MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, August 1st, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Reds @ Pirates
Bailey is 0-3, 9.56 in his last three starts (over 4-3). Reds split his four road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-5-1

Taillon is 1-2, 10.54 in his last three starts; under is 6-1 in his last seven. Pirates are 3-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-5-3

Reds lost six of last seven games, are 5-13 in road series openers. Over is 5-1 in their last six games. Pittsburgh lost four of last five games; 7-9 in home series openers. Under is 14-1 in their last 15 home games.

Nationals @ Marlins
Scherzer is 4-0, 2.63 in his last six starts, last five of which went over. Washington is 8-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-6-1

O’Grady is 2-1, 3.68 in four starts this year (under 3-1). Marlins are 1-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-1-1

Nationals are 6-3 in last nine games; under is 6-1 in their last seven road games. Miami won four of last six games; over is 6-2 in their last eight.

Dodgers @ Braves
Maeda is 3-0, 2.40 in his last three starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Dodgers are 5-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-5-1

Sims is making his MLB debut; he was 7-4, 3.75 in 19 AAA starts this season.

Dodgers won their last eight games, are 7-1 in last eight road series openers. Under is 5-2 in their last seven road games. Atlanta lost three of last four games; they’re 12-5 in home series openers. Under is 3-0-1 in their last four games.

Cardinals @ Brewers
Martinez is 1-1, 5.63 in his last four starts; over is 5-1 in his last six. St Louis is 3-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-10-2

Nelson is 1-1, 4.18 in his last four starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight. Milwaukee is 7-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-10-2

Cardinals won five of last seven games, are 6-9 in road series openers. Under is 4-1-1 in their last six games. Milwaukee lost four of last five games; they’re 10-7 in home series openers. Under is 11-4 in their last 15 games.

Diamondbacks @ Cubs
Corbin is 2-0, 2.45 in his last three starts; over is 4-1-1 in his last six. Arizona is 2-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-10-3

Lester is 3-0, 2.05 in his last three starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight. Cubs are 7-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-10-4

Arizona is 5-1 in game following its last six losses; they’re 10-6 in road series openers. Under is 3-0-1 in their last four games. Cubs won five of last six games, are 6-11 in home series openers. Under is 7-1-1 in their last nine games.

Mets @ Rockies
Matz is 0-3, 14.18 in his last four starts; his last three starts went over. Mets are 2-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-6-1

Hoffman is 1-2, 9.90 in his last four starts, last three of which went over. Colorado is 3-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-5

Mets lost four of last five games, are 9-7 in road series openers. Over is 8-2 in their last ten games. Colorado won six of last seven home games, are 12-4 in home series openers. Over is 8-4 in their last 12 games.

American League

Royals @ Orioles
Kennedy is 3-0, 3.72 in his last six starts; over is 11-3-1 in his last 15. Royals are 6-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-10-3

Bundy is 1-2, 8.55 in his last four starts; over is 8-0 in his last eight starts. Orioles are 7-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-8-2

Royals are 10-2 in last 12 games; under is 7-2 in their last nine games. Baltimore is 9-5 in last 14 games; over is 8-3 in their last 11 home games.

Detroit @ New York
Sanchez is 1-1, 7.05 in his last three starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. Tigers are 1-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-2-1

Sabathia is 2-0, 2.94 in his last three starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. New York is 6-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-7-1

Tigers are 4-8 in last 12 games; over is 6-2 in their last eight road games. New York is 9-2 in last 11 games- three of their last four games stayed under.

Indians @ Red Sox
Carrasco is 1-1, 3.91 in his last four starts (over 3-1). Indians are 8-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-6-1

Sale is 5-1, 1.46 in his last seven starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. Boston is 7-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-3-6

Cleveland won nine of its last 11 games; over is 7-5 in their last 12. Boston lost six of last nine games; under is 14-3-1 in last 18 games at Fenway Park.

Mariners @ Rangers
Ramirez is making his first start for Seattle; he was 3-2, 6.52 in eight starts for the Rays, last of which was June 21. Over is 6-2 in his starts.

Martinez is 3-0, 3.64 in his last three starts, last of which was June 25 (under 7-4). Texas is 4-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-6-1

Mariners won seven of last eight road games; under is 7-2 in their last nine road games. Texas lost six of last eight home games; under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 home games.

