MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Wednesday, April 19th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Nationals @ Braves
Ross is making his first ’17 start; he is 12-10, 3.52 in 32 starts over the last two seasons.
Teheran 1-0, 1.89 in three starts this season (under 2-1).
Washington won five of its last seven games; four of their last five stayed under. Atlanta won five of its last six games; eight of their last 11 games went over the total.
Phillies @ Mets
Velasquez is 0-2, 9.00 in two starts this season (over 2-0).
Gsellman is 0-1, 10.24 in two starts this season (over 2-0).
Phillies lost five of their last seven games; under is 4-2-1 in their road games. New York lost their last four games, all lost by the bullpen; over is 7-3-2 in their last 12 games.
Pirates @ Cardinals
Cole is 1-1, 5.29 in three starts this season (under 2-1).
Wacha is 1-1, 3.75 in two starts this season (over 1-1).
Pittsburgh lost 2-1 the last two nights, after winning previous three games; under is 7-1 in their road games. St Louis is off to a 5-9 start, but won the last two; five of their last six games stayed under.
Brewers @ Cubs
Milone is 1-1, 7.00 in two starts this season (over 2-0).
Hendricks is 1-1, 5.73 in two starts this season (over 1-1).
Brewers won six of their first eight road games; under is 5-3 in their road games. Cubs lost four of their last five games; under is 5-3 in their home games.
Diamondbacks @ Padres
Greinke is 1-1, 4.32 in three starts this year (over 3-0).
Chacin is 1-2, 7.80 in three starts this year (under 2-1).
Arizona is 9-4 in its last 13 games; under is 5-3-1 in their last nine games. Padres lost their last five games; their last three games went over.
Rockies @ Dodgers
Anderson is 1-2, 8.59 in three starts this month (over 3-0).
Kershaw is 2-1, 2.95 in three starts this month (over 2-1).
Colorado won four of last five games; under is 6-1 in their last seven road games. Dodgers are 5-4 at home; their last three games stayed under.
American League
Chicago @ New York
Covey allowed one run in 5.1 IP (90 PT) in his first MLB start.
Tanaka 1-2, 8.36 in his first three ’17 starts (over 2-1).
White Sox won five of their last seven games; under is 9-2 in their last 11 games. Bronx won eight of its last nine games; they’re 7-1 at home. Four of their last six games stayed under.
Red Sox @ Blue Jays
Porcello is 1-1, 8.10 in three starts this year (over 2-1).
Liriano is 0-1, 9.00 in two starts this month (over 1-1).
Boston won its last four games; over is 3-2 in its road games. Toronto is off to a 2-11 start, 1-6 at home. Three of their last four games went over.
Tigers @ Rays
Zimmerman is 1-1, 5.06 in his first two ’17 starts (over 1-1).
Archer is 2-0, 2.21 in his first three ’17 starts (over 2-1).
Detroit won five of its last eight games; over is 4-2 in their road games. Tampa Bay lost five of its last seven games; over is 5-3 in their last eight games.
Indians @ Twins
Bauer is 0-2, 8.44 in two starts this month (over 2-0).
Mejia is 0-1, 5.14 in two starts this month (under 2-0).
Cleveland won three of its last four games; over is 5-3 in their road games. Minnesota lost six of its last eight games; five of their last six home tilts stayed under total.
Angels @ Astros
Ramirez allowed five runs in five IP (75 PT) in his first ’17 start.
Keuchel is 2-0, 0.86 in his first three ’17 starts (over 2-1).
Angels lost six of their last seven games; under is 8-1 in their road games. Astros won six of last eight games; six of their last nine games went over.
Rangers @ A’s
Perez is 1-1, 2.20 in his first three ’17 starts (under 3-0).
Hahn allowed three runs in six IP (98 PT) in his first ’17 start.
Texas lost four of last five games; their bullpen is already 1-5. Under is 4-1 in their last five games. Oakland lost four of its last five games; under is 6-3 in its last nine games.
Interleague
Orioles @ Reds
Jimenez is 0-0, 9.00 in his first two ’17 starts; Orioles scored 18 runs, won both games (over 2-0).
Garrett is 2-0, 1.42 in his first two MLB starts (over 1-1).
Orioles won four of last six games; over is 7-3 in their last en. Cincinnati lost three of last five games; three of their last four games went over.
Giants @ Royals
Bumgarner is 0-2, 3.43 in three starts this month (under 2-1).
