MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, August 9th, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Marlins @ Nationals
Conley is 2-1, 2.70 in his last three starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Miami is 3-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-3-3

Gonzalez is 2-1, 1.86 in his last four starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Washington is 1-5 in his last six home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-5-5

Marlins lost three of last five games; five of their last six games stayed under. Washington won three of last five games; under is 3-2 in their last five games.

Padres @ Reds
Wood is 1-0, 4.91 in two starts this year (over 1-1). Padres lost his only road start— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-1

Wojciechowski is 1-1, 6.85 in five starts this year (over 3-2). Reds are 2-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-4

San Diego lost four of last six games; under is 6-3-1 in their last ten. Cincinnati lost four of last six games; over is 3-0 in their last three games.

Phillies @ Braves
Eickhoff is 2-0, 3.86 in his last five starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Phillies are 0-9 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-10-1

Newcomb is 0-4, 0-4, 7.31 in his last six starts (over 4-2). Atlanta is 1-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-7

Phillies lost five of last seven games; under is 7-3 in their last ten. Atlanta is 3-9 in last 12 home games; under is 8-2 in their last ten.

Dodgers @ Diamondbacks
Wood is 7-1, 2.85 in his last eight starts; over is 3-0 in his last three. Dodgers won his last five road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-4-1

Greinke is 5-0, 3.00 in his last seven starts; over is 2-0-1 in his last three. Arizona won his last eight home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-5-3

Dodgers are 44-8 in their last 52 games; under is 6-2-1 in their last nine. Arizona won three of last four home games; over is 4-2-1 in their last seven.

Cubs @ Giants
Hendricks is 0-2, 4.97 in his last five starts (under 4-1). Cubs are 3-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-6-1

Bumgarner is 1-1, 1.42 in his last three starts; under is 5-2-1 in his last eight. giants are 1-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-5-2

Chicago lost five of last seven games; under is 4-1-1 in their last six road games. Giants lost six of last nine games; over is 5-1-1 in their last seven.

American League

New York @ Toronto
Tanaka is 0.65 in his last four starts; under is 6-3 in his last nine. New York is 4-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-12

Tepesch allowed seven runs in 1.2 IP for the Twins in his only ’17 start (May 6). He is 9-19, 4.69 in 41 career MLB starts. This is his first start for Toronto.

New York lost five of last seven games; under is 6-1 in their last seven. Blue Jays are 6-2 in last eight games; over is 6-3 in their last nine games.

Red Sox @ Rays
Porcello is 1-4, 4.19 in his last five starts (under 4-1). Boston is 4-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-16-2

Odorizzi is 2-1, 6.32 in his last seven starts; over is 8-1 in his last nine. Rays are 3-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-6-4

Boston won its last seven games; under is 6-2 in their last eight games. Tampa Bay won four of last seven games; under is 8-1-1 in their last ten home games.

Astros @ White Sox
McHugh is 0-0, 3.78 in three starts this year (under 2-1). Astros are 1-1 in his road starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 2-1

Gonzalez is 1-5, 7.61 in his last seven starts; over is 10-4 in his last 14. Chicago lost his last three home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-10-3

Astros lost five of last seven games; over is 14-3 in their last 17 road games. Chicago is 4-20 in its last 24 games; over is 7-3 in their last ten home games.

Mariners @ A’s
Gallardo is 1-0, 4.02 in his last three starts; over is 9-2 in his last 11. Seattle is 4-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-8-3

Cotton is 0-1, 8.56 in his last three starts (over 2-0-1). Oakland is 3-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-9-1

Mariners won seven of last ten games; over is 4-1 in their last five. Oakland lost seven of last ten home games (under 7-2-1).

Orioles @ Angels
Gausman is 3-0, 0.65 in his last four starts; his last three starts stayed under. Orioles are 4-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-12

Scribner allowed five runs in four IP (74 PT) in his first MLB start, an 8-6 win over Oakland. Angels’ first 5-inning record with him: 0-1

Baltimore won eight of last 11 games; under is 7-2 in their last nine. Angels lost three of last four games; under is 5-3 in their last eight home games.

Interleague

Pirates @ Tigers
Nova is 0-2, 8.44 in his last three starts; under is 8-2 in his last ten. Pirates are 1-5 in his last six road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-11-1

Verlander is 2-0, 2.33 in his last four starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six. Detroit is 7-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-11-4

Tigers lost their last four games; under is 5-2-1 in their last eight. Pittsburgh won five of last six games; under is 18-3-2 in last 23 home games.

