MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Tuesday, April 25th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Marlins @ Phillies
Chen is 2-0, 0.69 in two road starts this season; over is 2-1 in his ’17 starts.
Velasquez is 0-2, 7.20 in three starts this month (over 3-0).
Miami won six of its last nine games; their last four games went over. Phillies won their last four games; under is 5-2 in their last seven home games.
Cubs @ Pirates
Hendricks is 1-1, 6.19 in three starts this month (over 2-1).
Cole is 1-2, 4.70 in four starts this month (under 3-1).
Chicago won five of its last six games; their last seven games went over. Pittsburgh lost five of its last seven games; over is 7-1-2 in their home games.
Braves @ Mets
Teheran is 1-1, 4.30 in four starts this month (over 2-2).
Gsellman is 0-1, 7.56 in three starts this month (over 3-0).
Atlanta los its last six games; they’re 1-5 in series openers. Under is 5-1 in Braves’ last six games. Mets lost eight of their last nine games; over is 6-1-3 in their last ten home tilts.
Reds @ Brewers
Feldman is 1-0, 1.50 in his last three starts (under 2-1-1).
Davies is 1-2, 8.38 in four starts this month (over 4-0).
Reds lost five of their last six games; they’re 5-2 on road. Over is 7-3 in their last ten games. Milwaukee lost five of its last seven home games- over is 9-2 in its last 11 home games.
Nationals @ Rockies
Ross allowed three runs in seven IP (100 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 14-4 win over Atlanta.
Marquez is making his first ’17 start; he is 1-1, 5.23 in 20.2 big league innings (six games, three starts), all of which were LY.
Nationals won seven of their last their last eight games; they’re 7-3 on road. Under is 6-4-1 in their last 11 games. Colorado won seven of its last eight games; under is 9-4 in their last 13 games.
Padres @ Diamondbacks
Richard is 2-2, 3.37 in four starts this season (under 3-1).
Corbin is 1-3, 4.50 in four starts this month (over 2-2).
Padres lost their last five road games; over is 7-2 in their last nine games overall. Arizona won eight of last nine home games; over is 9-2 in their home games.
Dodgers @ Giants
Kershaw is 2-0, 1.76 in his last two starts (over 2-2).
Blach is making his first ’17 start; he is 1-0, 1.99 in 22.2 major league IP (11 games, 2 starts).
Dodgers lost six of their last eight games (under 6-2)- they’re 3-7 on road. San Francisco lost four of their last five games, are 7-13, their worst start since 1983. Under is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games.
American League
Astros @ Indians
Keuchel is 3-0, 0.96 in four starts this month (over 2-2).
Tomlin is 1-2, 11.68 in three starts this month (over 3-0).
Astros won nine of last 11 games, are 6-2 on road- their last seven road games went over total. Cleveland won five of its last six games; under is 5-1-1 in their last seven games.
Rays @ Orioles
Ramirez allowed one run in five IP (66 PT) in his first ’17 start, an 8-1 win over Detroit.
Miley is 1-0, 1.89 in three starts this month (over 2-1).
Rays lost three of last four games; they’re 1-7 on road. Last six Tampa Bay games went over total. Baltimore is 7-2 at home; five of their last six games stayed under total.
Bronx @ Boston
Severino 1-1, 4.50 in three starts this month (under 2-1).
Porcello is 0-2, 7.79 in his last three starts (over 2-2).
Bronx lost five of last seven road games; they’re 7-3 in last ten games overall. Red Sox is 7-2 at home; their last five games stayed under the total.
Mariners @ Tigers
Hernandez is 2-0, 3.29 in his last two starts (over 2-2).
Zimmerman is 1-1, 5.94 in three starts this month (over 2-1).
Mariners are 2-9 on the road (under 7-4). Detroit lost four of its last six games; they’re 5-2 at home. Over is 4-0-1 in their last five games.
Twins @ Rangers
Santana is 3-0, 0.64 in four starts this month (under 2-0-2).
Cashner is 0-1, 3.18 in two starts this month (under 2-0).
Twins lost six of their last eight games; under is 6-1 in their road games. Texas won five of its last six home games; under is 9-2 in their last 11 games.
Royals @ White Sox
Duffy is 2-0, 1.32 in four starts this month (under 2-1-1).
Covey is 0-1, 7.84 in his first two MLB starts (over 1-1).
Royals lost their last five games; 10 of their last 11 games stayed under the total. Chicago lost three of last five games; six of their last seven home games stayed under.
A’s @ Angels
Hahn is 1-1, 3.00 in two starts this month (over 1-1).
Ramirez is 0-2, 6.97 in two starts this month (under 2-0); Angels scored two runs in those two games.
