MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, September 5th, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Phillies @ Mets
Lively is 1-1, 5.29 in his last three starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Phillies are 2-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-8-1

deGrom is 1-3, 4.94 in his last four starts; over is 3-1-1 n his last five. Mets are 8-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 16-10-1

Phillies won three of last five games; under is 4-2 in their last six road games. Mets are 6-16 in their last 22 games; over is 7-2-1 in their last ten games.

Brewers @ Reds
Davies is 3-1, 1.69 in his last four starts; under is 7-1-1 in his last nine. He is 1-0, 2.70 in two starts against the Reds this season. Brewers are 10-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 16-8-5

Stephenson is 3-0, 3.24 in his last three starts (under 3-2-1). Reds are 2-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-1-1

Milwaukee won six of last nine games; under is 12-1-2 in their last 15 road games. Reds are 6-8 in last 14 games; under is 4-1-1 in their last six home games.

Giants @ Rockies
Blach is 0-4, 7.77 in his last four starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. He is 1-0, 4.15 in two starts vs Colorado this season. Giants are 3-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-11-1

Hoffman is 0-4, 8.29 in his last six starts; under is 3-1 in his last four starts. Colorado is 4-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-8-1

Giants lost nine of last 11 games; under is 11-4 in their last 15 games. Colorado lost six of last eight games; under is 8-1 in their last nine games.

Cubs @ Pirates
Hendricks is 2-0, 2.45 in his last four starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight. He is 1-1, 2.45 against the Pirates this year. Cubs are 4-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-6-3

Brault is making his first ’17 start; he was 0-3, 4.86 in seven MLB starts LY. Brault is 0-0, 5.93 in six relief stints this year (13.2 IP), was 10-5, 1.94 in 20 AAA starts this season.

Cubs won six of last eight games (under 5-3). Pittsburgh lost four of last seven games; under is 4-2 in their last six home games.

Cardinals @ Padres
Wacha is 1-3, 7.36 in his last four starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. St Louis is 4-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-10-4

Wood is 1-0, 3.38 in his last four starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. San Diego is 4-0 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-3-1

Cardinals won four of last five games; over is 6-4 in their last ten games. San Diego won five of last seven games; over is 4-3 in their last seven games.

Nationals @ Marlins
Strasburg is 2-1, 0.90 in his last five starts (under 4-1). He is 2-0, 1.13 vs Miami this season. Washington is 10-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-9-1

Despaigne is 0-2, 7.36 in three starts this year (under 2-1). Miami split his two home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-2-1

Nationals lost three of last five games; under is 6-1-2 in their last nine road games. Miami lost seven of last eight games; under is 5-1-1 in their last seven home games.

Diamondbacks @ Dodgers
Greinke is 3-1, 3.47 in his last four starts; under is 4-0-1 in his last five. He is 1-2, 4.58 against the Dodgers this season. Arizona is 5-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 17-6-4

Ryu is 2-1, 3.33 in his last five starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. Dodgers are 7-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-10-3

Arizona won its last 11 games; under is 4-2 in their last six road games. Dodgers lost nine of last ten games; over is 6-1-1 in their last eight games.

American League

Royals @ Tigers
Vargas is 1-5, 7.18 in his last six starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight. Royals are 8-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-11-2

Sanchez is 0-2, 13.50 in his last three starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Detroit is 3-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-5-1

Royals lost 8 of last 11 games; over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games. Detroit lost six of last seven games; under is 8-3 in his last 11 games.

New York @ Baltimore
Sabathia is 2-0, 1.89 in his last three starts; under is 14-2 in his last 16 starts. He is 0-0, 7.71 in two starts vs Baltimore this season. New York is 8-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-10-1

Hellickson is 1-3, 8.56 in his last five starts, last four of which went over. Orioles are 2-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-3-1

New York won four of last five games; over is 6-2 in their last eight road games. Baltimore won nine of last 12 games; three of their last four games stayed under.

