MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, September 12th, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Braves @ Nationals
Teheran is 3-0, 2.84 in his last three starts; under is 5-1-1 in his last seven. He is 2-1, 4.50 vs Washington this year. Braves 8-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-10-5

Gonzalez is 6-1, 1.79 in his last seven starts, last three of which went over. He is 1-1, 4.82 in three starts vs Atlanta this season. Washington is 7-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 17-6-5

Braves lost three of last four road games; over is 5-1 in their last six games overall. Atlanta lost its last six road series openers. Washington won six of last seven games; under is 4-1 in their last five home games. Nationals are 15-9 in home series openers.

Marlins @ Phillies
Peters is 0-1, 2.25 in two starts this year (over 1-1). This is his first road start. Marlins’ first 5-inning record with him: 1-1

Pivetta is 1-3, 7.66 in his last five starts; over is 6-3-2 in his last 11. He is 1-1, 7.11 in three starts vs Miami this year. Phils are 3-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-13-2

Marlins lost 12 of last 14 games; over is 4-1 in their last five. Miami is 10-13 in road series openers. Philly lost five of last seven games; under is 3-1 in their last four. Phillies are 7-14 in home series openers.

Pirates @ Brewers
Cole is 1-1, 2.14 in his last three starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. He is 1-0, 2.33 in four starts vs Milwaukee this year. Pirates are 9-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-13-7

Suter is 0-1, 6.75 in his last four starts (under 5-3-2). Milwaukee is 4-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-3-1

Pirates lost five of their last six games; under is 6-1 in their last seven. Milwaukee won three of last four games; they’re 4-2 in last six home games. Under is 6-2-2 in their last ten games.

Mets @ Cubs
Gsellman is 1-1, 5.84 in his last five starts (under 3-1-1). Mets are 3-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-10-1

Quintana is 3-1, 4.18 in his last five starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Cubs are 4-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-4-3

Mets won five of last seven games; over is 9-4-2 in their last 15 games. New York is 7-11 in last 18 road series openers. Cubs lost six of last eight games; under is 7-3 in their last ten home games. Chicago is 4-1 in last five home series openers.

Reds @ Cardinals
Stephenson is 4-0, 2.78 in his last four starts (over 3-0-1). Reds are 2-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-1-1

Lynn is 0-1, 1.29 in his last three starts; under is 11-2 in his last 13. He is 2-0, 1.59 in three starts vs Cincinnati this year. St Louis is 6-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-13-2

Reds lost five of last six road games (under 4-1-1). Cincinnati is 10-15 in road series openers. St Louis won seven of last eight games; under is 6-2 in their last eight home games. Cardinals are 9-5 in last 14 home series openers.

Rockies @ Diamondbacks
Gray is 3-2, 2.73 in his last five starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. He is 1-1, 4.09 vs Arizona this season. Colorado is 5-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-6-1

Walker is 3-0, 0.78 in his last four starts (under 3-1). He is 2-1, 3.04 in four starts vs Colorado this season. Arizona is 6-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-8-5

Rockies won seven of their last eight games; over is 6-0-1 in their last seven games. Arizona is 14-3 in its last 17 games, but lost three of last four; over is 5-1-2 in their last 8 home games.

Dodgers @ Giants
Kershaw is 6-1, 1.32 in his last eight starts; under is 6-4 in his road starts. He is 2-1, 2.25 vs SF this season. Dodgers are 9-1 in those road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 17-3-3

Cueto is 1-0, 3.77 in his last three starts; his last five starts went over. Giants are 4-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-8-4

Dodgers lost 10 games in row, 15 of their last 16 games; over is 8-2 in their last ten games. Giants are 4-12 in last 16 games; over is 4-0-1 in their last five.

Dodgers-Giants started their game last night at 1:57am, so that result hasn’t been included yet in this article.

