MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, June 20th, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Cardinals @ Phillies
Leake is 0-4, 6.57 in his last four starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. St Louis is 4-2 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-4-1

Hellickson is 0-4, 8.23 in his last five starts (under 8-4-2). Phillies are 5-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-8

Cardinals lost five of last six games, are 3-7 in road series openers- their last six games went over the total. Philly lost 11 of last 12 games; they’re 2-9 in home series openers. Under is 3-1-2 in their last six games.

Nationals @ Marlins
Gonzalez is 3-0, 2.84 in his last four starts; over is 5-2 in his road starts. Nationals are 5-2 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 10-2-2

Volquez is 3-0, 2.08 in his last four starts; under is 7-2 in his last nine. Miami is 4-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-7-1

Washington is 11-4 in its last 15 road games, but lost last two; over is 7-1 in their last eight games. Miami won its last six home games; over is 5-2-1 in their last eight home games.

Giants @ Braves
Moore is 0-3, 7.96 in his last five starts; four of his last six went over. Giants are 1-7 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-10-2

Teheran is 3-0, 4.81 in his last four starts; Braves scored 35 runs in those games – over is 8-1-1 in his last 10 starts. Atlanta is 2-5 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-5-2

Giants lost nine of last ten games; over is 6-2 in their last eight games. Atlanta won four of last five games; under is 8-3 in their last 11 games.

Pirates @ Brewers
Kuhl is 0-4, 5.67 in his last seven starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Pirates are 0-5 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-7-2

Davies is 2-0, 4.50 in his last three starts (over 10-4). Milwaukee is 4-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-5-3

Pirates are 6-3 in their last nine games; under is 4-1-1 in their last six games. Milwaukee won five of its last seven games; over is 5-1-1 in their last seven games.

Padres @ Cubs
Chacin is 2-0, 2.57 in his last two starts; over is 7-3 in his last ten. San Diego is 3-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-8-2

Montgomery is 0-0, 5.00 in two starts this year (over 1-1). Cubs’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-0-1

San Diego lost eight of last ten road games; over is 5-2 in their last seven road games. Cubs won three of last four games; over is 7-5 in their last 12 games.

Diamondbacks @ Rockies
Greinke is 2-0, 5.29 in his last three starts; under is 5-2-1 in his last eight. Arizona is 3-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-4-2

Marquez is 5-1, 3.11 in his last seven starts; under is 6-3 in his last nine. Colorado is 2-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-3-2

Arizona won its last seven games, is 8-3 in road series openers. Under is 10-5-2 in their last 17 road games. Colorado won its last five games; they’re 8-3 in home series openers. Over is 6-2-1 in last nine games at Coors Field.

Mets @ Dodgers
Gsellman is 3-1, 4.13 in his last four starts (over 9-3, 1-3 in last 4). Mets are 3-1 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-6

McCarthy is 2-2, 1.57 in his last five starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. LA is 5-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-4-1

Mets lost five of their last seven games; six of their last seven games went over. Dodgers won 10 of last 11 games; over is 9-1 in their last ten games.

American League

Angels @ New York
Bridwell allowed three runs in six IP (92 PT) in his first MLB start, vs Atlanta. Angels’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-0

Pineda is 4-1, 4.95 in his last six starts (over 5-1); New York is 6-1 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-6

Angels lost three of last four games, are 5-6 in road series openers. Over is 3-1 in their last four road games. New York lost its last six games, but is 7-1 in last eight home games, 6-4 in home series openers. Over is 5-2 in New York’s last seven home games.

Indians @ Orioles
Tomlin is 2-5, 5.31 in his last seven starts; his last three road starts stayed under. Indians are 2-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-8-1

Tillman is 0-5, 11.70 in his last five starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Orioles are 2-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-5-2

Indians won their last six games; under is 4-2 in their last six road games. Baltimore is 3-9 in its last 12 games; last seven Oriole home games went over.

Blue Jays @ Rangers
Toronto won last six Liriano starts (2-0, 6.51), last five of which went over. Blue Jays are 2-2 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him:

Martinez is 1-1, 6.46 in his last three starts (under 6-3). Texas is 3-1 in his home starts- Rangers’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-6-1

Toronto won its last three road games; four of their last five games went over. Texas won seven of last ten games; over is 12-1-1 in their last 14 home games.

White Sox @ Twins
Holland is 1-3, 7.58 in his last four starts; over is 7-2 in his last nine. Chicago is 4-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-6-1

Santiago is 0-4, 9.55 in his last five starts; over is 7-2 in his last nine. Minnesota is 4-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-7-1

White Sox won five of last seven games, are 4-9 in road series openers. Over is 8-5 in their last 13 road games. Minnesota is 2-10 in its last 12 home games, 5-7 in home series openers. Under is 4-1 in their last five games.

