MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Tuesday, July 18th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Brewers @ Pirates
Guerra is 0-3, 7.67 in his last six starts (over 7-3). Brewers are 2-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-5-2
Nova is 2-2, 4.38 in his last four starts; his last six starts stayed under. Pirates are 6-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-7-1
Milwaukee is 11-4 in its last 15 games, but lost last two; under is 8-3 in their last 11 games. Pittsburgh won eight of last ten games; under is 13-2 in their last 15 home games.
Cardinals @ Mets
Wacha is 3-0, 1.53 in his last three starts; over is 10-3 in his last 13 starts. St Louis is 2-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-6-2
Montero is 1-2, 6.27 in four starts this year (over 2-2). Mets are 1-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-3
Cardinals are 7-12 in last 19 road games; under is 5-0-1 in their last six games. New York won five of last eight home games; over is 4-1-1 in their last six home games.
Phillies @ Marlins
Velasquez is making his first start since May 30; he is 0-3, 6.56 in his last five starts (over 7-2-1). Phillies are 1-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-7
Conley is making his first start since May 8— he is 2-2, 8.46 in six starts this year (over 6-0). Miami is 1-2 in his home starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 2-3-1
Phillies lost eight of last ten games; under is 9-2-1 in their last 12 games. Miami lost five of its last six home games; under is 7-2-1 in their last ten home games.
Diamondbacks @ Reds
Ray is 6-1, 1.79 in his last nine starts; over is 4-0-2 in his last six. Arizona is 6-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-4-6
Romano is 1-1, 5.63 in two starts this year (under 2-0)— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-1
Arizona lost its last five games, is 8-7 in road series openers. Under is 4-1 in their last five games. Cincinnati lost its last five home games; they’re 8-8 in home series openers. Under is 5-2 in their last seven home games.
Cubs @ Braves
Lackey is 0-2, 6.75 in his last three starts (over 10-7). Cubs are 4-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-13-1
Newcomb is 0-2, 13.50 in his last two starts (under 4-2). Atlanta is 1-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-4
Cubs won their last five road games; under is 13-4 in their last 17 road games. Atlanta is 5-3 in its last eight games; over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
Padres @ Rockies
Lamet is 1-1, 4.70 in his last four starts; over is 5-1 in his last six. San Diego is 2-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-5
Senzatela is 2-2, 8.55 in his last five starts; over is 8-2 in his last ten. Colorado is 7-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-3-2
San Diego won seven of last 11 games; under is 9-2 in their last 11 road games. Rockies are 6-5 in their last 11 games; under is 10-5-1 in their last 16 games.
American League
Rangers @ Orioles
Ross is 2-1, 5.33 in five starts this year (over 3-2). Texas is 1-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-1-1
Bundy is 1-3, 8.85 in his last four starts; his last six starts all went over. Orioles are 5-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-8-2
Rangers won five of last eight games (under 7-0-1). Baltimore lost 8 of last 11 games- over is 5-3 in their last eight games.
Blue Jays @ Red Sox
Happ is 1-2, 4.86 in his last three starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Toronto is 2-3 in his road starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 4-7
Johnson is 2-0, 4.29 in four starts this year (over 2-2). Boston won both his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-1
Blue Jays lost three of last five games; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine games. Boston lost seven of last ten games; under is 7-1-2 in their last ten games.
New York @ Minnesota
Cessa is 0-3, 7.24 in his last three starts (under 3-0). New York is 0-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-3
Colon is making his Minnesota debut; he was 0-4, 18.00 in his last four starts for Atlanta. Over is 10-2 in his last 12 starts. Braves’ first 5-inning record with him: 3-10
New York lost seven of last ten games; under is 6-0-1 in their last seven games. Twins lost four of last six games; under is 10-6 in their last 16 games.
Mariners @ Astros
Gaviglio is 0-3, 6.35 in his last three starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six. Seattle is 2-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-5-1
Peacock is 4-0, 1.99 in his last four starts (under 5-4). Astros are 2-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-2
Mariners won their last five games; under is 4-2 in their last six. Houston is 8-4 in its last 12 games; over is 13-4 in their last 17 games.
