MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, August 8th, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Marlins @ Nationals
Worley is 1-2, 5.60 in six starts this year (over 4-2). Miami is 1-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-3-1

Cole is 1-1, 4.91 in two starts this season (under 2-0)- this is his first home start. Washington’s first 5-inning record with him: 1-1

Marlins lost three of last four games; their last five games stayed under. Washington won three of last four games; under is 3-1 in their last four games.

Padres @ Reds
Perdomo is 1-2, 8.57 in his last four starts (over 3-1); San Diego is 2-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-6-4

Romano is 2-3, 5.86 in six starts this year (under 4-2). Reds are 1-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-3

San Diego lost four of last five games; under is 6-2-1 in their last nine. Cincinnati lost three of last five games; under is 6-3 in their last nine home games.

Phillies @ Braves
Eflin is making his first start since May 28; he is 0-3, 13.20 in his last three starts (over 6-1-1). Phillies are 1-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-4-3

Teheran is 0-3, 6.29 in his last four starts; under is 4-2-1 in his last seven. Atlanta is 3-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-8-4

Phillies lost five of last six games; under is 6-3 in their last nine. Phils are 7-12 in road series openers. Atlanta is 3-8 in last 11 home games; under is 7-2 in their last nine. Braves are 9-8 in home series openers.

Dodgers @ Diamondbacks
Maeda is 4-0, 1.64 in his last four starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. Dodgers are 6-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-5-1

Godley is 2-0, 1.93 in his last three starts; under is 7-2 in his last nine starts. Arizona is 3-2 in his home outings— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-5-2

Dodgers are 44-7 in their last 51 games; under is 6-2 in their last eight. LA is 9-1 in last ten road series openers. Arizona is 3-5 in its last eight home games; over is 4-2 in their last six. Diamondbacks are 12-5 in home series openers.

Cubs @ Giants
Quintana is 2-1, 4.13 in four starts with the Cubs (under 3-1). Cubs split his two road starts for them— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-2-1

Blach is 1-2, 3.10 in his last four starts; under is 5-1 in his last six starts. Giants are 5-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-8

Chicago lost four of last six games; under is 4-0-1 inn their last five road games. Giants lost six of last eight games; over is 4-1-1 in their last six.

American League

New York @ Toronto
Sabathia is 2-1, 3.80 in his last four starts; under is 10-2 in his last 12 starts. New York is 7-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-8-1

Happ is 1-1, 2.77 in his last two starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight. Toronto is 2-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-9

New York lost four of last six games; under is 5-1 in their last six. NY is 9-9 in road series openers. Blue Jays are 5-2 in last seven games; 2-6 in last eight home series openers. Over is 6-2 in their last eight games.

Red Sox @ Rays
Sale is 2-0, 2.45 in his last four starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Boston is 8-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-4-6

Pruitt is 1-1, 3.14 in his last three starts (under 3-0). All three starts were on the road. Rays’ first 5-inning record with him: 2-1

Boston won its last six games but lost four of last five on road; under is 5-2 in their last seven games. Red Sox are 8-10 in road series openers. Tampa Bay won four of last six games; under is 7-1-1 in their last nine home tilts. Rays are 6-11 in home series openers.

Astros @ White Sox
Keuchel is 0-1, 6.75 in two starts since coming off the DL; over is 5-3 in his last eight starts. Houston is 7-0 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-2-2

Holland is 0-4, 8.70 in his last six starts; over is 12-5 in his last 17. Chicago is 2-8 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-11-3

Astros lost four of last six games; over is 13-3 in their last 16 road games. Houston is 14-3 in road series openers. Chicago is 3-20 in its last 23 games; over is 6-3 in their last nine home games. White Sox are 6-11 in home series openers.

Mariners @ A’s
Miranda is 0-1, 7.16 in his last five starts; over is 6-1 in his last seven. Seattle is 7-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-8-1

Graveman is 0-4, 6.00 in his last seven starts (under 5-4). A’s are 3-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-4-4

Yonder Alonso stays in Oakland, but plays for his new team here. Mariners won six of last nine games; over is 3-1 in their last four. Seattle is 8-9 in road series openers. Oakland lost six of last nine home games (under 7-1-1). A’s are 5-11 in home series openers.