Red Sox @ Royals
Sale is 4-1, 4.59 in his last five starts (over 4-1); Boston is 4-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-2-6

Strahm allowed one run in five IP (68 PT) in his first ’17 start, in Anaheim. Royals’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-0

Red Sox is 7-4 in its last 11 games; four of their last five games stayed under. Kansas City won eight of last nine games; over is 10-3-1 in their last 14 games.

Astros @ A’s
Martes allowed one run in five IP (88 PT) in his first ’17 start, vs Texas. Astros’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-0

Gray is 0-1, 7.04 in his last three starts (over 8-1). A’s are 4-1 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-2

Astros are 5-8 in last 13 games; over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 road games. Oakland won four of its last five games; over is 9-5-1 in their last 15 home games.

Tigers @ Mariners
Zimmerman is 1-1, 2.25 in his last three starts; over is 9-3 in his last 12. Detroit is 0-6 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-6

Miranda is 3-1, 4.03 in his last five starts; under is 6-1 in his last seven. Seattle is 3-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-6

Tigers lost eight of last 11 games; under is 3-1 in their last four games. Mariners are 7-3 in their last 10 home games; their last five home games stayed under.

Interleague

Reds @ Rays
Garrett is 0-3, 12.53 in his last five starts; over is 5-1 in his last six. Reds are 2-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-7-1

Cobb is 1-0, 2.84 in his last two starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Rays are 2-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-4-2

Reds lost nine of their last ten games; over is 11-5 in their last 16 games. Tampa Bay won five of last seven home games; Rays’ last six home games went over the total.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
StL-Phil: Leake 5-8; Hellickson 9-5
Wsh-Mia: Gonzalez 8-6; Volquez 5-8 (4-0 last 4)
SF-Atl: Moore 3-11; Teheran 7-7 (4-0 last 4)
Pitt-Mil: Kuhl 3-10; Davies 9-5
SD-Chi: Chacin 7-7; Montgomery 0-2
Az-Col: Greinke 10-4; Marquez 6-4
NY-LA; Gsellman 7-5; McCarthy 7-4

American League
LAA-NYY: Bridwell 1-0; Pineda 9-4
Clev-Balt: Tomlin 5-8; Tillman 2-6
Tor-Tex: Liriano 7-3; Martinez 5-4
Chi-Minn: Holland 6-7; Santiago 5-7
Bos-KC: Sale 10-4; Strahm 1-0
Hst-A’s: Martes 1-0; Gray 4-5
Det-Sea: Zimmerman 5-8; Miranda 8-6

Interleague
Cin-TB: Garrett 4-7; Cobb 6-8

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
StL-Phil: Leake 2-13; Hellickson 6-14
Wsh-Mia: Gonzalez 5-14; Volquez 6-13
SF-Atl: Moore 5-14; Teheran 5-14
Pitt-Mil: Kuhl 4-13; Davies 4-14
SD-Chi: Chacin 6-14; Montgomery 0-2
Az-Col: Greinke 1-14; Marquez 3-10
NY-LA; Gsellman 6-12; McCarthy 2-11

American League
LAA-NYY: Bridwell 0-1; Pineda 5-13
Clev-Balt: Tomlin 5-13; Tillman 2-5-1
Tor-Tex: Liriano 3-10; Martinez 3-9
Chi-Minn: Holland 4-13; Santiago 3-12
Bos-KC: Sale 1-14; Strahm 1-1
Hst-A’s: Martes 0-1; Gray 1-9
Det-Sea: Zimmerman 5-13; Miranda 5-14

Interleague
Cin-TB: Garrett 6-11; Cobb 3-14

Umpires

National League
Wsh-Mia: Five of last seven Fagan games went over.
SF-Atl: Over is 6-0-1 in last seven Emmel games.
Pitt-Mil: Five of last six Hudson games went over.
SD-Chi: Underdogs are 4-3 (+$232) in last seven Tumpane games.
NY-LA; Under is 6-3 in last nine Ripperger games.

American League
Clev-Balt: Home side won six of last eight Danley games.
Tor-Tex: Underdogs won four of last five Reyburn games.
Bos-KC: Seven of last eight Cederstrom games went over.
Hst-A’s: Under is 7-3-1 in Baker games this season.
Det-Sea: Three of last four Bucknor games stayed under.

Interleague
Cin-TB: Under is 7-4 in last eleven Cuzzi games.

