NLDS Betting Preview: Cardinals at Nationals
By Covers.com
St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals (-107, 7.5)
Series tied at 1-1
The Washington Nationals are about to host the city’s first playoff game since 1933 when they host the St. Louis Cardinals on Wednesday. Once that novelty wears off, they will get back to the business of trying to win a series.
The Nationals squandered a chance to take a commanding 2-0 lead in the best-of-five National League Division Series when Jordan Zimmermann struggled in Game 2. Now it is the Cardinals with some momentum and a red-hot Carlos Beltran.
Beltran homered twice in Game 2, boosting his career postseason slugging percentage to higher than .800 and setting the Cardinals on a familiar path. St. Louis dropped the opener of both the NLDS and the NL Championship Series last year before recovering to advance and eventually win the World Series. Washington is full of players making their first postseason appearance but one of the few veterans - Edwin Jackson - gets the start in Game 3.
Jackson was with the Cardinals last October and made four postseason starts. This time, he will be going up against a lineup that pounded out four home runs in Game 2 and led the majors in on-base percentage during the regular season. Allen Craig, Daniel Descalso and Jon Jay all had success in Game 2 and Matt Holliday has yet to break out.
WEATHER: The forecast is calling for partialy cloudly skies and temperatures in the mid 60s. Winds are expected to blow SW at 8 mph.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Cardinals RH Chris Carpenter (0-2, 3.71 ERA) vs. Nationals RH Edwin Jackson (10-11, 4.03)
Last year’s playoff hero, Carpenter missed the majority of the season after undergoing surgery and has made only three starts in 2012. The veteran right-hander, who accelerated his rehab in order to come back and help the team in the playoffs, did not allow more than three earned runs in any of those three turns and has recorded 12 strikeouts against three walks in 17 total innings. Carpenter is 9-2 with a 3.05 ERA in 15 career postseason starts and has been strong in the past against Washington, posting a 6-1 record with a 3.27 ERA in 12 turns.
Jackson struggled with his consistency down the stretch, allowing one run in three of his final seven starts and a total of 23 (21 earned) in the other four. That inconsistency was at its most apparent against St. Louis. The right-hander struck out eight and did not allow and earned run over eight innings in a win over the Cardinals on Aug. 30 but was pounded for nine runs (eight earned) in only 1 1/3 innings at St. Louis on Sept. 28. Jackson has been better at Nationals Park this season, going 6-6 with a 3.35 ERA in 15 starts.
TRENDS:
* Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Washington.
* Over is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings.
* Under is 5-2 in Carpenters last seven starts vs. Nationals.
* Cardinals are 1-8 in the last nine meetings in Washington.
UMP TRENDS - Joe West:
* Road team is 10-1 in Wests last 11 Wednesday games behind home plate.
* Road team is 4-1 in Wests last five games behind home plate.
* Over is 3-1-1 in Wests last five games behind home plate vs. Washington.
* Over is 19-7 in Wests last 26 games behind home plate vs. St. Louis.
* Home team is 15-7 in Wests last 22 games behind home plate vs. Washington.
* Nationals are 5-14 in their last 19 games with West behind home plate.
WALK-OFFS:
1. Nationals rookie CF Bryce Harper is 1-for-10 with a double and six strikeouts through the first two games.
2. After failing to record an extra-base hit in Sunday’s opener, the teams combined for 11 in Game 2. St. Louis accounted for eight, including four homers and a triple.
3. Washington has committed four errors in the series while St. Louis has only been charged with one. Of course, the Cardinals’ error led to the deciding runs in the Nationals’ 3-2 victory in Game 1.
ALDS Betting Preview: Orioles at Yankees
By Covers.com
Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees (-170, 8.5)
Series tied 1-1
After earning a split of the first two games in Baltimore, the New York Yankees attempt to cash in on their home-field advantage when they host Game Three of their American League Division Series against the Orioles on Wednesday.
New York broke open a tight series opener in the ninth inning Sunday but dropped a 3-2 nail-biter at Camden Yards on Monday as Baltimore closer Jim Johnson bounced back from a disastrous outing to set down the Yankees in order and notch his first career postseason save.