Vargas is 2-0, 0.66 in his first two ’17 starts (under 2-0).
Giants lost three of last five games; they’re 3-5 on road (over 6-2). Royals won four of their last five games; under is 6-1 in their home games.
Marlins @ Mariners
Volquez is 0-1, 4.02 in three starts this month (under 2-0-1).
Hernandez is 1-1, 2.95 in his first three ’17 starts (under 2-1).
Marlins won four of last five games; under is 4-1 in their last five games. Seattle won four of its last five games; four of their last five games stayed under.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Wsh-Atl: Ross 0-0: Teheran 1-2
Phil-NY: Velasquez 0-2; Gsellman 1-1
Mil-Chi: Milone 1-1; Hendricks 1-1
Pitt-StL: Cole 2-1; Wacha 1-1
Az-SD: Greinke 2-1; Chacin 1-2
Col-LA: Anderson 1-2; Kershaw 2-1
American League
Chi-NY: Covey 1-0; Tanaka 1-2
Bos-Tor: Porcello 2-1; Liriano 0-2
Det-TB: Zimmerman 1-1; Archer 3-0
LA-Hst: Ramirez 0-1; Keuchel 2-1
Cle-Min: Bauer 0-2; Mejia 0-2
Tex-A’s: Perez 1-2; Hahn 0-1
Interleague
Balt-Cin: Jimenez 2-0; Garrett 2-0
SF-KC: Bumgarner 0-3; Vargas 2-0
Mia-Sea: Volquez 1-2; Hernandez 1-2
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
Wsh-Atl: Ross 0-0: Teheran 0-3
Phil-NY: Velasquez 2-2; Gsellman 2-2
Mil-Chi: Milone 0-2; Hendricks 1-2
Pitt-StL: Cole 1-3; Wacha 1-2
Az-SD: Greinke 0-3; Chacin 1-3
Col-LA: Anderson 1-3; Kershaw 2-3
American League
Chi-NY: Covey 0-1; Tanaka 2-3
Bos-Tor: Porcello 1-3; Liriano 1-2
Det-TB: Zimmerman 0-2; Archer 1-3
LA-Hst: Ramirez 1-1; Keuchel 1-3
Cle-Min: Bauer 0-2; Mejia 1-2
Tex-A’s: Perez 1-3; Hahn 1-1
Interleague
Balt-Cin: Jimenez 1-2; Garrett 0-2
SF-KC: Bumgarner 1-3; Vargas 0-2
Mia-Sea: Volquez 1-3; Hernandez 1-3
Umpires
National League
Pitt-StL: Under is 6-2 in last eight Cooper games.
Mil-Chi: Under is 8-3 in last eleven Guccione games.
Phil-NY: Four of last six Whitson games went over.
Wsh-Atl: Over is 12-2 in last 14 Gonzalez games.
Az-SD: Over is 3-1-1 in last five Randazzo games.
Col-LA: Over is 16-7-2 in last 25 Wolcott games.
American League
Tex-A’s: Road team won nine of last 11 BWelke games.
Bos-Tor: Five of last six Eddings games went over total.
Chi-NY: Four of last five Hallion games went over total.
Det-TB: Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Vanover games.
LA-Hst: Over is 11-2-1 in last fourteen Dimuro games.
Clev-Min: Under is 10-3 in last thirteen Porter games.
Interleague
Mia-Sea: Last six Wegner games stayed under the total.
Balt-Cin: Seven of last nine Bellino games stayed under.
SF-KC: Home teams won last five Tumpane games.
Armadillosports.com
Wednesday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Diamondbacks (9-4 past 13)
The Diamondbacks roll into the second game of their series at Petco Park on a three-game road winning streak. The outlook is rather bright for Wednesday's outing, as they have Opening Day starter Zack Greinke on the bump opposite Jhoulys Chacin. The Snakes are 2-1 with Greinke on the mound this season, and 10-4 in his past 14 road outings dating back to last season. In addition, they're 7-1 in his past eight road starts against teams with a losing overall record and 9-4 in his past 14 starts with four days of rest. On the flip side, the Padres have dropped five in a row, and they're also 0-5 in their past five tries against right-handed starters. Add in the fact the D-Backs are 5-0 in the past five meetings with the Fathers.
