MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Tuesday, September 26th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Braves @ Mets
Dickey is 1-2, 7.66 in his last four starts; over is 5-1 in his last six. Atlanta is 5-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-11-5
Montero is 0-2, 8.31 in his last two starts; under is 10-4 in his last 14. Mets are 3-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-10-2
Atlanta won four of its last six games; under is 9-3 in their last 11 games. Mets are 4-11 in their last 15 games; under is 5-3 in their last eight home games.
Nationals @ Phillies
Gonzalez is 7-2, 2.51 in his last nine starts; over is 4-0-1 in his last five. Washington is 10-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 17-8-5
Thompson is 1-1, 3.80 in his last four starts (over 5-2). Phillies are 3-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-2-1
Washington won six of last eight games; under is 10-3-2 in their last 15 games. Phillies lost four of their last five games; under is 8-1-2 in their last 11.
Reds @ Brewers
McGuire is making his first MLB start; he was 9-9, 2.79 in 27 AA starts this year He’s thrown 5.2 scoreless innings in four relief stints in the majors this season.
Davies is 1-2, 4.18 in his last four starts; under is 9-3-1 in his last 13. Milwaukee is 8-8 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-11-6
Reds lost their last six games; under is 8-3 in their last 11 games. Cincy is 5-13 in last 18 road series openers. Milwaukee lost three of last four games (under 3-0-1); they’re 9-6 in last 15 home series openers. Brewers are 1.5 games out in the Wild Card race.
Cubs @ Cardinals
Arrieta is 4-1, 2.39 in his last seven starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Cubs are 10-9 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 16-8-4
Martinez is 2-1, 4.39 in his last four starts; over is 11-5 in his last 16 starts. St Louis is 9-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 16-12-3
Cubs won 11 of last 13 games; under is 6-2–1 in their last nine. St Louis won five of last seven home games; under is 6-2 in their last eight.
Marlins @ Rockies
Urena is 2-0, 2.08 in his last four starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. Miami is 10-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-7-5
Anderson is 1-2, 6.16 in his last four starts (over 3-1). Colorado is 3-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-7
Marlins won six of last nine games; 10 of their last 12 road games went over. Colorado lost six of its last eight games; under is 9-2 in their last 11 games. Rockies have 1.5-game lead in race for the last Wild Card spot.
Giants @ Diamondbacks
Moore is 2-2, 4.50 in his last four starts; under is 5-3-1 in his last nine. Giants are 3-11 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-19-6
Ray is 5-0, 2.70 in his last six starts; under is 5-3 in his last eight. Arizona is 7-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-6-8
Giants won five of their last seven games; under is 9-2 in their last 11 games. Arizona lost five of last eight games; over is 4-1 in their last five games.
Padres @ Dodgers
Lamet is 0-3, 3.71 in his last six starts (under 5-1). San Diego is 4-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-8-2
Wood is 1-0, 1.50 in his last two starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Dodgers are 8-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-9-2
San Diego won five of its last eight games (under 8-4). Dodgers are 4-1 in their last five games; under is 8-2-3 in their last 13.
American League
Rays @ New York
Snell is 4-0, 2.95 in his last seven starts; under is 10-5 in his last 15. Rays are 5-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-8-4
Severino is 2-0, 2.63 in his last four starts; over is 10-1 in his last 11 starts. NY is 10-5 in his home starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 17-10-3
Tampa Bay is 4-6 in its last ten games; their last three games went over. Rays are 3-6 in last nine road series openers. New York won nine of last 12 games; under is 4-3-1 in their last eight. NY is 11-3 in last 13 home series openers.
Twins @ Indians
Colon is 0-4, 8.24 in his last four starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. Minnesota is 2-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-6-1
Tomlin is 3-0, 2.70 in his last five starts; under is 5-3 in his last eight. Cleveland is 7-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-10-6
Twins won their last four games; over is 4-0-1 in their last five games. Minnesota is 5-3 in last eight road series openers. Cleveland is 29-2 in its last 31 games; under is 10-3 in their last 13 home games. Indians are 10-0 in last ten home series openers.
Blue Jays @ Red Sox
Happ is 3-1, 3.28 in his last four starts; under is 7-3 in his last ten. Toronto is 5-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-13-1
Sale is 2-0, 1.83 in his last three starts; his last four starts went over. Boston is 9-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-8-8
Toronto lost four of last seven road games; under is 9-4-1 in their last 14 games. Boston won nine of last 11 games; under is 6-3 in their last nine.
