MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, August 2nd, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Reds @ Pirates
Stephenson is 0-2, 7.45 in two starts, both vs Miami (under 2-0). Reds are 0-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-1-1

Williams is 1-1, 4.50 in his last four starts; under is 6-1 in his last seven. Pirates are 3-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-5-2

Reds lost six of last eight games; over is 6-1 in their last seven games. Pittsburgh lost five of last six games; under is 14-2 in their last 16 home games.

Nationals @ Marlins
Cole won 6-2 at Philly in his only ’17 start May 6, allowing one run in six IP (109 PT). Nationals’ first 5-inning record with him: 1-0

Worley is 0-2, 7.53 in five starts this year (over 4-1). Miami is 2-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-3-1

Nationals are 6-4 in last ten games; under is 6-2 in their last eight road games. Miami won five of last seven games; over is 7-2 in their last nine.

Dodgers @ Braves
Stewart allowed five runs in 3.2 IP in his only ’17 start, vs Minnesota. Dodgers’ first 5-inning record with him: 0-1

Teheran is 0-3, 7.41 in his last three starts; over is 7-4-2 in his last 13 starts. Braves are 2-8 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-8-3

Dodgers won their last nine games; under is 6-2 in their last eight road games. Atlanta lost four of last five games; under is 4-0-1 in their last five games.

Cardinals @ Brewers
Weaver allowed four runs in five IP (88 PT) in his first MLB start, a 4-0 loss to Arizona. Cardinals’ first 5-inning record with him: 0-1

Suter is 2-0, 1.80 in his last five starts (under 5-1). Milwaukee is 2-0 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-1-1

Cardinals won five of last eight games; under is 5-1-1 in their last seven games. Milwaukee lost four of last six games; under is 12-4 in their last 16 games.

Diamondbacks @ Cubs
Godley is 1-1, 5.30 in his last three starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight. Arizona is 5-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-5-1

Arrieta is 2-0, 2.79 in his last three starts (over 3-0). Cubs are 4-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-7-2

Arizona lost three of last four games; under is 3-1-1 in their last five games. Cubs won six of last seven games; under is 7-2-1 in their last ten games.

Mets @ Rockies
Flexen allowed four runs in three IP (69 PT) in his first MLB start, at San Diego. Mets’ first 5-inning record with him: 0-1

Chatwood is 0-4, 9.18 in his last four starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Colorado is 3-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-11-1

Mets lost five of last six games; over is 8-3 in their last 11 games. Colorado won seven of last eight home games; over is 8-5 in their last 13 games.

American League

Royals @ Orioles
Vargas is 2-0, 2.45 in his last two starts; over is 6-3 in his last nine. Royals are 7-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-6-2

Hellickson makes his Oriole debut here; he was 1-0, 6.05 in his last four starts for Philly. Under is 10-6-4 in his starts this season.

Royals are 10-3 in last 13 games; under is 8-2 in their last ten games. Baltimore is 10-5 in last 15 games; over is 8-4 in their last 12 home games.

Detroit @ New York
Zimmerman is 1-3, 6.23 in his last five starts; over is 5-1 in his last six. Detroit is 2-9 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-10

Tanaka is 1-2, 4.44 in his last four starts; under is 7-2-1 in his last ten. New York is 6-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-9-2

Tigers are 5-8 in last 13 games; over is 6-3 in their last nine road games. New York is 9-3 in last 12 games- four of their last five games stayed under.

Indians @ Red Sox
Bauer is 2-0, 2.77 in his last two starts; under is 7-3 in his last ten. Cleveland is 4-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-8-3

Porcello is 0-5, 3.92 in his last six starts (under 5-1). Red Sox are 4-8 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-16-2

Cleveland won nine of its last 12 games; over is 8-5 in their last 13. Boston won three of last four games; under is 14-4-1 in last 19 games at Fenway Park.

Mariners @ Rangers
Miranda is 0-0, 6.95 in his last four starts; over is 6-0 in his last six. Seattle is 7-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-7-1

Cashner is 3-1, 3.04 in his last four starts; under is 5-0 in his last five. Texas is 5-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-6-3

Mariners won eight of last nine road games; under is 7-3 in their last ten road games. Texas lost seven of last nine home games; under is 7-4-1 in their last 12 home games.

