MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, August 30th, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Braves @ Phillies
Dickey is 2-1, 3.66 in his last five starts (under 4-1). Dickey is 1-0, 1.29 in two starts vs Philly this season. Atlanta is 4-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-9-4.

Teheran is 1-1, 3.10 in his last three starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. He is 0-2, 12.10 in two starts vs Philly this year. Atlanta is 7-5 in his road starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 11-10-5

Leiter is 2-2, 4.45 in five starts this year (under 3-1-1). Phillies are 1-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-3

Eickhoff is 2-0, 3.80 in his last four starts; over is 5-3 in his last eight. He is 1-1, 4.15 in four starts vs Atlanta this year. Phillies are 6-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-10-3

Braves lost four of last five games; over is 6-3 in their last nine road games. Phillies are 6-4 in last ten games; over is 8-5-1 in their last 14 games.

Marlins @ Nationals
Conley is 2-0, 4.42 in his last three starts (over 11-3). Miami is 4-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-4-3

Strasburg is 1-1, 1.29 in his last four starts (under 3-1). Nationals are 7-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-9-1

Marlins are 13-5 in last 18 games, but lost last two; over is 6-1 in their last seven games. Washington is 13-6 in its last 19 games; their last five games went over.

Mets @ Reds
Montero is 1-1, 3.12 in his last three starts; under is 8-1 in his last nine. Mets are 2-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-8-2

Bailey is 1-1, 9.53 in his last four starts; his last six starts went over. Reds are 0-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-7-1

Mets are 4-12 in their last 16 games; their last four games went over. Cincinnati lost five of last eight games; under is 3-2 in their last five games.

Cardinals @ Brewers
Martinez is 3-0, 3.21 in his last four starts; over is 8-3 in his last 11. He is 1-2, 4.58 vs Milwaukee this season. Cardinals are 5-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-11-2

Anderson is 5-2, 1.56 in his last nine starts (under 7-2). He is 0-0, 4.22 in two starts vs St Louis this year. Brewers are 4-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-5-2

Cardinals lost six of last nine games; over is 8-1-1 in their last ten road games. Milwaukee won four of their last five home games; eight of their last nine games stayed under.

Pirates @ Cubs
Nova is 1-3, 7.04 in his last four starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five. He is 2-0, 3.29 against the Cubs this year. Pirates are 4-10 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-14-1

Quintana is 2-2, 5.73 in his last four starts (under 5-3). Cubs are 3-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-4-2

Pirates are 5-12 in last 17 games; under is 4-0 in their last four games. Cubs won three of last four games; under is 4-1-1 in their last six games.

Dodgers @ Diamondbacks
Ryu is 2-0, 1.57 in his last four starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Dodgers are 3-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-9-3

Ray is 2-1, 3.42 in his last five starts, last three of which stayed under. He is 1-0, 4.15 in three starts vs Los Angeles this season. Arizona is 5-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-5-7

Dodgers are 4-5 in their last nine games; five of their last six games stayed under. Arizona won seven of last eight games; four of their last six games stayed under.

Giants @ Padres
Blach is 0-3, 8.82 in his last three starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. He is 0-1, 3.21 in two starts against the Padres this year. SF is 3-6 in his road starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 11-10-1

Wood is 2-1, 5.45 in six starts for San Diego (over 4-2). Padres are 3-0 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-3-1

Giants are 4-14 in last 18 road games; seven of their last nine games overall stayed under. Padres are 2-5 in their last seven games; under is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games overall.

American League

Indians @ New York
Bauer is 6-0, 2.58 in his last seven starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six. Cleveland is 6-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-8-3

Tomlin is 3-0, 2.59 in his last four starts, last three of which went over. Indians 5-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-10-4

Garcia is 0-1, 7.32 in four starts for New York (under 3-1). New York won his only home start— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-3-1

Montgomery is 0-1, 4.50 in his last four starts; under is 5-1 in his last six starts. New York is 5-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-10-3

Indians are 14-4 in their last 18 games; under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 road games. New York is 9-5 in its last 14 games; under is 8-3 in their last 11 home games.

