MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Tuesday, April 11th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Braves @ Marlins
Colon allowed one run in six IP (80 PT) in his first ’17 start, in New York.
Straily allowed five runs in 3.1 IP (67 PT) in his first ’17 start, in Washington.
Atlanta lost its last four games, all of which went over the total. Miami won three of its last four games; this is their home opener. Over is 3-1-1 in their last five games.
Cardinals @ Nationals
Lynn allowed two runs in 5.1 IP in his first ’17 start, a 6-4 loss to the Cubs.
Gonzalez blanked Miami for six innings (90 PT) in his first ’17 start, a game Washington later lost in extra innings.
Cardinals lost five of its last six games; over is 3-1-1 in their last five games. Washington lost three of its last five games; over is 3-1 in their last four games.
Mets @ Phillies
Harvey allowed two runs in 6.2 IP (77 PT) in his first ’17 start, a win over Atlanta.
Buchholz allowed four runs in five IP (77 PT) in his first ’17 start, at Cincinnati.
Mets are 4-3 in their first seven games; over is 3-1-1 in their last five games. Philly are 3-4 in their first seven games; three of their last five games went over.
Reds @ Pirates
Davis allowed four runs in three IP (74 PT) in his first MLB start.
Taillon shut Boston out for seven innings (95 PT) at Fenway in his first ’17 start.
Cincinnati won five of its last six games; over is 3-2-2 in their games. Pirates won three of their las four games; they’re 3-1 at home.
Padres @ Rockies
Weaver allowed four runs in five IP (82 PT) in his first ’17 start, at Dodger Stadium.
Senzatela shut Milwaukee out for five innings (93 PT) in his first MLB start last week.
San Diego won three of its last four games; under is 4-3 in their last seven. Colorado is off to a 5-3 start; five of their last six games stayed under.
Diamondbacks @ Giants
Ray allowed three runs in 5.2 IP (99 PT) in his first ’17 start, against the Giants.
Samardzija allowed six runs in 5.1 IP (90 PT) in his first ’17 start, at Arizona.
Arizona won five of its last six games; over is 6-2 in their games this season. San Francisco lost four of its last six games; over is 6-2 in their games- they won their home opener yesterday.
American League
Twins @ Tigers
Santiago allowed one run in five IP (88 PT) vs Kansas City in his first ’17 start, a 9-7 win.
Boyd allowed five runs in 2.1 IP (80 PT) in his first ’17 start, an 11-2 loss in Chicago.
Minnesota won five of its first six games; their last four games stayed under. Detroit won four of its first six games (over 4-2).
White Sox @ Indians
Shields allowed one run in 5.1 IP (104 PT) in his first ’17 start, an 11-2 win over Detroit.
Carrasco allowed two runs in 5.2 I{ (78 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 4-3 win at Texas.
White Sox are 2-3 in their first five games; their last three games stayed under. Indians lost their last three games, all on road. Four of their six games went over total.
Orioles @ Red Sox
Bundy allowed one run in seven IP (99 PT) in a 3-1 win over Toronto last week.
Pomeranz was 1-3, 5.28 in his last six starts LY; his last eight starts stayed under total.
Orioles won four of their first five games, all at home- their last three games went over. Boston lost three of last four games; under is 4-2 in their last six games.
Rangers @ Angels
Hamels allowed four runs in six IP (91 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 9-6 loss to Cleveland.
Skaggs allowed five runs in 5.1 IP (89 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 5-1 loss in Oakland.
Texas started season with a 2-4 homestead (over 3-3). Angels won five of their last six games; under is 4-3 in their first seven games.
Astros @ Mariners
Musgrove allowed two runs in five IP (84 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 4-2 loss to Seattle.
Miranda allowed two runs in five IP (81 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 4-2 win in Houston.
Mariners lost six of first eight games, but won home opener yesterday;. under is 6-2 in their games. Houston lost four of its last five games; under is 5-2 in its games this season.