Rays @ Astros
Archer is 0-1, 4.21 in his last four starts; under is 7-5-1 in his last 13. Rays are 5-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-4-5

Fiers is 2-2, 2.89 in his last five starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. Astros are 5-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-8-3

Rays lost five of last six road games; under is 11-5-1 in their last 17 games. Houston lost three of last five games; over is 8-2 in their last ten games.

Blue Jays @ White Sox
Stroman is 1-0, 2.77 in his last four starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six. Toronto is 6-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-9-1

Pelfrey is 0-4, 6.43 in his last six starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Chicago is 3-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-8-2

Toronto won five of last eight games; four of their last five games went over. White Sox are 3-13 since All-Star Game; under is 6-3-1 in their last ten.

Interleague

Giants @ A’s
Samardzija is 1-2, 6.29 in his last four starts; over is 6-4-1 in his last 11. Giants are 4-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-12-6

Manaea is 1-1, 4.05 in his last four starts; over is 7-2 in his last nine. Oakland is 5-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-6-4

Giants lost their last six road games; under is 3-2 in their last five games. Oakland won its last three games; over is 3-0-2 in their last five.

Phillies @ Angels
Nola is 5-1, 1.49 in his last seven starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Phillies are 3-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-3-5

Nolasco is 0-3, 8.38 in his last four starts; under is 11-6-1 in his last 18. Angels are 3-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-11-4

Phillies won last five games, are 7-10 in road series openers. Under is 9-6-1 in their last 16 road games. Angels lost four of last six games, are 5-12 in home series openers. Over is 6-3 in their last nine games.

Twins @ Padres
Berrios is 2-3, 7.58 in his last six starts (under 10-3-1). Twins lost his last four road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-5-1

Chacin is 4-0, 2.54 in his last five starts; over is 2-0-1 in his last three. San Diego is 7-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-11-2

Twins lost six of last seven games, are 1-4 in last five road series openers. Over is 5-1-2 in their last eight games. San Diego won four of last five games; they’re 11-7 in home series openers- their last three games stayed under.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
Cin-Pitt: Bailey 2-5; Taillon 7-7
Wsh-Mia: Scherzer 14-7; O’Grady 3-1
LA-Atl: Maeda 12-4; Sims 0-0
StL-Mil: Martinez 10-11; Nelson 11-10
Az-Chi: Corbin 10-11; Lester 13-9
NY-Colo: Matz 3-6; Hoffman 7-5

American League
KC-Balt: Kennedy 10-9; Bundy 12-9
Det-NYY: Sanchez 4-3; Sabathia 13-4
Clev-Bos: Carrasco 15-5; Sale 15-6
Sea-Tex: Ramirez 0-0 (6-2); Darvish 9-13
TB-Hst: Archer 11-11; Fiers 12-8
Tor-Chi: Stroman 13-8; Pelfrey 6-11

Interleague
SF-A’s: Samardzija 8-13; Manaea 9-10
Phil-LA: Nola 8-8; Nolasco 5-16
Minn-SD: Berrios 9-5; Chacin 12-9 (5-0 last 5)

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
Cin-Pitt: Bailey 5-7; Taillon 2-14
Wsh-Mia: Scherzer 5-21; O’Grady 2-4
LA-Atl: Maeda 6-16; Sims 0-0
StL-Mil: Martinez 8-21 (5 of last 5); Nelson 3-21
Az-Chi: Corbin 11-21; Lester 9-22
NY-Colo: Matz 4-9 (4 of last 4); Hoffman 4-12

American League
KC-Balt: Kennedy 3-19; Bundy 3-21
Det-NYY: Sanchez 1-7; Sabathia 4-17
Clev-Bos: Carrasco 4-20; Sale 1-21
Sea-Tex: Ramirez 6-8; Darvish 7-22
TB-Hst: Archer 5-22; Fiers 6-20
Tor-Chi: Stroman 5-21; Pelfrey 4-17

Interleague
SF-A’s: Samardzija 8-21; Manaea 5-19
Phil-LA: Nola 3-16; Nolasco 8-21 (4 of last 4)
Minn-SD: Berrios 3-14; Chacin 8-21

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 54-42 AL, favorites -$656
AL @ NL– 56-49 NL, favorites -$366
Total: 103-98 AL, favorites -$1,022