Rangers @ Mets
Perez is 0-4, 9.41 in his last four starts; over is 6-2 in their last eight. Texas is 2-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-12-3

Montero is 0-3, 6.07 in his last five starts (under 4-1). Mets are 1-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-6-1

Rangers lost seven of last ten games; over is 6-4-1 in their last 11 road games. Mets lost four of their last five games (under 3-1-1).

Rockies @ Indians
Senzatela is 1-2, 10.93 in his last three starts; his last six starts went over. Colorado lost his last four road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-4-2

Bauer is 3-0, 2.25 in his last three starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight. Cleveland is 7-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-8-3

Rockies won three of last five games; under is 6-2 in their last eight. Cleveland lost five of last eight games; under is 5-1 in their last six home games.

Twins @ Brewers
Colon is 1-1, 5.18 in four starts for Minnesota (over 3-1). Twins are 0-2 in his road starts; first 5-inning record with him: 2-2

Woodruff allowed nine baserunners, no runs in 6.1 IP in his first MLB start, at Tampa Bay — Brewers’ first 5-inning record with him: 1-0

Brewers lost their last three games; under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games. Minnesota won four of last five games; under is 4-1-1 in their last six games.

Royals @ Cardinals
Cahill is 0-0, 7.27 in two starts this year (over 2-0). Royals lost his only road start— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-1-1

Leake is 1-2, 3.00 in his last three starts; over is 5-3-1 in his last nine. Cardinals are 3-9 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-9-3

St Louis is 10-5 in last 15 games; under is 7-4-1 in their last 12. Royals lost seven of last nine games; over is 5-1 in their last six.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
Mia-Wsh: Conley 5-5; Gonzalez 12-10
SD-Cin: Wood 1-1 (2-1); Wojciechowski 2-3
Phil-Atl: Eickhoff 5-14; Newcomb 2-8
LA-Az: Wood 13-4; Greinke 16-6
Chi-SF: Hendricks 7-7; Bumgarner 1-8

American League
NY-Tor: Tanaka 10-12; Tepesch 0-0 (0-1)
Bos-TB: Porcello 9-14; Odorizzi 7-11
Hst-Chi: McHugh 1-2; Gonzalez 6-11
Sea-A’s: Gallardo 6-11; Cotton 6-10
Balt-LAA: Gausman 12-12; Scribner 1-0

Interleague
Pitt-Det: Nova 12-10; Verlander 10-13
Tex-NY: Perez 7-14; Montero 3-5
Col-Clev: Senzatela 11-6; Bauer 11-10
Min-Mil: Colon 1-3 (5-8 ); Woodruff 1-0
KC-StL: Cahill 1-1 (7-4); Leake 9-13

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
Mia-Wsh: Conley 5-10; Gonzalez 7-22
SD-Cin: Wood 0-5; Wojciechowski 2-5
Phil-Atl: Eickhoff 7-19; Newcomb 2-10
LA-Az: Wood 2-17; Greinke 3-22
Chi-SF: Hendricks 7-14; Bumgarner 1-9

American League
NY-Tor: Tanaka 10-22; Tepesch 0-1
Bos-TB: Porcello 7-23; Odorizzi 5-18
Hst-Chi: McHugh 0-3; Gonzalez 6-17
Sea-A’s: Gallardo 8-17; Cotton 6-16
Balt-LAA: Gausman 6-24; Scribner 0-1

Interleague
Pitt-Det: Nova 7-22; Verlander 6-23
Tex-NY: Perez 9-21; Montero 2-8
Col-Clev: Senzatela 8-17; Bauer 4-21
Min-Mil: Colon 6-17; Woodruff 0-1
KC-StL: Cahill 3-13; Leake 5-22

Umpires

National League
Mia-Wsh: Over is 2-1 in Additon games this season.
SD-Cin: Underdogs are 13-8 in last 21 Dreckman games.
Phil-Atl: Over is 6-2 in last eight Segal games.
LA-Az: Over is 10-3-2 in last 15 Marquez games.
Chi-SF: Under is 7-3-1 in last eleven Wolf games.

American League
NY-Tor: Favorites won eight of last nine Carlson games.
Bos-TB: Three of last four Randazzo games went over.
Hst-Chi: Last nine TBarrett games stayed under.
Sea-A’s: Last five Barry games stayed under the total.
Balt-LAA: Underdogs won seven of last eight DeJesus games.