Tigers @ Royals
Boyd is 0-4, 7.67 in his last six starts, last of which was May 31. Over is 3-1 in his last four starts. Tigers are 1-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-6-2
Wood allowed two runs in four IP (81 PT) in his first ’17 start— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-0
Detroit won four of last five games; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine road games. Kansas City lost six of its last seven games; under is 4-2-1 in their last seven home games.
Rays @ A’s
Snell is 0-3, 6.97 in his last four starts; over is 6-2 in his last eight starts. Tampa Bay is 1-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-5-1
Smith allowed three runs in six IP (97 PT) in his only ’17 start— Oakland’s first 5-inning record with him: 0-0-1
Rays won five of last six games; under is 5-2-1 in their last eight games. Oakland won seven of last ten games; over is 4-2-1 in their last seven home games.
Interleague
Dodgers @ White Sox
Kershaw is 7-0, 2.19 in his last seven starts (over 9-9-1). Dodgers are 7-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-2-3
Gonzalez is 1-8, 7.94 in his last nine starts; over is 8-2 in his last ten. White Sox are 3-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-7-1
Dodgers won their last nine games, are 6-1 in last seven road series openers. Under is 7-2-2 in their last 11 games. White Sox lost their last four games, are 5-8 in home series openers. Under is 4-1 in their last five games.
Nationals @ Angels
33-year old Jackson is making his first ’17 start; he is 93-114, 4.65 in 275 big league starts. He is 2-0, 1.77 in 17 AAA games this year (5 starts).
Chavez is 0-4, 4.79 in his last five starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight. Angels are 4-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-10-2
Washington won its last five games; they’re 10-5 in road series openers. Over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Angels are 4-9 in last 13 games, 2-8 in last 10 home series openers. Under is 6-1-1 in their last eight games.
Indians @ Giants
Clevinger is 3-0, 1.57 in his last four starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Indians are 5-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-3-2
Blach is 2-3, 7.49 in his last six starts; over is 6-2-1 in his last nine. Giants are 3-5 in his home starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 9-5
Indians lost four of their last five games; under is 9-5-2 in their last 14 games. Giants lost seven of last eight games; over is 4-1-1 in their last six games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Mil-Pitt: Guerra 4-6; Nova 10-8
StL-NY: Wacha 8-8; Montero 2-2
Phil-Mia: Velasquez 3-7; Conley 3-3
Az-Cin: Ray 11-6; Romano 1-1
Chi-Atl: Lackey 8-9; Newcomb 2-4
SD-Col: Lamet 5-3; Senzatela 10-5
American League
Tex-Balt: Ross 3-2; Bundy 9-9
Tor-Bos: Happ 4-7; Johnson 4-0
NY-Min: Cessa 0-3; Colon 0-0 (5-8 )
Sea-Hst: Gavigvlio 6-4; Peacock 7-2
Det-KC: Boyd 4-7; Wood 1-0
TB-A’s: Snell 2-7; Smith 1-0
Interleague
LA-Chi: Kershaw 17-2; Gonzalez 5-8
Wsh-LA: Jackson 0-0; Chavez 8-10
Clev-SF: Clevinger 6-5; Blach 6-8
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning
National League
Mil-Pitt: Guerra 2-10; Nova 6-18
StL-NY: Wacha 3-16; Montero 1-4
Phil-Mia: Velasquez 3-10; Conley 3-6
Az-Cin: Ray 6-17; Romano 0-2
Chi-Atl: Lackey 10-17; Newcomb 2-6
SD-Col: Lamet 3-8; Senzatela 6-15
American League
Tex-Balt: Ross 3-5; Bundy 2-18
Tor-Bos: Happ 2-11; Johnson 2-4
NY-Min: Cessa 1-3; Colon 5-13
Sea-Hst: Gavigvlio 3-10; Peacock 1-9
Det-KC: Boyd 3-11; Wood 0-1
TB-A’s: Snell 1-9; Smith 0-1
Interleague
LA-Chi: Kershaw 4-19; Gonzalez 4-13
Wsh-LA: Jackson 0-0; Chavez 3-18
Clev-SF: Clevinger 1-11; Blach 4-14
Umpires
National League
Mil-Pitt: Over is 10-6 in Muchlinski games this season.
StL-NY: Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Fairchild games.
Phil-Mia: Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Layne games.
Chi-Atl: Over is 12-1-1 in last 14 Gonzalez games.
