National League
Giants @ Pirates
Cueto is 6-0, 1.34 in his last eight starts (under 6-2).
Boscan is making first MLB start; he allowed four runs in 12.1 IP in five relief stints, is 5-5, 3.33 in nine AAA starts this season.
Giants are 18-7 in last 25 road games,under is 14-7 in last 21 Giant road games. Pirates lost 10 of last 12 games; over is 10-4 in their last 14 home games.
Braves @ Marlins
Norris is 1-1, 2.65 in his last thee starts; five of his last seven starts went over.
Fernandez is 8-1, 1.86 in his last nine starts (under 6-2 in last eight). .
Braves won their last five games; they're 3-8 in road series openers. Under is 9-2 in last 11 Atlanta road games. Miami won five of last seven games; under is 7-3 in their last ten home games. Marlins are 6-6 in home series openers.
Cardinals @ Cubs
Wainwright is 0-1, 1.80 in his last three starts; five of his last six stayed under.
Hammel is 2-1, 2.17 in his last five starts; three of his last four stayed under.
Cardinals lost five of last six games; over is 8-5 in their last 13 road games. Chicago is 11-3 in its last 14 home games (under 9-2 in last 11).
Nationals @ Dodgers
Roark is 3-0, 4.30 in his last four starts; Washington scored 26 runs in his last three, all of which went over total.
Kazmir is 2-0, 3.46 in his last five starts; seven of his last nine went over. .
Washington lost its last three games; 10 of their last 12 road games went over the total. Dodgers won 12 of last 15 at home; under is 9-3 in their last 12 at home.
American League
Mariners @ Tigers
Paxton is 1-0, 2.19 in his last two starts (over 1-1).
Verlander is 3-0, 3.05 in his last three starts; four of his last five stayed under. .
Mariners lost eight of last ten road games; over is 8-4 in their last 11 road games. Tigers won six of last seven home games; six of last eight Detroit games went over the total.
Rays @ Indians
Snell is 0-1, 6.48 in two starts this year (over 1-1).
Kluber is 2-2, 5.33 in his last four starts, three of which went over.
Rays lost their last five games; over is 17-3-1 in last 21 Tampa road games. Cleveland won its last nine home games; under is 4-2-1 in their last seven home games
White Sox @ Red Sox
Sale is 2-2, 6.07 in his last five starts, four of which went over.
Buchholz is 0-2, 7.94 in his last three starts; three of his last four went over.
Boston is 4-7 in last 11 home games; six of its last eight home games stayed under. Chicago lost 13 of last 17 road games; four of their last five road games stayed under.
Angels @ Astros
Santiago is 1-2, 9.74 in his last five starts; eight of his last nine starts went over.
McHugh is 0-1, 5.28 in his last three starts; four of his last six starts stayed under.
Angels won four of last six games; three of last four Angel games stayed under total. Houston won ten of last 12 home games; under is 10-2 in Astros' last dozen games.
Interleague
Rockies @ Bronx
Bettis is 1-3, 10.08 in his last five starts; over is 5-3 in his last eight.
Nova is 2-3, 6.30 in his last five starts; under is 4-2-1 in his last seven.
Rockies lost their last three games; seven of their last nine road games stayed under the total. New York won three of last four games; under is 5-2-1 in their last seven at home. Bronx is 6-4 in home series openers; Colorado is 7-5 in road series openers.
Padres @ Orioles
Perdomo is 1-1, 8.03 in his three starts, which all went over.
Wilson is 1-4, 5.45 in his last six starts (over 5-3-2).
Padres lost 10 of last 12 road games; they're 6-4 in road series openers. Last five Padre games went over the total. Baltimore won nine of last 11 home games; they're 7-5 in home series openers. Over is 8-5 in their last thirteen home games.
Diamondbacks @ Blue Jays
Corbin is 1-3, 6.59 in his last five starts; four of his last six went over.
Estrada is 4-0, 2.52 in his last five starts; three of his last four starts stayed under.
Arizona won its last five road games; they're 7-4 in road series openers. Under is 7-1 in last eight Arizona road games. Toronto won nine of last 12 home games; they're 3-8 in home series openers. Seven of last nine Blue Jay games went over the total.
Royals @ Metropolitans
Kennedy is 1-2, 7.86 in his last three starts; over is 3-0-2 in his last five.
Syndergaard is 5-0, 1.97 in his last seven starts; his last four starts went over.
Royals won eight of last nine games; they're 3-8 in road series openers. Under is 6-2-1 in last nine KC road games. Mets lost eight of last 11 games; they're 8-3 in home series openers. Five of last seven New York home games stayed under.
