MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Wednesday, April 26th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Marlins @ Phillies
Chen is 2-0, 0.69 in two road starts this season; over is 2-1 in his ’17 starts.
Velasquez is 0-2, 7.20 in three starts this month (over 3-0).
Miami won six of its last nine games; their last four games went over. Phillies won their last four games; under is 5-2 in their last seven home games.
Cubs @ Pirates
Lester is 0-0, 2.66 in four starts this month (under 2-1-1).
Glasnow is 0-1, 11.12 in three starts this month (over 2-0-1).
Chicago won six of its last seven games; seven of their last eight games went over. Pittsburgh lost six of its last eight games; over is 7-2-2 in their home games.
Braves @ Mets
Teheran is 1-1, 4.30 in four starts this month (over 2-2).
Syndergaard is 1-1, 3.12 in four starts this month (under 2-1-1).
Atlanta lost its last six games; they’re 1-5 in series openers. Under is 5-1 in Braves’ last six games. Mets lost eight of their last nine games; over is 6-1-3 in their last ten home tilts.
Reds @ Brewers
Adleman allowed two runs in six IP (92 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 6-5, 11-inning loss to the Cubs.
Peralta is 3-1, 4.71 in four starts this month (under 3-1).
Reds lost six of their last seven games; they’re 5-3 on road. Over is 8-3 in their last 11 games. Milwaukee lost three of its last four games- over is 10-2 in its last 12 home games.
Nationals @ Rockies
Roark is 2-0, 4.38 in four starts this month (over 2-1-1). Nationals scored 26 runs in the four games.
Chatwood is 2-0, 2.40 in his last two starts; under is 3-1 in his ’17 starts.
Nationals won eight of their last their last nine games; they’re 8-3 on road. Their last three games went over total. Colorado won seven of its last nine games; three of their last four games went over.
Padres @ Diamondbacks
Cahill is 1-2, 3.93 in three starts this month (over 2-10.
Godley is making his first ’17 start; he is 10-5, 5.34 in 36 MLB games (15 starts). He is 1-1, 2.55 in three AAA games this year (one start).
Padres lost their last six road games; over is 8-2 in their last ten games overall. Arizona won nine of last ten home games; over is 10-2 in their home games.
Dodgers @ Giants
Wood is 0-0, 7.36 in two starts this month (over 1-1).
Cueto is 3-1, 5.25 in four starts this month (over 4-0).
Dodgers lost six of their last nine games (under 7-2)- they’re 4-7 on road. San Francisco lost five of their last six games, are 7-14. Under is 10-3-1 in their last 14 games.
American League
Astros @ Indians
McCullers is 2-0, 3.33 in four starts this month (over 2-2).
Bauer is 1-2, 6.35 in three starts this month (over 2-0-1).
Astros won ten of last 12 games, are 7-2 on road- seven of their last eight road games went over total. Cleveland won five of its last seven games; under is 6-1-1 in their last eight games.
Rays @ Orioles
Cobb is 0-2, 6.38 in his last three starts (over 3-0).
Bundy is 3-1, 1.37 in four starts this month (under 3-1).
Rays lost three of last five games; they’re 2-7 on road. Six of last seven Tampa Bay games went over total. Baltimore is 7-3 at home; six of their last seven games stayed under total.
Bronx @ Boston
Severino 1-1, 4.50 in three starts this month (under 2-1).
Porcello is 0-2, 7.79 in his last three starts (over 2-2).
Bronx lost five of last seven road games; they’re 7-3 in last ten games overall. Red Sox is 7-2 at home; their last five games stayed under the total.
Mariners @ Tigers
Paxton is 2-0, 1.78 in his four starts this month (under 3-1).
Norrris is 1-1, 3.71 in three starts this month (over 3-0).
Mariners are 2-10 on the road (over 5-2 in last seven). Detroit won its last three games; they’re 6-2 at home. Over is 5-0-1 in their last six games.
Twins @ Rangers
Santiago is 2-1, 2.22 in four starts this month (over 2-2).
Hamels is 1-0, 2.70 in his last three starts (over 3-1 in his ’17 starts).
Twins lost six of their last nine games; under is 6-1-1 in their road games. Texas won five of its last seven home games; under is 9-2-1 in their last 12 games.
Royals @ White Sox
Karns is 0-1, 7.71 in three starts this month (under 2-1).
