MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Tuesday, June 13th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Braves @ Nationals
Dickey is 1-1, 6.07 in his last five starts; over is 6-2-1 in his last nine. Braves are 2-3 in his road starts. Atlanta’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-4-2
Ross is 2-2, 5.56 in his last four starts (over 5-2). Nationals’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-2.
Atlanta lost three of its last four games; over is 5-2 in their last seven road games. Washington lost its last four games; under is 8-1 in their last nine home games.
Rockies @ Pirates
Chatwood is 3-1, 2.84 in his last four starts; Colorado is 4-3 in his road starts. Under is 4-1-2 in his last seven starts. Rockies’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-6.
Cole is 1-2, 10.89 in his last four starts (under 10-3); Pirates are 4-2 in his home starts. 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-10-2.
Colorado won seven of last nine games; over is 11-5-1 in their last 17 road games. Pirates won their last three games. Eight of their last 11 games went over.
Cubs @ Mets
Lester is 0-2, 7.98 in his last three starts; three of his last four stayed under. Cubs are 1-4 in his road starts— their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-7-2
Wheeler is 2-1, 2.48 in his last six starts (over 7-3-1); Mets are 2-4 in his home starts- 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-4.
Chicago lost five of last six overall; they lost nine in a row on the road. Under is 9-2-1 in their last 12 road games. Mets won five of last six games; under is 5-1 in their last six games.
Brewers @ Cardinals
Nelson is 2-0, 1.71 in his last three starts (under 6-5-1); Milwaukee split his four road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-6-1. Second game pitcher hasn’t been announced.
Lynn is 0-2, 3.68 in his last five starts; Cardinals are 2-2 in his home starts. Over is 6-2 in his last eight starts. 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-5-1. Gonzales is making his first ’17 start; he is 4-2, 4.82 in 11 MLB games (6 starts, 5 in ’14). He is 1-3, 2.97 in six AAA starts this season.
Milwaukee lost three of last four games, is 6-3 in road series openers. Over is 3-1 in their last four games. St Louis won its last five home games, is 4-7 n home series openers. Under is 5-2 in their last seven home games.
Reds @ Padres
Feldman is 3-0, 4.03 in his last four starts; over is 3-1-1 in his road starts. Reds are 2-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-5-2.
Richard is 1-2, 5.94 in his last three starts; Padres split his six home starts (over 4-2). 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-7-1.
Reds lost their last seven road games; over is 11-4 in their last 15 games. San Diego lost seven of last nine games; over is 9-1 in their last ten games.
American League
Rays @ Blue Jays
Faria allowed one run 6.1 IP (95 PT) in his MLB debut against the White Sox. 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-0
Estrada is 0-2, 12.46 in his last two starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Toronto split his six home starts; their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-6-3.
Rays won five of last six games, are 6-4 in road series openers- their last five games went over the total. Toronto is 7-3 in its last ten home games, 4-2 in last six home series openers. Under is 6-1-1 in their last eight games.
Rangers @ Astros
Martinez is making first start since May 30; he is 1-1, 5.75 in his last four starts (under 5-3). 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-5-1.
Peacock is starting here on 3 days’ rest; he threw 76 pitches Friday. Peacock is 1-1, 5.00 in four starts this year (over 2-2): 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-2
Rangers won their last five road games; their last six road tilts stayed under. Houston lost five of last seven games; over is 8-4 in their last 12 games.
Mariners @ Twins
Bergman is 2-1, 2.00 in his last three starts (under 4-2). 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-3
Gibson is 2-0, 3.18 in his last three starts; over is 6-1 in his last seven. Minnesota lost his last four home starts. 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-3-2
Seattle won seven of last nine games; under is 5-2-1 in their last eight road games. Minnesota lost its last five home games (over 4-0-1).