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 38-22 AL, favorites -$182
AL @ NL– 37-35 AL, favorites -$629
Total: 75-57 AL, favorites -$811

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 38-26-1
AL @ NL: Over 41-26-2
Total: Over 79-52-3

Armadillosports.com

MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Cleveland Indians at Baltimore Orioles

When Orioles Chris Tillman takes the mound against Tribes Josh Tomlin Tuesday evening, things bode well for 'Under' gamblers. Despite yesterday's 'Over' the series remains a bankroll-stuffing 12-5 for 'Under' gamblers including 7-1 'Under' in Baltimore. Additionally, Baltimore has a 7-1 'Under' stretch in Tillman's last eight vs. Cleveland while Tribe are 7-1-2 'Under' in Tomlin's last 10 road starts.

Tuesday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Diamondbacks (7-0 past seven games, 10-1 past 11 overall)

The Diamondbacks and Rockies square off at Coors Field in a kay National League West Division battle between two red-hot teams. Arizona has won seven in a row, including each of their past five on the road. However, they're just 2-4 against Colorado this season, dropping a pair of series by a 1-2 count. That includes their most recent trip to Coors Field on May 5-7 when the Rockies outscored the Snakes 17-9. The Rockies punished the Giants in a four-game set at home over the weekend, outscoring the cellar dwellers by a 32-23 count. Colorado has won five in a row, and they're 12-3 over their past 15 contests. Zack Greinke might be the difference, as the D-Backs are 7-1 over his past eight starts and 13-6 over his past 19 road assignments.

Coldest team Yankees (0-6 past six games)

The Yankees were swept in a four-game set against the Athletics in the Bay Area, losing three heartbreaking one-run games. They have dropped six in a row to fritter away their lead in the American League East to just a half of a game. They'll look to rebound against an Angels team that kicked off the losing streak with back-to-back wins over the Yankees in Anaheim on June 13-14. Michael Pineda has been a stopper for the Pinstripers, with the Yankees going 6-0 over his past six home starts against a team with a losing record, and 7-1 in his past eight overall against sub-.500 clubs. The Yanks are also 9-3 over his past 12 outings overall.

Hottest pitcher: Ervin Santana, Twins (8-4, 2.56 ERA)

Santana is just 1-2 with a 6.00 ERA in three outings in the month of June, but his overall body of work has been outstanding this season. He has been even better against the White Sox, who haven't had an answer for him in two previous meetings in 2017. In fact, the White Sox have scraped together just three hits and three walks in 15 scoreless innings against Santana. The Twins are 0-4 over his past four home starts, and they're just 3-10 over his past 13 starts working on five days' rest. However, the Twins are 4-1 over his past five outings against AL Central Division foes and 7-2 in his past nine against teams with a losing overall mark. And the White Sox have dropped five of their past six insider the division, so that bodes well for a Santana bounce-back game.

Coldest pitcher: Matt Moore, Giants (2-7, 6.00 ERA)

The southpaw Moore makes another road start, and that usually doesn't end well for he or the Giants, at least this season. The left-hander is 0-4 with a 9.24 ERA in eight road starts this season, allowing 38 earned runs with seven homers, 19 walks and a .364 opponent batting average over 37 innings. He has gotten progressively worse, going 1-3 with a 4.80 ERA in five starts in April, 1-3 with a 5.14 ERA in six starts in May and 0-1 with an 11.08 ERA in three outings in June so far. He has been tagged to the tune of a .393 opponent average in his three June outings. The Giants are also 1-9 in their past 10 road games against teams with a losing record while going 3-13 in their past 16 vs. RHP.

Biggest UNDER run: Pirates (5-1 past six games overall)

The Pirates have enjoyed an 'under' run lately, as either they are getting solid production from their pitching staff or their offense takes a night off. Gerrit Cole pitched them to an 8-1 road win at Miller Park in the series opener on Monday, and 'under' bettors were treated to a nice win. There were nine runs on the board at the stretch with a total of 9 1/2 last night. Relievers did under bettors a solid with no runs allowed over the final two frames. The 'under' is 6-1-1 in Pittsburgh's past eight overall, and 6-1-1 in their past eight divisional games, too. The under has also hit in five of their past six vs. RHP. The under has also been an impressive 9-1-1 over the past 11 meetings at Miller Park, and 15-5-2 in the past 22 meetings overall.

Biggest OVER run: Rays (9-2-1 past 12 games overall)

The 'over' has been a frequent play for the Rays, as their pitching staff just isn't what it used to be and their offense has been respectable. Tampa Bay was tripped up 7-3 at home against Cincinnati in Monday's interleague home opener, as the Reds snapped a nine-game losing streak. The Rays are allowing 5.2 runs per game over the past 10 outings, and they're averaging 5.8 runs per game on offense over the past 12. That's a nice recipe for success for 'over' bettors. The over has been a frequent happening for Cincinnati lately, too, going 5-1-1 in their past seven road games and 7-2-1 in their past 10 overall. And the over is 5-1 in Amir Garrett's past six outings, while going 4-1 in his past five on the road.