Interleague
Brewers @ Blue Jays
Peralta shut Colorado out for five innings (90 PT) in his first ’17 start.
Happ allowed three runs in seven IP (89 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 3-1 loss in Baltimore.
Brewers started season with a 2-5 homestand (over 4-3). Toronto lost five of its first six games (under 4-2).
Record with this pitcher starting:
National League
Atl-Mia: Colon 1-0; Straily 0-1
StL-Wsh: Lynn 0-1; Gonzalez 0-1
NY-Phil: Harvey 1-0; Buchholz 0-1
Cin-Pitt: Davis 0-1; Taillon 0-1
SD-Colo: Weaver 0-1; Senzatela 1-0
Ariz-SF: Ray 1-0; Samardzija 0-1
American League
Min-Det: Santiago 1-0; Boyd 0-1
Chi-Clev: Shields 1-0; Carrasco 1-0
Balt-Bos: Bundy 1-0; Pomeranz 0-0
Tex-LA: Hamels 0-1; Skaggs 0-1
Hst-Sea: Musgrove 0-1; Miranda 1-0
Interleague
Mil-Tor: Peralta 1-0; Happ 0-1
Armadillosports.com
MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Milwaukee Brewers at Toronto Blue Jays
One team comes home and the other hits the road as the Toronto Blue Jays and Milwaukee Brewers meet in the first of a two-game series at the Rogers Centre north of the border. According to current betting odds the Blue Jays are -$185 to as high as -$220 home favorites.
Toronto will trot out J.A. Happ who was tagged with a loss in his opening start at Baltimore going 7 innings of 5 hit 3 run ball. Milwaukee counters with Wily Peralta off a 5 inning 3 hit no run win vs Colorado in his first trip to the mound.
As always a higher price on a game is cause to ratchet up the tension for a sports handicapper. Best to consider a run line (-1.5) at Sports Interaction
The fact this is the first game of a home series has been a solid proposition for John Gibbons' squad. In the past ten occasions the result has been 8 wins, 2 losses. Matching that, the Blue Jays have shown a habit of coming out on the right side of the score board in home games vs the National League posting a 17-8 record.
The most compelling numbers in Blue Jays' favor are the figures compiled by Happ. Blue Jays have a 12-3 stretch as chalk in Happ's starts in front of the home audience and the team has a 9-3 record with the southpaw following a team loss the previous effort. As always best of luck but above all enjoy the game.
Orioles face Red Sox
By: StatFox.com
The Red Sox will be hoping to avoid a fourth loss in five games when they host the Orioles on Tuesday.
The Orioles are off to a fantastic start to the season, as they are 4-1 and should really be 5-0. Baltimore led New York late into Sunday’s meeting between the two teams, but the Orioles’ bullpen fell apart and allowed the Yankees to run away with it. The Red Sox, meanwhile, are coming off of a 2-1 loss to the Tigers in Detroit. Boston lost three of four against Detroit and will be hoping to get going with a win in this series opener on Tuesday. The starters for this meeting between division foes are set to be RHP Dylan Bundy (1-0, 1.29 ERA, 8 K) for Baltimore and LHP Drew Pomeranz (11-12, 3.32 ERA, 186 K in 2016) for Boston. Bundy is coming off of a very good season debut, as he struck out eight in a win over the Jays. Pomeranz, meanwhile, has not yet pitched this season. He was dealing with an injury, but he is expected to be at 100% for this one. It’s possible he has a strict pitch limit, but that is only because the Sox will want to be careful with his arm. They have a lot riding on the lefty after trading one of their top prospects for him a year ago. One interesting trend when looking at this game is the fact that Baltimore is 84-64 against the money line when playing on grass fields since last year. That should bode well for the Orioles, who are already facing a Sox team that could be without OF Jackie Bradley Jr. (Knee) and 1B Hanley Ramirez (Illness) on Tuesday. Both guys are questionable for Boston.
