MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, August 29th, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Braves @ Phillies
Dickey is 2-1, 3.66 in his last five starts (under 4-1). Dickey is 1-0, 1.29 in two starts vs Philly this season. Atlanta is 4-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-9-4.

Leiter is 2-2, 4.45 in five starts this year (under 3-1-1). Phillies are 1-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-3

Braves lost four of last five games; over is 6-3 in their last nine road games. Phillies are 6-4 in last ten games; over is 8-5-1 in their last 14 games.

Marlins @ Nationals
Worley is 0-1, 8.78 in his last three starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five. Miami is 3-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-4-2

Jackson is 2-1, 1.89 in his last three starts (under 6-1). Washington is 2-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-3-2

Marlins are 13-4 in last 17 games; over is 5-1 in their last six games. Washington is 12-6 in its last 18 games; their last four games went over.

Mets @ Reds
Flexen is 3-1, 4.09 in his last four starts, last three of which stayed under. Mets are 2-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-3

Romano is 1-0, 1.93 in his last two starts (under 6-4). Reds are 2-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-6-1

Mets are 4-11 in their last 15 games; their last three games went over. New York is 11-9 in road series openers. Cincinnati lost five of last seven games; under is 3-1 in their last four games. Reds are 11-10 in home series openers.

Cardinals @ Brewers
Weaver is 2-1, 2.95 in his first three MLB starts (under 2-1). St Louis won his only road start— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-1

Garza is 1-2, 10.50 in his last four starts; under is 7-2-1 in his last ten. Garza is 2-0, 4.22 vs St Louis this year. Milwaukee is 6-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-8-3

Cardinals lost six of last eight games; over is 7-1-1 in their last nine road games. St Louis is 8-12 in road series openers. Milwaukee won their last four home games; their last eight games stayed under. Brewers are 12-9 in home series openers.

Pirates @ Cubs
Kuhl is 1-2, 5.14 in his last three starts; under is 6-1-1 in his last eight. He is 0-1, 19.28 in two starts vs Chicago this year. Pirates are 3-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-10-3

Arrieta is 3-0, 2.22 in his last four starts, 0-2, 5.63 in three starts vs Pittsburgh. Over is 4-2-2 in his last eight starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-7-4

Pirates are 5-11 in last 16 games; over is 7-5-1 in their last 13 games. Cubs lost three of last five games; over is 8-5-1 in their last 14.

Dodgers @ Diamondbacks
Hill is 1-1, 3.24 in his last four starts; he had a no-hitter in 10th inning in his last start. Under is 4-2-1 in his last seven. Hill is 0-1, 2.70 in two starts vs Arizona this year. Dodgers are 5-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-6-4

Godley is 0-3, 5.06 in his last three starts; under is 3-1-2 in his last six. Godley is 0-1, 2.92 in two starts against the Dodgers this year. Arizona is 4-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-8-3

Dodgers are 4-4 in their last eight games; their last five games stayed under. LA is 11-2 in its last 13 road series openers. Arizona won six of last seven games; four of their last five games stayed under. Snakes are 15-6 in home series openers.

Giants @ Padres
Moore is 1-0, 2.21 in his last three starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five. Giants are 2-10 in his road starts this year— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-17-6

Perdomo is 0-2, 6.00 in his last three starts; over is 5-2-1 in his last eight starts. Perdomo is 0-0, 5.25 in two starts vs SF this year. Padres are 6-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-9-4

Giants are 4-13 in last 17 road games; seven of their last eight games overall stayed under. Padres are 1-5 in their last six games; under is 9-2-1 in their last 12 games overall.

American League

Indians @ New York
Bauer is 6-0, 2.58 in his last seven starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six. Cleveland is 6-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-8-3

Garcia is 0-1, 7.32 in four starts for New York (under 3-1). New York won his only home start— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-3-1

Indians are 14-4 in their last 18 games; under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 road games. New York is 9-5 in its last 14 games; under is 8-3 in their last 11 home games.

Mariners @ Orioles
Ramirez is 1-0, 2.50 in his last three starts (over 3-2). Seattle is 3-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-1

Bundy is 4-0, 3.99 in his last six starts; over is 10-2 in his last 12 starts. Orioles scored 55 runs in his last six starts; they’re 9-3 in his home starts. O’s’ first 5-inning record with him: 14-8-2

Mariners are 3-5 in last eight games; over is 5-4 in their last nine games. Orioles won six of last seven games; six of their last nine games stayed under.