American League

Orioles @ Blue Jays
Bundy is 4-1, 3.15 in his last six starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. He is 2-0, 0.69 vs Toronto this season. Orioles are 6-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-9-2

Biagini is 0-4, 7.20 in his last five starts (under 4-1). He is 0-1, 2.19 in two starts vs Baltimore this season. Toronto is 1-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-8-1

Orioles lost their last five games; under is 7-3 in their last ten games. Toronto won its last three home games; under is 7-2-1 in their last ten games.

Tigers @ Indians
Boyd is 0-4, 8.38 in his last six starts; over is 7-3-2 in his last 12 starts. He is 1-1, 2.41 in three starts vs Cleveland this season. Detroit is 6-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-10-5

Kluber is 3-0, 1.96 in his last three starts; under is 5-3 in his last eight. He is 2-1, 5.24 in four starts vs Detroit this season. Cleveland is 9-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-10-2

Tigers lost nine of last 11 games; under is 7-2-1 in their last ten road games. Cleveland won its last 19 games; under is 13-5 in their last 18 home games.

New York vs Tampa Bay (@ Citi Field in NYC- Rays are home team)
Gray is 2-2, 2.92 in his last four starts (under 5-2). New York’s first 5-inning record with him: 3-4

Snell is 3-0, 3.82 in his last five starts; under is 7-3 in his last ten. He is 0-0, 4.50 in two starts vs New York this season. Tampa Bay is 3-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-8-3

This series is in the Mets’ stadium because of the hurricane. New York won seven of last nine games; eight of their last ten road games went over. Tampa Bay lost four of last five games; over is 4-3 in their last seven games.

A’s @ Red Sox
Manaea is 2-1, 2.55 in his last three starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Oakland is 5-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-11-5

Rodriguez is 0-2, 6.04 in his last five starts; his last seven starts stayed under. Boston is 7-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-11

A’s won their last five games; over is 8-1 in their last nine games. Oakland is 1-7 in last eight road series openers. Boston won four of last five games; under is 8-4 in their last 12 games. Red Sox are 12-5 in last 17 home series openers.

Mariners @ Rangers
Gonzales is 0-1, 7.40 in five starts this year (over 4-1). Seattle is 1-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-2

Gonzalez is 0-0, 4.76 in his last three starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. Rangers’ first 5-inning record with him: 1-0

Mariners lost their last six road games; their last seven games overall stayed under. Texas lost three of last five games; over is 11-3-1 in their last 15 games.

White Sox @ Royals
Covey is making his first start since May 23; he is 0-4, 8.12 in eight starts this season (over 3-3-2). Chicago is 1-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-4-1

Gaviglio is 0-4, 5.79 in his last five starts; under is 5-1-1 in his last seven. Royals’ first 5-inning record with him: 1-0

Chicago won its last three games; over is 5-1-1 in their last seven games. Royals are 5-4 in their last nine games; over is 8-3 in their last 11 games.

Astros @ Angels
Verlander is 3-0, 1.67 in his last four starts (under 4-0). Astros’ first 5-inning record with him: 0-0-1

Richards is 0-0, 1.13 in two starts this season (total of 8 IP). He threw 57 pitches in his last start, is probably still on a pitch count here. Angels won both his starts, both on road— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-1

Astros lost its last four games, which all went over the total. Houston is 16-7 in road series openers. Angels lost three of last four games, all of which stayed under. Halos are 8-14 in home series openers.

Interleague

Padres @ Twins
Wood is 0-1, 9.53 in his last three starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. Padres are 0-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-4-1

Gibson is 3-0, 1.69 in his last four starts (under 3-1). Minnesota is 4-9 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-13-1

Padres won three of last four games; under is 5-3 in their last eight road games. San Diego is 8-14 in road series openers. Minnesota is 3-5 in its last eight games; over is 5-2 in their last seven home games. Twins are 12-11 in home series openers.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
Atl-Wsh: Teheran 13-15; Gonzalez 17-11
Mia-Phil: Peters 0-2; Pivetta 7-15
Pitt-Mil: Cole 16-13; Suter 5-5
NY-Chi: Gsellman 8-10; Quintana 6-4 (10-8 )
Cin-StL: Stephenson 5-2; Lynn 13-16
Colo-Az: Gray 10-6; Walker 14-10
LA-SF: Kershaw 20-3; Cueto

