MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, July 4th, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Mets @ Nationals
Lugo is 3-1, 4.26 in four starts this year (over 2-1-1). Mets’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-1

Ross is 1-0,1.98 in his last two starts(over 7-4). Washington is 5-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-3-1

New York won four of last six games; under is 5-1-1 in their last seven games. Washington lost three of last five games; under is 7-2 in their last nine games.

Pirates @ Phillies
Taillon is 2-1, 2.42 in his last four starts; his last three starts stayed under. Pirates are 3-2 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-3-3

Lester is 2-0, 2.42 in his last four starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. Cubs are 6-3 in his home starts; their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-8-3

Pirates lost their last four games; under is 6-1 in their last seven games. Phillies lost five of last seven home games; under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games.

Marlins @ Cardinals
Urena is 3-1, 3.41 in his last five starts; under is 2-0-2 in his last four. Miami is 3-1 in his four road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-3-1

Lynn is 1-2, 9.37 in his last three starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. St Louis is 3-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-8-1

Marlins lost five of last six games; under is 5-3-1 in their last nine games. St Louis won five of last six games; over is 8-3 in their last 11 home games.

Reds @ Rockies
Bailey allowed 14 runs in 4.2 IP in his two starts this year (over 2-0). Reds’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 0-2 (outscored 23-1 in first five innings of his two starts)

Freeland is 1-3, 5.80 in his last four starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Colorado is 4-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 9-6-1

Reds are 2-15 in last 17 road games; over is 13-5 in their last 18 road tilts. Colorado lost nine of last 11 games; over is 7-4 in their last 11 home games.

Diamondbacks @ Dodgers
Corbin is 2-1, 3.70 in his last four starts; over is 4-1-1 in his last six. Arizona is 1-5 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-8-2

Kershaw is 4-0, 3.08 in his last four starts; over is 5-4 in his home starts. Dodgers are 8-1 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 11-2-3

Arizona won seven of last eight road games, is 8-4 in road series openers. Under is 5-2-1 in their last eight games. Los Angeles is 12-1 in last 13 home games, 10-4 in home series openers. Under is 7-3 in their last ten games.

American League

Blue Jays @ New York
Happ is 2-1, 2.08 in his last four starts (under 3-1). Toronto is 1-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-6

Sabathia is 5-0, 1.50 in his last six starts; New York is 5-0 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-5-1

Toronto lost nine of last 11 games; under is 6-3-1 in their last ten games. New York is 5-7 in its last 12 games; over is 8-2-1 in their last 11 home games.

Red Sox @ Rangers
Price is 2-2, 5.59 in his last five starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Boston is 2-2 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-3

Darvish is 0-2, 4.00 in his last three starts; under is 10-0-1 in his last 11. Texas lost his last three home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-5-5

Boston won its last five games; over is 5-1 in their last six road games. Texas lost six of last eight games; over is 15-2-1 in their last 18 home games.

Angels @ Twins
Ramirez is 0-3, 4.64 in his last four starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Angels are 4-5 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-9-2

Gibson is 0-2, 4.96 in his last three starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Minnesota is 2-5 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-8-1

Angels lost four of last five games; four of Angels’ last five road games stayed under. Minnesota lost six of last nine games; under is 6-3 in their last nine home games.

White Sox @ A’s
Shields is 1-1, 7.04 in his last three starts (over 3-3). Chicago’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-2-1

Gossett is 1-3, 6.86 in four starts this year (over 2-2); Oakland’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-3

White Sox won four of last five games; over is 4-1-1 in their last six games. A’s lost their last eight home games; under is 7-2-1 in his last ten home games.

Royals @ Mariners
Duffy is making his first start since May 28; he is 2-1, 3.60 in his last four starts. Royals are 2-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-6-2

Hernandez is 1-1, 6.43 in his last three starts; over is 3-0-1 in his last four. Seattle is 3-1 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-3

Royals are 16-6 in their last 22 games; over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Seattle lost six of its last eight games; over is 5-2-1 in their last eight home games.

Interleague

Giants @ Tigers
Cain is 0-6, 7.29 in his last eight starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Giants lost his last four road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-10-1

Fulmer is 1-3, 4.05 in his last four starts; over is 7-4-1 in his last 12. Detroit is 5-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-6-1

Giants won their last six games; they’re 7-7 in road series openers. Four of their last five games stayed under. Detroit is 4-11 in its last 15 games, 9-4 in home series openers. Four of their last five games went over.

Rays @ Cubs
Archer is 1-3, 4.65 in his last five starts; under is 5-3 in his last eight. Tampa Bay is 4-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 9-3-5

Lackey is 1-4, 6.35 in his last five starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Chicago is 3-4 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-12-1

Rays are 8-6 in last 14 games, 9-5 in road series openers. Under is 5-1 in their last six games. Chicago lost four of last six games; they’re 5-7 in home series openers. Under is 5-2 in last seven games at Wrigley Field.