Red Sox @ Blue Jays
Sale is 0-2, 6.35 in his last three starts; under is 8-3 in his last 11. Boston is 10-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-6-7

Anderson is making his first start for Toronto; he was 2-2, 9.00 in six starts for the Cubs this year (over 4-2). Anderson is 40-45, 3.99 in 121 MLB starts.

Boston lost four of its last five games; under is 6-4 in its last ten games. Blue Jays lost eight of last ten games; under is 9-3 in their last 12 home games.

White Sox @ Twins
Shields is 0-0, 4.15 in his last three starts; his last four starts stayed under. Chicago is 2-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-9-3

Santana is 2-0, 4.09 in his last five starts; under is 5-2-2 in his last nine. Minnesota is 5-8 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-8-6

White Sox won four of last five games; their last six games stayed under. Chicago is 6-15 in road series openers. Minnesota won its last four home games; under is 5-1 in their last six games overall. Twins are 11-10 in home series openers.

Rays @ Royals
Cobb is 0-2, 6.08 in his last three starts; under is 7-2 in his last nine. Tampa Bay is 6-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-8-3

Junis is 2-0, 1.86 in his last three starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Royals are 3-1 in his last four— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-4

Tampa Bay won six of last eight games; over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Royals lost their last five games; they haven’t scored a run in 43 innings. Under is 4-3 in their last seven games.

Rangers vs Astros (@ St Petersburg)
Perez is 4-0, 3.00 in his last four starts (under 3-1). Perez is 0-2, 14.04 vs Houston this year. Rangers’ first 5-inning record with him: 10-12-3

Fiers is 1-4, 6.61 in his last six starts; under is 2-0-1 in his last three. Fiers is 0-1, 9.90 in two starts vs Texas this year. Astros’ first 5-inning record with him: 11-11-3

This is series is in the Trop where the Rays normally play. Rangers lost four of last five games (over 4-1). Texas is 9-12 in series openers away from home. Houston won three of last four games; under is 7-2 in their last nine games. Astros are 15-6 in series openers away from home.

A’s @ Angels
Smith is 0-3, 5.67 in seven starts this year (under 5-1-1). Oakland is 1-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-4-1

Scribner is 1-1, 5.79 in three starts this year (under 2-1). Angels are 2-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-2

A’s won five of last eight games; under is 7-3 in their last ten games. Angels lost five of last eight games; under is 10-5 in their last 15.

Interleague

Tigers @ Rockies
Fulmer is 0-5, 6.75 in his last six starts; under is 4-2-1 in his last seven road starts. Detroit is 4-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-10-3

Marquez is 1-1, 4.18 in his last five starts; under is 6-0-1 in his last seven. Colorado is 8-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-6-3

Tigers are 4-10 in last 14 games; their last four games stayed under. Colorado won three of its last five games; under is 4-1 in their last five games.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
Atl-Phil: Dickey 13-12; Leiter 3-2
Mia-Wsh: Worley 7-3; Jackson 4-3
NY-Cin: Flexen 4-2; Romano 4-6
StL-Mil: Weaver 2-1; Garza 9-11
Pitt-Chi: Kuhl 10-16; Arrieta 14-12
SF-SD: Moore 8-18; Perdomo 10-13
LA-Az: Hill 11-5; Godley 11-8

American League
Clev-NY: Bauer 14-11; Garcia 2-2
Sea-Balt: Ramirez 3-2 (6-2); Bundy 16-8
Bos-Tor: Sale 18-8; Anderson 0-0 (3-3)
Chi-Min: Shields 6-9; Santana 15-11
Tex-Hst: Perez 11-14 (4-0 last 4); Fiers 14-11
TB-KC: Cobb 12-12; Junis 6-3
A’s-LAA: Smith 3-4; Scribner 2-1

Interleague
Det-Colo: Fulmer 12-12; Marquez 14-8

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
Atl-Phil: Dickey 6-25; Leiter 2-5
Mia-Wsh: Worley 5-10; Jackson 3-7
NY-Cin: Flexen 3-6; Romano 3-10
StL-Mil: Weaver 1-3; Garza 6-20
Pitt-Chi: Kuhl 5-26; Arrieta 7-26
SF-SD: Moore 9-26; Perdomo 8-23
LA-Az: Hill 3-16; Godley 4-19