Orioles @ Angels
Hellickson blanked the Royals for seven innings (94 PT) in his Oriole debut, a 6-0 win. Baltimore’s first 5-inning record with him: 1-0

Bridwell is 3-0, 2.56 in his last five starts (under 4-1). Angels are 4-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-2-1

Baltimore won eight of last ten games; under is 6-2 in their last eight. Angels lost last three games; five of their last eight games overall went over.

Interleague

Tigers @ Pirates
Boyd is 3-0, 4.50 in his last four starts; Detroit scored 30 runs in the four games. Over is 5-1 in his last six starts. Detroit is 4-0 in his last four road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-7-3

Kuhl is 1-1, 2.95 in his last three starts; under is 4-0 in his last four starts. Pirates are 5-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-8-3

Tigers lost their last three games; under is 5-2 in their last seven. Pittsburgh won four of last five games; under is 18-3-1 in last 22 home games.

Rangers @ Mets
Cashner is 3-0, 2.37 in his last three starts; his last six starts stayed under. Texas is 3-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-6-3

Flexen is 0-1, 13.50 in two starts this year (over 2-0), lasting total of six IP. This is his first start at Citi Field. Mets’ first 5-inning record with him: 0-2

Rangers lost six of last nine games; over is 6-4 in their last ten road games. Texas is 8-10 in road series openers. Mets lost their last four games (under 3-1). New York is 10-8 in home series openers.

Rockies @ Indians
Marquez is 4-0, 3.21 in his lat five starts; his last three starts stayed under. Colorado is 5-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-5-3

Kluber is 2-0, 2.55 in his last five starts; under is 4-2-1 in his last seven. Cleveland is 7-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-7-2

Rockies won three of last four games; under is 5-2 in their last seven. Colorado is 3-7 in last ten road series openers. Cleveland lost five of last seven games; under is 4-1 in their last five home games. Indians are 9-9 in home series openers.

Brewers @ Twins
Garza is 2-1, 1.64 in his last four starts; his last six starts stayed under. Brewers are 2-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-6-2

Mejia is 0-2, 4.62 in his last five starts; under is 6-2-1 in his last nine. Minnesota is 4-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-5-4

Brewers won three of last five games; under is 8-1-1 in their last ten games. Minnesota won three of last four games; under is 4-2-1 in their last seven games.

Cardinals @ Royals
Wacha is 5-1, 1.90 in his last seven starts; his last six starts went over. St Louis is 3-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-7-4

Vargas is 2-1, 3.38 in his last three starts (under 3-0). Royals are 8-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-7-2

St Louis is 9-5 in last 14 games; under is 7-3-1 in their last 11. Royals lost six of last eight games; over is 4-1 in their last five.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
Mia-Wsh: Worley 4-2; Cole 1-1
SD-Cin: Perdomo 8-11; Romano 2-4
Phil-Atl: Eflin 2-6; Teheran 10-12
LA-Az: Maeda 13-4; Godley 10-5
Chi-SF: Quintana 2-2 (10-8 ); Blach 8-10

American League
NY-Tor: Sabathia 13-5; Happ 5-10
Bos-TB: Sale 16-6; Pruitt 2-1
Hst-Chi: Keuchel 11-2; Holland 6-15
Sea-A’s: Miranda 12-10; Graveman 4-5
Balt-LAA: Hellickson 1-0 (10-10); Bridwell 8-1

Interleague
Det-Pitt: Boyd 8-7 (5-0 last 5); Kuhl 8-14
Tex-NY: Cashner 9-9; Flexen 1-1
Col-Clev: Marquez 12-6 (5-0 last 5); Kluber 11-7
Mil-Min: Garza 8-8; Mejia 7-10
StL-KC: Wacha 10-10; Vargas 16-6

