MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Wednesday, April 12th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Padres @ Rockies
Lee made one start for the Dodgers in 2015, allowing seven runs in 4.2 IP. LY, he was a combined 7-14, 6.48 in 27 AAA starts for two different teams. This is his 2nd MLB start.
Freeland allowed one run in six IP (95 PT) in his first ’17 start, against LA.
San Diego won three of its last five games, but lost three of last four on road; under is 4-1 in their last five road games. Colorado is off to a 6-3 start; six of their last seven games stayed under.
Reds @ Pirates
Garrett blanked St Louis for six innings (78 PT) in his first big league start, a 2-0 Reds’ win.
Nova allowed one run in six IP (93 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 5-4 win over Atlanta.
Cincinnati won six of its last seven games; over is 3-2-3 in their games. Pirates are 3-4 in their first seven games, 3-2 at home. Over is 3-2-2 in their games.
Mets @ Phillies
Wheeler allowed five runs in four IP (80 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 7-2 loss to Miami.
Velasquez allowed four runs in four IP (67 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 7-6 loss to Washington.
Mets won their last three games, scoring 23 runs; over is 4-1-1 in their last six games. Phillies are 2-5 in their last seven games; four of their last six games went over.
Cardinals @ Nationals
Leake allowed one run in eight IP (92 PT) in a 2-0 loss to the Reds.
Scherzer allowed two runs in 6.2 IP (98 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 7-6 loss at Philly. .
Cardinals lost six of their last seven games; over is 4-1-1 in their last six games. Washington lost three of its last five games; over is 4-1 in their last five games.
Braves @ Marlins
Garcia allowed four runs in six IP (86 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 6-2 loss in New York.
Koehler allowed one run in five IP (71 PT) in his first ’17 start, an extra inning win in Washington.
Atlanta lost its last five games, all of which went over the total. Miami won four of its last five games; over is 4-1-1 in their last six games.
Dodgers @ Cubs
McCarthy allowed two runs in six IP (78 PT) in his first start, a 10-2 win over San Diego.
Lackey allowed four runs in six IP (98 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 6-4 win in St Louis.
Dodgers lost three of last four games; five of their last seven games stayed under. Cubs won five of last six games; over is 3-3-1 in their games this season.
Diamondbacks @ Giants
Miller allowed three runs in 5.1 IP (105 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 7-3 win over the Indians.
Cain allowed four runs in 4.1 IP (85 PT) in his first ’17 start, a loss in San Diego.
Arizona won six of its last seven games; three of its last four games stayed under. San Francisco lost five of its last seven games; three of its last four games stayed under.
American League
Twins @ Tigers
Gibson allowed three runs in five IP (81 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 5-3 win over the Royals.
Fulmer shut the Red Sox out for six innings in his first ’17 start, a 6-5 Detroit win.
Minnesota won five of its first seven games; their last five games stayed under. Detroit won five of its first seven games (over 4-3).
White Sox @ Indians
Holland allowed three runs in six IP (93 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 3-1 loss to the Twins.
Salazar allowed five runs in 5.2 IP (102 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 9-6 win in Texas.
White Sox are 2-4 in their first six games; their last four games stayed under. Indians lost three of last four games- over is 4-3 in their games this season.
Tampa Bay @ Bronx
Snell allowed five runs in 6.2 IP in his first ’17 start, a 5-2 loss to Toronto.
Montgomery is making his MLB debut; he was 5-1, 0.97 in six AAA starts LY.
Rays won three of last four games; three of those four games went over. Bronx won its last two games after a 1-4 start- their last four games all went over.
Orioles @ Red Sox
Jimenez allowed five runs in 4.1 IP (94 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 6-5 win over New York.
Wright allowed four runs in 6.2 IP (93 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 6-5 loss in Detroit.
Orioles won four of their first six games; three of their last four games went over. Boston lost three of last five games; under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
A’s @ Royals
Triggs allowed one run in 5.2 IP (91 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 5-1 win over the Angels.
Hammel allowed three runs in five IP (95 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 5-3 loss in Minnesota.
Oakland split its first eight games; their last three games stayed under. Royals lost five of their first seven games (over 3-3-1).
Rangers @ Angels
Griffin allowed four runs in 3.1 IP (75 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 10-5 win over Oakland.
Chavez allowed one run in 5.2 IP (89 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 5-1 win over Seattle.
Texas lost five of their first seven games (over 4-3). Angels won six of their last seven games; their last three games went over. Halos won last two games, despite trailing both games by 3+ runs in 9th inning.