American League
Balt-Tor: Bundy 17-9; Biagini 4-10
Det-Clev: Boyd 8-13; Kluber 17-8
NY-TB: Gray 3-4 (8-8 ); Snell 8-11
A’s-Bos: Manaea 12-14; Rodriguez 11-9
Sea-Tex: Gonzales 2-3; Gonzalez 1-0 (9-13)
Chi-KC: Covey 3-5; Gaviglio 0-1 (6-5)
Hst-LAA: Verlander 1-0 (13-15); Richards 2-0

Interleague
SD-Minn: Wood 4-4; Gibson 14-11

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
Atl-Wsh: Teheran 8-28; Gonzalez 9-28
Mia-Phil: Peters 1-1; Pivetta 10-22 (4 of last 4)
Pitt-Mil: Cole 10-29; Suter 1-10
NY-Chi: Gsellman 9-18; Quintana 8-28
Cin-StL: Stephenson 5-1-1; Lynn 8-29
Colo-Az: Gray 4-16; Walker 7-24
LA-SF: Kershaw 5-23; Cueto

American League
Balt-Tor: Bundy 4-26; Biagini 6-14
Det-Clev: Boyd 5-21; Kluber 5-25
NY-TB: Gray 3-22; Snell 5-19
A’s-Bos: Manaea 9-26; Rodriguez 4-20
Sea-Tex: Gonzales 1-5; Gonzalez 7-23
Chi-KC: Covey 5-8; Gaviglio 4-12
Hst-LAA: Verlander 7-29; Richards 0-2

Interleague
SD-Minn: Wood 3-8; Gibson 8-25

Umpires

National League
Pitt-Mil: Under is 6-2 in last eight Dreckman games.
Colo-Az: Five of last six Ripperger games stayed under.
LA-SF: Six of last nine Reyburn games stayed under.

American League
Balt-Tor: Five of last six Gorman games went over.
Det-Clev: Four of last five Barry games went over.
NY-TB: Under is 12-3 in last fifteen TBarrett games.
Sea-Tex: Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Nelson games.
Chi-KC: Underdogs won six of last seven Meals games.

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 81-56 AL, favorites -$236
AL @ NL– 72-67 NL, favorites +$35
Total: 148-128 AL, favorites -$201

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 69-66-4
AL @ NL: Over 74-59-7
Total: Over 143-125-11

Armadillosports.com

MLB Betting Picks & Tips
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Atlanta at Washington (-175); Total: 8.5

So, I might be insane. I probably am. But, I cannot stop fading Gio Gonzalez. It hasn’t worked yet and maybe it isn’t going to, but the numbers are so heavily in our favor regarding this that I can’t stop and won’t stop. One of these times, I’m going to look smart. Of course, I’ve told myself that for the last 10 years. Still waiting for that time.

Gio Gonzalez has a 2.50 ERA with a 3.89 FIP and a 4.28 xFIP. He has a .248 BABIP against and an 85 percent LOB%. My guess is that he’ll get absolutely rocked by the Cubs in the NLDS and that’s where his regression will show up, a la the Texas Rangers last season, but I’m still going to play on this. As far as qualified pitchers and LOB% go, Clayton Kershaw is #1, but conventional wisdom doesn’t apply to him. Gio Gonzalez is second at 85 percent. Robbie Ray is third at 84.9 percent. Max Scherzer is fourth at 83.6 percent. Lance Lynn is luckboxing his way to fifth at 82.7 percent. Corey Kluber is sixth at 80.9 percent. What do four of those six guys have in common? They strike out a ton of batters. Gio Gonzalez does not.