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
Mia-Wsh: Worley 5-6; Cole 1-2
SD-Cin: Perdomo 7-19; Romano 1-6
Phil-Atl: Eflin 6-8; Teheran 8-22
LA-Az: Maeda 6-17; Godley 2-15
Chi-SF: Quintana 5-22; Blach 6-18

American League
NY-Tor: Sabathia 4-18; Happ 3-15
Bos-TB: Sale 2-22; Pruitt 1-3
Hst-Chi: Keuchel 3-13; Holland 6-21
Sea-A’s: Miranda 10-22; Graveman 5-9
Balt-LAA: Hellickson 6-21; Bridwell 0-9

Interleague
Det-Pitt: Boyd 5-15; Kuhl 4-22
Tex-NY: Cashner 5-18; Flexen 1-2
Col-Clev: Marquez 5-18; Kluber 3-18
Mil-Min: Garza 4-16; Mejia 5-17
StL-KC: Wacha 3-20; Vargas 5-22

Umpires

National League
Mia-Wsh: Over is 13-3-1 in last 17 Gonzalez games.
SD-Cin: Last three Baker games stayed under total.
Chi-SF: Under is 6-1 in last seven Lentz games.

American League
Balt-LAA: Favorites are 17-2 in Nauert games this year.

Interleague
Det-Pitt: Under is 10-2-1 in last thirteen Fairchild games.
Mil-Min: Over is 4-1-1 in last six Barksdale games.
StL-KC: Under is 12-2-3 in last 17 Blakney games.

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 59-45 AL, favorites -$453
AL @ NL– 59-51 NL, favorites -$301
Total: 109-102 AL, favorites -$754

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 53-50-3
AL @ NL: Over 61-46-4
Total: Over 114-96-7

Armadillosports.com

Tuesday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Red Sox (6-0 past six overall, 9-3 past 12 at home)

The Red Sox hit the road for St. Petersburg, looking to ride Chris Sale to another win. However, he is looking to rebound after an uncharacteristically poor performance at home against the Indians last time out. Despite that ugly performance, the Red Sox still won 12-10 against Cleveland, one of their six wins in a row dating back to July 30. Boston's offense is averaging 6.7 runs per game during the six-game winning streak. The BoSox struggled in their most recent trip to the Tropicana, dropping three of four games while getting outscored 10-4 in the three losses. One of those outings was with Sale on the mound, as he was outpitched by Jacob Faria on July 6. Tampa Bay has won five of the past seven meetings between these rivals, but they roll out untested Austin Pruitt for this one. They're just 7-11 over the past 18 games dating back to July 19.

Coldest team: White Sox (0-6 past six games, 4-23 past 27 overall)

The White Sox continue to fumble right along, as they have dropped six in a row. It's their sixth losing streak of five or more games this season, and their third just since July 8. They're not a bad team to fade, although you certainly have to eat a lot of chalk most nights. That includes Tuesday night, as the Astros are between -210 and -220 at most shops as over early Tuesday morning despite the fact they're on the road. Chicago is averaging just 2.7 runs per game during their six-game skid, and only one of their losses has been decided by one or fewer runs. Meanwhile, Houston opens the series with the best road record in the majors at 38-15.

Hottest pitcher: Corey Kluber, Indians (9-3, 2.77 ERA)

The All-Star Kluber takes the ball for the interleague series home opener against the Rockies at Progressive Field. He ranks sixth in the majors in ERA at 2.77, just behind Boston's Chris Sale who will also be in action on Tuesday. He has racked up 172 strikeouts over 123 2/3 innings across 18 starts while yielding just 90 hits with 28 walks. The opposition is also hitting just .201 against him with a sparkling 0.95 WHIP, one of just four starts with a sub-1.00 in the category. The Klubot is even better at home, posting a 7-1 record with a 2.22 ERA across 77 innings over 11 starts while the opponent is hitting just .187 against him.