SD-Col: Under is 7-2 in last nine Kulpa games.
American League
Tex-Balt: Over is 7-2 in last nine Gorman games.
Tor-Bos: Over is 10-6 in last sixteen Everitt games.
NY-Min: Three of last four Barry games stayed under.
Sea-Hst: Under is 8-2 in last ten Bellino games.
Det-KC: Under is 9-6 in last fifteen Cuzzi games.
TB-A’s: Under is 6-2 in last eight BWelke games.
Interleague
Clev-SF: Under is 7-3-1 in last 11 Drake games.
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 45-35 AL, favorites -$793
AL @ NL– 47-45 NL, favorites -$290
Total: 88-80 AL, favorites -$1,083
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 46-37-2
AL @ NL: Over 48-38-3
Total: Over 94-75-5
Armadillosports.com
MLB Picks of the Day
By Zabo Jones
Bangthebook.com
MLB Favorite of the day: Arizona Diamondbacks -131
The Diamondbacks and Reds are going to be playing at Great American Ballpark on Tuesday night with Robbie Ray and Sal Romano starting. The Diamondbacks look like a lock to make the playoffs, but I think they’ll likely be pretty quiet at the deadline, with not much to buy for with such uncertainty in a wildcard game. Meanwhile, the Reds have been slowing down after there really good start to the season at 15 games below .500.
Robbie Ray has been one of the most transfixing players in the MLB for a number of seasons now. I don’t think there was any doubt that he could be a useful player for a good team, but I think that there was a lot of doubt that he was going to be a starting pitcher. Robbie Ray has an ERA of 2.97, but his peripherals are a bit worse with an xFIP of 3.72. Where Ray makes his mark on a game is by having a dominant strikeout rate, with 11.97 strikeouts per nine innings. Of course to go with the amazing strikeout rate has been the bad walk rate with 4.42 walks per nine innings. This combination of course leads to a high pitch count quickly, but with the Diamondbacks bullpen, it’s worked out pretty well.
Starting for the Reds is going to be an interesting player named Sal Romano. Romano doesn’t have much name recognition, and he doesn’t have a great arsenal, but he does have one great weapon: his fastball. Romano’s fastball has an average velocity at nearly 96, and this helps lead to a great strikeout rate, of 1 per inning. He throws this fastball about two thirds of the time, and it’s helped lead to some success in his short stints in the majors. Ultimately though, I’m a big fan of Robbie Ray, and the entire Diamondbacks offense, so I like Arizona quite a bit in this game.
MLB Underdog of the day: Philadelphia Phillies +126
For reasons that I can’t figure out, I think that I’m higher on the Phillies than almost anyone else. There aren’t too many people who thought that the Phillies were going to be the worst team in the MLB either. The success of the Dodgers and Astros has left room at the bottom of the league for some terrible records as well, and the Phillies are on pace for about replacement level wins. But regardless, Velasquez is still an interesting pitcher for Philadelphia, and the Marlins aren’t especially good either.
This is going to be Vince Velasquez’s first start after returning for the 10 day DL. Vince Velasquez has been by far the most disappointing pitcher on the Phillies roster. There was a time when people thought that he was going to be a really useful pitcher for the Phillies for a long period of time. So far though, he hasn’t been great. He has an ERA of 5.58, but the peripherals are a fair amount better with an xFIP at 4.22. It’s easy to see why there is such a difference when you see that he’s giving up 2 homeruns per nine innings. That’s a huge problem, but it’s not one that I think is likely to continue, especially against Miami where the only serious homerun threat is Stanton.
Starting for the Marlins is going to be Adam Conley. Conley has only pitched 28 innings so far this year, and while he hasn’t been great in that limited time, there’s not much to glean from that limited time. What makes me nervous about Conley is how much he struggles to throw strikes, with a career average walk rate of 4 per 9 innings. Conley isn’t a terrible pitcher by any means, but I don’t see any great reason to make the Marlins such heavy favorites in this game.
Colorado Rockies/San Diego Padres Under 11.5
Coors Field is obviously the most extreme environment in the MLB, and the Rockies have traditionally tried to optimize their team by getting a lot of great hitters. This season though, they have changed their strategy and focused largely on defensive positional players, and pitchers who have effective 4-seam fastballs that aren’t largely affected by the elevation in Colorado. But what I don’t think people have realized in the process of the Rockies success this season is just how bad their offense is. The Rockies are last in the MLB in wRC+ at 80. It just so happens that their opponent, ranks 29th in the MLB in wRC+ at 81. This game involves the two worst offenses in the MLB, so even though the game is in Colorado, I feel fine taking the under with such bad offenses.