Rays @ Astros
Pruitt is 0-1, 5.63 in two starts this year (under 2-0). Rays’ first 5-inning record with him: 1-1

Keuchel needed 79 pitches to finish three innings in his first start back from the DL. Over is 5-2 in his last seven starts. Astros are 11-1 in his starts this year— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-1-2

Rays lost five of last seven road games; under is 11-6-1 in their last 18 games. Houston lost four of last six games; over is 9-2 in their last 11 games.

Blue Jays @ White Sox
Happ is 0-3, 7.71 in his last four starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. blue Jays are 2-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-9

Holland is 0-4, 9.64 in his last seven starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Chicago is 2-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-10-3

Toronto won six of last nine games; five of their last six games went over. White Sox are 3-14 since All-Star Game; under is 6-4-1 in their last 11 games.

Interleague

A’s @ Giants
Gossett is 1-3, 5.57 in his last four starts (under 3-0-1). A’s are 2-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-6

Moore is 0-3, 6.34 in his last six starts; under is 8-2 in his home starts. Giants are 3-7 in those home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-15-4

Oakland won three of its last four games; over is 4-0-2 in their last six. A’s are 5-11 in road series openers. Giants lost four of last five games, are 5-11 in home series openers. Over is 7-4 in their last 11 games.

Phillies @ Angels
Thompson blanked Atlanta for five innings (74 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 10-3 win. Phillies’ first 5-inning record with him: 1-0

Ramirez is 2-4, 4.84 in his last six starts; his last four home starts went over. Angels are 5-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-8-5

Phillies won five of last six games; under is 10-6-1 in their last 17 road games. Angels won three of last four games; under is 8-3 in their last 11 home games.

Twins @ Padres
Santana is 1-3, 5.93 in his last five starts; under is 4-2 in his last six starts. Twins are 7-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-6-3

Perdomo is 1-1, 9.00 in his last three starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. San Diego is 6-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-5-4

Twins lost seven of last eight games; over is 5-2-2 in their last nine games. San Diego won five of last six games; their last four games stayed under.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
Cin-Pitt: Stephenson 0-2; Williams 7-8
Wsh-Mia: Cole 1-0; Worley 3-2
LA-Atl: Stewart 1-0; Teheran 9-12
StL-Mil: Weaver 0-1; Suter 3-3
Az-Chi: Godley 9-5; Arrieta 11-10
NY-Colo: Flexen 0-1; Chatwood 7-12

American League
KC-Balt: Vargas 15-5; Hellickson 10-10
Det-NYY: Zimmerman 7-13; Tanaka 10-11
Clev-Bos: Bauer 10-10; Porcello 8-14
Sea-Tex: Miranda 12-9; Cashner 8-9
TB-Hst: Pruitt 1-1; Keuchel 11-1
Tor-Chi: Happ 4-10; Holland 6-14

Interleague
A’s-SF: Gossett 3-6; Moore 6-15
Phil-LA: Thompson 1-0; Ramirez 11-9
Minn-SD: Santana 11-10; Perdomo 8-10

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
Cin-Pitt: Stephenson 1-2; Williams 5-15
Wsh-Mia: Cole 0-1; Worley 5-5
LA-Atl: Stewart 0-1; Teheran 8-21
StL-Mil: Weaver 0-1; Suter 0-6
Az-Chi: Godley 2-14; Arrieta 6-21
NY-Colo: Flexen 1-1; Chatwood 5-19 (3 of last 3)

American League
KC-Balt: Vargas 5-20; Hellickson 6-20
Det-NYY: Zimmerman 8-20; Tanaka 9-21
Clev-Bos: Bauer 4-20; Porcello 7-22
Sea-Tex: Miranda 9-21; Cashner 4-17
TB-Hst: Pruitt 1-2; Keuchel 2-12
Tor-Chi: Happ 3-14; Holland 6-20

Interleague
A’s-SF: Gossett 0-9; Moore 5-21
Phil-LA: Thompson 0-1; Ramirez 10-20
Minn-SD: Santana 4-21; Perdomo 7-18

Umpires

National League
Cin-Pitt: Under is 3-0-1 in last four Miller games.
Wsh-Mia: Over is 5-0-1 in last six Cooper games.
LA-Atl: Five of last six HGibson games went over.
StL-Mil: Five of last six Carapazza games stayed under.
Az-Chi: Home side won eight of last ten Drake games.
NY-Colo: Last five Danley games stayed under the total.

