MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Tuesday, May 30th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Phillies @ Marlins
Velasquez is 0-2, 6.05 in his last four starts (over 7-2).
Nicolino is 0-1, 5.40 in his last two starts (over 1-1).
Phillies lost eight of last ten games; four of their last five games stayed under. Miami won three of last four games; over is 7-3 in their last ten games.
Dodgers @ Cardinals
Maeda is 3-0, 3.20 in his last four starts; over is 5-1-1 in his last seven.
Wacha is 0-1, 4.50 in his last five starts, all of which went over.
Dodgers won six of last seven games; under is 5-2 in their last seven games. St Louis lost eight of last 11 games; five of their last seven games stayed under.
Nationals @ Giants
Gonzalez is 0-1, 4.40 in his last five starts; over is 3-1 in his road starts,
Samardzija is 1-1, 2.49 in his last three starts (under 8-2).
Nationals won six of last eight games; last six Washington games stayed under. San Francisco won seven of last ten home games; under is 3-1-1 in their last five games.
Diamondbacks @ Pirates
Ray is 2-0, 0.00 (14.2 IP) in his last two starts; three of his last four starts went over.
Nola is 0-2, 4.15 in his last two starts (under 3-2).
Arizona is 7-10 in last 17 road games; under is 7-2 in their last nine games. Pittsburgh lost three of last five games; six of last seven Pirate games went over the total.
Brewers @ Mets
Davies is 4-1, 3.55 in his last six starts; under is 3-1 in his last four.
Pill is making his first MLB start; he faced three batters in relief in his MLB debut Saturday. He is 4-1, 1.60 in nine AAA starts this season.
Brewers lost six of last eight games; under is 6-4 in their last ten road games. Mets are 7-5 in last 12 home games; over is 7-2 in their last nine games.
Cubs @ Padres
Butler is 2-0, 1.93 in three starts this year (under 2-1).
LaMet allowed one run in five IP (91 PT) in his first MLB start, in Queens against the Mets.
Cubs lost their last six road games; under is 7-2 in their last nine road tilts. San Diego lost five of last seven home games; last fiver Padre games stayed under the total.
American League
A’s @ Indians
Gray is 0-0, 3.66 in his last three starts (under 5-3).
Bauer is 2-0, 4.32 in his last three starts; under is 4-1 in his last five.
A’s lost five of last seven games; four of their last five games stayed under. Cleveland lost five of last seven home games; over is 6-3 in their last nine home games.
Red Sox @ White Sox
Ex-White Sox Sale is 4-0, 3.82 in his last five starts; under is 7-2 in his last nine.
Quintana is 0-2, 5.92 in his last four starts; under is 7-2 in his last nine.
Boston won six of last eight games; under is 4-0-1 in last five Red Sox games. Chicago won six of last seven home games; over is 8-3-2 in their last 13 home games.
New York @ Baltimore
Severino is 1-0, 2.01 in his last four starts; over is 4-1 in his last five.
Tillman is 0-1, 5.87 in his last three starts (under 4-0).
New York is 5-3 in its last eight games; under is 7-1 in last eight Bronx games. Baltimore lost seven of its last eight games; five of last six Oriole games stayed under.
Rays @ Rangers
Andriese is 4-0, 2.97 in his last five starts; over is 3-1 in his last four.
Martinez is 1-3, 6.26 in his last five starts (under 5-2).
Tampa Bay won five of last six games; over is 7-2 in their last nine road games. Texas lost six of last seven games; four of Rangers’ last six home games stayed under.
Tigers @ Royals
Verlander is 1-1, 6.27 in his last three starts; over is 5-3 in his last eight starts.
Almonte is making his first MLB start; he is 1-0, 1.86 in six AA starts this season. He allowed three runs in one inning of relief in the majors this year.
Detroit lost seven of last ten games; under is 7-4-1 in their last 12 road games. Kansas City is 5-8 in its last 13 games; under is 10-4 in their last 14 home games.
Astros @ Twins
Fiers is 0-1, 5.51 in his last three starts; over is 5-3 in his last eight.
Berrios is 3-0, 1.71 in three starts this season (under 3-0).
Astros won seven of last eight games; under is 7-4-1 in their last 12 games. Minnesota lost three of last four games; over is 4-2 in their last six home games.
Interleague
Mariners @ Rockies
Miranda is 1-0, 2.12 in his last three starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight.