Indians @ White Sox
Salazar is 1-1, 3.38 in his last four starts; under is 4-2-1 in his last seven. He is 1-2, 4.24 against the White Sox this season. Cleveland is 5-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-6-3

Holmberg is 1-2, 5.96 in six starts this year (under 3-2-1), last of which was June 26. Chicago is 2-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-2-1

Indians won their last 12 games; over is 5-4 in his last nine road games. White Sox won three of last five home games; under is 9-1 in their last ten home games.

Angels @ A’s
Richards is making his first start since throwing four innings April 5, then hurting his arm again. Angels’ first 5-inning record with him: 1-0

Graveman is 2-1, 3.60 in his last four starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. He is 1-1, 4.13 in four starts against the Angels this season. Oakland is 5-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-5-5

Angels are 6-3 in their last nine games; over is 10-2 in their last 12 games. Oakland lost its last seven games; over is 7-2 in their last nine home games.

Astros @ Mariners
Verlander makes his Astros debut here; he was 2-0, 1.71 in his last three starts for Detroit, all of which stayed under the total.

Miranda is 1-1, 7.23 in his last five starts; over is 9-3 in his last 12 starts. He is 0-2, 6.27 in three starts vs Houston this season. Seattle is 5-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-10-2

Astros won their last five games; over is 3-2 in their last five road games. Seattle won five of its last six home games; over is 5-3 in their last eight games.

Blue Jays @ Red Sox
Estrada is 3-1, 5,72 in his last five starts; Jays scored 21 runs in his last two starts. Over is 4-0 in his last four starts. He is 0-0, 1.69 in two starts vs Boston this season. Toronto is 7-9 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-15-3

Rodriguez is 0-2, 6.85 in his last four starts; his last six starts stayed under. Red Sox are 6-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-10

Blue Jays lost six of last nine games; under is 5-2 in their last seven games. Boston lost four of last five games; under is 5-2 in their last seven games.

Twins @ Rays
Colon is 4-1, 3.40 in his last six starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five. Minnesota is 2-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-3-1

Odorizzi is 1-3, 6.85 in his last five starts; over is 11-3 in his last 14 starts. Rays lost his last six home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-9-4

Twins won five of last eight games; under is 5-2 in their last seven road games. Tampa Bay is 7-4 in its last 11 games; under is 4-3-1 in his last eight games.

Interleague

Rangers @ Braves
Gonzalez makes his Texas debut here; he was 2-0, 1.85 in his last five starts (under 5-0) for the White Sox.

Teheran is 2-0, 1.93 in his last two starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. Atlanta is 4-9 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-10-5

Rangers won five of last seven games; over is 7-1-1 in their last nine games. Atlanta lost seven of last ten games; under is 6-3 in their last nine games.

Record with this pitcher starting

Phil-NY: Lively 3-7; deGrom 16-11
Mil-Cin: Davies Stephenson 4-2
SF-Colo: Blach 9-14; Hoffman 8-8
Chi-Pitt: Hendricks 10-9; Brault 0-0
StL-SD: Wacha 12-13; Wood 4-3
Wash-Mia: Strasburg 17-6; Despaigne 1-2
Az-LA: Greinke 19-8; Ryu 11-9

American League
KC-Det: Vargas 16-10 (0-3 last 3); Sanchez 5-6 (0-3 last 3)
NY-Balt: Sabathia 15-7; Hellickson 3-3
Clev-Chi: Salazar 7-9; Holmberg 3-3
LA-A’s: Richards 1-0; Graveman 6-8
Hst-Sea: Verlander 0-0 (13-15); Miranda 15-11
Tor-Bos: Estrada 13-15; Rodriguez 10-9 (0-3 last 3)
Minn-TB: Colon 5-4; Odorizzi 9-14