Mariners @ Orioles
Miranda is 1-1, 6.05 in his last four starts; over is 8-3 in his last 11 starts. Seattle is 10-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-11-1

Jimenez is 0-2, 8.59 in his last three starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. Orioles are 6-4 in his home starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 8-11-2

Mariners are 3-6 in last nine games; under is 9-7 in their last 16 games. Orioles won seven of last eight games; seven of their last ten games stayed under.

Red Sox @ Blue Jays
Porcello is 4-1, 6.83 in his last five starts (over 4-1). Boston scored 35 runs in the five games. Red Sox are 2-5 in his last seven road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-17-2

Happ is 0-2, 8.18 in his last two starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Toronto is 4-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-11

Boston lost four of its last six games; under is 7-4 in its last 11 games. Blue Jays lost nine of last 11 games; under is 10-3 in their last 13 home games.

White Sox @ Twins
Holland is 2-4, 8.77 in his last six starts; over is 7-3 in his last ten. He is 0-3, 11.19 against the Twins this season. White Sox lost his last six road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-13-3

Berrios is 1-1, 6.97 in his last four starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. He is 1-1, 4.73 vs Chicago this year. Twins are 7-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-6-2

White Sox won four of last six games; six of their last seven games stayed under. Minnesota won its last five home games; under is 5-2 in their last seven games overall.

Rays @ Royals
Odorizzi is 0-3, 7.27 in his last four starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Tampa Bay is 4-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-9-4

Vargas is 1-4, 7.11 in his last five starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Kansas City is 8-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-10-2

Tampa Bay won six of last nine games; over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games. Royals lost five of their last six games; under is 4-3-1 in their last eight games.

Rangers vs Astros (@ St Petersburg)
Cashner is 0-1, 4.34 in his last three starts; under is 8-1 in his last nine starts. He is 0-4, 5.48 vs Houston this year. Texas is 4-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-6-3

Keuchel is 2-0, 1.74 in his last three starts; over is 7-5 in his last 12. He is 2-0, 0.71 vs Texas this season. Astros are 5-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-5-2

This is series is in the Trop where the Rays normally play. Rangers lost four of last six games (over 5-1). Houston won three of last five games; under is 7-3 in their last ten games.

A’s @ Angels
Graveman is 2-1, 2.25 in his last three starts (under 7-6). He is 0-1, 2.77 in two starts against the Angels this year. A’s are 1-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-5-5

Bridwell is 2-1, 2.88 in his last four starts; under is 8-1 in his last nine. Angels are 5-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-2-3

A’s are 2-6 in last eight road games; under is 7-4 in their last 11 games. Angels won three of last four games; under is 10-6 in their last 16.

Interleague

Tigers @ Rockies
Verlander is 4-1, 2.14 in his last six starts; under is 6-3-1 in his last ten starts. Detroit is 1-9 in his last ten road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-12-5

Bettis is 1-1, 3.79 in three starts this season (under 3-0). Rockies split his two home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-2-1

Tigers are 4-11 in last 15 games; their last five games stayed under. Colorado won four of its last six games; under is 5-1 in their last six games.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
Atl-Phil: Dickey 13-12 Teheran 11-15; Leiter 3-2 Eickhoff 8-15
Mia-Wsh: Conley 8-6; Strasburg 16-6
NY-Cin: Montero 4-8; Bailey 4-8
StL-Mil: Martinez 13-13; Anderson 9-9
Pitt-Chi: Nova 13-13; Quintana 4-4 (10-8 )
SF-SD: Blach 9-13; Wood 3-3
LA-Az: Ryu 11-8; Ray 13-8