Oakland won five of its last six games; four of their last five road games stayed under. Angels lost four of last six games; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine games.
Interleague
Blue Jays @ Cardinals
Estrada is 0-0, 0.00 (13 IP) in his last two starts; under is 3-1 in his ’17 starts.
Wacha is 2-1, 2.89 in three starts this month (under 2-1).
Toronto is 4-5 in its last nine games after a 1-9 start; under is 4-1-1 in their last six games. Cardinals won six of last seven games; under is 4-1-1 in their last six home tilts.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Mia-Phil: Chen 2-1; Velasquez 0-3
Chi-Pitt: Hendricks 2-1; Cole 2-2
Atl-NY: Teheran 1-3; Gsellman 2-1
Cin-Mil: Feldman 1-3; Davies 1-3
Wsh-Colo: Ross 1-0; Marquez 0-0
SD-Az: Richard 2-2; Corbin 1-3
LA-SF: Kershaw 3-1; Blach 0-0
American League
Hst-Clev: Keuchel 3-1; Tomlin 1-2
NY-Bos: Severino 1-2; Porcello 2-2
Sea-Det: Hernandez 2-2; Zimmerman 1-2
KC-Chi: Duffy 2-2; Covey 1-1
Min-Tex: Santana 3-1; Cashner 1-1
TB-Balt: Ramirez 1-0; Miley 2-1
A’s-LAA: Hahn 1-1; Ramirez 0-2
Interleague
Tor-StL: Estrada 1-3; Wacha 2-1
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
Mia-Phil: Chen 1-3; Velasquez 2-3
Chi-Pitt: Hendricks 2-3; Cole 1-4
Atl-NY: Teheran 1-4; Gsellman 2-3
Cin-Mil: Feldman 1-4; Davies 1-4
Wsh-Colo: Ross 1-0; Marquez 0-0
SD-Az: Richard 0-4; Corbin 2-4
LA-SF: Kershaw 3-4; Blach 0-0
American League
Hst-Clev: Keuchel 1-4; Tomlin 2-3
NY-Bos: Severino 1-3; Porcello 1-4
Sea-Det: Hernandez 2-4; Zimmerman 1-3
KC-Chi: Duffy 1-4; Covey 1-2
Min-Tex: Santana 0-4; Cashner 1-2
TB-Balt: Ramirez 1-1; Miley 0-3
A’s-LAA: Hahn 1-2; Ramirez 2-2
Interleague
Tor-StL: Estrada 0-4; Wacha 1-3
Umpires
National League
Chi-Pitt: Home side won last six Kulpa games.
Cin-Mil: Over is 12-2-2 in last sixteen Wolf games.
Wsh-Col: Home side is 10-3 in last 13 May games.
SD-Az: Under is 7-3 in last ten Cederstrom games.
LA-SF: Under is 5-0-1 in last six Hamari games.
American League
TB-Balt: Seven of last eight Hoye games stayed under.
Min-Tex: Home side won five of last six Fairchild games.
KC-Chi: Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Dreckman games.
Armadillosports.com
Yankees, Red Sox meet in Boston
By: StatFox.com
Baseball fans will be treated to one of the best rivalries in the game when the Red Sox host the Yankees on Tuesday.
The Yankees are going to be a bit upset when they take the field on Tuesday, as they are coming off of a series loss against the Pirates last weekend. New York felt like the better team in that one, so it was disappointing to come away with two losses in that three-game set. The team should, however, be able to regroup pretty fast. The Yankees are facing the rival Red Sox on Tuesday, and that means there is a lot on the line. Boston, meanwhile, is also coming off of a series loss. The Sox lost two of three against the Orioles, but they will be feeling pretty confident in their ability to turn things around here. The starters in this Tuesday matchup will be RHP Luis Severino (1-1, 4.05 ERA, 27 K) for New York and RHP Rick Porcello (1-2, 5.32 ERA, 23 K) for Boston. C Gary Sanchez (Arm) is still out for New York and 2B Dustin Pedroia (Knee, Ankle) is unlikely to play for Boston, as he is banged up and listed as day-to-day.
After having a rough season a year ago, Luis Severino has come on strong for the Yankees early on in 2017. Severino was a bit lousy in his first start of the year, allowing four earned runs in five innings of work. He has been lights out since that one, though. Over the past two starts, the young righty has allowed just five earned runs in 15.0 innings of work. He struck out 21 batters in those two games, so he is clearly making good use of his stuff thus far. If he can avoid giving up the long-ball on Tuesday then New York has a great chance to win at Fenway. Offensively, plenty of Yankees should be excited to face Porcello on Tuesday. That list begins with OF Jacoby Ellsbury (.333 BA, 2 HR, 4 RBI), who is a ridiculous 12-for-31 with two doubles, four homers, and four RBI against the righty in his career. Ellsbury has been seeing the ball well for New York, and his history against Porcello suggests he should be able to keep it up on Tuesday. Another guy to watch out for is OF Brett Gardner (.182 BA, 0 HR, 0 RBI). Gardner has had an awful season for the Yankees, but he is 11-for-33 with three doubles against Porcello in his career. This matchup could be just what he needs to snap out of his slump.