Orioles @ White Sox
Asher is 1-3, 1-3, 6.20 in five starts this year (under 4-1). 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-3-1
Holland is 0-3, 10.38 in his last three starts; over is 7-1 in his last eight. Chicago is 1-3 in his home starts— their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-6-1 (1-5 last six)
Orioles lost their last ten road games; over is 10-3 in their last 13 games. White Sox are 3-9 in last 12 games; over is 10-4-2 in their last 16 home games.
New York @ LA Angels
Sabathia is 5-0, 1.41 in his last five starts; Under is 5-1 in his last six. NY is 5-2 in his road starts; their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-5
Ramirez is 3-1, 5.48 in his last four starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. Angels are 3-2 in his home starts. 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-4-3
New York won its last six games, scoring 60 runs- four of their last five games went over. Angels lost four of last five home games; three of their last five games went over.
Interleague
A’s @ Marlins
Cotton is 0-3, 7.66 in his last four starts; over is 4-1-1 in his last six starts. A’s are2-3 in his road starts; their 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-6-1
Urena is 3-0, 7.45 in his last four starts; Miami scored 33 runs in those four games, which all went over. Marlins split his four home starts. 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-2
Oakland is 2-8 in its last 10 road games, 2-8 in road series openers. Over is 8-1-1 in their last ten games. Miami won seven of last eight home games; they’re 3-7 in home series openers. Over is 4-2 in their last six games.
Phillies @ Red Sox
Lively is 1-1, 2.57 in his first two MLB starts (under 2-0). 1st 5-inning record with him: 0-2
Price is 1-1, 5.29 in three starts this year (over 1-1-1). 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-1
Phillies lost their last six games; under is 4-3 in their last seven games. Boston won eight of last ten games; four of their last five games went over.
Dodgers @ Indians
Dodgers won last seven Kershaw starts (4-0, 1.85); three of his last four stayed under. LA is 5-1 in his road starts. 1st 5-inning record with him: 9-2-2
Bauer is 1-1, 4.67 in his last four starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight. Indians are 3-2 in his home starts; their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-5-1
Dodgers won their last four games, are 3-6 in road series openers. Under is 5-2 in their last seven road games. Cleveland won six of last eight home games; they’re 4-6 in home series openers. Under is 6-3-1 in their last ten games.
Diamondbacks @ Tigers
Greinke is 6-1, 3.59 in his last seven starts (under 5-1-1); Arizona is 2-3 in his road starts. 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-4-2
Farmer is 2-0, 0.00 (13 IP) in two starts, vs Angels/White Sox (under 2-0). 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-0
Arizona is off a 5-1 homestand; they’re 6-3 in road series openers. Over is 6-1 in their last seven games. Detroit lost four of last six games, is 6-3 in home series openers. Over is 7-3 in their last ten games.
Royals @ Giants
Vargas is 3-0, 1.83 in his last three starts (under 9-3). Royals are 3-2 in his road starts. 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-4-1
Blach is 4-1, 2.70 in his last five starts; over is 3-0-1 in his last four. Giants are 2-3 in his home starts. 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-3
Royals won four of last six games, are 3-6 in road series openers. Over is 6-1 in their last seven games. Giants lost five of last six home games, are 4-5 in home series openers. Under is 9-6-1 in their last 16 home games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Atl-Wsh: Dickey 7-5; Ross 5-2
Col-Pitt: Chatwood 6-7; Cole 6-7
Chi-NY: Lester 6-7; Wheeler 5-6
Mil-StL: unknown Nelson 5-7; Gonzales 0-0 Lynn 5-7
Cin-SD: Feldman 5-8; Richard 5-8