If there are two guys on Baltimore that will be looking forward to Tuesday’s game then those would be C Welington Castillo (.286 BA, 0 HR, 1 RBI) and SS J.J. Hardy (.125 BA, 0 HR, 1 RBI). Castillo and Hardy are far from being the best hitters in this lineup, but both guys have gotten to Pomeranz in their careers. They are a combined 3-for-6 against the lefty and both of them have homered off of him as well. If they can provide some production at the plate on Tuesday then it’s hard to imagine Baltimore losing. A large part of that is because both OF Mark Trumbo (.263 BA, 1 HR, 5 RBI) and 3B Manny Machado (.235 BA, 1 HR, 4 RBI) should be able to hit Pomeranz also. Dylan Bundy will, however, have his work cut out for him in this one. The Red Sox have a very dangerous lineup, so Bundy will need to make sure he is on with his pitch location. He has all of the ability in the world, but he can struggle with his control. Bundy will not want to be walking guys in this one, and he also won’t want to force pitches over the plate when behind in counts.
Drew Pomeranz was dealing with an injured forearm and that caused his first start to be pushed back a little. He is healthy now and will be hoping to get his season started on the right foot here. Pomeranz was excellent with the Padres last season, but he was just 3-5 with a 4.59 ERA after the Red Sox acquired him midseason. He’ll definitely look to bounce back and turn into the pitcher he was in San Diego. Offensively, the guys to keep an eye on in this game are 2B Dustin Pedroia (.280 BA, 0 HR, 1 RBI) and OF Mookie Betts (.100 BA, 0 HR, 0 RBI). The two of them are a combined 9-for-20 with two homers and five RBI against Bundy in their careers. Betts has really been slumping thus far, so this matchup could be exactly what he needs. We all saw what he was able to do last season, so it’s only a matter of time before he turns it on offensively. Another guy that could do some damage here is C Sandy Leon (.368 BA, 1 HR, 5 RBI). Leon has been the team’s best hitter thus far, and he also happens to be 2-for-5 with a homer and two RBI against Bundy.
Tuesday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Angels (5-2) vs. Rangers
Los Angeles pulled out a three-game sweep of Seattle in the most dramatic of ways by erasing a six-run ninth inning deficit in Sunday’s 10-9 triumph. The Halos have won five of six games since losing the opener at Oakland, while scoring at least five runs in each of their five victories.
Tyler Skaggs takes the mound tonight in the start of a three-game series with the Rangers. Skaggs was roughed up by Oakland in his last start by allowing five earned runs in 5.1 innings of a 5-1 defeat on April 6. The southpaw was winless in four home outings in 2016, including in a 2-1 defeat to Texas last September in spite of tossing six scoreless innings.
Coldest team: Blue Jays (1-5) vs. Brewers
Toronto finally plays its home opener after dropping five of six games to Baltimore and Tampa Bay. The Jays, a playoff team the last two seasons, are hitting .199 as a club and have plated two runs or fewer in four of five losses. The good, third baseman Josh Donaldson is batting .348 through the first six contests. The bad, shortstop Troy Tulowitzki has racked up three hits in 24 at-bats, while catcher Russell Martin is hitless in 14 plate appearances.
Twenty-game winner from last season J.A. Happ looks to bounce back after losing his season debut at Baltimore, 3-1, in spite of striking out nine batters in seven innings of work. Toronto faces a Milwaukee squad that has stumbled to a 2-5 record out of the gate, while allowing at least six runs in four of its defeats.
Hottest pitcher: Dylan Bundy, Orioles (1-0, 1.29 ERA)
Baltimore has jumped out to an impressive 4-1 start as Bundy is responsible for one of those victories. The right-hander yielded four hits and one earned run in seven innings of a 3-1 home win over the Blue Jays last Wednesday. Bundy won 10 games last season for Baltimore, but didn’t have much luck against tonight’s opponent as the Orioles posted a 1-2 record in his three starts against the Red Sox. The 24-year old allowed 13 earned runs in 14.2 innings of work against Boston, but did pick up an underdog victory at Fenway Park last September.