Orioles @ Brewers
Jimenez is 2-2, 7.42 in his last five starts; over is 6-1-1 in his last eight. Orioles are 3-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-6-1

Nelson is 2-1, 3.00 in his last three starts; under is 6-4-1 in his last 11. Milwaukee is 4-5 in his home starts; their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-9-1

Baltimore lost three of last four games; under is 6-1 in their last seven games. Milwaukee won four of last five games; under is 5-3-1 in their last nine home games.

Padres @ Indians
Cahill is 3-0, 3.30 in his last five starts; over is 4-1-1 in his last six. San Diego is 1-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-5-1

Kluber is 4-0, 1.67 in his last six starts; under is 5-3-1 in his last nine. Cleveland is 5-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-6

Padres lost seven of last nine road games, are 2-10 in road series openers. Under is 9-4 in their last 13 games. Indians won four of last five games, are 5-8 in home series openers. Under is 6-1 in their last seven home tilts.

Astros @ Braves
Peacock is 2-0, 1.69 in his last two starts (under 5-2). Houston is 3-0 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-2

Newcomb is 1-2, 1.85 in four starts this year (under 4-0). Braves scored nine runs in the four games- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-2

Astros won four of last five games, are 10-2 in road series openers. Over is 8-2 in their last ten games. Braves are 11-4 in last 15 games, 9-2 in last 11 road series openers. Under is 8-1 in their last nine games.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
NY-Wash: Lugo 3-1; Ross 7-4
Pitt-Phil: Taillon 5-5; Leiter 2-0
Mia-StL: Urena 7-4; Lynn 7-9
Cin-Colo: Bailey 0-2; Freeland 10-6
Az-LA: Corbin 8-8; Kershaw 14-2

American League
Tor-NY: Happ 3-6; Sabathia 10-3
Bos-Tex: Price 4-3; Darvish 8-9
LA-Min: Ramirez 9-6; Gibson 7-7
Chi-A’s: Shields 3-3; Gossett 1-3
KC-Sea: Duffy 5-6; Hernandez 3-4

Interleague
SF-Det: Cain 7-9; Fulmer 8-7
TB-Chi: Archer 9-8; Lackey 7-9
Blt-Mil: Jimenez 7-4; Nelson 8-8
SD-Clev: Cahill 4-3; Kluber 8-4
Hst-Atl: Peacock 5-2; Newcomb 2-2

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
NY-Wash: Lugo 2-4; Ross 5-11
Pitt-Phil: Taillon 2-10; Leiter 1-2
Mia-StL: Urena 2-11; Lynn 6-16
Cin-Colo: Bailey 2-2; Freeland 4-16
Az-LA: Corbin 9-16; Kershaw 4-16

American League
Tor-NY: Happ 2-9; Sabathia 3-13
Bos-Tex: Price 3-7; Darvish 4-17
LA-Min: Ramirez 9-15; Gibson 3-14
Chi-A’s: Shields 3-6; Gossett 0-4
KC-Sea: Duffy 1-11; Hernandez 4-7

Interleague
SF-Det: Cain 6-16; Fulmer 4-15
TB-Chi: Archer 4-17; Lackey 9-16
Blt-Mil: Jimenez 4-11; Nelson 3-16
SD-Clev: Cahill 2-7; Kluber 3-12
Hst-Atl: Peacock 1-7; Newcomb 1-4

Umpires

National League
NY-Wash: Over is 4-0-1 in last five Torres games.
Mia-StL: Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Emmel games.
Pitt-Phil: Under is 7-1-2 in Blakney games this year.
Cin-Colo: Over is 7-4 in last eleven Miller games.

American League
Tor-NY: Under is 5-2 in last seven Kulpa games.
LA-Min: Over is 9-2-1 in last dozen Nelson games.
Chi-A’s: Home team is 18-12 in last 30 Barber games.
KC-Sea: Over is 5-0-1 in last six Gibson games.
Bos-Tex: Last five Baker games went over the total.

Interleague

Balt-Mil: Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Morales games.

Interleague play
NL @ AL– 41-28 AL, favorites -$607
AL @ NL– 41-40 NL, favorites -$910
Total: 81-69 AL, favorites -$1,517

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 42-30-2
AL @ NL: Over 43-33-2
Total: Over 85-63-4

Armadillosports.com

Tuesday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Giants (6-0 past six games)

The Giants have rolled to six straight victories, playing their best baseball of the season. The Giants are coming off an impressive three-game sweep of the Pirates in Pittsburgh, and that comes on the heels of a three-game sweep against the previously hot Rockies. San Francisco has outscored their opponents 38-17 during the impressive six-game run, allowing three or fewer runs in five of the outings. The Giants look for their seventh straight against Michael Fulmer, and the Tigers are just 2-5 over his past seven outings. However, at home he has been much better, as the Tigers are 8-3 in his past 11 assignments at Comerica Park.

