MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Tuesday, May 2nd, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Mets @ Braves
Harvey is 0-1, 5.71 in his last three starts (over 3-1-1).
Dickey is 2-2, 5.32 in four starts this year (over 2-2).
Mets won three of last four games; over is 9-1-1 in their last eleven games. Atlanta won four of its last six games (over 5-1).
Diamondbacks @ Nationals
Walker is 2-0, 3.38 in his last three starts; under is 3-1 in his last four.
Roark is 3-0, 4.25 in five starts this year (over 3-1-1).
Arizona is 6-4 in its last ten games, 4-6 on road, 5-3 in series openers. Under is 4-1 in their last five road games. Washington is 11-3 in its last 14 games; they’re 7-5 at home, 6-2 in series openers. Nationals’ last eight games went over total.
Pirates @ Reds
Glasnow is 0-1, 10.43 in four starts this year (over 3-0-1).
Feldman is 0-1, 4.24 in his last three starts (over 2-2-1).
Pirates lost five of last seven road games; under is 6-2 in their last eight road games. Cincinnati lost eight of its last 11 games- eight of their last nine games went over.
Phillies @ Cubs
Hellickson is 4-0, 1.80 in five starts this year (under 5-0).
Lester is 0-1, 3.68 in five starts this year (over 2-2-1).
Cubs lost four of last five games; over is 11-1 in their last 12 games. Phillies lost thee of last four games; over is 5-0-3 in their last eight road games.
Brewers @ St Louis
Peralta is 4-1, 5.13 in five starts this year (under 3-2).
Martinez is 0-3, 7.06 in his last four starts (over 2-1-2).
Brewers won five of last seven games; they’re 7-3 on road- over is 14-3 in their last 17 games. St Louis is 9-4 in its last 13 games, 6-3 in last nine at home. Over is 9-1 in their last ten games.
Giants @ Dodgers
Moore is 0-2, 6.48 in his last three starts (under 3-1 in last four).
Wood is 0-0, 4.05 in three starts this year (over 1-0-1).
Giants are 4-8 in their last 12 games, 4-9 on road; under is 6-2-1 in their last nine games. Dodgers won four of their last five games; under is 4-2-1 in their last seven home games.
Rockies @ Padres
Chatwood is 2-3, 4.83 in five starts this year (under 3-2).
Cahill is 1-2, 4.88 in four starts this year (over 3-1).
Colorado lost four of last six games; they’re 9-4 on road, 7-1 in series openers, 4-0 on road. San Diego lost six of last nine games but won last two; Padres are 5-4 at home, 3-5 in series openers, 2-1 at home. Over is 7-2 in their last nine games.
American League
Blue Jays @ Bronx
Latos is 0-0, 3.27 in his first two starts (over 2-0).
Tanaka is 3-0, 1.61 in his last three starts (over 3-2).
Toronto won its last three games; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine road tilts. Bronx won 14 of last 19 games, is 10-3 at home, but lost last two- over is 7-1 in their last eight home tilts.
Orioles @ Red Sox
Asher allowed one run in 6.1 IP (93 PT) in his firs ’17 start, a 2-1 loss in Toronto.
Sale is 1-2, 1.43 in five starts this year (under 4-1). Boston scored 10 runs in the five games.
Orioles are 8-5 on road; over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Boston lost six of its last nine games; nine of their last eleven games stayed under.
Indians @ Tigers
Kluber is 3-0, 3.63 in his last three starts (under 3-1 in last four).
Verlander is 0-2, 5.06 in his last three starts (over 3-2).
Cleveland won nine of last 13 games; eight of their last ten games stayed under. Detroit lost four of its last six games; over is 8-2-2 in their last twelve games overall.
A’s @ Twins
Gray has been hurt; this is his first ’17 start- he was also hurt much of LY, was 5-11, 5.69 in 22 starts. For his career, he is 38-31, 3.42 in 96 MLB starts.
Santana is 4-0, 0.77 in five starts this month (under 2-0-3).
Oakland lost six of its last seven games; they’re 4-8 on road, 3-5 in series openers. Under is 7-5 in their road games. Minnesota is off a 4-1 road trip; they’re 1-6 in last seven home games, 5-3 in series openers. Over is 5-1-2 in their last eight games.