Rick Porcello won the AL Cy Young Award in 2016, but this season has not been as kind to him thus far. Porcello has had a few rough starts for the Sox this year, but he is coming off of his best start of 2017. Porcello pitched seven innings against Toronto on Apr. 19, allowing no earned runs. He struck out five batters in that game, and Boston would certainly take another start like that on Tuesday. Offensively, there are two guys on the Red Sox that are really worth monitoring on Tuesday. Those players would be OFs Andrew Benintendi (.347 BA, 1 HR, 11 RBI) and Mookie Betts (.313 BA, 2 HR, 11 RBI). Benintendi has been phenomenal in what is technically his rookie season. He is already one of Boston’s best hitters, and he should be ready to make an impact on Tuesday. In his short career against Severino, Benintendi is 2-for-2 with a double and an RBI. Betts, meanwhile, is red-hot recently. He has seen his average rise from .286 to .313 over the past 10 games, and he also had a homer and three RBI against Baltimore on Sunday.
MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com
Double-Play Picks
Houston Astros at Cleveland Indians (+105, 8.5)
The Astros begin a three-game series in Cleveland against the Indians in a matchup of two teams who many pegged to be serious contenders in the American League.
Houston is in the middle of a six game road trip, in which they just took two of three from the Tampa Bay Rays and are 9-2 in their last 11 games overall. The ‘Stros have gotten off to the hot start thanks to solid hitting and great pitching.
They rank fourth in the majors in batting average and sixth in OPS, while ranking third in team ERA, second in WHIP and fourth in strikeouts.
Houston sends ace Dallas Keuchel to the mound Tuesday, who looks every bit the guy who won the Cy Young Award in 2015. The lefty is 3-0 in four starts with a 0.96 ERA, 0.79 WHIP to go along with 22 strikeouts to just six walks.
Keuchel matches up with the struggling, to put it nicely Josh Tomlin. The Cleveland right-hander is 1-2 in two starts with a whopping 11.68 ERA, while opponents hold a very high .410 OBP.
Pick: Houston -125
Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers (+101, 9)
The Twins and Rangers continue their three game series in Texas on Tuesday, in a matchup of two teams which have had an up-and-down start to the season.
After a 7-4 start, the Twins have dropped five of their last seven games, while the Rangers needed a four game winning streak to reach .500 before dropping Game 1 of this series to Minnesota.
The biggest problem for the Rangers this season seems to be their approach at the plate. They are not scoring if they aren’t hitting home runs. They rank third in the bigs in dingers, but are 28th in batting average and 14th in scoring. The result has been them going Under in nine of their last 11 games.
The Twins meanwhile send Ervin Santana to the hill Tuesday. In four starts this season, the right-hander is 3-0 with a miniscule 0.64 ERA, while opponents have managed just a .178 OPB against him.
Minnesota isn’t great at scoring either, ranking 20th in runs per game and 24th in batting average.
Pick: Under 9
Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season to Date: 11-11
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros (3-0, 0.96 ERA, $109)
It's tough when you give up one run over seven innings and your season ERA still goes up. That's exactly when happened as a result of Dallas Keuchel's win over the Los Angeles Angels last week. Heading into that contest with the Angels, Keuchel was sporting a very tidy 0.86 ERA and after the game his number ballooned all of the way up to 0.96. Shame!
He is looking much like the pitcher he was two years ago when he went 20-8 with a 2.48 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP and 216 strikeouts on his way to his first Cy Young Award.
Slumping: Vince Velasquez, Philadelphia Phillies (0-2, 7.20 ERA, -$317)
Philadelphia Phillies' starter Vince Velasquez is not the worst starting pitcher in Major League Baseball, but if you just look at his numbers over the last two seasons you might think that he is.
In 15 innings this season he is 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA and an Opponents On Base Percentage of .377. Those numbers are bad, but the really alarming numbers come to the surface when you look at his Team W/L record. He had a decent start to the 2016 season, but from July of last year until now the Phillies are 1-11 in games that have been started by Velasquez - that's a winning percentage of 8.33 percent over his last 12 starts!
Tuesday’s Top Trends
* The Astros are 10-1 in their last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter. -125 @ Tomlin and the Indians.
* The Phillies are 1-11 in Vince Velasquez' last 12 starts. -105 today vs. Marlins.