American League
Clev-NY: Bauer 14-11 Tomlin 8-12; Garcia 2-2 Montgomery 9-14
Sea-Balt: Miranda 15-11; Jimenez 10-11
Bos-Tor: Porcello 12-15; Happ 7-12
Chi-Min: Holland 8-17; Berrios 11-8
Tex-Hst: Cashner 10-11; Keuchel 13-4
TB-KC: Odorizzi 8-14; Vargas 16-9
A’s-LAA: Graveman 6-7; Bridwell 11-2

Interleague
Det-Colo: Verlander 12-15; Bettis 1-2

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
Atl-Phil: Dickey 13-12 Teheran 8-26; Leiter 3-2 Eickhoff 9-23
Mia-Wsh: Conley 6-14; Strasburg 4-22
NY-Cin: Montero 3-12; Bailey 7-12
StL-Mil: Martinez 11-26; Anderson 5-18
Pitt-Chi: Nova 8-26; Quintana 7-25
SF-SD: Blach 7-22; Wood 2-6
LA-Az: Ryu 7-19; Ray 8-21

American League
Clev-NY: Bauer 14-11 Tomlin 6-20; Garcia 2-2 Montgomery 5-23
Sea-Balt: Miranda 12-26; Jimenez 7-21
Bos-Tor: Porcello 8-25; Happ 4-19
Chi-Min: Holland 7-25; Berrios 5-19
Tex-Hst: Cashner 6-21; Keuchel 4-17
TB-KC: Odorizzi 7-22; Vargas 6-25
A’s-LAA: Graveman 7-11; Bridwell 1-13

Interleague
Det-Colo: Verlander 7-27; Bettis 1-3

Umpires

National League
Atl-Phil: Four of last five Carapazza games went over. Over is 4-1-1 in last six Cuzzi games.
Mia-Wsh: Under is 4-1-1 in last six Holbrook games.
NY-Cin: Four of last six Blakney games went over.
StL-Mil: Home team is 17-2 in last 19 Barksdale games.
Pitt-Chi: Three of last four Cederstrom games went over.
SF-SD: Under is 3-0-1 in last four Marquez games.
LA-Az: Road team won five of last six Diaz games.

American League
Clev-NY: Over is 10-3 in last thirteen Hoberg games. Four of last five Randazzo games went over.
Sea-Balt: Favorites won 10 of last 12 Carlson games.
Bos-Tor: Over is 7-3 in Barber games this season.
Chi-Min: Under is 6-2 in last eight Barry games.
Tex-Hst: Over is 9-4 in last thirteen Wegner games.
TB-KC: Over is 4-0-1 in last five BWelke games.
A’s-LAA: Over is 7-5 in last dozen Muchlinski games.

Interleague
Det-Colo: Favorites won last five Dreckman games.

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 76-55 AL, favorites +$103
AL @ NL– 71-64 NL, favorites +$279
Total: 140-126 AL, favorites +$382

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 65-65-3
AL @ NL: Over 71-58-7
Total: Over 136-123-10

Armadillosports.com

Wednesday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Orioles (6-0 last six) vs. Mariners

Baltimore hasn’t made the playoffs in consecutive seasons since the early 1970’s, but the O’s are making a run at a Wild Card berth for the second straight year. The O’s stand 1 ½ games behind the Twins for the second Wild Card spot in the American League after blanking the Mariners on Tuesday, 4-0 behind Dylan Bundy’s complete game one-hitter. Baltimore’s pitching, which has been shaky all season, has stepped up at the right time by allowing three runs or fewer in four of the past five games.

Ubaldo Jimenez gets the ball this afternoon for Baltimore as the O’s go for the sweep of the slumping Mariners. Jimenez has gone backwards recently as Baltimore is winless in past three starts, including allowing six earned runs in 4.1 innings of a 7-6 defeat at Seattle on August 16.

Coldest team: Blue Jays (2-9 last 11) vs. Red Sox

The Orioles lost to Toronto in the AL Wild Card game last season, but it doesn’t look like the Jays will make an appearance in the 2017 postseason. Toronto fell to 1-4 on its homestand after getting blanked by Chris Sale and Boston on Tuesday, while being held to two runs or fewer for the fourth time in the past six games.