Reds @ Rangers
DeSclafani is 0-0, 5.19 in his two starts (over 1-1).
Lewis is 4-0, 2.63 in his last six starts; over is 5-3 in his last eight. .
Rangers are 23-6 in their last 29 games; Texas is 8-4 in home series openers. Four of last five Texas games stayed under. Cincinnati lost four of last five games; they're 3-8 in road series openers, but won last three. Over is 10-4 in their last 14 road games.
Phillies @ Twins
Nola is 1-3, 6.75 in his last four starts; five of his last six starts went over.
Duffey is 0-3, 9.45 in his last four starts; five of his last six went over.
Phillies lost their last seven games; they're 4-7 in road series openers. Over is 9-3 in last twelve Philly road games. Minnesota lost five of last six games; they're 5-7 in home series openers. Over is 14-3 in Twins' last 17 home games.
Brewers @ A's
Nelson is 0-3, 11.08 in his last three starts; under is 4-2-1 in his last seven.
Gray is 0-1, 3.86 in three starts since coming off DL; over is 8-2 in his last ten.
Milwaukee lost seven of last eight road games; they're 4-7 in road series openers. Over is 7-3 in their last ten road games. Oakland lost 12 of last 15 games; they're 5-6 in home series openers. Last four Oakland games stayed under the total.
Teams won-lost records when this pitcher starts:
SF-Pitt-- Cueto 12-2; Boscan 0-0
Atl-Mia-- Norris 3-5; Fernandez 10-3
StL-Chi-- Wainwright 9-5; Hammel 9-4
Wsh-LA-- Roark 7-7; Kazmir 6-8
Sea-Det-- Paxton 1-3; Verlander 8-6
Chi-Bos-- Sale 11-3; Buchholz 3-7
TB-Clev-- Snell 0-2; Kluber 6-8
LA-Hst-- Santiago 9-5; McHugh 8-6
Col-NYY-- Bettis 7-7; Nova 5-3
SD-Balt-- Perdomo 2-1; Wilson 5-5
Az-Tor-- Corbin 5-9; Estrada 8-5
KC-NYM-- Kennedy 8-5; Syndergaard 9-4
Cin-Tex-- DeSclafani 1-1; Lewis 10-4
Phil-Minn-- Nola 7-7; Duffey 2-8
Mil-A's-- Nelson 7-7; Gray 4-8
Starting pitchers allowing 1+ runs in first inning:
SF-Pitt-- Cueto 4-14; Boscan 0-0
Atl-Mia-- Norris 2-8; Fernandez 3-13
StL-Chi-- Wainwright 4-14; Hammel 3-13
Wsh-LA-- Roark 3-14; Kazmir 7-14
Sea-Det-- Paxton 1-4; Verlander 6-14
Chi-Bos-- Sale 4-14; Buchholz 4-10
TB-Clev-- Snell 2-2; Kluber 4-14
LA-Hst-- Santiago 8-14; McHugh 7-14
Col-NYY-- Bettis 5-14; Nova 1-8
SD-Balt-- Perdomo 3-3; Wilson 4-10
Az-Tor-- Corbin 7-14; Estrada 3-13
KC-NYM-- Kennedy 3-13; Syndergaard 3-13
Cin-Tex-- DeSclafani 1-2; Lewis 6-14
Phil-Minn-- Nola 6-14; Duffey 2-10
Mil-A's-- Nelson 5-14; Gray 2-12
Umpires
SF-Pitt-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Culbreth games.
StL-Chi-- Four of last five Carlson games went over.
Wsh-LA-- Over is 4-2-1 in last seven Eddings games
Chi-Bos-- Underdogs won three of last five Gibson games.
Sea-Det-- Six of last eight Ripperger games stayed under.
TB-Clev-- Three of last four Barksdale games stayed under.
LA-Hst-- Four of last five Cederstrom games went over.
Armadillosports.com
MLB: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
San Francisco at Pittsburgh Pirates
Sometimes a pitcher just has another team's number and that's the case for Johnny Cueto when it comes to the Pirates. He's 18-4 with a 2.13 ERA in 28 career starts vs Bucs. Cueto in great form allowing two or fewer runs in eight consecutive starts with a 49-13 strike-to-walk-ratio expect Giants to do what they typically do with Cueto on the mound in road games, and that's win! (9-0).
Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins
Atlanta on a roll have won a season high five straight games stuffing a whopping +$776 into betting accounts. The Braves look to Bud Norris (2-7, 4.81 ERA) to keep the string alive. Since returning to the rotation, Norris is 1-1 with a 2.65 ERA over three starts with Braves 1-2 in those games. Norris has faced Marlins twice in relief and once as a starter back in April picking up a win tossing 5 1/3 innings of 4 run ball. He'll trade pitches with Miami's Jose Fernandez (9-3, 2.57 ERA) suffering a loss at Arizona last outing giving up 4 runs in 6.0 innings of work.
According to the current betting odds, the Marlins enter this contest as -$2.60 and as high as -$2.80 home favorites depending on locale.
Those inclined towards laying that much juice, Fernandez doing Miami's bidding bodes well for Marlins' chances. History shows Jose Fernandez loves pitching in front of the friendly crowd at Marlins Park. In the righthanders 33 starts at the venue he is 23-1 with Miami 29-4 in those games. Additionally, as a team, the Marlins have thrived against Atlanta with Fernandez posting a 4-2 record in his six career starts which includes 3-0 in Marlins Park. Additionally, the Marlins are 13-2 at home with Fernandez hosting a division opponent.
Tuesday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Royals (8-2 last 10)
Kansas City heads back to Citi Field for the first time since wrapping up the franchise’s second World Series title last October. The Royals have caught fire at the right time to pull within one game of the Indians for first place in the AL Central following a 6-1 homestand. The defending champions split the first two meetings with the Mets to begin the season, but the two teams combined for nine runs in those contests. For as great as the Royals have been of late, they have dropped nine of the last 11 on the highway, while facing Mets’ right-hander Noah Syndergaard in the series opener tonight.
Coldest team: Mariners (3-7 last 10)
Seattle hasn’t had much fun going east on its current trip by dropping five of the first seven games, including Monday’s extra-innings defeat at Detroit. Granted, four of the five defeats have come by a run, so the M’s have been right there in these losses, but have dropped seven of the last nine overall. Southpaw James Paxton looks to stop the bleeding tonight for Seattle, picking up his first victory in four starts in a 6-4 triumph at Tampa Bay to avoid a sweep last week. The Mariners face former Cy Young winner and MVP Justin Verlander, who has won five of his previous six starts.
Hottest pitcher: Colby Lewis, Rangers (6-0, 2.81 ERA)
Texas definitely qualifies as the hottest team in the league by winning seven consecutive games, but the spotlight will be placed on Lewis. The 36-year old right-hander came within three outs of his first career no-hitter in his past outing at Oakland, but still managed to toss a complete-game two-hitter in a 5-1 victory. The Rangers are 5-2 in Lewis’ seven home starts this season, as he squares off against a Reds’ squad that has lost four of their last five games and is 3-10 in interleague play.
Coldest pitcher: Aaron Nola, Phillies (5-6, 3.51 ERA)
Philadelphia hits the road following a disastrous 0-6 homestand that saw the Phillies plate only nine runs. The Phillies send out their prized pitcher in Nola, who has gone backwards of late by allowing 15 hits and 12 earned runs in his past two starts, losses to the Blue Jays and Nationals. The good news for the former LSU standout is the Phillies have won five of his seven road starts, including a victory at Detroit in interleague play last month. Philadelphia heads to Minnesota trying to take down a Twins’ squad that has dropped five of its past six games.
Biggest UNDER run: Athletics (4-0 last four)
Oakland’s offense has dried up of late by scoring five runs in the past four games, while winning just once in this stretch. In two of those losses, the A’s faced pitchers who tossed complete games, including getting shut out by Angels’ right-hander Jered Weaver in Sunday’s 2-0 defeat. Sonny Gray takes the mound for Oakland as the A’s start a two-game home set with the Brewers, as the right-hander has cashed the ‘over’ in four straight games at the Coliseum.
Biggest OVER run: Padres (5-0 last five)
San Diego finished off its homestand with a pair of high-scoring victories over Washington, as the Padres head cross-country to face Baltimore in an interleague series. The Padres’ offense has picked up of late by plating at least five runs in each of the past five games, while six of the seven games of their homestand eclipsed the ‘over.’ Five of the last eight contests played away from Petco Park have finished ‘over’ the total for the Padres, as two of the ‘unders’ came on 12 ½ totals at Colorado. Luis Perdomo makes his fourth start for San Diego this season, as the first three starts for the right-hander sailed ‘over’ the total, which is 10 at Baltimore.
Matchup to watch: Cardinals vs. Cubs
These two bitter rivals played an entertaining game to kick off their series at Wrigley Field on Monday as the Cardinals held off the Cubs, 3-2. St. Louis not only snapped a five-game losing streak, but also ended Chicago’s three-game winning streak. Chicago owns a 4-3 record against St. Louis this season, as the Cubs send out right-hander Jason Hammel to the mound. The Cubs have won all five of Hammel’s home starts this season, while the veteran beat the Cardinals as a road favorite last month, 12-3. Adam Wainwright counters for St. Louis, as the Cardinals own a 4-1 record in his past five starts away from Busch Stadium.