Interleague
Tex-Atl: Gonzalez 0-0 (9-13); Teheran 12-15

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
Phil-NY: Lively 3-10; deGrom 8-27
Mil-Cin: Davies Stephenson 2-6
SF-Colo: Blach 7-23; Hoffman 6-16
Chi-Pitt: Hendricks 7-19; Brault 0-0
StL-SD: Wacha 3-25; Wood 2-7
Wash-Mia: Strasburg 4-23; Despaigne 1-3
Az-LA: Greinke 3-27; Ryu 8-20

American League
KC-Det: Vargas 6-26; Sanchez 1-11
NY-Balt: Sabathia 5-22; Hellickson 1-6
Clev-Chi: Salazar 6-16; Holmberg 1-6
LA-A’s: Richards 0-1; Graveman 8-14
Hst-Sea: Verlander 7-28; Miranda 12-26
Tor-Bos: Estrada 10-28; Rodriguez 4-19
Minn-TB: Colon 1-9; Odorizzi 7-23

Interleague
Tex-Atl: Gonzalez 6-22; Teheran 8-27

Umpires

National League
Phil-NY: Under is 6-2 in last eight Gibson games.
Mil-Cin: Over is 9-5 in last 14 Whitson games.
SF-Colo: Over is 8-3 in last 11 Fletcher games.
Chi-Pitt: Over is 12-6 in last 18 Demuth games.
StL-SD: Last three Miller games went over the total.
Wash-Mia: Under is 11-6 in last 17 O’Nora games.
Az-LA: Over is 11-4 in last 15 Rackley games.

American League
KC-Det: Under is 8-3 in last eleven Blaser games.
NY-Balt: Under is 6-2 in last eight Hoye games.
Clev-Chi: Under is 7-2 in last nine Timmons games.
LA-A’s: Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Woodring games.
Hst-Sea: Over is 6-1-1 in last eight May games.
Tor-Bos: Under is 4-1-1 in last six Hudson games.
Minn-TB: Over is 7-3-1 in last 11 Cooper games.

Interleague
Tex-Atl: Under is 6-1 in last seven Torres games.

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 79-55 AL, favorites +$403
AL @ NL– 71-66 NL, favorites +$50
Total: 145-126 AL, favorites +$453

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 67-66-3
AL @ NL: Over 72-59-7
Total: Over 139-125-10

Armadillosports.com

MLB Betting Picks & Tips
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

New York (-120) at Baltimore; Total: 10

The Yankees and Orioles fire it up again on Tuesday night with CC Sabathia up against Jeremy Hellickson. Sharp bettors have to be beside themselves about this game since these are two pitchers that they have been looking to fade throughout the season. To his credit, Sabathia has put together a pretty decent season. He has a 3.71 ERA with a 4.37 FIP and a 4.30 xFIP. What Sabathia has done has been impressive because he has dealt with a loss of velocity and a loss of swing and miss by changing his approach. Over the last two seasons, Sabathia has had ground ball rates over 50 percent. He has issued more walks, but he has also induced a weaker level of contact.

Jeremy Hellickson just isn’t very good. He’s induced a fair amount of weak aerial contact, but he has also allowed a lot of home runs and has a much lower strikeout rate than Sabathia. Hellickson has a 5.15/5.53/5.39 pitcher slash on the season. Sabathia has been more fortunate with stranding runners, but he also has better overall stuff. In six starts with the Orioles, things have not gone well for Hellickson with a 6.55 ERA, a 5.67 FIP, and a 5.41 xFIP.

We’re starting to see some money hit the market on Sabathia and I believe that is the right side. Factor in the Yankees bullpen and this looks like the right approach to the game. I’ll be on the visitors in this one.

Minnesota at Tampa Bay (-140); Total: 9.5

The lack of respect for Bartolo Colon is evident in the marketplace. It is hard to envision Jake Odorizzi and the Rays as a -140 favorite over anybody and certainly not a team that has been playing the way that the Twins have. Byron Buxton is raking and the Twins are getting a lot of contributions from a lot of different players. Yet, they still trail the Indians by 10 games in the AL Central. Minnesota just wrapped up 20-10 month of August and lost ground in the division, but obviously picked up some ground in the Wild Card standings.