American League
KC-Balt: Road team won five of last six Tumpane games.
Det-NYY: Under is 10-2 in last dozen Bellino games.
Clev-Bos: Over is 11-7 in Muchlinski games this season.
Sea-Tex: Under is 3-0 in Ortiz games this season.
TB-Hst: Four of last five Timmons games stayed under.
Tor-Chi: Underdogs are 6-4 in last ten Diaz games.

Interleague
A’s-SF: Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Torres games.
Phil-LA: Under is 8-3 in last eleven O’Nora games.
Minn-SD: Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Conroy games.

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 55-432 AL, favorites -$668
AL @ NL– 57-49 NL, favorites -$474
Total: 104-100 AL, favorites -$1,142

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 51-47-2
AL @ NL: Over 60-43-4
Total: Over 111-90-6

Armadillosports.com

Wednesday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Mariners (4-0 past four overall, 8-1 past nine road games)

The Mariners have won four straight games to get themselves right back into the wild-card mix, sitting 1 1/2 games back of the Royals for the final postseason spot in the American League with two months to go. Seattle is back in the black in run differential at plus-4, and they've improved to 23-26 on the road thanks to an 8-1 record over their past nine away from home. The M's have gotten themselves back into contention against the dregs of the league, going 5-0 over their past five road games against teams with a losing record and 5-1 over the past six inside their division. They have also fared well when Ariel Miranda is on the bump, going 9-3 over his past 12 outings against AL West foes and 4-1 over his past five road assignments.

Coldest team: Braves (0-6 past six games, 0-4 past four at home)

The Braves continue their home series against the high-octane Dodgers, and that's not good for their chances to snap their losing skid. Atlanta has dropped six in a row to fall well out of contention after an impressive run had pulled them within three games of .500. The Braves have won just one of their past six against NL West foes, they're 0-5 in their past five tries against a right-handed starter and they're are just 2-5 over Julio Teheran's past seven outings. They're also 4-9 in Teheran's past 13 tries against teams with a winning overall mark while going 6-22 across his past 28 home outings. In addition, the Braves are 1-4 over their past five home games against the Dodgers, while going 0-8 in Teheran's past eight starts against L.A.

Hottest pitcher: Jason Vargas, Royals (13-4, 3.00 ERA)

Vargas looks to help the Royals salvage their series and avoid the broom in Charm City before heading back home to face the red-hot Mariners for four. The Orioles have surprised everyone, taking the first two games of the series by a combined score of 9-3. The Royals have won 20 of the past 26 starts by Vargas while going 12-2 over his past 14 outings against teams with a losing overall mark. The Royals have also won eight of their past 10 against right-handed starting pitching, and they're a perfect 7-0 over their past seven games on a Wednesday, although that last stat can mostly be taken with a grain of salt.

Coldest pitcher: Matt Moore, Giants (3-10, 5.74 ERA)

Moore enters Wednesday's interleague home start against the Athletics looking to avoid his 11th loss of the season. He has served up 75 earned runs over 117 2/3 innings, fourth-most in the majors and third-most in the National League behind teammate Jeff Samardzija (76) and San Diego's Clayton Richard (80), two pitchers with one more start than Moore. Opponents are also hitting a robust .293 against Moore this season, with the Giants 3-9 over his past 12 outings and 1-5 over his past six at home. The Giants are also a dismal 7-15 in their past 22 home games vs. RHP and 5-12 in their past 17 overall against righties.

Biggest UNDER run: Brewers (18-6 past 24 overall)

The 'under' continues to cash on a regular basis for Milwaukee, hitting in each of their past four games and 18 of the past 24 (75.0 percent) outings. The under has also hit in six in a row at home, 5-0 in their past five outings at Miller Park against a right-handed starter and 21-7-1 in their past 28 overall vs. RHP. They're also 6-1 across Brent Suter's past seven starts overall and 4-1 in Suter's past five starts againts a team with a losing record. The under has been hitting for St. Louis on a regular basis lately, too, going 4-0-1 across their past five overall, 3-0-1 in their past four vs. LHP and 6-2 across Luke Weaver's past eight outings.