Astros @ Rangers
Keuchel is 1-1, 2.25 in his last two starts; over is 4-2 in his last six starts. Houston is 8-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-7-2
Hamels is 2-1, 2.53 in his last three starts (under 3-0). Rangers are 7-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 17-3-2
Houston won nine of its last 11 games; under is 6-2 in their last eight. Texas lost its last four games; under is 7-2 in their last nine.
Angels @ White Sox
Bridwell is 1-1, 3.12 in his last three starts; under is 11-3 in his last 14 starts. Angels are 8-0 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-5-3
Fulmer is 1-1, 5.14 in four starts this year (under 2-1-1). Chicago split his two home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-1-1
Angels lost seven of their last eight games; seven of their last eight road games stayed under. Chicago won four of last five games; over is 5-2-1 in their last eight home games.
Tigers @ Royals
Sanchez is 0-4, 8.58 in his last seven starts (over 5-2). Detroit is 2-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-7-2
Vargas is 3-0, 2.20 in his last three starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Royals are 9-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-12-3
Detroit lost its last seven games; over is 8-2-1 in their last 11. Tigers are 6-11 in last 17 road series openers. Royals are 4-8 in their last 12 games; under is 8-5 in their last 13. KC is 1-5 in last six home series openers.
Mariners @ A’s
Paxton is 0-2, 6.35 in his last three starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight. Seattle is 4-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-7-4
Mengden is 2-0, 0.00 (16 IP) in his last two starts (under 3-2). A’s won both his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-2-1
Seattle lost eight of its last ten games; under is 14-6 in their last 20. Oakland is 14-4 in its last 18 games; over is 9-4 in their last 13 home games.
Interleague
Orioles @ Pirates
Gausman is 2-1, 1.71 in his last five starts; under is 9-2 in his last 11 starts. Baltimore is 7-8 in his road starts— their 1st 5-inning record with him: 15-15-2
Williams is 1-3, 2.91 in his last four starts; Pirates scored five runs in the four games. Under is 14-2 in his last 16 starts. Bucs are 5-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-12-3
Orioles lost seven of last ten games; over is 8-3 in their last 11. Baltimore is 6-11 in last 17 road series openers. Pittsburgh won three of last four games; under is 16-5 in their last 21 games. Pirates are 1-5 in last six home series openers.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Wsh-Phil: Gonzalez 18-12; Thompson 4-3
Atl-NY: Dickey 16-14; Montero 7-10
Cin-Mil: McGuire 0-0; Davies 19-13
Chi-StL: Arrieta 16-13; Martinez 16-15
Mia-Colo: Urena 17-9; Anderson 6-8
SF-Az: Moore 10-20; Ray 18-8
SD-LA: Lamet 9-11; Wood 17-7
American League
TB-NY: Snell 10-11; Severino 19-11
Min-Clev: Colon 5-8; Tomlin 13-12
Tor-Bos: Happ 10-14; Sale 22-9
Hst-Tex: Keuchel 15-7; Hamels 13-9
LA-Chi: Bridwell 15-3; Fulmer 2-2
Det-KC: Sanchez 7-8; Vargas 19-11
Sea-A’s: Paxton 13-9; Mengden 4-1
Interleague
Balt-Pitt: Gausman 16-16; Williams 10-14
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning
National League
Wsh-Phil: Gonzalez 11-30; Thompson 2-7
Atl-NY: Dickey 7-30; Montero 4-17
Cin-Mil: McGuire 0-0; Davies 9-32
Chi-StL: Arrieta 8-29; Martinez 11-31
Mia-Colo: Urena 4-26; Anderson 1-14
SF-Az: Moore 10-30; Ray 9-26
SD-LA: Lamet 6-20; Wood 4-24
American League
TB-NY: Snell 6-21; Severino 6-30
Min-Clev: Colon 1-13; Tomlin 7-25
Tor-Bos: Happ 4-24; Sale 3-31
Hst-Tex: Keuchel 5-22; Hamels 9-22
LA-Chi: Bridwell 2-18; Fulmer 0-3
Det-KC: Sanchez 3-15; Vargas 7-30
Sea-A’s: Paxton 3-22; Mengden 0-5
Interleague
Balt-Pitt: Gausman 10-32; Williams 7-24
Umpires
National League
Atl-NY: Under is 5-2 in last seven West games.