Coldest pitcher: Dan Straily, Marlins (0-1, 13.50 ERA)
Miami heads back to Marlins Park for its home opener after splitting its first six contests to the Nationals and Mets. Straily was the only Marlins’ starter not to last until at least the fifth inning as the right-hander didn’t make it out of the fourth inning of a 6-4 setback at Washington last Wednesday. The former Reds’ hurler was roughed up by the Braves last season in a 7-2 loss at Turner Field, allowing six earned runs in 6.1 innings. Atlanta dominated Miami in 2016 at Marlins Park by posting a solid 6-2 ledger.
Biggest OVER streak: Braves (4-0 last four)
Sticking with Atlanta, the Braves’ pitching has not helped their cause early on by allowing six runs in four defeats and giving up five runs in another loss. Starting pitcher has been decent for Atlanta through the first two series by owning a 2.62 ERA, but the bullpen has imploded at the wrong time by posting a 5.79 ERA. The OVER streak may be in jeopardy with Bartolo Colon taking the mound, who scattered two hits and one earned run in six innings in a 3-1 victory over his former team, the Mets last Wednesday.
Biggest UNDER streak: White Sox (3-0 last three)
Chicago’s offense has seen its ups and downs through the first two series by failing to score at least four runs in consecutive games. Yes, the White Sox have posted 11 and six-run efforts in their two wins, but have also been limited to three runs or fewer in their three defeats. The White Sox head to Cleveland this afternoon to face an Indians’ squad that totaled seven runs in its three-game sweep at the hands of the Diamondbacks this past weekend. James Shields heads to the mound for Chicago today as the Sox eclipsed the OVER in six of his eight road outings last season, including an OVER in a 13-2 drubbing at Progressive Field.
Matchup to watch: Diamondbacks at Giants
Arizona will look to be a threat to San Francisco and Los Angeles inside the NL West this season as the D-backs have jumped out to a 6-2 mark. The D-backs suffered their second loss of the season on Monday in a 4-1 defeat to the Giants at AT&T Park as Matt Moore shut down Arizona by allowing three hits in eight innings of work for San Francisco. However, the Giants lost All-Star catcher Buster Posey early on after getting hit in the head by a pitch in the first inning. Posey is not expected to suit up in tonight’s contest as the Giants seek their third straight victory.
Southpaw Robbie Ray heads to the mound for Arizona as he picked up a no-decision in a 9-3 victory over San Francisco last Thursday. Ray gave up three earned runs in 5.2 innings, but the D-backs exploded for seven late runs to clinch the series victory. Arizona struggled last season when Ray was listed as a road underdog by posting a dreadful 2-11 mark.
Jeff Samardzija counters for San Francisco as he attempts to rebound from a loss to Ray and Arizona as the right-hander yielded six earned runs in 5.1 innings of work, including three home runs. Last season, Samardzija closed out with a 2-7 record in his final nine home starts, but one of those victories came against Arizona last July.
Betcha didn’t know: San Diego dropped six of its final seven meetings at Colorado last season, but the Padres topped the Rockies on Monday at Coors Field, 5-3. Over the last two seasons, the Padres have actually won the first two games of a series at Colorado three times, including last April when San Diego plated 29 runs in two blowouts in the underdog role.
Biggest public favorite: Indians (-235) vs. White Sox
Biggest public underdog: Rangers (+105) at Angels
Biggest line move: Pirates (-170 to -190) vs. Reds
Tuesday's MLB Game Of The Day; Orioles at Red Sox
Covers.com
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox
Ever wonder what goes into those daily MLB moneylines and totals? We get the inside story behind the numbers from Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for the Wynn Las Vegas.
It may only be a week into the regular season, but the early story of the Boston Red Sox's campaign has been manager John Farrell's inability to fill out a lineup card in the way he had hoped during spring training. One day after placing Jackie Bradley Jr. on the disabled list, the Red Sox expect to get back Xander Bogaerts from bereavement leave on Tuesday as they return home to begin a two-game series with the Baltimore Orioles.