Coldest pitcher: Julio Teheran, Braves (7-9, 5.10 ERA)

Teheran has been extremely inconsistent this season, slipping two games under .500. He is tied for 10th in the majors, allowing 71 earned runs over 125 1/3 innings across 22 starts. The opponent is also hitting .261 against him this season. He limps into this one after recovering from a thigh injury, and if that's not bad enough he has been atrocious at home. He is 1-7 with a 6.91 ERA over 57 1/3 innings over 11 starts at SunTrust Park and the opponent is hitting .284 against him. He is actually a respectable 6-2 with a 3.57 ERA across his 11 road outings. He was tuned up in Philadelphia on July 28 in his first meeting against the Phillies, allowing eight earned runs and seven hits with three homers in just 4 2/3 innings in a loss.

Biggest UNDER run: Marlins (4-0-1 past five overall)

The 'under' for Miami lately has been a combination of poor offense and some outstanding pitching. Over the past seven outings Miami's offense has generated 3.6 runs per game while allowing just 3.3 runs per outing. That's a perfect combination for under victories at the betting window. The Nationals have played along with the 'under' trend, too, especially at home with the under 3-1 in the past four at Nationals Park. That includes Monday's series opener which went to the home team, 3-2.

Biggest OVER run: Blue Jays (6-2 past eight overall)

The 'over' has connected in six of the past eight outings, as their offense has come alive lately. The Toronto offense is on the move lately, averaging 6.2 runs per game over the past 10 outings. Their pitching has also gone south, allowing 6.5 runs during the same 10-game span. With almost 13 total runs per game, the 'over' is going to be a fairly common result. Lately there haven't been very many teams with that kind of consistency, or inconsistency, in terms of pitching.

Matchup to watch: Rockies vs. Indians

The Indians have opened up a three-game lead in the American League Central, and it's probably a good thing they're in the AL and not the National League. Cleveland has stumbled to a 5-13 record against the NL this season, including a two-game sweep in Coors Field back on June 6-7. The Rockies outscored the Indians 19-4 in the mini series, but that was also in the rarefied air of Denver. The Indians have won 12 of their past 15 games at Progressive Field, while the Rockies are just 5-17 over their past 22 forays away from the Mile High City.

Betcha didn’t know: The Mariners acquired All-Star 1B Yonder Alonso from the Athletics, and now he'll get a chance to face his former mates immediately. He is expected to make his team debut in the opener of the two-game set on Tuesday in Oakland. Alonso sits with a .266 average, career-high 22 homers and 49 RBI in 100 games with the Athletics this season. However, the power for the 30-year-old is completely stunning, as he entered the season with 39 homers through his first 664 major league games. His previous career high was nine homers, set back in 2012, so the power has come out of nowhere for the former University of Miami Hurricanes standout.

Biggest public favorite: Indians (-240) vs. Rockies

Biggest public underdog: Yankees (+125) at Blue Jays

Biggest line move: Indians (-215 to -240) vs. Rockies

MLB Picks of the Day
By Zabo Jones
Bangthebook.com

MLB Favorite of the day: St. Louis Cardinals -124

The Cardinals and the Royals are playing in Kansas City with Jason Vargas and Michael Wacha starting. The Royals have been given a lot of opportunities to move up in the AL Central with the Indians inability to pull away. Unfortunately, the Royals have been mirroring the Indians struggles in the last week, so they have actually lost some ground and are now 3 games back. The Cardinals also look like the playoffs are nearly a lost cause, unless the Brewers and Cubs both fall apart down the stretch.

Jason Vargas has been one of the more interesting pitchers in the MLB this season. ERA wise he has been one of the best pitchers in the MLB, so it’s not surprising to see his RA/9 WAR at 4.0 at this point in the season. But his underlying stats have basically remained the exact same. This isn’t to speak down to Vargas, he is a pretty good pitcher, and his durability has been extremely valuable for the Royals. His xFIP is at 4.81, largely helped by his very low homerun to flyball rate, which is at 9.4%. Often I can get over this, but his batted ball data looks really standard, with a 30% hard hit rate, so contact stats should remain relatively constant.