American League
Clev-NY: Bauer 4-25; Garcia 3-4
Sea-Balt: Ramirez 8-13; Bundy 4-24
Bos-Tor: Sale 2-26; Anderson 4-6
Chi-Min: Shields 5-15; Santana 5-26
Tex-Hst: Perez 11-25; Fiers 7-25
TB-KC: Cobb 4-24; Junis 3-9
A’s-LAA: Smith 3-7; Scribner 0-3

Interleague
Det-Colo: Fulmer 8-24; Marquez 6-22

Umpires

National League
Atl-Phil: Four of last five Carapazza games went over.
Mia-Wsh: Five of last six Gibson games stayed under.
Pitt-Chi: Six of last seven Scheurwater games stayed under.
SF-SD: Underdogs are 8-8 (+$403) in last 16 Vanover games.

American League
Clev-NY: Over is 10-3 in last thirteen Hoberg games.
Sea-Balt: Over is 15-3-2 in last 20 Gonzalez games.
Bos-Tor: Six of last eight Tumpane games went over.
TB-KC: Six of last seven Estabrook games stayed under.
A’s-LAA: Under is 11-6 in last 17 Foster games.

Interleague
Det-Colo: Underdogs won last three Everitt games.

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 76-55 AL, favorites +$103
AL @ NL– 70-64 NL, favorites +$179
Total: 140-125 AL, favorites +$282

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 65-65-3
AL @ NL: Over 71-57-7
Total: Over 136-122-10

Armadillosports.com

MLB Betting Picks & Tips August 29, 2017
Date 29th Aug 2017AuthorAdam Burke

Atlanta at Philadelphia (-110); Total: 9

Sharp money seems to prefer the Atlanta Braves today, which doesn’t really surprise me very much. RA Dickey goes for the Braves against Mark Leiter Jr. for the Phigtin’ Phils. The Phillies are now 49-81 on the season, but they are 12-2 against the Braves, so how’s that for crazy. The Braves are 57-72, so they are fading fast in the NL East standings.

RA Dickey is pitching for an audition with another team next season or for his $8M option to be picked up. Dickey and Bartolo Colon were picked up to be tutors, mentors, and innings eaters for the Braves this season. Dickey has managed to be somewhat effective. Colon wasn’t close to effective with Atlanta. Dickey has a 4.06 ERA with a 4.88 FIP and a 4.83 xFIP. Knuckleballers are a rare breed from a statistics standpoint, as it is really hard to put in controls for the unique rates and batted ball distributions of knucklers.

The Phillies lineup is full of younger hitters and they don’t see knuckleballers much coming up through the minors. That’s why Dickey could have a decent edge. Of course they’ve seen Dickey this season, but it is still a unique pitch to hit and it can really mess with timing. The Phillies probably aren’t a good match for that dancing offering.

Mark Leiter Jr. shows some signs of regression, hence the money coming in against Philadelphia. Leiter has a 3.86 ERA with a 5.10 FIP and a 4.47 xFIP. He’s given up a lot of home runs in his 58.1 innings of work and has been fortunate to post a .221 BABIP against. Leiter has five starts and 16 relief appearances under his belt. He threw seven shutout against the Marlins the other day and will be making his third straight start. It’s really hard to evaluate his season performance because of how he has been used. This will be his third straight start and he started three straight from June 23 to July 4 before going to the minor leagues.

I really don’t know what to expect from Leiter, who has some good starts and also a couple of bad ones. I know what to expect from Dickey. Seasoned bettors feel more comfortable when they can reasonably project an outcome, even if that outcome might not be great. The enemy you know instead of the enemy you don’t, so to speak. In this case, the enemy is variance.

If I had to play this one, I’d likely lean to the Braves, but there are better options out there.

Cleveland at New York (-110); Total: 9.5

We finally saw some LOB% regression hit for Trevor Bauer. Prior to his last start against the Red Sox, Bauer had stranded all of his baserunners. He had given up five solo home runs and those were the only runs that he had allowed. Last time out, the Indians rocked Chris Sale to give him a cushion and Bauer allowed four runs on seven hits in 5.1 innings. Now, Bauer and the Tribe will look for a series victory over Jaime Garcia and the Yankees.