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 50-46-2
AL @ NL: Over 60-42-4
Total: Over 110-88-6

Armadillosports.com

Tuesday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Dodgers (8-2 past 10 games, 47-11 past 58 overall)

The rich certainly got a lot richer at the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, as the red-hot Dodgers picked up Yu Darvish to strengthen the starting rotation, as well as Tony Cingrani and Tony Watson to bolster their bullpen. The way the league's top team has been going, it's hard to see why they need to fix what isn't broken. They have won 47 of their past 58 games, they're 10-1 over their past 11 road games against a team with a losing record, 18-6 in the past 24 away from home overall and 4-1 in their past five road games vs. RHP. They're also 40-14 in their past 54 overall against righties. L.A. turns to Kenta Maeda, as they're 10-2 over their past 12 starts and 4-1 over his past five outings against a losing team.

Coldest team: Rays (0-4 past four games, 3-9 past 12 overall)

The Rays were sitting pretty in the American League East on July 18 after a win in Oakland, within striking distance of the Red Sox and Yankees. They appeared to be right in the mix for a postseason spot, but it's been a slow burn since. They're just 3-9 over their past 12 games, including a 14-7 beating in Houston that showed how far away from the contenders that they really are. Tampa Bay is anything but done, still just 4 1/2 games off the pace in the AL East. However, to be serious contenders they'll have to win on the road. They have just one win over the past six on the road, and they're 1-7 over the past eight vs. RHP and 0-5 in their past five against the AL West.

Hottest pitcher: Chris Sale, Red Sox (13-4, 2.73 ERA)

The Red Sox turn to Sale to keep things rolling in the right direction in their showdown series against the Indians. Boston won the opener on Monday by a 6-2 count, and now Sale faces a team he knows all too well. He hasn't faced Cleveland yet in 2017, but he is 3-3 with a 3.38 ERA in nine starts over 53 1/3 innings against the Indians since the start of the 2014 season. He faced the Tribe frequently as a member of the Chicago White Sox. The All-Star wrapped up his best month of the season, going 3-1 with a 1.04 ERA in five July outings, as the opposition mustered just a .167 average against him across 34 2/3 innings over five starts.

Coldest pitcher: Ricky Nolasco, Angels (4-12, 5.07 ERA)

The team's Opening Day starter was sharp last time out, posting a quality start in a loss in Cleveland on July 26. Still, he finished 1-3 with a 5.72 ERA across 28 1/3 innings over five July outings, serving up four homers. It was his third consecutive losing month, and his second-worst month from an ERA perspective. Nolasco has allowed a league-high 27 homer, tied with Masahiro Tanaka of the Yankees. The good news for Nolasco is that Tuesday's opponent, the Philadelphia Phillies, rank 27th in the majors in home runs with just 109 through 103 games.

Biggest UNDER run: Cubs (4-0 past four overall)

The 'under' is a popular play when Jon Lester takes the ball for the Cubbies. The total has gone under in six of Lester's past eight assignments while going an impressive 19-7 over his past 26 starts at Wrigley Field. The ounder is also 18-7-1 across his past 26 at home against teams with a winning overall mark. Against the NL West, the under is even more prominent for the Cubs, going36-15-3 over their past 54 games. One thing that might worry under bettors has been Chicago's success against southpaws at the Friendly Confines. The over is 6-1-2 over the past nine home games vs. LHP. However, the under is 5-1 over their past six meetings with the Diamondbacks and 4-1 in their past five meetings at Wrigley.

Biggest OVER run: Astros (20-7-1 past 28 games)

The Astros have been an 'over' machine all season, and they are the only team in the league with more than 576 runs scored (623). Houston is averaging 5.93 runs per game while swatting a major-league best 172 homers. They also lead the majors with a .503 slugging percentage. The 'over' has hit in eight of their past 10 games on grass, 4-0 across their past four outings vs. RHP, and 24-7-1 in their past 32 games against the American League East. Mike Fiers hits the mound at Minute Maid against the Rays, and the over is 4-1-1 across his past six while going 7-1-1 in his past nine assignments against AL East foes. The over has cashed in four straight, including Monday's 14-7 series opening win by the 'Stros, as well as seven consecutive meetings overall.