Michael Wacha has been a really good pitcher for the Cardinals, and maybe epitomizes what the ideal number 3 starter would look like on a playoff team. He has an ERA of 3.66, and an identical xFIP at 3.66. Wacha’s most marked improvement has been his strikeout rate, which has risen from around 8 per nine innings, up to 9 per nine innings. This has also corresponded with his breaking balls seeing improvement, with his curveball having a positive run value. The Cardinals playing on the road is tough to make me feel good taking the favorite, but Wacha is clearly a better pitcher than Vargas, and the Cardinals offense is also a bit better than the Royals.

MLB Underdog of the day: Oakland Athletics +108

The A’s and Mariners are going to be playing in Oakland with Kendall Graveman and Ariel Miranda starting. The A’s seemed to have officially started to sell of their present value to try to get future value, starting with their trade of Sonny Gray. The Mariners meanwhile are still making constant trades that makes it a bit harder to tell what their end goal is. But they are still only a game back of Tampa Bay and Kansas City for the wild card, so they still have a strong chance to make the playoffs this year.

Ariel Miranda is going to be starting for the Mariners against Oakland. Miranda has an ERA of 4.41 with an xFIP of 5.17. What’s surprising is that the difference between ERA and xFIP isn’t even larger given the fact that his BABIP is at .229. This is outrageous for any pitcher, but especially one with the batted ball profile of Miranda’s. His groundball rate is only 32.9%, while having a hard hit ball rate over 30%. Miranda is a major league caliber starter without a doubt, but I’m not sure if he’s ever going to be a very good pitcher.

Kendall Graveman is going to be starting for the A’s against Seattle. Coming into the season Graveman was one of my favorite pitchers in the major leagues, and I thought there was a chance that he would have something of a James Paxton type of season. Unfortunately though, Graveman has been battling injuries throughout the season, and now has only pitched 49 innings. Not only that, he hasn’t been very good in his 49 innings unfortunately with an ERA of 4.96, and an xFIP of 4.66. But it’s not worth ignoring that Oakland is playing at home, with at least an equal starting pitcher. Granted, Oakland’s offense is worse than Seattle’s, but I still feel good with Oakland as a value play in this game. I don’t have any totals picks for the day, so these are going to be the only two games I would take today.

MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

New York at Toronto (-125); Total: 9.5

We’ve seen quite a few movers in the market this morning. This game is one of them. The Yankees and Blue Jays open up a three-game set at Rogers Centre and the Jays are the preferred side. It’s kind of surprising that the market would look to fade the Yankees, full knowing that their dominant bullpen may come into play, but that’s what you get sometimes when CC Sabathia takes the hill. It’ll be JA Happ for the Jays.

In this battle of initials, Carsten Charles brings a respectable 3.81 ERA with a 4.40 FIP and a 4.41 xFIP to the table. He’s worked 99.1 innings this season while battling some injuries. Most of his peripherals look pretty decent, though his need to be finer on the corners has led to an increased walk rate over the last two seasons. Sabathia has allowed four runs over each of his last two starts. He hasn’t given up a lot of hits, they’ve just been sequenced well and he has allowed three home runs. Honestly, it looks to me like the market is fading Sabathia based on perception and a 0.6-run difference between his ERA and xFIP. I think he might be a little bit undervalued, to be honest. Keep in mind, you basically only need five innings from a Yankees starter right now.

James Anthony has a 3.92 ERA with a 4.40 FIP and a 3.97 xFIP. Happ hasn’t had much command this season relative to last season. Last season, Happ had a .268 BABIP against and a 1.02 HR/9 with an 11.1 percent HR/FB%. This season, his BABIP is up to .287, despite a 1.59 HR/9 with a 16.9 percent HR/FB%. He has also battled some injuries and has made just 15 starts. Happ had a pretty big blow-up against the Indians on July 23 and had the bare bones definition of a quality start on July 28 before dominating the awful Chicago White Sox last time out. He had 10 strikeouts in seven innings. Happ allowed eight of his 15 HR in his first five MLB starts of the season and then went four starts without allowing one before giving up seven in a stretch of four starts. He’s been very inconsistent this season.