American League
TB-Tor: Faria 1-0; Estrada 6-7
Tex-Hst: Martinez 4-4; Peacock 3-1
Sea-Min: Bergman 3-3; Gibson 5-5
Balt-Chi: Asher 1-4; Holland 5-7
NY-LA: Sabathia 10-2; Ramirez 7-4
Interleague
A’s-Mia: Cotton 3-7; Urena 5-2
Phil-Bos: Lively 1-1; Price 1-2
LA-Clev: Kershaw 11-2; Bauer 6-6
Az-Det: Greinke 9-4; Farmer 2-0
KC-SF: Vargas 8-4; Blach 4-5
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
Atl-Wsh: Dickey 4-12; Ross 4-7
Col-Pitt: Chatwood 2-13; Cole 3-13
Chi-NY: Lester 4-13; Wheeler 4-11
Mil-StL: unknown Nelson 2-12; Gonzales 0-0 Lynn 4-12
Cin-SD: Feldman 2-13; Richard 3-13
American League
TB-Tor: Faria 1-1; Estrada 6-13
Tex-Hst: Martinez 2-8; Peacock 1-4
Sea-Min: Bergman 0-6; Gibson 2-10
Balt-Chi: Asher 1-5; Holland 3-12
NY-LA: Sabathia 3-12; Ramirez 9-11
Interleague
A’s-Mia: Cotton 5-10; Urena 1-7
Phil-Bos: Lively 1-2; Price 0-3
LA-Clev: Kershaw 4-13; Bauer 2-12
Az-Det: Greinke 1-13; Farmer 0-2
KC-SF: Vargas 2-12; Blach 2-9
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 34-16 AL, favorites +$51
AL @ NL– 35-31 AL, favorites -$396
Total: 67-46 AL, favorites -$345
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 30-24-1
AL @ NL: Over 37-25-1
Total: Over 67-49-2
Armadillosports.com
MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays
Sometimes a team just has a pitchers number. That certainly is the case when it comes to Tampa Bay Rays swinging away at Marco Estrada offerings. Rays have tagged Estrada for 9 long-ball, 24 runs winning six consecutive vs Jays with the hurler starting. Estrada hitting a rough spot recently off back-2-back losses allowing 11 earned runs over 9 1/3 innings Jays are not a peg to hang your hopes on in this one.
Tuesday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Mets (4-0 past four games)
The Mets pulled off a three-game sweep in Atlanta, which is nice, but not terribly impressive considering the Braves are a subpar team. A 6-1 win over the defending champion Cubs at Citi Field on Monday was certainly a solid victory, however, and the Mets pitching allowed exactly one run for the fourth consecutive outing. They'll look to keep it going in Tuesday's middle game against left-handed Jon Lester. They're catching the Cubs, one game below .500, at a good time. They're 3-14 over their past 17 road games, 1-5 in their past six against a right-handed starter and 0-7 in their past seven on the road vs. RHP. The Cubbies are also 1-5 over Lester's past six assignments away from the Friendly Confines. The Mets are just 2-6 over Zack Wheeler's past eight home outings, but 5-2 in his past seven at home against a team with a losing overall mark.
Coldest team Phillies (0-6 past six games)
The Phillies surprised behind Jerad Eickhoff in Monday's interleague series opener at Fenway Park, but they were still tripped up 6-5 in 11 innings as Dustin Pedroia lifted the home team to a win. It was Philadelphia's sixth consecutive setback, although three of their past four losses have come by a mere run. The Phillies have dropped six consecutive interleague games, they're 1-7 in their past eight interleague games vs. LHP and they're 0-4 in their past four tries against American League East squads. They are also a dismal 3-13 in their past 16 interleague road outings vs. LHP.
Hottest pitcher: Jason Vargas, Royals (8-3, 2.18 ERA)
Vargas puts his 8-3 record and 2.18 ERA on the line in Tuesday's visit to San Francisco. With Houston's Dallas Keuchel (9-0, 1.67 ERA) on the 10-day disabled list, Vargas has the best ERA in the majors among healthy pitchers. The Apple Valley, Calif. native has been decent on the road, going 3-2 with a 2.73 ERA over five starts with just seven walks and 23 strikeouts over 29 2/3 innings. However, Vargas has been a bit more hittable on the road than at home, posting a .257 opponent batting average on the road as opposed to a .227 mark at Kauffman Stadium. So far in June the southpaw has posted a 2-0 mark with a 1.29 ERA in two outings.