Bauer still leads all qualified starting pitchers in BABIP against at .348, but his ERA has gradually been regressing towards his FIP and xFIP, which is a great site to see. Bauer has 157 strikeouts inn 139.1 innings of work and is just 13 away from setting a career high. It’s easy to overlook the fact that Bauer is just 26 years old because he’s already thrown 691.2 innings in his MLB career. He’s had all sorts of BABIP and sequencing problems this season, but he’s turned in a pretty strong year all things considered.

The AL has not been kind to Jaime Garcia. He pitched okay in his lone start for the Twins, but has a 5.95 ERA with a 6.23 FIP and 5.41 xFIP in four starts with the Yankees. Garcia’s walk rate has ballooned in the AL, which is no surprise with an extra hitter each time through the lineup. There’s also some small sample size noise in there. It’s also worth mentioning that Gary Sanchez is a horrible defensive catcher and Garcia throws a lot of stuff with movement. He threw five wild pitches with the Braves and already has two in four starts with the Yankees. That’s not necessarily predictive or anything, but I think it also speaks to the increased walk rate.

I have concerns about both pitchers here. Some of Bauer’s BABIP can be attributed to bad luck, but some of it is command-related as well. Garcia clearly has issues and the Indians are much better equipped to hit lefties right now with all their injuries to left-handed batters.

I’m looking for runs tonight, so I’d play the first five over. Yankee Stadium plays pretty small, as we know. I’d avoid the bullpens for the total, so look at the first five.

Tampa Bay at Kansas City (-110); Total: 9.5

The Royals may never score again. For the fourth straight game, the Royals got shut out. This time, it was more embarrassing at the hands of Austin Pruitt and the Rays bullpen. Today, the Royals will try to score against Alex Cobb. The Rays, whose slumbering offense awoke for a dozen runs last night, draw Jake Junis.

This is just the second start back off of the DL for Alex Cobb. Cobb has had a couple of significant blow-ups this season, but he’s pitched really well overall. Since the start of June, 23 of the 34 earned runs that Cobb has allowed have come in just three of his 13 starts. That means he has allowed 11 earned runs in the other 10 starts. All three of his bad starts came on the road, with visits to Houston, Baltimore, and Seattle. He only lasted 4.1 innings in his last start in his first outing off of the DL. He had not allowed a run on four hits with one walk and five strikeouts when he got yanked. He did throw 94 pitches, though, so he simply wasn’t efficient. As long as he’s more efficient today, he should be able to work deep into the game. Cobb has been a pretty underrated and undervalued arm this season. He doesn’t miss a lot of bats and it isn’t the sexiest profile, but he induces a lot of weak contact and keeps lefties honest with a pretty good changeup.

Jake Junis has seen a lot of the road between Kansas City and Omaha this season. He’s made nine starts and four relief appearances with KC and 12 starts with the Storm Chasers. He’s been exceptional in Triple-A, with a 2.92/3.12/3.60 pitcher slash and 86 strikeouts in 71 innings of work. With the Royals, he has a 4.68/4.98/5.13 pitcher slash in 57.2 innings. It’s a big leap from the minors to the bigs. Junis has had some good starts, some mediocre starts, and some bad starts. The Rays have good power against righties, so that is a concern, but they also swing and miss a lot and Junis has pretty good raw stuff.

From a side standpoint, I’m not sure which way to go, but with a Royals offense that hasn’t scored in four games and a Rays offense that hasn’t scored much since the start of August, this total looks a half run too high to me. I’d look at the under, which is very dangerous in today’s MLB, as we know.

Detroit at Colorado (-145); Total: 11

The Tigers and Rockies get together at Coors Field. This might actually be a series that the Tigers get excited about because some guys can pad their numbers a little bit in the thin air. When you’re as bad as the Tigers are, that’s about all you have to look forward to is building on personal statistics. This matchup would have been a buy spot on the Tigers with Michael Fulmer on the hill, but I don’t want to go against German Marquez.

To me, Marquez is one of the best-kept secrets in baseball. He’s got some really good numbers for a guy forced to make half of his starts in a launching pad. I really like Michael Fulmer overall, with a plus arsenal that features a double-plus changeup. I’m not sure how he fares in this park, but it’s enough to keep me off of the Rockies.

Los Angeles (-125) at Arizona; Total: 9

Rich Hill and Zack Godley meet in today’s top pitching matchup. Hill is a fade candidate for me today. Everybody knows what happened his last time out. Hill was working on a perfect game into the ninth inning. An error to lead off the ninth turned it into a no-hitter. A walk-off Josh Harrison home run to lead off the 10th turned it into a loss. The Dodgers couldn’t score for Hill and he was denied a line in the history books.