Game 2 followed the same pattern as the opener, with New York scoring a run in the first inning and Baltimore plating two in the third. The difference may have been the fourth inning as the Orioles allowed the tying run to score on Monday but escaped a bases-loaded, one-out jam Tuesday to preserve their lead. Wei-Yin Chen notched the win in his postseason debut while 40-year-old Andy Pettitte took the loss, failing to add to his all-time playoff victory total of 19.
The Orioles improved to 76-0 when leading after seven innings and 30-9 in one-run games this year. They posted a 6-3 record at Yankee Stadium during the regular season.
WEATHER: The forecast in the Bronx is calling for a 20 percent chance of showers earlier in the evening, eventually clear off with temperatures falling into the high 50s. Winds are expected to blow WSW at 13 mph.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Orioles RH Miguel Gonzalez (9-4, 3.25 ERA) vs. Yankees RH Hiroki Kuroda (16-11, 3.32)
Gonzalez won his final three starts of the regular season and allowed two runs or less in five of his last six outings. The 28-year-old Mexican was impressive on the road in his first major league campaign, going 6-2 with a 2.74 ERA in 11 games - including two relief appearances. Gonzalez was 2-0 against the Yankees, with both victories coming in New York. He yielded four runs while striking out eight over 6 2/3 innings July 30 and fanned nine in seven scoreless frames Aug. 31.
Kuroda also finished the regular season strong, winning four of his final five decisions. The 37-year-old native of Japan had the majority of his success this year at home, where he went 11-6 with a 2.72 ERA in 19 outings. Kuroda split his two starts against the Orioles, both of which were at Yankee Stadium. He allowed one run over seven innings in a win April 30 while yielding four runs over 8 1/3 frames in a loss to Gonzalez on Aug. 31.
TRENDS:
* Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Under is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings in New York.
* Orioles are 29-59 in the last 88 meetings in New York.
* Orioles are 25-56 in the last 81 meetings.
UMP TRENDS - Brian Gorman:
* Over is 4-0-1 in Gormans last five Wednesday games behind home plate.
* Road team is 4-0 in Gormans last four Wednesday games behind home plate vs. New York.
* Over is 5-2 in Gormans last seven games behind home plate vs. New York.
* Orioles are 0-4 in their last four Wednesday games with Gorman behind home plate.
WALK-OFFS:
1. Yankees LF Ichiro Suzuki went 1-for-5 on Monday to extend his hitting streak at Camden Yards to 21 games.
2. New York (245) and Baltimore (214) were the top two teams in the major leagues in home runs during the regular season, but have combined for one over the first two games of the series.
3. Yankees RF Nick Swisher has one hit in his last 33 postseason at-bats with runners in scoring position.
Preview: Giants at Reds
By Covers.com
The San Francisco Giants are living dangerously, while the Cincinnati Reds are scrambling to set their rotation. The drama continues in Game 4 of the National League Division Series on Wednesday with Cincinnati leading 2-1 after the Giants won 2-1 in 10 innings Tuesday. The Giants won despite managing only three hits and striking out 16 times, and the first two batters in the Giants lineup - Angel Pagan and Marco Scutaro - are 2-for-24 in the series. Cincinnati is still seeking its first home playoff win in 17 years after Scott Rolen’s fielding error allowed the winning run to score Tuesday.
Cincinnati will likely place Johnny Cueto (oblique strain) on the disabled list and activate Mike Leake, with Mat Latos - or possibly Leake - expected to start Game 4. Cueto would be ineligible to return in the NL Championship Series if he is replaced on the NLDS roster. The Reds were 50-31 during the regular season at Great American Ball Park, where they didn’t lose three consecutive home games all year. They’re hoping to win Game 4 and enjoy a few days rest before the NLCS, especially after Cueto’s injury shook up their rotation. First baseman Joey Votto is 3-for-9 in the series, but hasn’t homered since returning from knee surgery on Sept. 5. The Giants will send Barry Zito to the mound in Game 4, with Matt Cain set to start Game 5, if necessary. Two-time Cy Young award winner Tim Lincecum will be available out of the bullpen.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Reds RH Mat Latos (14-4, 3.48 ERA) vs. Giants LH Barry Zito (15-8, 4.15)
Latos will be starting on three days rest for the first time in his career after throwing 57 pitches over four innings in relief of Cueto in Game 1. Latos finished the regular season with a career high in innings pitched (209 1/3) and WHIP (1.16) and went 7-1 with a 2.46 ERA over his last 14 starts. Pablo Sandoval is 6-for-29 (.207) against Latos, who is 4-3 with a 2.19 ERA in 11 career starts against the Giants.