Matchup to watch: Padres vs. Twins

When interleague league started many years ago, Mets-Yankees, Angels-Dodgers, Cubs-White Sox, Giants-Athletics were matchups that were highly anticipated, and are still special today. However, interleague play also gives us games like the Twins-Padres. Minnesota was a contender for much of the season, but July treated them very rudely. They're just 1-6 over their past seven outings, and 0-4 in their past four tries against the NL West. They have also dropped four straight road games by Jose Berrios. And if you think an off day will help them, think again. They're 2-7 across their past nine following a day off. The Padres are buried in the NL West, but they keep fighting. San Diego has won four of their past five, they're 4-1 in their past five at Petco Park and they're 5-1 across the past six outings at home by Jhoulys Chacin. They're also 5-0 in his past five starts overall.

Betcha didn’t know: The A's may have thrown the towel in by dealing Sonny Gray to the Yankees at the deadline, but Sean Manaea appears to be next in line to serve as the franchise's ace. He is 8-5 with a 3.82 ERA overall this season, and he has lost just two of his past 13 outings with seven victories during the stretch. He has faced San Francisco just once so far in his fledgling career, posting 5 2/3 scoreless innings last June against the Giants. San Francisco has won just twice over its past nine tries on the road against a left-handed starter, and they're 18-40 over their past 58 games on the road overall. The A's are the complete opposite lately, winning eight of their past nine at home vs. RHP while picking up wins in five of Manaea's past seven home outings.

Biggest public favorite: Blue Jays (-200) at White Sox

Biggest public underdog: Twins (+105) at Padres

Biggest line move: Brewers (+105 to -120) vs. Cardinals

MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Kansas City at Baltimore (-120); Total: 10

I’m certainly intrigued to see a line move against the Royals for the second straight day. Yesterday, it was to back Ubaldo Jimenez, which is terrifying. Today, it is a move on Dylan Bundy, who takes the hill against right-hander Ian Kennedy. I’m not sure if this is a bet on natural regression for the Royals, who had won 10 of 11 before last night’s loss, or if this is a position on the Orioles, who are probably a bit better than they have played.

Kennedy takes the mound with a 4.43 ERA, a 5.04 FIP, and a 5.05 xFIP. Therefore, it could simply be a move on the regression signs in his profile. Kennedy has allowed 30 HR each of the last two seasons and he’s on pace to be close to that again this year. The Orioles do still hit for power, so that’s also a consideration in this spot. He’s also seen a decrease in strikeouts this year. His .224 BABIP against is the primary reason why he has a much lower ERA than his FIP and xFIP. That probably won’t change too much, but any slight regression to add more baserunners is a bad thing.

If Dylan Bundy can pull a Kevin Gausman, the Orioles will be pretty happy with the silver linings of what has been a frustrating season. Bundy’s strikeout rate has dropped considerably from last season, though 22 of his 36 appearances were in relief last year. His home run rate is up, but his walk rate is down, so I guess you take the good with the bad. Bundy has a 4.53 ERA with a 5.03 FIP and a 5.23 xFIP, so it’s not like he has shining peripherals. That’s why the move on him is a little surprising.

It’s been a struggle for Bundy, who is pitching on extra rest. He has given up five runs or more in five of his last seven starts. It’s not a profile that I’m interested in backing. It’s Royals or nothing, but probably nothing, for me today.

Cleveland at Boston (-160); Total: 8

I’m curious if we’ll see some buyback against Chris Sale today. He’ll take on the Indians and be opposed by Carlos Carrasco. The Indians do have some pretty good batter vs. pitcher numbers against Sale. I’m not a believer in those. The sample size is rarely big enough to be significant. That being said, there are some people that do buy into it. As a team, current Indians have a .249/.327/.358 slash, but Carlos Santana has a .300/.378/.400, Jose Ramirez has a .357/.474/.357, Francisco Lindor has a .500/.529/.750, and Edwin Encarnacion has a .385/.500/.615. None of these sample sizes are larger than 45 plate appearances, so there’s nothing statistically significant there.

Based purely on value in the number, this opened too low at -145. It’s still playable at -160. The Indians may have some value at some point, since Carrasco is a very formidable pitcher in his own right and the Indians have the great bullpen that they have. Anecdotally, the Indians have spots like this, where they don’t look good against bad pitchers and then beat really good pitchers. They’ve knocked around some premier arms in the past when it felt like they had no business being in the game in past years. I won’t be playing it because I can’t quantify a whole lot, but I’m just saying that I wouldn’t be surprised to see them win and ruin a money line parlay.

