MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, July 25th, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Brewers @ Nationals
Davies is 4-0, 3.73 in his last five starts; over is 6-2 in his last eight. Milwaukee is 7-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-6-4

Jackson allowed two runs in seven IP in his first ’17 start, a 4-3 win in Anaheim. Nationals’ first 5-inning record with him: 0-0-1

Brewers lost seven of last eight games; under is 7-2 in their last nine. Milwaukee is 4-8 in its last 12 road series openers. Washington is 8-2 in its last ten games, 10-6 in home series openers. Under is 5-1 in their last six games.

Rockies @ Cardinals
Gray is 3-1, 5.91 in seven starts this year (over 3-3-1). Colorado is 3-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-2-1

Lynn is 3-1, 2.37 in his last five starts; his last four start stayed under. St Louis is 4-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-9-1

Rockies won six of last eight games; over is 9-1 in their last ten. St Louis lost four of its last six games; under is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games.

Braves @ Diamondbacks
Foltynewicz is 4-0, 2.64 in his last five starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. Atlanta 5-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-6-4

Walker is 0-1, 5.18 in his last four starts; his last three stayed under. Arizona is 5-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-6-2

Braves lost six of last eight games; over is 5-0-1 in their last six. Arizona lost four of last six home games; under is 6-2-1 in their last nine.

Mets @ Padres
Lugo is 1-0, 2.70 in his last two starts; over is 4-1-1 in his last six starts. New York is 3-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-2

Chacin is 3-0, 2.35 in his last four starts; under is 5-1-1 in his last seven. San Diego is 6-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-11-2

Mets won five of last six games; under is 5-3-1 in their last nine road games. San Diego won three of last five games; over is 8-2-1 in their last 11.

Pirates @ Giants
Taillon is 3-1, 2.57 in his last five starts; his last six starts stayed under. Pirates are 4-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-4-3

Giants are 0-6 in Bumgarner starts this year; he is 0-4, 0-4, 3.57 (under 3-2-1). SF is 0-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-5

Pirates are 13-4 in last 17 games; under is 18-5-1 in their last 24 games. Giants lost four of last five games; over is 8-4-1 in their last 13 games.

American League

A’s @ Blue Jays
Gray is 3-0, 1.96 in his last three starts (over 11-4). Oakland is 1-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-5

Valdez began the year with Oakland; he started one game, allowing three runs in four IP (76 PT) in a 9-6 win over Seattle April 20. This is his 4th MLB start overall. He is 3-3, 3.23 in 10 AAA starts this season.

Oakland lost five of last seven games; over is 12-7-1 in their last 20 road games. Toronto lost five of last seven games; over is 5-3 in their last eight home games.

Angels @ Indians
Chavez is — their first 5-inning record with him:

Clevinger is — their first 5-inning record with him:

Angels won three of last four games, are 7-9 in road series openers. Under is 8-1-1 in their last ten home games. Cleveland won seven of last eight home games; over is 3-2 in their last five overall. Tribe is 7-9 in home series openers.

Royals @ Tigers
Duffy is 2-3, 5.40 in his last five starts (over 4-1). Royals are 3-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-7-3

Fulmer is 4-1, 4.05 in his last five starts (over 3-1-1). Detroit is 7-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-7-2

Royals won their last six games; under is 9-3-1 in their last 13. Detroit lost four of last six games; over is 5-3 in their last eight.

Orioles @ Rays
Miley is 1-4, 9.33 in his last six starts (under 4-2). Orioles split his ten road starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 8-11-1

Faria is 4-1, 2.70 in eight starts this year; under is 3-1 in his last four. Rays are 2-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-1-2

Orioles won six of last eight games; over is 11-4 in their last 15. Tampa Bay lost its last five games; under is 8-3-1 in their last 12.

Boston @ Seattle
Pomeranz is 4-0, 2.73 in his last five starts; over is 6-2-1 in his last nine. Boston is 4-1 in his last five road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-8

Hernandez is 2-1, 2.00 in his last three starts (under 3-0). Seattle is 4-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-5-1

Boston lost four of last five games (over 3-2). Mariners won eight of their last 11 games; under is 8-4 in their last 12.