Coldest pitcher: Trevor Bauer, Indians (5-5, 6.10 ERA)
Bauer has a .500 record, which isn't horrible, but his ERA could certainly use a little bit of work. He is 3-1 at Progressive Field this season over five outings, but he has a 5.52 ERA with six home runs allowed in just 29 1/3 innings while the opposition is hitting .276 against him. He is a dismal 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA in two starts in the month of June, lasting a total of just five innings. Things certainly do not look to get easier for him on Tuesday, as he'll be opposed by Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers.
Biggest UNDER run: Nationals (7-1 past eight games)
The 'under' certainly did not come in for the Nationals and total bettors on Monday, as the Braves and Nationals got together for a baseball game and a slow-pitch softball game broke out. When the dust settled it was Atlanta coming away with an 11-10 victory, which was surprising considering the Nationals had Stephen Strasburg on the hill. The 'over' result snapped a seven-game 'under' run by Washington. In fact, Nationals pitching had allowed just 19 total runs in the previous seven outings before being tagged for 11 runs. The 'under' will be put to the test again, as the 'over' is 7-1-1 over Joe Ross' past nine starts overall, including 6-0-1 in his past seven home starts against a team with a losing record. However, the under is 8-1-1 in Washington's past 10 at home, and 7-2 in their past nine following up a loss.
Biggest OVER run: Padres (7-0 past seven games, 9-1 past 10 overall)
The 'over' hit for the seventh consecutive outing in San Diego's 9-3 win against Cincinnati on Monday. In fact, the 'over' hit by the end of the second inning, allowing bettors to breathe easy. If only all wagers were so worry-free. With veteran retreads Scott Feldman and Clayton Richard on the hill Tuesday, another high-scoring game could be in the offing. The over is 4-0 in Cincinnati's past four, 6-0-1 in their past seven vs. LHP and 3-1-1 in Feldman's past five road outings. The over is 5-1 in San Diego's past six at home vs. RHP, 4-0 in their past four overall against a righty and 3-0-1 in Richard's past four assignments against the 'Nati.
Matchup to watch: Astros vs. Rangers
The Lone Star State rivalry rages on Tuesday at Minute Maid Park, and the Rangers look to stay hot and try and make up ground on their rivals. The Rangers kicked off the latest installment of the rivalry with a 6-1 win on Monday. After an ice-cold streak to follow their 10-game winning run from May 9-19, the Rangers are starting to heat up again. Texas has rattled off four wins in a row, including an impressive three-game road interleague sweep against the pitching-heavy Nationals. The Astros have cooled considerably, going 2-5 over their past seven outings since their impressive 11-game run from May 25 to June 5. They are plowing on despite losses to top pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers Jr.
Betcha didn’t know: The Rays and Blue Jays have already met 10 times this season, splitting those outings. Both teams have been playing well lately, but it's the pitching matchup to watch. Jacob Faria was summoned from Triple-A Durham to start Tuesday, as Matt Andriese (hip) is expected to be sidelined until August with a stress reaction in his hip. Faria posted a 6-1 mark with a 3.07 ERA with a whopping 84 strikeouts over just 58 2/3 innings with the Bulls. He'll be opposed by veteran Marco Estrada, who has been pounded for 11 runs and 16 hits in just 9 1/3 innings across two outings in June. The poundings could continue, as he is just 1-6 in his career against Tampa Bay.
Biggest public favorite: Red Sox (-250) vs. Phillies
Biggest public underdog: Royals (+120) at Giants
Biggest line move: Nationals (-185 to -220) vs. Braves
Dave's MLB Tuesday
By Dave Essler
Nationals/Braves: If I was going to fade Washington it would probably be when Ross is pitching. Washington has had some good games against Dickey and some bad ones, and just in this season. The good thing about Dickey is that he can throw til his arm falls off so he generally keeps the bullpen out longer than most Atlanta starters. Ross has given up five or more earned runs in four of his last six starts, so just with that there is no chance of laying -200 with someone like that. The over may be the play, but I'd like 9 a whole lot better.