I’m not interested in backing him in this spot. The 37-year-old has battled ongoing blister issues and is sure to have other aches and pains in his aging body. He has gotten an extra day of rest, but still. This isn’t a guy that I want to back going into a hitter’s haven like Chase Field. Plus, Zack Godley is one of my favorite arms this season. Godley has a 3.15 ERA with a 3.27 FIP and xFIP. He’s struck out over a batter per inning and has exceptional peripherals. We’re getting a little bit of value to back the right-hander here because his last few starts haven’t been overly impressive. One thing that does worry me is that Godley has walked 10 batters over his last three starts. I do wonder if the rigors of a full season at the MLB level are starting to get to him. The number of innings (145) isn’t a career high yet, but pitching every fifth day against the best hitters in the world can get tiring.

I’m going to back Godley one more time here and then consider starting to fade him in case there is some fatigue creeping in. Tired pitchers issue walks and start making mistakes in the center of the plate. That could be Godley as we go forward, but I’d rather fade Hill under these circumstances than Godley. Also, the Dodgers have been playing at such a remarkable clip for so long that there’s a lot of built-in regression for them right about now.

Tuesday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Orioles (6-1 last seven) vs. Mariners

Baltimore isn’t ready to fly south for the winter as the Orioles pulled off their fifth straight win on Monday. The O’s edged the Mariners, 7-6 in a back-and-forth affair to avoid a letdown following a three-game sweep of the Red Sox at Fenway Park this past weekend. Baltimore improved to 5-2 in its previous seven home series openers, while topping the seven-run mark in each of its past five home victories.

Dylan Bundy heads to the mound for Baltimore in the second game of its set against Seattle, as the right-hander is unbeaten in his last six starts dating back to the All-Star break. Bundy has delivered four consecutive quality outings, while Baltimore is 4-0 in his past four home starts.

Coldest team: Royals (0-5 last five) vs. Rays

Amazingly, Kansas City hasn’t scored a run since last Thursday against Colorado. The Royals have played four games since and have been shut out in each one, three by Cleveland and last night by Tampa Bay. The 2015 World Series champions were on the cusp of a playoff spot in the American League in late July, but the Royals have dropped eight of their last 12 games overall.

The question heading into Tuesday isn’t if Kansas City can win, but if the Royals cross home plate even once? The Royals turn to right-hander Jake Junis, who is winless in each of his past two starts at home. Kansas City has lost more than five straight games only once this season, coming back in April when it dropped nine in a row.

Hottest pitcher: Trevor Bauer, Indians (13-8, 4.59 ERA)

After Corey Kluber won last night against the Yankees, Bauer looks to keep up with the former Cy Young winner as he has won his last six decisions. Bauer allowed four earned runs in his previous appearance against the Red Sox last Thursday, but was helped by tremendous run support in a 13-6 blowout. The right-hander has been sharp on the road of late by picking up victories at Kansas City and Boston, while giving up three earned runs and striking out 15 batters in those outings.

Coldest pitcher: Zack Godley, Diamondbacks (5-7, 3.15 ERA)

Godley is winless in his last three starts, while not receiving solid run support at the D-backs haven’t scored more than three runs in a game during this stretch. The good news is he has pitched well against the Dodgers, giving up four earned runs in 12.1 innings, while beating Los Angeles as a home underdog the last time he faced them earlier this month at Chase Field.

Biggest OVER run: Nationals (5-1 last six)

Washington’s bats have come alive recently after dropping 11 runs on Miami in Monday’s home blowout. The Nationals have scored at least five runs in each of their past four games, while hitting the OVER in three of the last four matchups with the Marlins. The OVER streak may be in jeopardy with Edwin Jackson taking the mound tonight as the right-hander has finished UNDER the total in six of his seven starts with Washington.

Biggest UNDER run: Brewers (9-0 last nine)

Milwaukee ended its west coast trip on a positive note by pulling out a pair of victories over Los Angeles as a sizable underdog, while limiting the Dodgers to a total of five runs in the entire series. In fact, all nine games on the road swing finished UNDER the total, while the Brewers didn’t allow more than three runs in five of the final six games. The Brew Crew is back at home this evening to face the Cardinals, as Matt Garza has seen the UNDER cash in five of his past six starts at Miller Park.