Anderson is 2-1, 2.55 in his last four starts, three of which stayed under.
Seattle lost seven of last ten games; under is 5-0-1 in last six Mariner games. Colorado won six of last nine games; under is 9-4-1 in last 14 games at Coors Field.
Reds @ Blue Jays
Wojciehowski is making his first ’17 start; he is 1-1, 6.20 in seven career MLB games (3 starts). He is 1-0, 1.40 in five AAA starts this season.
Happ is 0-3, 4.50 in three starts this year, last of which was April 16 (under 2-1).
Reds won three of last five games; three of their last five games stayed under. Toronto won six of last seven games; over is 4-2 in their last six home games.
Braves @ Angels
Colon is 1-2, 9.00 in his last four starts; over is 7-2 in his last nine.
Bridwell is making his first MLB start; he is
Atlanta lost four of last six games; over is 5-1-1 in their last seven games. Angels lost five of last six games; under is 5-3 in their last eight games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Phil-Mia: Velasquez 3-6; Nicolino 1-1
LA-StL: Maeda 6-2; Wacha 3-5
Wsh-SF: Gonzalez 5-5; Samardzija 4-6
Az-Pitt: Ray 6-4; Nova 6-4
Mil-NY: Davies 6-4; Pill 0-0
Chi-SD: Butler 2-1; Lamet 1-0
American League
A’s-Clev: Gray 3-2; Bauer 4-5
Bos-Chi: Sale 7-3; Quintana 4-6
NY-Balt: Severino 5-4; Tillman 2-2
TB-Tex: Andriese 6-4; Martinez 3-4
Det-KC: Verlander 5-5; Almonte 0-0
Hst-Minn: Fiers 5-4; Berrios 3-0
Interleague
Sea-Colo: Miranda 6-4; Anderson 5-5
Cin-Tor: Wojciehowski 0-0; Happ 0-3
Atl-LAA: Colon 5-5; Bridwell 0-0
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
Phil-Mia: Velasquez 3-9; Nicolino 1-2
LA-StL: Maeda 3-8; Wacha 1-8
Wsh-SF: Gonzalez 5-10; Samardzija 4-10
Az-Pitt: Ray 4-10; Nova 2-10
Mil-NY: Davies 2-10; Pill 0-0
Chi-SD: Butler 2-3; Lamet 0-1
American League
A’s-Clev: Gray 1-5; Bauer 2-9
Bos-Chi: Sale 0-10; Quintana 2-10
NY-Balt: Severino 2-9; Tillman 1-4
TB-Tex: Andriese 5-10; Martinez 2-7
Det-KC: Verlander 4-10; Almonte 0-0
Hst-Minn: Fiers 5-9; Berrios 0-3
Interleague
Sea-Colo: Miranda 4-10; Anderson 1-10
Cin-Tor: Wojciehowski 0-0; Happ 1-3
Atl-LAA: Colon 3-10; Bridwell 0-0
Umpires
National League
Phil-Mia: Over is 7-1 in last eight Eddings games.
LA-StL: Favorites are 9-2 in Wegner games this year.
Wsh-SF: Home side won six of last seven Dimuro games.
Az-Pitt: Six of eight Cooper games stayed under total.
Mil-NY: Over is 6-0-1 in last seven Gonzalez games.
Chi-SD: Under is 7-2 in Barksdale games this season.
American League
A’s-Clev: Home side won three of four Lentz games (over 2-2).
Bos-Chi: Under is 7-2 in last nine Reynolds games.
NY-Balt: Over is 6-3-1 in last ten Miller games.
TB-Tex: Three of last four Meals games went over total.
Det-KC: Underdogs won seven of last nine Timmons games.
Hst-Minn: Over is 5-2 in last seven Holbrook games.
Interleague
Sea-Colo: Over is 5-2 in Wolcott games this season.
Cin-Tor: Four of last five Guccione games stayed under.
Atl-LAA: Under is 4-1-1 in last six Tumpane games.