Quintana is 0-4, 6.17 in four starts this month (under 3-1).
Royals lost their last six games; 10 of their last 12 games stayed under the total. Chicago won its last three games; six of their last eight home games stayed under.
A’s @ Angels
Manaea is 1-0, 2.45 in his las two starts (over 2-2 in his ’17 starts).
Shoemaker is 0-1, 5.40 in four starts this month (over 2-2).
Oakland won five of its last seven games; five of their last six road games stayed under. Angels won three of their last four games; over is 6-3-1 in their last ten games.
Interleague
Blue Jays @ Cardinals
Latos allowed four runs in five IP (85 PT) in his first ’17 start, an extra-inning win in Anaheim.
Martinez is 0-3, 8.04 in his last three starts (over 1-1-2 in his ’17 starts).
Toronto is 5-5 in its last ten games after a 1-9 start; under is 4-2-1 in their last seven games. Cardinals won six of last eight games; under is 4-2-1 in their last seven home games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Mia-Phil: Chen 1-3; Velasquez 2-3
Chi-Pitt: Lester 2-2; Glasnow 2-1
Atl-NY: Teheran 1-4; Syndergaard 2-2
Cin-Mil: Adleman 0-1; Peralta 3-1
Wsh-Colo: Roark 3-1; Chatwood 2-2
SD-Az: Cahill 1-2; Godley 0-0
LA-SF: Wood 0-2; Cueto 3-1
American League
Hst-Clev: McCullers 4-0; Bauer 1-2
NY-Bos: Severino 1-3; Porcello 1-4
Sea-Det: Paxton 2-2; Norris 1-2
KC-Chi: Karns 1-2; Quintana 0-4
Min-Tex: Santiago 2-2; Hamels 1-3
TB-Balt: Cobb 1-3; Bundy 3-1
A’s-LAA: Manaea 1-3; Shoemaker 2-2
Interleague
Tor-StL: Latos 1-0; Martinez 1-3
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
Mia-Phil: Chen 1-3; Velasquez 2-3
Chi-Pitt: Lester 0-4; Glasnow 2-3
Atl-NY: Teheran 1-4; Syndergaard 1-4
Cin-Mil: Adleman 0-1; Peralta 1-4
Wsh-Colo: Roark 2-4; Chatwood 0-4
SD-Az: Cahill 1-3; Godley 0-0
LA-SF: Wood 1-2; Cueto 0-4
American League
Hst-Clev: McCullers 0-4; Bauer 0-3
NY-Bos: Severino 1-3; Porcello 1-4
Sea-Det: Paxton 0-4; Norris 1-3
KC-Chi: Karns 2-3; Quintana 1-4
Min-Tex: Santiago 0-4; Hamels 2-4
TB-Balt: Cobb 1-4; Bundy 0-4
A’s-LAA: Manaea 0-4; Shoemaker 4-4
Interleague
Tor-StL: Latos 0-1; Martinez 2-4
Umpires
National League
Chi-Pitt: Under is 3-0 in Hickox games this season.
Cin-Mil: Over is 5-3 in last eight Whitson games.
Wsh-Colo: Six of last nine Foster games stayed under.
SD-Az: Over is 13-6 in last nineteen Woodring games.
LA-SF: Three of four Miller games went over this month.
American League
Hst-Clev: Three of four Scheurwater games this month stayed under.
Sea-Det: Favorites are 14-1 in las 15 Wendelstedt games.
KC-Chi: Under is 2-0-1 in Baker games this year; road team won his last six games.
Min-Tex: Under is 7-3-1 in last eleven Rackley games.
TB-Balt: Four of last five Little games stayed under.
A’s-LAA: Under is 6-2 in Layne’s last eight games behind plate.
Interleague
Tor-StL: All four Barry games this month went over the total.
Armadillosports.com
Wednesday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Nationals (8-1 past nine)
The Nationals bounced back from Monday's loss in style, outlasting the Rockies 15-12 on Tuesday. Washington's Trea Turner ended up hitting for the cycle while driving in seven runs and Daniel Murphy tied a career-best with five RBI in a game which looked more like a slow-pitch beer-league softball game rather than a Major League Baseball performance. The Nats offense continues to hum long, posting three or more runs in each of the past nine games, and 18 of their 21 outings overall.