Given Toronto’s bullpen concerns and the fact that I don’t see Happ as a huge upgrade to Sabathia, I think the Yankees are worth a play today now that this line has climbed. I feel like the Yankees are worth an investment in every game that looks like it could be close because of how strong that bullpen is. This looks like a game where Sabathia and Happ could cancel out and leave it up to the relievers, with the Yankees having an off day on Monday and a blowout win on Sunday to rest the key guys.

Texas at New York (-115); Total: 9

Operation Fade Andrew Cashner continues in earnest today as the Rangers visit Citi Field for some interleague shenanigans. Those that have been fading Cashner religiously (/waves) haven’t had much luck. Somehow, the right-hander has a 3.36 ERA with a 4.40 FIP and a 5.19 xFIP. He’s got a .275 BABIP against. He hasn’t allowed many home runs, with a 7.5 percent HR/FB%. He has a 76 percent strand rate, despite a 12.3 percent K% and a 9.6 percent BB%. Essentially, he’s proof that MLB teams don’t really put innings together with strings of hits. They look for a knock and a dong and that’s about it. Cashner isn’t giving up dingers, so he’s been able to seriously overachieve.

Chris Flexen has made two MLB starts and neither has gone well. He allowed four runs, three earned, on five hits with four walks and two strikeouts in his first one. He allowed five runs on eight hits with one walk and two strikeouts in his second one. This will be his first start at Citi Field and he’ll face an AL team playing under NL rules. When Flexen got called up, he was having a terrific year in Double-A with over a strikeout per inning and a 1.66/2.72/2.47 pitcher slash. That is not the case at the MLB level. It’s a big jump and Flexen has found that out the hard way.

Obviously I want to fade Cashner, but I’m not going to do it. I’ve learned my lesson. I won’t play on him either.

San Diego at Cincinnati (-150); Total: 9

The Reds have been steamed up into a -150 favorite at some shops while they host the Padres. I don’t have thoughts on this game, but just wanted to point out that Sal Romano has been bet into a -150 favorite. The Padres are having a pretty awful road trip, so that plays a role.

Milwaukee at Minnesota (-105); Total: 9.5

The Twins scratched out a couple of late runs against the Brewers bullpen to take down a 5-4 decision in last night’s series opener. That’s a tough loss for the Brewers to swallow and they’ve had a lot of those lately. They’ll try to get off the deck tonight with Matt Garza on the bump against Adalberto Mejia.

Garza has been surprisingly competent this year. Like all low-strikeout guys, his xFIP is much higher than his ERA, with a 3.68 ERA and a 4.76 xFIP, but he’s shown better control and command this season. Garza is hoping to get some money as a free agent this winter, so the timing couldn’t be better for him to have an 8.8 percent HR/FB% and a .274 BABIP against. He isn’t working particularly deep into games, but hasn’t allowed more than three runs over his last six starts. Since June 24, Garza has just 20 strikeouts against 11 walks in his 33 innings, but he’s only allowed two home runs and has a 2.45 ERA with a 3.72 FIP and a 5.19 xFIP. Regression should be coming for him, but he’s only allowed 15 hits over his last four starts, so he’s staying off the barrel and locating well. He’s also become a bit more of a fly ball guy lately, which is an interesting element, especially with the low HR rate.

Adalberto Mejia has a 4.30 ERA with a 4.85 FIP and a 4.96 xFIP. I understand the market looking to play against Garza’s recent performance and his season-long ERA/xFIP discrepancy, but this is a bad matchup for Mejia. The Brewers fare much better against lefties than they do against righties and Mejia has a 10.4 percent walk rate. He’s done a decent job to limit home runs, but he’s issued a lot of walks and the Brewers, for all of their offensive flaws, do have a redeeming quality in that they walk a lot.

I’ll be back on the Brewers today. They’ve shown a lot of resilience after tough beats and have kept losing streaks to a minimum for the most part. This is a spot where Garza may be a little bit undervalued because of the high ERA/xFIP discrepancy and because Mejia is a good matchup for the offense.