If we sort by BABIP against for pitchers, we find Ariel Miranda at the top at .226, but he has a 31.8 percent GB% and has given up a ton of home runs. Lance Lynn is second at .231, which is why the market continues to fade him. Max Scherzer is third at .239. Ervin Santana is fourth at .242. Jose Urena and Jeremy Hellickson come next and then Gio Gonzalez. Gonzalez has the highest GB% of those seven pitchers. Basically, Gonzalez is getting remarkably lucky with batted ball luck and sequencing. That’s why I keep fading him, much to the detriment of my bankroll. These are the stats upon which my handicapping process is dependent.

Since the All-Star Break, Gonzalez has worked 66.1 innings with a .231 BABIP against and an 85.2 percent LOB%. He has a 1.90/3.38/4.27 pitcher slash. The Nationals aren’t even a good defensive team per defensive runs saved. They are -32 and rank 25th. UZR paints a prettier picture, where the Nationals rank 12th. So, at best, this would loosely be considered an average defensive team.

I’m going to keep doing this if it kills my bankroll, damnit.

Miami (-120) at Philadelphia; Total: 9

With Hurricane Irma now gone and cleanup underway, the Marlins head north to Philadelphia to take on the Phillies. Rookie southpaw Dillon Peters will take the mound against Nick Pivetta. Peters has been solid in his two starts and was solid in the minors for the Marlins this season. The left-hander has a 14/5 K/BB ratio over his first 12 MLB innings with just three runs allowed on nine hits. The strikeout spike at the MLB level is pretty surprising. It’s hard to get a great gauge on Peters at the MiLB level because he didn’t spend a whole lot of time at most of his stops. This season, he worked 6.2 innings in rookie ball, 10.2 innings at High-A, and 45.2 innings at Double-A. At each stop, he was effective. He’s showcased plus command at each stop and decent control.

There seems to be a fair amount to like about the diminutive lefty. Peters is just 5-foot-9, which can be a tricky arm slot for hitters to pick up. The first trip around the league should be really good for him. Regarding long-term success, I don’t really know. This is his second time facing the Phillies, so we’ll see if that lineup makes any adjustments. I’d look to play on Peters in September facing teams for the first time, but the second time around could be a different story.

On the other hand, Nick Pivetta isn’t having much of a season. His strikeout rate is impressive, but his problem through the minors was command and it remains a problem at the MLB level. Pivetta has a 6.49 ERA with a 5.00 FIP and a 4.39 xFIP. Pivetta has over a strikeout per inning in his 111 innings of work, but he has a .341 BABIP against and has allowed 22 HR with an 18 percent HR/FB%. Command means everything. Pivetta just doesn’t have much of it.

Even though Peters is facing the Phillies for the second time, the Marlins appear to have a minor edge in that department and bigger edges in other areas now that they have gotten healthier and have something closer to a regular lineup with Justin Bour back in the mix. I’ll lay the short price on the road.

Detroit at Cleveland (-420); Total: 8

Just a quick note here. The biggest favorite ever tracked is when the Dodgers were -485 against Atlanta last season. It seems unlikely that the Indians get to that point, but -435 is the second-highest. That seems attainable as the Tribe goes for win #20 in a row on Tuesday night with ace Corey Kluber on the mound.

Pittsburgh at Milwaukee (-115); Total: 8.5

Doesn’t it feel like the Pirates and Brewers have played each other about 75 times this season? They’ll play again today at Miller Park with Gerrit Cole for the Buccos and Brent Suter for the Brewers. Cole has a 3.93 ERA with a 4.08 FIP and a 3.88 xFIP on the season. He’s having a fine year and, most importantly, he has stayed healthy. Cole only worked 116 innings at the MLB level last season. This season, he has crossed 180 innings. Cole’s peripherals are all solid, minus a spike in HR/FB%, but he’s not the only one around the league that has experienced a similar increase.