* Under has cashed in 10 of the Royals' last 11 games overall. Total today @ White Sox is set at 8.
* The Cardinals are 1-9 in their last 10 interleague home games. -135 today vs Blue Jays.
Weather to Keep an Eye on
Rain could be an issue this evening in Philadelphia where the Phillies will welcome the Miami Marlins. The forecast is calling for rain all day, possibly tapering off later this evening. Even if they do manage to get this one in it will be miserable with temperatures in the mid-50's and a 20 mile per hour wind blowing in from right-center field.
We could also see wash-outs tonight in Boston and Queens where the Red Sox will host the New York Yankees and the Mets will welcome the Atlanta Braves. Rain is expected to fall all day in both game locations.
UMP of the Day
James Hoye: Tonight will be Hoye's fourth home plate of the 2017 season and there is certainly a distinct trend thus far...Under. All three of Hoye's previous games behind the plate this season have gone Under the closing total and seven of his last 8 games (dating back to last season) have cashed for Under bettors. He doesn't own a particularly high Strike Percentage (62.5%) but what you will notice about James Hoye is that he isn't afraid to ring up batters on third strike calls. Often home plate umpires will tighten their zone slightly with two strikes - Hoye is not one of those guys.
Dodgers, Giants square off
By Sportsbook.ag
L.A Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants
Sportsbook.ag Odds: L.A (-235), San Francisco (+197); Total set at 6.5
The San Francisco Giants took the opener of this series 2-1 last night as starting pitchers Matt Cain and Hyun-Jin Ryu did what was necessary to give their respective teams a chance.
This four-game set is the first meeting of the year between these hated NL West rivals and you know the Dodgers have to like their chances to pull square tonight with Clayton Kershaw on the mound. Kershaw is up against the unknown Ty Blach who is filling in for Madison Bumgarner after the Giants ace injured himself in a dirt biking accident and while that loss has deprived us of an “ace vs ace” showdown tonight, it has created a bit more betting value on this game.
There is no question that the Dodgers enter tonight with a huge edge in the starting pitching matchup and the huge -235 odds on the Dodgers ML prove that. Kershaw has been his usual dominant self in 2017 as L.A is 3-1 SU in his four starts, and he enters tonight with a 2.54 ERA.
But what is a little different for Kershaw this year is the fact that he's been getting plenty of run support from his teammates (6.8 runs for/game) and when that happens you can almost pencil in a win for the Dodgers when he takes the hill.
Undoubtedly the Dodgers will receive the bulk of the support on the ML tonight – current VegasInsider.com numbers have them around 75% - but I've never been one to favor laying -200 or higher prices on any team in MLB – after all even the best teams lose about 40% of the time – and it's those run support numbers and tonight's total that I'm keying on.
Being so early in the year that 6.8 runs/game of support Kershaw is a little inflated, especially considering L.A put up 14 for him on opening day against the Padres. The Dodgers are just 2-2 O/U in his four starts this year with those numbers, but both of those 'unders' came against Colorado; one at home when it stayed 'under' by the hook, and one on the road where the total was set at 9 because of the Coors Field factor.
However, on the road tonight in San Francisco against a young pitcher that isn't likely to last long or even come close to matching wits with Kershaw, L.A's offense should put up significant run support for Kershaw again tonight. Blach is a lefty and the Dodgers have been known to have issues with southpaws given the makeup of their lineup, but having faced six lefties in their last 11 games overall, L.A is feeling more and more comfortable against southpaws.
Blach is also nowhere near the talent Bumgarner is, so being aggressive early and getting to a Giants bullpen that has had its issues at times this year is definitely a positive for those looking to take the high side of this total.
The Giants offense hasn't been great either this year as they continue to be a lineup that has to string together multiple hits to put up crooked numbers, and doing that against Kershaw is quite tough. But there aren't many lineups that know Kershaw better than this San Francisco one and the offense understands that to give them a chance at a win tonight, they are going to need to tag Kershaw for 3+ runs.
Finally, we can't forget about the HP umpire tonight, Adam Hamari, who during his young time in the majors (less than five years) has been a hitter-friendly umpire with a record of 58-49-5 O/U overall. In National League games over the past two years the 'over' has hit at a 60% clip (18-12-2 O/U), and even the dreaded lefty vs lefty matchup that 'over' bettors typically hate, have seen an average of 7.3 runs scored with Hamari calling the balls and strikes.
Kershaw starts are always going to receive plenty of 'under' support and tonight is no different with about 75% of the bets currently going that way, but the tremendous run support he's gotten this year, combined with a Giants starter making his first MLB start, and a favorable HP umpire for offense, all makes for a game that should see 7+ runs scored.