Matchup to watch: Royals vs. Red Sox

The Red Sox look for a little revenge in Game 2 of the series after the Royals won 4-2 in the opener. Chris Sale will toe the slab at Kauffman against rookie Matt Strahm in what appears to be a mismatch on paper. The Red Sox are just 1-4 over their past five vs. LHP, however, although they're 4-1 in Sale's past five outings overall and 5-2 in his past seven tries against teams with a losing overall record. The Royals have been hot lately, winning eight of their past nine overall, but they, too, have struggled at left-handed pitching. They're just 4-9 in their past 13 vs. LHP, including 1-5 over their past six at home against southpaws. The Red Sox have won just two of the past nine meetings overall between the two teams. Total bettors might look to the 'over', which is 10-3-3 in the past 16 meetings, and 6-2-1 in the past nine in K.C.

Betcha didn’t know: Dodgers rookie Cody Bellinger became the quickest player in major league history to reach 21 home runs, needing just 51 games to hit blackjack. His two clouts helped bail out Clayton Kershaw in a surprising slugfest against the Mets in Monday's series opener. Cody's dad, Clay Bellinger, played in the majors from 1999-2002 with the Yankees and Angels, posting just 12 home runs in 183 career games. Bellinger has also recorded five multi-homer games already, with only Mark McGwire producing more games with two or more homers (seven) in his rookie campaign.

Biggest public favorite: Yankees (-240) vs. Angels

Biggest public underdog: Nationals (+105) at Marlins

Biggest line move: Reds (+165 to +140) at Rays

MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Washington (-105) at Miami; Total: 9

We’ll start in the NL East, where the Miami Marlins have once again taken on money in the betting market. Today, it comes with Edinson Volquez on the hill against Gio Gonzalez. Those that did listen to yesterday’s edition of The Bettor’s Box were able to get out in front of this line move, as we’ve seen the Marlins get steamed regularly over the last several weeks.

We saw money hit the Marlins yesterday and they won a crazy 8-7 game to draw first blood in the series. That was a game that Washington led 6-0. Today, we’ve got an ERA/xFIP-induced line move against Gio Gonzalez, who has a 2.89 ERA with a 4.29 FIP and a 4.40 xFIP. Gonzalez has seen some nice strikeout gains this season, but his walk rate has ballooned. He’s carrying the lowest BABIP of his career since 2012, when he had the same .267 mark. He’s got an 84.9 percent LOB%. His velocity is also down for the second straight season. Last year, Gonzalez lost 1.2 mph off of his fastball and has lost another 0.6 mph this season, though it could be even more with the new tracking methods.

He looks like a pitcher in decline, but he’s been able to get out of jams and get more strikeouts this year. The odd thing is that Gonzalez has the lowest first-pitch strike percentage of his career and his swinging strike rate is the lowest it has been since 2010. His Zone% is the lowest of his career and his Zone-Contact% is the highest it has been since 2010. Basically, I don’t believe in the sustainability of anything about Gonzalez and do agree with the market that regression is impending.

Edinson Volquez has a no-hitter to his name this season and also has a 3.72 ERA with a 4.24 FIP and a 4.49 xFIP. Volquez has seen a big spike in strikeouts and a big spike in walks. His changeup is quietly one of the better ones in baseball, but his fastball command has been pretty poor according to the PITCHf/x linear pitch type weights. The big strikeout gain doesn’t include a spike in swings and misses and none of his other metrics really stand out. JT Realmuto isn’t a great framer either, so I wonder about the sustainability of that.

I agree with the line move here and would side with the Marlins. I also think some runs are very possible in this game, as the numbers suggest regression for Gio Gonzalez and I don’t really think much of Edinson Volquez, despite the good ERA.

Cincinnati at Tampa Bay (-140); Total: 9

Yesterday, I felt that the Rays were underpriced. The market agreed, as they ultimately closed a -145 favorite, with some books closer to -160. Today, the Rays open similarly priced for the matchup between Amir Garrett and Alex Cobb. It has been a crazy season for Garrett. The rookie left-hander has a 6.91 ERA with a 6.97 FIP and a 5.08 xFIP, but seven of his 11 starts have been pretty good. Garrett has allowed nine, seven, six, and 10 runs in four of those starts, accounting for 32 of his 44 runs allowed and 31 of his 42 earned runs. He’s given up two runs or less in the other seven starts. He’s allowed 17 HR in 54.2 innings of work and has some shaky K/BB rates, so he hasn’t been very consistent this season.