St. Louis at Milwaukee (-115); Total: 8

On yesterday’s edition of The Bettor’s Box, I advocated a look at the Brewers series price because I figured that they would be an underdog in this spot. They are not, which is a little bit surprising to me. I’m not sure if the market doesn’t fully appreciate Carlos Martinez’s dominance or doesn’t realize just how inconsistent the Brewers offense has been, but the Brewers have been bet into a clear favorite and another round of steam has hit the board as I type.

Martinez has seen a modest regression in his numbers of late, so there may be some recency bias influencing the market today. He has a 3.52 ERA with a 3.83 FIP and a 3.63 xFIP on the season. Martinez has given up a few more home runs, but he has also picked up a few more strikeouts. He has 144 in 135.1 innings of work and a career-best 25.9 percent K%. Martinez has allowed five runs three times over his last five starts and had a start where he was fortunate to allow just three runs, two earned, on 10 hits. He hasn’t been quite as sharp. Last time out, he struck out eight, but in his previous four starts, he only struck out 15 batters. It seems like natural variance and regression to me. Pitchers have periodic stretches in which they struggle with command or control or just don’t have a feel for a pitch. Fatigue sets in and the arm angle drops a bit. It messes with pitch tunneling or velocity or something else. It happens.

This is a good spot for Martinez to get back on track. Over the last 30 days, the Brewers have a team slash of .245/.313/.400 with a .307 wOBA and an 82 wRC+. On the season, despite such a hot start, the Brewers have a .251/.322/.439 slash with a .324 wOBA and a 93 wRC+. They’re still up among the league leaders in home runs, but have experienced a bit of a power outage recently.

Jimmy Nelson has been a savior for the Brewers. While they’ve been struggling to score runs, the rotation has kept them afloat. Nelson has a 3.38 ERA with a 3.20 FIP and a 3.15 xFIP. He’s struck out 27.1 percent of opposing batters and has cut his walk rate down to 5.9 percent. Nelson is having a career year in every sense of the word. Nelson hasn’t allowed more than four runs in a start since April 29, so he’s kept his team in every ballgame and has had many starts that have been much better than that. Unlike Martinez, Nelson is not struggling. Over the last four weeks, Nelson has a 3.11/3.18/2.34 slash with a 49/7 K/BB ratio in 37.2 innings of work.

Times aren’t great in the Cardinals clubhouse. Yadier Molina seems to be sub-Instagramming Mike Matheny. The team did nothing at the Trade Deadline to either buy or sell. The Cardinals seem to face a bit of an uncertain future and I’m curious how that plays out over the rest of the season. They may be a sell team. As far as today goes, I liked the Brewers series price for a reason, so I’ll take a shot today, but I’m not expecting much in the way of offense, so it will be a close game. That means live betting may be a better strategy.

Tampa Bay at Houston (-115); Total: 8.5

Recency bias has played around with another line today. The Houston Astros opened almost -130 at Bookmaker and that number has been shaved down by about 15 cents. Chris Archer takes on Mike Fiers in this one. I noticed a lot of commentary on Houston as the Trade Deadline was going on yesterday. The Astros didn’t get Sonny Gray. They didn’t get Yu Darvish. They didn’t get Zach Britton. They got Francisco Liriano. I saw a lot of interesting tweets about how flawed the Astros are. To be honest, I haven’t paid enough attention to notice. They have bullpen issues and the starting rotation has been wrecked by injuries lately. I have noticed that, but some people I respect on Twitter made the situation seem somewhat dire, even going so far as to say that they’re more likely to get bounced in the ALDS than make the World Series.

With Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh just back off the DL and Lance McCullers Jr. back on it, the pressure returns to the shoulders of Mike Fiers. Fiers has a 3.71 ERA with a 4.99 FIP and a 4.21 xFIP. This is a guy that had a HR/FB% above 30 percent for a while, but has trimmed it to 19.6 percent now. He’s struck out over a batter per inning this season and the adjustments that he made to his arm slot and his arsenal have been a big help. Since May 30, Fiers has a 2.63 ERA with a 3.04 FIP and a 3.72 xFIP. He has a 7.4 percent HR/FB% over those 65 innings covering 11 starts.