Rangers @ Astros
Hamels is 2-0, 2.45 in his last two starts (over 4-1).
Fiers is 0-1, 5.59 in four starts this year (over 2-2).
Texas lost five of last seven games overall, six of last seven on road. Over is 11-5-1 in their last 17 games. Houston won seven of last nine home tilts; under is 11-4 in their home games.
While Sox @ Royals
Quintana is 1-4, 5.52 in five starts this year (under 4-1).
Duffy is 2-1, 2.81 in five starts this year (over 2-2-1).
Chicago won six of its last eight games; over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Kansas City lost nine of its last ten games; they’re 6-5 at home. Over is 4-2 in their last six games overall.
Angels @ Mariners
Shoemaker is 1-1, 5.06 in five starts this year (over 3-2).
Paxton is 3-0, 1.39 in five starts this year (under 3-1-1).
Angels won six of last seven games; they’re 5-9 on road, 4-4 in series openers. Under is 11-1 in their last 12 road games. Seattle won five of its last six home games; three of their last four games overall stayed under total.
Interleague
Rays @ Marlins
Cobb is 0-2, 6.17 in his last four starts (over 4-1).
Volquez is 0-3, 5.18 in five starts this year (under 3-1-1).
Tampa Bay lost five of last eight games; they’re 4-10 on road. Over is 8-4 in their last twelve games. Miami lost five of last six games; over is 7-3 in their last ten games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
NY-Atl: Harvey 2-3; Dickey 2-2
Az-Wsh: Walker 4-1; Roark 4-1
Pitt-Cin: Glasnow 3-1; Feldman 1-4
Phil-Chi: Hellickson 5-0; Lester 2-3
Mil-StL: Peralta 4-1; Martinez 2-3
SF-LA: Moore 1-4; Wood 0-3
Col-SD: Chatwood 2-3; Cahill 2-2
American League
Tor-NY: Latos 0-2; Tanaka 3-2
Balt-Bos: Asher 0-1; Sale 3-2
Clev-Det: Kluber 4-1; Verlander 2-3
A’s-Min: Gray 0-0; Santana 4-1
Tex-Hst: Hamels 2-3; Fiers 2-2
Chi-KC: Quintana 1-4; Duffy 2-3
LA-Sea: Shoemaker 3-2; Paxton 3-2
Interleague
TB-Mia: Cobb 1-4; Volquez 1-4
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
NY-Atl: Harvey 2-5; Dickey 0-4
Az-Wsh: Walker 2-5; Roark 2-5
Pitt-Cin: Glasnow 2-4; Feldman 1-5
Phil-Chi: Hellickson 0-5; Lester 1-5
Mil-StL: Peralta 2-5; Martinez 2-5
SF-LA: Moore 2-5; Wood 1-3
Col-SD: Chatwood 0-5; Cahill 2-4
American League
Tor-NY: Latos 0-2; Tanaka 2-5
Balt-Bos: Asher 0-1; Sale 0-5
Clev-Det: Kluber 0-5; Verlander 2-5
A’s-Min: Gray 0-0; Santana 0-5
Tex-Hst: Hamels 2-5; Fiers 2-4
Chi-KC: Quintana 1-5; Duffy 1-5
LA-Sea: Shoemaker 5-5; Paxton 0-5
Interleague
TB-Mia: Cobb 1-5; Volquez 3-5
Umpires
National League
NY-Atl: Home teams won all four Rackley games.
Pitt-Cin: Favorites won five of last six Carapazza games.
Mil-StL: Over is 7-4 in last eleven Iassogna games.
SF-LA: Underdogs won four of last five West games.
American League
Tor-NY: Under is 17-6 in last 23 Everitt games.
Balt-Bos: Underdogs won three of last four Reyburn games.
Clev-Det: Under is 8-4 in last twelve Guccione games.
Tex-Hst: Over is 8-5 in last thirteen Hoberg games.
Chi-KC: Four of last five Tichenor games stayed under.
Interleague
TB-Mia: Five of last six Knight games went over.