Coldest team Blue Jays (1-9 past 10, 1-6 at home this season)
It's a good thing the Maple Leafs and Raptors are in the playoffs and playing into April, as the Blue Jays are stinking it up on the diamond. They're 2-11 in 13 games overall, and they haven't been able to win more than one game in a row. Toronto is just 2-12 in their past 14 tries against right-handed pitching, and they're 1-7 in their past eight tries against divisional foes. In addition, Francisco Liriano hasn't been a stopped, as the Jays are 1-4 in their past five starts against teams with a winning team. It doesn't help the Jays are facing Rick Porcello, as the Red Sox are 4-1 in his past five tries against the Jays.
Hottest pitcher: Dallas Keuchel, Astros (2-0, 0.86 ERA)
Keuchel is starting to resemble the 20-game winner he was in 2015 when he brought home the American League Cy Young award rather than the left-hander who stumbled to a 9-12 record, 4.55 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 26 starts last season. The southpaw is 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA with just two solo home runs and eight hits over 21 innings. He has also posted a 1.15 BABIP and 0.62 WHIP, which is a complete 180 from last season. Sure, it's just three outings, but Keuchel looks like he has re-established himself as a stud. The Angels are just 1-5 in their past six road games and 1-6 in their past seven tries against Keuchel.
Coldest pitcher: Tyler Anderson, Rockies (1-2, 8.59 ERA)
Anderson has yielded four homers with 18 hits and six walks over 14 2/3 innings in his three starts. While it's excusable to have below-average numbers at Coors Field, he has also struggled in two outings on the road. Anderson has an 8.38 ERA in 9 2/3 innings over two road starts with a .325 opponent batting average. Facing the Dodgers and ace Clayton Kershaw isn't exactly the elixir to cure his ills. He allowed five earned runs, five hits and four walks over five innings in his first outing against L.A. back on April 9.
Biggest UNDER run: White Sox (9-2 past 11 games)
The 'under' has been the play for the ChiSox this season, especially against winning teams. The Pale Hose are 8-1 over their past nine outings against teams with a winning overall mark, and the under is 4-1 in their past five on the road. In addition, the under is 6-1 in their past seven against right-handed starting pitching, and 6-1 in their past seven road outings against teams with a home winning percentage over .600. The trend should continue, as the 'under' is 6-1 in Masahiro Tanaka's past seven outings at home for the Yankees.
Biggest OVER run: Orioles (7-2-1 past 10 games)
The O's are 2-0 in Ubaldo Jimenez's two outings this season, and the key to his success has been a ton of offensive support. Baltimore's offense has averaged 9.0 runs per game of support for Jimenez. He will face the Cincinnati Reds, an offense averaging 5.8 runs per game over the past nine outings. The over is 8-3 in U's past 11 road outings, and 14-6-1 in his past 21 games overall. The over is also 9-4 in the past 13 outings by Jimenez against teams with a winning overall record. Look for another high-scoring game like Tuesday's 9-3 series opening win by Cincinnati.
Matchup to watch: Twins vs. Indians
The Twins enter the third game of the four-game set looking to get into the win column for the first time against the Indians. Cleveland enters 8-1 in the past nine meetings, and they're 5-1 in their past six trips to Target Field. However, the Twins might have a good shot at victory with Trevor Bauer as the opposing pitcher. Minnesota has won four of their past five against Bauer. The Indians are also 0-4 in Bauer's past four outings, and they're 0-4 in their past four tries against left-hander starters. Minnesota rolls out Adalberto Mejia, a southpaw.
Betcha didn’t know: Chacin gets the call against Greinke and the D-Backs. He has had difficulty against All-Star 1B Paul Goldschmidt, going 4-for-13 with a home run. However, he has been surprisingly effective against the Snakes, going 5-3 with a 3.04 ERA in 14 career appearances (13 starts). Greinke has earned his salary when facing the Padres, going 8-1 with a 2.02 ERA in 16 career tries against the divisional rivals. He is also 4-1 with a 1.90 ERA in 10 career assignments at Petco. Wil Myers enters with a nine-game hitting streak, going 15-for-36 with two home runs and seven RBI, but he is just 3-for-23 in his career against Greinke.
Biggest public favorite: Dodgers (-280) vs. Rockies
Biggest public underdog: Tigers (+165) at Rays
Biggest line move: Padres (+135 to +120) vs. Diamondbacks
Dave's MLB Wednesday
By Dave Essler
Pirates/Cardinals: I cannot take the Cardinals with that bullpen. Perhaps F5 if at all. They won last night with four hits, and if the Pirates had bunted or had any execution in the ninth they'd have won the game.