Rockies/Pirates: There was a time we (I) wouldn't think of fading Cole at home, but with the way he's pitched over the last month there is zero chance I bet on the Pirates. The very fact that he opened -110 at home is telling enough. I don't think at first glance it's the gift it looks like. Chatwood has been very good over the last month, save one bad one against Seattle. He's a ground ball pitcher and in this bigger park he could be in the right place at the right time, all things predicated on Monday bullpen usage. The total ticked up from 8.5 to 9 rather quickly, and if it is indeed higher scoring one would have to think that favors Colorado.
Cubs/Mets: I've always felt Lester was over priced more often than not, and the early money was/is all on the Cubs. That is probably as much disrespect for Wheeler as it is love for the Cubs, but Lester has been giving up runs, not pitching deep, and not been good on the road this season - so it will ultimately be the Mets, the total, or pass. Wheeler hasn't bee giving up a lot of runs, but his fly ball ratio has gone up lately and he's off two very high pitch count games. It looks to me like this one could be decided late by the bullpens. I lean to the first-five under, since the Cubs haven't seen as much of Wheeler as I'd have thought.
Reds/Padres: Feldman is the enigma that keeps on giving year after year. He shut out the Cardinals at home last week, and was hit hard by the Phillies, and that pattern is consistent from year to year. He's off a high pitch-count game and hasn't been solid on the road, so taking the Reds is going to be difficult if not impossible. Richard is also an enigma, but he's held down the D-Backs (twice) and Texas, so the ability is there. His last outing was quite predictable, since it was the third time this season Arizona had seen him, and it was on the heels of a very taxing game.
Rays/Jays: I really like what Faria did in the Minors and was all about him last week against the White Sox and may well be here as well. I'm not a fan of the Tampa Bay pen so we might have to consider the Rays F5, but they are rested, having had Monday off. Without Kiermaier or Brad Miller it does make it tougher, but against a RHP with their lefties all in play this may be a great spot at a great price. Tampa Bay has already beaten Estrada this season, but it might have been long enough ago (April) that I can't use the "pitcher makes adjustments" angle. He is indeed a fly ball pitcher and when the Rays score they hit it over the fence. The caveat is the Jays' pen, which has been excellent on that six game West Coast trip.
White Sox/Orioles: I can honestly say that backing Asher on the road after two significantly high pitch count games is not likely to happen. The only upside to Holland is that at home he has been considerably better. Trumbo has destroyed him (there is your fantasy star for the night) but other than that he's held most of the Oriole lineup to respectability. His stock can't get much lower, and although the Chicago bullpen hasn't been where we'd like it to be, the Baltimore back end has been worse. Assuming nothing dramatic happens Monday that might change things, it will be the White Sox or nothing.
Seattle/Minnesota: These teams and these pitchers faced each other last week in Seattle, with the Twins winning the game 2-1. I was on the over, much to my chagrin, and it seems like the early bettors are this game as well. It's probably what you'd expect bettors to think in that the teams will make the adjustments in such a short turnaround/rematch. Gibson's WHIP is unacceptable, but what's puzzling to me is that he tends to keep the ball down and in the park, which would make it tough for me to take Seattle on the road here. The Twins' bullpen hasn't been very good, while Seattle's has, so this has F5 over or a clear pass written on it.
Yankees/Angels: Because Aaron Judge has been on SportsCenter every night it seems to me that the New York Yankees stock is too high. I do know what Sabathia has done but I am also not going to over react to what could be inevitable regression and start taking a -140 road favorite. The upside for New York is that their bullpen has been great over the last week. I do, however, like Ramirez's ability to not beat himself with extra and unnecessary base runners (walks). Add that to the fact that the Angels pen has been up to par of late and I see this as a lower scoring game, so you "under" totals guys might want to consider that one.