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MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Philadelphia at Chicago Cubs
Depending on locale, Cubs and Jon Lester are currently a whopping -$205 to -$250 money line favorites. In baseball just because a team is heavily favored does not mean the club will win every time. The baseball season is a long, grueling one and there are days when teams don't give their best efforts. Ace pitchers have off days, relievers implode, hitters slump and/or costly errors are made.
Buyer Beware. Lester is winless with Cubbies costing supporters over -$200 at the betting window in his five starts. Additionally, after last night's 10-2 spanking laying -$170 or more at some shops Cubs are now 2-3 at home laying heavy lumber.
MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com
Double-Play Picks
Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins (-125, 7.5)
Florida interleague action continues Tuesday with Game 2 of the four-game series between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Marlins in Miami. The Rays will send struggling Alex Cobb to the hill while the Marlins will counter with Edinson Volquez.
The former ace of the Rays is still fighting to regain his pre-Tommy John form (now two years since surgery). Since his return from the DL, at the end of last season, the Over has cashed in nine of his 10 starts. It appears oddsmakers are still setting totals based on pre-surgery Alex Cobb - the guy who used to trust his changeup to put hitters away.
On the other side, Volquez is supposed to be the ace of a staff that was certainly impacted by the offseason death of Jose Fernandez. He came over from Kansas City and has stunk it up over five starts with a win/loss record of 0-3 and an ERA of 4.44.
Pick: Over 7.5
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners (-140, 7)
The Mariners return home today after a 10-day road trip and welcome the surprisingly hot Angels to Safeco Field.
Often teams returning from big road trips are situational fades, but the M's had the day off Monday and should be all settled in with their ace on the mound for Tuesday's contest. Lefty James Paxton is 3-0 with a 1.39 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP thus far in 2017 and he has yet to allow a run at home over 15 innings at Safeco.
The Angels are playing pretty well and come to town after taking two out of three games in Arlington against the Rangers over the weekend, but even with those two wins they are still only 5-9 away from Angel Stadium. The M's, on the other hand, are 6-3 at home this season, including five wins in their last six in Seattle.
Pick: Mariners -140
Yesterday: 2-0
Season: 19-16-1 (5-1 over last three days)
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Jeremy Hellickson, Philadelphia Phillies (4-0, 1.80 ERA, $601)
At $601, nobody has made more money for bettors through the first month of the MLB season than Jeremy Hellickson. The efficient right-hander has led the Phillies to wins all five of his starts, allowing two runs or fewer in each.
Hellickson has done an excellent job of keeping runners off the base paths, surrendering just three walks in his 30 innings pitched, including none in his last two outings. He is also holding opponents to a .226 on base percentage. Hellickson and the Phillies are in tough today as they visit the Cubs and are currently +185 underdogs.
Slumping: Wily Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers (4-1, 5.19 ERA, $358)
Wily Peralta has also made bettors some cash early in the season, but that doesn't seem as sustainable as the streaking Hellickson.
Despite the 4-1 record, Peralta has a 5.19 ERA and has been really roughed up in his last two outings. The right-hander has allowed 10 earned runs in his last two starts with a WHIP of 2.22, while allowing five home runs. The Brewers at +163 in St. Louis.
Tuesday's Top Trends
* Under is 9-0 in Masahiro Tanaka's last nine starts vs. Blue Jays. O/U: 8.5.
* Indians are 5-0 in Corey Kluber’s last five starts vs. Tigers. Indians -130.
* Over is 9-0 in Alex Cobb's last nine road starts. O/U: 8 @ Marlins.
* Over is 7-0 in Cardinals last seven overall. O/U: 7.5 vs. Brewers.
Weather to Keep an Eye On
There is some strong hitters winds in the forecast at several MLB ball parks for Tuesday.
In Washington there is will be a 15-17 mile per hour gusting out to right field for the Nationals game against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The total is currently 8.5.
In New York, there will be a 14-16 mile per hour wind gusting out to the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium for tonight's Blue Jays-Yankees game. The total is currently 8.5.
In Detroit, the Tigers host the Cleveland Indians at Comerica, where the winds will be gusting at 17-19 miles per hour out to left field. The total is currently 8.