Coldest team Mets (0-4 past four, 1-8 past nine)
The Mets stunk it up in a homestand at Citi Field, posting just one victory in six games, including a three-game sweep at the hands of the red-hot Nationals. The Mets have had a power outage during the past nine games, averaging just 2.89 runs per game during the span. Fans of the blue and orange were likely cheering when Mother Nature decided to intervene, keeping New York from another potential loss. Showers will be pulling out of Flushing in the AM on Wednesday, so Mother Nature won't be able to help. The good news for the Mets is the fact the Bravos are just as poor lately, going 1-8 in their past nine road games, 0-6 in their past six divisional games and 4-12 in Julio Teheran's past 16 appearances against divisional foes.
Hottest pitcher: Dylan Bundy, Orioles (3-1, 1.37 ERA)
Bundy was discussed as one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball for years. Now that he has arrived in Charm City he is living up to expectations in a big way. Bundy has posted 20 strikeouts over 26 1/3 innings in four starts with an impressive 1.37 ERA while holding to opposition to a .239 batting average. He also has a sparkling 0.99 WHIP so far. While his overall body of work is impressive, the Oklahoman is even more impressive at home. He is 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA with 11 strikeouts over 14 innings in two outings this season in Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
Coldest pitcher: Jose Quintana, White Sox (0-4, 6.17 ERA)
Quintana has lost each of his four outings this season, allowing five home runs, 12 walks and 24 hits over 23 1/3 innings for a dismal 1.54 WHIP. Opposing batters are hitting .280 against him, although he has been able to rack up an impressive 20 strikeouts. He has his best chance at a victory to date, as the Royals have dropped seven straight road outings, six games overall and nine in a row against divisional foes. However, K.C. has won seven of their past 10 against left-handed starting pitching, so that doesn't bode well for Q. The White Sox are just 4-17 in Quintana's past 21 starts against the Royals and 1-10 in his past 11 home assignments against Kansas City.
Biggest UNDER run: Twins (7-3-1 past 11 games)
The 'under' has hit in each of the past two games for the Twins down in Texas, both road victories for the Twins. They have had well pitched games from Ervin Santana and Phil Hughes, and they now turn to southpaw Hector Santiago to keep the ball rolling. The 'under' is 4-0 in Minnesota's past four against AL West teams, 5-0-2 in their past seven against left-handed starting pitchers and 15-5-1 in their past 21 games overall on the road. The under is also 4-0 in Santiago's past four road outings and 7-2 in his past nine assignments overall.
Biggest OVER run: Brewers (8-1 past nine games, 10-2 past 12 outings)
The 'over' has been a frequent occurrence for the Brew Crew lately, as they are either posting big offensive totals or allowing plenty of runs with poor pitching performances. So far it's been the offense doing the mashing to open their set with the Reds, averaging 10.0 runs per game in the first two of the series. Milwaukee has also allowed an average of 5.6 runs per game over the past eight outings which bodes well for the 'over' most nights. The 'over' is hitting for Cincinnati lately, too, going 5-0 in their past five, 3-0-1 in their past four and 4-0 in their past four vs. RHP. And the 'over' is 10-2-1 in the past 13 meetings at Miller Park, while going 4-1 in the past five meetings overall.
Matchup to watch: Rockies vs. Nationals
As mentioned, the Nationals and Rockies combined for 27 runs in Tuesday's slugfest at Coors Field. The Nationals have been ripped for 20 runs by the Rockies in the first two games in Denver. Despite the struggles at Coors, the Nats are still 7-1 in their past eight road games, 8-1 in their past nine games overall and 7-0 in their past seven road games against right-handed starting pitching. Washington is also 16-5 in their past 21 outings against right-handed pitching. The Nats have fared well with Tanner Roark toeing the slab, too, going 21-7 over his past 28 outings, including 10-3 in his past 13 on the road. The Rockies have won four of their past five at home, but they're just 2-5 in Tyler Chatwood's past seven home starts against a team with a winning record.
Betcha didn’t know: Johnny Cueto is looking to bounce back against the Dodgers on Wednesday night. He served up a grand slam last time out in Colorado, the first time he has allowed a homer with the sacks jammed in his 10-year career. If he bounces back he will need to buck a trend, as the veteran is just 5-6 with a 2.74 ERA in 13 career starts against Los Angeles. For whatever reason he rarely receives any offensive support when facing the boys from Los Angeles. He'll be opposed by Alex Wood, who is 0-2 with a 6.89 ERA in two career starts and four relief appearances against the Giants.