Interleague

White Sox @ Cubs
Rodon is 1-3, 7.08 in four starts this year (over 2-1-1). White Sox split their four road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-3

Lackey is 2-2, 3.81 in his last five starts; under is 6-3 in his last nine. Cubs are 4-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-13-1

White Sox are 1-8 since All-Star break; under is 5-1 in their last six road games. Cubs are 8-2 since All-Star break; under is 6-2 in their last eight games.

Astros @ Phillies
Morton is 2-1, 4.38 in his last four starts; over is 7-2-1 in his last ten. Houston is 2-2 in his road starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 7-4-2

Pivetta is 2-1, 5.92 in his last four starts; under is 5-3 in his last eight. Phillies are 1-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-7-2

Astros are 7-4 in last 11 games; over is 10-1 in their last 11 road games. Philly won four of last six games; over is 4-1 in their last five.

Cincinnati @ New York
Castillo is 1-3, 3.86 in six starts this year (over 3-3). Reds are 1-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-3

Montgomery is 0-1, 6.41 in his last four starts; over is 6-1-1 in their last eight. New York is 4-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-8-1

Reds lost nine of last 11 games; under is 6-2 in their last eight games. Cincy is 6-10 in road series openers. New York won three of last four games; they’re 8-6 in home series openers. Under is 10-2-1 in their last 13 games.

Marlins @ Rangers
Straily is 3-1, 3.02 in his last seven starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Miami is 5-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-7-1

Hamels is 2-1, 2.96 in his last four starts (over 7-2-1). Texas is 3-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-0-2

Miami won eight of last ten road games; under is 7-2 in their last nine games overall. Texas won three of its last four games; under is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games.

Twins @ Dodgers
Berrios is 2-2, 7.36 in his last five starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Minnesota lost his last three road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-4-1

Maeda is 4-1, 2.81 in his last five starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Dodgers are won his last six home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-5-1

Twins are 4-8 in last 12 games; under is 6-3 in their last nine games. Dodgers are 17-3 in last 20 games; over is 5-0-1 in their last six games.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
Mil-Wsh: Davies 13-7; Jackson 1-0
Col-StL: Gray 6-1; Lynn 9-11
Atl-Az: Foltynewicz 11-7 (8-0 last 8 ); Walker 10-5
NY-SD: Lugo 5-2; Chacin 11-9
Pitt-SF: Taillon 7-6; Bumgarner 0-6

American League
A’s-Tor: Gray 8-7; Valdez 0-0
KC-Det: Duffy 7-8; Fulmer 11-8
LAA-Clev: Chavez 8-11; Clevinger 6-6
Balt-TB: Miley 10-10; Faria 6-2
Bos-Sea: Pomeranz 13-6; Hernandez 5-6

Interleague
Chi-Chi: Rodon 1-3; Lackey 9-9
Hst-Phil: Morton 8-5; Pivetta 4-9
Cin-NY: Castillo 2-4; Montgomery 7-11
Mia-Tex: Straily 11-9; Hamels 5-5
Minn-LA: Berrios 9-4; Maeda 11-4

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
Mil-Wsh: Davies 8-20; Jackson 1-1
Col-StL: Gray 1-7; Lynn 6-20
Atl-Az: Foltynewicz 4-18; Walker 6-15
NY-SD: Lugo 2-7; Chacin 8-20
Pitt-SF: Taillon 2-13; Bumgarner 1-6

American League
A’s-Tor: Gray 2-15; Valdez 0-0
KC-Det: Duffy 3-15; Fulmer 6-19
LAA-Clev: Chavez 4-19; Clevinger 1-12
Balt-TB: Miley 8-20; Faria 2-8
Bos-Sea: Pomeranz 5-19; Hernandez 6-11

Interleague
Chi-Chi: Rodon 2-4; Lackey 10-18
Hst-Phil: Morton 2-13; Pivetta 5-13
Cin-NY: Castillo 2-6; Montgomery 4-18
Mia-Tex: Straily 5-20; Hamels 4-10
Minn-LA: Berrios 3-13; Maeda 6-15

Umpires

National League
Col-StL: Three of last four Culbreth games went over.
Atl-Az: Five of last six Whitson games went over total.
NY-SD: Last three Hallion games went over the total.
Pitt-SF: Last three Meals games went over the total.