Biggest OVER run: Giants (12-5-2 past 19 overall)

There have been plenty of runs scored by the Giants, and against the Giants. As such, the over is 12-5-2 over their past 19 games, while going 5-2-1 across their past eight games at AT&T Park in San Francisco. In addition, the over is 7-0-1 in their past eight games against AL West foes while going 9-2-1 in their past 12 against teams with an overall losing mark. As mentioned, Moore has struggled overall this season, but oddly enough the 'under' is 7-2-1 over his past 10 starts at home. However, when these Bay Area neighbors get together there are usually plenty of runs, as the 'over' is 7-0-1 in the past eight meetings.

Matchup to watch: Rockies vs. Mets

The Mets and Rockies tangle in the middle game of their set with Chris Flexen making his second major league start. He got tuned up for four runs - three earned - and five hits with four walks over just three innings in his debut against the light-hitting Padres in San Diego on Thursday. Now, his second assignment is at Coors Field in Denver, facing a Rockies team averaging 6.29 runs per game, easily the most in the majors. Tyler Chatwood enters with a 6-11 record and 4.78 ERA over 19 starts and one relief appearance, checking in with 62 walks across just 107 1/3 innings, second-most free passes issued in the majors. Wednesday's game looks like a potential score-fest.

Betcha didn’t know: The Astros opened as the highest favorite on the board at -235, but that was quickly bet down to the -200 range despite a matchup of Dallas Keuchel against youngster Austin Pruitt. Overall, the southpaw Keuchel is 9-0 with a 1.94 ERA over 78 2/3 innings, but he was pounded for three earned runs, six hits and three walks in just three innings in his return from the 10-day disabled list in Detroit on July 28. The Astros haven't been able to finish up a series very strong lately, going 0-4 in their past four during Game 3 of a set. Tampa Bay has dominated the recent meetings, going 25-12 across the past 37, and the Astros are just 2-5 over Keuchel's past seven tries against Tampa Bay.

Biggest public favorite: Yankees (-230) vs. Tigers

Biggest public underdog: Athletics (+130) at Giants

Biggest line move: Rays (+200 to +235) at Astros

MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Minnesota (-115) at San Diego; Total: 8.5

The Twins and Padres wrap up their series with some day baseball on the West Coast. This will be a 12:40 p.m. local time start between Ervin Santana and Luis Perdomo. I doubt anybody has noticed, but the Padres are actually six games over .500 since June 21. They’ve been playing some quality baseball and the market has been siding with the Fathers a little bit more over that span than we would expect.

The Twins have gone in the other direction. Since May 25, Minnesota is 11 games under .500. Minnesota hit the All-Star Break at 45-43 and has gone just 5-11 in the second half. I had been looking for regression from the Twins and it seems to be there. What’s frustrating about this season is that I have correctly forecasted teams for regression or improvement, but haven’t been able to capitalize as much on a game-by-game basis when highlighting those games. Teams expected to struggle have, so if you’ve gone against them game after game, you’ve done well. If you pick and choose spots, variance may have caught you like it has me.

Anyway, a big reason why the Twins have fallen backwards is because regression started to hit Ervin Santana. Santana still has a great 3.37 ERA, but a 4.95 FIP and a 4.90 xFIP. Keep in mind that the three primary components of FIP – HR, K, BB – are not good for Santana. He’s got a well below average strikeout rate, a slightly above average walk rate, and has allowed 23 HR in 136.1 innings. He hasn’t allowed that many homers since 2013 and will allow more than 30 for just the second time in his career. Since June 14, Santana has a 5.63 ERA with a 5.79 FIP and a 4.84 xFIP. His K rate has increased, but he’s allowed 12 HR over his last 46.1 innings of work and his BABIP has regressed in a big way. Over his last 214 plate appearances against, opposing hitters are batting .345 on balls in play.

Luis Perdomo, much like yesterday’s starter Jhoulys Chacin, is what he is. Perdomo has a 4.76 ERA with a 4.24 FIP and a 4.03 xFIP. He’s an extreme ground ball pitcher with a GB% of 64.9 percent, so he’s subject to a lot of batted ball variance. He has a .344 BABIP against this season. Add in a high walk rate and a 67.4 percent LOB% and that’s how you get a 4.76 ERA. Perdomo has allowed 15 runs over his three starts since the All-Star Break with as many walks (7) as strikeout.