Miami/Oakland: Obviously the A's lose the DH in the National League park, and they get a day off on South Beach to lick their wounds from the Rays' series. To their credit, they did bang our double-digit hits in the last three games against Tampa Bay. Stanton is questionable for Miami, but to be honest in my opinion he is only behind Heyward in the "most overpaid" category. Cotton tends to walk too many for my liking, and Urena hasn't pitched deep often enough to keep the terrible Fish bullpen out of the equation long enough, so my inclination here is to look at the over. With two marginal offenses in an NL park, the total opens and stays at 9, which is high and perhaps for a good reason.
Philadelphia/Boston: Price threw an awful lot of pitches in his last start. Or, more specifically, a lot for someone that hasn't likely got his timing yet. Normally, 107 is status quo for him. He's also allowed at least on HR in all three starts, all of which would be a reason to take the Phillies. However, this is his first start in Fenway so there will be some extra energy, so you'd have to expect Boston to win this one. Lively has looked pretty good, but he gets the ball up and this is not the park to do that, and as a young kid going against a stud pitcher in Fenway for the first time, unless he's truly got ice water in his veins Philadelphia could be in trouble.
Dodgers/Indians: I'd almost always try to find a way not to take Kershaw, or to take the over which is usually lower by .5 run whenever he pitches. So now there's no pitcher (a DH in the AL park) to work around, so that might be a viable option. In his last start at home against the Nationals he had only two GB outs and 13 FB outs, which for him is quite surprising. In Dodger Stadium he can get away with that, but in Cleveland perhaps not. Bauer has been more than hittable all season, and he's been someone I've looked to fade whenever I could. Both bullpens have been almost elite most of the season, so either Bauer is going to rise to the occasion and it will be a low scoring game, or he's going to get killed. I'm inclined to look at the F5 under since there really is no familiarity at all with these lineups/pitchers.
Arizona/Detroit: The Tigers played well Sunday night at Boston, or did they? The hung eight on Boston, but Norris escaped many times and Detroit failed to capitalize many times. Even the grand slam Upton hit was a fortunate, almost check-swing shot, off the right field foul pole. The first thing to look at here is that Detroit saw a ton of Grienke when he was with the Royals, and of course there's no pitcher to work around. I do think Detroit scores, so the wild card here is Farmer. I have to wonder is he can throw another six-inning shut out as he did is first two starts. The history might suggest otherwise, but as you know I don't bet on the "due theory" so I would assume that at home he'll be fine, so it's probably the Tigers' game to lose.
Royals/Giants: The Royals get a day off after the series at San Diego, which they hope isn't a bad thing since they hit seven home runs in their last two games against the Padres. People have wanted to fade Vargas game after game, and admittedly I've been one of them. However, he's still only had one really bad outing, so it's back to not betting on what could happen but rather was has happened. The Giants' bullpen has been much, much better of late, so in my opinion this game is pretty much all on Vargas. Blach has been a good surprise, but as I would have thought his high pitch-count game(s) caught up with him last week at Milwaukee. Neither team is particularly good against LHP's - so it's back to Vargas, and given that the Royals have been hitting, I can see taking them for the F5 here if nothing else.
Cubs face red-hot Mets
By: StatFox.com
The Cubs will be looking to get right back to the .500 mark with a win over the Mets on Tuesday.
The Mets will be going for their fifth straight win when they host the Cubs on Tuesday. They defeated this Chicago team 6-1 on Monday night, and they have Jacob deGrom to thank for that one. The righty was brilliant in that game, and they’ll be hoping that RHP Zack Wheeler (3-3, 3.45 ERA, 56 K) can turn in a similar performance on Tuesday night. Wheeler will, however, be tasked with outdueling LHP Jon Lester (3-4, 4.13 ERA, 76 K) in this one. That is no easy task for Wheeler, but this would be the easiest time for him to do just that. Lester has severely underperformed this season, and he has not looked like the ace he was a year ago. Chicago needs that to change in order to turn things around and put themselves back in the World Series contender conversation. One trend that favors the Cubs in this game is that the Mets are a lousy 11-16 against the money line at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season. The Mets are, however, lucky enough to be facing a Cubs team that is 1-8 against the money line in road games after a five-game span with an OBP of .285 or worse on the year.