Astros @ Mariners
Fiers allowed two runs in six IP (97 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 5-1 loss to the Royals.
Gallardo allowed three runs in five IP (90 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 5-1 loss in Anaheim.
Mariners lost seven of first nine games; under is 6-3 in their games. Houston lost four of its last six games; under is 5-3 in its games this season.
Interleague
Brewers @ Blue Jays
Anderson allowed one run in six IP (88 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 2-1 loss to Colorado.
Stroman allowed one run in 6.1 IP in his first ’17 start, a 5-2 win at Tampa Bay.
Brewers are 3-5 to start the season; four of their last six games stayed under. Toronto lost six of its first seven games (under 5-2).
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Atl-Mia: Garcia 0-1; Koehler 1-0
StL-Wsh: Leake 0-1; Scherzer 0-1
NY-Phil: Wheeler 0-1; Velasquez 0-1
Cin-Pitt: Garrett 1-0; Nova 1-0
SD-Colo: Lee 0-0; Freeland 1-0
LA-Chi: McCarthy 1-0; Lackey 1-0
Ariz-SF: Miller 1-0; Cain 0-1
American League
Min-Det: Gibson 1-0; Fulmer 1-0
Chi-Clev: Holland 0-1; Salazar 1-0
TB-NY— Snell Montgomery 0-0
Balt-Bos: Jimenez 1-0; Wright 0-1
A’s-KC: Triggs 1-0; Hammel 0-1
Tex-LA: Griffin 1-0; Chavez 1-0
Hst-Sea: Fiers 0-1; Gallardo 0-1
Interleague
Mil-Tor: Anderson 0-1; Stroman 1-0
Armadillosports.com
Wednesday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Angels (6-2) vs. Rangers
For the second straight game, the Halos erased a late deficit of five or more runs to capture victory away from the claws of defeat. On Sunday, the Angels came back from a six-run ninth inning deficit to stun the Mariners to pull out a three-game sweep. Last night, Los Angeles fell into a 5-0 hole against Cole Hamels and Texas, but the Angels plated three runs in the ninth before walking off in the 10th inning for a 6-5 triumph.
The Angels shoot for their fifth consecutive victory tonight behind Jesse Chavez, who pitched into the sixth inning of a 5-1 victory over the Mariners last Friday. The Rangers are currently 0-2 in Game 2’s of a series this season as A.J. Griffin allowed four earned runs in a 10-5 win over the Athletics last Friday and takes the mound this evening.
Coldest team: Braves (1-6) vs. Marlins
Atlanta closed last season with victories in 12 of its final 14 games to avoid a 100-loss campaign. The Braves haven’t carried over that momentum through the opening week by dropping six of seven games, including Tuesday’s 8-4 defeat to the Marlins. Atlanta’s pitching has struggled so far by allowing at least five runs in all six losses, while cashing the OVER in five of the past seven contests.
The Braves try to turn things around with southpaw Jaime Garcia on the mound, as the former Cardinals’ hurler gave up four earned runs in six innings of his Atlanta debut last Thursday against the Mets. Last season, Garcia allowed 10 earned runs in 9.2 innings of work against Miami in a pair of losses, including being on the wrong end of an 11-0 defeat at Marlins Park last July.
Hottest pitcher: Ivan Nova, Pirates (1-0, 0.00 ERA)
Pittsburgh looks to avoid the three-game sweep to surprising Cincinnati after the Reds plated 13 runs in the first two victories. Nova put together a terrific outing in his season debut against Atlanta by scattering six hits in six innings to grab a 5-4 home victory. The right-hander dominated the Reds in two home appearances last season, including a complete-game win last September, 4-1.
Coldest pitcher: Zack Wheeler, Mets (0-1, 11.25 ERA)
Although its only one start, Wheeler was knocked around by the Marlins in a 7-2 setback last Friday by giving up five earned runs in four innings. Wheeler hadn’t started a game since 2014, but beat the Phillies in two of three starts that season. New York goes for the sweep of Philadelphia after playing 14 runs in Tuesday’s blowout, as the Mets face Vince Velasquez, who is 1-9 in his past 10 starts since last July.
Biggest OVER run: Yankees (4-0 last four)
New York’s offense is starting to heat up by scoring a total of 15 runs in its last two victories, including a season-high eight runs in Monday’s home blowout of Tampa Bay. In four of seven games this season, the Yankees have posted at least five runs, while going OVER the total in seven of the last nine home matchups with the Rays. Southpaw Jordan Montgomery makes his Yankees’ debut this afternoon as Tampa Bay owns a 3-1 mark to the OVER the last four games.