These are the types of games that I can’t figure out this season. Santana is in line for regression. Perdomo’s underlying metrics show that he should improve. His luck metrics, BABIP and LOB%, don’t indicate much good luck. I should be looking at the Padres. That would be my preferred side. Also, with two low-strikeout pitchers, I’d want to play the over under the assumption that a lot of balls in play means a lot of opportunities for hits which means a lot of traffic on the bases. But, this is also a getaway day game, with the Twins heading home after a long road trip. Generally speaking, that isn’t a good spot for an over.

In trusting the numbers and trusting the way I’ve had success in the past, I’m taking the Padres today and I may take a deeper look at the under.

Kansas City at Baltimore (-110); Total: 10

The trade that made the least sense at the MLB Trade Deadline was Baltimore’s acquisition of Jeremy Hellickson. He’ll make his Orioles debut on Wednesday night against the Kansas City Royals, who seem to have cooled off a little bit. Jason Vargas will take the mound for the Royals.

Bettors seem miffed with this game. Hellickson opened a small favorite, which was a tough number to put up. There has been a bit of movement on the Royals, but nothing yet to indicate that they will be the sharp side. I still think that they will be and I think this number will move in their direction.

The Regression Monster has paid Vargas a visit recently. His ERA is up to 3.00 with a 4.09 FIP and a 4.92 xFIP. Keep in mind that regression, relative to FIP and xFIP, is that a pitcher’s rest-of-season ERA should more closely resemble the FIP, xFIP, or even SIERA. It doesn’t mean that it will finish that way. It means that Vargas should pitch more like a 4.92 ERA guy the rest of the season, but not finish the season with a 4.92 ERA, if that makes sense.

Of course, it’s a bit different for him, because he doesn’t give up home runs at a rate that other MLB pitchers do. So, his 4.09 FIP and 4.80 SIERA are better indicators. Vargas gave up six runs in back-to-back starts on July 5 and July 17, but has now allowed just three runs on 12 hits in his last two starts, with just four strikeouts against three walks. These are guys that I can’t stand to handicap. Contact-based starters are open to a lot more variance than those that miss a lot of bats. Vargas has had a lot of favorable variance, as evidenced by a .283 BABIP and an 83.6 percent LOB%. Things like that are supposed to regress, especially the 83.6 percent LOB%. Vargas has given up six runs on three different occasions. Aside from that, he hasn’t given up more than three earned in a start. That isn’t supposed to continue, but it has. Handicapping is all about probability. The probability is that Vargas struggles the rest of the season, but that may mean he gives up seven runs in his next two starts, but one run today. You basically make an educated guess and hope to guess right. This year feels more like guesswork than others and Vargas is a microcosm of that for me.

Jeremy Hellickson was awful with the Phillies. He had a 4.73 ERA with a 5.51 FIP and a 5.39 xFIP. He has one of the lowest K% among qualified starters. He gives up a lot of home runs. The inept Orioles seem to think that those two things are a good fit in the American League and in Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Spoiler alert: they’re not.

It’s entirely possible that Hellickson, who hasn’t pitched in the AL since 2014, has success out of the gate with the league change. It’s also entirely possible that he doesn’t. I’d go so far as to say it’s likely that he doesn’t pitch well.

This is where the decision ultimately comes in. The Royals have been the better team. Vargas is the better starter, despite some of the red flags in the metrics. Baltimore’s biggest strength is hitting home runs and Vargas doesn’t allow many of those. They are a free-swinging lineup and Vargas induces a lot of weak contact, hence the low BABIP and the lack of damage to his ERA. As a result, I’ll go with the Royals tonight.

These are the decisions I wrestle with every day. Baseball is so unique in that it is a series of individual games within a game that decide an outcome. Football and basketball aren’t the same way. In baseball, it’s batter vs. pitcher. In other team sports, everybody has a job to do on each play or each possession. If one guy screws up, others can compensate. In baseball, that’s not really the case. It’s what makes betting baseball so hard, especially in a season like this.

