MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Marlins @ Phillies
Straily is 0-4, 5.52 in his last six starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. Miami is 5-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-9-2

Urena is 2-0, 2.76 in his last three starts; under is 4-1-2 in his last seven. Miami won his last five road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-6-3

Nola is 2-2, 2.90 in his last five starts; under is 7-2 in his last nine. Phillies are 6-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-5-6

Pivetta is 0-2, 12.41 in his last three starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. Phillies are 2-5 in his last seven home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-10-2

Marlins won seven of last nine games; under is 7-3 in their last ten road games. Miami is 9-11 in road series openers. Philly is 3-7 in its last ten games; over is 5-2 in their last seven. Phillies are 5-13 in home series openers.

Dodgers @ Pirates
Stewart is 0-0, 8.22 in two starts this year (over 1-1). Dodgers lost their only road start— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-1-1

Taillon is 1-2, 9.75 in his last five starts (over 3-1-1). Pirates are 4-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-6-3

Dodgers won seven of last eight games; under is 10-6-1 in their last 17 road games. Pittsburgh lost seven of its last nine games; their last six games went over.

Diamondbacks @ Mets
Corbin is 2-0, 0.00 (15.1 IP) in his last two starts; his last three starts stayed under. Arizona is 5-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-6-4

Milone is making first start since May 21; he was 0-2, 11.25 in three May starts (over 2-0-1). Mets are 0-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-2

Arizona lost five of its last seven games; over is 5-3 in their last eight road games. Mets lost seven of their last eight games; under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 home games.

Cubs @ Reds
Lackey is 5-0, 3.34 in his last six starts; over is 5-2-1 in his last eight. Cubs are 7-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-13-2

Bailey is 1-1, 11.57 in is last three starts; his last five starts went over. Reds are 0-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-7-1

Cubs won six of last eight games; over is 5-2 in their last seven. Chicago is 11-9 in road series openers. Cincinnati won three of last four games; their last five home games went over. Reds are 10-9 in home series openers.

Padres @ Cardinals
Richard is 1-0, 3.00 in his last three starts; under is 3-0-1 in his last four. Padres are 3-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-13-1

Lynn is 4-0, 1.82 in his last eight starts; under is 8-1 in his last nine. Cardinals are 6-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-10-2

San Diego lost six of last eight road games; over is 6-1 in their last seven. Padres are 6-13 in road series openers. Cardinals lost five of last seven games; over is 10-1-1 in their last 12 games. St Louis is 11-10 in home series openers.

Brewers @ Giants
Nelson is 0-1, 13.50 in his last two starts; under is 8-4 in his last 12 starts. Brewers are 5-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-13-1

Samardzija is 4-1, 4.05 in his last five starts; over is 5-2-1 in his last eight starts. Giants won his last three home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-13-6

Brewers won six of last eight games; under is 6-1-2 in their last nine. Giants won seven of last ten home games; five of last eight Giant games went over the total.

American League

A’s @ Orioles
Blackburn is 2-0, 3.94 in his last five starts (over 4-4-1). A’s are 2-2 in his road starts— their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-3-2

Jimenez is 1-1, 7.63 in his last three starts; under is 6-4 in his last ten. Orioles are 6-3 in his home starts— their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-10-2

A’s lost nine of last 13 games; their last four games stayed under. Baltimore lost eight of last 13 games; under is 8-3 in their last 11 home games.

Red Sox @ Indians
Fister is 2-2, 6.35 in his last four starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five. Boston is 1-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-5

Carrasco is 2-0, 1.69 in his last two starts; over is 5-1 in his last six starts. Indians are 7-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 17-6-1

Red Sox are 14-4 in last 18 games; under is 4-1 in their last five games. Cleveland is 9-2 in its last 11 games; under is 7-1 in their last eight home games.

New York @ Detroit
Tanaka is 1-1, 3.00 in his last three starts; under is 4-2 in his last six starts. New York is 5-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-10-2

Boyd is 0-1, 8.16 in his last three starts; over is 5-1-2 in his last eight. Detroit is 2-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-8-4

New York won five of last seven games; under is 8-4 in their last 12 road games. NY is 10-11 in road series openers. Detroit lost 8 of last 10 games; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine home games. Tigers are 1-5 in last six home series openers.