St. Louis (-125) at Kansas City; Total: 9

It’s not a big surprise to see the market looking to come in against Jason Vargas. It’s also not a big surprise to see the market coming in against the Royals. The Royals have dropped six of eight since their winning streak ended. The Cardinals are back to .500, which isn’t exactly cause for celebration, but they have been playing a little bit better of late. A big reason why is because Michael Wacha has been so strong this season.

Wacha Flocka Flame has a 3.66 ERA with a 3.47 FIP and a 3.66 xFIP. That kind of uniformity is fun for those of us that handicap. Wacha has the best strikeout rate of his career in a full season and his walk rate is pretty similar to past seasons. Wacha deserved a better fate last season with a 3.91 FIP and a 4.05 xFIP, but his 64.7 percent LOB% led to a 5.09 ERA. This season, Wacha’s LOB% is 73.5 percent, which is more like league average and he’s thrived as a result. Wacha only lasted four innings last time out against the Brewers, but that was an anomaly for him given how the rest of the season has gone.

Regression has found Jason Vargas. Vargas has a 3.10 ERA with a 4.09 FIP and a 4.81 xFIP. Vargas hasn’t missed many bats this season and had been living on a low BABIP and a high strand rate. He’s still got an 83 percent LOB%, but he has had some rockier starts lately. He allowed six runs in back-to-back starts on July 5 and July 17. Since then, he has only allowed six runs in 16 innings of work, but he also only has 10 strikeouts against five walks, so a lot of those red flags are clearly visible.

The Cardinals don’t hit lefties real well, so I won’t be laying this price, but I understand the line move for sure.

Los Angeles (-115) at Arizona; Total: 9.5

Zack Godley is underrated overall, but the betting market obviously sees his value. Godley and the Diamondbacks have been bet down with the Dodgers in town. The Dodgers are literally on pace to challenge the 2001 Seattle Mariners, who won 116 games. Los Angeles is having the most remarkable season in recent memory.

Maeda is having a pretty good season as well. He has a 3.70 ERA with a 3.80 FIP and a 4.04 xFIP in his 95 innings. The Dodgers have starting pitching for days. It’s ridiculous how many arms they have as we inch closer to the playoffs. Maeda has pretty good peripherals overall and has been solid. It’s Godley that stands out. It seemed like Arizona wasn’t quite sure how to use him, but he’s made 15 MLB starts this season with a 2.86 ERA, a 2.98 FIP, and a 3.21 xFIP. He’s struck out over a batter per inning, has a solid walk rate, and has stayed off the barrel extremely well. Godley is pounding the strike zone and has a 14 percent swinging strike rate, which is extremely good for starting pitchers. Godley doesn’t qualify for the ERA title because he doesn’t have enough innings, but his SwStr% would be tied with some guy named Clayton Kershaw for fifth if he did.

As much as I like Godley and as good as the Diamondbacks offense has been, I’m not sure I can step in front of the Dodgers now or at any point this season. They just don’t lose. They just find ways to win. At some point, they’ll probably hit some regression, but they’re slaughtering your bankroll this season if you’re betting against them.

Baltimore at Los Angeles (-115); Total: 9

I’m pretty sure I have not written about Parker Bridwell at all this season. Let’s change that, as the former Baltimore farmhand faces off against his former team. It will be recent acquisition Jeremy Hellickson for the O’s. We’ll start with Hellickson, though. He threw seven shutout innings in his Baltimore debut, proving once again that we know nothing about baseball. He has a 4.45 ERA with a 5.35 FIP and a 5.40 xFIP on the season overall in 119.1 innings of work. His low strikeout rate isn’t real advantageous to pitching in the American League.