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 25-12 AL, favorites -$92
AL @ NL– 27-25 AL, favorites +$327
Total: 52-37 AL, favorites +$235
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 20-20-1
AL @ NL: Over 30-19-1
Total: Over 50-39-2
Armadillosports.com
Tuesday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Dodgers (5-0 past five games, 10-2 past 12 overall)
The Dodgers posted a 5-1 win on Memorial Day in St. Louis, picking up where they left off at home. They posted a three-game sweep of the defending champion Cubs, including two shutouts. They kicked off the five-game winning streak with a 7-3 win against these same Cardinals on May 25. L.A. took two of three from the Cardinals at Chavez Ravine, including a victory by Kenta Maeda against Michael Wacha. Those two are the probable starters for Tuesday's outing. The Dodgers have won each of Maeda's past four outings, while the Cardinals are 1-5 in their past six home outings and 1-4 in Wacha's past five starts.
Coldest team Cubs (0-4 past four games, 9-13 past 22 overall)
The defending champs have had a difficult time on their West Coast road trip, getting swept in Los Angeles and then dropping the opening game in San Diego on Memorial Day by a 5-2 count. Chalk eaters were muttering bad words about the Cubs after laying -215. Chicago has dropped each of their past four road games against a right-handed starter while going 1-6 in their past seven outings against teams with a win percentage under .400. Monday's loss was Chicago's first loss in San Diego in the past six trips to Petco Park. Despite the win by San Diego, the Padres are still just 8-17 in their past 25 overall and 4-10 over their past 14 home games.
Hottest pitcher: Chris Sale, Red Sox (5-2, 2.34 ERA)
Sale will work against his former team, the Chicago White Sox, in Tuesday's game at U.S. Cellular Field. He enters the game with the fourth-best ERA in the majors at 2.34, posting just 14 walks with a league-high 101 strikeouts over 73 innings across 10 starts. He has held the opposition to a .177 batting average with a 0.81 WHIP. He hasn't skipped a beat since moving from the Windy City to Beantown. The Red Sox have dropped four of their past five on the road, but they're 6-2 in their past eight outings and 4-1 in Sale's past five assignments. He catches his old teammates at a good time, as the Pale Hose have won just once over the past nine against teams with a winning record.
Coldest pitcher: Bartolo Colon, Braves (2-5, 6.96 ERA)
Colon appears to have reached the end of the road in his illustrious career, as the 44-year-old hasn't shown any signs of consistency. He enters with the highest ERA in the majors at 6.96, and he is coming off an awful outing against the Pirates on May 25 when he allowed seven runs and 10 hits over five innings. Since April 21 he is 1-3 with a 9.00 ERA over the past six outings. The Braves doubled up the Mike Trout-less Angels by a 6-3 count at the Big A on Monday, and they're a respectable 6-3 over their past nine road outings.
Biggest UNDER run: Orioles (6-2 past eight games overall)
The O's picked up a 3-2 victory on Monday against the Yankees, as Dylan Bundy played the role as stopper and got his team back into the win column after a seven-game losing skid. The 'under' (9.5) easily cashed in that game, and has hit in four of the past five games in Oriole Park at Camden Yards. It was a rather surprising low-scoring game considering the first six meetings between these American League East rivals saw the 'over' cash. The 'under' is 7-1 in New York's past eight overall and 4-1 in their past five vs. RHP. However, the over is 6-2 in Luis Severino's past eight starts against divisional foes and 5-2 in his past seven against teams with a winning overall record.
Biggest OVER run: Pirates (5-1-1 past seven games overall)
The Pirates actually saw the 'under' cash in their past 4-3 win against the Diamondbacks on Monday, but the 'over' is 5-1-1 in their past seven games overall and 5-3-2 in their past 10 games at home. While the under is 3-1-1 in Nova's past five home starts against a team with a winning record and 5-2 in his past seven against National League West foes. However, the over is 6-2 in their past eight starts against left-handed starters and 10-4-3 in their past 17 following a victory.
Matchup to watch: Giants vs. Nationals
The Giants and Nationals played a rather testy game on Memorial Day, as the visitors picked up a 3-0 win. However, that wasn't the biggest story. Bryce Harper charged the mound in the eighth inning on Monday after being clipped on the right hip by a pitch. The two had a history, as Harper took him deep twice in the 2014 playoffs. Gio Gonzalez takes the hill for the Nats in the middle game, and hopefully cooler heads prevail. Gio hasn't won in five starts since flipping the calendar to May. He is 4-4 with a 2.94 ERA across 11 career starts against the Giants. He'll be opposed by Jeff Samardzija, who has struck out at least eight batters over each of his past five starts. After a dismal start to the season he has pieced it together for a 2.89 ERA over the past six outings, chopping his ERA down from 7.40 to 4.50 since April 23.