That makes him really hard to play on or against at this point. He’s shown the ability to come out and give quality innings, but he’s also shown the signs of a rookie by being unable to stop the bleeding and keep his team in the game. The Rays do have a ton of power, but have struggled against lefties, as I expected at the start of the season. Tampa Bay is just 8-16 against left-handed starters, but 29-20 against right-handed starters.

Alex Cobb is still searching for his pre-injury form. Cobb actually accumulated 7.5 fWAR from 2012-14 before injuries arrived. He was hit in the head by a comebacker, needed Tommy John, and then had another setback that limited him to just five starts last season. His strikeout rate has been down since returning and his command has been as well. It’s a sad reminder of what injuries can do to derail a promising career.

I won’t be playing this one, but there’s probably a little bit of value in the Tampa Bay team total if bad Garrett shows up.

San Francisco at Atlanta (-110); Total: 9.5

The market is fading Julio Teheran today as the Braves host Matt Moore and the Giants. I’ve talked a lot about Matt Moore this season as a guy that does not have a good profile via the Statcast data. He’s given up a ton of hard contact this season. The more traditional metrics back it up, as Moore has a 6.00 ERA with a 4.73 FIP and a 5.25 xFIP. He’s got a .336 BABIP against from all the hard contact, even with a 1.38 HR/9. It concerns me that Moore’s K/BB metrics haven’t really improved with the league switch, but, some of the best offenses in baseball reside in the NL, so maybe the pitcher hitting doesn’t have as much of an impact as it used to.

Moore has allowed 95 hits in 78 innings. His home run total of 12 isn’t that bad when you consider all the fly balls he induces. That brings up a pretty interesting question. Moore has largely stayed away from the league’s power surge. Is it sustainable that he keeps giving up home runs by teams sequencing hits together? That’s not really the way that run scoring is done anymore. Sure, Moore has allowed a ton of hard contact, hence the .336 BABIP against, but will we see him carry a 63.9 percent LOB% the rest of the season? Probably not.

Julio Teheran comes to the mound with a 4.86 ERA, a 5.66 FIP, and a 5.43 xFIP. His K% is way down this season and his BB% is up 3.8 percent. It’s a really ugly profile for Teheran, who has experienced a velocity drop this season. As I’ve mentioned, I think there’s an underlying injury that we’re not hearing about. Teheran’s command has also fallen off with 16 HR allowed in 79.2 innings of work. We’re seeing a lot more fastball usage from Teheran, even though his first-pitch strike rate is the highest it has ever been. As a result, his swinging strike rate is below 10 percent for the first time since 2012. It seems odd that a pitcher would be getting ahead in the count more and use his secondaries less. That’s why I think we’re looking at an injury. There’s more strain on the arm to throw those sliders and curveballs.

I understand the line move. I also may consider buying Matt Moore a bit going forward. Sometimes it makes sense to buy a pitcher at his lowest point. We did that a couple times with James Shields last season. I don’t think today is that day because the Giants are a terrible team right now and they’re a long way from home, so I’m not sure they’re in the right mental frame of mind right now. But, I’ll look to back Moore when he gets back to pitcher-friendly AT&T Park to play against perception.

Pittsburgh at Milwaukee (-115); Total: 9.5

Here comes the market against Milwaukee again. This time, Chad Kuhl is the benefactor as his Pirates look to take Game 2 against the Brewers. Zach Davies will go for Milwaukee. The market came in on Pittsburgh yesterday to fade Matt Garza, but I expected to see a Brewers fade in the coming weeks and it appears that we’re getting it. People also expected the Pirates to be a bit better this season.

Kuhl is an interesting dude to me. He’s got premium velocity and was fast-tracked through the Pirates system, but he’s never been able to use that velo to miss bats. He has a 5.61 ERA with a 4.22 FIP and a 4.99 xFIP. His walk rate is up this season and that velocity has resulted in some hard contact with a .330 BABIP against. One thing I am noticing with regards to today’s line moves is that we’re getting a lot of play on and against LOB%. Kuhl’s is 63.8 percent this season. Clearly the market is expecting some better fortunes there, especially since we’re seeing a higher league average because of the long ball. Kuhl also has an 11.3 percent swinging strike rate, which is noteworthy against Milwaukee.

Zach Davies has a 4.91 ERA with a 5.09 FIP and a 4.72 xFIP. He has not come close to repeating last year’s success, when Baseball Prospectus declared him the best command pitcher in baseball based on some of their new metrics. Last year, Davies had a 3.97 ERA with a 3.89 FIP and a 3.94 xFIP. He had average peripherals across the board. What’s interesting to me is that Davies hasn’t experienced any gains, while guys like Jimmy Nelson and Chase Anderson have taken a huge leap forward. Davies isn’t a stuff guy, which could be part of the equation. His margins for error are thin because there’s nothing special about the stuff. It’s all about the command and the command hasn’t been there. Unfortunately, neither has the control.