Zito is set to make his first playoff start since 2006 after he was left off the Giants’ postseason roster in 2010. The Giants won each of Zito’s last 11 starts of the season, and he went 7-0 with a 3.92 ERA during that stretch. Brandon Phillips is 8-for-19 (.421) against Zito, who is 0-2 with a 6.10 ERA in six career starts in Cincinnati and received an average of 5.96 runs of support in his 32 starts this season.
WALK-OFFS
1. Since Division Series play began in 1995, the team that started 2-0 has advanced 38 of 42 times.
2. Giants RF Hunter Pence is 1-for-12 in the series and experienced leg cramps in the 10th inning Tuesday, but is expected to play Wednesday.
3. Cincinnati’s starting pitcher has taken a no-hit bid into the fifth inning in each of the past two games.
ALDS Betting Preview: Tigers at Athletics
By Covers.com
Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics
Detroit leads series 2-1
The Oakland Athletics were a little upset about the format of the best-of-five American League Division Series after dropping the first two games on the road. Now that they have a win in their pocket, the Athletics are in position to even the series and go for the win at the O.co Coliseum.
Oakland has won seven straight at home dating back to the regular season and will try to make it eight behind A.J. Griffin on Wednesday night. The A’s used a familiar formula in Game 3, getting strong pitching and defense to go along with timely hitting. Coco Crisp, whose error led to the go-ahead runs in the Game 2 setback, scored a run and robbed a homer from Prince Fielder on Monday.
The first four hitters in the Detroit lineup combined to go 1-for-15 with six strikeouts in Oakland’s spacious ballpark but the Tigers have the advantage of the top two strikeout pitchers in baseball lined up for the next two games in Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.
WEATHER: The forecast calls for cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 60s. Winds are expected to blow west at 6 mph.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Tigers RH Max Scherzer (16-7, 3.74 ERA) vs. Athletics RH A.J. Griffin (7-1, 3.06)
Scherzer missed a start with a shoulder strain but came back to pitch the regular season finale, allowing three hits in four scoreless innings. The right-hander finished behind only Verlander with 231 strikeouts and has not surrendered more than three runs in a start since Aug. 5. Scherzer suffered the shoulder injury against Oakland on Sept. 18 and was lifter after allowing one run in two innings. He beat the A’s in Oakland on May 10, striking out nine and yielding two runs in 6 1/3 frames.
Griffin struggled down the stretch and was knocked out of the regular season finale after just 2 2/3 innings. The 24-year-old rookie did not complete six innings in any of his last four starts and suffered his lone loss against Detroit on Sept. 18. Griffin was lit up for five runs on eight hits in 4 2/3 innings in that turn, surrendering home runs to Fielder, Miguel Cabrera and Jhonny Peralta. Griffin has yet to lose at home, going 3-0 with a 3.21 ERA in eight starts.
TRENDS:
* Over is 3-0-1 in Scherzers last four starts vs. Athletics.
* Tigers are 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Under is 14-6-1 in the last 21 meetings in Oakland.
UMP TRENDS - Eric Cooper:
* Over is 4-0 in Coopers last four games behind home plate vs. Oakland.
* Over is 4-0 in Coopers last four Wednesday games behind home plate vs. Detroit.
* Tigers are 3-7 in their last 10 games with Cooper behind home plate.
* Athletics are 5-18 in their last 23 games with Cooper behind home plate.