Biggest public favorite: Mets (-205) vs. Braves
Biggest public underdog: Nationals (+115) at Rockies
Biggest line move: Dodgers (+125 to +100) vs. Giants
MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com
Double-Play Picks
Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles (-140, 8 )
The Orioles send red-hot Dylan Bundy to the mound in hopes of taking the rubber-match of a three game series against the visiting Rays.
Bundy is finally looking like the prospect who was so highly touted for all those years in the Orioles organization. The 24-year-old right hander is 3-1 in his four starts this season, pitching to a 1.37 ERA and a .987 WHIP and the best part is he has gotten stronger as the season has gone on.
Bundy has given up zero earned runs in 13 innings pitched with nine strikeouts and two walks in his last two outings.
Meanwhile for the Rays, Alex Cobb has been struggling. The right-hander has had trouble keeping runners off the base paths, pitching to a 1.589 WHIP and a 5.89 ERA in his last three starts which has resulted in the Rays dropping his last three starts.
Additionally, Will Little will be calling balls and strikes in this one. The home team is 10-1 in Little’s last 11 games behind home plate when Baltimore plays.
Pick: Orioles -140
Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers (-150, 9)
The Twins will attempt to sweep away the Rangers when they close out a three-game series in Texas Wednesday night. Here’s hoping we don’t go to the well too many times in this series, but it’s hard to pass up.
As noted yesterday, the biggest problem for the Rangers this season seems to be their approach at the plate. They are not scoring if they aren’t hitting home runs and surprise, surprise, the one-run they scored in last night’s 8-1 drubbing was via the long ball.
Texas ranks fourth in the bigs in home runs, but are 28th in batting average and 16th in scoring. The result has been them going Under in 10 of their last 12 games.
Making things tougher on Rangers batters they face Twins’ lefty Hector Santiago. The 29-year-old has had a great start to the season, pitching to a 2.19 ERA with 17 strikeouts and four walks in his four starts this season.
Luckily for Texas, they send Cole Hamels to the mound. The veteran has pitched well this season, throwing to a 2.77 ERA and is coming off an eight-inning, three hit performance in a 3-1 win over the Royals.
Pick: Under 9
Yesterday's Picks 1-0-1
Season to date: 12-11-1
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Tanner Roark, Washington Nationals (2-0, 3.65 ERA, $155)
Tanner Roark isn't exactly the flashiest name on today's starting pitching list. How does the Nationals' big righty stand out from the likes of Hamels, Lester, and Thor? Consistency.
Roark hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in any of his four starts this season. He owns a Team W/L record of 3-1 with the one loss coming in his best outing of 2017 (7 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB) in a 4-2 Nats loss against the Phillies.
Ground balls, ground balls, ground balls. Roark owns a 5.75/1 GB/FB ratio over his last two starts - that sounds like a recipe for success when faced with a start at Coors Field.
Slumping: Vince Velasquez, Philadelphia Phillies (0-2, 7.20 ERA, -$317)
Philadelphia Phillies' starter Vince Velasquez is not the worst starting pitcher in Major League Baseball, but if you just look at his numbers over the last two seasons you might think that he is.
In 15 innings this season he is 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA and an Opponents On Base Percentage of .377. Those numbers are bad, but the really alarming numbers come to the surface when you look at his Team W/L record. He had a decent start to the 2016 season, but from July of last year until now the Phillies are 1-11 in games that have been started by Velasquez - that's a winning percentage of 8.33 percent over his last 12 starts!
Wednesday’s Top Trends
* The Tigers are 8-1 in their last 9 games vs. a left-handed starter. +125 today vs. Paxton and the M's.
* The Phillies are 1-11 in Vince Velasquez' last 12 starts. -105 today vs. Marlins.
* Under is 8-0 in the the Rangers' last 8 home games. Total today vs. Twins is set at 9.
* The Cardinals are 1-10 in their last 10 interleague home games. -190 today vs Blue Jays.