Interleague
Det-Pitt: Over is 9-2 in last eleven Rackley games.
Tex-NY: Over is 4-1-1 in last six Ripperger games.
Col-Clev: Under is 4-0-2 in last six Eddings games.
Mil-Min: Underdogs are 4-3 in last seven Scheurwater games.
StL-KC: Under is 7-3 in last ten Winters games.

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 61-46 AL, favorites -$153
AL @ NL– 59-53 NL, favorites -$311
Total: 114-105 AL, favorites -$464

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 55-51-3
AL @ NL: Over 61-46-6
Total: Over 116-97-9

Armadillosports.com

Wednesday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Mariners (7-3 past 10 games overall)

The Mariners erased a 6-2 deficit, storming back in Oakland for a 7-6 win in 10 innings. It could end up being a very important win, as they're tied with the Kansas City Royals and Tampa Bay Rays for a wild card spot, although there is obviously plenty of time to play. The Mariners are now 6-1 over their past seven road games against a team with a losing record, and they're an impressive 11-4 over their past 15 road outings. Things will certainly be put to the test, as the M's are just 2-7 over Yovani Gallardo's past nine while working on five days of rest. The A's haven't been much better with Jharel Cotton on the hill, however, going just 3-7 over his past 10 outings. Perhaps the final game of the series will be a run-fest. The over is 5-1-1 in Gallardo's past seven for the M's, 4-1 in his past five on the road and 4-1 in his past five against AL West foes. The over is 5-0-2 in Oakland's past seven in the Coliseum, 8-2-2 in their past 12 overall and 4-1 in Cotton's past five at home.

Coldest team: Rangers (3-7 past 10 overall)

The Rangers are six games under .500, but still within four games of the final wild card spot in the American League. However, they'll need to right the ship soon. Texas has won just three of their past 10 games overall, and they're a dismal 4-13 over the past 17 against teams with a losing record. The turnaround might not come with left-hander Martin Perez on the bump, as the Rangers are 0-4 over his past four outings and 0-7 in his past seven on the road against a team with a losing record. They're also just 2-6 over his past eight on the road while going 1-6 over the past seven vs. RHP.

Hottest pitcher: Zack Greinke, Diamondbacks (13-4, 3.10 ERA)

Greinke looks to bounce back after getting tuned up for a season-high six runs at Wrigley Field on Thursday. It was a stark contrast from his July when he went 4-0 with a 2.12 ERA over five starts, his first month this season without a loss. He'll be facing his former team, the Dodgers, a side which tossed him for five runs and 10 hits over five innings for his first loss of the season back on April 14. He'll need to tread very carefully around Justin Turner. Not only does the redheaded third baseman have homers in three straight games (four homers overall), but he is 6-for-14 (.429) with two doubles, a triple, a homer and five RBI with a 1.357 OPS in his career against him. Corey Seager has also launched two homers in just nine career at-bats, hitting .667 in their brief encounters.

Coldest pitcher: Rick Porcello, Red Sox (5-14, 4.70 ERA)

It's been well documented how stark of a contrast Porcello's 2017 season is to his 2016 campaign. He just hasn't shown many signs of a turnaround. After a couple of effective starts in July, he has allowed nine earned runs across 12 1/3 innings over his past two outings. He actually won his most recent outing agianst the White Sox on Thursday, but he gave up five runs and seven hits over just 5 1/3 innings. He still has lost five of his pst six decisions, and his 76 earned runs are tied for fifth-most allowed this season.

Biggest UNDER run: Brewers (8-1-2 past 11 overall)

While the 'over' hit in Tuesday's game at Target Field, it is a rarity these days for the Brewers. That was their first over result since July 27 in Washington, a 15-2 burial from the Nationals. Over the past 12 games the Brewers have tallied two or fewer runs in seven outings, with three or fewer runs in nine of the past 12. Their pitching hasn't been the problem, at least until Tuesday when they allowed double digits in runs. Entering Tuesday they were allowing an average of 2.2 runs per game over the past 10. That's a recipe for plenty of under results, and total bettors love those type of statistics.

Biggest OVER run: Giants (3-0-1 past four games, 6-2-1 past nine overall)

The 'over' inched over the finish line Tuesday as the Giants doubled up the defending champs, evening their series at one game apiece. The over is 3-0-1 across the past four for San Francisco, as they're averaging a respectable 5.0 runs per game while yielding 3.8 runs per outing. They're not smashing the over by any stretch, but seven of their past 10 games have featured a total of eight or more total runs. The over is also 3-0-1 in Chicago's past four, too, and the over is 3-0-1 in the past four meetings in San Francisco. However, with Madison Bumgarner on the hill, the over will be put to the test. The under is 5-2-1 over his past eight outings and 4-1 over the past five against a team with a winning overall mark.