And finally in Boston, winds will be howling at 17-19 miles per hour out to right-center field at Fenway Park when the Red Sox host the Baltimore Orioles. The total is currently 6.5.
Ump of the Day
Joe West: There has been no home town bias when "Country Joe" has been calling balls and strikes this season. The road team is 5-1 when West is behind the plate this season and 6-1 in games dating back to last season. His home team money total is already $-582 and the home team average run margin is -1.67 per game. West will be officiating tonight's Giants-Dodgers game in Los Angeles and the visiting Giants are 8-1 in the last night games with West behind home plate. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are 1-5 in their last six with "Country Joe" back there.
D-backs, Nats kick off series
By: Brad Kallet
StatFox.com
The Diamondback and Nationals, two of the better teams in the NL through the first month of the season, kick off a three-game series in Washington, D.C.
The Diamondback (16-11) have been one of the surprise teams in all of baseball this season. The Nationals (17-8 ), on the other hand, have lived up to sky-high expectations, and perhaps exceeded them. The reigning National League East champions have a comfortable first-place lead in the division, and the D-backs—who won just 69 games in 2016—are neck and neck with the Rockies in the NL West, trailing first-place Colorado by a half-game. Dusty Baker’s squad lost two of three to the Mets this past weekend, but exploded for 23 runs in the season finale on Sunday. Arizona also lost its weekend series, dropping two of three to Colorado. D-backs RHP Taijuan Walker (3-1, 3.94 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) will be opposed by Nationals RHP Tanner Roark (3-0, 3.64 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) in the opener. These two teams have not yet met in 2017. The D-backs are 4-6 on the road this year; the Nats are 7-5 at Nationals Park. The only injured player of note on either side is Nationals CF Adam Eaton, who is on the disabled list with a left knee strain. Since 2014, the Nationals have won nine of 14 against the D-backs. Twelve of those games have gone OVER the total.
When the week began, the D-backs were second only to the Nationals in runs scored in the National League, so you can expect a lot of scoring in this one. Torey Lovullo’s club has scored 141 runs (2nd in NL as of Monday) and had the second-highest average (.269) as of Monday. A ridiculous five regulars in Arizona’s lineup are batting over .300: RF David Peralta (.326, 3 HR, 7 RBI), CF A.J. Pollock (.324, 2 HR, 8 RBI), 2B Brandon Drury (.318, HR, 8 RBI), 1B Paul Goldschmidt (.315, 4 HR, 19 RBI) and SS Chris Owings (.311, 4 HR, 19 RBI). LF Yasmany Tomas (.291, 5 HR, 20 RBI) and 3B Jake Lamb (.284, 5 HR, 21 RBI), meanwhile, lead the club in homers. The D-backs haven’t seen a ton of Roark, but Lamb has homered off him and Tomas has connected off him twice. Walker, who came to Arizona in a trade with Seattle this past offseason, has never faced the Nationals.
Who’s the only team in the National League, statistically, that is more potent than the D-backs? That would be the Nationals, who—coming into Monday—were first in runs (170), second in homers (43), first in average (.295), first in OBP (.369), first in slugging (.510) and first in OPS (.879). It’s pick your poison with Dusty Baker’s lineup. Coming into Monday, 1B Ryan Zimmerman (.420, 11 HR, 29 RBI) and RF Bryce Harper (.391, 9 HR, 26 RBI) were first and third in the league in hitting, respectively; Zimmerman was tied for first in homers and Harper was tied for second; and Zimmerman was first in RBIs. 2B Daniel Murphy (.343, 5 HR, 26 RBI) and Harper were tied for second in that category. SS Trea Turner (.317, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 4 SB) doesn’t have gaudy stats like theirs—partially because he’s already spent time on the DL this season—but he’s one of the better top-of-the-order bats in baseball. The Nats haven’t seen much of Walker, but C Matt Wieters (.301, 4 HR, 12 RBI)—who spent eight years in the American League—is 4-for-6 against him with a homer and a double. In four career starts against the D-backs, Roark is 1-1 with a 2.96 ERA.