MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Tuesday, October 10th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
WASHINGTON (98 - 67) at CHICAGO CUBS (94 - 71) - 5:35 PM
TANNER ROARK (R) vs. JAKE ARRIETA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 26-30 (-17.6 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
WASHINGTON is 49-61 (-22.1 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 50-32 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
WASHINGTON is 39-25 (+10.3 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 94-71 (-10.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 362-303 (-82.7 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 905-820 (-156.9 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 240-276 (-69.0 Units) against the money line when playing on Tuesday since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 38-36 (-19.7 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 73-56 (-11.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 51-42 (-10.5 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 15-17 (-10.6 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 5-5 (+0.2 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.7 Units)
TANNER ROARK vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
ROARK is 3-2 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 3.75 and a WHIP of 1.250.
His team's record is 3-3 (-0.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-3. (-0.3 units)
JAKE ARRIETA vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
ARRIETA is 1-2 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 5.48 and a WHIP of 1.674.
His team's record is 5-4 (+0.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-3. (+2.6 units)
WASHINGTON vs. CHI CUBS
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games on the road
Chi Cubs are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games when playing at home against Washington
Chi Cubs are 17-5 SU in their last 22 games
WASHINGTON @ CHI CUBS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games
Chi Cubs is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
Chi Cubs is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games
StatFox Super Situations
WASHINGTON at CHICAGO CUBS
Play On - Home teams (CHICAGO CUBS) cold hitting team - batting .215 or worse over their last 5 games, starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings
558-359 since 1997. ( 60.9% | 152.1 units )
42-28 this year. ( 60.0% | 6.3 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends
WASHINGTON at CHICAGO CUBS
WASHINGTON is 45-17 (+26.2 Units) against the money line in Road games after allowing 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: WASHINGTON (5.0) , OPPONENT (3.0)
MLB Knowledge
Washington @ Chicago
Nationals are 5-5 against the Cubs this season (over 6-4).
Roark is 0-2, 6.94 in his last two starts; under is 10-2 in his last 12 starts. Washington is 8-7 in his road starts. He is 1-0, 2.84 against the Cubs this season.
Arrieta is 0-2, 7.84 in his last three starts; under is 5-3-1 in his last nine. Chicago is 6-4 in his home starts. He is 0-1, 13.50 vs Washington this year.
Cubs won the World Series LY, their first title since 1908; this is their 3rd year in a row in the playoffs. Washington is in the playoffs for 4th time in six years- they lost in this round the previous three times. Nationals have never been in the World Series.
Armadillosports.com
Cubs look to advance to NLCS
By Statfox
The Cubs will be looking to close out the series with a victory over the Nationals in Game 4 on Tuesday.
Washington had a 1-0 lead late in Game 3, but Chicago ended up coming back and taking control of the series. Prior to last game, it looked like the Nationals were the team that was in better shape. They might have split wins in D.C., but they also had ace Max Scherzer on the mound in Game 4. That hardly matters now, though. The Cubs are now going to be in a situation where they can end this series with a win at home, and they will not be nervous at all here. The starters in this Tuesday night meeting are going to be RHP Tanner Roark (13-11, 4.67 ERA, 166 K) for Washington and RHP Jake Arrieta (14-10, 3.53 ERA, 163 K) for Chicago. The edge on the mound here definitely looks like it goes to the Cubs, as Arrieta is the team’s former ace and has his fair share of big game experience. The Nationals will, however, be open to Roark giving them just a short outing here, as they could really bring any of their rested starters in for some relief work. It’s do-or-die for the Nationals, so they’re going to be willing to pull out all the stops in order to extend their season.