Tuesday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Nationals (5-0 past five games, 9-2 past 11 overall)
The Nationals completed a four-game sweep of their wrap-around series with the Reds in Cincinnati on Monday afternoon, outscoring the Redlegs by a 35-12 score. Now, they'll try their hand at interleague play in Southern California against the Angels and they'll really put the winning streak to the test with retread Edwin Jackson on the bump. The veteran right-hander appeared in three relief appearances for the Orioles this season, allowing four earned runs and 11 hits over five innings. Jackson won just two of his final eight starts last season for San Diego.
Coldest team: Diamondbacks (0-5 past five games, 1-8 past nine overall)
The Diamondbacks have really the skids lately, dropping five in a row. They've hit rock-bottom with a three-game sweep in Atlanta. Now, their road trip continues in Cincinnati. They dropped two of three to the Reds just before the All-Star break, so they're certainly looking to exact a little revenge. Arizona has dropped six in a row on the road, although they're 7-3 over their past 10 road games against a right-handed starter. And they send All-Star Robbie Ray to the mound. Arizona is 5-0 over his past five starts against a team with a losing overall record, 4-1 in his past five outings on the road and 7-2 over his past nine assignments overall. The D-Backs have won six of their past eight trips to Great American Ball Park on the banks of the Ohio River.
Hottest pitcher: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers (14-2, 2.18 ERA)
The All-Star Kershaw takes the hill at Guaranteed Rate Park on the south side of Chicago in search of his 15th victory. He has posted a 14-2 record, 2.18 ERA and 159 strikeouts through 132 1/3 innings across 19 starts so far this season while holding the opposition to a .195 batting average. He also sports an impressive 0.88 WHIP, second-best in the majors behind Washington's Max Scherzer. Los Angeles has won four straight interleague games, six of the past seven on the road and 42 of 53 overall. They're even better with their ace, going 7-0 in Kershaw's past seven interleague assignments, 6-0 in his past six against the AL Central and 45-9 across his past 54 starts overall. Dominance.
Coldest pitcher: John Lackey, Cubs (5-9, 5.20 ERA)
The veteran Lackey gets another chance to prove himself, but so far this season has been a complete disaster. He sits four games under .500 on the season through 17 starts, issuing 30 walks with 86 strikeouts and a dismal 1.33 WHIP across 98 2/3 innings. Opponents are having moderate success against him, posting a .264 average with 101 hits, better than one per frame. Most of the damage has come via the home run, as Lackey has served up 24 bombs, tied for second-most in the majors and most overall in the NL. The Cubs are just 1-4 over his past five road starts and 0-4 in his past four tries against NL East foes. The good news is Chicago will be facing a left-handed starter, and they're 7-0 in their past seven tries against southpaws.
Biggest UNDER run: Angels (6-0-2 past eight games, 13-3-2 past 18 overall)
The 'under' has been a solid play in Angels games lately, as their offense has been really struggling and their pitching staff has been doing a good job. The Angels welcomed Mike Trout (thumb) back to the lineup after the All-Star break, but so far he hasn't made much of a difference. They're averaging just 2.7 runs per game in three outings since returning, and 2.6 runs per game over the past 17 outings overall. While they cut break out against journeyman Edwin Jackson on Tuesday, they have to face Gio Gonzalez (8-4, 2.66 ERA) on Wednesday in what might be another slam-dunk 'under' result.
Biggest OVER run: Astros (10-2-1 past 13 games overall)
The final two games of Houston's series against Minnesota resulted in a pair of 'under' plays, but it was right back to big offensive numbers in the series opener against Seattle. The teams combined for 16 runs in a 9-7 loss to the Mariners on Tuesday. With Sam Gaviglio against Brad Peacock on Tuesday, it's not exactly Sandy Koufax against Warren Spahn, so another 'over' result could follow. The over is 8-3 in Houston's past 11 at home, 12-3-1 in their past 16 overall and 7-1 when facing a starting pitcher with a WHIP over 1.30. While the under is 11-5 across Peacock's past 16 outings overall, the over is a perfect 4-0 in Houston's past four home games against a team with a losing road mark.