Cleveland at Boston (-120); Total: 10

How do the Indians possibly bounce back from what happened last night? Cleveland had a 5-0 lead going into the bottom of the second and it evaporated. They grabbed another lead at 7-5, only to fall behind 9-7. Solo home runs from Carlos Santana and Francisco Lindor tied the game at 9. A wild pitch from Craig Kimbrel gave the Indians the lead. A chop single off home plate, a wild pitch on a swinging third strike, and then a cock shot of a fastball gave the Indians a 12-10 loss. It was one of the craziest games we’ll ever see in the regular season, complete with one of the best catches that you will ever see.

Chris Sale was awful. Carlos Carrasco was similarly awful. Andrew Miller, Cody Allen, and Craig Kimbrel all struggled. It almost epitomized the entire season in my eyes, especially as an Indians fan. Today is a new day. The Royals lost, so the Indians didn’t lose any ground with that debacle. The Red Sox gained ground on the Yankees. We all move on.

It’ll be Trevor Bauer against Rick Porcello. The lack of respect for Rick Porcello is duly noted in the betting market. The Indians are the preferred side of the sharp money today. Some of that may be because of Bauer’s 5.25 ERA with a 3.91 FIP and a 3.74 xFIP. Bauer has struck out well over a batter per inning this season. His home run rate is coming down, but his BABIP against still sits at .345 and his LOB% is 67.7 percent. Nobody’s really talking about it, but Bauer has only allowed three HR in his last 11 starts and has a 4.31 ERA with a 3.17 FIP and a 3.84 xFIP. His BABIP against is still .358, but his K rate is solid and his BB rate is passable, though a little bit high.

I took a bit of a deep dive into Bauer today. On batted balls with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher, he ranks 55th in batting average against out of 155 pitchers with at least 1,000 pitches thrown this season with a .575 mark. So, it’s high, but just outside the upper third in the league. He also ranks 10th in batting average against on exit velocities of 80 mph or lower at .290, so he has been a bit unlucky when he has induced weak contact. The hard part is figuring out whether or not some variance comes into play and he gets a bit more fortunate. It’s also worth pointing out that his percentage of batted balls in play at 95+ mph is 11th, so he has allowed a lot of hard contact this year. There’s no denying that. He has gone heavier with his curveball usage lately, so he is improving in terms of contact quality against. That merits watching with the big ERA and FIP/xFIP discrepancies.

The funny part about this game is that Rick Porcello rates about as badly as Bauer in terms of allowing hard contact. He’s allowed more balls in play, but Porcello is fourth in balls in play at 95+ with 160 out of his 453 batted ball events. Bauer has 301 batted ball events and 120 at 95+.

With all of this data in hand, the over certainly makes the most sense, given that high exit velocity contact and barreled balls usually leads to good things for hitters. As far as a side goes, I really have no idea. The Indians bullpen is pretty much tapped out, so Bauer is going to have to grit his teeth and carry the team deep into the game again like he did in his last start by going eight innings and over 120 pitches. That seems relevant to betting a side here.

Seattle at Texas (-110); Total: 11

Andrew Cashner is on the mound, so you know what I’m going to say here. At some point, we have to get some help with that, right? Right?! Bueller? Bueller?

Oakland at San Francisco (-130); Total: 8.5

Daniel Gossett and Matt Moore square off as the Bay Area Blowout goes from the worst park in baseball to arguably the best park in baseball. The A’s will lose the DH for the next two games at AT&T Park, which certainly weakens their chances offensively, but the fact that Moore is on the hill could be a big boost.

Since we’re digging into all the Statcast data today, let’s look at Matt Moore. Moore has allowed 161 batted balls of 95+ mph this season, which is the most in Major League Baseball. His percentage of balls at 95+ ranks fourth behind Robbie ray, Vince Velasquez, and Amir Garrett. His 36 barreled balls against are the most in baseball. Basically, Moore is very fortunate to pitch in a good park for pitchers, otherwise he’d be having an even worse season. It’s bad enough with a 5.74 ERA, a 4.69 FIP, and a 5.13 xFIP. Moore has a 4.38 ERA at home with a .268/.319/.444 slash against. On the road, he has a 7.23 ERA with a .309/.392/.574 slash against. Home/road splits are smaller sample sizes, so determining how significant they actually are is a little bit of a challenge, because a bad start here or there can really skew those numbers, but it’s pretty clear that a guy like Moore has pronounced splits like this for a reason.