Parker Bridwell basically has similar numbers to Hellickson, with a 3.20 ERA, a 4.97 FIP, and a 4.91 xFIP. Bridwell has an 86.9 percent LOB%, so he’s looking down the barrel of some serious regression. The Angels are just looking for any capable starter after losing several guys over the last couple of seasons to major surgeries and operations. Bridwell actually has pitched worse at Angel Stadium, albeit in small sample sizes, this season. He’s given up seven of his 10 home runs at home, where batters are slashing .311/.350/.500 in 140 plate appearances.

Bridwell looks like a regression candidate, but we’ve looked at a lot of guys like that lately that just haven’t regressed, like Ervin Santana, Andrew Cashner, and Jason Vargas. It’s just one of those years where what I normally do hasn’t worked out well and it’s hard to change because we’re just playing the percentages and the expectations. Maybe the Orioles will have better advance reports on a guy that they traded away. I don’t know what to expect from Hellickson in his second AL start, though he did upgrade defensively a bit going from Baltimore to Philadelphia, so maybe that’s a wave that he can ride.

I’ll look to fade Bridwell tonight because he has clear command concerns and the Orioles still have a lot of power.

Dodgers, Diamondbacks meet Tuesday
By: StatFox.com

The Dodgers will be going for their fifth straight win when they face the Diamondbacks on Tuesday.

It seems like nobody has been able to slow Los Angeles down, as the team is 18-3 in the second half of the season and was rolling heading into the All-Star break as well. At this point, it would be pretty much shocking if anybody were to finish with a better record than the Dodgers. Not only do they have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, but they can hit as well. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, have lost two straight coming into this game. Arizona was one of the best teams in the league heading into the All-Star break, but the Dbacks have cooled off since. They still would be in the playoffs if the season ended today, but they are only in the second wild card spot. A lot can still change from now until the end of the season. The starters in this Tuesday night game are set to be RHP Kenta Maeda (10-4, 3.79 ERA, 90 K) for Los Angeles and RHP Zack Godley (5-4, 2.86 ERA, 96 K) for Arizona. Both guys are solid, but it would not be surprising if there were a lot of runs scored in this one. One trend that must be mentioned when looking at this game is that Los Angeles is 57-17 against the money line versus catchers that allow 0.5 or fewer stolen bases per game this season.

The Dodgers are hoping to stay hot on Tuesday and they definitely have the right guy on the mound here. Maeda has been one of their best starters recently, as he has allowed only three earned runs in his past 22.0 innings of work. Maeda just pitched seven shutout innings in an Aug. 1 start against the Braves. He is feeling great after an absolutely miserable start to the season, and there couldn’t be a better time for him to be at his best for the Dodgers. On offense, 1B Cody Bellinger (.264 BA, 32 HR, 75 RBI) has remained hot for Los Angeles. He has homered four times in the past six games, and he has homered in two straight coming into this one. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him hit another here. Another guy to watch out for is 3B Justin Turner (.349 BA, 13 HR, 46 RBI), who has been one of the best hitters in baseball this season. Turner has done nothing but come up big for the Dodgers this year, and he is actually 4-for-9 with two homers over the past two games. He’s feeling confident and will look to make his presence felt on Tuesday.

The Diamondbacks can really use a win on Tuesday, but that obviously won’t be easy against a team like the Dodgers. Fortunately for Arizona, Zack Godley is pitching very well coming into this game. In Godley’s past two starts, the righty has pitched 13.0 innings of shutout baseball. He struck out 12 batters over those two outings and will be hoping to continue to miss bats in this one. It helps that he was excellent against the Dodgers in his most recent start against them, as he allowed only one earned run in 5.2 innings of work against Los Angeles on Jul. 5. Another performance like that would be huge for Arizona. Offensively, the Diamondbacks will be hoping that guys like 1B Paul Goldschmidt (.323 BA, 25 HR, 89 RBI) and OF J.D. Martinez (.289 BA, 22 HR, 54 RBI) can come up big in this game. Goldschmidt has raised his average from .317 to .323 over the past 10 games. He is seeing the ball well and should be able to get to Maeda here. Martinez, meanwhile, is batting just .226 with the Diamondbacks. Arizona needs him to be better than that moving forward.