shut down a very good Dodgers lineup in this one. Fortunately for Gray, he did pitch very well in his only meeting with the team this season. Gray faced the Dodgers on Apr. 8 and pitched 5.1 innings of one-run ball. While the Rockies would love for him to pitch deeper into this game, they’re definitely not going to complain if he turns in another effort like that one. On offense, a bunch of Rockies have had success against Kershaw and the team will need those guys to step it up here too. Those players to keep an eye on are 3B Nolan Arenado and OF Gerardo Parra. The two of them are a combined 26-for-81 with six doubles, three homers, and six RBI against the lefty. That is nothing to sneeze at and they’ll both do everything they can to get to him on Thursday.
Clayton Kershaw has missed some time this year, but he still probably deserves to be the NL Cy Young Award winner. There are obviously pitchers that have had success over the course of the entire season, but nobody has been as good as Kershaw. The lefty’s ERA is under 2.00 for the fourth time in five years and his 16-2 record speaks for itself. He is pitching absolutely brilliantly and will now do what he can to shut down the Rockies. When he faced Colorado on Jun. 24, Kershaw allowed no earned runs in six innings of work. This is a lineup that has given him some trouble in the past, but that was a good outing for him and he’ll try to be even better in this time out. As for the Dodgers’ offense, the team will be hoping for a spark from somebody like 1B Cody Bellinger in this one. Bellinger has a monstrous power swing and is a great matchup against a guy like Jon Gray here. It would not be surprising at all if he connected for a homer on Thursday.
MLB Line Drive
Covers.com
Double-Play Picks
Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets (+100, 9)
The Reds and Mets begin a four-game set Thursday night in Queens and they enter the series with very similar records. Which is not a good thing for the Metropolitans.
New York entered the year as a potential World Series contender, but injuries and inconsistencies, especially to the starting rotation, has derailed the Mets season as they sit at 60-79, one game worse than the visiting Reds.
One of the oft injured and inconsistent pitchers is Matt Harvey, who gets the call for tonight’s opener.
Harvey has had two lengthy DL stints this season and when he has pitched, the right-hander has been a shell of his former self. Harvey is 4-4 in 14 starts in 2017, with a 5.97 ERA and a career worst 1.63 strikeout to walk ratio.
In his first start since returning from the DL he managed to get through just two innings, allowing seven earned runs on eight hits. In his last four starts overall, he is 0-1 with a 13.91 ERA and a 2.73 WHIP. Ouch.
Harvey faces a Reds lineup that is scoring 5.5 runs per game in their last three series (including one against the Mets) and ranks ninth in the MLB in OPS.
Additionally, Over is 6-0-1 in Harvey’s last 7 home starts and is 9-4-1 in the last 14 meetings between these NL foes.
Oh, they’re also the two best Over teams in baseball.
Pick: Over 9
Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers (-300, 6.5)
The Rockies and Dodgers open a four-game weekend series tonight in Los Angeles. The Rockies come to town off a series win against the lowly San Francisco Giants and the Dodgers are the talk of baseball...now losers of 11 of their last 12 games.
The Dodgers must be thrilled to be rid of the Diamondbacks for the rest of the regular season. Their schedule is easy down the stretch and they will be looking to start a streak in the other direction starting today with Clayton Kershaw on the mound.
The Dodgers have beaten the Rockies seven times this season and all seven of those victories were by two or more runs to cover the -1.5 runline - three of those runline victories were with Kershaw on the hill. In those last three starts against the Rockies, Kershaw owns an ERA of 1.80 and a WHIP of 0.95.
Get ready for these numbers, they are insane!
In six of Clayton Kershaw's last seven starts he has allowed 0 earned runs. In those seven outings (44 innings) he has pitched to an ERA of 0.41 and a WHIP of 0.7045.
Nothing against Rockies' starter John Gray. He's been just O.K. on the road this season with a team win/loss of 4-5 and and ERA of 4.96. Gray will have to be much more than "O.K." tonight in order to hold down the sleeping Dodgers.
Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-130)
Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season To Date: 135-127-13
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians (14-4, 2.56 ERA, $2)
Corey Kluber is so good. What else is there to say about him?
In his last nine starts, he has a record of 7-1 (8-1 team win/loss), thrown 68 innings allowing only 16 runs (2.12 ERA), has 87 strikeouts, and only nine walks.
The Indians ace has been instrumental in Cleveland’s domination of the American League Central. The Tribe has won 12 of Kluber’s last 15 starts within the division.
Kluber and the Indians are massive -264 road chalk today against Carlos Rodon and the White Sox.
Slumping: Clayton Richard, San Diego Padres (6-13, 4.94 ERA, $-278)
There are a couple of pitchers getting their second starts after spending time on the DL that struggled mightily in their first games back, Matt Harvey and Jon Lester. But the slumping section isn’t about a bad start because of injuries, it’s about sustained stretches of failure at your profession.
Enter Clayton Richard.
The 33-year-old has struggled all season with a 6-13 record and 4.94 ERA in 28 starts. There’s no reason to think things will improve either, he only has one win since June 13th. That’s 14 starts and only one win for a major league pitcher. Gross.
Richard and the Padres are +114 home pups against the Cardinals and Lance Lynn tonight.
Thursday's Top Trends
* Cubs are 12-2 in Jon Lester’s last 14 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. -130 today @ PIT.
* Under is 10-2 in Lance Lynn’s last 12 starts overall. STL/SD Total: 8.5.
* Rockies are 1-7 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. +265 @ LAD.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
Weather is a primary talking point in the sports world with Hurricane Irma making its way to Florida. Stay tuned on that front.
As for today at the ballpark, it’s the calm before the storm and looks to be a dry day across Major League Baseball.
There is an 11-13 mile per hour wind expected to be blowing out to right field this afternoon at Camden Yards in Baltimore where the Orioles will host the Yankees. The total is currently set at 8.5.
There is also a stiff breeze (12-15 miles per hour) blowing out to right field at Citi Field in Queens where the Mets will welcome the Reds to town. The total is at 9.