Cole’s stuff is still lively, with at least six strikeouts in each of his last six outings. He hasn’t allowed a home run in his last three starts, which is a great sign, though the cooling weather conditions and the PNC Park factor are contributing factors. One thing that is a little bit notable is that Cole, who traditionally doesn’t walk batters, has walked seven over his last 14 innings. At this stage of the game, we’re looking for little outliers on guys with high workloads. Cole had injury issues last season and has managed to avoid them this season, so any sort of outlier piques my interest.

Brent Suter has been a nice piece for the Brewers. In 10 starts and eight relief outings, Suter has a 3.55 ERA with a 4.02 FIP and a 4.31 xFIP. As a starter, specifically, Suter has held the opposition to a .246/.299/.409 slash in his 52 innings of work. He has a 3.63 ERA with a 4.19 FIP and a 4.16 xFIP. That’s a bit better than league average in a season like this one. Suter hasn’t thrown in six days after making a short relief appearance on September 6, so we’ll see how sharp he is. Suter came back on September 3 and only made a three-inning start, so he won’t be working deep into this game. That creates a lot of uncertainty and a high-variance environment with relievers having to pick up the slack.

I’ll be staying off of this game as a result. If you’re dying to take a position, I’d look at Cole and the Pirates, since we have a reasonable expectation for Cole and we do not for the Brewers.

Colorado at Arizona (-130); Total: 9

Jon Gray and Taijuan Walker fire it up as the Rockies and Diamondbacks battle for NL Wild Card supremacy. As action begins on Tuesday, the Rockies trail the Diamondbacks by four games for home field advantage in the one-game playoff. The Cardinals are 3.5 in back of the Rockies and the Brewers are four out, so it would take a collapse from Colorado to fall out of that Wild Card game.

Jon Gray is a guy that I am looking to back right now. Gray has a 4.07 ERA with a 3.46 FIP and a 3.65 xFIP. Gray’s BABIP against of .340 is a little steep, even for a guy with his ground ball rate. He has allowed more hard contact this season and has gotten far fewer swings and misses, so it isn’t a big surprise, but Gray is still a guy that should have some better metrics. It’s also worth pointing out that he has been worse on the road, with a .284/.342/.448 slash against. That’s surprising given his home ballpark. A quick check shows that Gray has a .363 BABIP against on the road. He has a 24 percent K% on the road, so his stuff has been better away from home, which is another reason why I’m looking for some positive regression in that split.

Taijuan Walker is a little bit of a regression candidate in the other direction with a 3.33 ERA, a 4.01 FIP, and a 4.39 xFIP. Walker has a 10.9 percent HR/FB%, so I’m not too worried about the xFIP. What does concern me is that he has around a league average strikeout rate with a well below average swinging strike rate. The Diamondbacks are a quality defensive team, though, and have an excellent bullpen, which can help starters in terms of ERA because of runners left on base. Still, I look at Walker and see some concerning signs for his last few starts. Nothing overly significant, but enough to push me towards the Rockies in this spot. I’ll roll the dice on them as an underdog here and consider a live opportunity to buy back on Arizona and the strength of their bullpen if it’s a close game late.

Houston (-130) at Los Angeles; Total: 8

My first take on this line is that it is too low. Justin Verlander has a 3.74 ERA with a 4.04 FIP and a 4.37 xFIP on the year. He was a winner in his first start with the Astros and struck out seven with just one walk in his six innings of work. Getting away from the SS Detroit Tiger as it sinks into oblivion had to be big for Verlander. Now he’s in the midst of a home field advantage race on a playoff team. He’s also a pretty good pitcher, got a massive defensive upgrade, and has a team that will plant an analytics bug in his ear. I have to think that somebody like Verlander, who understands the value of high spin rate fastballs up in the zone would be receptive to some suggestions based on the metrics and numbers. I think this is a match made in heaven for both teams and I think it is a big deal heading into the postseason.

