MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, September 30

Wild Card Preview
VegasInsider.com

Athletics at Royals

Oakland: 88-74 overall, 40-41 on road
Kansas City: 89-73 overall, 43-29 at home

Probable Pitchers:
OAK: Lester (16-11, 2.46 ERA)
KC: Shields (15-8, 3.21 ERA)

Season series: The Royals dominated the A’s by winning five of seven meetings, including three of four at Kauffman Stadium in mid-August. However, Oakland’s two wins came with Jon Lester on the mound, as the southpaw allowed six earned runs in those two starts, but the A’s outscored the Royals, 19-6 in those two victories. In the five losses, Oakland tallied just seven runs. James Shields beat the A’s twice, which included a magnificent eight-inning performance in a 4-2 victory at Oakland as a +150 underdog.

Season recap: Oakland was 57-33 on July 8, but stumbled to a 31-41 finish, which included a 10-23 stretch from mid-August through mid-September. Kansas City had a roller coaster season en route to its first playoff appearance since winning the World Series way back in 1985. The Royals were sitting below the .500 mark in the first week of June at 29-32, but pulled off a 10-game winning streak, which included a six straight road victories. Kansas City caught fire in August by winning 17 of its first 21 games, while coming down to the final day of the season with a shot to win the AL Central title.

Up next: The winner of this series will face the Angels in the American League Divisional Series. Looking ahead, the Royals split six meetings with the Halos this season as each team went 2-1 at home. Oakland and Los Angeles were pretty even as well, as the Angels went 10-9 in 19 matchups with the A’s, while L.A. won seven of the final eight meetings.

AL Wild Card Odds and Pick
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com

The Kansas City Royals make their first playoff appearance since winning the World Series in 1985 and welcome the Oakland Athletics, a team many once believed to be the best in baseball, in the AL wild-card game (Tuesday, 8:07 p.m. ET, TBS). The A’s made it interesting down the stretch by losing 20 of their last 30 games, but managed to survive. They bring their big hired gun – Jon Lester – to the match.

We couldn’t have asked for a better pitching matchup to kick off the playoffs. Anaheim awaits, so let’s play ball.

Oakland A’s (88-74) at Kansas City Royals (89-73)
Starters: John Lester (16-11, 2.46 ERA) vs. James Shields (14-8, 3.21 ERA)
Line: Royals -110, total: 6.5 (UNDER -115)

Here are a few notes on the game, as well as our selection:

Season series: Royals lead 5-2 (3-1 at KC). ...A‘s averaged 1.7 runs per game in the five losses, and 9.5 runs in the two wins. Both A’s win came behind Joe Lester.

Series trend: The UNDER is 12-4-1 in their last 17 meetings.

A’s total trend: A’s have stayed UNDER the total in seven of their past eight road games.

2014 return on investment: A’s -16.14 units, Royals +3.17 units (+21.8 units on run-line).

How did Shields fare against the A‘s in 2014? Shields was fortunate to face the A’s in the second half of the season, when the A’s weren’t the best team in baseball. In his first chance, Aug. 4 at Oakland, he beat Scott Kazmir, 4-2. On Aug. 14 at Kansas City, he beat Jeff Samardzija, 7-3.
“Big Game” James hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2008 World Series and lost his last two postseason starts, in 2010 and 2011 with Tampa Bay.

How did Lester fare against the Royals in 2014? He was a perfect 3-0 with a 2.61 ERA in three starts, including an 11-3 road win over Jeremy Guthrie on Aug 12. He also beat them, 8-3, on Aug. 2 at Oakland. His other win against K.C. came when he was pitching for Boston, 6-0 at Fenway Park on July 20.

He gave up five runs (three earned) in his most recent start, a 5-4 loss to the Angels last Wednesday, but had allowed only three runs combined in his three starts prior -- all wins. All-time, Lester is 9-3 with a 1.84 ERA against the Royals. In 13 postseason outings, Lester is 6-4 with a 2.11 ERA.

Royals ready to keep rolling? Kansas City won six of its last eight games to close the season and went OVER the total in five of their last six road games, against the White Sox and Indians.

Oakland power outage: We could go on and on about the A's decline since the Lester trade, but why beat a dead horse. They are what they are now. However, it’s hard to ignore that prior to the All-Star break, the A’s were mashing the ball with 98 homers (seventh best in the majors) and a .251 average. After the break, they hit 48 homers (20th best) and just .233.