Blue Jays @ Rays
Rowley is 1-0, 2.61 in two starts this year (under 2-0) This is his first road start— Jays’ first 5-inning record with him: 2-0

Archer is 1-1, 4.07 in his last four starts, last three of which stayed under. Rays are 8-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-6-5

Toronto lost its last four road games; under is 8-3 in their last 11 games. Blue Jays are 4-10 in last 14 road series openers. Tampa Bay is 3-12 in its last 15 games; under is 14-3-1 in their last 18 home games. Rays are 7-13 in home series openers.

Twins @ White Sox
Gibson is 0-2, 5.79 in his last three starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Minnesota is 6-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-12-1

Giolito is making his first ’17 start; he was 0-1, 6.75 in six games (4 starts) for Washington LY, is 6-10, 4.48 in 24 AAA starts this season.

Twins are 12-4 in last 16 games; over is 7-2-2 in their last 11. Chicago lost seven of last ten games; under is 5-2 in their last seven home games.

Rangers @ Angels
Ross is 1-1, 11.65 in his last four starts (over 3-0-1). Texas is 2-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-3-1

Nolasco is 1-3, 6.25 in his last six starts (over 4-2). Angels are 4-8 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-13-4

Texas won enine of last 12 games; over is 4-3 in their last seven games. Angels won nine of last 12 games; seven of their last eight games stayed under.

Interleague

Mariners @ Braves
Gonzales is 0-0, 7.11 in three starts this season (over 3-0). Seattle won his only road start— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-0

Sims is 1-3, 5.64 in four starts this year (over 2-2); Braves lost both his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-3

Mariners won five of last six games; over is 6-4 in their last ten home games. Atlanta lost six of last seven home games; under is 6-3 in their last nine.

Nationals @ Astros
Roark is 3-1, 3.34 in his last five starts; under is 6-1 in his last seven. Washington is 7-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-9-2

Morton is 3-1, 3.09 in his last five starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Houston is 8-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-5-2

Nationals won five of last seven games; under is 9-0-1 in their last ten. Washington is 14-6 in road series openers. Houston won four of last six games; their last four games stayed under. Astros are 12-8 in home series openers.

Rockies @ Royals
Gray is 2-0, 2.89 in his last three starts; over is 4-2-1 in his last seven. Colorado is 3-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-4-1

Duffy is 0-2, 8.47 in his last three starts; under is 5-3 in his last eight. Royals are 4-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-9-4

Rockies are 3-7 in last 10 games; under is 5-0-1 in their last six road games. Colorado is 3-9 in last 12 road series openers. Royals are 5-3 in last eight games; over is 7-3 in their last ten home games. KC is 10-10 in home series openers.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
LA-Pitt: Wood 15-4; Cole 15-10
Mia-Phil: Straily 11-14 Urena 14-6; Nola 10-10 Pivetta 5-13
LA-Pitt: Stewart 1-1; Taillon 9-9
Az-NY: Corbin 12-13; Milone 0-3
Chi-Cin: Lackey 14-9; Bailey 4-7
SD-StL: Richard 9-16; Lynn 13-12
Mil-SF: Nelson 13-12; Samardzija 11-14

American League
A’s-Balt: Blackburn 5-4; Jimenez 10-10
Bos-Clev: Fister 3-4; Carrasco 17-7
NY-Det: Tanaka 11-12; Boyd 8-9
Tor-TB: Rowley 2-0; Archer 13-13
Min-Chi: Gibson 10-11; Giolito 0-0
Tex-LA: Ross 6-3; Nolasco 8-17

Interleague
Sea-Atl: Gonzales 2-1; Sims 1-3
Wsh-Hst: Roark 13-9; Morton 11-7
Col-KC: Gray 8-4; Duffy 9-11

