MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Tuesday, May 9th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Cardinals @ Marlins
Wainwright is 2-0, 5.51 in his last three starts; his last four starts went over.
Straily is 0-2, 4.67 in his last three starts- three of his last four starts stayed under.
St Louis won its last seven road games; over is 13-2-1 in their last 16 games. Miami lost ten of last 13 games; five of last six at home. Under is 3-2 in their last five home games.
Giants @ Mets
Samardzija is 0-0, 2.40 in his last two starts; his last five starts stayed under.
Wheeler is 1-2, 4.91 in six starts this year; over is 4-0-1 in his last five.
Giants lost last four games, are 2-9 in last 11 road games. Mets won four of last five games. Over is 11-2 in their last 13 games.
Cubs @ Rockies
Arrieta is 1-1, 7.16 in his last three starts, all of which went over. Lackey is 1-3, 5.90 in his last five starts (over 5-1).
Senzatela is 4-1, 3.08 in six starts this year; his last three starts went over. Freeland is 2-0, 1.16 in his last four starts (under 6-0).
Cubs played an extra inning game at home last nite; they’re 3-7 in series openers, 2-3 on road. Colorado won four of its last five games; they’re 7-3 in series openers. Last four Rockies games stayed under.
Pirates @ Dodgers
Nova is 2-2, 2.10 in his last four starts, all of which stayed under.
Urias is 0-0, 0.84 in two starts this year (under 2-0); both games went extra innings.
Pittsburgh lost five of last six road games; four of last five Pirate games stayed under. Dodgers won eight of last ten games; five of their last six games went over.
American League
Indians @ Blue Jays
Carrasco is 2-2, 2.02 in his last five starts (under 6-0).
Bolsinger is making his first ’17 start; he is 8-16, 4.61 in 36 MLB starts, 1-1, 1.46 in four AAA games this year (two starts).
Indians won three of last five games; under is 10-0 in Indians’ last ten road games. Toronto is 5-7 in its last 12 games; under is 9-4 in their home games.
Royals @ Rays
Young is making his first ’17 start; he is 79-67, 3.87 in 219 MLB starts. This year, he has thrown 10.2 innings in seven relief stints for the Royals.
Andriese is 2-1, 2.88 in his last four starts- four of his last five starts stayed under.
Royals lost three of last five games; under is 6-2 in their last eight games. Tampa Bay is 3-6 in its last nine home games. Under is 7-3 in Rays’ last nine games.
Twins @ White Sox
Santiago is 2-0, 2.96 in his last four starts (over 4-2).
Pelfrey is 0-2, 6.28 in three starts this year (under 2-1).
Minnesota lost three of last four games; they’re 7-3 in series openers, 3-1 on road. Over is 8-1 in their last nine games. White Sox lost six of last eight games, are 3-7 in series openers, 1-3 at home. Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
Angels @ A’s
Meyer is 0-1, 9.39 in two starts this year (over 2-0).
Cotton is 1-2, 6.89 in three home starts (under 4-2).
Angels lost five of last six games; three of their last four road games went over. Oakland won its last three games, all walk-off wins; over is 8-2 in their last ten games.
Interleague
Nationals @ Orioles
Scherzer is 3-1, 2.89 in his last four starts (over 3-3).
Jimenez is 1-1, 7.83 in five starts this year (over 4-1).
Nationals won four of last six games; under is 4-2 in their last six games. Baltimore won its last five games; under is 5-3 in their last eight games.
Bronx @ Cincinnati
Sabathia is 0-1, 10.43 in his last three starts; over is 4-1 in his last five starts.
Adleman is 1-1, 5.19 in three starts this year (over 2-1).
New York won its last six games; over is 10-1 in their last 11 games. Cincinnati won five of its last six games; over is 8-3 in their last eleven home games.
Rangers @ Padres
Griffin is 3-0, 2.65 in his last three starts (over 3-1).
Weaver is 0-3, 7.16 in six starts this year (over 4-2).