Betcha didn’t know: The Diamondbacks have caught fire of late by winning four straight and six of their last eight games away from Chase Field. Arizona heads north of the border to face Toronto as Patrick Corbin heads to the mound for the D-backs. The home/road splits on Corbin are remarkable as Arizona owns an 0-7 record in his seven home starts, but a solid 5-2 mark on the highway as the D-backs are a +165 away underdog against the Blue Jays tonight.
Biggest public favorite: Marlins (-280) vs. Braves
Biggest public underdog: Nationals (+110) at Dodgers
Biggest line move: Athletics (-135 to -150) vs. Brewers
Nats, Dodgers meet again
By Sportsbook.ag
WASHINGTON NATIONALS (43-28.) at LOS ANGELES DODGERS (39-33)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Washington +115, Los Angeles -125, Total: 7.5
The Nationals come to Los Angeles to try and even the series against the Dodgers on Tuesday.
Washington has been one of the better teams in baseball this season (43-28), but is coming into tonight’s game on a three-game losing streak.
The Nationals caught a bad break last night when they were supposed to have their ace, RHP Stephen Strasburg (10-0, 2.90 ERA, 118 K) on the mound, but he was scratched before the game with a back injury. The game resulted in a 4-1 victory for the Dodgers where LHP Clayton Kershaw (11-1, 1.57 ERA, 141 K) threw seven innings and only gave up one run.
Washington, though, has been the best road team in the MLB, going 23-16, which has allowed the team to own a 5.5-game lead in the NL East. The Dodgers, on the other hand, have been a hot team as of late, winning their last four games and going 6-1 over their last seven.
Los Angeles has a home record of 21-15 and hopes it can continue its home dominance to clinch the series tonight. The Dodgers may be getting some additional help because OF Yasiel Puig (.237, 5 HR, 20 RBI) is supposed to be activated in time for the game.
Tonight Washington will have RHP Tanner Roark (6-4, 3.14 ERA, 77 K) on the mound opposite Los Angeles’ LHP Scott Kazmir (5-3, 4.64 ERA, 83 K).
The Nationals have reached the top of the division by pitching their way there. The pitching staff has a combined 3.34 ERA, fourth best in the majors, and has held batters to a .218 BA. Tonight Washington will be throwing Tanner Roark on the mound, who hasn’t pitched well all season, but is starting to find his way lately.
Over his last three starts, he is 2-0 with a 5.06 ERA and the team was able to win all three games. Roark has struggled on the road this season, owning a 4.07 ERA. Washington will need to provide enough run support to get the win tonight.
The Nationals will be looking to 2B Daniel Murphy (.356, 12 HR, 46 RBI) and OF Bryce Harper (.255, 14 HR, 42 RBI) to produce tonight as they have all season.
OF Michael Taylor (.243, 6 HR, 12 RBI) has been hot as of late, hitting .444 with two homers and three RBI over the last seven days.
C Wilson Ramos (.333, 11 HR, 38 RBI) has also been on a hot streak this month, hitting .351 with five homers and 13 RBI over the stretch. Look for OF Jayson Werth (.250, 10 HR, 37 RBI) to have a great game tonight because he has hit lefties well this year (.365, 5 HR, 13 RBI) and has gone 3-for-4 in career at-bats against Kazmir.
Los Angeles has been able to go on this win streak because of hot hitting. 3B Justin Turner (.252, 10 HR, 32 RBI) has been killing it at the plate over the last seven days, hitting .480 with five homers and 10 RBI.
In addition, OF Joc Peterson (.235, 13 HR, 32 RBI) has found his HR stroke, hitting four in the last seven days. This hot hitting is uncharacteristic of the Dodgers because they don’t have one hitter hitting .300 or better this season.
SS Corey Seager (.283, 15 HR, 36 RBI) is the one Dodger who has consistently produced for the team. Los Angeles’ pitcher tonight, Scott Kazmir, has had a few rough outings lately. He is 1-0 with a 5.79 ERA in his last three starts and none of the starts have lasted more than five innings.
The team has lost two of the three games that he last made a start. Kazmir has not made a start against Washington as a Dodger, but he is 1-0 with a 4.65 ERA against the Nationals in his career. His last start against Washington was in 2014 where he won the game, not giving up a run.