Colon has a 6.25 ERA with a 5.08 FIP and a 5.12 xFIP for the season as a whole, but he has had some effective starts with the Twins. In 13 starts with the Braves, he only stranded 48.2 percent of his runners. In nine starts with the Twins, he has stranded 85.4 percent of his runners. He’s still allowing way too much hard contact, but Minnesota is a vastly improved defensive team with their outfield shifting and aggressiveness with shifts on the infield. Colon’s BABIP against is still .323, but given that it was .360 with the Braves, he is making some strides with an improved defense.

Jake Odorizzi has a 4.85 ERA with a 5.97 FIP and a 5.47 xFIP. He’s made 23 starts and has allowed 28 home runs. He’s a very extreme fly ball pitcher, with a ground ball rate of just 29.3 percent. Since he came off the DL on August 9, Odorizzi hasn’t been overly effective. He has walked 17 and struck out 15 in 22.1 innings of work across five starts. He’s given up five home runs. His command and control are both lacking. That doesn’t profile as a guy that should be a -140 favorite in this spot or against anybody for that matter.

Colon is a tough guy to back for a lot of reasons, but I’m confident that the Twins win this game more than 44 percent of the time, so I think there’s some value on this number. I’ll be looking to back Minnesota here.

Kansas City (-140) at Detroit; Total: 10

The Royals will send Jason Vargas to the mound for this AL Central showdown against Anibal Sanchez and the Tigers. The market has shown a slight preference for the Tigers in this spot, which is something that I cannot get behind. The Tigers have been a great offense against left-handed pitching throughout the season, but Miguel Cabrera is hurt, Justin Upton has been traded, Ian Kinsler is a shell of himself, and it is just a team that is in shambles right now.

The fact that the market is fading Vargas is not surprising. He has a 3.87 ERA with a 4.52 FIP and a 4.93 xFIP. The Regression Monster has been gnawing on Vargas for a while. Since July 5, the left-hander has a 7.20 ERA with a 6.64 FIP and a 5.33 xFIP. He only has 38 strikeouts in 50 innings and has allowed 14 home runs in that span. It was almost like his level of performance wasn’t going to continue. In six August starts, Vargas had a 7.18 ERA with a 6.23 FIP. He’s going in the wrong direction in every way imaginable.

Unfortunately, so are the Tigers. They’ve traded off a bunch of players and Brad Ausmus is probably a dead man walking, or at least he should be. He’s not the right type of manager to oversee what is sure to be a long and arduous rebuild. Even though, like Odorizzi and the Rays, the Royals don’t deserve to be a -140 favorite, this is a spot where I simply cannot play the underdog.

Texas at Atlanta (-130); Total: 9.5

The Rangers and Braves square off in Atlanta for some interleague action on Tuesday night. Miguel Gonzalez battles it out with Julio Teheran. This will be Gonzalez’s first start with the Rangers. He’s been with the White Sox since the start of 2016. Gonzalez had a 4.31 ERA with a 4.56 FIP and a 5.56 xFIP in his 22 starts with the Pale Hose. He had a career year in 2016, but wasn’t able to repeat it this season and the Rangers were looking for a warm body to work some innings late in the year. Guys like Gonzalez always find work, but he’ll have to look good in September to get a decent offer.

His strikeout rate is down, his walk rate is up, and his command is down with a spike in BABIP and home runs. Gonzalez still has just an 8.4 percent HR/FB%, so he has been able to keep the ball in the park, which has been a big help.

Julio Teheran was a guy that I isolated early in the season as a fade candidate. He has a 4.75 ERA with a 5.11 FIP and a 4.89 xFIP. He’s given up a career-high 29 home runs in just 157.1 innings of work. Last season, he allowed 22 HR in 188 and his previous career-high of 27 came in 200.2 innings. Teheran has experienced a velocity drop and a big spike in walks, so I postulated that he was hurt, but he’s managed to take the ball every fifth day. He just hasn’t been that good when he has done it. His recent starts have been a mix of good and mostly tolerable, so maybe he is going to finish the season on a high note.