J.A. Happ will try to stop the bleeding for the Blue Jays as they attempt to avoid the sweep. Happ has been knocked around of late by giving up five earned runs in each of his past two starts, while picking up a no-decision in a 5-4 setback at Boston on July 18 in spite of allowing just two solo homers in five innings of work.

Hottest pitcher: Parker Bridwell, Angels (7-2, 2.89 ERA)

Even though Bridwell took a defeat in his last start against the Astros, 2-1, the right-hander has yielded two earned runs or less in eight of his past nine trips to the mound. Seven of Bridwell’s last nine outings have been decided by one run, as taking him to win on the run-line may not be the smartest play. Bridwell isn’t a high strikeout pitcher, but finds way to get the most of out of his pitches by tossing at least six innings in 10 starts this season.

Coldest pitcher: Homer Bailey, Reds (4-6, 7.99 ERA)

The Mets won all six matchups with the Reds last season, but Cincinnati took no mercy in a 14-4 pounding of New York on Tuesday. Now, the Reds shoot for consecutive home victories for only the third time since the All-Star break. Bailey has struggled since picking up back-to-back road wins at Colorado and Arizona in July as the Reds have compiled a 2-6 mark in his past eight starts.

Biggest OVER run: Rangers (5-2 last seven)

Texas and Houston needed to travel to St. Petersburg for its series following the devastating effects of Hurricane Harvey. The Rangers bounced back after getting swept by the Athletics this past weekend by scoring 12 runs in a 12-2 blowout of the Astros on Tuesday. Texas put together 10 runs in the previous four games, as the offense needed to bust out, while allowing eight runs in each of the last two losses at Oakland. Andrew Cashner heads to the hill at Tropicana Field as the Rangers had cashed the UNDER in eight straight starts prior to an OVER in his last appearance against the Angels last Wednesday.

Biggest UNDER run: Pirates (6-1 last seven)

Pittsburgh’s offense continues to scuffle as the Bucs were held to one run for the third time in four games. The Pirates were stymied by Jake Arrieta and the Cubs in a 4-1 loss at Wrigley Field last night, while getting outscored in the first two games at Chicago, 10-2. Pittsburgh is in the midst of a 28-game stretch against division opponents, as the Pirates have started 2-3, while losing 12 of its past 17 games overall. Ivan Nova heads to the mound at Wrigley tonight as the righty is winless in his previous five road starts, but his last away victory came at Chicago on July 8.

Matchup to watch: Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks

Arizona jumped to a 5-0 advantage in the first inning against Los Angeles on Tuesday before the Dodgers cut the deficit to 5-4. The D-backs held on for a 7-6 triumph to improve to 7-1 in its past eight home series openers, while sending the Dodgers to their third loss in a row. Los Angeles hasn’t suffered three consecutive defeats since early June, while not going through a four-game losing streak at all this season.

Hyun-Jin Ryu tries to end the Dodgers’ recent woes as the southpaw is unbeaten in his past six trips to the mound. Ryu has pitched especially well on the road since allowing 10 runs at Colorado in early May as he has yielded a total of eight runs in his past six outings away from Chavez Ravine. Ryu hasn’t faced Arizona since the 2014 season, as the Dodgers won all three meetings started by the left-hander.

Robbie Ray counters for Arizona, as the fire-baller is making his second start since getting drilled in the head by a line-drive at St. Louis on July 28. Ray responded well in his first outing since the injury by tossing five innings of two-hit ball in a 3-2 victory over the Mets as a -140 road favorite. The left-hander has lost his last two starts at Chase Field, but has recorded 29 strikeouts in three starts against the Dodgers this season.

Betcha didn’t know: The Twins are heavy favorites against the White Sox for the second straight night, as Jose Berrios will be happy to pitch at home. Minnesota is 0-7 in his past seven road starts, but the Twins are 6-0 in his previous six home outings, including a 4-2 victory over Chicago on June 21.