I’m sure that there are people out there that don’t believe in the sustainability of it. I’m certainly skeptical. Fiers also went a stretch of seven starts without giving up a dinger, but has allowed four over his last four starts.

Poor Chris Archer. The guy is a darling with the peripherals, but his ERAs never seem to reflect those marks. Archer has a 3.09 FIP and a 3.38 xFIP, but he has a 3.80 ERA this season. He has the best K/9 and K% of his career, but still can’t seem to get that ERA down. This season, Archer has cut back on the long ball, but still has a .330 BABIP against, so he just hasn’t had a ton of batted ball luck. He hasn’t gotten a whole lot of help from the bullpen either.

The Rays offense really scuffled through the month of July, even though Evan Longoria and Steven Souza Jr. were both swinging very good bats. Even though Fiers, in some respects, profiles as a guy that they should hit, they haven’t hit a lot of guys lately.

I think we’re looking at a low-scoring game here, so I’d consider the under more than a side.

San Francisco at Oakland (-115); Total: 8

This is an interesting game that doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme of things, but it’s fun to look at from a betting standpoint. A little bit of Giants money crept into the market overnight and this morning to back Jeff Samardzija. We all know why that is. Samardzija has carried around a huge ERA/xFIP discrepancy all season long. He has a 4.85 ERA with a 3.14 xFIP. The market loves to buy guys like that. His 65.6 percent LOB% is a key reason why his ERA is so high. League average is generally between 72 and 73 percent.

The reason I haven’t bought in start after start like I normally would is that Samardzija hasn’t shown much in the way of command. He has a .329 BABIP against. He’s allowed 21 HR in 135.1 innings of work. He allowed 24 in 203.1 innings last season. Even in a bad 2015 year with the White Sox, he only allowed 29 HR in 214 innings. Since home runs don’t count towards BABIP, the .329 mark is another sign of just how poor his command has been.

Facing an American League lineup with power that didn’t trade any of its position players is not an ideal spot for Samardzija. Neither is the fact that his impotent offense has to face Sean Manaea. Manaea is one of my favorite pitchers in the game right now. He has a 3.82 ERA with a 3.64 FIP and a 4.15 xFIP. His LOB% is finally in the normal range, so the positive regression we’ve been betting on and backing in DFS formats may be drying up, but that means he’ll just keep performing at a quality level, but it won’t move his numbers around too much.

This season, guys that don’t give up dingers are like gold. He has a 9.7 percent HR/FB% on the year. He has a good strikeout rate. He’s my kind of guy to back. I’m going to back him again here today. Nothing came as a shock to the A’s yesterday. They keep Jed Lowrie and Yonder Alonso, which is a boost for their offense. There’s enough in that lineup to like the A’s today, especially against a guy with command issues.

Philadelphia (-115) at Los Angeles; Total: 8

Clockwork. Aaron Nola is pitching. Aaron Nola gets steamed. If you want to step in front of Aaron Nola, feel free. If you want CLV, back Aaron Nola on the overnights. Ricky Nolasco isn’t any good, so this should be a good spot for Philadelphia, if you’re willing to lay a price on a team that went east to west with no off day to travel. It could be an under spot, even with how bad Nolasco is, just because of the travel, but the Phillies lineup has been a bit better lately.

Minnesota (-110) at San Diego; Total: 8

I’m assuming we see a move on the Padres at some point today. It will be Jose Berrios for the Twins and Jhoulys Chacin for the Padres. The Twins have reshuffled their bullpen with the trade of Brandon Kintzler to Washington. The Padres wound up keeping Brad Hand, which is probably a mistake because his value will never be higher than it was yesterday with so many suitors and so much emphasis on relief pitching. But, they kept him and will look to move him at the Winter Meetings.

The Padres have been a popular team with influential bettors lately. We’ve seen quite a bit of steam hit the board on them. Jose Berrios shows some signs of mild regression with a 3.76 ERA, a 3.91 FIP, and a 4.46 xFIP. His HR/FB% is 9.8 percent, which is where the regression comes in. He never gave up a lot of homers in the minors, so I’m not buying it. Remember that xFIP assumes a league average HR/FB% in its calculation. Some guys just aren’t going to do that.