Rangers lost eight of last ten road games; under is 3-1 in their last four games. San Diego lost four of its last five games; over is 7-2 in their last nine home games.
Mariners @ Phillies
Miranda is 3-1, 2.82 in his last four starts (under 4-2).
Eickhoff is 0-3, 4.21 in six starts this year (under 3-2-1).
Seattle won four of its last five games; they’re 1-4 in road series openers. Over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Phillies lost five of last six games; they’re 5-5 in series openers. Over is 6-2-1 in their last nine games.
Red Sox @ Brewers
Pomeranz is 2-0, 3.18 in his last two starts (under 3-2).
Peralta is 1-2, 7.36 in his last three starts (under 4-2).
Red Sox won four of last six games, are 1-3 in road series openers. Over is 3-1 in their last four games. Milwaukee is 4-5 in its last nine games, 7-3 in series openers. Under is 4-1 in their last five games.
Braves @ Astros
Colon is 0-2, 8.44 in his last three starts (over 4-1 in his last five).
Morton is 3-1, 3.91 in his last four starts; his last three starts went over.
Braves lost their last four games; they’re 3-7 in series openers. Over is 8-1-2 in their last 11 games. Houston won six of last eight games; they’re 4-1 in home series openers. Over is 5-2 in their last seven home games.
Tigers @ Diamondbacks
Verlander is 1-0, 1.93 in his last two starts (over 3-3).
Ray is 0-2, 3.55 in his last two starts (under 4-1 in his last five).
Tigers lost three of last four games, are 7-3 in series openers. Over is 7-0-1 in their last eight road games. Arizona lost four of last five games; they’re 7-3 in series openers, 4-1 at home. Diamondbacks’ last five games stayed under the total.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
StL-Mia: Wainwright 2-4; Straily 3-3
SF-NY: Samardzija 2-4; Wheeler 2-3
Chi-Colo: Arrieta 4-2 Lackey 3-3; Senzatela 5-1 Freeland 5-1
Pitt-LA: Nova 3-3; Urias 1-1
American League
Clev-Tor: Carrasco 4-2; Bolsinger 0-0
KC-TB: Young 0-0; Andriese 3-3
Minn-Chi: Santiago 3-3; Pelfrey 1-2
LAA-A’s: Meyer 0-2; Cotton 3-3
Interleague
Wsh-Balt: Scherzer 4-2; Jimenez 4-1
NY-Cin: Sabathia 5-1; Adleman 1-2
Tex-SD: Griffin 4-0; Weaver 0-6
Sea-Phil: Miranda 4-2; Eickhoff 1-5
Bos-Mil: Pomeranz 4-1; Peralta 4-2
Atl-Hst: Colon 3-3; Morton 4-2
Det-Ariz: Verlander 3-3; Ray 4-2
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
StL-Mia: Wainwright 1-6; Straily 0-6
SF-NY: Samardzija 2-6; Wheeler 4-6
Chi-Colo: Arrieta 4-2 Lackey 4-6; Senzatela 5-1 Freeland 1-6
Pitt-LA: Nova 0-6; Urias 0-2
American League
Clev-Tor: Carrasco 0-6; Bolsinger 0-0
KC-TB: Young 0-0; Andriese 4-6
Minn-Chi: Santiago 0-6; Pelfrey 2-3
LAA-A’s: Meyer 1-2; Cotton 3-6
Interleague
Wsh-Balt: Scherzer 2-6; Jimenez 3-5
NY-Cin: Sabathia 2-6; Adleman 0-3
Tex-SD: Griffin 1-4; Weaver 1-6
Sea-Phil: Miranda 3-6; Eickhoff 1-6
Bos-Mil: Pomeranz 2-5; Peralta 2-6
Atl-Hst: Colon 2-6; Morton 1-6
Det-Ariz: Verlander 3-6; Ray 2-6
Umpires
National League
StL-Mia- Under is 5-0-1 in Fletcher games this season.
SF-NY- Last four Reynolds games stayed under.