Biggest public favorite: Twins (-220) vs. White Sox

Biggest public underdog: Brewers (+110) vs. Cardinals

Biggest line move: Padres (-120 to -130) vs. Giants

MLB Betting Picks & Tips
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

St. Louis (-120) at Milwaukee; Total: 9

Carlos Martinez and Chase Anderson meet in a big one for both teams on Wednesday afternoon. The Brewers trail by three in the Wild Card standings and 2.5 in the NL Central. They need to find a way to grab this one against a St. Louis team that isn’t out of the hunt yet. The Cardinals have their ace on the mound and the Brewers are hoping that one of their top arms can return to his pre-DL form.

Carlos Martinez is having a strong year. The right-hander has a 3.48 ERA with a 3.85 FIP and a 3.61 xFIP. He’s given up a few more dingers this year, but he’s also struck out 175 in 168.1 innings of work and could have 200 strikeouts for the first time in his career. He may get a lot closer to that number today against a Brewers lineup that swings and misses a lot against right-handers. Martinez has allowed a career-high in home runs with 22, but the increased strikeouts and the slight drop in walks are two positive developments. Martinez has only allowed more than three runs once in a start dating back to the All-Star Break, so the Brewers will need some good pitching on their end.

For that, they’ll turn to Chase Anderson. Anderson’s career year was stalled by an oblique injury from swinging a bat. Please adopt the DH in the National League. Anderson has a 2.87 ERA with a 3.54 FIP and a 4.52 xFIP, so I’d expect to see the market coming in against the right-hander over his remaining starts. Anderson has a 79.9 percent LOB%, so there’s room for regression there, and he’s about cut his home run to fly ball rate in half from 2016 to 2017, which is stunning with this season’s major spike in dingers. Anderson has struck out a few more batters this year and has had better command overall, but the numbers do suggest regression.

Anderson has worked four innings in each of his first two starts off the DL. He gave up one run on two hits at Coors Field and two runs on six hits at Dodger Stadium. He has a 10/5 K/BB ratio, so he’s not totally sharp yet, but the fact that he has limited hard contact and has avoided the barrel while working his way back to full strength is impressive. Still, with those signs of regression, I’m very worried about what the rest of the season holds for him. The Brewers have taken more of an interest in analytics and have likely found some things that have worked, but I’m concerned going forward.

I’d have to lay it and play it with St. Louis today, since it is a pretty reasonable line. I also think we’ll see some more STL investment hit the market as the day goes along, so grabbing it now with the chance to play back and freeroll later isn’t a bad call.

Detroit at Colorado (-120); Total: 12

This is the spot I was waiting for with the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers take on the Colorado Rockies today at Coors Field to close up this little two-game set. Yesterday’s game was another embarrassing loss to the Tigers and the market heavily steamed the Rockies to make them as high as a $2 favorite in the marketplace. That was a 70-cent line mover, which was incredible to see.

I’m not sure if we’ll see a significant move in this game, but the Rockies are the preferred side at Pinnacle, where the number opened -109 and is now -120. To me, this is a great situational play on the Tigers. Detroit doesn’t have much to look forward to the rest of the season, but this spot at Coors Field with a decent pitching matchup is one of them. Hitters get excited to go to Coors Field. The Tigers aren’t excited about much of anything, but they have a good matchup today against a pitcher in line for regression.

Chad Bettis is a great story. He has a 3.79 ERA with a 4.50 FIP and a 4.71 xFIP through three starts and his first two outings were very impressive. Unfortunately, the statistical profile of Bettis isn’t overly exciting. Bettis threw seven shutout in his first start by scattering six hits, but he only struck out two. He gave up three runs on eight hits in his second start and five runs on six hits in five innings in his last start. There just isn’t much to like here. He’s a great story and I’ll be rooting for him, but I’m also rooting for my bankroll.