WALK-OFFS:
1. Fielder was robbed three times in Game 3 and is batting just .083 (1-for-12) in the series.
2. Oakland relievers Ryan Cook, Grant Balfour and Sean Doolittle, who combined to allow four runs (two earned) with two blown saves and a loss in Game 2, combined to strikeout five in three scoreless innings in Game 3.
3. Detroit’s string of right-handed starters has kept the right-handed side of the A’s platoons on the bench. Seth Smith and Brandon Moss will likely continue to start in place of Jonny Gomes and Chris Carter.
MLB Preview
Jackson was with Cardinals LY; he was 1-1, 5.60 in four postseason starts in Cards' World Series run. He allowed one (unearned) run vs Cards Aug 30 in a 8-1 win, then gave up nine runs (eight earned) in 12-2 loss at St Louis Sept 28, which sums up his career. He has allowed 12 runs in 22 career postseason IP. Washington is 5-4 vs Cardinals this year, with home side 6-3 in those games; seven of the nine games went over total. Carpenter is 0-2, 3.71 in three starts this season, allowing only 19 baserunners in 17 IP. He is 9-2, 3.05 in his 15 career postseason starts.
Cueto is out until World Series, if Reds get that far; Leake takes his place here- he is 1-0, 3.32 in his last three starts, and beat Giants 5-1 with CG effort back on June 29. Zito is 5-0, 2.35 in his last five starts; he allowed one run in six IP in both his '12 starts vs Cincy, but didn't win either one. Zito is 4-3, 3.25 in his seven postseason starts. Reds/Giants are both 12-7 in their last 19 games; Reds are 6-4 against SF this year after winning twice out west. Under is 10-2 in Cincinnati's last 11 home games, seven of last ten Giant road games also stayed under. Ball doesn't carry as well in this park in cooler weather.
MGonzalez is 3-0, 2.10 in his last four starts, 2-0, 2.63 in two starts against Bronx this season, both in this park. Kuroda is 2-0, 2.92 in his last two starts, 1-1, 2.93 in two starts vs Baltimore this year. Road team is 13-7 in Bronx-O's games this season; Orioles are 6-3 at this site. Over is 5-1-1 in last seven series games. Keep in mind Baltimore is 30-9 in one-run games and has won sixteen extra-inning games in a row. They're a confident team. Pressure is on Bronx.
Detroit is 6-4 vs Oakland this year, won 10 of last 13 games overall, but lost 12 of last 20 road games. Oakland won seven in row and nine of last ten home tilts, Scherzer is 5-1, 1.50 in his last nine starts but has been battling physical problems, most recently a bum ankle- he allowed three runs in 7.1 IP vs A's this year. Griffin is 1-1, 7.79 in his last four starts; he allowed five runs in 4.2 IP at Detroit Sept 18. Home side won all three series games; visitors are 7-2 in other nine playoff games.
Armadillosports.com
ST LOUIS (90 - 75) at WASHINGTON (99 - 65) - 1:05 PM
CHRIS CARPENTER (R) vs. EDWIN JACKSON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 90-75 (-3.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ST LOUIS is 59-57 (-12.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 27-36 (-16.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ST LOUIS is 90-75 (-3.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 39-43 (-9.1 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
CARPENTER is 1-9 (-14.1 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 96-65 (+19.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
WASHINGTON is 70-45 (+17.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
WASHINGTON is 48-36 (+10.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
WASHINGTON is 40-31 (+13.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 99-65 (+22.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 20-6 (+13.8 Units) against the money line when playing on Wednesday this season.
ST LOUIS is 50-37 (+13.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 18-9 (+12.0 Units) against the money line in October games over the last 3 seasons.
CARPENTER is 11-3 (+9.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSON is 12-19 (-9.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
JACKSON is 11-19 (-10.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
JACKSON is 2-9 (-7.8 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 5-4 (+1.0 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
7 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+4.8 Units)
CHRIS CARPENTER vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
CARPENTER is 6-1 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 3.39 and a WHIP of 1.324.
His team's record is 7-5 (-1.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-5. (+1.3 units)
EDWIN JACKSON vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
JACKSON is 1-2 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 4.59 and a WHIP of 1.528.