Pitt-LA- Under is 3-1-1 in Davis games this season.
American League
Clev-Tor- Home team won four of five Cuzzi games.
KC-TB- Over is 4-2 in Dreckman games this season.
LA-A’s- Last three Conroy games stayed under total.
Interleague
Tex-SD- Three of last four Timmons games went over.
Wsh-Balt- Four of last five Diaz games went over total.
NY-Cin- Underdogs won four of last five Barksdale games.
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MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
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New York Yankees at Cincinnati Reds
The closing matchup of a two game interleague series between Cincinnati Reds and visiting New York Yankees at Great American Ball Park is today’s baseball betting focus.
According to the current betting odds the Yankees enter this contest as -110 to -120 road favorites depending on locale.
Righthander Tim Adleman will toe the rubber Cinci, bringing a 1-1 record to the hill with a 4.22 ERA. Adleman allowed two runs over six innings during his most recent start, a 4-2 win Thursday over Pittsburgh.
New York will trot out lefty C.C. Sabathia who has a 2-1 record, 5.45 ERA. Sabathia is pitching under a cloud as he is winless in three starts saddled with 10.43 ERA. However, Yankees' won two of the three contests with their bats bailing him out by scoring 23 runs over the span.
Taking a road favorite with a shaky hurler is cause to ratchet up tension for a sports handicapper. However, in this case, the numbers add up well enough to conclude that New York is the right choice.
The fact Yankees reside in the American League East is bad news for Cincinnati. The Reds have floundered vs the AL East winning just 3 of 17 games. Additionally, Reds have a dreadful 2-11 record last twelve interleague home games vs a team with a winning record. One final betting nugget, Reds are on a 1-3 skid vs a southpaw starter and Sabathia's teams have had success vs Reds winning 7 of his last 10 starts.
Tuesday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Yankees (6-0 last six)
Following an 18-inning marathon victory over the Cubs on Sunday to complete a three-game sweep of the defending champions, New York didn’t let up in Monday’s 10-4 victory at Cincinnati. The Yankees extended their winning streak to six games, which is two shy of a hot streak they accumulated back in April. The Bronx Bombers have had their way in interleague play by racking up an 8-2 mark against the National League Central, including a 5-2 ledger on the highway.
The one pitcher in the Yankees’ rotation that has struggled of late takes the mound on Tuesday as CC Sabathia is winless in his last three outings. The 2007 AL Cy Young award winner allowed a total of 13 earned runs in his past two starts (9.2 innings), but the Yankees rallied past the Orioles and Blue Jays at home by scoring a combined 22 runs. However, the Yankees are 5-1 in his six starts this season, while New York owns a solid 13-4 mark in its last 17 contests against right-handed starters, facing Cincinnati’s Tim Adleman.
Coldest team: Giants (2-7 last nine)
After getting outscored by Cincinnati, 31-5 in an ugly sweep by the Reds this past weekend, the Giants showed some fight on Monday. However, San Francisco couldn’t hold on to several leads in a 4-3 walk-off loss to the Mets, the fourth straight game the Giants have been limited to three runs or fewer. The Giants fell to 2-5 in road series openers, as six of those games have been decided by one run.
Jeff Samardzija doesn’t have a victory to his name this season for San Francisco, but the right-hander has pitched better lately. Samardzija is coming off a pair of no-decisions in Giants’ victories over the Padres and Dodgers, while allowing four runs (two earned runs) in 15 innings of work. Samardzija pitched well in a 2-0 loss to the Mets last season at AT&T Park, giving up two earned runs and three hits in seven innings, but Noah Syndergaard outdueled the former Notre Dame wide receiver by allowing two hits in eight innings for New York.
Hottest pitcher: Kyle Freeland, Rockies (3-1, 2.65 ERA)
The Cubs received a break on Monday following its 18-inning loss to the Yankees on Sunday night, as Chicago was rained out at Colorado. The Rockies and Cubs play a double-header on Tuesday as Freeland will take the ball in the second contest at night. The Colorado southpaw has seen the UNDER cash in all six outings this season, while the Rockies own a 5-1 record in those starts. The Denver native has allowed one earned run in five outings, including solid starts at home against the Giants and Dodgers.