Justin Verlander hasn’t been the Justin Verlander of old, or even of last season, but he should get a lot of run support today. Wait this line out and see if it goes up because it very well could. I’ll be on Detroit regardless.

Boston at Toronto (-115); Total: 9

Rick Porcello and JA Happ are ready to get it going at Rogers Centre on Wednesday night. Porcello has been victimized by hard contact all season. Porcello has a 4.57 ERA with a 4.43 FIP and a 4.30 xFIP in 169.1 innings of work. He has a spectacular K/BB ratio, but he’s allowed a .328 BABIP in spite of allowing 31 home runs. That’s how you know a guy isn’t locating. Home runs and mistakes happen. Sustained hard contact leads to a lot of hits on balls in play. That’s Rick Porcello for you. He’s also allowed 19 unearned runs this season, so his ERA could look even worse than it already does.

JA Happ was a guy I was hoping the Indians would grab at the Trade Deadline, but there were a lot of people worried about his FIP. Well, he’s struck out over a batter per inning and now has a 4.10 ERA with a 3.88 FIP and a 3.94 xFIP. Happ has now gone six straight starts without allowing a home run. He’s had some LOB% regression over his last two starts, but he’s back to keeping the ball in the park. I actually like Happ a lot. I think he’s a reliable middle of the rotation guy. There are some hard contact issues at times with some high BABIPs, but I don’t think it’s anything big to worry about.

In this spot, I’ll take Toronto. The Blue Jays have been a bit of an enigmatic team this season and all those injuries early in the year really buried them, but they’re playing a bit better of late and have a clearer edge in the starting pitching department than this line would suggest.

Tampa Bay at Kansas City (-145); Total: 9.5

The Royals got hammered overnight in this game. They opened in the -120 to -125 range and shot up in a hurry. They finally remembered how to score some runs last night, which is a big help in terms of winning baseball games. The Rays also struggle with left-handed pitching and Jason Vargas, signs of regression and all, is not a good matchup for Tampa Bay. There’s no value left in this game, but it is interesting to see Jake Odorizzi get disrespected again in the market.

Los Angeles (-105) at Arizona; Total: 9.5

We’re starting to see a bit of sharp movement on the game between the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks. It will be Hyun-Jin Ryu for the best team in baseball and Robbie Ray for the NL Wild Card-leading Diamondbacks. Ryu shows some modest signs of regression, with a 3.34 ERA, a 4.26 FIP, and a 3.93 xFIP. He’s got pretty decent K/BB rates. The regression lies in his 81.3 percent LOB%. His HR/FB% is a bit elevated, hence the FIP/xFIP discrepancy, but he’s been very fortunate with men on base. This is one of those seasons when the ERA/xFIP discrepancy doesn’t mean as much as it used to. That’s why we’re seeing a lot of gambling based on LOB% regression, both positive and negative. Ryu’s is well out of range.

Robbie Ray has some signs of regression of his own. The southpaw strikeout artist has a 3.06 ERA with a 3.88 FIP and a 3.82 xFIP. His LOB% is up at 84.5. It helps to get lots of swings and misses, but Ray’s walk rate is up from last season, so he’s putting himself in more compromising situations. He had a 68.7 percent LOB% last season and had a 4.90 ERA, despite a better FIP and xFIP than this season. Therefore, I’m not excited to back him either.

The total to this game is significant, isn’t it? A guy with a 3.34 ERA and a guy with a 3.06 ERA and the total is 9.5? I fully understand scoring is up league-wide. The Dodgers are third in wOBA against LHP and the Diamondbacks are…..25th?! With the fourth-worst wRC+ in baseball?!

There’s a lot to unpack about this game. In looking at it and considering all angles, I’m looking to back the Dodgers. They have erased their struggles against lefties in short order and Ray is a primary regression candidate. I’ll be very interested to see where this line settles, but I’ll be grabbing the Dodgers.