American League
A’s-Tor: Over is 5-3 in last eight Timmons games.
KC-Det: Six of last nine Wolf games stayed under.
Balt-TB: Over is 4-0-3 in last seven Wendelstedt games.
Bos-Sea: Over is 8-3 in last eleven Demuth games.

Interleague
Chi-Chi: Last three Barksdale games went over total.
Hst-Phil: Over is 8-3 in last eleven Iassogna games.
Mia-Tex: Last four Drake games stayed under the total.
Minn-LA: Four of last six LBarrett games stayed under.

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 47-39 AL, favorites -$857
AL @ NL– 52-48 NL, favorites -$866
Total: 95-91 AL, favorites -$1,723

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 47-42-2
AL @ NL: Over 53-40-3
Total: Over 100-82-5

Armadillosports.com

MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Milwaukee at Washington (-125); Total: 10

You know Edwin Jackson is bad when the betting market is taking Zach Davies in a matchup against the offensive juggernaut that is the Washington Nationals. It’s kind of crazy that it has come to this for a Washington team blowing away everybody else in its division, but Jackson will make his second straight start in this matchup. Jackson worked 11 games in relief and made one start for the Orioles before the Nationals picked him up. They sent him to their Triple-A affiliate and worked him out as a starter.

Jackson hasn’t been an effective starter in MLB since 2013, when his 4.98 ERA overshadowed a 3.79 FIP and a 3.86 xFIP. Because baseball often makes no sense, Jackson only allowed two runs on three hits over seven innings against the Angels after allowing seven runs in three relief appearances totaling five innings. This isn’t an easy assignment for Jackson, per se, but the Brewers haven’t been very consistent on offense for a while now.

For frame of reference, Zach Davies, who has a 4.76 ERA, a 4.89 FIP, and a 4.65 xFIP, is getting steamed against the Nationals. People have been tripping over each other to fade the Brewers with the Cubs breathing down their necks, but Edwin Jackson is bad enough that the market would back Davies on the road against the best offense in the NL. Eventually, I’ll wrap my head around this.

I mean, I’m tempted to just take a shot with the Nationals and their offense. The concern, obviously, is that Jackson gives up all the runs and the Nationals get buried early in the game. I like Zach Davies and think there’s some upside, but is he really that much better than Edwin Jackson in his current state?

I’m not convinced. I’d honestly have to look Nationals here and hate myself for it in the morning when Jackson allows nine runs in two innings.

Oakland (-120) at Toronto; Total: 9.5

Sonny Gray is supposed to start for the Oakland A’s today, but we’ll see if that actually happens. With the Trade Deadline on July 31, this will probably be the last start as an Athletic for Sonny Gray. He’d be slated to go on Sunday against Minnesota at home, but that seems unlikely at this juncture. The Blue Jays will counter with well-traveled swingman Cesar Valdez, who steps in for Aaron Sanchez, who is back on the DL with blister issues.

Every team with a pitching need is interested in Sonny Gray. Gray is having a terrific bounce back season with a 3.66 ERA, a 3.38 FIP, and a 3.41 xFIP. He’s even carrying a good ERA despite a 66.1 percent LOB%. The A’s aren’t a very good defensive team, so Gray hasn’t gotten a whole lot of help this year. He seems to be healthy again with an uptick in velocity and much better stuff overall. Gray has allowed just six earned runs over his last six starts, so he has certainly impressed the scouts that have been watching him. He hasn’t let the trade rumors bother him at all. Against a Toronto offense that hasn’t generated a whole lot of run-scoring opportunities and hasn’t cashed in on the ones that they have, he’s got a good matchup today.

Cesar Valdez, who spent several seasons in the Mexican League, actually made his MLB debut in 2010 and hadn’t pitched at the big league level again until this season. Valdez was signed to a pro ball contract in 2006. He actually made a spot start on April 20 with the Oakland A’s and gave up three runs on five hits in four innings of work. He has seven relief appearances since with 10 earned runs allowed on 18 hits in 15.1 innings of work. There’s really not a whole lot to like about Valdez here.