His team's record is 2-4 (-2.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-4. (-3.5 units)
SAN FRANCISCO (95 - 70) at CINCINNATI (99 - 66) - 4:05 PM
BARRY ZITO (L) vs. MIKE LEAKE (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 6-4 (+2.5 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.5 Units)
BARRY ZITO vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
ZITO is 3-4 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 6.21 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 5-6 (-0.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-4. (+2.9 units)
MIKE LEAKE vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
LEAKE is 3-0 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 2.28 and a WHIP of 1.374.
His team's record is 4-0 (+4.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-1. (+1.9 units)
BALTIMORE (95 - 70) at NY YANKEES (96 - 68) - 7:35 PM
MIGUEL GONZALEZ (R) vs. HIROKI KURODA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 90-56 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
BALTIMORE is 15-5 (+13.3 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off this season.
BALTIMORE is 44-30 (+22.1 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
BALTIMORE is 87-60 (+37.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
BALTIMORE is 63-55 (+17.3 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
BALTIMORE is 67-51 (+26.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
BALTIMORE is 54-40 (+19.9 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
BALTIMORE is 55-42 (+28.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BALTIMORE is 27-23 (+13.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
BALTIMORE is 95-70 (+38.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BALTIMORE is 37-22 (+19.1 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
BALTIMORE is 15-9 (+15.3 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +150 to +175 this season.
BALTIMORE is 47-35 (+28.3 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
GONZALEZ is 11-4 (+10.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
GONZALEZ is 7-2 (+8.8 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
GONZALEZ is 8-2 (+9.0 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
GONZALEZ is 9-3 (+8.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
GONZALEZ is 10-3 (+9.7 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
GONZALEZ is 6-1 (+8.8 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
GONZALEZ is 6-1 (+8.8 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
NY YANKEES are 118-102 (-19.1 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 68-75 (-23.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 10-10 (+4.3 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
10 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.7 Units, Under=-1.3 Units)
MIGUEL GONZALEZ vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
GONZALEZ is 2-0 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 2.63 and a WHIP of 0.805.
His team's record is 2-0 (+3.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.1 units)
HIROKI KURODA vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
KURODA is 1-1 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 2.94 and a WHIP of 0.848.
His team's record is 1-1 (-0.9 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-0. (+2.0 units)
DETROIT (90 - 75) at OAKLAND (95 - 70) - 9:35 PM
MAX SCHERZER (R) vs. A.J. GRIFFIN (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 6-4 (+1.1 Units) against OAKLAND this season
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.9 Units)
MAX SCHERZER vs. OAKLAND since 1997
SCHERZER is 2-1 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 3.79 and a WHIP of 1.316.
His team's record is 3-1 (+1.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-0. (+3.0 units)
A.J. GRIFFIN vs. DETROIT since 1997
GRIFFIN is 0-1 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 9.64 and a WHIP of 1.927.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.1 units)
ST. LOUIS vs. WASHINGTON
St. Louis is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing Washington
St. Louis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Washington's last 12 games
Washington is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing St. Louis
SAN FRANCISCO vs. CINCINNATI
San Francisco is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing Cincinnati
San Francisco is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games on the road
Cincinnati is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Cincinnati's last 12 games at home
BALTIMORE vs. NY YANKEES
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baltimore's last 7 games when playing NY Yankees
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Yankees's last 9 games when playing at home against Baltimore
DETROIT vs. OAKLAND
Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Oakland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games at home
St Louis at Washington
Carpenter: 1-9 TSR against the money line in day games
Jackson: Washington 20-6 SU when playing on Wednesday
San Francisco at Cincinnati
Zito: San Francisco 34-15 SU after scoring 2 runs or less
Leake: Cincinnati is 2-8 SU at home after allowing 4 runs or less 4 straight games
Baltimore at NY Yankees
Gonzalez: Baltimore 15-5 SU when playing with a day off
Kuroda: NY Yankees 10-15 SU with a well rested bullpen
Detroit at Oakland
Scherzer: Detroit 10-16 SU in road games after having won 4 or 5 of 6
Griffin: 9-2 TSR when the total is 7 to 8.5