The Rangers are a team that I haven’t had much interest in backing this season. I’m not sure I like them here either. Like the two games above, the favorite doesn’t deserve to be this big of a favorite, but Gonzalez is starting for a new team with a new catcher. There can be some miscommunication in that department. It’ll be a stay away game, though I may look at Gonzalez as a buy candidate down the stretch run.

Arizona at Los Angeles (-125); Total: 8

Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu are set to get it going tonight at Chavez Ravine. The Dodgers continued to struggle and were absolutely dominated by Robbie Ray and the Diamondbacks on Monday night. That was a stunner, as Arizona hasn’t done much with lefties this season, but the Dodgers are in some kind of funk right about now. Better now than in October, but this is one of those spots where you have to wonder when the bleeding will stop and who will stop it.

Greinke is having a fantastic season. He has a 3.08 ERA with a 3.14 FIP and a 3.25 xFIP. He’s back to getting lots of swings and misses and his other peripherals look more like the Zack Greinke we’ve come to know. It has been a really strong season for Arizona overall and Greinke has been at the front of the efforts. August was a little bit of a tough month for Greinke, as the sequencing and BABIP gods made a stop in his locker and followed him out to the mound. One thing that could be a potential worry is that he only has 14 strikeouts in his last 16.2 innings of work. The explosiveness has been lacking a little bit from the stuff lately.

Hyun-Jin Ryu is another lefty for the Diamondbacks, who have struggled in that split throughout the season. Arizona rocked Ryu last time out though with six runs on eight hits, including three home runs. Ryu’s only start worse than that one came at Coors Field on May 11. Will he be able to bounce back in this spot and have better success or was that a sign of things to come? Ryu, who has spent the last two seasons hurt, has gotten pretty lucky with balls in play in two of his last three starts and only has a 10/9 K/BB ratio across his last 15 innings. I’m wondering if the workload is becoming a bit of a factor for him. Ryu has thrown 111.2 innings this season after throwing just 4.2 at the MLB level last season and zero in 2015.

Right now, it’s hard to step in front of the Diamondbacks. The Dodgers have a plethora of talent, but guys have hit a bit of a wall. The urgency isn’t really there to stop it because the top seed in the NL, home field advantage in the World Series, and the division are all pretty much locked up. Arizona just keeps pushing. Paul Goldschmidt is hurt, didn’t play last night, and Arizona still scored 13 runs. This is a team that is feeling good about itself right now.

I’m a numbers guy. I don’t like grey areas. But, there are confidence elements in baseball that can come to the forefront. Right now, Arizona is as confident as anybody and they’re playing like it. That has to be factored into your handicapping, as much as it pains me to say since that is a rather unquantifiable element.

Tuesday's MLB Best Bet
Vegasinsider.com

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners

Odds: Houston (-156) vs. Seattle (+146); Total 9.5

After an emotional return to Houston for the Astros over the weekend, they are now back out on the road for a 10-game road trip, all against division rivals. The trip got started out on the right foot last night with a 6-2 win over Seattle, knocking the Mariners back down to the .500 mark and trailing a handful of teams in the wildcard race. Houston's playoff position has been locked up for months atop the AL West, but tonight is their first look at their new prized pitching acquisition – Justin Verlander – on the mound.

Verlander is making his first start for the 1st place Astros tonight, and after all the complaining Houston players did after the July trade deadline, many have to be excited to see Verlander in an Astros uniform. He is exactly the time of big time name with an established pedigree that the Houston players were hoping to get in late-July, and tonight's their first opportunity to back up those thoughts they shared by giving Verlander plenty of offensive support.

It will be the 5th time this year that Houston's hitters have faced Seattle starter Ariel Miranda, and in three of the four previous outings the Astros have hit two HR's. Verlander would love to get that kind of help tonight, because you know he's feeling the weight of the heavy expectations thrust upon his shoulders as being that “big name” guy that can hopefully put Houston over the top in 2017.