Cubs/Brewers: Pissed for not firing the Brewers RL yesterday - I'm not sure what total they'll throw out but with Milone being a fly ball pitcher I'm inclined to like the over. IMO Hendricks over achieved too much last season and the Brewers already hit him this season.
Jays/Boston: You have to like Boston. I have to wonder if Liriano's success in the NL was in part due to having a pitcher bat, not a DH. Even back with the Twins his WHIP wasn't always that solid.
Phillies/Mets: Hard to think the Mets and that bullpen are doable, even before last night. Lean Phillies and over.
Rockies/Dodgers: I'll fade the Dodgers against any LHP. If you'd have taken the Dodgers RL every game Kershaw pitched last season you'd have gone 10-15 in spite of the their 20-5 record in his starts.
Miami/Seattle: The way the Mariners are NOT hitting I can't lay -150 even with Felix, so since the Fish haven't seen much of him and taking out the bullpens, probably F5 under.
Twins host sizzling Indians
By: StatFox.com
The Twins will be hoping to prevent a fourth straight loss when they host the Indians on Wednesday.
The Indians are playing some good baseball right now, as they have won three of their past four games to get back to the .500 mark. Cleveland exploded offensively on Tuesday, beating Minnesota 11-4. The Indians racked up 12 hits in that game, helping the total go Over for the fourth time in six contests. The loss for the Twins, however, marked their third straight defeat. After a hot start to the season, Minnesota has now lost six of its past nine games. The team will be hoping to get back on track on Wednesday, but that won’t be easy against the squad that represented the American League in the World Series last year. The starters in this Wednesday night matchup are set to be RHP Trevor Bauer (0-2, 8.44 ERA, 13 K) for the Indians and LHP Adalberto Mejia (0-1, 4.05 ERA, 4 K) for the Twins. Bauer is really off to a miserable start to the season and Cleveland desperately needs him to get back on track. One trend that suggest the Indians are in good shape here is the fact that the Twins are a miserable 10-26 against the money line after a two game span where the bullpen threw nine innings or more over the past two seasons.
The Indians are back to .500 and SS Francisco Lindor (.351 BA, 4 HR, 10 RBI) is on fire right now. Lindor is on a 12-game hitting streak coming into this one, and he had two hits and two RBI against the Twins on Tuesday. Look for him to keep up his hot streak on Wednesday, as he is really in a groove at the plate. Another guy that should be able to contribute in this one is 2B Jose Ramirez (.365, 4 HR, 15 RBI). Ramirez is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now, and he is currently second in the American League in RBI. This is not the type of matchup he should struggle in either, as Mejia is nothing special on the mound. As for Cleveland’s pitching in this one, Trevor Bauer should just be trying to earn something close to a quality start on Wednesday. He is off to a horrible start to the season, but he should be pressing to do too much in this one. If he pitches a solid game then this offense should be able to earn a win for the team.
The Twins are struggling after getting off to a hot start and they’ll be hoping that Mejia can get them back in the win column on Wednesday. In his most recent start, Mejia pitched five innings of one-run ball against the White Sox. He struck out four batters in that game, but he did walk three. He’ll need to be a bit sharper this time out, as he’s going up against a lineup that is full of guys that can do damage at the plate. Offensively, guys like 2B Brian Dozier (.241 BA, 2 HR, 3 RBI) and 3B Miguel Sano (.245 BA, 4 HR, 13 RBI) will need to make an impact on Wednesday. In order to keep up with the Indians, both guys will have to have their power on full display. Dozier has had a bit of a down year thus far, but he was not going to be able to replicate his numbers from last season.
MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com
Double-Play Picks
Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros (-185, 8.5)
The Angels ended their six-game skid Tuesday night in Houston against the Astros, but they face a much tougher task Wednesday night if they are looking to turn yesterday’s victory into a winning streak.
Los Angeles must contended with Astros’ ace Dallas Keuchel, who is looking like the pitcher he was two years ago when he went 20-8 with a 2.48 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP and 216 strikeouts on his way to his first Cy Young Award.
In three starts this season Keuchel has thrown 21 innings to the tune of a 0.86 ERA and a ridiculous 0.69 WHIP, while striking out 15. The 29-year-old left-hander has also been a problem for the Angels the last two seasons with the Astros winning six of his last seven starts against the Halos, pitching to a 2.44 ERA with 36 strikeouts.