Betcha didn’t know: The Astros entered the eighth inning in Monday's game down 8-2, but they ripped off 11 runs against the Twins bullpen in that frame before posting three more in the ninth. They finished by doubling up the Twins by a 16-8 count. The Astros were 0-659 in franchise history when trailing by six or more runs heading into the eighth inning, so perhaps this is Houston's year. They'll turn to Mike Fiers to keep it going. He is 3-1 with a 3.16 ERA over six starts and one relief appearance against the Twins in his career. If he is to be successful, though, he will need to keep the ball in the yard. He is tied for the major league lead with 18 homers allowed.
Biggest public favorite: Blue Jays (-175) vs. Reds
Biggest public underdog: Nationals (+120) at Giants
Biggest line move: Padres (+145 to +125) vs. Cubs
Dave's MLB Tuesday
By Dave Essler
Seattle/Colorado: The Mariner's bullpen has all of a sudden found themselves, and I'd like to think they can win in Colorado again, but even after yesterday's win they're 10-20 on the road. The Rockies are 10-5 against lefties. Tyler Anderson has been great at keeping the ball down, he's very good at home, and quite tough on left-handed hitters. Miranda has been feast or famine this season, lately feast, so I am hesitant to go to that well again. It's Colorado or nothing, and a reasonably solid lean to the under.
Houston/Minnesota: We all know what the Astros did Monday, and to be honest if Berrios can't give the Twins seven innings I think they'll do it again. The problem their is Fiers - who is a fly ball pitcher that's struggling. It's going to be in the upper 50's there, with a decent breeze out to right - so it's back to being all about Berrios, even if we're looking at a total.I think the Twins score first - whether they can score enough to stave off the bullpen is the key, so F5 under is a solid bet.
Yankees/Orioles: Neither team could hit with Bundy/Montgomery pitching, now it's Tillman and Severino. I don't care for either one, and the bettors care for Tillman less, installing the Yankees as solid road favorites. That's probably for a reason, but Severino might be over valued off the great start against the Royals. He throw too many pitches for my liking, and if history is any indicator the last time that happened he was torched by the Astros. It might be easier to get behind Tillman at this point since at the very least he's kept the ball in the park, and I don't trust New Yorks' bullpen.
Boston/Chicago: I told people that I don't play on pitchers' coming off the DL, and that Price and Boston at -175 (or more) wasn't even close to right, and yet I did nothing with it myself. But, it's good to know you're seeing things well, we'll go with that. Sale against his former team, which is almost always a play-on spot - however, that (pitching against Sale) should get him amped, I would think. He's off a horrid start, hence undervalued because he can be solid and has pitched well against Boston. Pedroia is downgraded to probably being out, and given that Boston is sub .500 on the road, the White Sox RL has some value as IMO they've got the better back end right now.
Oakland/Cleveland: The Indians barely got by Oakland with Carassco against Mengden, now it's Bauer against Gray. Trevor Bauer isn't worth -165 to anyone in my opinion. Without looking too terribly far I can tell you that unless there's a cataclysmic event in the next twenty-four hours it will be Oakland or nothing, maybe first-five to eliminate the Indians' bullpen advantage.
Cubs/Padres: If the Cubs, now losers of four straight, can't beat a Padres team that flew coast-to-coast with Hendrick then one might give them even worse odds with Butler. However, he's at least been respectable if nothing else. Any full-game wager on the Cubs will involve the pen since Butler isn't accustomed to pitching more than 5-6 innings. What I do think is significant is that San Diego scored four of those runs Monday on one pitch after two singles and a HBP, I believe. Lamet was pretty sharp in his debut against the Mets, so I do look for a lower scoring game here and would not rule out the San Diego Padres, at least the RL.
Dodgers/Cardinals: The market was right to be fading Leake on Monday, especially since St. Louis just can't score right now. I've said for two years that both Wacha and Carlos Martinez threw too many pitches when they were too young, not that they're old now, but one or both are the next Tommy John candidates IMO. Wacha isn't throwing past the sixth inning and is off a high pitch-count game. These two (Maeda and Wacha) just faced off last week in LA, a game the Dodgers won 7-3 and I think that's about what's happening here again.