Matchup to watch: Rangers vs. Astros

Times are tough in Texas with the catastrophic flooding nailing the Houston area and surrounding parts. The Astros won’t be returning to Minute Maid Park for a while as their home series with the rival Rangers has been moved to Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg. Houston won two of three games over the weekend against the Angels, but will be road tripping for at least the next two weeks with their next series against the Mets being played at an undetermined location followed by visits to Seattle, Oakland, and Los Angeles.

The Astros will try to maintain their focus with Mike Fiers heading to the mound as Houston is just 2-4 in his past six outings. Fiers was knocked around by the Rangers the last time he faced them in Arlington earlier this month by allowing six earned runs in four innings of an 8-3 defeat. In two starts this season against Texas, Fiers has given up 11 earned runs, while the Astros are 1-1 in those outings.

Martin Perez counters for Texas, as the Rangers look to bounce back after getting swept by the Athletics this past weekend. Perez has won four straight starts, including terrific showings in road victories over the Mets and Angels this month, as he yielded only one earned run in those wins. In Perez’s lone start against Houston this season, the southpaw was racked in a 7-2 defeat by allowing six runs in 3.2 innings back on June 4.

Betcha didn’t know: The Tigers don’t like winning consecutive games. Amazingly, Detroit’s longest hot streak this season is four games as the Tigers go for back-to-back wins tonight at Colorado. However, Detroit has dropped six straight contests following a win, but the Rockies have lost four of their past five games at Coors Field.

Biggest public favorite: Twins (-215) vs. White Sox

Biggest public underdog: D-backs (+110) vs. Dodgers

Biggest line move: Padres (-110 to -120) vs. Giants

High-powered Dodgers face D'Backs
By: StatFox.com

The Dodgers take their league-best record to Arizona on Tuesday and they’ll be hoping to earn yet another win over the Diamondbacks in this one.

Los Angeles has been absolutely ridiculous this season, as the team is over 50 games over the .500 mark and has just about 20 games on the second and third place teams in its division right now. That might not seem that crazy, but they are playing in the same division as the Diamondbacks and Rockies. Both teams are having fantastic seasons thus far, and they are both looking like they will be playing in the postseason later in the year. The Diamondbacks do, however, have more to play for in this game, and perhaps that will give them a competitive edge in this one. Arizona will definitely want homefield advantage in a potential wild card game, so the team needs to win games like this. If the Diamondbacks are swept here then the Rockies will almost surely pass them in the wild card standings. The starters in this Tuesday night matchup are going to be LHP Rich Hill (9-5, 3.32 ERA, 122 K) for the Dodgers and RHP Zack Godley (5-7, 3.15 ERA, 124 K) for the Diamondbacks. Both guys have been great this season, so it wouldn’t be shocking if there are not many runs scored in this contest.

The Dodgers have been incredible this season and Rich Hill will be hoping to keep them going on Tuesday. Hill has been great for Los Angeles lately, as he has allowed two or fewer earned runs in seven of his past 10 starts for the team. He actually carried a no-hitter into the 10th inning of a game against the Pirates on Aug. 23 too, so he should be full of confidence out there in this one. It also helps that Hill threw seven innings of one-run ball against the Diamondbacks on Jul. 6, and the Dodgers ended up winning that one 5-4. On offense, one guy to keep an eye on in this game is SS Corey Seager. Seager is just 1-for-11 against Godley in his career, but he will be counted on to change that when he gets out there on Tuesday. It also helps that Seager has been on fire as of late, as he’ll be feeling extremely confident when he is up at the plate. 3B Justin Turner can also help the team in this one, as he has two career homers off of Godley.

Zack Godley has allowed two or fewer earned runs in five of his past 10 starts, but he has also pitched less than six innings in three straight and five of his past 10. That is something that will need to change on Tuesday, as the Diamondbacks are counting on him to go a bit deeper into this one. But at the same time, the team would also be fine with him pitching 5.2 innings of one-run ball like he did the last time he faced the Dodgers. They would take that type of quality over quantity any day. As for Arizona’s offense, the hope will be that 1B Paul Goldschmidt can come through at the plate for the Diamondbacks. Goldschmidt is playing like an MVP this season, but he is just 2-for-8 with only one RBI against Rich Hill in his career. If he can’t find a way to get to him in this one then Arizona is going to have a lot of trouble winning.

MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com

Double-Play Picks

Detroit Tigers at Colorado Rockies (-150, 11)

The Rockies welcome the Tigers for the middle game of their three-game interleague series Tuesday night at Coors Field.

We're in a bit of a pick slump at the moment, and our slump-buster all season has been the Rockies at home. Whenever we've desperately needed a win the Rox have come through for us.

Colorado comes into this game with a 38-26 record at home and will be taking on a Tigers' team who is a miserable 26-41 on the road.

The Rockies will be sending the streaking German Marquez to the hill tonight. Colorado has won his last eight starts at home and in those eight outings he owns an ERA of 3.12 (reminder - Coors Field) and a WHIP of 1.154.

The Tigers will counter with right-hander Michael Fulmer and, despite the fact that he will be the anchor of this rotation for many years to come, he is not finishing off the 2017 season on the strongest note.

The Tigers have lost five of his last six starts, including his last three starts on the road. Over those last three road losses he owns an ERA of 10.54 and a WHIP of 2.049.

The Tigers, overall, have lost nine of their last 11 games on the road and tonight will be Fulmer's first career start at Coors Field - pitching in the Mile High City is terrifying and starting pitchers making their Denver debuts never fare well.

Pick: Rockies -150

Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Cardinals (+110, 9)

Rich Hill makes his first start for the Dodgers since his near perfect game against the Pirates. He toes the rubber Tuesday night in Arizona when he faces off against the Diamondbacks.

Hill was perfect through eight innings last Wednesday in Pittsburgh, before a Logan Forsythe error in the bottom of the ninth and was still pitching a no-hitter into the 10th before surrendering a walk-off home run by Josh Harrison, to lose 1-0. Suffice to say, Hill may take some frustration out on the D-Backs.

The Dodgers’ southpaw has been solid for most of the season, going 9-5 with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. But in the latter half of the season he has been even better. In nine starts since the beginning of July, Hill is 5-1 (the one being the heartbreaking defeat in Pittsburgh), with a 2.25 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP, while striking out 72.

Hill faces a D-backs lineup that, while good at home, struggles against lefties - ranking 21st in the MLB in runs scored, 24th in OPS, and 27th in average against south paws.

Arizona counters with Zack Godley. The D-backs right-hander is 2-2 with a 3.22 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP at home and is 4-4 with a 2.60 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in night games this season.

Expect a pitcher’s duel in the desert.

Pick: Under 9

Yesterday's Picks: 0-2
Season To Date: 126-119-13

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs (13-8, 3.49 ERA, $-387)

Early in 2017, it appeared the Cubs were feeling the affects of a World Series hangover and former Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta was a perfect embodiment of that.

Arrieta began the season with an 8-7 record, a 4.35 ERA and a WHIP of 1.30, but since the All-Star break, the right-hander has really turned it around. In eight starts since the Mid-Summer Classic, Arrieta is 5-1 with a 1.78 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP.

Arrieta and the Cubs are chalky -210 home favorites today against the Pirates.

Slumping: Chris Smith, Oakland A’s (0-3, 5.56 ERA, $-40)

Veteran Chris Smith is currently taking a regular turn in the rotation, which means it is another lost season for the A’s.

In seven starts this season, Smith is 0-3 with a 5.22 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP, but it has been a little rougher recently, as the mostly career minor leaguer has gone 0-2 with a 6.89 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP in his last three starts.

Smith and the A’s are currently +145 underdogs when they visit the Angels tonight.

Tuesday's Top Trends

* The Atlanta Braves are 2-12 in their last 14 meetings with the Philadelphia Phillies. +100 today at PHI.
* The Seattle Mariners are 1-9 in Erasmo Ramirez's last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record. +125 today at Orioles (66-65).
* The Los Angeles Dodgers are 56-13 in their last 69 overall. -130 tonight at Diamondbacks.
* Under is 22-9-4 in the Los Angeles Angels' last 35 games vs. a right-handed starter (Chris Smith). A's/Angels Total: 9.5.

Weather To Keep An Eye On

Again, thoughts and prayers for everyone in southern Texas. Please donate to the American Red Cross (follow the link for simple donation instructions).

It's going to be a messy day in the Northeast today, but nothing like they are seeing in Southern Texas, as potential tropical cyclone 10 collides with another low pressure system. Rain is expected to impact play in Baltimore, Philadelphia, The Bronx, and Washington, D.C. Keep your eyes on Twitter and our Scores page for postponements.