Who has the better bullpen? The Oakland pen has a better ERA (2.91) than the Royals’ 3.30 mark, but Kansas City converted an AL-best 82 percent of save opportunities. Only the Padres (84 percent) were better. It’s pretty much lights out with Wade Davis (1.00 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 13.6 K/9) setting up Greg Holland (1.44 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 12.99 K/9) for the Royals. If the A’s don’t get the lead by the seventh inning you might want to sell your Oakland game and future wagers to anyone willing to buy it. The Athletics’ pen has blown 21 saves this season and has the third worst conversion rate (60 percent).

Situational trends: When the A’s have been a road underdog of even money to +125 this season, they have gone 2-11. When they’ve been on the road when the total is 7 of less, they are 4-15.

Conversely, the Royals have thrived at home under those same conditions, going 19-7 as a short favorite and 13-8 when 7 or lower is the posted total.

Lester is the monkey wrench in all this. He was -138 when beating Guthrie in K.C., and -170 and -155 in his home wins.

The Linemakers’ lean: We’re going to side with the home team here, largely because of the A’s hitting woes. Lester is tough to go against, and there is actually value on him in this spot, but he’s not the only consideration. Shields should be the favorite – he has a better supporting cast at this juncture. This has the look of a 1-1 game going into the eighth and the Oakland bullpen giving in first. We’ll take the Royals and UNDER.

American League Wild Card Preview
Atssportsline.com

The summer is over and now it's officially fall in the sports world as the baseball playoffs are here. There are four wild card teams that will face off on Tuesday and Wednesday. ATSWins.com will preview both matchups along with the two series that begin on Thursday and Friday. Here is a preview of the American League wild card matchup.

World Series Odds

Oakland 11-1
Kansas City 16-1

Opening and Current Odds: Kansas City opened as a -105-money line favorite and moved to -110. The total opened at 6.5 and remained there.

Betting Trends

Oakland
8-20 last 28 following a win.
4-10 last 14 playoff games.
1-5 last 6 vs. American League Central.
4-0 in Lester's four starts vs. AL Central.

Kansas City
13-5 last 18 during game 1 of a series.
3-8 last 11 following a win.
28-10 in Shields last 38 starts with four days rest.
4-12-1 last 17 matchups on the under bet in thsi series.

Last game: (8/14/14): Kansas City (-108) over Oakland, 7-3.

Pitching matchup: (LHP) Jon Lester (16-11, 2.46 ERA) vs. (RHP) James Shields (14-8, 3.21 ERA)

Outlook

The winner of this series will take on the Los Angeles Angels. Kansas City has won five of seven against Oakland this season. The Athletics have completely fallen apart after they acquired Jon Lester from Boston at the trade deadline. They had to throw in outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, and their offense hasn't been the same. The Athletics are hitting just .241 and just .236 against left-handers. But that won't matter against RHP James Shields. The Royals hit .263 agaisnt right handers and average 3.98 runs per game against southpaws. The Athletics send Lester to the mound, who has plenty of playoff experience.

The Royals have hit .248 against Lester, while the Athletics have hit just .217 against Shields. Lester has allowed just six runs in three starts against the Royals with 20 strikeouts. Shields has allowed five runs in 14 innigns in two starts against Oakland and has won both games.

Kansas City ranks in the top of the league in both batting average and runs scored. They rank first in steals at 153, but 30th in home runs with only 95, so they need to manufacture runs. Lorenzo Cain leads the team with a .301 batting average to go along with 28 steals and 53 RBIs. Alex Gordon is the team's best overall hitter with 19 home runs, 74 RBIs, 12 steals and a .266 batting average.

Oakland is led by Josh Donaldson, who owns a .255 batting average with 29 home runs and 98 RBI. But they rank just 21st in batting average and they are fourth in the Majors in runs per game with 4.50. They do have 146 home runs (13th). This is not a good defensive team as they rank 31st in baseball with 111 errors, but their pitching staff ranks third in ERA at 3.22 and first in WHIP (1.14). This is a lineup that offers some power in Donaldson, Brandon Moss (25 home runs), Adam Dunn and Josh Reddick (12 homers, 54 RBIs).

A's @ Royals -- AL Wild Card

Oakland is 7-4 in Lester starts (3-1, 2.57 in last four). Lester is 3-0, 2.61 against the Royals this year and is 6-4, 2.11 in 11 postseason starts.

Shields is 2-1, 2.14 in his last six starts, 1-0, 3.21 in two starts vs Oakland. He is 2-4, 4.98 in six postseason starts (with Tampa Bay).