One thing that does really worry me about Berrios is the lack of strikeouts in July. In five starts, Berrios posted an 18/8 K/BB ratio in 23.1 innings of work. He also had a 5.79 ERA with a 5.25 FIP and a 5.31 xFIP. He allowed five unearned runs in his worst start against Houston on July 14. Pitching at the big league level every five days is tiring and taxing. The margin for error is already thinned by facing the best hitters on the planet. You can get by against minor leaguers purely on stuff. It takes more than that at the big league level. I do wonder if Berrios hit a little bit of a wall between getting tired in early July and then working back to form after the All-Star Break.

Jhoulys Chacin is what he is. He’s an innings eater for a bad ballclub. Chacin has a 4.22 ERA with a 4.33 FIP and a 4.24 xFIP. He’s a league average starting pitcher. None of his rates or peripherals stand out in any discernible way. The one nice thing about that is that you can assume he’ll give you five or six innings with three or four runs allowed and handicap based on that. Is that good enough? Can it keep his team in the game? Against Berrios, it should be enough, but the Padres offense has been pretty hit or miss throughout the year.

If you like the Padres, I think this might be the best price you see. If you like the Twins, I think you can wait. I don’t really like either side, but it’s a late night degenerate special, so you may be interested.

Tuesday's Best Bet
Vegasinsidr.com

Cleveland vs. Boston

Odds: Cleveland (+147), Boston (-163); Total set at 7.5

The Indians and Red Sox continue their first series of the 2017 tonight in what could end up being a matchup we see in October in the AL playoffs.

Boston was good enough to take Game 1 last night by a 6-2 score, and tonight they send their ace Chris Sale to the hill. Sale has been nothing short of dominant all year long, as he's got a 13-4 SU record, a 2.37 ERA through 148.1 innings pitched, and a whopping 211 strikeouts already.

Sale has a very good shot at being the first AL pitcher to have a 300K season since Pedro Martinez did it back in 1999 with this same Boston organization, but team wins are more important then individual accolades at this point for Boston and Sale will be in tough against another great pitcher in Cleveland's Carlos Carrasco tonight.

Boston enters play tonight a half-game behind the Yankees for 1st in the AL East, and everyone saw the blockbuster moves New York made over the past week to make their run at another World Series. But that's been the Yankees this year as they've dominated nearly all the headlines with their bombing phenom Aaron Judge and their overall swing for the fences style of play. Boston prefers to swing for the fences during the off-season winter months with acquisitions and there is no question that picking up Sale this past winter has been a huge part of Boston's success this year.

However, on the field, with no David Ortiz in the middle of their order anymore, the Red Sox have taken a more low-key approach offensively in getting to 58-49 SU as they are nowhere near the HR-reliant team that the Yankees, or any other AL East team, is for that matter. You'll often hear a saying in local lob-ball beer leagues that “singles win championships,” and Boston seems to have applied that notion to the major leagues.

The Red Sox have a league-leading 664 singles this year and when you combine that with their overall patience at the plate and ability to work plenty of walks (or at worst rack up the opposing pitcher's pitch count), you get a very good winning team that can beat you in a variety of ways. The ability to manufacture runs without the long ball is typically what teams have to do to find post-season success – just look at the World Series victors this decade (SF X3, St Louis, Boston, Kansas City, Chicago Cubs) – and the majority of them were never classified as “mashers” like the 2017 New York Yankees are for example. It's that approach that has been working for Boston this year and it could very well be that approach that takes them to another World Series appearance.

From Cleveland's perspective, they are in their own division battle in the AL Central and can ill-afford to go on an extended slide themselves. Carrasco has been good for them the majority of the year, but he's shown a tendency to really struggle in the early innings, getting tagged for a crooked number or two before he really settles down. That can be troublesome against a patient Red Sox team that will just try to pass the baton down the order, but the good news for Indians fans is the idea that for all the success Chris Sale has had this year, Cleveland is an old nemesis he has yet to face.

Sale has never been that stellar vs. Cleveland's top guys, as Lindor, Encarnacion, Ramirez, and Santana are all .300 or better career hitters vs. Sale, and have all faced him at least 13 times. The Indians have no issues rolling out a predominantly right-handed lineup to face Sale, and Cleveland has 329 hits (best in the majors and 34 ahead of 2nd place Colorado) against lefties on the year.