Goodfella
Nationals TT Over 3.5
The Dodgers send out Scott Kazmir this evening. He's really struggled with his command and getting deep into games. These Nats have had good success vs him in their fairly limited at-bats. I also really like the fact that these Nats rake LH pitching. They are 2nd in the N.L. in .OPS vs south paws & they face a struggling one this evening in Kazmir. I fully expect these Nationals to get to him eventually and also work the pitch count on Kazmir. The Dodgers do have a dominant closer, but there middle relief can be exploited. I really like these Nats to plate at least 4 runs before this game goes final. We also have the visiting club here, so we're assured of getting 9 innings of at-bats. I'm on the NATS Team Total going OVER 3.5 runs in this spot on Tuesday Night
SPORTS WAGERS
Arizona +174 over TORONTO
Patrick Corbin returned from Tommy John surgery last season and threw just 85 innings. He far exceeded the just-happy-to-be-back-from-TJS story. After a 21-month layoff, Corbin's broad skill base remained intact while he threw a bit harder and dialed up his command. Corbin got off to a pretty good start this year before running into some trouble but we are seeing some pretty good signs recently that suggest he’s ready to step it up again. Corbin comes in with a 53% groundball rate. His 6.28 ERA over his last five starts is a direct result of a very unfortunate 57% strand rate. Corbin has 26 K’s over his last 29 innings but this wager is more about taking back a great price against the great Marco Estrada.
Despite what you see and the results that have followed, Marco Estrada is an average at best MLB pitcher that continues to ride an incredible run of good fortune. Estrada’s results are elite but his skills do not support any of it. Elite pitchers from the beginning of time to the present all have things in common. They all throw strikes at a high rate and strike out plenty of batters. Estrada doesn’t do any of that, as he is constantly fighting the count and has walked 34 batters in 87 innings. That puts him on the same level as Nathan Karns (4.38 ERA), Jimmy Nelson (4.54 ERA) and James Shields (6.28 ERA).
Elite pitchers keep the ball on the ground and induce weak contact. Marco Estrada is an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a 48% fly-ball rate. That puts him on level with Hector Santiago and his 5.37 ERA. No pitcher in MLB has a higher fly-ball rate than Estrada. No pitcher has had as many warning track shots as he has either. Where Estrada is elite is in the luck department, where his BABIP is .188. No pitcher in the history of this game has been able to maintain that low a mark over the course of a full season. To give you an idea of how lucky that is, Noah Syndergaard’s BABIP is .304. Marco Estrada has the highest fly-ball rate in the game and the lowest BABIP in the game. That does not compute one bit. If you think that a ball hit to the warning track is a skill, bet on Estrada here. If you think that all those hard hit balls being hit right at people is a skill, bet on Estrada. If you think that falling behind hitters and wiggling out of jams is a skill, bet on Estrada. However, the reasonable and only conclusion is that Marco Estrada has been very lucky and it cannot last forever. Can it last for one more game? Of course it can and you can spot the -185 or so price tag to find out. We are not about to roll the dice on bad propositions and Marco Estrada is one of them. Dude is out of five-hitters.
Philadelphia +124 over MINNESOTA
Tyler Duffey has three quality starts in 10 tries. Two of those came in his first two starts of the year when their wasn’t much known about him. He did throw 58 innings last year for the Twins but he was and still is an unheralded rookie who exceeded expectations at first. The league has caught up to him quickly. Duffey’s strong first-pitch strike rate and control history bode well but his 1.54 WHIP after 57 innings this year does not. That WHIP is even more disturbing when you consider that Duffey throws strikes. The problem is that they are hittable strikes. Duffey has an 8.35 ERA and 1.86 WHIP over his last five starts and he’s pitching for a team that is on pace to lose over 100 games.
The Phillies are reeling after getting swept by the Diamondbacks. Philly is actually winless in their last six games and were outscored 42-9 during that stretch, which was their worst home stand in over 50 years. Combine Philly’s recent struggles with Aaron Nola’s recent two outings in which he gave up 10 earned runs on 15 hits in just 6.2 innings against the Blue Jays and Nationals and it creates this bargain price on Nola and the Phillies.
Truth is, Nola has been outstanding all year aside from those two starts. He has 93 K’s in 85 innings while issuing just 19 walks. He has a 55% groundball rate. His xERA of 2.91 is better than his surface ERA of 3.51. Nola is 3-1 with a 2.27 ERA and 0.87 WHIP away from Citizens Bank Park this season too. Among starters with 25+ IP in both their home and road starts, just two have posted elite skills in every category including an 85% dominant start percentage: Clayton Kershaw and Nola. The scouting report that said Aaron Nola would arrive quickly with polish nailed it. That he’s a dog against the Twinkies and Tyler Duffey is preposterous.