The Nationals are facing elimination on Wednesday, which means that Tanner Roark has very little margin for error in this game. One thing that should get Roark amped up for this one is the fact that he was excellent in his last trip to Wrigley Field. He started against the Cubs in Chicago on Aug. 4, when he threw 6.1 innings of two-run ball. Another outing like that would certainly be much appreciated by the Nationals in this game, but they really only need him to go four or five innings in this one. As for the Nationals offense, the team can’t win this game unless the superstars come ready to play. That was not the case on Monday, when the Nationals’ only run was unearned. Washington needs OF Bryce Harper, 2B Daniel Murphy, and 1B Ryan Zimmerman. Zimmerman drove in the run on Monday, but he’ll need to come ready to do it once again in this one. Harper and Murphy, however, did not do anything in Game 3. If they don’t show up in Game 4 then they’ll hear about it all offseason.
The Cubs are looking to advance to the NLCS with a victory on Tuesday and Jake Arrieta will be the guy tasked with getting them through this one. Arrieta was once the guy that the Cubs would feel comfortable throwing out there in a Game 1, but he’s now just the best fourth starter in baseball. While he is no longer pitching like the perennial Cy Young candidate he was a few years ago, he’s certainly still a top of the rotation guy. The righty also happens to be pitching well as of late, as he has gone 14 straight games without allowing four or more earned runs. He did, however, allow five earned runs in six innings in his only start against the Nationals this year. He knows he needs to be better than that and both he and his teammates will certainly be expecting him to be. Offensively, any of these Cubs can easily step it up in this one. 1B Anthony Rizzo is, however, the one to keep an eye on here. Rizzo had the game-winning hit in the bottom of the eighth on Monday. He has been as clutch as could be for the Cubs and that should continue here.
Tuesday's NLDS Playoff Betting Preview
Covers.com
Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs (A: +140, H: -160, Total: 7.5)
The Chicago Cubs gave Jake Arrieta a few extra days to rest his tender hamstring, and now he’s in a position to help get the team back to the National League Championship Series. Arrieta gets the ball in Game 4 of the NL Division Series on Tuesday as the Cubs look to close out the visiting Washington Nationals.
Anthony Rizzo’s bloop single in the eighth inning plated the go-ahead run Monday as the Cubs posted a 2-1 victory in Game 3 to regain the series lead. Arrieta can close it out as he makes his first start since Sept. 26, and the 2015 NL Cy Young Award winner says his nagging right hamstring injury is a “non-issue.” He hopes to follow the rest of Chicago's starting rotation, which has allowed two runs - one earned - in 18 2/3 innings over the first three games of the series. Tanner Roark, who grew up about an hour’s drive from Wrigley Field, makes the start for the Nationals as they trail in the series despite permitting only eight runs.
INJURY REPORT:
Nationals - S. Drew (Out Indefinitely, Abdominal), LF R. Raburn (Out Indefinitely, Shoulder), SP J. Ross (Out For Season, Elbow), CF A. Eaton (Out For Season, Knee).
Cubs - SP J. Arrieta (Probable, Hamstring), RP K. Uehara (Out Indefinitely, Knee).
WEATHER REPORT:
The forecast does not look good for Wrigley Field for late afternoon and into the evening with a 70-90 percent chance of wet stuff. If they do, somehow, manage to get this game in the wind will be blowing straight in from center field at 16-18 miles per hour.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Nationals RH Tanner Roark (13-11, 4.67 ERA) vs. Cubs RH Jake Arrieta (14-10, 3.53)
Roark made two relief appearances in the 2014 NLDS and received his first postseason start in last year’s NLDS against the Los Angeles Dodgers, allowing two runs and seven hits over 4 1/3 innings in a no-decision. The 31-year-old had a solid second half but finished the regular season on a sour note, losing his last two turns before giving up two runs in one inning of relief on Oct. 1. Roark is 4-2 with a 4.06 ERA in seven career games (six starts) against the Cubs.
Arrieta is 4-2 with a 3.64 ERA in seven starts over the last two postseasons, including a pair of wins in last year’s World Series. The 31-year-old has been outstanding at home throughout his tenure with the Cubs, going 30-14 with a 2.31 ERA in 59 outings. He hasn’t fared as well against the Nationals, however, as he owns a 1-2 record and 5.48 ERA in nine career meetings.
TRENDS:
* Nationals are 1-4 in their last 5 Divisional Playoff games.