Coldest pitcher: Bartolo Colon, Braves (1-3, 6.27 ERA)
Atlanta hits the road following a dreadful 1-5 homestand, which included a sweep at the hands of St. Louis. The Braves travel to Houston as Colon has yielded 28 hits and 15 earned runs in his last three starts, while coming off a 16-5 defeat to his old team, the Mets last Thursday. Atlanta has yet to lose consecutive starts made by Colon this season, while the Braves are 4-1 in their last five games away from SunTrust Park.
Biggest OVER run: Athletics (7-1 last eight)
Oakland picked up a pair of walk-off wins against Detroit this past weekend, while scoring at least six runs in each of their last three victories. The A’s pitching didn’t help matters during this OVER stretch by giving up at least five runs in the last eight games. Oakland continues its series with Los Angeles as the two AL West rivals cashed the UNDER in six of the first eight matchups. Jharel Cotton began the season with four consecutive UNDERS for Oakland, but the right-hander is riding back-to-back OVERS his last two starts as he heads to the hill on Tuesday.
Biggest UNDER run: Indians (7-0 last seven)
Cleveland returned to Toronto for the first time since capturing the AL pennant last October as the Indians fell to the Blue Jays, 4-2. The Tribe hit the UNDER for the seventh straight game as well as the seventh consecutive meeting with the Blue Jays since last season. Cleveland’s offense has disappeared of late by scoring three runs or fewer in all seven of these contests, while not posting at least four runs on the road since a 7-0 victory over the White Sox on April 22.
Matchup to watch: Nationals vs. Orioles
The Beltway Series began on Monday with Baltimore jumping out to a 4-0 lead after one inning and holding off Washington, 6-4. The Orioles went deep three times off Gio Gonzalez in the first inning as Baltimore moved their winning streak to five. Washington suffered only its second loss in six road series openers, while losing consecutive games for just the third time this season.
Cy Young winner Max Scherzer bounced back from a loss to the Mets by shutting down the Diamondbacks last Wednesday, 4-2. Scherzer scattered two hits and allowed one earned run in seven innings, while striking out a season-high 11 batters. Washington owns a perfect 3-0 record in Scherzer’s three road starts this season, as the Nationals have won 11 straight away outings by the right-hander dating back to last June.
Veteran right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez is making his first start since April 29 as he tossed three innings of relief against the Red Sox on May 3. Baltimore has won four of Jimenez’s five starts this season, including a perfect 2-0 mark at Camden Yards. The O’s have compiled a 4-1 record in home Game 2’s, while capturing seven of the last eight matchups with the Nationals since 2015.
Betcha didn’t know: The Diamondbacks and Tigers hook up for a series in Phoenix as Robbie Ray heads to the mound for Arizona. Ray is facing his former team for the first time since pitching for Detroit in 2014 as the southpaw won only once in five tries against interleague foes last season.
Biggest public favorite: Astros (-200) vs. Braves
Biggest public underdog: Cardinals (+110) at Marlins
Biggest line move: Rangers (-120 to -140) at Padres
Red-hot Mets host Giants
By: StatFox.com
It’s gut-check time for the Giants, who can really use a victory over the Mets in New York on Tuesday.
San Francisco is a perennial World Series contender, but this team is really in a bad way right now. Dealing with injuries to stars like LHP Madison Bumgarner (Ribs) and SS Brandon Crawford (Groin), the Giants have dug themselves a major hole at 11-22. This team is still good enough to find its way back in the playoff hunt, but they’ll need to start putting together some winning streaks soon. A blown lead against the Mets on Monday night certainly didn’t help, and this is exactly the type of team that San Francisco must find a way to beat. The Mets have also struggled to open the year, but it actually seems like they have turned things around here. New York has won four of its past five games and seven of its past 10. If the Mets win on Tuesday then they will have secured a fourth consecutive series victory. The Mets will be confident in their ability to earn this victory too, as they have gone 8-7 against the Giants over the past three seasons. The starters in this Tuesday night matchup will be RHP Jeff Samardzija (0-4, 5.03 ERA, 46 K) for San Francisco and RHP Zack Wheeler (1-2, 4.78 ERA, 25 K) for New York. The Giants are just 2-9 against the money line when the total is between 8 and 8.5 with Samardzija on the hill over the past two seasons. That should have the Mets rather giddy when they step onto the field for this one.