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
Mia-Phil: Straily 5-24 Urena 3-20; Nola 4-20 Pivetta 6-18
LA-Pitt: Stewart 0-2; Taillon 4-18
Az-NY: Corbin 12-25; Milone 1-3
Chi-Cin: Lackey 12-23; Bailey 7-11
SD-StL: Richard 8-25; Lynn 7-24
Mil-SF: Nelson 5-25; Samardzija 7-25

American League
A’s-Balt: Blackburn 2-9; Jimenez 6-20
Bos-Clev: Fister 2-7; Carrasco 4-24
NY-Det: Tanaka 10-23; Boyd 6-17
Tor-TB: Rowley 0-2; Archer 7-26
Min-Chi: Gibson 7-21; Giolito 0-0
Tex-LA: Ross 5-9; Nolasco 10-25

Interleague
Sea-Atl: Gonzales 1-3; Sims 2-4
Wsh-Hst: Roark 8-22; Morton 3-18
Col-KC: Gray 2-12; Duffy 5-20

Umpires

National League
LA-Pitt: Over is 12-7-1 in last 20 Wolcott games.
Az-NY: Under is 7-3-1 in last 11 Layne games.
Mil-SF: Four of last five Bucknor games stayed under.

American League
Minn-Chi: Three of last four Reyburn games stayed under.
A’s-Balt: Under is 10-2 in last twelve TBarrett games.
Bos-Clev: Under is 9-4-1 in last fourteen BWelke games.
Tex-LA: Three of last four Cederstrom games went over.

Interleague
Sea-Atl: Seven of last eight Blaser games stayed under.

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 73-52 AL, favorites +$227
AL @ NL– 67-61 NL, favorites +$96
Total: 134-119 AL, favorites +$323

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 63-61-3
AL @ NL: Over 68-54-7
Total: Over 131-115-10

Armadillosports.com

MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Miami at Philadelphia (-125); Total: 8.5

Dan Straily and Aaron Nola are the listed starters for Game 1 of the doubleheader in Philadelphia. Straily has been a guy that I have watched a lot this season. I knew coming into the year that he would be a guy that had value because he posted a 3.76 ERA with a 5.02 xFIP last season. Those are guys that the market will not back the following year. With a high fly ball rate, Straily had a chance to be like Marco Estrada and keep burning non-believers in the betting market. Well, Straily’s offense hasn’t helped as much as I thought, but he’s pitched well overall.

Straily enters this start with a 3.80 ERA, a 4.16 FIP, and a 4.68 xFIP. His BABIP has been steadily rising, but his walk rate is down and his strikeout rate is up a touch. His splits by month are kind of interesting. He’s stopped working deep into games, which is a concern. Straily hasn’t worked more than six innings since the All-Star Break and hasn’t finished the sixth in each of his last three starts. He hasn’t pitched badly, per se. He’s only allowed one home run over his last four starts after home runs became a big problem. Over his last two starts, he’s induced a lot of ground balls, which isn’t how he has success. He did that for a stretch in June and I expected regression. He was able to stave it off for the most part, but it got dicey for a bit.

The Regression Monster finally found Aaron Nola. Nola has a 3.26 ERA with a 3.16 FIP and a 3.63 xFIP. He’s struck out 128 in 124.1 innings of work. His last start marked the first time since June 16 that he allowed more than two runs in a start. Nola gave up five runs on seven hits against the Giants. He just didn’t have it and those things happen. He walked three and struck out three.

I will say, I’m a bit concerned about Nola’s health at this point. Per Pitch Info Solutions, which is tracked by hand, Nola’s Zone% over his last two starts were 39.8 percent and 35.7 percent. His season-to-date mark is 49.1 percent. His velocity was fine, but I have to wonder if his injury issues are popping back up again.

That is disappointing because I wanted to back Nola in this spot. I think the steam will hit Nola, so if you like him, grab the -125 because I’m guessing this number closes higher. If you want to fade Nola, wait it out a bit.