All four of Davies’s classified pitches rate below average. Last season, he had a decent curve and a plus changeup. This season, both of those pitches have been below average. His fastball command is always a question because there’s no velocity to increase the margin for error.

It looks like I was wrong about Zach Davies. I can appreciate the move on Kuhl and would look to go with that side if pressed into action on this game.

Chicago at Minnesota (-170); Total: 9.5

Games like this are always so interesting to me. We’ve got Derek Holland, whose reputation in the business community isn’t very high. We’ve got Ervin Santana, who has been a regression candidate basically since Opening Day. Holland has a 3.79 ERA with a 5.37 FIP and a 5.13 xFIP. Keep in mind that the components of FIP and xFIP are strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and home runs. Holland rates average in strikeouts, below average in walks, well below average in home runs, and has hit four batters. Holland’s ERA is also lowered by the fact that he has experienced some of the negatives that come with those other metrics, but they have resulted in unearned runs. Holland has allowed 11 unearned runs this year. So, he has had that regression, it just hasn’t shown up on his stat line.

To see the market dislike Derek Holland so much that it is willing to lay north of -160 on Ervin Santana’s 2.56 ERA and 4.91 xFIP is fascinating to me. Well, we’ve also seen the market fade Chicago against every right-handed pitcher known to man over the last couple of weeks. Santana is, in fact, right-handed. He’s carrying around a .171 BABIP against and an 87.1 percent LOB%. Regression is hitting, though. He has a .278/.350/.514 slash against across 18 innings in June with a 6.00 ERA. His BABIP against is still better than average at .273 and his LOB% is still above average at 76.2 percent, but he’s hitting regression. A case can be made that this will get worse before it gets better for Santana.

I’m really curious to see how Minnesota comes out for this series. The red hot Indians blew past the Twins last weekend with a four-game sweep and hung a dozen on Baltimore on Monday night. By no means is Minnesota done in the Central Division with over 90 games to play, but it doesn’t look good right now. Is there a hangover from that beatdown? Did the off day help? Does the pitching matchup help?

This is a complex handicap in my mind. I think the price on Minnesota has gotten a bit high, but I’ve been biased and anti-Twins all year long. If I had to play anything, I’d scoop that price on Chicago, but it’s probably a stay away spot.

Arizona at Colorado (-110); Total: 11

A big series gets underway in the NL West today with Arizona and Colorado dueling at Coors Field. The Rockies couldn’t possibly run any better this season, but you can say the same about Arizona, who has won 22 of its last 30 games. This is a tricky road trip for the Diamondbacks, as they head back west from Philadelphia over the weekend. Zack Greinke is on the mound today, with German Marquez going for the Rockies.

A few things stand out about these two teams. The first is that Arizona’s 44-26 record looks more “legit”, as they have the same record Pythagorean Win-Loss suggests for them. The Rockies are +3 in that department, due in large part to a 10-2 record in one-run games. The Diamondbacks have a solid 15-6 mark themselves. Arizona enters with seven straight wins and Colorado enters with five straight.

Truthfully, I’m not sure how to approach either of these teams at this point. I expected Arizona to be a surprise team, but not to this extent. I expected Colorado to be worse than most people predicted, but here they are, dominating the league with the second-best record in baseball. Only Houston, who seemed to be untouchably good early in the year, has a better record than Colorado and that’s only by 1.5 games. I do think regression will come for Colorado, but it’s more likely to come on the road than at home, given their recent history. This series is at home.

I’m passing here, but I’ll keep a close eye on this series to see if I pick up on anything as we go along.

Houston (-115) at Oakland; Total: 9

I thought we had a great situational spot on Monday night to back the A’s, but Oakland was unable to solve Brad Peacock and the Astros bullpen. That’s the problem with an offense built like Oakland’s. There will probably be more bad days than good ones and yesterday was a bad one. We chalk it up as a loss and move on.

Francis Martes gets the start today for the Astros. He’s worked 8.2 MLB innings with five runs allowed on seven hits. He’s struck out nine, walked four, hit two, and thrown two wild pitches. Martes had 131 strikeouts in 125.1 innings in Double-A last season and then got the promotion to the bigs after 32.1 subpar innings in Triple-A. But, the Astros bought into the stuff with 38 K in those 32.1 innings. He also walked 28. The timing of the call-up seemed a little bit odd, but an injury to Lance McCullers opened the door.