That type of pressure can do funny things to a player, especially a pitcher trying to prove to his new team that he's definitely worth the price they paid for him. Verlander's last start with Detroit was a good one as he struck out nine and allowed just three hits over six innings at a hitter-friendly park in Coors Field. But his last start vs. Seattle this season was one where it was feast or famine for Verlander. He struck out 11 over 5.2 innings of work, but also game up three runs on four hits in just 5.2 innings of work. He's lost his last three starts overall vs the Mariners, and is just 2-5 SU vs. Seattle in his last seven.

With the added pressure on Verlander with him trying to prove his worth, maybe getting his first start in an Astros uniform against Seattle isn't the best option for Houston tonight. Throw in the likely emotional letdown coming for the Astros soon after their very emotional trip back home over the weekend (they are likely running on fumes right now), and the -160ish price tag on the Astros looks quite steep.

Seattle's Ariel Miranda is 2-2 SU vs. Houston this year, but both losses have come at home. Facing a team for the 5th time in a season does Miranda no favors tonight, but from a situational standpoint, he and his Seattle teammates do have a bit of an edge. All eyes (and the pressure) will be on Verlander in his Astros debut, and after everything that's gone on in Houston the past 10+ days, the rest of the Houston team may not be at their best to back Verlander up.

After numerous Astros players complained about management not being active at the trade deadline in July, it would be poetic justice that Houston's offense runs out of gas in the first start of the big name pitcher management finally went out and got.

Seattle was in last night's series opener until a four-run 7th did them in, and Seattle is on a 7-2 SU run when Miranda is on the hill after a full five days of rest. The Mariners are also 5-1 SU in their last six at home, and are definitely the more desperate team in terms of needing this win for their playoff aspirations.

Conversely, Houston is just 2-10 SU in their last 12 against a southpaw starter – including 1-5 SU in their last six on the road – and with much more pressure on them tonight with Verlander making his debut, I believe we see the emotionally drained Astros run out of gas tonight.

Home underdogs are ones I have no problem playing when the right situation presents itself, and tonight's situation is one where Seattle is more than capable of spoiling Verlander's debut. Add in the fact that more than 90% of the wagers have come in on Houston ML so far according to VegasInsider.com's betting percentage numbers, and the odds have actually moved in Seattle's favor since opening, and I'm taking a shot with the Mariners tonight.

Best Bet: Seattle Mariners +146

MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com

Double-Play Picks

Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers (+115, 10)

The Royals and Tigers will get together for Game 2 of their three-game series Tuesday evening. The Royals took the opener 7-6 and have now beaten the Tigers in six consecutive meetings.

The Tigers are now just 3-12 in their last 15 home games and will send one of our all-time starting pitcher fades to the mound tonight. Anibal Sanchez did have a decent stretch of winning games earlier in the summer, but he is back to his losing ways and could be headed back to the bullpen (or worse) very soon.

The Tigers have lost his last three starts and in those outings he owns an ERA of 13.50, a WHIP of 2.21, an opponent's on base percentage of .431, and he has allowed NINE HOME RUNS. Let's repeat that...NINE HOME RUNS in his last three starts (11.1 innings)!

The Royals will send lefty Jason Vargas to the mound. He is in the midst of a bit of a rough patch as well, but nowhere near as bad as Sanchez - and Vargas has a much better team behind him.

The Royals have lost Vargas' last three starts but he has been solid on the road this season with a team win/loss of 8-4, a 3.88 ERA, and a WHIP of 1.29.

The Royals are still in the American League wildcard hunt and a win today over a bad team will certainly help their cause.

Pick: Royals -125

Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins (+150, 8.5)

The Nationals seem to be in cruise control heading towards a National League East title and a matchup with the Cubs, or maybe the Brewers, in the first round of the playoffs. Washington holds a 16-game lead over the second-place Marlins and the two continue a three-game set Tuesday night in Miami.