Los Angeles at Pittsburgh (-110); Total: 9

Brock Stewart and Jameson Taillon are going to be ready to go at first pitch tonight. The Dodgers just can’t lose. There are some concerns with Alex Wood’s health and his declining velocity. He struggled last night, but the Dodgers prevailed late in yet another close game. Their ability to win toss-up games is uncanny. Their ability to win as many games as they have is uncanny.

The market has spoken this morning and the market spoke against the Dodgers. The visitors opened closer to -120 on the road, but now the Pirates are a small favorite across the market. Stewart is a regression candidate by the numbers, but sample size is certainly playing a role. Stewart has a 1.64 ERA in two starts and seven relief outings with a 4.04 FIP and a 5.06 xFIP. The market sees a big gap between ERA and xFIP and immediately pounces. To be fair, Stewart only has seven starts and 14 total appearances this season, so it’s a wonder how he’s even been able to be somewhat sharp. He did get stretched out to five innings last time out and struck out seven in Triple-A, so that’s probably about what we can expect. Four or five innings and then a heavy night for the Dodgers pen. That may have an impact on the move as well.

Jameson Taillon is also now a candidate for positive regression because of how bad he has been lately. Taillon suddenly has a 4.64 ERA with a 3.43 FIP and a 3.61 xFIP. He’s struck out 98 in 97 innings of work, but he’s got a .367 BABIP against, so command has been an issue here and there. Taillon allowed 17 earned runs over two starts on July 25 and August 1. Since then, he’s allowed eight runs over three starts covering 17.1 innings of work. The expectation of improvement in Taillon’s numbers is very reasonable. Overall, he’s been pretty good this season. Seventeen of his 50 earned runs came in 6.2 of his 97 innings. That means the majority of his starts have been solid.

I agree with this move and you should certainly take notice when people fade the Alabama Crimson Tide of MLB. There’s still a little bit of value on the Pirates and it wouldn’t surprise me to see a little bit of buyback come in on the Dodgers if you want to wait until the afternoon.

Boston at Cleveland (-195); Total: 8.5

I know Doug Fister isn’t very good, but should a Cleveland team that lost Andrew Miller, Carlos Santana, and burned up some of the bullpen be laying almost $2 against a pretty good team like Boston? I’m going to say no. Purely based on value, the Red Sox look like a play today.

Seattle at Atlanta (-105); Total: 10

Sports are a results business. I know that. But, there’s something endearing about how a team like the Seattle Mariners has managed to stay relevant with a collection of unrecognizable names and faces in the rotation. Marco Gonzales is the latest addition to that group and he’ll start on the road against the Braves tonight. Lucas Sims, who goes by Luke on Fangraphs for those annoyed with the fact that no specific results are found, is on the bump for the host team.

Gonzales had been a fringy prospect for the Cardinals for a while, with five starts and five relief outings in 2014, one start in 2015, and Tommy John in 2016. He made 11 starts for the Cardinals’ Triple-A team and looked competent while doing it, so the Mariners pounced because everybody with an arm has been hurt in their rotation this season. Gonzales will make his fourth start for Seattle tonight and his fifth start of the season overall. The southpaw hasn’t had much success. He’s given up 10 runs on 20 hits in his 12.2 innings with just six strikeouts and a couple of walks. A big problem for Gonzales is that he is primarily a two-pitch pitcher with a sinker and a changeup. There isn’t much in the form of mixing pitches in his arsenal. With the Mariners, he’s thrown his curve more frequently, so he’s trying, but over 78 percent of his usage in his career is sinker/changeup and both have a similar plane, so he can’t do much to change eye level or keep hitters off-balance.

This will also be the fifth start of the season for Lucas Sims. Sims has a 5.24 ERA with a 5.82 FIP and a 5.66 xFIP in his 22.1 innings of work. Before getting the call to make his MLB debut, Sims had a 3.75 ERA with a 4.28 FIP and a 3.39 xFIP at Triple-A Gwinnett. Sims is one of those guys that looked good against low-minors offenses and then struggled as he moved up the ladder. In Triple-A and the big leagues, the long ball has really been an Achilles heel. He only has 11 strikeouts in 22.1 innings at the MLB level after racking up 132 in 115.1 innings in Triple-A. If he can start missing a few bats, he’ll be better off. He’s gotten ahead 67.3 percent of the time, but just hasn’t gotten enough swings and misses, particularly outside the zone.