Daniel Gossett hasn’t had much success in his nine starts. Gossett has a 5.74 ERA with a 5.50 FIP and a 4.35 xFIP. He’s got a 22 percent HR/FB%, hence the big ERA/xFIP gap. Gossett has five useful starts and four really bad starts thus far to open his MLB career. AT&T Park should positively affect him in a similar way to Moore, but we’ll have to see if that does happen to be the case. Gossett doesn’t miss many bats and that’s problematic for a guy that clearly has below average command at this stage of his career. What sort of saves Moore is that he has 100 strikeouts in 117.2 innings of work, so he can get a swing and miss at an opportune time.

This is one of those games that I really don’t like because I have to figure out which pitcher will suck less. One determining factor in my handicap, though, is that the A’s have not been good against left-handed pitchers this season. That gives the Giants enough of an edge for me to consider laying the price. Moore is bad, but the A’s don’t seem good enough in that split to take advantage. I’d take the home chalk if I was looking for late action.

MLB Picks of the Day
By Zabo Jones
Bangthebook.com

MLB Favorite of the day: Baltimore Orioles -112

The Orioles and Royals are going to be playing in Baltimore Wednesday night with Jeremy Hellickson and Jason Vargas starting. Hellickson was acquired by the Orioles at the deadline, in an effort to at least add some depth to a rotation that has been among the league’s worst. While it seems unlikely that the Orioles are going to make the playoffs, their decision to not sell probably tells us quite a bit about where the front office thinks the team may be.

Jeremy Hellickson has been a pretty strange pitcher throughout his career. From season to season, there aren’t too many pitchers who have been more inconsistent, while also being pretty reliable. He has thrown at least 146 innings every season of his career outside of his rookie year, and 2014. The problem is that his performance doesn’t always really justify a spot in the rotation, even at the back end. His ERA this season has been 4.73, with an xFIP of 5.38. This is strange to me largely because his stats aren’t that different from last season where he had an xFIP of 3.99. While his strikeout rate has dropped, his velocity has remained largely the same, and his zone ratings have not changed. Hellickson’s inconsistency does make me nervous, but I just see potential that he showed last season every time Hellickson starts.

Jason Vargas at one point in the season seemed like an obvious trade chip for the Royals. However, since April, the Royals have played exceptionally well, and right now occupy the second wild card spot in the American League. There was even a brief period of time when he looked like he could be a Cy Young candidate to some. The problem was that Vargas hasn’t actually improved from his past. His ERA is great, but the peripheral stats are identical to the past, and his velocity hasn’t changed. His strikeout rate is marginally better, but in 2017, whose isn’t? The Orioles are playing at home with a much better offense than Kansas City, so I like them a bit in this game.

MLB Underdog of the day: Cleveland Indians +114

The Indians and the Red Sox are going to be playing in Boston with Trevor Bauer and reigning Cy Young winner Rick Porcello starting. The Indians and Red Sox both stayed pretty quiet at the trade deadline, each adding only small pieces. This makes some sense for teams who have pretty safe chances at making the playoffs, and not an easily identifiable position of need.

Trevor Bauer for a little bit was getting cries from Indians fans to be moved to the pen, or sent down to Columbus. Those complaints have quieted down in his last couple starts, where he has been pretty good. Bauer has an ERA of 5.25, with an xFIP of 3.73. It’s not hard to find why there is such a harsh disparity between those two starts, starting with the .345 BABIP. That is a really high BABIP, and while his batted ball stats aren’t great, they aren’t Jered Weaver level of bad. Bauer was always going to start to play closer to his peripheral stats. It is worth noting that Bauer has the highest pitch per plate appearance in the MLB, which is obviously problematic, but at this point, Terry Francona seems fine allowing Bauer to throw 110 pitches per start. Bauer is a pitcher who I will probably continue to like throughout the season.

Rick Porcello is going to be starting at Fenway Park for the Red Sox. Porcello won the Cy Young, and while he probably didn’t deserve it, that proves that he was at least very good for the Red Sox last year. This year however, he looks much more like the pitcher that people remember from Detroit. He has an ERA of 4.55, and an xFIP of 4.33. The biggest difference between last year is almost entirely in the BABIP. In 2016 he had a BABIP of .269 last year, and this year it’s at .332. That’s clearly a function of the fact that he has allowed 40% of batted balls to be hit hard this year, compared to just 30% last year. While many people like to argue that BABIP is entirely random, the quality of contact has a significant impact. I’m not sure that this problem will continue, but ultimately Porcello has the same problems as Bauer without the same upside, so I like the Indians in this game.