Farrell told reporters Monday the clubhouse at Fenway Park was fumigated and disinfected a few times while Boston was visiting Detroit over the weekend in an effort to fight a flu bug that has sidelined Hanley Ramirez and Mookie Betts while also sending reliever Robbie Ross to the disabled list. To add further insult to injury, Bradley joined Ross on the 10-day DL on Monday after learning he suffered a right knee sprain, while Bogaerts' return from Aruba was delayed a day when his flight never was cleared for takeoff Sunday night. The Orioles took a day off Monday to lick their wounds after becoming the last major-league team to suffer a loss in Sunday's 7-3 setback against the New York Yankees. Baltimore's dominant bullpen imploded in that defeat, as its relievers were charged with every run - including four in the ninth inning to Darren O'Day.
LINE HISTORY: The Red Sox opened at -120 and that moneyline has come back slightly to -115. The total hit the board at 9.5 and hasn't moved.
INJURY REPORT:
Orioles - CF J. Rickard (Out Indefinitely, finger), SP C. Tillman (Early May, shoulder), OF A. Santander (Out Indefinitely, elbow).
Red Sox - X. Bogaerts (Probable, personal), 1B H. Ramirez (Questionable, flu), RP J. Kelly (Questionable, flu), CF J. Bradley Jr. (Out, knee), SP D. Price (Early May, elbow), RP R. Ross Jr. (Late April, flu), SP D. Pomeranz (Probable, arm), RP C. Smith (Early June, elbow), RP T. Thornburg (Late April, shoulder).
WEATHER REPORT: It should be a beautiful evening for baseball at Fenway Park on Tuesday. Evening temperatures are expected to be in the low-70's with partly cloudy skies. Hitters may enjoy the wind as there is a 10-15 MPH wind in the forecast blowing OUT to left center.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Orioles RH Dylan Bundy (1-0, 1.29 ERA) vs. Red Sox LH Drew Pomeranz (2016: 11-12, 3.32)
Bundy allowed one run and four singles while registering eight strikeouts over seven innings in a win against Toronto on Wednesday. The fourth overall pick in the 2011 draft threw 69 of his 99 pitches for strikes and did not issue a walk as he limited the Blue Jays to one hit outside of a stretch in the third inning, when he gave up three straight. Bundy went 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA in six games (three starts) versus Boston last season and struggled against the two hitters he has faced the most: Bogaerts (4-for-12) and Dustin Pedroia (5-for-11).
Pomeranz originally was slated to make his season debut over the weekend in Detroit before a rainout on Thursday curtailed that plan, so he will draw his first start in the opener of this series instead after dealing with a flexor strain and a triceps issue during the spring. The 28-year-old struggled at Fenway after arriving from San Diego in a mid-July trade, going 0-2 with a 6.43 ERA in seven appearances (six starts). One of those poor home outings came in his lone 2016 start versus the Orioles, as he gave up five runs - including a pair of homers - over only two innings.
TRENDS:
* Orioles are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
* Red Sox are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. American League East.
* Red Sox are 1-4 in Pomeranz's last 5 home starts.
* Under is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
* Under is 4-0 in Bundy's last 4 starts overall.
* Under is 6-1 in Red Sox last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
* Under is 10-1-1 in Pomeranz's last 12 starts overall.
* Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.
WALK-OFFS:
1. Orioles CF Adam Jones and 1B Chris Davis have homered in the same game 36 times since becoming teammates in 2011 - the highest total for any teammates over that span.
2. Boston is the only team that has yet to allow a stolen base, as Cs Sandy Leon (three) and Christian Vazquez (one) have thrown out the runner on each of their four attempts.
3. All seven of the runs Baltimore's bullpen has allowed in 20 2/3 innings this season came in Sunday's loss to the Yankees.
CONSENSUS: Early consensus on this rivalry matchup has 62 percent of the wagers on the home team Boston Red Sox and Over is picking up 52 percent of the totals selections.