It was good to see Garrett Richards back on the mound. Over the last two seasons, Richards has only worked 42.2 innings at the MLB level. He’s an extremely talented guy with a sinker that is like hitting a bowling ball. Injuries have sidelined him in a big way. Richards worked 3.1 innings in his return a week ago with one run allowed on four hits. He struck out three and walked one. The concern here is that Richards will probably go four innings at most. The Astros are a pretty patient lineup, so they’ll be invested in working deep counts to get Richards out quickly. Injuries or not, the quality of stuff from whoever replaces Richards won’t be the same.

The Astros are the look today. This is a great venue for a fly ball guy like Verlander. Richards is a big question mark as he works his way back. I’m definitely interested in the favorite.

Struggling Astros face Angels
By: StatFox.com

The Angels will be looking to earn a massive victory over the Astros on Tuesday.

The Astros have dropped four games in a row heading into Tuesday’s meeting with the Angels, but this Houston team is not in danger of missing out on the postseason or anything. The Astros currently have a 13-game lead over the Angels in the AL West, but they’ll still want to perform at a high level in this series. Now is not the time to get cold for an elite team like Houston, as the Astros will want to have some momentum when they eventually do get to the playoffs. As for the Angels, the team is now only one-game back in the wild card race. The Twins currently hold the second wild card spot, but it would not be surprising at all if Los Angeles were to take it. The Angels will, however, need to find a way to take at least two from the Astros here, but that’s easier said than done. Houston has gotten the best of this head-to-head series in 2017, as the Astros are 8-5 against the Angels on the season. The starters in this Tuesday night showdown are set to be RHP Justin Verlander (11-8, 3.74 ERA, 183 K) for Houston and RHP Garrett Richards (0-0, 1.13 ERA, 7 K) for Los Angeles. Both guys are capable of shutting their opponents down, so it’ll be interesting to see what happens here.

The Astros are sending Justin Verlander to the hill on Tuesday and the superstar was excellent in his debut with the team. Verlander went on the road to Seattle on Sep. 5 and pitched six innings of one-run ball. He struck out seven batters in that game and walked only one. It would not be surprising to see him start to really do some of his best work moving forward, as he has to be excited to finally be playing some meaningful baseball again. It is, however, worth noting that Verlander allowed four earned runs and two homers in six innings of work in a loss against the Angels on May 14. He should, however, be able to regroup and pitch well here. As for Houston’s offense, 2B Jose Altuve is a player that will be looking forward to facing Richards in this one. He is 9-for-28 with a double and two RBI against the righty in his career and has been playing well as of late as well. Altuve has had two multi-hit games in the past four contests and also has two homers in the past four games.

The Angels can really use a victory on Tuesday, but it’s not going to be easy against a pitcher like Verlander. One thing the Angels have going for them is that they have some guys that have hit the righty hard in their careers. One player that has really had success against Verlander is 1B Albert Pujols. Pujols is 7-for-21 with three doubles, a homer, and two RBI against him in his career. He also happens to be scorching hot coming into this game, as he has gotten hits in nine straight games and has seen his average rise from .230 to .248 over the past 10 contests. It’d be huge if either he or OF Mike Trout can come through at the plate here. As for the Angels’ pitching, the team needs Garrett Richards to give them some solid innings on Tuesday. He has been decent since returning from injury this year, allowing just one earned run in a total of eight innings on the mound over two starts. He does, however, need to work deeper into this game.

MLB Line Drive
Covers.com

Double-Play Picks

New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays (-145, 8 )

The Yankees and Rays tangle for their second of three games being played at Citi Field in Queens (home of the Mets). The Yankees took the opener 5-1 in front of 15,000 Yankees' fan - even though the games are technically displaced home games for the Rays due to Hurricane Irma.

We're surprised Major League Baseball didn't put these games somewhere a little bit more neutral. This a definitely an advantage for the Yankees and they will continue their winning ways today.

The Yankees have now won eight of the last 11 meetings with the Rays and seven of their last nine games overall.
Sonny Gray will get the ball for the Yanks and, despite not getting the results he'd like, he has pitched really well since joining New York. In seven starts with the Yankees his team win/loss is only 3-4, but he has pitched to an ERA of 2.74 and a WHIP of 1.172.