To make things tougher on the Angels they have to start converted reliever JC Ramirez for the second time this season. Ramirez allowed five runs on four hits in his last start.
Pick: Astros -185
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres (+110, 7.5)
The Diamondbacks have been one of biggest surprises through the first two-plus weeks of the season, winning 10 of their first 15 games to sit in a tie for first in the National League West.
Arizona can thank their red-hot and balanced offense for their current perch atop the standings. The Diamondbacks rank first in the majors in runs scored per game at 5.2, while rankings fifth in batting average, ninth in OPS and second in stolen bases.
Additionally, they send Zack Greinke to the mound to take on the offensively challenged Padres. San Diego ranks 29th in runs per game and batting average, while sitting 26th in OPS. Grienke is 8-1 with a 2.02 ERA in 16 career starts versus the Padres.
Pick: Diamondbacks -133
Yesterday's Picks: 0-2
Season to Date: 5-5
For more FREE MLB picks and analysis check out our Free Picks page on Covers Experts.
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Jason Vargas, Kansas City Royals (2-0, 0.66 ERA, $240)
Jason Vargas is a veteran arm that many baseball people forgot about coming into the 2017 season. Before suffering a torn UCL in July 2015, Vargas was a valuable member of the Kansas City Royals' rotation. After making a few "feeler" appearances in September of last season, he is now 100 percent healthy and looking great.
Vargas has only allowed one earned run in a pair of starts this season and will face a tough opponent Wednesday night with Madison Bumgarner and the San Francisco Giants coming to town - but at least MadBum won't be in the lineup (or will he?). The Royals are +120 home underdogs.
Slumping: Rick Porcello, Red Sox (1-1, 7.56 ERA, $77) vs. Francisco Liriano, Blue Jays (0-2, 9.00, -$233)
We have a pair of slumping starters going head-to-head Wednesday night in Toronto with Boston Red Sox' Rick Porcello facing off with Blue Jays' Francisco Liriano. Instead of singling out one of these hurlers, we'll focus on both.
Porcello has made three starts in 2017. The Sox have actually won two of his three outings, but he's the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner so he will be held to a higher standard - even if Kate Upton didn't think he deserved the award. His first two starts of the season were average but his last start at home against the Tampa Bay Rays was a horror show (4.1 innings pitched, 8 earned runs, 4 home runs allowed).
Liriano had a really solid spring in Florida for the Jays and many were expecting him to build on those solid Grapefruit League outings once the regular season began. Well...that clearly didn't happen. Like everything in Toronto over the first three weeks of the regular season, Liriano has been really bad. Positive thoughts: his ERA is inflated based on a horrible 0.1 IP, 5 ER performance in his first start and he's coming off a solid 6.2 IP, 10 K start against the offensively gifted Baltimore Orioles, so he may be headed in the right direction.
Porcello and the Red Sox are -115 faves tonight with the total set at 8.5.
Monday’s Top Trends
* The New York Yankees are 6-0 in Mashiro Tanaka's last six starts vs. AL Central. Yankees -210 vs. White Sox
* The Toronto Blue Jays are 2-12 in their last 14 games vs. right-handed starters. -105 vs. Red Sox
* The Baltimore Orioles are 6-0 in their last six games vs. starters with a WHIP under 1.15. Orioles -115 @ Reds
* The Philadelphia Phillies are 1-10 in Vince Velasquez' last 11 starts. +105 @ Mets
Weather to Keep an Eye On
A pair of weather situations to keep an eye on for Wednesday.
Rain is expected all day at Target Field where the Twins are scheduled to host the Cleveland Indians. This one could be washed out.
In Kansas City, where the Royals will host the Giants, the forecast is calling for a mightly 15-20 MPH wind blowing straight out to left field. With a pair of solid lefties on the mound (Bumgarner vs. Vargas) both lineups will be loaded with right-handed bats. Current total: 8
Ump of the Day
Bill Welke: Welke will be calling balls and strikes for this afternoon’s game in Oakland between the A's and the Texas Rangers. If recent history means anything that bodes well for the Rangers. Texas has won 13 of their last 16 games with Welke behind the plate and, conversely, the Athletics have dropped their last 5 with the veteran ump wearing the pads. Oakland is currently -115 favorites with a total set at 8.5.