Kansas City +180 over N.Y. METS
Noah Syndergaard is a legit stud on the mound. It's hard to make an argument against him but he's only one man. This play now becomes a fade against the ice cold New York Mets. The 2015 National League Champions come into this game in poor form. They were just swept at home by the bottom feeding Braves. Atlanta pitchers had the New York batters in fits, as they struck out 21 times in three games. The Mets hit just .156 and crossed the plate a measly four times in that series. The Mets have now lost six of their last eight games while batting a horrible .199 over that stretch. As the harsh New York media rips this Mets’ squad apart daily, they would be better served on a road trip right now but that’s not the case.
Kansas City returns to the site of their World Series victory last November and they come in on a tear, winning eight of their last 10 games. The Royals' bats are smokin' hot, as the defending champs have put up 28 runs in their last three games. Ian Kennedy gets the call today and although he's had some problems giving up the long ball lately, the lineup he faces today is not to be feared. Kennedy is a fly-ball pitcher but he has one of the league's best defensive outfields to help bail him out. It would be easy to view Kennedy’s strong '14 as an aberration, since a return of 4+ ERA gives him three in four years. He comes into this start with a 4.17 ERA but the only reason it has reached that is because of fluky hr/f. Kennedy has nice strikeout numbers and nice sub-indicators too. Among established starters, this one has sneaky profit potential.
Revenge is a great angle for sports talk radio but it's not one that interests us from a wagering perspective. The Mets have plenty to worry about and plenty to deal with these days and a team like the Royals can sense trouble quickly. Yeah, Syndergaard is the better pitcher but if the better pitcher won every day, we would all be rich. Sweet price on the Royals here.
Cincinnati +165 over TEXAS
Bizarre is about the only way to describe the Rangers’ extreme luck this year. Here’s a very average team that is playing .648 ball and they’re doing so with a starting rotation that is made up of about four #4 or #5 starters. With Yu Darvish on the DL (again), Cole Hamels is their only legit starter.
We’re not the only one’s that understand how lucky the Rangers are either. The oddsmakers made this 46-25 team a dog in all four games in Oakland last week, in all three games in St. Louis this past weekend and in all three games in Seattle last weekend. In a recent four-game home series against the Astros, Texas was a dog in three of those games. In fact, the last time the Rangers opened as the chalk was 13 games ago when Yu Darvish started against Doug Fister. The last time before that was when Cole Hamels was a -112 favourite over Trevor Bauer. The Texas Rangers have the second best record in baseball behind the Cubbies and they are not far behind Chicago at all. The Texas Rangers have been favoured TWICE (!) over their past 25 games, so either the oddsmakers are crazy or the Rangers are very lucky. Pick one.
To give you an idea of the Rangers extreme luck, consider last night’s 4-3 victory over the Orioles. Derek Holland surrendered nine hits and walked two batters in 4.1 innings of work. The Orioles scored just three runs. Overall, Baltimore had 15 hits and 19 baserunners. Their invidual team LOB's was 25. Texas won by a single run.
Colby Lewis fits right in there too. Guys like Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Chris Sale and Noah Synndergaard lose games from time to time but Colby Lewis has not lost a game this year. How can that be? Lewis has 58 K’s in 93 innings, a 37%/44% ground-ball/fly-ball split, a 7% swing and miss rate and a fastball that averages 87 MPH. You remember two or three years ago when Mark Buehrle went 11-1 for the Blue Jays in the first half of the season? In the second half he blew up and couldn’t win a game. That’s Colby Lewis, as he’s the mirror image of Mark Buehrle that is pitching in an extreme hitter’s park. It’ll be a cold day in hell when we refuse a price like this against a pitcher like Lewis, especially with a team that can score in bunches like the Cincinnati Reds can. Colby Lewis is 36-years-old and there is a major correction coming to his 2.81 ERA because he's the exact same weak pitcher that he has been the last four years prior to this one that had trouble keeping his ERA under 4.50. SELL!!
San Diego +`166 over BALTIMORE
In the 35 plus years that I have personally been betting on baseball, I have never gone through a bad stretch like the one I’m enduring now. A reader wrote in this morning and suggested “going back to the basics”. He also suggested that I may be focusing too much much on metrics.