Still, I think there’s a little bit more upside in Sims. He’s working ahead, but he’s not able to put hitters away and hasn’t had much luck on balls in play. He’s done a good job to limit pull-side contact, so I think his batted ball profile should get a little bit better. Along with the strikeouts, he hasn’t had the same success inducing pop ups that he had in the minors. I’m not sure if he will, but at least I see areas where there’s room for improvement. I don’t get that same vibe from Gonzales. I’ll take the Braves this evening.

Washington at Houston (-175); Total: 9

Like the Boston vs. Cleveland game, I’m not sure why a slumping Houston team is such a pumped up favorite over the Nationals. This is probably my bias for Tanner Roark showing through, but the Nationals are coming out of an off day and haven’t played a whole lot of teams that really get the competitive juices flowing. Roark has that low LOB% at 66.2 percent and has some margin for improvement in his run metrics with a 4.70 ERA, a 4.42 FIP, and a 4.48 xFIP.

Charlie Morton has pitched really well this season with a 3.69/3.67/3.66 slash and it’s fun to see a pitcher whose numbers are nearly identical across the board. I understand the line move, which has gone from -155 to as high as -185 at the really public shops, but I truly believe this is a game that Washington wins closer to 40 or 42 percent of the time than 37.4 percent of the time. The initial line implied a 61/39 split, which seems a little bit more reasonable to me.

If you want to gamble on a dog, this might be the one.

Minnesota (-130) at Chicago; Total: 10.5

After playing two yesterday, both bullpens could get a workout again today with Kyle Gibson up against Lucas Giolito. Giolito, the centerpiece of the Adam Eaton deal with the Nationals, will be making his White Sox debut. Gibson is awful. He has a 6.05 ERA with a 5.40 FIP and a 4.81 xFIP. He’s got terrible K/BB rates and doesn’t have much command. I certainly wouldn’t lay -130 with him at home, let alone on the road, even if the White Sox are equally terrible.

It is incredible to consider the odyssey of Lucas Giolito’s career. He signed with the Nationals in 2012 and pitched two innings in rookie ball before shutting it down. He signed out of high school, so the Nationals really took it easy in 2013 with just 36.2 innings of work. In 2014, he worked 98 innings. As his workload has gotten higher and he has advanced through the system, the projections of his future value have gone down. Last year, he was awful in 21.1 MLB innings and he hasn’t pitched particularly well at Triple-A this season with a 4.48/4.44/3.85 slash. He still misses bats with 134 strikeouts, but 17 HR allowed and 59 walks allowed are two seriously concerning statistics.

I’m not going to be financially invested in this game, but it would be nice to see Giolito look competent against an MLB lineup, even one without the services of Miguel Sano.

Colorado at Kansas City (-120); Total: 9

The Rockies are feeling some pressure from below for the first time in a while and the Royals are desperately trying to hang on to their playoff chances. The Royals are only 1.5 out, but with the traffic jam that is the AL Wild Card, it’s almost more important to see how many teams (two) are between you and the second wild card spot. Colorado is only up four on Milwaukee and 0.5 on Arizona for home field in that all-important winner-take-all one-game series.

Jon Gray takes the mound for the Rockies. Gray shows some big signs of positive regression with a 4.74 ERA and a 3.63 FIP/xFIP, so I’m a tiny bit surprised to see money hitting the market on Danny Duffy. Gray has been limited to 12 MLB starts this season and has solid K/BB numbers, but balls in play have not been his friend with a .357 BABIP against. This has actually been a career problem for Gray, so don’t expect him to suddenly become a BABIP god at any point in time. Some guys just have high BABIPs because they induce a lot of high exit velocity ground balls or because they lack command below the waist and hitters can still square up pitches, just not hit them for power.