MLB Over/Under of the day: Los Angeles Angels/Philadelphia Phillies Over 9

The Phillies and Angels are going to be playing in Los Angeles Wednesday night with JC Ramirez and Jake Thompson starting. Both the Phillies and the Angels are probably at similar positions in their rebuilding, even if it doesn’t seem like it. While Mike Trout gives the Angels a great head start, the Angels don’t have much money to play with after the Pujols and Hamilton contracts. The Phillies meanwhile have quite a bit of money to spend, and I suspect that they will put their hands into the 2019 free agent class.

Jake Thompson is going to be starting for the Phillies in what will be only his 2nd start of the season. Thompson however did spend quite a bit of time in the majors last season, with 53 innings, but Thompson is still something of an unknown. What I can tell you for sure is that projections do not like Thompson very much at all. Steamer projects him to have an ERA of 5.34, and a FIP of 5.46. His velocity isn’t very good, especially for a 23 year old, with an average fastball velocity of 91. Overall, I don’t think Thompson will ever be a great pitcher in the majors. I also don’t love the upside of JC Ramirez, so I would feel pretty good about the over in this game.

Red Sox host Indians
By: StatFox.com

After an exciting 12-10 victory over the Indians on Tuesday, the Sox will be right back at it and going for a sweep over Cleveland on Wednesday.

With Carlos Carrasco and Chris Sale on the mound on Tuesday, most people were expecting a very low-scoring game between the Indians and the Sox. Those teams clearly had different plans, as they combine to score 22 runs. The game ended in crazy fashion, as the Indians score two runs to take a 10-9 lead in the top of the ninth and then the Red Sox came back to score three on a walk-off homer by Christian Vasquez in the bottom of the ninth. Cleveland has now lost three straight games coming into this one, and Boston has won three of its past four. All of the talk after the trade deadline was about the Yankees, but the Sox currently sit atop the AL East standings. The starters on Wednesday are set to be RHP Trevor Bauer (9-8, 5.25 ERA, 117 K) for Cleveland and RHP Rick Porcello (4-14, 4.55 ERA, 126 K) for Boston. Both guys have been pretty miserable this season, so it would not be shocking if this were a high-scoring affair. One trend that does stand out in this one is that Boston is 17-26 against the money line after having won two of its past three games this season. Cleveland, meanwhile, is also a lousy 5-10 against the money line when the total is 10 or higher on the year.

The Indians have lost two straight to the Sox and they are now going to attempt to avoid a sweep on Wednesday. Trevor Bauer is going to be on the mound for the Indians and the righty is actually coming off of one of his best starts of the season. Bauer faced the Angels in that outing on Jul. 27, and he allowed only one earned run in eight innings of work. Bauer struck out six in that game and also walked only one. If he can be on point with his control in this game then the Indians will have a good shot to get back into the win column. On offense, two guys to watch out for in this game are 1B Carlos Santana (.249 BA, 15 HR, 58 RBI) and DH Edwin Encarnacion (.255 BA, 22 HR, 62 RBI). The two of them have really had some success against Rick Porcello in their careers, combining to go 25-for-81 with seven doubles, six homers, and 14 RBI against the righty. They’ll be hoping to keep that up when they face him in this one.

The Red Sox are playing very well right now, but they’ll need Rick Porcello to be a lot better moving forward. The righty was their best starter a year ago and the Sox need to be able to rely on him if they are to make it to the postseason. Porcello has been a bit better as of late, allowing three or fewer earned runs in four of his past five starts. It’s just a matter of him consistently doing it. On offense, a number of different Boston starters can come through in this game. 3B Eduardo Nunez (.321 BA, 6 HR, 40 RBI) is, however, somebody to really keep an eye on in this one. Since being acquired by the Red Sox, Nunez is batting .500 with two homers and nine RBI in five games. He is really seeing the ball well and also clearly seems to be enjoying playing games that actually matter. If he can keep it up then that would be huge for this lineup.