Biggest UNDER run: White Sox (4-0 last four)
Chicago plated 11 runs against Detroit last Thursday, but the White Sox have scored eight runs in the last four games. Breaking it down further, six of those runs came in last Saturday’s victory over Minnesota, as the Sox have managed to score one run in each of their previous three defeats. Chicago’s pitching has actually been solid in spite of the inconsistency on offense as the bullpen owns a microscopic 1.33 ERA, while left-hander Derek Holland allowed two earned runs in six innings of his Chicago debut last Friday. Holland gets the start tonight against Cleveland as the Sox won four of six Game 2’s against Chicago last season.
Matchup to Watch: Dodgers vs. Cubs
The rematch of last season’s NLCS was delayed two hours due to rain on Monday, but Chicago raised its championship banner in a 3-2 walk-off victory over Los Angeles. The Dodgers have scored two runs or less in each of their three road defeats, while owning a 1-3 record against left-handed starting pitchers. However, Los Angeles has won three of four games against right-handed hurlers as John Lackey heads to the mound for Chicago.
Lackey won his season debut at St. Louis, 6-4 by tossing six innings and allowing four runs to cash as a -120 road favorite. The Cubs have won five of six since losing the season opener to the Cardinals, while hitting .210 against righties this season. Brandon McCarthy gets the ball for Los Angeles, as the Dodgers lost all three of his road starts in 2016, although each of these defeats came in the favorite role.
Betcha didn’t know: The Athletics own the Royals, especially in Kansas City lately. Last September, Oakland pulled off a four-game road sweep of Kansas City by outscoring the Royals, 43-12. On Monday, the A’s took care of the Royals again, this time in a 2-0 triumph to pick up their seventh straight win in the series.
Biggest public favorite: Indians (-245) vs. White Sox
Biggest public underdog: Rangers (+120) at Angels
Biggest line move: Pirates (-150 to -170) vs. Reds
Wednesday's MLB Game of the Day: Astros at Mariners
Covers.com
Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners
At least from the Seattle Mariners' perspective, perhaps the best part of playing seven of their first 10 games against the Houston Astros is the fact they only will have to see George Springer 12 more times - at the most - over their final 152 contests. The major-league home run leader looks to continue his early domination of an American League West rival Wednesday, when the Astros visit the Mariners for the rubber match of their three-game series.
Springer entered this season with 11 home runs in 45 games against the Mariners - his highest total against any opponent - with eight coming at the historically pitcher-friendly Safeco Field. The No. 11 overall pick of the 2011 draft has accelerated that pace dramatically in 2017 by clubbing four homers in six meetings with Seattle - including three of his four leadoff homers through his team's first nine games of the season, which is a major-league record. Springer's league-best fifth blast came in Tuesday's 7-5 victory, although Houston needed a four-run sixth inning to give it enough cushion to withstand another shaky ninth by closer Ken Giles. Seattle's struggles against the Astros - the club has dropped four of the teams' six meetings thus far - has it off to its worst nine-game start since the 2011 team also lost seven of nine out of the gate.
LINE HISTORY: The road team Houston Astros opened as -125 favorites and the line has yet to move. The total hit the board at 8.5. View complete line history here.
INJURY REPORT:
Astros - SP C. McHugh (Early June, elbow), SP D. Paulino (Out Indefinitely, elbow).
Mariners - SS J. Segura (Late April, Hamstring), RP S. Cishek (Late April, hip), SS S. O'Malley (Late April, appendix), RP S. Simmons (Out Indefinitely, forearm), RP T. Zych (10-Day DL, bicep), SP R. Whalen (10-Day DL, calf), SP D. Smyly (Late May, arm).
WEATHER REPORT: The forecast in Seattle for Wednesday evening is calling for cool temps and a chance of rain. The roof will be closed at Safeco Field.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Astros RH Mike Fiers (0-1, 1.50 ERA) vs. Mariners RH Yovani Gallardo (0-1, 5.40)
Fiers recorded a quality start in his season debut against Kansas City on Friday, yielding two runs (one earned) on five hits and three walks over six innings while extending his streak of not issuing more than three free passes to 35 consecutive starts. The Floridian posted a career-high 11 victories in 2016 in his first full season with Houston and was sharp in spring training as well (1-0, 1.98 ERA). Fiers picked up his only victory in three starts last year against the Mariners at Seattle, working six scoreless frames.