Rangers, Astros clash in Florida
By: StatFox.com

The Rangers and Astros will be squaring off at Tropicana Field on Wednesday, as Hurricane Harvey forced this series to move from Houston to St. Petersburg.

The Rangers will be hoping to get back to the .500 mark on Wednesday, and they should be feeling pretty good about the way they played against the Astros on Tuesday. Texas won that game 12-2 and snapped a three-game losing streak in the process. The Rangers will now hope to find another way to win, but it’s safe to say that they are benefitting from the fact that they are not truly playing a road game in this one. One might also argue that the Astros have some more important things to deal with right now. Houston was hit way harder than Arlington by the storm last weekend, so it’s very possible that the Astros players have more personal issues at stake right now. That would mean that they are not able to focus fully on the game, but they’re going to need to do that here. They have bad blood with this Rangers team, so they’ll want to even up this series here and eventually win it on Thursday. The starters in this game are set to be RHP Andrew Cashner (7-9, 3.44 ERA, 63 K) for Texas and LHP Dallas Keuchel (11-2, 2.58 ERA, 90 K) for Houston. One trend that favors the Rangers in this one is the fact that they are 15-5 against the money line in road games after scoring nine or more runs over the past three seasons. The Astros are, however, 62-31 against the money line against righties this year.

The Rangers are sending Andrew Cashner to the hill on Wednesday and he has actually been a very successful reclamation project for them. While Cashner is just 7-9 on the season, his 3.44 ERA is the lowest he’s had since 2014. He looks very comfortable with Texas and the team will be hoping that he shows up in a big way here. He recently met up with this Astros team and threw seven innings of two-run ball on Aug. 13. The Rangers lost that game 2-1, but they would be ecstatic if he were to turn in another effort like that one on Wednesday. As for the Texas offense, two guys to really keep an eye on are 3B Adrian Beltre and OF Joey Gallo. Beltre has really hit Keuchel hard in his career, as he is 17-for-57 with six doubles, two homers, and six RBI against the lefty. If he can continue to produce against him then it would be big for the Rangers. Gallo, meanwhile, has just been an absolute monster this season. He is on pace to hit 45 homers for Texas and that is with a recent trip the DL and a roster spot that was in flux early on. If he can go yard in this one then that would be huge for this offense.

The Astros are coming off of a poor showing at Tropicana Field on Tuesday, but they should be able to regroup with Keuchel on the mound in this one. Keuchel is back to looking like a Cy Young candidate for the Astros, as he has allowed only three earned runs over his past three starts. One of those games was against Texas, when he allowed just one earned run in 6.2 innings. He actually outdueled Cashner in that game and will now be hoping to do it once again in this one. On offense, the Astros have a few guys that will be excited to face Cashner on Wednesday. Two that are really worth mentioning are 2B Jose Altuve and OF Carlos Beltran. The two of them are a combined 14-for-28 with three doubles, two homers, and eight RBI against Cashner in their careers. They will both be counted on to produce in this one and it’s hard to imagine them not finding a way to do just that.

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Double-Play Picks

Detroit Tigers at Colorado Rockies (-120, 12.5)

The Rockies and Tigers will tangle in the final game of their three-game interleague series this afternoon in Denver.

Betting Under in baseball games played at Coors Field always seems like a risky proposition, however games played in the Mile High City this season have been favoring the Under at 36-27-2, including a current streak of five consecutive games below the closing total. The Rockies' good young pitching staff is the main reason for the totals turnaround in 2017.

Chad Bettis gets the ball for that Rockies' staff today. Bettis is three games into his comeback from beating cancer (twice!) and two of those outings have been at home where he owns an ERA of 1.93 and a WHIP of 1.07 in 14 innings of work. Keep the ball down and get lots of ground balls will be the perfect recipe against this uninspired Tigers' offense.

Under is 10-1 in Bettis' last 11 starts overall dating back to August of 2016.

The Tigers will send Justin Verlander to the hill. Although Verlander's season hasn't been quite as strong as his Cy Young worthy 2016 campaign, he is coming off two very strong performances and is always a threat to spin eight or nine innings of shutout pitching.