Well, the basics are the same, that being value holds up in the long run and in that regard, a pitcher like Tyler Wilson cannot be favoured in this range. The Orioles overachieve somehow and they’re also overpriced because of it while Tyler Wilson brings a 4.57 xERA into this start. Wilson has struck out 36 batters in 67 innings. He has a far below average 7% swing and miss rate and none of his other skills stick out. Tyler Wilson is a below average starter that is priced like David Price here. Furthermore, the Padres have the 4th best team BA (.280) in the majors over the past 20 games and that’s after playing the majority of those games at extreme pitchers parks. The market perception of the Padres is that they’re weak and beatable and the market knows very little about Luis Perdomo.
Perdomo is a very interesting case. He’s a kid that is raw and that has never pitched above Hi-A ball prior to this season. Early last year, Perdomo was pitching at Low-A ball for Peoria of the Midwest League where he posted a 3.68 ERA over 101 innings. At Hi-A Palm Beach, Perdomo posted a 5.13 ERA over 26 frames. He’s a Rule 5 selection, meaning the Padres are forced to keep him on the active roster otherwise they risk losing him. So raw yes, but also so talented. Perdomo has pitched 42 innings this year covering 18 appearances. 15 of those appearances came in relief. In his last start, however, Perdomo held the Marlins to six hits and three runs in six innings. He has a 13% swing and miss rate and an elite 56% groundball rate. In his last start, Perdomo’s groundball rate was 78%. Perdomo is effectively wild. He’s reckless, intense and wickedly talented and while their is a strong possibility that he’s gets whacked here, there’s also a strong possibility that he’ll have the free-swinging Orioles talking to themselves all game. Baseball is unpredictable but finding value is not. Let the chips fall where they may.
Steve Janus
White Sox vs. Red Sox
Play: Under 9
Play Under - Home teams (BOSTON) - good AL hitting team (AVG .285 or less) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA 3.75 or less), starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing. This system is 55-19 (74%) against the total since 1997.
Jeff Alexander
Red Sox -111
Your first instinct will likely be to back the White Sox in this one, as rarely do you get the opportunity to back Chris Sale at this low of a price. However, I think the smart play here is on Boston, as Sale has not been the same elite pitcher as he was to start to the season of late. He's got a 5.59 ERA and 1.552 WHIP in his last 3 starts and will be facing a Red Sox offense that is scoring 5.9 runs/game against left-handed starters this season. Boston will counter with Clay Buchholz, who will make his first start since 5/29, as he was demoted to the bullpen. He appeared to get things figured out as a reliever and will be facing a White Sox offense that has scored just 9 runs in their last 4 games combined. The month of June has been good to Buchholz, as he's 19-2 against the money line in his career in June.
Jack Jones
Detroit Tigers -125
The Detroit Tigers are showing great value Tuesday as small home favorites over the Seattle Mariners tonight. Rarely will you get the opportunity to back Justin Verlander at home as this small of a home favorite, so we'll take advantage.
Verlander has been solid all season, going 7-5 with a 3.87 ERA and 1.075 WHIP in 14 starts. The right-hander is 4-2 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.064 WHIP in seven home starts, and 3-0 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.016 WHIP in his last three starts overall. Verlander is also 10-8 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.163 WHIP in 18 career starts against Seattle.
James Paxton has just a 2.86 ERA in four starts this season, but he's overvalued as a result. He has posted a 1.545 WHIP in those four starts, so he's been very fortunate to limit the earned runs. Paxton is 1-1 with a 5.58 ERA and 2.068 WHIP in his two road starts this year.
Paxton is 2-10 (-10.1 Units) against the money line in night games over the last two seasons. The Mariners are 2-8 in their last 10 road games. Seattle is 0-7 in Paxton's last seven starts after scoring 5 runs or more in its previous game. Detroit is 5-1 in Verlander's last six starts.
Brandon Lee
Rays vs. Indians
Play: Under 8
I really like the value here on the UNDER at 8 runs in today's matchup between the Indians and Rays. Cleveland will send out Corey Kluber, who comes in off a awful start at Kansas City, where he allowed 8 runs in 5 innings. The previous 4 times that Kluber has allowed 6 or more runs, he's come back with a dominant outing in his next start. In the four starts following, he's allowed a total of 3 runs on 13 hits in 30 2/3 innings. It will help facing a Rays team that is hitting just .217 over their last 7 games. I also look for the Indians to struggle to score here against talented youngster Blake Snell, who has a 2.16 ERA in his first two big league starts. UNDER is 6-1 in Indians last 7 after scoring 5+ runs and 6-1 in Kluber's last 7 home starts against a team with a losing record.
Bryan Power
Royals vs. Mets
Play: Mets -195
The Mets are off a very embarrassing result this past weekend (swept by Atlanta!) and desperate to turn things around here against a Kansas City team that has all of a sudden strung together eight wins in its last nine games. Fortunately for NY, they are at home and have the right guy (Syndergaard) on the mound.