This price should probably be a little bit higher. The Oakland offense is hit or miss, but they are familiar with Valdez from his short stint with the A’s and Valdez just isn’t that good of a pitcher. Gray is a big upgrade. The A’s bullpen did lose some of its depth in the Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle trade, but there’s enough here still to get by. I’d take the road team in this one, as the A’s look to honor Sonny Gray with a win in what is probably his last start in green and yellow.

Kansas City at Detroit (-140); Total: 8.5

The Kansas City Royals are running good right now. They’re like that guy at the blackjack table that can’t seem to bust with a 15 or 16 every time he takes a hit. The Royals swept the White Sox over the weekend in three games that easily could have gone either way. Yesterday, the Royals survived in a 5-3 extra-inning win over the Tigers to keep the train rolling.

Today, it’ll be Danny Duffy against Michael Fulmer. The Tigers lost a big component in the offensive machine with JD Martinez getting dealt to Arizona, but this is a Tigers offense that ranks second in wOBA against left-handed pitching on the season. Duffy is having a good season, mostly because he’s been able to limit the long ball. Duffy had a 13 percent HR/FB% last year, which was right around league average. This season, he’s scaled it back to 6.5 percent, so he has a 3.71 ERA and a 3.50 FIP with a 4.56 xFIP. Duffy’s strikeout rate, however, has declined from last season to this season and his velocity has gone down as well. Context is important here because he made 16 relief appearances to go along with his 26 starts and going from the bullpen to the rotation has a clear effect on velocity. The strikeout rate, though, is a real decline. He struck out 167 in 161.2 innings as a starter last season. He has 75 in 94.2 innings this season.

Michael Fulmer had some regression coming and it hit last time out. He allowed eight runs, five earned, in his second start out of the Break. Fulmer’s strikeout rate is also down from last season, but he has one of the best walk rates in the league and has also kept the ball in the park at an excellent rate with a 6.8 percent HR/FB%. Fulmer has a 3.35 ERA with a 3.34 FIP and a 4.17 xFIP. For a while, the market faded Fulmer based on his ERA/xFIP discrepancy, but they have stopped that ill-advised practice.

The Tigers get a little bit of an inflated price here from facing the lefty. Duffy is better than most lefties around the league, so I’m not really sure which way to go with this one. It’s hard to step in front of the Royals, who just keep finding ways to win. The Tigers are a sinking ship. The Royals made a pretty good move yesterday to bring in reinforcements for the playoff push. I’d have to lean the plus money side on the Royals, but I am cautious because they’re going to run out of magic in these toss-up games that they’ve been playing.

Miami at Texas (-135); Total: 10.5

This game has a lot to unpack and it is one of my favorite games on the card tonight. This is why I love handicapping games. I love putting the pieces of the puzzle together to see what I can make. In this instance, we’ve got Dan Straily going up against Cole Hamels.

Let’s start with Straily. Straily was already being viewed as a regression candidate with a 3.49 ERA, a 4.08 FIP, and a 4.51 xFIP. Straily, though, is one of those guys, a la Marco Estrada, that is an extreme fly ball guy that can carry a low BABIP and outpitch a lot of his metrics. The difference is that Straily was racking up more strikeouts than Estrada when he was carrying the low BABIPs. The concern that I have with Straily is that his K% has been progressively dropping. Straily had a 27.4 percent K% in April, a 24.5 percent mark in May, and a 23.4 percent K% in June. In July, his K% is down to 15 percent. His walk rate, though, has gone from 11.3 percent in April to 9.1 percent in May, to 2.7 percent in June, to 4.0 percent in July. So, Straily is not striking out batters at the same clip, but he isn’t walking them at the same clip either.

That’s not the greatest trade-off, but it’s okay. What makes it less of a trade-off is that Straily’s FB% in April was 48.4 percent. In May, it was 49.5 percent. In June, it was 34.2 percent. In July, it is 51.3 percent. That month of June was really strange for Straily. One of Straily’s more underrated assets is that he has induced a lot of pop ups, which effectively add to his strikeout total. That stopped in June, but he wasn’t hurt too badly. It has returned in July. At this point, I don’t know what to think. Straily was a fade guy for me given the trends I saw in June. The strikeout rate decline still concerns me, but the Rangers swing and miss a ton, so maybe he can get back on track in that department. Straily has allowed 17 hits over his last 10 innings, so he’s seen some BABIP regression over his last two starts, which makes me wonder about his command. It may also just be noise and variance.