A's played lousy from August 1 on, going 22-33 since acquiring Lester, but they played in playoffs last two years, are used to games like this.

Royals haven't been in playoffs since 1985, though Shields was in playoffs for Rays in three different seasons. Kansas City won six of its last eight games.

Armadillosports.com

American League Wild Card: A's at Royals
By Covers.com

Oakland A's at Kansas City Royals (-103, 6.5)

The Kansas City Royals are playing a postseason game for the first time in 29 years when they host the Oakland Athletics in Tuesday’s American League wild-card game. The Royals have been perennial pushovers since winning the 1985 World Series before recently emerging behind a rock-solid bullpen. Oakland, which went 10-20 to finish this season, is in the postseason for the third straight season and lost to the Detroit Tigers in the AL Division Series each of the last two years.

Jon Lester, who was acquired from the Boston Red Sox specifically for this situation, will be on the mound for the Athletics. James Shields takes the ball for Kansas City and will get the opportunity to back up his nickname of “Big Game James.” Closer Greg Holland (46 saves, 1.44 ERA) and setup man Wade Davis (9-2, 1.00) headline the Royals’ bullpen, but Oakland is strong in the back end as well, led by closer Sean Doolittle (22 saves, 89 strikeouts against just eight walks).

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Royals -110, but has adjusted to -103. The total has held at 6.5

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s under partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from right field to left field at 6 mph.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: A's (-177), Royals (-173)

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Oakland's .433 win percentage since the All Star Break is the worst for a playoff team in the past 80 years. However, it is interesting to note that the third worse 2nd Half record in recent history came in 2006 by the Cardinals and they went on to win the World Series that year. Oakland's recent struggles largely coincide to trading away their cleanup hitter, Yoenis Cespedes, as Oakland's offense has since average -1.5 runs less per game." Covers Expert Steve Merril.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Athletics LH Jon Lester (16-11, 2.46 ERA) vs. Royals RH James Shields (14-8, 3.21)

Lester went 2-0 with a 0.59 ERA in last season’s World Series for Boston and has gone 6-4 with a 2.35 ERA in 11 starts since Oakland acquired him from the Red Sox. He was 3-0 with a 2.61 ERA against the Royals this season – two of the wins came with Oakland – and has career marks of 9-3 and 1.84 in 13 career starts against Kansas City. Lester went 3-2 with a 2.00 ERA in five September starts and his postseason numbers line up this way: 6-4 and 2.11 in 13 career appearances (11 starts).

Shields was 1-0 with a 3.21 ERA in two starts against Oakland this season and is 6-4 with a 3.82 ERA in 15 career outings against the Athletics. He went 2-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in five September starts. Shields went 2-4 with a 4.98 ERA in six postseason starts with the Tampa Bay Rays before being dealt to the Royals.

TRENDS:

* Under is 12-4-1 in the last 17 meetings.
* Athletics are 1-4 in the last five meetings.
* Athletics are 4-0 in Lesters last four starts vs. American League Central.
* Under is 4-1-1 in Shields' last six starts overall.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 54 percent of wagers on Covers Consensus are backing the Royals.

MLB : Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Oakland A's at Kansas City Royals

The 2014 MLB playoffs begin Tuesday night, when the A's visit Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Toeing the rubber for A's will be lefty Jon Lester bringing a 16-11 record, 2.46 ERA to the mound including 6-4 a mark, 2.35 ERA in 11 starts since he arrived in the Bay Area. Lester trades pitches with Royals right-hander James Shields who heads to the hill with a 14-8 record, 3.21 ERA. The clubs met seven times this season with Royals winning five of the seven matchups. Interesting to note, the two games the A's won in the series, Lester was on the mound giving the hurler a perfect 3-0 record this season against K.C. tossing for both A's and Red Sox. On the other side, Royals won both against Oakland that Shields' started, so something has to give. Oddsmakers have opened Royals as -$1.10 home favorite with the total set at 6.5 runs.

Athletics visit Royals
By Sportsbook.ag

OAKLAND ATHLETICS (88-75) at KANSAS CITY ROYALS (89-73)

Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Kansas City -110, Oakland +100, Total: 6.5

The Athletics visit the Royals in Tuesday's one-game-playoff AL Wild Card Game with the winner earning the right to face the Angels in the ALDS. Kansas City is making its first postseason appearance since 1985.