Martes’s profile makes this an extremely difficult handicap. Even though the walk rate is ugly, it’s pretty clear that the stuff is lively and vibrant, given the strikeout rates. Martes is predominantly a fastball/curveball guy, but premium velocity elevates that limited arsenal. He strikes me as a guy that can be “effectively wild” in today’s MLB climate, with hitters simply looking to barrel balls at optimal launch angles. Guys with stuff can stay off the barrel, even if they don’t have good control.

Sonny Gray has taken on money a lot this season and it’s happening again today. The right-hander opened a clear home dog and now this game is virtually a money line pick ‘em. Gray also has that ERA/xFIP discrepancy that the market is looking for. He’s got a 4.44 ERA with a 3.32 FIP and a 3.27 xFIP. He’s struck out over a batter per inning. His velocity is back. We’ve also seen moves today on guys with low LOB%, as I’ve mentioned, and Gray’s is just 60.9 percent.

I’m going to play Oakland today. Yesterday’s situational play didn’t work out, but we’ve talked about how ex-players, and even current players, have mentioned that the second day is often the hardest one. The Astros got into Oakland very early Monday morning, overcame that adversity, and now have all day to sit around in the Bay Area. The pitching matchup should favor Oakland. We’ll take a stab with the A’s tonight.

Nationals, Marlins meet
By: StatFox.com

The Marlins will be going for their second straight home win over the Nationals on Tuesday.

The Nationals have lost two straight games heading into Tuesday, and they’ll need to win this one in order to give themselves a chance to win this series on Wednesday. Washington had a 6-0 lead in Monday’s meeting with Miami, but the Marlins scratched and clawed their way back into it. They ended up winning that one 8-7, and they have now won four of their past six and seven of their past 11. The starters in this big Tuesday matchup are set to be LHP Gio Gonzalez (6-1, 2.89 ERA, 79 K) for the Nationals and RHP Edinson Volquez (3-7, 3.72 ERA, 68 K) for the Marlins. Both guys have the capability of pitching complete gems in this one, so don’t be shocked if this game is a lot lower scoring than Monday’s matchup. One trend that favors the Nats when looking at this game is the fact that Washington is 29-11 against the money line in home games in night games over the past two seasons. The Marlins are, however, 28-18 against lefties over the past two seasons.

The Nationals are coming off of a tough loss on Monday night, but they should be able to regroup here. They’ll have Gio Gonzalez on the mound for this one, and the lefty has been as reliable as they come this season. Gonzalez has allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his past five starts for Washington, and he has also struck out five or more batters in six straight games. He has been doing an unbelievable job of missing bats this season, and he should not have many problems dealing with this Marlins lineup. Offensively, 2B Daniel Murphy (.342 BA, 11 HR, 47 RBI) and 1B Ryan Zimmerman (.346 BA, 19 HR, 54 RBI) are two guys that should be able to step it up in this one. The two of them are a combined 13-for-28 with seven RBI against Volquez in their careers. They both also happen to be having ridiculous seasons, and they are seeing the ball as well as ever.

If the Marlins are going to win a second straight against the Nationals on Thursday then they will need Edinson Volquez to come through for them. Volquez is certainly capable of doing just that, as he pitched a no hitter for Miami just three starts ago. He did, however, allow four earned runs in four innings of work in his most recent outing against the Athletics. The Marlins can’t afford to have that version of Volquez on the mound in this one. Offensively, OF Giancarlo Stanton (.283 BA, 18 HR, 46 RBI) is one guy to keep an eye on in this one. Stanton came up huge for the Marlins last game, hitting a solo shot to tie the game at 7-7. Miami went on to win, and Stanton’s 3-for-5 night was certainly a factor. That game snapped a two-game hitless streak for Stanton, and the Marlins are hoping that he has woken up now.

MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com

Double-Play Picks

Cleveland Indians at Baltimore Orioles (+125, 10.5)

The Orioles and Indians continue their four-game set in Baltimore on Tuesday night, in a matchup of two American League teams which couldn’t be headed in more opposite directions.

The Tribe dealt the first blow in the series, hammering the Orioles 12-0 on Monday night, in a game that is pretty much these two teams in a nutshell right now.

The Indians have won six consecutive ball games, which includes of four-game sweep of the Twins to surpass Minnesota for first place in the American League Central, scoring an average of 8.7 runs per game, while allowing just 2.2 in those contests.

Meanwhile the Orioles have fallen off a cliff and the ground is coming up fast. Baltimore was 22-10 back on May 9th and leading the American League East, but since they have gone 12-25, dropping all the way to last in the division.