Then there’s Cole Hamels. I backed Cole Hamels on The Bettor’s Box last Thursday and he got rocked. It looked like Hamels was back. He had allowed just two runs on nine hits over his previous three starts covering 22 innings of work. He had 17 strikeouts against just two walks. Then he gave up seven runs on nine hits, including three home runs, in 5.1 innings against Baltimore. Now, I don’t know what to believe about Hamels. I thought that he was back on the right track after missing time with an oblique injury early in the season, but maybe that isn’t the case at all. Hamels went from inducing a lot of ground balls in a three-start stretch from June 26 to July 7 to inducing very few over his last two starts.

I don’t know what to believe at this point. I know the market is firmly against Hamels, who has a 3.78 ERA with a 4.85 FIP and a 5.07 xFIP. Along with those signs of regression, he has a .229 BABIP against, even after allowing six hits on 18 balls in play last time out, so there’s room for a major drop in that department as well.

There is a wide range of outcomes for both of these starters. Straily is a fly ball guy in a good hitter’s park against a lineup with a DH. Hamels is also facing nine batters and the Marlins have some pretty strong hitters against southpaws, even with some of their injuries. This total is already high, so the over is a tough sell. The move on Straily makes sense given the moves on the Marlins throughout the season. Ultimately, I will pass, but this is a great game to illustrate how I handicap and the ways in which I look for potential edges.

Boston (-105) at Seattle; Total: 8.5

We’ll see left-hander Drew Pomeranz up against Felix Hernandez, who isn’t the pitcher that he used to be, but he’s getting back to that point in some respects. Pomeranz is having an excellent season with a 3.51 ERA, a 3.70 FIP, and a 3.88 xFIP. He’s struck out well over a batter per inning and has pretty average peripherals across the board otherwise. The Mariners are basically a league average offense against lefties, but Pomeranz is certainly better than your standard-issue lefty.

Felix Hernandez has been a bit better this season than he was last season, although a seriously elevated home run rate has him sitting there with a 4.88 FIP. He does have a 3.73 xFIP and a 3.88 ERA. His strikeout rate is back up and his walk rate is back down, so those are two excellent developments for the Mariners, who still have a shot at grabbing a wild card spot.

Since returning from the DL on 6/23, Hernandez has been pretty sharp. He has a 3.25 ERA with a 4.81 FIP and a 3.87 xFIP. He’s struck out 38 in those 36 innings of work. Hernandez has allowed seven HR in that span, but five of them came in his first three starts back from the DL, so maybe we can chalk that up to a little bit of rust.

If Hernandez is truly going to look like the pitcher of old, he could be an underrated asset. I was also looking at his demise last season and chalked him up to being a guy that was in premature decline from the workload over his career.

This looks like another under at Safeco Field tonight.

Pittsburgh at San Francisco (-130); Total: 7

Jameson Taillon and Madison Bumgarner are set to get it going tonight at AT&T Park. This is the third straight start in which we’ve seen money come in against Bumgarner, who was hurt in a pretty severe dirt bike accident back in April. It makes sense that the market wouldn’t be looking to jump on the elite southpaw as he works his way back into an MLB routine.

Taillon has been a huge part of Pittsburgh’s resurgence. On the season, Taillon has a 3.08 ERA with a 3.17 FIP and a 3.48 xFIP. His strikeout rate has been steadily increasing as well. Since returning from cancer treatment on June 12, Taillon has a 2.87/2.22/3.06 pitcher slash with 42 strikeouts in 37.2 innings of work. He has only allowed one home run in those seven starts. He’s pitched around a .383 BABIP against with a great strikeout rate, a solid walk rate, and a strong LOB%. Taillon is definitely a guy to buy. He’s improving and always had this kind of upside.

Madison Bumgarner has allowed seven runs on 10 hits, including four home runs, in his first two starts back. He’s struck out 10 and walked three in 13.1 innings of work. Both of those starts came against the lowly San Diego Padres, so that doesn’t inspire a whole lot of confidence against a much stronger Pittsburgh lineup. I’ve mentioned this a lot lately, but pitchers that get hurt in April basically have lost seasons. After doing all of that work to get built up in Spring Training, they’re still building arm strength and command into the month of April. Bumgarner made four starts before his ill-fated bike ride and is now working to get it all back.