Washington/San Francisco: I have to wonder how much effect Harper getting plunked and the brawl has on Tuesday's game. Perhaps the most significant thing to me was that Posey didn't do anything to protect his pitcher at all. Gio has had his ups and downs and typically isn't someone I want money on, but he's off a lower taxing game and has fared pretty well against the Giants over his career. In truth I trust him to keep his emotions in check more than Samardzija, who's actually been worse at home in the big park than on the road. With Murphy back in, I like the Nationals here - perhaps that little Giants' run was smoke and mirrors, some of which was against weaker teams, too.
Arizona/Pittsburgh: The Pirates were another one I threw out as a solid lean on Monday but didn't formally add. Nova appears to be showing some cracks lately, and he's not striking people out. Ray has had two two-hit shutouts, but against the Padres and Brewers - three starts ago the Pirates hit him pretty hard, but with Polanco out that does at least change the order around. He hasn't been hitting and hasn't done anything against Ray that would raise any concerns. The market opened Arizona as favorites, but I've seen some Pittsburgh money lately. What I think is that we'll see more runs than the posted total since we'll have a very good weather pattern for that.
Brewers/Mets: I would have been wrong thinking that it would have been the Brewers with Garza or nothing on Monday. So, good no-call there. Sometimes that's as good as a win. In spite of Davies' lack of bettor love, the Brewers have won six of his last seven starts, although he has received very good run support, and in a vary limited sample size the Mets haven't done much with him. Pill was very good in Las Vegas (AAA) this season, at least at keeping the ball in the park, but I have to wonder how deep he can pitch, period. The Mets bullpen appears to be in slightly better form here, so if the lack of familiarity with Pill helps at all, he might get through the order a couple of times, so lean Mets and perhaps under.
Twins host red-hot Astros
By: StatFox.com
Houston will be going for its sixth straight win when it faces Minnesota on Tuesday.
The Astros and Twins played an exciting game on Monday, as the Twins were up 7-2 heading into the eighth inning and ended up losing that one. Houston scored 11 runs in the top of the eighth, and then the Astros piled on an extra three in the top of the ninth as well. This team is as hot as could be right now, as it has won seven of its past eight games heading into Tuesday night. The Twins, meanwhile, have now lost three of their past four. They’ll be desperate for a win in this one, but they should feel good about their chances here. RHP Jose Berrios (3-0, 1.66 ERA, 22 K) will be on the mound for Minnesota, and the young prospect has looked like a bona fide star this season. For Houston, RHP Mike Fiers (1-2, 5.21 ERA, 38 K) is expected to start this game. It is, however, possible that somebody else does it for him. One trend that stands out when looking at this one is the fact that Houston is 16-6 against the money line in road games this season. The Twins, meanwhile, are an impressive 16-7 against the money line in night games on the year.
The Astros are incredibly hot right now and they’ll look to have another offensive explosion on Tuesday night. Mike Fiers is expected to start for Houston, but there’s a good chance that somebody else will make a spot start here. That means that the Astros are going to need their offense, as they must be ready to provide plenty of run support to a pitcher that isn’t ready. Some guys that should be able to step up in this one are OF Carlos Beltran (.253 BA, 6 HR, 18 RBI) and SS Carlos Correa (.311 BA, 8 HR, 30 RBI). Beltran is coming off of a monster game against Minnesota, going 4-for-5 with a homer and three RBI. He has now homered in two of his past three games, and it seems as though he could finally be getting hot for his new team. Correa, meanwhile, has been one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball over the past week. Correa has seen his average rise from .288 to .311 over the past five games. He has two doubles, two homers and six RBI in that time, and he’ll be hoping that he can get to Berrios here.
The Twins are sending Jose Berrios to the mound on Tuesday and the righty has been unhittable lately. In three starts this season, Berrios has allowed just four earned runs in 21.2 innings of work. He has 22 strikeouts in those three games, and he has walked just four batters. If he can keep his control in check then he just might become the ace that the Twins thought they had in him. He has certainly looked the part of that early on in 2017. Offensively, the Twins will need to be ready to score some runs here. The Astros have an explosive offense, so Minnesota knows it might need to put up a big number. That means that guys like 3B Miguel Sano (.292 BA, 12 HR, 39 RBI) and 2B Brian Dozier (.251 BA, 7 HR, 21 RBI) will need to come up big here. Dozier is on a 10-game hitting streak coming into this one, so he should be feeling good when he gets on the field on Tuesday. Sano, meanwhile, snapped a six-game homerless streak on Tuesday. It’d be big if he can hit another here.