Danny Duffy has an interesting line this season. He has a 3.82 ERA with a 3.42 FIP and a 4.44 xFIP. He’s seen a significant drop in his strikeout rate this season, but he’s kept the ball in the park, so FIP is willing to overlook the drop in punchouts. He has a 7.3 percent HR/FB%, so xFIP can’t stand him. Some guys just don’t allow a lot of homers. Duffy is one of them. It seems like he has sacrificed strikeouts in an effort to induce weaker contact, which he has done, for the most part. I even look at Duffy and see positive regression because I’m betting his xBABIP is more like .290 with his batted ball distribution. His actual BABIP is .320. I like Duffy here and I think there’s some room for improvement in that BABIP metric the rest of the way. I’d take the Royals tonight.

Sizzling Angels host Rangers
By: StatFox.com

The Angels will be continuing their push for the second AL wild card spot when they host the Rangers on Tuesday.

The Angels are currently right in the mix for a spot in the postseason, which is very surprising at this point in the year. Not many expected them to be here right now, but they they are rolling as of late. Los Angeles is playing with a ton of confidence, which is the exact opposite of what Texas is playing with this season. The Rangers have been a contender in the American League for the past couple of seasons, but that has not been the case this season. The Rangers do still have a shot to earn a wild card spot, but it’s very hard to imagine right now. They would need a huge winning streak at this point, and they’d also need to figure out a way to change their mentality. Texas looks more like a team that is ready to fold than one that is willing to fight for a spot in the playoffs. Anyway, the starters in this Tuesday night matchup are going to be RHP Tyson Ross (3-2, 7.02 ERA, 31 K) for the Rangers and RHP Ricky Nolasco (6-12, 5.16 ERA, 114 K) for the Angels. Both pitchers have had their struggles this season, so don’t be surprised if there are a lot of runs scored in this one.

The Rangers have been winning games as of late, but that doesn’t mean that this team is necessarily brimming with confidence. They had high hopes early in the season, but they now find themselves doing everything they can to claw back into the playoff picture. That has to be disheartening for a group that is loaded with talent, but you can’t count them out just yet. Texas will, however, need a solid start from Tyson Ross on Tuesday. Ross has been awful this season, but he is a talented pitcher. Ross’ ERA was under 3.30 from 2013 to 2015, but he was badly injured in 2016 and that is what he is working his way back from now. He should get more and more comfortable with each trip to the hill. On offense, 3B Adrian Beltre is a guy that Texas will be counting on here. Beltre has dominated Nolasco in his career, as he is 4-for-5 with a homer and four RBI against the righty. He also happens to be having a great season, so he is definitely going to be feeling good when he steps to the plate here.

The Angels are playing very well right now, but they’ll need Ricky Nolasco to keep them going here. Nolasco has allowed five or more runs in two of his past three starts, but he has also allowed two or fewer earned runs in two of his past four. That shows how inconsistent this guy is, and you really don’t know what you’re going to get when he is out there. The Angels can only hope that he can give them a solid outing in this one, but it’s not looking very good here. He has allowed 13 earned runs in 6.2 innings of work against the Rangers this season, which is a pretty unacceptable mark. As for the Angels’ offense, OF Mike Trout will likely do his thing in this one. He has been truly incredibly this season and nothing has slowed him down just yet. A midseason injury certainly was trouble, but it didn’t take him very long to come back and play like the superstar that he is.

Tuesday's MLB Best Bet
Vegasinsider.com

Texas Rangers vs. L.A. Angels

Odds: Texas (+126) vs L.A. (-140); Total 9.5

The Angels fell 5-3 to Texas in the series opener last night as that first game back at home after a long road trip did L.A. in. Running into a sharp Cole Hamels didn't do the Angels any favors either, but with both teams in the thick of the AL Wild Card picture right now, these are must-have games for both sides. Texas was happy to get a strong performance from their club, and hope starter Tyson Ross can continue that train of momentum tonight.

In those current AL Wild Card standings, the Angels over the edge over Texas, as L.A. is currently sitting a half-game back of the Twins for that final Wild Card spot, while Texas trails Minnesota by two. Three of the four AL West teams not named Houston are heavily involved in this wildcard chase, which should make for some highly entertaining, and hopefully profitable AL West games over the next month or so.