There’s no way I could back the Giants tonight. It’s Pirates or bust for me. Until I see Bumgarner look like the Bumgarner I know, the value is on the other side. Unfortunately, we’ve lost some value on this game already, but there’s still enough left to go with the surging Pirates.

Tuesday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Indians (4-0 past four overall)

The Indians have rolled up four straight victories at home, as they try to keep the red-hot Royals are arm's length. Cleveland is finally one game over .500 at Progressive Field thanks to the hot streak, outscoring opponents 29-7 during the first four games of the homestand. Now the Indians turn their attention to the visiting Angels after Monday's make-up game with the Reds. The Indians are 18-7 over their past 25 games against American League West opponents, and 6-1 in their past seven at home against right-handed starters. For what it's worth, however, they're a dismal 0-6 in their past six played on a Tuesday, and 0-4 in Mike Clevinger's past four starts in Game 1 of a series.

Coldest team: Reds (2-9 past 11 games)

The Reds had a make-up game in Cleveland on Monday, and they suffered a 6-2 setback. They had won a surprising three of their past four games on the road before being tripped up. Now, they'll have the unenviable task of traveling to the Bronx to try and cool off rookie Aaron Judge. Cincinnati is a dismal 1-7 over their past eight games against a team with a winning record, 1-6 in their past seven interleague road outings against a left-handed starter and 0-6 over their past six series openers. The Reds do catch a break with Jordan Montgomery on the bump, as the Yankes are 0-4 over his past four outings.

Hottest pitcher: Jose Berrios, Twins (9-3, 3.50 ERA)

The Twins turn to Berrios, who is looking to become a 10-game winner. After a dismal start in Houston on July 14, he bounced back nicely to turn back the Yankees last Wednesday. He allowed just one earned run, six hits and two walks over 6 2/3 innings in the win to lower his ERA back down to 3.50. Minnesota has won 10 of his past 14 starts, although they're just 4-10 across his past 14 against teams with a winning record. They're also 2-5 over his past seven on the road against teams with a winning overall mark. And while Minnesota has been a huge surprise on the road this season, going 26-18, they're just 4-24 over their past 28 interleague road games against a team with a winning overall mark.

Coldest pitcher: Madison Bumgarner, Giants (0-4, 3.57 ERA)

Bumgarner takes the hill for just second time since returning from his two-month long injury, and he is still searching for his first victory of the season after coming up short in his first six outings. The good news is MadBum has lasted at least six innings in each of his six starts this season, posting a quality start in all but five of his outings. The Giants have dropped four of their past five at home, and they're an uncharacteristic 0-6 over their past six starts. It's hard to believe, but the Pirates are 7-0 over their past seven trips to San Francisco, too, so MadBum has his work cut out for him if he wants to find the win column for the first time in 2017.

Biggest UNDER run: Twins (6-3 past nine overall)

It's been the 'over' hitting across the past three for Minnesota, as they are averaging 5.3 runs per game while allowing 6.7 over the span. However, the 'under' cashed in the previous six outings, and the 'under' is an impressive 8-1-1 over Berrios' past 10 starts against a team with a winning overall record. The under is also 5-2 over his past seven starts, and7-3 in Minnesota's past 10 interleague outings. The under has also hit in five of their past six against a right-handed starting pitcher while going 6-1 in their past seven interleague games vs. RHP.

Biggest OVER run: Giants (9-2-2 past 13 overall)

Total bettors have been making a killing off of the Giants lately, as the 'over' is 9-2-2 over their past 13 outings. The over is also 4-1-1 across their past six at home, and 4-1-1 in the past six against a right-handed starter. However, the under is 3-1-1 in MadBum's past five starts overall and 5-2-1 across his past eight home outings. The Pirates were a good over bet earlier in the season, but lately it's the under coming through. The under is 6-0-1 in Jameson Taillon's past seven starts, and 27-9-2 over their past 38 overall, so Pittsburgh's solid pitching lately will make it tough for San Francisco to continue its 'over' run.