The Nationals have won six straight meetings against the Marlins and it won’t get any easier for Miami on Tuesday as Washington sends the red-hot Stephen Strasburg to the mound.

Strasburg has been absolutely dealing in his last five starts, pitching a ludicrously low 0.90 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP, while racking up 36 strikeouts to just seven walks. The Nationals are 4-1 in those starts.

Let’s not forget to mention that Strasbug has owned the Marlins over the past couple of years. The Nationals have won his last six starts against Miami, pitching to a 2.20 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP while striking out 41.

When it comes to the Marlins the only thing left to cheer for is Giancarlo Stanton dingers. He is on pace for 61 right now but aside from Stanton, the Marlins offense has dried up. Miami has scored 2.6 runs per contest in the last eight games, in which they have lost seven.

Expect Strasburg to stay hot.

Pick: Nationals -1.5 (+102)

Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season To Date: 134-124-13

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Zach Davies, Milwaukee Brewers (16-7, 3.85 ERA, $1014)

The Brewers are still clinging on to slim playoff hopes, trailing the Cubs by 3.5 games in the National League Central and 1.5 back of the second wildcard spot, and they’re in a good position to inch closer when they send Zach Davies to the hill on Tuesday.

Davies has led the Brewers to 3-1 record in his last four starts with a 1.01 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. Going back further he has pitched eight quality starts in his last nine outings, where he has a 1.77 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP.

Davies and the Brewers are -132 road favorites for tonight’s matchup against the Reds.

Slumping: Anibal Sanchez, Detroit Tigers (3-3, 7.42 ERA, $-23)

It’s tough to watch the Tigers right now. They’re bags are already packed for the off-season and they seem to take the field in body only, none show this better than Anibal Sanchez.

The Tigers’ right-hander is 0-2 in his last three starts with a whopping 13.50 ERA and a 2.21 WHIP. Sanchez and the Tigers take the field (kind of) as +115 home underdogs against the visiting Royals tonight.

Tuesday's Top Trends

* The New York Mets are 10-0 in deGroms 10 career starts vs. Phillies. -200 today.
* The Cleveland Indians are 12-0 in their last 12 games overall, including 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter. -260 today at White Sox (Holberg).
* Under is 10-0-1 in Ty Blach's last 11 starts vs. National League West. Giants/Rockies Total: 12.5.
* The Los Angeles Dodgers are 1-10 in Hyun-Jin Ryu's last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record. -125 today vs. Diamondbacks.

Weather To Keep An Eye On

Weather is certainly the talk of the sports world at the moment with Hurricane Irma barrelling down on Florida. Stay tuned on that front.

For Tuesday's MLB forecast there will be thunderstorms in the Baltimore area for most of the day and those storms could threaten tonight's games between the Orioles and the visiting Yankees.

Much like yesterday, wind could play a huge role across the league today:

Blue Jays at Red Sox (Total: 9.5) - 14-15 mile per hour wind blowing out to left-center field.
Royals at Tigers (Total: 10) - 10-12 mile per hour wind blowing out to left field.
Phillies at Mets (Total: 8 ) - 13-16 mile per hour wind blowing out to left-center field.
Brewers at Reds (Total: 9.5) - 8-12 mile per hour wind blowing out to right-center field.
Indians at White Sox (Total: 9.5) - 10-12 mile per hour wind blowing out to right-center field.
Angels at Athletics (Total: 9.5) - 11-14 mile per hour wind blowing out to right field.
Cardinals at Padres (Total: 8.5) - 9-12 mile per hour wind blowing in from left field.

Ump Of The Day

Tom Woodring will be calling balls and strikes today in Oakland where the A's will take on the Angels. Woodring ranks No. 5 in our Over umpire standings at 13-6 (68.4 percent).

He's not a huge volume guy when it comes to home plate assignments, but when he does get behind the dish his games tend to lean toward the Over. In 60 career games, starting in 2014, the Over is 38-22 (63.33 percent) in games with Woodring in pads.

The total for today's game in Oakland is currently set at 9.5.