Blake Snell gets the ball for the Rays. He's had a bit of a weird season - he's had streaks of good and bad starts. In his last outing he allowed six earned runs over four innings against the Minnesota Twins, so we can assume he going to go on a little bad run.

The Yankees offense is in another one of their hot streaks - averaging 7.5 run per game over their last eight - so they should give Snell plenty of problems today.

Pick: Yankees -145

Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels (+114, 8 )

The Angels return home after a tough nine-game road trip in which they managed to go 4-5, only to be welcomed by the division leading Astros for an important three-game series.

At 73-70, Los Angeles still trails the Twins for the second wildcard spot in the American League and with just three weeks left in the season, every game matters. Unfortunately for the Angels, they must face an Astros team that is now in a race for top spot in the American League with the Indians.

To make matters worse, they open the series against newly acquired Justin Verlander, who loves pitching in a pennant race. In Verlander’s debut for the Astros he threw six innings of one run ball, allowing six hits and striking out seven, leading his new team to a 3-1 win.

The former AL Cy Young and MVP award winner has been looking like his old self. Since the All-Star break, Verlander is 6-2 with a 2.33 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, while racking up 85 strikeouts to 17 walks.

He faces Garrett Richards, who makes just his second start since returning from a right-bicep injury. The Angels kept him on a pitch count in his first start, throwing just 52 pitches in 3.1 innings. Tonight, he shouldn’t get more than 70.

Richards also got an easy assignment in his first start back against the A’s. It won’t be so easy against the Astros, who rank first in runs, average, OPS and are third in homers.

Too much value with the ‘Stros here.

Pick: Astros -129

Yesterday's Picks: 2-0
Season To Date: 139-132-14

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians (15-4, 2.56 ERA, $102)

Who on this Cleveland team isn’t streaking right now? But it would be no surprise if this team was following the lead of its ace.

The Indians’ last loss was in a Kluber start in which he pitched 7.2 innings, allowing two runs on four hits while striking out 12. In the three starts during the streak he is 3-0 with a 1.96 ERA, a WHIP of 0.70, while racking up 27 more strikeouts to just two walks. Wow.

Kluber and Indians are on track to be the biggest moneyline favorites of the season today versus the visiting Tigers, with the line currently at Cleveland -420.

Slumping: Nick Pivetta, Philadelphia Phillies (5-10, 6.49 ERA, $-479)

It’s been a tough introduction to the big leagues for Phillies rookie Nick Pivetta, who has never really found his groove and it seems to be getting tougher on the young right-hander as the season has worn on.

Pivetta is 5-10 on the season with a 6.49 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP, but the numbers have really turned south since the start of August. In his last seven starts he is 1-4 with a 9.41 ERA and a 2.06 WHIP.

Pivetta and the Phillies are currently +100 home dogs against the visiting Marlins.

Tuesday's Top Trends

* The Cleveland Indians have won their last 19 games overall. -400 today vs Tigers.
* Under is 11-1 in Eduardo Rodriguez's last 12 starts vs. a team with a losing record. A's/Red Sox total: 9.5.
* The New York Mets are 1-10 in their last 11 games vs. a left-handed starter. +250 today at Cubs (Quintana).
* The Los Angeles Dodgers have lost 10 in a row and 16 of their last 17 overall. -275 today at Giants.

Weather To Keep An Eye On

The only rain in today's MLB forecast should be in St. Louis where the Cardinals are entertaining the Reds. There is a 50 percent chance of rain in the early evening but the wet stuff should taper off at around 8:00 pm local time.

That same game in St. Louis will also feature a 9-12 mile per hour wind blowing in from left-center field. The total is currently set at 8.5.

Wind check for Wrigley Field in Chicago is showing a 7-9 mile per hour breeze blowing in from left-center. The total for today's game between the Mets and Cubs is currently 8.5.