Matchup to watch: Mariners vs. Red Sox

Two ice-cold teams continue their series at Safeco Field on Tuesday. The Mariners posted a 4-0 win against the Red Sox in the series opener, as Boston is now just 1-4 over their past five and 1-5 over the past six road outings. Drew Pomeranz could be the guy to turn things around, however, as the Red Sox are 5-1 over his past six road assignments and 5-0 in the past five starts by the left-hander. Still, Boston is just 1-4 over their past five against the NL West and showing no signs of snapping out of it. Seattle is 2-5 over Felix Hernandez's past seven starts against a team with a winning record, and they're just 4-12 over the past 16 home games, so something's gotta give.

Betcha didn’t know: The Diamondbacks rolled up 10 runs in Monday's series opener against the Braves, and they're the only team in the majors yet to lose a game when posting at least six runs, going 26-0 in such situations. We'll see how many runs they can score off of Mike Foltynewicz, as he has been hot lately. The Braves are a perfect 8-0 over Folty's past eight outings, and 4-0 in his past four on the road. However, they are 0-4 in his past four assignments on a Tuesday. Atlanta apparently misses their days in the National League West, as they're 17-8 over their past 25 against their former division. Arizona is 5-11 over their past 16 overall, but 5-2 in Taijuan Walker's past seven times out.

Biggest public favorite: Cubs (-210) vs. White Sox

Biggest public underdog: Mets (+110) at Padres

Biggest line move: Blue Jays (+120 to -105) vs. Athletics

Struggling Rays host Orioles
By: StatFox.com

The Orioles will be hoping to creep back towards the .500 mark with a win over the Rays on Tuesday.

Baltimore has been one of the league’s more disappointing teams this season, but this group has won two straight and six of its past 10. And while the Orioles are currently sitting in fourth place in the AL East, all it would take is a nice winning streak in order to get back into the AL Wild Card race. The Rays, meanwhile, are also gunning for one of those spots. They are 2.5 games ahead of the Orioles right now, but they are struggling at the moment. Monday night’s loss to Baltimore was Tampa Bay’s sixth loss in 10 games, and this team needs to turn things around quickly. The starting pitchers in this game are set to be LHP Wade Miley (4-8, 5.58 ERA, 87 K) for Baltimore and RHP Jacob Faria (4-1, 2.52 ERA, 45 K) for Tampa Bay. One absolutely staggering trend that stands out when looking at this game is that the Orioles are 0-11 against the money line when facing a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better this season. The Rays, however, are also a lousy 40-51 against the money line versus teams whose hitters draw three walks or less per game over the past two seasons.

If the Orioles are going to win a third straight game then Wade Miley is going to need to find a way to be effective on Tuesday. The lefty has allowed a miserable 12 earned runs in his past 9.2 innings of work, and the Orioles need him to find a way to turn things around here. One positive sign for Baltimore is that Miley allowed only two earned runs in seven innings of work in his only start against Tampa Bay this season. If he can turn in a performance like that then his teammates will likely be inspired enough to earn the win. Offensively, OF Mark Trumbo (.249 BA, 17 HR, 50 RBI) appears to be getting it going a bit. He has homered twice in the past five games and it would be huge for Baltimore to have their slugger back in the form he was in last season. The Orioles do, however, need 3B Manny Machado (.238 BA, 18 HR, 52 RBI) to start performing at a higher level. Machado is supposed to be a superstar, but he has been miserable this season. Baltimore can’t turn it around if he doesn’t find his game.

The Rays appeared to be on their way to contending in the AL East, but they have struggled a bit recently. Fortunately, there is plenty of time left in the season and they are still in better shape than their opponent in this game. Tampa Bay can really use a good performance from Jacob Faria, though. The righty is coming off of his worst start of the season, as he allowed four earned runs in five innings of work against the Athletics. He’ll need to be better than he was in that one on Tuesday. On offense, 3B Evan Longoria (.268 BA, 14 HR, 59 RBI) is a guy that should be able to come through for the Rays in this one. Longoria has homered twice off of Wade Miley in his career, and he also happens to have five multi-hit games in the past 10 games. He is seeing the ball well and will be confident in this game.