Last night's opener was as well as it was interesting to see how both teams would reach to being at a different venue for the first time in awhile (L.A back at home after a 9-game road trip, Texas back on the road after a 10-game homestand), and for Texas to cash as +140ish underdogs with Hamels on the hill was a nice little win for MLB bettors smart enough to get on board.

Yet, for this evening's Game 2, it's more about the total for me as both teams – who have each been playing well – should be able to light up the scoreboard a bit.

There definitely is an argument that can be made that with both teams battling tooth and nail for wildcard positioning that a playoff-like, defensive-minded game will be played tonight. It won't be long before runs are at a premium all across baseball, but specifically regarding this series, 'under' bettors should at least wait until tomorrow's game.

Tonight, we've got Tyson Ross squaring off against Ricky Nolasco and neither of them has an ERA below 5.16 on the season. In fact, if you combine both of their average runs scored vs their team over their last three respective starts, you get a total of 11.3 runs. Ross has an ERA of 6.59 (WHIP of 2.05), and Nolasco's ERA is 7.36 over that same span, making it tough for anyone to be convinced that either of them can flip the switch this evening.

Yet, what may be even more supportive of this 'over' play tonight, is the fact that despite both pitchers having allowed an average of 5.3/game or greater over their last three outings, Texas and the Angels are a combined 5-1 SU in those six contests.

That means that both lineups know they've got to produce when these guys are toting the rubber for them, and the 7.7 runs/game of support Ross has gotten, and the 6.3 runs/support Nolasco has gotten over their last three starts definitely suggests that tonight's contest could easily turn into a slugfest.

Texas is 3-0-1 O/U the last four times Ross has been out there, and the Angels are on a 4-1-1 O/U run with Nolasco getting the nod.

So while playing the 'over' in this game tonight will end up being a solid majority play (70%+), the fact that the initial move here was to have the 'juice' on the 'over' open at +105 and currently sit at -115 suggests to me that this is in fact the way to play this game. Both teams would much rather rely on their offenses to get a big win with the pitching matchup we've got, and that should be exactly how this game plays out.

Best Bet: Over 9.5

MLB Daily Line Drive
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Double-Play Picks

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds (+145, 10.5)

The Cubs and Reds collide in Cincinnati this evening in the opening game of their three-game series.

These two offensive-minded teams met last week for four games at Wrigley Field and it was a fireworks display, with three of the four games going over the total and an average combined score of 14.75 runs per game.

This week at the Great American Ball Park should be no different. The wind is expected to be blowing out today and the ball will be flying.

The Cubs are averaging 7.125 runs per game over their last eight contests and will send veteran right-hander John Lackey to the mound tonight. Lackey seems to be getting into playoff mode as he has pitched very well over his last seven starts, but pitching on the road is definitely his weaker situation when looking at home/road splits with an ERA of 4.85 away from Wrigley Field this season.

Lackey's last two starts at Great American Ball Park against the Reds have not gone well with a pair of losses and an 8.49 ERA.

Homer Bailey will get the start for the Reds and it's certainly no secret that he's been terrible in his 11 starts since returning from the disabled list back in June. The Reds are being patient with their former ace, but it has to be wearing thin at this point.

In those 11 starts he owns an ERA of 8.44 and a WHIP of 2.04 and over his last three starts his ERA is 11.57 with a WHIP of 2.57, including a rough outing last week against these Cubs in which he allowed six earned runs over 5.2 innings of work.

Both teams are riding Over trends. Over is 6-0 in the Cubs' last 6 games following an off day and Over is 12-3 in the Reds' last 15 overall.

Pick: Over 10.5

Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox (+115, 10.5)

The Twins and White Sox meet today for the third game of their five-game series. The two teams split a doubleheader yesterday and by the end of this week they are really going to hate looking at each other's faces across the diamond.

The Twins currently hold the second wildcard spot in the American League, so these five games against the last place White Sox are very important.