Their last 16 games have been particularly bad. The Orioles are 5-11 in those contests, but have allowed five runs or more in each and every one of those games. Ouch. The Over is not surprisingly 13-3 in those contests.

The pitching matchup in the second game of this series also leaves a little to be desired as Cleveland’s Josh Tomlin toes the rubber against Baltimore’s Chris Tillman.

It’s been a tough year for Tomlin, who is 4-8 with a 5.83 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in 13 starts this season and while the O’s have struggled, they are still prone to break out offensively from time to time.

It’s been even worse for Tillman.

The veteran right-hander just has not been able to find his groove since coming off the disabled list. In eight starts he has a putrid 8.07 ERA with a 2.10 WHIP and has struck out just 26 batters, while walking 19. Opponents are also hitting .350 against him this season. And it’s not like he started poorly and is improving. Tillman has allowed 14 combined earned runs in his last two starts.

Pick: Over 10.5

Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners (-135, 9)

We're dipping back into the "fade the Tigers" well once again Tuesday night. Last night we faded our favorite fadable starting pitcher, Anibal Sanchez, to a comeback win (thank you Mike Zunino) and tonight we will be fading a Tigers' starter who has been horrible on the road this season.

Overall, Jordan Zimmermann's numbers don't look horrible - he's 5-5 in 13 starts with an ERA that is a bit inflated at 5.35. However, when you pull out just his road numbers he becomes an automatic fade whenever he's scheduled to start away from Comerica Park in Detroit. In six road starts this season Zimmermann is 0-3 with a team win/loss record of 0-6, a 6.35 ERA, and a road WHIP of 1.588.

Ariel Miranda gets the ball tonight for the Mariners and he's been very good this season at 6-3 (team win/loss: 8-6) with a 4.17 ERA and a WHIP of 1.249 and his home splits have been tremendous at 3-1, 2.14 ERA, and 0.929 WHIP.

The M's have won six of the last seven meetings with the Tigers who are in the midst of a very tough stretch as losers of eight of their last 11 games. As a result of their 6-2 win last night the Mariners are now a very respectable 21-13 at home this season.

Pick: Mariners -135

Yesterday's Picks: 2-0
Season To Date: 68-56-7

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Edinson Volquez, Miami Marlins (3-7, 3.72 ERA)

After getting off to a terrible start to the 2017 season, Edinson Volquez has been dynamite over his last four outings. The Marlins have won all four of his last four starts (including a no-hitter against the Diamondbacks back on June 3) and he owns a very tidy 1.73 ERA. Volquez has also only allowed 10 hits over his last 26 innings of work.

The Marlins are slight underdogs at +105 against Gio Gonzalez and the Washington Nationals tonight.

Slumping: Matt Moore, San Francisco Giants (2-7, 6.00 ERA)

It doesn't get a whole lot worse than Matt Moore has been over his last three starts...and on the road this season.

In his last three outings Moore has a team win/loss of 0-3, an ERA of 11.08, a WHIP of 2.38, and an opponent's on base percentage of .456. On the road this season Moore owns a team win/loss of 1-7, an ERA of 9.24, a WHIP of 2.11, and an opponent's on base percentage of .425.

Just awful stats.

Moore and the Giants are -110 tonight in Atlanta.

Tuesday's Top Trends

* The San Francisco Giants are 1-8 in Matt Moore's last 9 road starts. -110 today @ Braves.
* The Miami Marlins are 10-1 in their last 11 home games. +105 today vs. Nationals.
* The Toronto Blue Jays are 6-0 in Francisco Liriano's last 6 starts. -120 today @ Rangers.
* Over is 9-1 in the Los Angeles Dodgers' last 10 overall. Mets/Dodgers Total: 8.5.

Weather To Keep An Eye On

There is a chance of thunderstorms and a 50-60 percent chance of rain throughout the evening tonight in Atlanta where the Braves are schedule to host the San Francisco Giants. This is a Pick 'Em game and the total is set at 9.5.

There will be a nice hitter's wind at Yankee Stadium where the Los Angeles Angels will be in town. A stiff 10-15 mile per hour breeze will be blowing straight out to center field and the total tonight is currently set at 10.

Our daily Wrigley Field report shows rain prior the game but tapering off before first pitch. A light 5 mile per hour breeze will be blowing in from right field. The total has been set at 9 with the Padres in town.

Ump Of The Day

D.J. Reyburn: Bad news for the Texas Rangers tonight. Not only do they have to face a Blue Jays team who has won starting pitcher Francisco Liriano's last six starts, but D.J. Reyburn will be calling balls and strikes. The road team has won Reyburn's last seven games behind the plate and nine of his last 10.

The Rangers are currently listed as +115 dogs at home tonight.