* Cubs are 5-0 in their last 5 Divisional Playoff home games.
* Cubs are 13-5 in Arrieta's last 18 starts vs. National League East.
* Under is 10-1 in Roark's last 11 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 5-1 in Cubs' last 6 playoff home games.
* Under is 4-0 in Arrieta's last 4 starts vs. Nationals.
CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the home chalk Cubs at a rate of 73 percent and the Over is picking up 69 percent of the totals action.
MLB Betting Picks & Tips
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
Well, we’ve only got one game on Tuesday because the Los Angeles Dodgers completed their sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Washington Nationals and Chicago Cubs square off at Wrigley Field in Game 4 of the NLDS. We’ll have a winner-take-all Game 5 in Cleveland on Wednesday night and that would be it for the first round if the Cubs are able to win.
Here are my thoughts and a free pick for the Nationals vs. Cubs:
Washington at Chicago (-150)
The Nationals only have themselves to blame. Except for the eighth inning of Game 2, this offense has been held down by the Cubs pitching staff. Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg have both been tremendous in this series and those are the two games that the Nationals have lost. Now the hopes for their season rest on the shoulders of Tanner Roark. The Cubs will counter with Jake Arrieta.
The Cubs committed four errors and had four hits in Game 3 and were still able to come away with a 2-1 win. The Cubs have only scored eight runs of their own in this series and still hold a series advantage. The Random Number Generator that is the Major League Baseball playoffs has set its sights on this series given what we’ve seen thus far.
Roark was a guy that I had much higher hopes for coming into the season. After posting a 2.83 ERA with a 3.79 FIP and a 4.17 xFIP last season, I expected some regression, but his arsenal with four average or better pitches and a plus changeup seemed like it could follow the Marco Estrada path of carrying a low BABIP to keep his ERA low in spite of his xFIP. Well, Roark had the league’s lowest LOB% among qualified starters for most of the season and posted a 4.67 ERA. His LOB% went from 79.5 percent to 66.3 percent. While regression was expected, that degree of regression was a little bit excessive. Roark actually posted the best K% of his career and had a similar walk rate to last season. He just struggled in the luck metrics and it forced his ERA to balloon. But, his xFIP was basically on par with his two previous seasons and his SIERA was right in line with last year’s mark. Basically, with a league average LOB%, he’d have been exactly what he is – a league average pitcher.
So, you’ve got “average” on one side for the Nationals. On the Cubs side, you have Jake Arrieta, who has a very odd stat line. His 3.53 ERA was accompanied by a 4.16 FIP and a 4.11 xFIP. Arrieta worked just 168.1 innings, 31 fewer than last season, despite making only one fewer start. The right-hander experienced a significant drop in velocity this season, as his sinker fell from 93.8 to 92.2 and his four-seamer fell from 93.6 to 91.9. It took a while for Arrieta to make adjustments to his loss of velo. He threw more changeups and curveballs this year than he did last year at the expense of his slider. Arrieta’s slider usage has gone from 28.9 percent in his Cy Young season of 2015 to 18 percent to 13.5 percent, which would indicate an arm health issue.
In a one-game sample, that isn’t really a concern, but it is something to monitor for next season. Arrieta is a high-variance guy to me in this start. He doesn’t have the type of arsenal that the Nationals have struggled with this season or in this series. He only worked 10.1 innings in September while dealing with some injuries and he gave up five home runs in that sample. He’s not a guy that I would be looking to trust in this spot.
Unfortunately, without a total, I can’t really give any thoughts on that. Right now, my handicap would be to the over, but elimination games are generally tighter and lower scoring, so I don’t know if there will be an edge on that. My guess is no.
When you don’t know in the MLB playoffs, a good rule of thumb is to grab the underdog and take a shot. Roark will be out of this game quickly with the season on the line. I’m not sure how long the Arrieta leash is either. You’ll get into a bullpen toss-up game in short order more often than not with the elimination factor and a manager like Joe Maddon. With that in mind, I’d take the line value on the dog, but I don’t know if the Nationals are able to force a decisive Game 5.