Today will be Verlander's second career start at Coors Field. His only other start at altitude was a long time ago (2011) but he did toss a complete game four-hitter, and just having that previous experience at Coors Field is important.

Both starters are capable of putting up plenty of zeros, so 12.5 just seems too high.

Pick: Under 12.5

Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels (-140, 9)

The Angels have been one of the most surprising teams of 2017 and are currently in the midst of a battle for the second Wildcard spot in the American League, trailing the Twins by just one game. They look to inch loser to that spot when they host the A’s on Wednesday night.

To get that win, the Angels send right-hander Parker Bridwell to the mound. The standout rookie has been nothing short of spectacular since joining the Angels rotation. Bridwell is 7-2 with a 3.02 and a 1.12 WHIP, while holding opponents to a .240 average.

The scary thing is, Bridwell is getting better. The Angels are 8-1 in his last nine starts while pitching to a 2.40 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP.

To make things tougher on the A’s, Bridwell is very good at limiting home runs, allowing just 12 in 13 starts and only three in the month of August. Oakland scores most its run via the long ball.

Meanwhile, the A’s will counter with Kendall Graveman. The right-hander has had his troubles when pitching away from home this season. Graveman is 1-4 with a 6.39 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP in seven road starts in 2017 and the A’s have lost his last five road starts overall.

Pick: Angels -140

Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season To Date: 127-120-13

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Hyun-Jin Ryu, Los Angeles Dodgers (5-6, 3.34 ERA, $62)

This almost just seems unfair at this point. Ryu is the latest Dodgers starter to be absolutely dealing lately, making it easier to forget the Dodgers have kept winning at this ridiculous pace despite the fact Clayton Kershaw hasn’t pitched since July 23rd.

The Dodgers have won Ryu’s last six starts, with the lefty posting a 3-0 record, a 1.54 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Ryu and the Dodgers are just slight -111 road favorites tonight in Arizona.

Slumping: Ty Blach, San Francisco Giants (8-10, 4.68 ERA, $-158)

One of the worst seasons in recent Giants’ memory can’t be over soon enough and southpaw Ty Blach might be feeling the same.

Blach has stumbled after a solid start to the season, going 0-3 with a whopping 8.82 ERA, a 1.84 WHIP and recording more walks than strikeouts in his last three starts. It’s gotten to the point where Blach and the Giants are +115 road underdogs at the Padres (who have clearly been better in 2017).

Wednesday's Top Trends

* Over is 16-4-1 in the St. Louis Cardinals' last 21 overall. Cards/Brewers Total: 9.
* The Washington Nationals are 46-13 in Stephen Strasburg's last 59 starts. -220 today vs. Marlins.
* Over is 11-2 in Jake Odorizzi's last 13 starts overall. Rays/Royals Total: 9.5.
* The Los Angeles Dodgers are 26-4 in their last 30 games vs. a left-handed starter. -111 today at D-Backs (Robbie Ray)

Weather To Keep An Eye On

Again, thoughts and prayers for everyone in southern Texas and Louisiana. Please donate to the American Red Cross (follow the link for simple donation instructions).

After yesterday's rain soaked day that really messed with games in the Northeast (and of course in Texas) there is no precipitation in the baseball forecast for Wednesday.

Wind will not be a factor across the league with the strongest being a 7-8 mile per hour cross-breeze at Target Field where the Twins will take on the White Sox.

Ump Of The Day

Sean Barber will be calling balls and strikes today at Rogers Centre in Toronto where the Blue Jays will take on the Red Sox.

Barber isn't a high volume home plate umpire, in fact, today will be only his 11th game behind the dish in 2017. When he does work the plate he really favors the home team. The hosts have won six of his last seven, are 7-3 on the season, and are 25-14 (56 percent) dating back to the beginning of the 2015 season.

The Jays are -120 favorites today on home soil...err...grass...err...carpet.