Matchup to watch: Athletics vs. Rays
The Rays have looked quite rejuvenated since the All-Star break. They're 3-1 in four games since the break, and 5-1 over their past six overall. Pitching has been a major part of their success, as Tampa Bay's pitching staff is allowing just 2.2 runs per game across the past six outings. As you can imagine, that's good for the 'under', too, going 4-1-1 during the span. The Athletics fired out of the chute with a three-game sweep of the Indians, but they fell back to Earth with a 3-2 loss in the series opener against Tampa Bay. Like Tampa, the A's have been getting quite the performance on the mound lately. Oakland's staff is allowing just 2.7 runs per game over the past six outings, so an 'under' looks mighty attractive on Tuesday.
Betcha didn’t know: Fellow handicapper Kevin Rogers, who can be followed on Twitter at VIROGERS, pointed out that Tuesday's Arizona-Cincinnati matchup features Ray-Romano, perhaps one of the funniest matchups on the board this season. It's not quite Fister-Furbush from a couple of seasons ago, or Dickey-Wang, but Ray-Romano is pretty good. There have been some quality pitcher-catcher combinations over the years, such as Buck-Hunter, Lyon-Treanor, Ellis-Eiland, May-Flowers and Peavy-Herrmann, just in case you were wondering.
Biggest public favorite: Dodgers (-255) at White Sox
Biggest public underdog: Rays (+110) at Athletics
Biggest line move: Braves (+130 to -105) vs. Cubs
Tuesday's Best Bet
VegasInsider.com
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
Odds: Seattle (+166), Houston (-176); Total set at 9.5
The Mariners and Astros had a wild opener to this series last night as it was a back-and-forth slugfest that needed extra innings to be decided. The slugging didn't stop there either as Seattle opened the 10th inning with a pair of HR's to eventually earn a 9-7 victory over the AL West leaders and would love to clinch a series win tonight.
These games are much more important to the Mariners who are in the thick of the Wild Card chase, as opposed to Houston who already has the AL West division locked up. That motivation angle is something to always consider with Houston games going forward, and with their All-Star shortshop Carlos Correa leaving last night's game early with a hand injury and a potential trip to the DL looming, the health angle is another one to consider with the Astros over the next few months.
Staying healthy for a deep playoff run is Houston's primary concern these days and although it's more of a “big picture” type deal, bettors can definitely use it to their advantage in the right spots. Is tonight one of those spots?
Although I've already touched on a few angles that could work negatively for Houston tonight, they are simply additional factors behind the basis of this ML play on Seattle. The Mariners have come out of the break on fire with a 4-0 SU record and they've done it despite some mediocre performances from their starting pitchers.
Tonight's starter Sam Gaviglio had a rough ending to the first half of his season with an 0-3 SU run over his final three starts (one of those vs. Houston), but the time off should have helped and he'll likely get much more support from his teammates who are playing much better at the moment.
Even in the 5-2 loss to Houston that Gaviglio started at the end of June, he didn't pitch horribly as he went six full innings in the start, and that's something only James Paxton can say he's done for Seattle since they returned from last week's time off. If Gaviglio can accomplish a similar feat tonight and the Mariners offense continues to cash in on their opportunities, they'll definitely have a better chance to win this evening than this line suggests.
Speaking of that Seattle offense, they get to face a guy in Brad Peacock who has filled in admirably for Houston this year with all their pitching injuries. However, Peacock's “average” numbers are continually masked by the astronomical run support he's gotten from his teammates this year.
Despite what the 7-1 SU record and 2.63 ERA suggests on Peacock, he's nowhere near as good as that and if it weren't for the 8.3 runs/game he's gotten in support, things would be a lot worse. Houston has scored 16 and 19 runs alone in his last two outings and when your teammates have clinched the game early like that, strong pitching statistics are sure to follow.
I say that because when a pitcher is up big, he can simply go out there and attack the strikezone and force the guys to hit it all over the park. Gone are the worries of trying to pick corners on key guys in tight spots – which leads to walks – and there are no stressful moments for the guy on the mound. That's the type of ease Peacock has been pitching with his last few outings and it's definitely worked to his advantage.