Matchup to watch: Nationals vs. Marlins

The Nationals fell under the .600 winning percentage mark with their 7-3 loss on Tuesday against the pesky Marlins, but they remain 21 games over .500 on the season. In addition, Washington still has a 13-game buffer between themselves and Miami through 111 games, or 51 games to play. The Nationals still have a plus-109 run differential, third-best in the NL, while the Marlins have a minus-13. Still, the Marlins are now 6-5 through 11 meetings this season, going 2-3 in five matchups at Nationals Park. The teams roll out a pair of southpaws for Wednesday's tilt, with LHP Adam Conley squaring off with LHP Gio Gonzalez. The latter took a no-hitter into the ninth inning at Marlins Park in his last outing on July 31. The Hialeah, Fla. native has quality starts in 11 of his past 12 outings.

Betcha didn’t know: The Astros didn't get much from Dallas Keuchel in Tuesday's start in Chicago, as he was tagged for eight runs, 10 hits, three walks and just two strikeouts over four frames by the White Sox of all teams. It was good for a game score of just nine, the worst of his 140 career starts. Will they get more from Collin McHugh on Wednesday? The Astros are 9-3 over his past 12 starts, including 7-1 over his past eight on the road. Houston is also 4-0 in the past four starts by McHugh when working on five days of rest. While all that sounds good, the Astros are still 0-5 over McHugh's past five against American League Central Division squads.

Biggest public favorite: Astros (-180) at White Sox

Biggest public underdog: Pirates (+135) at Tigers

Biggest line move: Royals (+140 to +120) at Cardinals

MLB Picks of the Day
By Zabo Jones
Bangthebook.com

MLB Favorite of the day: St. Louis Cardinals -127

The Cardinals and the Royals are going to be playing again, but this time in St. Louis instead of Kansas City. The Cardinals are going to be starting Mike Leake, while the Royals are going to be starting Trevor Cahill. The Royals are starting to slowly lose their opportunity to win the division, but they are still very much alive in the AL wild card race. The Cardinals meanwhile look dead in the wild card, and barring a miracle, are probably dead in the divisional race as well.

Trevor Cahill is the most recently acquired player for the Royals. Cahill has been a bit of a punchline throughout his career, but this year he has put together a very good season. In 70 innings, Cahill has an ERA of 4.13, and an xFIP of 3.62. While his walk rate is pretty high, he is able to get around walks well by striking out more than a batter an inning, and getting a lot of groundballs. He has a groundball rate of 55%, which is incredibly valuable for a pitcher who allows a lot of walks. My general concern with Cahill is that he has never performed this well for this long. That may not be a fair criticism, but it’s hard to buy that a pitcher can just completely rebuild himself.

Mike Leake is going to be starting for the Cardinals. Leake has an ERA of 3.34, and an xFIP of 3.96. The difference between surface and peripheral stats isn’t that large, but Leake is the type of pitcher whose ERA will outperform his defensive independent stats. He forces a lot of groundballs, avoids walks, and doesn’t strike many batters out. A team like Kansas City, who does not have a lot of homerun threats may have a lot of problems getting a rally together against Leake, so I would feel pretty good taking the Cardinals in this game.

MLB Underdog of the day: Tampa Bay Rays +109

The Rays and the Red Sox are going to be playing in Tampa Bay with Jake Odorizzi and Rick Porcello starting. Both the Red Sox and the Rays have pretty strong chances of making the playoffs, but are still in tough races regardless. The Red Sox have been neck and neck with the Yankees all season long, and neither team has managed to pull away. The Rays are fighting to get the second AL Wild Card spot, with the Royals and Mariners very close.

Rick Porcello has not followed up his Cy Young season with a very convincing defense. Porcello has an ERA of 4.70 and an xFIP of 4.30. While his peripherals are worse than last season, they aren’t worse by all that much, so his regression isn’t too surprising. Porcello’s BABIP has risen more than 60 points, form .269 last season up to .333 this season. Neither of those is likely to last that long, so Porcello may well improve down the line, but there isn’t much that makes me confident that he’s going to look like a Cy Young contender again.