Weather to Keep an Eye on
After Tuesday's wild conditions in the Northeast wiped out a few games things look much better in that region today. Rain will impact the Kansas City Royals and the Chicago White Sox on the South Side of Chicago with a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and a 40 percent chance of rain. There will also be rain in St. Louis where the Cardinals are scheduled to entertain the Toronto Blue Jays - a 90 percent chance of rain with the possibility of thunderstorms means this one could get bumped.
There should be a nice hitter's wind today in Arlington for the Twins at Rangers game (10-15 MPH out to center) and in Cleveland for the Astros and Indians (10-15 MPH out to left-center).
UMP of the Day
Ed Hickox: Hickox has drawn the home plate assignment for tonight's game between the Chicago Cubs and the Pirates in Pittsburgh. In three games behind the plate this season, Hickox owns a 3-0 Under record and the Under has cashed in six of his last seven dating back to last season. In those three games calling balls and strikes thus far in 2017, Mr. Hickox has a runs per game average of only 5.0. Jon Lester should enjoy getting an extra four inches on the outside corner today. The total for the Cubs and Pirates is set at 8.
Struggling Giants host Dodgers
By: Zach Cohen
StatFox.com
Both the Dodgers and Giants can really use a win when the teams clash on Wednesday.
The Dodgers have a chance to get back to .500 on Wednesday and they will be feeling confident in their ability to do just that. Los Angeles is facing a San Francisco team that is really struggling right now, and the Dodgers did beat them 2-1 on Tuesday. Los Angeles has gotten some stellar starting pitching in recent games, allowing only four earned runs total over the past three games. The Dodgers will be hoping that LHP Alex Wood (1-0, 3.29 ERA, 14 K) can keep that going for them on Wednesday, as he’ll be making another start for the Dodgers in place of the injured Rich Hill (1-1, 3.38 ERA, 7 K). Starting for the Giants in this one will be RHP Johnny Cueto (3-1, 5.25 ERA, 19 K). Cueto has a good record this season, but he has not pitched the way he is capable of just yet. He’ll be hoping to figure it out in this start, which is the same thing that can be said for the whole San Francisco team. The Giants have dug themselves a major hole early on and know that they need to put together a winning streak sooner rather than later. One trend that does bode well for the Giants is that they are 10-0 against the money line versus teams that average 0.9 homers per game or fewer over the past two seasons when Cueto is on the hill. There are some significant injuries that are worth noting for these teams, though. OF Joc Pederson (Groin) and 2B Logan Forsythe (Toe) are on the DL for Los Angeles. For San Francisco, SS Brandon Crawford (Groin) is out indefinitely, and OF Denard Span (Shoulder) is questionable.
Alex Wood is going to be on the mound for the Dodgers on Wednesday and the hope is that he is now stretched out a bit more as a starter. Wood has not yet thrown 80 pitches in a single start, but that is something that Los Angeles is hoping he can begin doing shortly. The lefty has, however, been productive in his innings. He allowed one or fewer earned runs in three straight appearances before letting up four earned runs in 4.2 innings of work against Arizona on Apr. 21. If he can allow three or fewer earned runs in five or so innings of work on Wednesday then he will have done his job for his team. Offensively, three games that are worth pointing out in this game are SS Corey Seager (.312 BA, 3 HR, 15 RBI), 3B Justin Turner (.352 BA, 0 HR, 7 RBI), and 2B Chase Utley (.034 BA, 0 HR, 0 RBI). The three of them are a combined 24-for-72 with two homers and five RBI against Cueto in their careers. Utley, however, is no guarantee to be in the lineup for this one, as he has really struggled out the gate in 2017.
Johnny Cueto has had a rough season thus far, and one of his biggest issues has been control. Cueto has walked two or more batters in three of his four starts this year, and he has also given opposing hitters too many poorly placed pitches. Cueto’s control issues have forced him to groove some pitches over the middle of the plate, and that has caused him to give up five homers on the year. He’ll need to keep his pitches down and do a better job of attacking early in counts. One guy that should be able to provide some run support for Cueto is C Buster Posey (.360 BA, 1 HR, 3 RBI). Posey has done some serious damage against Alex Wood in his career, going 4-for-7 with two doubles and three RBI. It’d be big if he can have a solid day at the plate in this one. OF Hunter Pence (.312 BA, 1 HR, 9 RBI) will also be somebody to keep an eye on, as he is 3-for-6 with a double and an RBI against Wood.