Coldest team: Athletics (0-6 past six games, 4-10 past 14 overall)

On the other side of the bay, the Athletics have been one of the coldest teams in baseball. They can't seem to buy a hit lately, averaging just 2.0 runs per game over the past five outings. The A's are 0-7 in their past seven home games against a right-handed starter, 0-5 in their past five home games against a team with a losing record and 0-5 in their past five overall vs. RHP. They have also dropped eight in a row overall at home. 'Big Game' James Shields hasn't been much better for the White Sox, and the team is 7-15 over his past 22 overall, 1-5 over his past six road outings and 1-9 in his past 10 against teams with a losing overall mark.

Hottest pitcher: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers (12-2, 2.32 ERA)

The All-Star Kershaw will be on the mound against the Diamondbacks hoping to avoid the fireworks he has provided in recent starts. He has already served up a career-high 17 homers through 116 1/3 innings, although he has limited the damage somehow since he still ranks third in the majors with a 2.32 ERA while striking out 135 batters with a .202 opponent batting average and sparkling 0.91 WHIP. The Snakes are just 1-4 over their past five against left-handed pitchers and they're 1-10 in their past 11 with Patrick Corbin making a road start. Arizona is also 0-4 in Corbin's past four starts against the Dodgers, while L.A. is 8-3 in Kershaw's past 11 at home against the D-Backs and 5-1 in his past six outings against Arizona overall. The Diamondbacks are also a dismal 7-24 in their past 31 forays into Chavez Ravine.

Coldest pitcher: Homer Bailey, Reds (0-2, 27.00 ERA)

Bailey is making his way back after major reconstructive elbow surgery and he hasn't looked good in his two outings since returning to the big club. He has allowed 14 runs and 12 hits in just 4 2/3 innings while walking five batters and striking out four. The Reds have really been struggling with or without Bailey, going 5-22 over their past 27 road games and 6-17 in their past 23 games overall. The Reds are also just 14-38 in their past 52 games against a left-handed starter on the road, so it will be an uphill climb for Bailey. Cincinnati is also just 14-33 in their past 47 tries at Coors Field.

Biggest UNDER run: Rockies (5-0-1 past six overall)

The 'under' is not exactly the first thing you think of when talking about the Rockies. However, these Rockies have been ice cold lately. Their pitching has been above-average, while their offense has been struggling. Of course, that 5-0-1 'under' streak for Colorado could be in jeopardy with Bailey scuffling on the mound for the Reds. The 'under' is an impressive 7-0 over Kyle Freeland's past seven home starts and 12-2-2 across his past 16 starts overall. The under is also 4-0 in Colorado's past four vs. RHP and 2-0-2 in his past four against teams with a losing overall mark. Of course, the over is 4-1 in the past five meetings in this series with a 10-4-1 record in the past 15 meetings at Coors Field.

Biggest OVER run: Rangers (4-0 past four overall)

The Rangers haven't been doing terribly well lately, and the over has been the result for Texas. The over is 4-0 in their past four games overall, 15-5-1 in their past 21 games at home and 5-0-2 in Yu Darvish's past seven home starts against a team with a winning overall record. The over is also 3-1-1 in the past five at home for the Rangers against winning teams. In this series the over is 4-1 in the past five meetings, although the under is 12-5-1 in the past 18 meetings in Arlington.

Matchup to watch: Indians vs. Padres

The Padres and Indians clash in a rare interleague series. San Diego has the misfortune of facing the American League pitcher of the month of June, Corey Kluber. He is 7-2 with a 3.02 ERA, 20 walks and 105 strikeouts over 80 1/3 innings. He has lasted at least seven innings in each of his past four outings while turning in quality starts in each of the past six outings. In addition, Kluber has rolled up 10 or more strikeouts in five of the past six starts. That's bad news for a Padres offense which has struck out 772 times across 82 games (9.41 per game) to rank fifth in the majors. San Diego also ranks dead last in runs scored with 296, 20 fewer than the next worst team.

Betcha didn’t know: The Orioles pitching staff has struggled mightily, and Ubaldo Jimenez is no exception. While he did look sensational last time out against the Blue Jays, working eight scoreless innings with a season-high eight strikeouts, he still has a dismal 6.48 ERA overall. He is 3-1 with a 2.63 ERA across six starts against the Brewers. The Orioles are actually an impressive 12-5 across Jimenez's past 17 starts, and and even better 10-1 in his past 11 interleague assignments. While they're 7-21 over the past 28 road games, they might have the right pitcher on the mound for success.

Biggest public favorite: Dodgers (-300) vs. Diamondbacks, Indians (-300) vs. Padres

Biggest public underdog: Red Sox (+125) at Rangers

Biggest line move: Dodgers (-275 to -300) vs. Diamondbacks

MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Toronto at New York (-105); Total: 9.5

The Blue Jays are in a world of hurt right now. As Aaron Sanchez still tries to work his way back from a blister, one popped up yesterday for Marcus Stroman in his start against the Yankees. That seems almost metaphorical for how things have gone of late for Toronto. They’ll try to get back in the win column today with JA Happ against CC Sabathia.