Wind will also be strong in all four cities mentioned above and, if the games are played, the wind will be blowing in anywhere from 12 to 20 miles per hour.

Ump Of The Day

Mike Estabrook ranks near the top of the umpire Under standings at 15-7 and the Under has cashed in six of his last seven games calling balls and strikes. Going back to include last season, the Under is 30-17 (56.67 percent) in games called by Estabrook.

Estabrook will be behind the plate tonight in Kansas City for the game between the Rays and Royals. The Royals haven't scored a run in their last 43 innings (ties American League record) and Estabrook's wide strike zone may not help their mission to break the streak.

The total for the Rays/Royals tonight is set at 9.5.

Tuesday's MLB Best Bet
Vegasinsider.com

L.A Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Odds: L.A (-120) vs. Arizona (+110); Total 9

The seemingly unbeatable L.A Dodgers have hit a bit of a rough patch as they are now 4-4 SU in their last eight games and coming off their first series loss in forever.

Those losses have coincided with a power outage from the Dodgers offense (scored 2 or less in all four losses), and while the major media outlets and their sensationalist headlines approach will be quick to point out that All-Star rookie Cody Bellinger went on the DL about the same time, not team has a 91-38 SU record heavily relying on one guy, and a MLB rookie to boot.

So while some are asking if the Dodgers have lost their mojo without Bellinger, make sure you remember that a .500 stretch over eight games is something more than half the teams in MLB would kill for at any time.

Fans and bettors were flat out spoiled by the Dodgers run over the past few months, but with a big series beginning in Arizona tonight, many are a little hesitant to jump back on board with L.A.

Contrary to the Dodgers “struggles,” Arizona comes into this series opener red hot. The Diamondbacks swept the Giants over the weekend and have now won four in a row and six of their last seven.

Arizona is in firm control of their own destiny these days regarding their likely wildcard berth, but beating up on L.A and winning this series vs the Dodgers while they are slumping would go a long way towards the D-Backs confidence should they end up meeting in the NLDS.

We are still a long way away from that potentially happening, but it's definitely on the back of the minds of Arizona's players.

L.A may hear that the sky is falling around them after dropping a series to Milwaukee this weekend and going .500 over their last eight games, but they know they are plenty fine overall.

A tough stretch like this was bound to happen to L.A, and whether it's because the lineup is different with Bellinger hurt, or multiple guys are simply struggling at the same time, or the dog days of summer have finally caught up to L.A as they simply wait for meaningful baseball (playoffs) to arrive, it really doesn't matter.

This team is still a juggernaut and while a 4-4 SU record over their last eight is likely because of a combination of all those things and more, they are still a team I would not be looking to fade in this series. Playing a division rival with potential playoff previews written all over it will spark the Dodgers interest as a whole again, and there aren't many better places to spark a slumping offense than playing a series in hitter-friendly Arizona.

Tonight's pitching matchup has Rich Hill going up against Zack Godley, and both have been very good throughout the course of the year for their respective clubs. But things haven't gone as smoothly for Arizona's Godley of late, as the D-Backs are 0-3 SU in his last three starts thanks to opponents scoring 7 runs/game in his outings.

Godley got the ship righted a bit in a 4-2 defeat vs the Mets in his last outing, but a 10-3 loss to Minnesota and a 7-2 loss to the Cubs prior to that don't exactly suggest he'll do well against another offensive-minded team like L.A tonight.

He is 1-1 SU vs the Dodgers this year though and took a tough loss in a 1-0 game back in L.A just before the All-Star break, but give this L.A lineup – who is anxious to knock somebody around – a third look at you in a season and things could get ugly for Godley and the Diamondbacks tonight.

So with the Dodgers 17-5 SU after a day off, and 22-5 SU in their last 27 series openers, the -120 price tag on L.A this evening is too good to pass up. Rich Hill has proven he can carry this team when need be (ie if they are not hitting), and with Arizona coming in on a hot streak and off an 11-0 victory on Sunday, their ML price is a little lower then it arguably should be had both teams been playing relatively similar baseball the past week.

L.A may be waiting for meaningful baseball to arrive, but there is no question that this series is about as close as they'll get to that before October and I expect them to be ready.

Best Bet: Dodgers -120