However, with the way the Mariners have been playing of late, and the likelihood of Correa on the bench regardless of a DL spot or not, I wouldn't be so sure Peacock will get that run support he's thrived on this year. If that's the case, look for him to find himself in some high leverage situations that he hasn't experienced in awhile and hopefully for the sake of this wager will be his undoing.
Both of Houston's losses with Peacock on the hill this year have come at home against division rivals, and Seattle's got a great chance to add their name to that list tonight.
Best Bet: Seattle +166
Blue Jays, Red Sox meet
By: StatFox.com
The Blue Jays will be hoping to win back-to-back games against the Red Sox when the teams meet in Boston on Tuesday.
Toronto defeated Boston 4-3 on Monday night, and the Jays have now won six of their past 10 games. While they might be sitting in last in the AL East, this is an explosive team that can’t be counted out in the postseason race. Toronto can easily put together a nice winning streak, and perhaps that starts here. The Sox, meanwhile, will be hoping to win this game in order to stretch their lead in the AL East. They have a real opportunity to create some separation in coming weeks, and they need to take advantage. The starters in this Tuesday night matchup are set to be LHP J.A. Happ (3-6, 3.54 ERA, 60 K) for Toronto and LHP Brian Johnson (2-0, 4.29 ERA, 17 K) for Boston. One trend that favors the Red Sox in this game is the fact that the Jays are a lousy 4-12 against the money line after batting .200 or worse over a three game span this season. Boston is also an insane 12-1 after two or more consecutive losses on the year.
The Blue Jays are looking to win their second straight game and they’ll need Happ to be sharp in this one. He really struggled his last time out, allowing two earned runs and six runs total in only 4.0 innings of work against the Astros on Jul. 9. Prior to that, Happ had allowed two or fewer earned runs in three straight starts. Toronto needs him to pitch more like that guy and less like the one that showed up against Houston last start. It’s worth noting that Happ has not yet faced the Sox this season, but he was 2-0 with a 2.33 ERA in three starts against Boston last year. Offensively, the Jays are going to need a lot more out of 3B Josh Donaldson (.250 BA, 9 HR, 28 RBI) moving forward. Donaldson is usually one of the more dangerous hitters in baseball, but that hasn’t been the case this season. He was injured to open up the season and has not found his footing. The Jays need him to do that very soon.
The Sox will be counting on Brian Johnson to hold his own in a matchup with the Jays on Tuesday, but the lefty has not been very good recently. In Johnson’s last seven innings of work, he has allowed six earned runs and three homers. He must do a better job of avoiding the long ball moving forward, as five homers in only 21.0 innings of work is unacceptable. That could also get him into trouble against a Blue Jays team that has some explosive hitters in the lineup. On offense, it’d be big for the Sox if OF Mookie Betts (.274 BA, 17 HR, 56 RBI) can stay hot. He is 5-for-12 with a homer and three RBI over the past three games. It’s likely that he’ll have a strong second half of the year, as he struggled a bit in the first half and is far too good of a player to be down for a whole season.
MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com
Double-Play Picks
Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds (+130, 9.5)
A lot has been made this season about the crazy home/road split of the Diamondbacks. Their 33-15 record at Chase Field puts them near the top of Major League Baseball in home winning percentage, but they are a very ordinary 20-24 on the road. There has, however, been one great exception to their struggles away from home...Robbie Ray.
The Diamondbacks have won six of Robbie Ray's eight road starts this season and he owns a ridiculous 1.34 ERA and a WHIP of 0.99 away from Chase Field. Probably his most impressive road stat thus far in 2017 is his opponent's on base percentage which currently sits at .257 - compared to .341 at home.
The Reds will run rookie righty Sal Romano out to the mound today. Romano will be making his third start of his career and his second start since returning from the minor leagues just before the All-Star break. He was decent in Denver allowing only two earned runs in five innings of work in his last outing.
Romano may be able to keep this game close early on, but eventually he will have to hand the ball over to a Reds' bullpen that has allowed 49 home runs this season and owns an ERA of 4.09.
The Reds have lost five in a row at home and are exactly the cure for what has been ailing the Diamondbacks on the road.
Pick: D-Backs -145
Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves (-105, 9.5)
Maybe Cubs manager Joe Maddon had a plan when he didn’t select any of his players to compete in the All-Star game, because the defending World Champs have looked great after getting a little extra R&R last week.