Happ is actually an interesting trade candidate at this Trade Deadline. He’s signed through next season at $13M per. The market isn’t deep on starting pitching depth, so teams will be calling about the reliable left-hander. Happ has a 3.71 ERA with a 3.72 FIP and a 3.49 xFIP on the season. He’s struck out 51 in 51 innings of work. He’s been limited by a couple of injuries, but he’s put together back-to-back three-win seasons per Fangraphs fWAR and has very reliable for the Blue Jays. Like most, the home run/launch angle craze has gotten to Happ, as he has allowed eight dingers in those 51 innings, but he has only walked nine. His 15.4 percent HR/FB% should regress as he makes more starts and increases his sample size. He hasn’t allowed a homer in each of his last four starts.

CC Sabathia comes off the disabled list after a hamstring injury put him on the shelf for a little while. The hefty lefty has pitched well this year with a 3.46 ERA, a 4.13 FIP, and a 4.16 xFIP. Sabathia has lost some velocity and some command with over 3,200 innings on his arm, but he’s still getting it done and has lowered his home run rate from 2014 and 2015 when it looked like he was done as an effective starter. With a SIERA of 4.36, the market is looking for some regression, which is why we’ve seen about a 10-cent move on this game.

If the Blue Jays are going to get one, today should be that day. If they weren’t playing so bad, I’d lean their way, especially with CC coming off the DL. I discussed on yesterday’s edition of The Bettor’s Box that I’m backing off on them and that holds true today.

Los Angeles at Minnesota (-120); Total: 10

JC Ramirez and Kyle Gibson meet for some matinee baseball at Target Field. After a lengthy 9-5 game last night, it’s a quick turnaround to get back to the ballpark for these two teams for a 1:10 p.m. local time first pitch. That should favor the Twins, who are definitely accustomed to the Central Time Zone.

On the other hand, the pitcher matchup should slightly favor the Angels with Ramirez on the bump. The reliever turned starter has made 15 starts this season and has a 4.60 ERA with a 4.80 FIP and a 4.14 xFIP. Consistency has been an issue for Ramirez lately. He allowed six runs over 5.2 in his last start, but one run across six innings prior to that. He gave up five runs in three innings after giving up two runs over 6.2 innings. So, it’s hard to tell what you’re going to get from Ramirez. I don’t like backing guys like that. I need some sort of consistency.

Gibson, to me, is one of the lowest-rated pitchers in the AL with a 6.11 ERA, a 5.77 FIP, and a 5.11 xFIP. He has poor K/BB rates and worse command. Since his May 22 recall, Gibson has been a bit better with a 4.87 ERA, a 5.27 FIP, and a 4.74 xFIP, but it’s still nothing to write home about. Gibson and Ramirez could both struggle mightily in their starts and the bullpens aren’t great here either. I’d be inclined to look at the over, even with the possibility that the Angels offense is a little bit sleepy in the early going. Gibson has held batters to a .285/.341/.440 slash the first time through, but hitters have a .318/.400/.591 slash the second time through and a .371/.458/.656 the third time through, so don’t be concerned if they start slowly.

Miami at St. Louis (-135); Total: 9.5

No interest in this game, but don’t be surprised to see Marlins steam hit the board. The market has bet against Lance Lynn with regularity this season.

Tampa Bay at Chicago (-140); Total: 8

Chris Archer and Jon Lester meet in today’s top pitching matchup. This should set up for both guys to have success. Archer has a tremendous arsenal and the Cubs offense has been sluggish. Lester is left-handed and the Rays have struggled with southpaws on the season.

Archer hasn’t had much ERA luck over the last two seasons. He has a 3.92 ERA this year despite a 3.08 FIP and a 3.44 xFIP. The root causes are a .319 BABIP against and a 71.6 percent strand rate. Guys with Archer’s K% generally strand more runners than that, but he’s had a hard time pitching out of those high-leverage situations. His ERA isn’t representative of the season he’s having, as he’s on pace for another five-win season, his second in the last three years.

Lester was moved up in the Cubs rotation so that he’ll get another start on Sunday before the first half ends. He’s been Chicago’s most consistent starter by a long shot with a 3.69 ERA, a 3.64 FIP, and a 3.64 xFIP. Lester has over a strikeout per inning and good peripherals otherwise. Like most Cubs pitchers last season, Lester had an unsustainably high LOB% and we’re seeing the effects of that this season with a 1.25-run spike in ERA. Lester’s FIP and xFIP are on par with last season, though, so he’s just fine and this is a particularly good matchup for him.

I’d lean Cubs here because they have the stronger bullpen and the pitching matchup is more favorable for them, but both guys should have success.