They've played the 2nd most games in MLB vs lefties which has helped them set their eye, and getting a lefty that this entire team knows extremely well has to be encouraging, even if it is Chris Sale. While an Indians ML play may be tempting in that respect, it's tonight's total that I see presenting more value.

A Carrasco/Sale pitching matchup is always going to bring plenty of attention to the 'under' and tonight's no different. Vegasinsider.com's betting percentage numbers show more than 80% of tonight's action on the total has been on the low side, as MLB total bettors continue to base much of their decisions on the starting pitching matchup. There is no question that seeing a Carrasco/Sale matchup would automatically lead you to an 'under', but with the majority that way and both teams more than capable of putting up runs in a spot like this, going against the grain is the better play.

After all, Cleveland's hitters know Sale very well and should find some success against him tonight, and Boston's “singles win championships” approach at the plate should frustrate Carrasco early on when he struggles and could even delay the time it takes for him to get settled in and start dominating the opposition. Four of Sale's last five starts against Cleveland all cashed 'over' tickets – including the last three – and all four of those games had at least eight runs scored, with three of the four reaching double digits. Boston's 4-1 O/U record the last five times Sale has faced an AL Central team speaks to his old rivals ability to have some success against him, and Carrasco tends to regress to the mean with a 5-2 O/U run after his last seven Quality starts.

So while the common initial reaction by everyone on this game will be to take the 'under', I've got no problem going against the norm here and being in the minority. Both of these teams are more than capable of putting 4+ runs on anyone in MLB regardless of who's pitching, and tonight's one of those where that common initial reaction gets burned in a big way.

Best Bet: Over 7.5

Red-hot Yankees host Tigers
By: StatFox.com

The Yankees will be hoping to keep their lead atop the AL East standings with a win over the Tigers on Tuesday.

The Tigers have lost five of their past seven games and their window is closing right before their eyes. This team has invested big in recent years, but this core is aging and Detroit is falling far out of the playoff picture. Without a huge winning streak, the Tigers know that they can kiss the postseason goodbye. With that being said, this is the type of team that can rattle off a few wins in a row and they are not going to quit very easily. The Yankees, however, are one of the best teams in the American League. They have won seven of their past eight games, and they have only made their team better with some key pitching acquisitions before the trade deadline. They’re trying to pull away in the AL East, but they must keep winning because the Red Sox are very good as well. The starters in this game on Tuesday are set to be RHP Anibal Sanchez (2-1, 6.18 ERA, 56 K) for Detroit and LHP CC Sabathia (9-3, 3.66 ERA, 74 K) for New York. The Yankees are an impressive 21-8 against the money line when Sabathia starts in night games over the past two seasons.

If the Tigers are going to have a chance to win on Tuesday then Sanchez must come through and pitch a solid game in this one. He was miserable his last time out, allowing four earned runs in 3.2 innings of work in a 16-2 loss to the Royals on Jul. 26. He will need to be a lot better in order for Detroit to have a shot here, and a quality start should be the goal for him. On offense, the Tigers will need some of their big bats to show up here. That means that guys like 1B Miguel Cabrera (.260 BA, 13 HR, 50 RBI) and OF Justin Upton (.280 BA, 17 HR, 67 RBI) can’t afford to struggle in this game. Cabrera is 10-for-37 with two homers and 12 RBI against Sabathia in his career, but Upton is 0-for-5 against the lefty. Detroit will need Cabrera to keep it up against Sabathia, but Upton needs to figure out a way to get to him.

The Yankees are sending CC Sabathia to the hill on Tuesday and the lefty will be hoping to be a bit better than he was in his most recent start. Sabathia pitched 4.1 innings against the Rays in that Jul. 27 game, and he allowed four earned runs in that one. He had, however, allowed just one earned run in his previous 11.0 innings of work. If he can give the Yankees six good ones on Tuesday then they’ll be very happy. Their bullpen is lights out after the moves they made before the deadline, so there is significantly less stress on their rotation. Offensively, one guy who is really swinging a hot bat right now is 1B Chase Headley (.274 BA, 5 HR, 42 RBI). Headley has gotten his average up from .263 to .274 over the past 10 games, and he has racked up four RBI over the past three contests. If he can continue to produce then it will be big for this lineup.