Chicago looks to win their fifth straight ball game coming out of the All-Star break when they visit the Braves for the second of their three-game set in Atlanta on Tuesday night.
The Cubbies bats in particular have woken up to start the second half, platting 7.8 runs per game in their first four games back and they’ll have the opportunity to score a few more when they go up against Braves’ rookie left-hander Sean Newcomb.
First of all, Chicago is 7-0 in their last seven games against southpaw starters, scoring 7.3 runs per game in those contests.
Second, Newcomb got his career off to a good start, going 1-2 with a 1.48 ERA, but that was against the likes of the Mets, Marlins, Giants and Padres. In his last two starts against the Astros and Nationals, he has pitched to a 13.51 ERA.
The Cubs have the ability to turn it on in the second half and as long as John Lackey doesn’t implode don’t expect them to slow down on Tuesday night.
Pick: Cubs -118
Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season To Date: 91-79-8
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers (14-2, 2.18 ERA, $1,260)
Clayton Kershaw...so good. What can we say about him that hasn't already been said? If the value wasn't sucked out of his start today he would have definitely been one of our Double-Play Picks, but -175 on a road runline is a bit much for our liking.
Kershaw leads all MLB starting pitchers in betting money earned with $1260 through 19 starts (team win/loss 17-2) and he has been at the top of his game over his last four outings with only two earned runs allowed (0.62 ERA), a WHIP of 0.69, and 44 strikeouts to go along with only five walks.
Kershaw and the Dodgers are massive road chalk today at -335 in Chicago against the White Sox.
Slumping: Bartolo Colon, Minnesota Twins (2-8, 8.14 ERA, $-111)
The Atlanta Braves really wanted their Bartolo Colon experiment to work so they could flip him for a prospect or a draft pick at the trade deadline. Alas, he was so bad as a Brave that they simply couldn't justify holding on to him with no trade value attached. Well, he's been picked up by the Minnesota Twins and makes his not-so-anticipated Twins debut tonight against Aaron Judge and the Bronx Bombers.
His last four starts with the Braves were absolutely disastrous with an ERA of 13.80 and a WHIP of 2.73. Colon was only able to fan nine batters in those four outings and allowed a ridiculous 32 hits in 15 innings of work. It must be really frustrating to solid young pitchers in the minor leagues who are begging for their shot, to see someone like Colon taking up a major league roster spot.
Colon and the Twins are +120 underdogs at home this evening against the Yankees.
Tuesday's Top Trends
* Over is 21-4-1 in Michael Wacha's last 26 road starts. Cardinals/Mets Total: 9.5.
* The Los Angeles Dodgers are 45-9 in Clayton Kershaw's last 54 starts. -335 @ White Sox.
* Under is 9-1 in the San Diego Padres' last 10 road games. Padres/Rockies Total: 11.5.
* The San Francisco Giants are 2-11 in their last 13 home games vs. a right-handed starter. +125 vs Clevinger and the Indians.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
There is a slight chance of a brief thunderstorm at Fenway Park in Boston this evening where the Red Sox will be entertaining the Blue Jays for Game 2 of their series.
Rain may be more of a threat this evening in Minneapolis were the Twins are scheduled to take on the Yankees. Thunderstorms and heavy rains are expected this afternoon and extending into the early evening. The systems may clear the area by game time but there is also a strong possibility of a delayed start.
There will be hitter's winds of about 10 miles per hour blowing out to left-center field tonight in Queens where the Mets will take on the Cardinals (total: 9.5) and in Kansas City where the Royals will battle the Tigers (total: 10.5). There are also West Coast winds in the forecast blowing out to center field in Oakland at 12-15 miles per hour (Ray/A's total: 9) and in San Francisco at 15-18 miles per hour (Indians/Giants total: 8 ).
Ump Of The Day
Chad Fairchild will be calling balls and strikes this evening in Queens where the Mets will be hosting the Cardinals. Fairchild is an Under umpire at 10-7 to the Under this season and the Under has actually cashed in eight of his last nine games behind the plate.
Another factor to consider is the size of the total. Tonight's game currently has a betting total of 9.5 and Under is 8-3 this season in games called by Fairchild with a closing total of 9 or higher.