Houston (-145) at Atlanta; Total: 9.5

There are only two road favorites today and Houston is one of them. The Astros visit the Braves in a battle that features Brad Peacock and Sean Newcomb. Atlanta is coming back from a trip out west and Houston is coming down off a series against the Yankees, so it’s a bad situational spot for both teams, even with yesterday’s off day.

Peacock has been incredible this season. He has a 2.72 ERA with a 2.40 FIP and a 3.47 xFIP in seven starts and 12 relief appearances. He has 73 strikeouts in just 49.2 innings of work, which has come out of nowhere. He has the highest slider usage of his career and a 13.7 percent swinging strike rate, which is 5.8 percent higher than last season and nearly five percent higher than his career average. He had 22 K in 16.1 innings as a reliever and has 51 K in 33.1 innings as a starter, so moving to the rotation hasn’t cut into his K rate. Opposing hitters are batting .198/.317/.281.

Six-foot-five workhorse Sean Newcomb has a 1.48 ERA with a 2.94 FIP and a 3.94 xFIP in his first 24.1 innings as a Major Leaguer. Newcomb has a 21/8 K/BB ratio, which was a big concern for him since he’s posted very high walk rates in the minors. As you would expect with an unfamiliar lefty with a big frame and a lot of extension, hitters are struggling to make solid contact. He’s only allowed one home run and a .250 BABIP against. Newcomb is definitely one of those lefties that will have success the first time through the lineup.

I haven’t felt this strongly about an under in a long time. Playing unders this season is kind of terrifying, to be honest, but this is one I’m a huge fan of and will happily scoop up some value on the line. The Astros lose a hitter with the DH. Both teams are in suboptimal situational spots. It just looks like the right play here. Hopefully both bullpens hold up when the starters exit.

Boston at Texas (-130); Total: 9

David Price and Yu Darvish would be the top pitching matchup of the day if Price looked anything like the guy that we’re accustomed to seeing. Price has a 4.61 ERA with a 4.93 FIP and a 4.88 xFIP on the season in his 41 innings. His year got off to a late start due to some elbow discomfort and now his stats are giving Red Sox fans and executives some discomfort. His K rate is down, his walk rate is up, his home run rate is way up, and he’s posting a career high HR/FB% despite a career high in FB%. It’s not a very good profile right now and it’s fair to wonder if Price is fully healthy. He hasn’t made any overly significant usage changes that would suggest pain, so maybe he’s just trying to get a feel for everything and is having some issues.

Right now, Yu Darvish is the only Rangers starter worth backing. Darvish has a 3.11 ERA with a 3.76 FIP and a 3.79 xFIP in his 107 innings of work. He’s struck out over a batter per inning and has induced a lot of weak contact with a .253 BABIP against. Darvish mostly looks like the same guy that he was pre-Tommy John, except for a little bit of a strikeout decrease. If the Rangers fall back in the wild card hunt, Darvish could fetch a mint as the most sought after rental on the trade market. That’s something that we’ll have to watch for as we go throughout the month of July.

What’s so special about Darvish is that he has only allowed more than three runs once over his last 13 starts, so he keeps his team in the game and gives a subpar offense a chance to scratch something together. That’s the type of thing that can help a pitcher set himself above the rest. That’s one of Darvish’s strengths.

It’s hard to step in front of the Red Sox train right now, as they have scored at least seven runs in each of their last four games, but Darvish may be the one to stand on the tracks and stare down that Boston locomotive. On the other hand, this could be a start for Price to get right against a Rangers lineup that is not doing much lately and has been striking out a ton. It could be a low-scoring affair in Arlington tonight.

Dave's MLB Tuesday
By Dave Essler

Marlins/Nationals: It doesn't matter to me who the Nationals are playing if Ross (or Roark) is on the mound. With 13 home runs and 77 hits in only 63 innings, he's not worth -160 when you combine what he might do with what the Nationals bullpen has done lately. Lugo may have a bigger upside, but the Nationals have already seen him this season and he has been giving up a lot of fly ball outs, which when you park that next to the Met's bullpen, I could only consider the over in this one. However, in the NL that total (9.5) is a big one. To be honest I could see it going even higher, at least initially.

Marlins/Cardinals: Lance Lynn is almost always a big wild card. He can be great, and he can get killed. If I were to venture a guess here I'd say he's "due" to be great after two pretty low pitch-count games, and the fact that none of the Fish sticks (pun intended) have done much with him. I don't like the spot here for Urena, because he just threw 105 pitches and he hadn't thrown nearly that many since late May. Barring anything out of the ordinary on Tuesday night and seeing as how it will be 90 degrees in St. Louis, I can't take the Fish here, and as most of you know I'd always try to find a way to take the dog.

Pittsburgh/Philadelphia: Betting on the Pirates is becoming increasingly difficult, and although Taillon has some of the bettors on his side, he's proven to be more than human on several different occasions, usually on the road. He does come in having shut out the hot-hitting Rays last week (in Tampa with a DH) so it's not likely the Pirates get any cheaper in the near future. Leiter was beaten up by the Mariners, who are quite hot, but I've got no issue with someone who shut out the D-Backs in Arizona, walking only one, and that's especially true when you look at what the Phillies pen has done lately - a 0.94 WHIP in the last week. The Pirates could end up one of the public disasters of the day.