The Twins are still one of the top road teams in baseball at 33-25 and will send Kyle Gibson to the mound today in Chicago.

Gibson has carved himself out a bit of a niche that we have been following for a little while now - he is very good on the road against bad teams. In fact, the Twins are now 15-2 in his last 17 road starts against teams below .500. In his last three starts at (what is now known as) Guaranteed Rate Field against the White Sox he is 3-0 with an ERA of 0.40 and a WHIP of 0.706.

The White Sox will call up right-hander Lucas Giolito from AAA to face the Twins tonight. Giolito was acquired from the Nationals in the Adam Eaton trade and does have some major league experience, posting a 6.75 ERA in six appearances (four starts) with Washington last season.

Although his season numbers in AAA are not great (6-10, 4.48 ERA) he has put it together in his last five starts with Charlotte (3-1, 1.71 ERA). His turnaround is solely based on command of the strike zone and the nerves of being back in the big leagues will have an impact on his performance tonight.

The Twins need this win and should be able to pull it out against a young pitcher and a bullpen that got plenty of work in yesterday's doubleheader (seven relievers used by the Sox).

Pick: Twins -125

Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season To Date: 120-112-13

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Lance Lynn, St. Louis Cardinals (10-6, 3.05 ERA, $102)

The Cardinals are fighting to stay in the National League Central race, currently sitting 3.5 games behind the Cubs for first in the division, and a big reason for that has been the team's starting pitching - with Lance Lynn leading the way.

Lynn has been outstanding for the Cardinals. The right-hander has delivered a quality start in his last eight outings with St. Louis going 6-2 in the process. In those eight games Lynn has pitched to a ridiculous 1.46 ERA and a 1.155 WHIP.

Lynn and the Cardinals are big -189 home favorites tonight against the Padres.

Slumping: Nick Pivetta, Philadelhia Phillies (4-8, 6.05 ERA, $-581)

The Phillies rebuild is in full swing and one youngster they will be taking a long look at heading into next season is rookie Nick Pivetta.

The 6-foot-5, 24-year-old right-hander has flashed some potential this season, but he is in the midst of a slump. He is 0-2 in his last three starts with a whopping 10.22 ERA and a 2.028 WHIP.

Pivetta will be taking the mound in Game 2 of the Phillies double-header against the Marlins today, where Philadelphia is currently a +110 home dog.

Tuesday's Top Trends

* The Los Angeles Dodgers are 53-10 in their last 63 overall. -110 today at Pirates.
* Under is 14-3 in the Baltimore Orioles' last 17 games vs. a right-handed starter. A's/Orioles Total: 11.
* The Arizona Diamondbacks are 3-14 in Patrick Corbin's last 17 road starts. -160 today at Mets.
* Over is 11-1 in the San Diego Padres' last 12 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Padres/Cardinals Total: 8.5.

Weather To Keep An Eye On

The Dodgers and Pirates might have a tough time getting their game in this evening at PNC Park - thunderstorms and heavy rains are expected all evening in Pittsburgh.

There are also some early evening thunderstorms in the forecast for Ohio that could impact the start times of the Cubs and Reds in Cincinnati and the Red Sox and Indians in Cleveland. The storms should clear out in both cities by 9:00pm local time.

The most notable wind tonight will be a very stiff 14-16 mile per breeze blowing straight out to center field at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia where the Phillies will host the Marlins in a doubleheader. The total for Game 1 is currently set at 9 with Game 2 set at 9.5.

Ump Of The Day

Gary Cederstrom: Home teams have enjoyed seeing Cederstrom behind home plate this season. Home teams have gone 17-7 (70.8 percent) when the veteran umpire is calling balls and strikes in 2017, with the home team winning by an average margin of 1.42 runs per game. Looking even further back, the home team is 40-13 in the last 53 games he has been behind the dish.

That should make the Angels and their backers happy tonight as they host the Rangers. Plus, the home team is 5-0 in Cederstrom's last five games behind home plate when Los Angeles plays and Home team is 7-1 in his last eight Tuesday games behind home plate. The Angels are currently -140 favorites.