Noah Syndergaard has been the Mets' best pitcher this year, whether you're talking wins & losses (9-4 TSR), ERA (1.93), WHIP (0.98) or K's per nine innings (11.14). The team has won six of his last seven starts, including the last three. The performance he delivered his last time out was nothing short of masterful as he struck out 11 Pirates en route to a 11-2 victory. He lasted 8 1/3 innings and gave up only one earned run and five hits. He also didn't walk anybody. I given a big starting pitching edge to the Mets tonight as KC is forced to rely on Ian Kennedy, who over his L3 starts has a 7.85 ERA and 1.418 WHIP.
I'm not ready to buy into any kind of Royals' resurgence. Yes, they've been beating up on some division rivals of late, but this is a National League park they'll be playing in and that should limit the offense (pitcher must come up to bat). Keep in mind that in five of their last eight victories, the Royals have gotten away w/ scoring four runs or less. Despite being seven games above .500, they have a -1 run differential, so they're an overachiever. Also, they have been dreadful on the road w/ a 13-23 record (-1.2 rpg). This one goes to the Mets.
Jimmy Boyd
Chicago Cubs -130
Chicago is showing great value here as a relatively small home favorite against rival St Louis on Tuesday. The Cubs lost the series opener 2-3 and are going to come out looking to even up the series. Chicago has lost back-to-back games at home only once all season and that came in a double-header against the Padres back in early May.
While the Cardinals managed to pull out the win yesterday, their offensive struggles continued. St Louis has scored just 13 total runs in their last 6 games and will going up against a starter they have really struggled against this season. Jason Hammel is 7-2 with a 2.26 ERA and 1.070 WHIP in 13 starts, including two dominant outings at St Louis, where he allowed just 2 runs on 9 hits in 13 1/3 innings of work.
The Cardinals will send out Adam Wainwright, who has been much better of late, but he still owns an ugly 4.78 ERA and 1.311 WHIP overall in 14 starts. He's also got a 6.03 ERA and 1.413 WHIP in 7 road starts. I look for him to struggle here against a potent Cubs offense that will make him work.
Chicago is a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less, 8-1 in Hammel's last 9 starts against a division opponent and 4-0 in his last 4 at home against a team with a winning record.
Alex Smart
Brewers vs. A's
Play: Over 8
Brewers starter Nelson is 0-3 with a 9.69 ERA and a 1.105 opponents' OPS in June. Nelson is 1-3 with a 6.30 ERA in six road starts this season.Meanwhile, As starteting hurler Gray has been an inconsistent commodiity as was evident when he took a shutout into the sixth inning against the Rangers on Wednesday before falling apart and allowing five runs in the frame. He owns a 5.54 ERA on the season. Gray also wons a 5.30 ERA in six home starts this season.
Over is 8-2 in Nelsons last 10 road starts. Over is 8-2 in Grays last 10 starts overall.
Dave Price
Miami Marlins -1.5 -115
I expect the Miami Marlins to win by 2 runs or more tonight due to the big edge they have on the mound over the lowly Atlanta Braves in this one. Jose Fernandez is 9-3 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.041 WHIP with 118 strikeouts in 80 2/3 innings this season. He doesn't lose at home, going 6-1 with a 2.06 ERA and 0.939 WHIP in 7 home starts. Bud Norris is 2-5 with a 6.13 ERA and 1.538 WHIP in 8 starts this year, including 1-3 with an 8.64 ERA and 2.221 WHIP in 4 road starts. Norris sports a 6.27 ERA and 1.515 WHIP in 6 lifetime starts vs. Miami. Fernandez is 4-1 with a 2.54 ERA and 0.897 WHIP in 6 lifetime starts vs. Atlanta. Fernandez is 12-1 (+10.4 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. The Marlins are a sensational 27-2 in Fernandez's last 29 home starts.
Michael Alexander
White Sox vs. Red Sox
Play: White Sox +105
The Chicago White Sox managed to make the highest scoring offense in baseball look incredibly ordinary on Monday while snapping a three-game slide. The visiting White Sox have a strong chance to keep the Boston Red Sox’s offense down again when they send ace Chris Sale to the mound in the second of a four-game series at Fenway Park. Sale leads the AL in wins and is allowing opponents a stingy .218 batting average. While Red Sox starter, Buchholz is getting another chance to earn a spot in the rotation after being banished to long relief duty at the end of May. The struggles of everyone else who has attempted to lock down the spot led the Red Sox back to the veteran Texan