Reds/Rockies: Colorado opened here at -166 and went pretty quickly to -152, which is all well and good until I see that Homer Bailey is pitching for the Reds. We were on him large last week and whether we bet the Rockies or pass, I can say with absolute certainty that I won't bet on the Reds. Without wasting more of my fingertips, his "tired arm" is still very tired. Carlos Gonzalez has been activated from the DL, so I just don't grasp that early Reds money and will choose to completely ignore it. What's interesting about Freeland is that he's actually been much better at Coors than on the road, so at the very least and without looking at bullpens or factoring in Monday night, the Rockies F5 is doable. That total of 13 will make the RL pretty cheap and perhaps insignificant, if that's your drug of choice.

DBacks/Dodgers: I've said to clients for a month now that if and when an "ace" gets beat it's usually by someone that knows them will, like a division opponent. There would be no chance of -300 under and circumstances, Kerhsaw or not. Corbin has been much better in the last month than he was in the first two, so the RL here isn't out of the question by any means. I do think that comment by Jansen about the fans not voting enough to get Dodgers players elected to the AS game has got to have some effect, and not likely a really positive one, either, and with Monday off to think about it, there could be some apathy in the stands, especially if Jansen has to try and close the game. So, I want no part of this one - but I could make a case for the under if it goes to 7.5, which I think it will at some point. Whether it stays there or not is yet another thing.

Toronto/New York: Sabathia has been on the DL since the 13th of June with a hamstring issue, and that's two strikes against me betting on the Yankees. I don't like pitchers coming off the DL and pitchers' with leg issues can be especially damning. I'd almost rather they had Tommy John surgery because at least you know the problem is fixed. And of course this goes directly to pitchers getting beat by familiar foes, which of course Toronto is. Happ hasn't allowed a home run in four starts, but he fly ball ratio has been inching up game-by-game. I honestly think this one could come down to the bullpen, and although New York has Betances/Chapman (considering availability after Monday) the Jays pen with Osuna and company isn't the worst one you could bet on. Then again, neither pen has been very good "lately" so I might make a case for the over, but would obviously much rather see a "9" there.

Angels/Twins: I suppose they can't make the Angels road favorites, so they had to put Minnesota out at -110/-115 and let the market decide, but Kyle Gibson and his season-long 1.78 WHIP is clearly out of the question. That only gets worse when you factor in how awful the Twins bullpen can be. Conversely Ramirez has been getting banged around a bit, but he's also faced some pretty potent offenses of late. Add that to the fact that he was hammered by these same Twins not that long ago. If this "rematch" were in LA I'd be all over Ramirez to make the adjustments, but that's tougher to do on the road, especially for such a young pitcher. The Angel's bullpen hasn't been something we'd want money on, either, so I lean in the direction of "over." Apparently so do many people since that total came out at 10.5, which is far more than I'd hope for two offenses than can be a bit anemic.

White Sox/A's: It's almost unfathomable that without Sonny Gray pitching that the A's can open -160 to too many teams, and it's of course a direct betting dis on James Shields. Gosset has done nothing to warrant that price in my opinion, and in fact the White Sox just faced him and lost ten days ago. One would have to think that with the A's bullpen being as bad as it is, an with David Robertson being out on Paternity leave, that there may be some runs scored here. This game reminds me of the Angels/Twins game in that two typically weak offense might be made to look much better than they are by two pitchers that can have trouble getting people out. Shields might strike some people out, but his propensity for giving up fly balls is always a yellow flag, even in this stadium.

Royals/Mariners: Although as of this writing Duffy is not listed as the Royals' starter, apparently he is. He hasn't pitched since late-May, which is of course a problem for me. He was out with an oblique issue, which is also a problem. I'm not sure I trust the Royals on the road anyhow. The Kansas City bullpen has been above par "lately", but it's had it's troubles on the road this season, and that "lately" includes four games against Minnesota. It's always tough to know what Felix will bring, and this start was pushed back a day to get him more rest, which could be good, or not, as these pitchers DO like their routine. Kansas City is obviously no stranger to Felix, but with the way the Mariner's pen has been (1.22 WHIP over the last week) and given the history of Hernandez at home, one would have a hard time convincing me to take the Royals.

Red Sox/Rangers: Easily the marquee game of the night in Arlington, with two potentially elite pitchers and two potentially elite offenses. What concerns me about David Price is that he allowed a ton of fly ball outs and threw 112 pitches last week against the Twins. If that happens in Arlington against a better team with high temperatures, Boston had better have a stout bullpen. The only REAL bad outing Darvish has had in recent memory was a few starts ago against Seattle, and remember I said that elite pitchers usually get beat by teams that know them well. The Boston bullpen has been superb, and of course the Rangers' bullpen has not, which makes for perhaps a great first-five inning bet on Texas. We'll have a "feels like" temperature up near triple-digits at game time, something Texas is clearly more adjusted to. If this were the first game of the series it might be easier to take Texas, and any bet here will have to wait to see what transpires Monday night, particularly with the bullpens.