The Giants were considered to be serious contenders to win the NL West, but they currently sit in last in the division standings. It’s time for that to change, and it’s also time for Jeff Samardzija to earn his first win of the season. The righty has been spectacular in his last two trips to the mound, allowing only two earned runs in his last 15 innings of work. Samardzija struck out 16 batters in those games, and he’ll look to continue to miss bats on Tuesday. Offensively, the Giants need some of their bats to wake up in this one. One guy that has gotten it going lately is C Buster Posey (.363 BA, 3 HR, 6 RBI). Posey is currently fourth in the NL in batting average, and he homered against the Mets on Monday. Zack Wheeler is prone to making mistakes over the middle of the plate, so expect Posey to make him pay if he does. The team will, however, need somebody else to step up. One guy that could help Posey provide some runs is 1B Brandon Belt (.228 BA, 4 HR, 14 RBI). Belt is off to a slow start this season, but his power could be an issue for Wheeler on Tuesday. If he can find a way to go yard then that would be big for Samardzija and the Giants.
The Mets are rolling right now and they have an opportunity to get back to .500 with a win on Tuesday. Zack Wheeler will be taking the ball for them and he is coming off of a decent outing for New York. Wheeler faced the Nationals on Apr. 29 and allowed only one earned run in 4.2 innings of work. He will, however, need to start working further into games. He has only pitched seven innings in a game once this year and that is rather unacceptable for a starting pitcher. The Mets will be hoping Wheeler can eat some more innings on Tuesday. Offensively, OF Curtis Granderson (.142 BA, 2 HR, 10 RBI) could be ready to turn things around for New York. Granderson has slumped hard to open the year, but he pinch hit last night and came away with a huge RBI double. The Mets will be hoping that gave him some confidence moving forward. OF Jay Bruce (.281 BA, 9 HR, 25 RBI) could be in for a big game on Tuesday, though. Bruce has been absurd at the plate this season, and his power could be a good match for Samardzija’s style of pitching. It wouldn’t be shocking if he hit a bomb on Tuesday.
MLB Daily Line Drive
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Double-Play Picks
New York Yankees at Cincinnati Reds (-105, 9)
The Over streaks that both the Yankees and Reds are putting up right now will come to an end at some point, it just won't be today.
The Yankees Over/Under record is 20-10 this season (9-1 in their last 10 overall) and the Reds own an O/U record of 19-11 (13-3 in their last 16 overall). Both clubs will be running questionable starters to the hill Tuesday night in a very hitter-friendly ballpark.
CC Sabathia got off to a great start to his 2017 season, and he does own a team W/L record of 5-1, but his last two outings have been less-than-stellar. Sabathia has allowed 13 earned runs in 9.2 innings of work over his last two starts and will face a Reds' lineup that has had great success against left-handed pitching (.262 batting average and 5.62 runs per nine innings vs. lefties this season).
The Reds are scheduled to start right-hander Tim Adleman this evening. This will be Adleman's fourth start of the year and the first three were...just O.K. Sorry Tim, "just O.K." isn't going to cut it against these Yankees.
The Bronx Bombers are back! The Yankees lead the American League in Runs Scored, Home Runs, OPS, and are second (one percentage point behind the Houston Astros) in Team Batting Average. They are young, exciting to watch, and they can flat-out cash Over tickets.