The Cubs are trying to find themselves right now, and they can use a victory over the Mets on Tuesday. A good performance from Lester is crucial in order for that to happen, but the lefty can’t possibly be feeling great right now. Lester has allowed three or more earned runs in each of his past three starts, and he actually allowed four in just five innings of work last game. Lester is no longer working deep enough into his appearances, and the Cubs need that to change. One major issue for him has been walks, as he has put three or more batters on in three of his starts. He’ll need to be better with his control on Tuesday. Offensively, Chicago desperately needs some bats to wake up. That starts with OF Kyle Schwarber (.170 BA, 11 HR, 26 RBI), who has been absolutely dreadful this season. Schwarber is supposed to be one of the Cubs’ best hitters, but he has been a liability at the plate this year. If he doesn’t turn it around then it’s possible Chicago will struggle to turn things around. The Cubs also need more from 3B Kris Bryant (.268 BA, 14 HR, 27 RBI). Bryant is on pace to have just 69 RBI this season, and that is unacceptable for the NL MVP from last season. He had 102 RBI a year ago, and he also hit .292. The Cubs need him to creep back towards those numbers.
The Mets are rolling right now, but they still have a ton of work to do in order to climb back into the playoff picture. A victory against Chicago on Tuesday would, however, help this team’s confidence a ton. The Mets will have a good shot to earn this win, as Zack Wheeler has been pitching great recently. The righty has allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his past seven starts, and he has given the Mets at least six innings of work in three straight contests. Wheeler seems to finally be living up to his potential, and that is huge news for New York. Offensively, look for both 2B Neil Walker (.271 BA, 8 HR, 32 RBI) and OF Jay Bruce (.267 BA, 17 HR, 45 RBI) to contribute in this one. Both guys have been swinging hot bats for the Mets, and they’ll need to keep it up moving forward.
MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com
Double Play-Picks
Los Angeles Dodgers at Cleveland Indians (+145, 7.5)
It's been a rough last few days for our MLB picks, but what better way to turn things around than to back Mr. Kershaw - especially when you can get him at relatively decent value.
When submitting a pick involving Clayton Kershaw we could spend several pages listing all of his stats and accomplishments in order to back up the pick. We're not sure that's really necessary. The most important stats to know when you are picking Kershaw to win are whether or not he's in a slump (which he never really is) and whether or not the Dodgers are playing well.
Well, the Dodgers have won four in a row overall and sit just a single game behind the Colorado Rockies for first in the strong National League West at 39-25. They have won 10 of Kershaw's last 11 starts overall and the last time they lost one of his road starts was way back on April 8.
The Indians, on the other hand, are dealing with their World Series hangover. They are currently above .500 at 31-29 and are also only one game behind in their division - and their division is certainly more winnable than that of the Dodgers.
Nobody can really put their finger on why this is the case, but the Cleveland Indians really struggle with interleague play. Perhaps their advanced scouting department is spending more time drinking and partying on the road than actually scouting their unfamiliar opponents. Whatever the reason, the Indians are only 1-10 in their last 11 interleague games and they have lost Trevor Bauer's last five starts against National League foes.
Bauer is capable of winning ball games, but he's a high ERA guy (6.10 this season and 5.52 at home) who grinds out games and wins because of his team's offense. If he gives up more than one or two runs today he's in trouble.
Pick: Dodgers -160
Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres (+102, 8 )
The Padres are hosting the Reds for a mid-week series and it was San Diego which struck first with a 9-3 thumping of Cincinnati on Monday night. Can the Padres offense keep rolling, or will it be the Reds bats that bounce back on Tuesday?