Giants/Tigers: Who would have ever thought that Matt Cain would be +200, give or take? That in an of itself is almost enough to make me give the Giants RL a try simply because the Tiger's bullpen is new new definition of deplorable. I would grant you that it's been much better lately, but if it's still part of a -200 equation then that's not a formula I want to solve. On the flip side, Fulmer does not give up long balls and in fact keeps the ball on the ground perhaps better than anyone in baseball. The Giants pen has been really, really solid lately, so if Cain gets in much trouble I don't expect him to last long, and that's probably far more true in an AL park with a DH, since anyone that comes in and is doing well won't have to get PH for anytime soon. With that in mind I could almost make a case for the F5 over and yet under for the full game. That total opening at 10 was fairly predictable, but it's heading South, not North, in early betting, so perhaps "they" see it the same way I do.

Rays/Cubs: What interests me more here is the total, which obviously being in Wrigley will be out later rather than sooner. Many of the Rays saw Lester in the AL, but the problem I have taking Archer without a lot of due diligence is that Tampa Bay is 9-16 against left handed pitching. Not to mention the fact that Archer also has to hit. I'm always leery of Archer and his pitch counts, and that's made pretty clear by the fact that in all of his last four starts he didn't pitch into the 7th inning. And of course we know that although the Ray's pen has been somewhat better lately, they're capable of implosion. What's interesting about Tampa Bay is that although their W/L record against southpaws isn't very good, they're actually a pretty good "over" team in that situation. So, let me see what's behind door # 3 for a total, and perhaps we'll get a decent one with these two pitchers. I'd expect that whatever number comes out it may get bet up quickly then settle back down.

Orioles/Brewers: Well, two quick things come to mind with the Orioles. No, make that three. They cannot play defense (or couldn't Monday), Ubaldo screwed nearly every bettor in his last start at Toronto (throwing a two-hit shutout), and "over" bettors on Monday were not happy. So I guess that would mean we should unload on the Brewers and Nelson, who won a big game for us last week in Cincinnati. If only it were that simple. Travis Shaw was hit in the hand by a pitch and left Monday's game, and typically even after all the medical stuff comes back clear it's tough for players to get in the next game. I have to think that this game has far too many variables to really know what the heck is going to happen. Both bullpens have been pretty solid LATELY, so there's a real chance that this game isn't as high scoring as perhaps the knee-jerk reaction might be. I made the case the other night that when teams have those huge innings it tends to go the other way in the next game, and in reality the Brewers never did score again, so I could easily make the under argument here.

Padres/Indians: Although the Indians offense can, at times, be pretty pathetic, you'd have a hard time convincing me that Kluber is going to lose to Cahill. That's especially true in this park where we've got a DH, as opposed to someone Cahill might be able to pitch around. My only concern with Kluber is a 111 pitch game last week, and although he's used to big work, if there's a spot to even think an ace might give up a few, that's generally it. Cahill comes back off the DL, which is was on for about six weeks with a shoulder issue. Now, we know that's been fixed, but can we even think about trusting him? It's one game and one start and just as the Padres don't see Kluber, the Indians don't see Cahill, which makes looking at the under for the F5 a very viable option. Cleveland's generally sick bullpen hasn't been sick in a good way lately - in fact they've been very bad. However, the Padres 12-26 road record is just sitting there saying "don't even think about it," so I won't. Yet.

Houston/Atlanta: I am sitting here typing and praying that total that opened at 9.5 comes down to 9, making it a green light special. I'm somewhat surprised it's been bet down to 9.5 U(-125) early on. Peacock hasn't been pitching very deep and threw 106 pitches last outing, which for him is a lot, and his fly ball/ground ball ratio has started creeping up with the additional work. The Houston bullpen hasn't been great of late, and of course now in an NL park that could mean and extra inning or two, depending on how the game plays out. Newcomb has been quite good, and merely an extension of what he was in AAA - but this is the Astros, and most of his game to date have been against marginal offenses.

MLB Line Drive
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Double-Play Picks

Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies (-153, 12.5)

The Rockies host the Reds for a Fourth of July evening showdown after the Rockies took the opener of their four-game set Monday night, 5-3, and Game 2 could produce fireworks - and we’re not talking about the ones to celebrate the holiday.

The Rockies are happy to return to home as they did not enjoy their most recent nine-game road trip, going a miserable 1-8. Luckily, the thin air of Coors Field has been a welcome comfort. Colorado ranks third in the Major Leagues plating 5.79 runs per game at home this season. They also rank second in average and fourth in OPS at home.