Oakland was baseball’s most consistent and hottest team for much of the season, but its trade of OF Yoenis Cespedes for starter Jon Lester was seemingly one step too far as it dropped quickly in the standings and nearly missed the playoffs. The A's were 10-16 over the final month of the season as they hit the fourth-fewest homers in September (12). OF Josh Reddick (.264 BA) is scorching hot entering the postseason though, with multi-hit games in six of his past eight contests in which he is 14-for-29 (.483) with two doubles, a home run, 8 RBI and four runs.

The Royals made a strong push at winning the AL Central, but could not hold off the Tigers despite going 6-2 over the final part of the year. On the season, they were a tough matchup for pitchers, hitting .263 as a team (4th in the league) but failing to hit many homers with just 95; the fewest in baseball. SS Alcides Escobar (.285 BA) has been huge in the leadoff spot lately, bringing a nine-game hitting streak into the playoffs in which he is 17-for-40 (.425) with three doubles and 3 RBI. This game will prove if Oakland was smart to trade one of its top young offensive players as LHP Jon Lester (16-11, 2.46 ERA) takes the mound for the visiting Athletics and will square off against RHP James Shields (14-8, 3.21 ERA) of the host Royals.

Oakland must certainly be dismayed that it fell so hard to finish the season, and much of its issues were on the road, as the A's posted a sub-.500 record (40-41) away from home, but Kansas City is a pedestrian 42-39 (.519) in front of its fans. These two clubs have actually split their 22 games (11-11) over the past three seasons while the Royals hold an 8-5 edge when playing at home. In 2014, Kansas City was victorious in 5-of-7 games against Oakland, and took 3-of-4 at home in their most recent meeting where they outscored the Athletics 16-5 in the three wins. Both teams come into this game with a clean bill of health on the offensive side of the ball.

Jon Lester has been a stud over the past seven years with 15 or more wins and a sub-3.85 ERA in six of the seasons. His 2014 campaign was quite possibly his greatest, as he had a career-best ERA (2.46) while striking out at least one batter per inning for the first time since 2010. The lefty also had the best control (2.0 BB/9) in his eight-year career. He actually improved after his move to Oakland and went 6-4 with a 2.35 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, while allowing seven homers in 76.2 frames (0.66 HR/9). Lester has turned in a quality start in each of his past 10 outings, including one against the Royals in which he gave up three runs on six hits and two walks over six innings while striking out nine in a winning effort. Overall in his career against them he has been tremendous, going 9-3 with a 1.84 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, and has allowed a meager one homer in 88 innings.

Leadoff hitter SS Alcides Escobar (5-for-17, 2 doubles, 2 RBI) and OF Norichika Aoki (4-for-9, 2 RBI) have been solid against Lester in their careers while DH Billy Butler (4-for-28, 11 K's) and OF Alex Gordon (4-for-25, 10 K's) have been horrible in the matchup. Oakland’s bullpen has been outstanding this season with a 26-23 record, 2.91 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, but going a woeful 31-for-52 (60%) in save opportunities. Closer Sean Doolittle (2.73 ERA, 22 saves) has blown four saves this year while recording an impressive strikeout rate (12.8 K/9) and walking a mere 1.2 batters per nine innings.

This is the type of game that the Royals acquired James Shields for, as he is coming off his eighth consecutive season of 11 or more wins and 200 plus innings, and he has an ERA of 3.85 or better in six of the past eight years. While his strikeout rate has declined to 7.1 K/9 over the past three seasons, Shields has been able to improve his control (1.7 BB/9), and has kept the ball on the ground with 45.2% of balls put in play being grounders. Shields has a quality start in nine of his past 10 outings, while his team is 7-3 in that time. Against the Athletics in his career, the righty is 6-4 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, and was 1-0 with a 3.21 ERA over two starts this year while striking out a mere seven batters over 14 frames.

OF Josh Reddick has owned the veteran in his career, going 7-for-22 (.318) with five extra-base hits (3 HR) and 5 RBI. Meanwhile, DH Adam Dunn (7-for-35, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 16 K's), OF Coco Crisp (3-for-24, 5 K's), SS Jed Lowrie (3-for-16, 4 K's) and 1B Brandon Moss (3-for-14, 5 K's) have not seen the ball well out of Shields’ hands. The relievers for Kansas City have combined to go 28-18 (.609) this season with a strong 3.30 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, and have successfully converted 53-of-65 (82%) save opportunities. Greg Holland (1.44 ERA, 46 saves) has become one of the top closers in baseball while striking out a ton of batters (13.0 K/9) and has a .168 BAA.

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