Wsh-Phil: Over is 3-1-1 in last five Ortiz games.
Chi-StL: Under is 6-2 in last eight Hoberg games.
Mia-Colo: Home team is 16-4 in last 20 Iassogna games.
SF-Az: Over is 7-3-1 in last eleven Nelson games.
SD-LA: Under is 8-4 in last 12 Timmons games.
American League
Tor-Bos: Four of last five Rackley games stayed under.
Hst-Tex: Under is 8-2-1 in last eleven Torres games.
LA-Chi: Over is 6-2-2 in last ten Winters games.
Sea-A’s: Under is 13-4 in last 17 TBarrett games.
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 84-57 AL, favorites -$280
AL @ NL– 73-72 NL, favorites +$416
Total: 156-130 AL, favorites +$136
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 71-68-4
AL @ NL: Over 74-64-8
Total: Over 145-132-12
Armadillosports.com
Cubs look to clinch playoff spot
By: StatFox.com
The Cubs can clinch the NL Central with a victory over the Cardinals on Tuesday.
Chicago has had an up-and-down season, but that will all be forgotten if the team can punch a ticket to the postseason here. The Cubs still have one of the most dangerous lineups in the world and they’ll like their chances as much as anyone once the playoffs begin. As for the Cardinals, it’s no longer looking like they’ll have much of a chance to extend their season. St. Louis really needed to sweep Chicago in this series in order to even have a shot, but the team was demolished in the series opener on Monday. The Cardinals will still be doing everything they can to win this one, but one could imagine that this team is rather demoralized. The starters in this Tuesday night meeting are going to be RHP Jake Arrieta (14-9, 3.43 ERA, 159 K) and RHP Carlos Martinez (12-11, 3.63 ERA, 211 K). Both guys are capable of shutting down their opponents, so this could be a nice pitcher’s duel to watch. It’s worth noting that the Cubs are 95-45 against the money line over the past three seasons versus teams that average 0.5 or fewer stolen bases per game in the second half of the season.
Jake Arrieta has been pitching incredibly over the past few months, as the righty has allowed two or fewer earned runs in nine of his past 10 starts. Arrieta has hit his lumps this season, but he is hot at the right time. The Cubs will need him to perform like the ace he once was in the postseason, so it’s good to have him confident at this point in the season. As for this meeting with St. Louis, you can count on him to be rock solid on Tuesday. Arrieta is 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA in three starts against the Cardinals this season, but you can look for him to be even better here. On offense, the one guy to look out for in this Chicago lineup is 1B Anthony Rizzo. Rizzo has been great against Martinez in his career, going 9-for-34 with a double, a triple, three homers and eight RBI against the righty. He could very well go yard here as well. OF Jason Heyward could also come through for the Cubs in this one. Heyward is 8-for-26 with a double and two RBI against Martinez. It would really help Chicago if he were to produce in this one.
Carlos Martinez has really developed into an excellent pitcher for the Cardinals, but the righty has not been his best lately. Over his past two starts, Martinez pitched just 11.2 innings and gave up a total of 11 earned runs. The team will need him to settle in here and give them a quality start at the very least. It won’t help his confidence that his most recent start against the Cubs was two starts ago, when he allowed seven earned runs in 5.1 innings of work. Martinez must shake that game and find a way to come through at home. As for the Cardinals’ offense, OF Randal Grichuk is a guy that St. Louis can expect to perform at a high level here. Grichuk has been incredible against Arrieta in his career, going 7-for-20 with three doubles, one triple, two homers and four RBI against the righty. It would not be surprising if he were to go yard here. OF Dexter Fowler could also provide a spark against his former team, as he is 4-for-6 with a double and an RBI against Arrieta lifetime.
MLB Line Drive
Covers.com
Double-Play Picks
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals (-115, 8 )
The Cubs and Cardinals get together for Game 2 of their three-game series at Busch Stadium on Tuesday night. Last night the Cubbies had fireworks launched for road home runs in their rival's building, won over rival fans by buying them nachos, and eliminated the Cards from NL Central contention with a convincing 10-2 victory.
As if that wasn't bad enough for the Cardinals and their fans, tonight the Cubs will get their chance to pop champagne bottles at Busch...and maybe chug some Budweisers in the locker room until the sun comes up tomorrow morning.