Gallardo took the loss in his season debut Friday versus the Los Angeles Angels, allowing three runs and eight hits while walking a pair over five innings on the road. The 2010 All-Star struggled last year in his only season with Baltimore (6-8, 5.42 ERA in 23 starts) and wasn't any better in spring training last month, going 0-2 with a 7.47 ERA in five exhibition outings. Gallardo has enjoyed more success versus Houston in his career than against any other team, however, posting a 15-5 record and 3.15 ERA in 22 starts.
TRENDS:
* Astros are 18-4 in their last 22 Wednesday games.
* Astros are 4-1 in Fiers' last 5 road starts.
* Mariners are 2-9 in their last 11 overall.
* Over is 7-1 in Fiers' last 8 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
* Under is 9-2 in Mariners last 11 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
* Road team is 6-0 in Dreckmans last 6 Wednesday games behind home plate.
WALK-OFFS:
1. Astros DH Carlos Beltran's RBI single in the ninth inning Tuesday pushed him past Joe DiMaggio (1,537) for sole possession of 49th place on the all-time RBI list.
2. Seattle SS/OF Taylor Motter went 3-for-4 with three doubles Tuesday in his first start at shortstop in place of Jean Segura, who was placed on the disabled list earlier in the day with a strained right hamstring.
3. Springer hit his 13th career leadoff homer Tuesday, tying him with Terry Puhl for second place in franchise history.
CONSENSUS: Early consensus on this matchup has 59 percent of the wagers on the road favorites Houston Astros and Under is picking up 58 percent of the totals selections.
Red-hot Cubs host Dodgers
By: StatFox.com
The Cubs will be going for their fourth straight win when they host the Dodgers on Wednesday.
Los Angeles is not playing very well right now, as the team has now lost three of its past four games. The Dodgers dropped the first game in this series against the Cubs, losing 3-2 on Monday. They have now scored two or fewer runs in three of the past four games and they will need to wake up offensively very soon. The Cubs, meanwhile, are on a roll right now. Coming into this game, Chicago has won three straight and five of its past six. The Cubs also happen to be 8-4 against the Dodgers dating back to last season, so they will be very confident in their chances on Wednesday. The starters in this game will be RHP Brandon McCarthy (1-0, 3.00 ERA, 4 K) for Los Angeles and RHP John Lackey (1-0, 4.50 ERA, 7 K) for Chicago. McCarthy was really lousy last season, but he turned in six innings of two-run ball in his only start of the year thus far. That’s a positive sign for the righty moving forward, and he’s hoping to bounce back in a big way this season. One trend that is worth pointing out in this game is that Chicago is a ridiculous 16-3 against the money line in home games versus teams that have a bullpen with a WHIP of 1.150 or better since 2015. As for injuries worth noting, 3B Justin Turner (Quad) is questionable for the Dodgers in this game. Other than that, both teams are relatively healthy coming into this one.
After struggling with injuries and going 2-3 with a 4.95 ERA last season, Brandon McCarthy has to be happy with his first start of the season. He allowed just two runs in six innings against the Padres in that one, and he should be aiming for something close to a quality start in this one. If he can turn in one of those then he will have done his job for Los Angeles. Offensively, one guy that will be excited to get out on the field on Wednesday is 1B Adrian Gonzalez (.304 BA, 0 HR, 3 RBI). Gonzalez hasn’t necessarily racked up numbers this season, but he is still getting hits and should find a way to go yard soon. Perhaps this will be the game, as Gonzalez is 7-for-20 with two doubles and four RBI against Lackey in his career. SS Corey Seager (.300 BA, 2 HR, 8 RBI) should also be able to get the job done in this one, as he thrives against righty pitching. The season is definitely young, but the 22-year-old is batting .375 with a homer and three RBI against righties this season.
The Cubs are on a tear heading into this game and they will be hoping that Lackey can lead them to a fourth straight victory. Lackey was solid in his first start of the year, allowing three earned runs in six innings against the Cardinals. He struck out seven batters in that game and will be hoping to be a bit sharper on Wednesday. Offensively, 3B Kris Bryant (.267 BA, 0 HR, 4 RBI) and 1B Anthony Rizzo (.172, 0 HR, 1 RBI) will both be hoping to hit their first homers of the year in this one. Bryant has not been quite as bad as Rizzo in the early going, as he comes into this game on a four-game hitting streak. Rizzo, however, has gone hitless in three of Chicago’s seven games thus far. The team needs him to get it going soon.