Pick: Over 9
Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies (Game 2) (+110, 8 )
Fading the Chicago Cubs in any situation is a dicey proposition, but Game 2 of today's doubleheader seems like the perfect spot.
The Cubs are reeling and tired from getting swept by the Yankees over the weekend (although yesterday's rain-out helped them out in that regard) but you have to assume they will be operating with a split-squad today in Denver. Javier Baez injured his foot Sunday night but will start at SS for Game 1, Anthony Rizzo took an Aroldis Chapman fastball to the bony part of the forearm (x-rays came back clean), and Willson Contreras caught all 18 innings of Sunday night's marathon (he will start Game 2)
John Lackey gets the ball for the Cubs in Game 2 tonight and he has struggled over his last few starts (6.35 ERA in his last three) and has also pitched poorly on the road in 2017 (6.00 ERA in three starts). Another factor to consider is Lackey's lack of success at Coors Field during his career. In the three starts he has made in The Mile High City his teams are 0-3 and he owns an ERA of 9.56.
On the home side, Kyle Freeland climbs the hill for the Rockies for his seventh career start. The first month of Freeland's major league career has gone very, very well. His only loss this season was a disappointing 6-0 defeat at the hands of the San Diego Padres. His overall numbers are very good (Team W/L 5-1, 2.65 ERA) but if you take away that one start his numbers are freakish in his remaining five outings (Team W/L 5-0, 1.20 ERA). Reminder: half of his games are played in Denver.
This is a big test for Freeland, but he should pass with flying colors.
Pick: Rockies +125
Yesterday: 2-0
Season: 28-20-2
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: A.J. Griffin, Texas Rangers (3-0, 3.54 ERA, $497)
A.J. Griffin missed the early part of the season dealing with gout, but after a couple of rocky outings, the Rangers right-hander has began to find his groove.
Griffin is 2-0 in his last two starts, allowing just one earned run, with 15 strikeouts and just two walks in 11 innings pitched. Even with the early rust, the Rangers have won all four of his starts, making Griffin the third best money pitcher in the bigs at $497. He and the Rangers are -140 favorites at the San Deigo Padres today.
Slumping: Jered Weaver, San Diego Padres (0-3, 5.51 ERA, $-600)
Speaking of the money pitchers and the Padres, only one pitcher has cost bettors more money than Jered Weaver. The Padres are 0-6 in his starts this season, despite the fact Weaver pitched pretty well in his first four starts.
The last two, however, have been disastrous. In his last start he allowed 10 runs, five earned on 10 hits in just four innings of work and he has a 9.32 ERA in his last outings. The Padres are +130 home dogs facing off against the Rangers.
Tuesday's Top Trends
* Under is 7-0 in Carlos Carrasco's last seven starts overall. Indians @ Blue Jays, O/U: 8.
* Cardinals are 7-0 in their last seven road games. Cardinals +105 @ Marlins.
* Under is 6-0 in the last six meetings between the Twins and White Sox. O/U: 8.5.
* Astros are 7-0 in their last seven during Game 1 of a series. Astros -190 vs. Braves.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
Tueday should be a mostly decent day for baseball, according to the forecast.
Hitters will be given a bit of a hand this afternoon in San Diego, where there will be a moderate 12-13 mile per hour wind blowing out to right-center field for today's Rangers-Padres game. The total is currently 8.5.
In Oakland it's more of the same, as winds will gust around between 12-13 miles per hour out to right-center field as the A's are scheduled to host Angels.
Meanwhile in Cincinnati, there is a chance of thunderstorms and a 54 percent chance of rain for tonight's interleague contest between the Reds and the New York Yankees at the Great American Ballpark.
Ump Of The Day
Andy Fletcher: There hasn't been any home team bias when Fletcher has been calling balls and strikes this season. The Under is 5-1 in the six games he has officiated this year, which includes the last five overall. The home team money total in his games is $-577, which means underdogs at decent value have been cashing when Fletcher is behind home plate. That's where he'll be when the Nationals visit the Orioles for an interleague matchup tonight. Washington is currently a -160 road favorite.