Jake Arrieta will get the ball for the Cubbies in his second start back from his hamstring injury. Arrieta worked five innings and threw 71 pitches against the Brewers, allowing only one run. Joe Madden will likely stretch him to 80-90 pitches today and then put him away for the playoffs. Over Jake's last eight starts he owns a 1.81 ERA and a WHIP of only 1.119.
Carlos Martinez gets the ball for the Cardinals. The purple haired "ace" of the St. Louis pitching staff has an ERA of 8.49 and a WHIP of 1.6286 over his last two starts. In his last outing against the Cubs he allowed seven earned runs over 5.1 innings of work in an eventual 8-2 loss.
The Cubbies get the job done tonight and stomp on the grave of their rivals - they will however be hungover fade-bait tomorrow.
Pick: Cubs -105
San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks (-210, 9)
The Diamondbacks will host at least one game this October, but they have bigger plans in mind for this postseason and will be using this last week to position themselves in the best place possible for their one-game playoff. That starts Tuesday night when they continue their three-game set with the Giants in Arizona.
One thing the Diamondbacks will do, is get their best pitchers fully rested and healthy before the Wildcard game, as it is an all-hands-on-deck scenario. Expect Tuesday night to be the last time you see starter Robbie Ray on the mound in the regular season.
The Arizona lefty has had an outstanding season, going 14-5 with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP and despite the fact the fact he is coming off a rough outing, he has been mostly brilliant.
Before his last start (which the D-backs won anyway), Ray had won five straight while pitching to a 1.39 ERA, a 0.77 WHIP and racking up 55 strikeouts and walking just six.
Ray gets to face a Giants lineup that ranks dead last in OPS and home runs, and 29th in runs per game.
Meanwhile San Francisco counters with a southpaw of their own in Matt Moore. Moore’s first full season by The Bay has not gone smoothly. He 6-14, with a 5.20 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP this season and it has been even tougher for him away from AT&T Park. On the road Moore is 2-5 with a 6.51 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP.
Oh, and Moore faces a D-backs lineup that usually dominates at home, ranking second in runs and OPS at home this season.
Ray and the Diamondbacks bounce back in a big way tonight.
Pick: Diamondbacks -1.5 (-108)
Yesterday's Picks: 0-2
Season To Date: 156-142-15
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Parker Bridwell, Los Angeles Angels (8-3, 3.86 ERA, $1537)
Parker Bridwell takes the mound for the Angels today in Chicago against the White Sox. Bridwell is the runaway leader in our Starter Money standings for the season at $1537 and owns a team win/loss record of 15-3.
Bridwell also owns a perfect 8-0 team win/loss record on the road for his career.
Bridwell and the Angels put perfection on the line tonight at Guaranteed Rate Field as -165 favorites.
Slumping: Bartolo Colon, Minnesota Twins (6-14, 6.63 ERA, $-111)
We could be reaching the end of the road for "Big Sexy". The Twins may possibly give him a courtesy wave on Sunday, but other than that today may be the last real start for Bartolo Colon.
It's been a terrible season for Colon and over his last three starts he owns an ERA of 13.09 and a WHIP of 1.909. All three of those starts turned out to be losses.
"Big Sexy" and the Twins are +180 underdogs on the road against the red-hot Indians this evening.
Tuesday's Top Trends
* Under is 14-2 in Trevor Williams' last 16 starts overall. Orioles/Pirates Total: 8.5.
* The Cleveland Indians are 29-2 in their last 31 games overall. -200 today vs. Twins.
* The Texas Rangers are 26-6 in Cole Hamels' last 32 home starts. +120 today vs. Astros.
* The Los Angeles Angels are 8-0 in Parker Bridwell's eight career road starts. -165 today @ White Sox.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
According to the forecast, there shouldn’t be any precipitation that will interrupt any of today's games on the MLB schedule. It feels like we haven't had any baseball rain in weeks. Did we just jinx the weather?
The winds are also very light across the league today. No games on the schedule will feature double-digit wind speeds.
Ump Of The Day
Dan Iassogna will be calling balls and strikes tonight at Coors Field in Denver for the game between the Rockies and the Marlins. Iassogna is the No. 4 homer umpire in baseball this season at 19-7. A $100 wager on the home team in all of his games would tally up to $1037 thus far.
Over the last two seasons home teams own a 64.9 winning percentage in his games (37-20) and the Marlins are only 6-24 in their last 30 contests with Iassogna in pads.
The Rockies are solid home favorites at -155 tonight.