What is even luckier for the Rockies is that they get to go up against the Reds’ Homer Bailey. Bailey missed almost the first three months of the season after undergoing surgery to remove bone spurs from his right elbow (his throwing arm) and his first two starts since returning have not been pretty.

Bailey has managed to get through just 4.2 total innings in his first two starts since returning to the Reds rotation allowing a whopping 14 earned runs, giving up three long balls, and walking five with just four strikeouts.

The Rockies meanwhile, counter with impressive rookie Kyle Freeland. The southpaw is 8-6 for Colorado this season with a solid 3.84 ERA. At home he is 4-3 with a 3.21 ERA and more importantly has kept the ball in the park, allowing just three home runs in his seven starts at Coors. That will be important against a Reds team that can hit with the best of them this season.

Pick: Rockies -153

Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers (-290, 7.5)

The dog fight in the National League West between the Diamondbacks and the Dodgers comes to a head Tuesday evening in Los Angeles. The Dodgers lead the D-Backs by 2.5 games for the division lead, but both teams are having incredible seasons thus far.

Patrick Corbin draws the tough assignment for Arizona and he has not been good on the road with a 1-5 record, an ERA of 7.84, and a WHIP of 1.74. The Diamondbacks also lost Corbin's only 2017 start in Los Angeles, 8-4, back in April.

Corbin will be opposed by the machine Clayton Kershaw who will climb the hill for the Dodgers...he's pretty good, I guess. The Dodgers are 15-2 in his 17 starts this season, including wins in 11 straight! Of those 15 team wins, the Dodgers have covered the -1.5 runline 11 times.

Kershaw is awesome every time he climbs a pitcher's mound, but he's especially amazing to watch at Dodger Stadium. This season at home he owns a 7-1 team win/loss record, an ERA of 1.79, and a WHIP of .092.

The Dodgers have been virtually unbeatable at home in 2017 at 33-11. They have won 12 of their last 13 home games and have covered the -1.5 runline in their last nine Dodger Stadium victories.

Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-140)

Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season To Date: 82-70-7

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs (5-4, 3.69 ERA, $49)

With all of the problems the Chicago Cubs are having during the first half of this season, Jon Lester continues to be the anchor they need in their starting rotation.

The Cubs have won his last four starts and he owns a 2.42 ERA and a .088 WHIP during that four-game span. He's also been great at home where the Cubs are 6-3 in his nine starts at Wrigley Field this season with an ERA of 2.68 and a WHIP of 1.02.

Lester and the Cubs are available today at -140 at home against Chris Archer and the Tampa Bay Rays.

Slumping: Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers (6-6, 3.11 ERA, $-334)

Rangers' starter Yu Darvish is not slumping the way pitchers who appear in this section are usually slumping. He owns a 3.50 ERA over his last three starts and included in those three outings was seven innings of two-hit pitching on the road against the Yankees.

However, the Rangers have lost six of his last seven trips to the hill. Decent personal performances or not, that qualifies as a Slumping Starting Pitcher.

Darvish and the Rangers are -130 favorites against David Price and the Red Sox tonight in Arlington.

Tuesday's Top Trends

* The Chicago Cubs are 22-5 in Jon Lester's last 27 home starts. -145 today vs. Rays.
* The Chicago White Sox are 8-1 in the last 9 meetings in Oakland. +140 today @ A's.
* Under is 18-1-2 in Yu Darvish's last 21 starts vs. American League East. Red Sox/Rangers Total: 9.
* The Cincinnati Reds are 5-22 in their last 27 road games. +135 today @ Rockies.

Weather To Keep An Eye On

There could be some thunderstorms popping up in some major league cities today. There is a 45 percent chance of rain with possible thunderstorms this afternoon in D.C. where the Nationals are hosting the Mets. Luckily, this game is an 11 a.m. start so they may finish before the storms roll in. There is a 40 percent chance of rain with possible thunderstorms in Minneapolis where the Twins are hosting the Angels for an afternoon game. Finally, there is a 50 percent chance of rain and a possibility of thunderstorms developing in Philadelphia where the Phillies are scheduled to host the Pirates late this afternoon.

Wind may be a factor in Cleveland for this evening's interleague game between the Padres and the Indians. There is a 12-14 mile per hour pitcher's wind in the forecast blowing in from right field. The total tonight is set at 8.5.

The daily weather check for Wrigley Field is showing a 10 mile per hour breeze blowing straight in from center field. The total hit the betting boards this morning at 7.5.

Ump Of The Day

Gabe Morales will be calling balls and strike today in Milwaukee where the Brewers are hosting the Orioles for an Independence Day interleague matchup. This game screams Over with Baltimore's terrible pitching staff and both teams' ability to hit the baseball.

Adding to that story is Morales behind the plate. The Over is 6-2-1 in his last nine games behind the plate, Over is 8-2-2 in his last 12 interleague games behind the plate, and Over has cashed in his last four games in pads involving the Orioles.

The total today in Milwaukee is set at 10.