The Padres rank last in the majors in runs and average, scoring just 3.6 runs per game and hitting .228 as a team. But have been much better over their last 14 games, scoring almost four and a half runs per game.
The Padres pitching on the other hand, which ranks dead last in team ERA, has not seen the same uptick, allowing 7.6 runs per game over their last 10 outings. They send Clayton Richard to the mound for Tuesday’s game. The southpaw is 4-7 with a 4.54 ERA and has given up 10 earned runs in his last three starts.
Richard gets to face a Reds lineup that has been solid all season long, rankings sixth in runs, ninth in batting average, fourth in OPS and fifth in homers. The Reds have also hit the second most home runs off of left-handed pitching in the MLB this season.
The Reds counter with right-hander Scott Feldman. While Feldman is coming off a strong start against the Cardinals, he has been highly inconsistent this season, posting quality starts in back-to-back outings only once.
Oh, and there are these tidbits. The Over is 7-0 in the Padres last seven games overall and 9-1 in their last 10. The Over is also 4-0 in the Reds last four games overall, 7-3 in their last 10 and 8-0 in their last 8 versus National League West opponents.
Pick: Over 8
Yesterday's Picks: 0-2
Season To Date: 59-52-6
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: CC Sabathia, New York Yankees (7-2, 3.66 ERA, $872)
CC Sabathia currently ranks second in our Starter Money Standings at $872 and, with Lance McCullers Jr. currently on the disabled list with a sore back, Sabathia is actually the highest active starting pitcher on our list.
Over CC's last five starts the Yankees are 5-0 and he owns a very impressive 1.11 ERA and a WHIP of 0.966.
Sabathia and the Yankees are on the West Coast and are available at -135 tonight in Anaheim against the Angels.
Slumping: Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates (3-6, 4.83 ERA, $-122)
Gerrit Cole's last four starts have been ugly, ugly, ugly, and ugly.
Cole has been unable to get past 5.0 innings since way back on May 17 and over his last four outings he has an ERA of 10.71 and a WHIP of 2.379. That WHIP is horrible, but the most alarming issue may be his lack of strikeouts - over his last five starts he has only recorded 19 K's for an average of 3.8 per start.
Cole and the Pirates are actually favorites today at home (-125) against Tyler Chatwood and the road warrior Colorado Rockies.
Tuesday's Top Trends
* The Philadelphia Phillies are 3-13 in their last 16 games at Fenway Park in Boston. +220 today @ Red Sox.
* Over is 8-0 in the last eight meetings between the Braves and Nationals in Washington. ATL/WAS Total: 9.5.
* The Chicago Cubs are 3-14 in their last 17 road games. -135 today @ Mets.
* Over is 7-0 in the San Diego Padres' last 7 overall. Reds/Padres Total: 8.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
There is a 60 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms this afternoon in St. Louis where the Brewers and Cardinals will be playing a pair of games today. The system rolling through could impact the afternoon contest. There is also a chance of thunderstorms developing and a 60 percent chance of rain for most of the evening in Minneapolis where the Twins and Mariners will attempt to get their game in.
Wind may be a bit of a factor in Queens today where there will be a 10-15 mile per hour wind blowing in from left field for the game between the Mets and Cubs. The total is currently 8.5.
As usual, there will be a hitter's wind of 15 miles per hour blowing straight out to center field at AT&T Park in San Francisco for the matchup between the Royals and Giants. The total for this one is currently set at 7.5.
Ump Of The Day
Rob Drake: Great news for the Yankees tonight as all of home plate umpire Rob Drake's recent numbers seem to be pointing in their direction. The Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 contests with Drake working the dish and, conversely, the Los Angeles Angels have lost five of their last six games with Drake calling balls and strikes. The Yankees have also won five of CC Sabathia's last six starts (dating back to 2014) with Drake behind the plate.