Jake Odorizzi much like Rick Porcello has had a pretty disappointing season thus far. He has an ERA of 4.47 with an xFIP of 4.95. He has the bad ERA in spite of the fact that he has benefitted from a very low BABIP which is sitting at .239. That BABIP is especially surprising given the fact that he has a very low groundball rate, and a pretty high hard hit ball rate. Odorizzi isn’t my favorite pitcher in the MLB, and is one of my least favorite on the Rays, but it’s worthwhile taking a flier on a team who is an underdog at home with roughly similar pitchers. I would like this mostly just as a value play.

MLB Over/Under of the day: Pittsburgh Pirates/Detroit Tigers under 9

The Tigers and the Pirates are playing at Comerica Park with Justin Verlander and Ivan Nova starting. Both teams look to be out of playoff contention, even if the Pirates think that they have a sliver of hope left in the NL Central. The Tigers meanwhile spent the deadline selling off some of their cheaper, but still valuable pieces while hanging onto Verlander, and Upton. Verlander technically could still be moved as a waiver deal, but it seems pretty unlikely.

It can be hard to figure out Justin Verlander a lot of the time. He is pretty inconsistent from start to start, and a lot of the time seems to be worked harder than almost any other starter in baseball. He has an ERA of 4.20 and an xFIP of 4.69. But he’s been lowering both of these rapidly in recent starts, with 4 consecutive quality starts, all with game scores above 62. Verlander has a bit of a reputation of improving late in the season, and maybe that’s what we’re seeing from him right now.

Ivan Nova has been a terrific starter for the Pirates since his arrival in 2016. Many people were opposed to the acquisition of Nova, not seeing a lot of upside while also seeing quite a bit of bust potential. But this season Nova has an ERA of 3.66 with an xFIP of 4.03. Nova has lost some of the strikeouts that he was given last season, but he’s only walking 1.20 batters per nine innings, so he’s allowing almost nobody on base for free. In some ways he’s like a Josh Tomlin who gets more groundballs, and has pretty good stuff. It would be nice if he could turn some of the stuff into strikeouts, but for the time being he has been a very effective pitcher this year. With two pretty good starters with good upside I would feel good with the under in this game.

Rays host sizzling Red Sox
By: StatFox.com

The Red Sox will be going for their eighth straight win when they take on the Rays on Wednesday.

Boston is on fire heading into Wednesday’s meeting with Tampa Bay, as the Red Sox have now won seven straight games. They just defeated this Rays team on Tuesday, winning 2-0 in a game that saw Chris Sale absolutely dominate. The lefty threw eight shutout innings in that game, and he also struck out 13 batters. It’s pretty safe to say that Boston will not get that type of performance from Wednesday’s starter. That pitcher is set to be RHP Rick Porcello (5-14, 4.70 ERA, 132 K), who has struggled a ton this season. He’s also going up against a Rays team that knows how important a win in this game is. Tampa is currently fighting for a wild card spot, and it can’t afford to slip under the .500 mark at this point in the year. The starter that will be tasked with avoiding the loss in this one is RHP Jake Odorizzi (6-4, 4.47 ERA, 82 K). The righty has also been worse than expected this season, so it wouldn’t be shocking if there were a ton of runs scored in this one. One trend that stands out when looking at this game is that the Rays are 0-6 over the past two seasons when Odorizzi is on the mound in a game with a total of 8.5 to 10.

The Red Sox are hoping to continue to stretch their lead atop the AL East standings, but Rick Porcello will need to turn things around in order for Boston to win on Wednesday. The 2016 AL Cy Young Award winner has now allowed nine earned runs in his past 12.1 innings of work. He just gave up five earned runs in 5.1 innings against the White Sox, and that type of performance will not cut it on Wednesday. The Sox will need a quality start or something close to it, but Porcello just might have some confidence in this one. Despite his struggles, he allowed only one earned run in 8.0 innings of work in his most recent start against the Rays (Jul. 8 ). Perhaps he has this lineup figured out. As for the Boston lineup, 3B Eduardo Nunez (.323 BA, 8 HR, 43 RBI) is somebody that needs to be mentioned here. Nunez is batting .422 with four homers and 12 RBI in 10 games with the Red Sox this season. He is really enjoying his new home, and his production has made this a scary lineup.

The Rays can really use a win in this game on Wednesday and Jake Odorizzi knows that he needs to be on his game in this one. Odorizzi allowed three earned runs in four innings of work in his last start, and he needed 95 pitches to get through those four innings. That is not going to be good enough against a Boston lineup that is absolutely clicking right now. The Rays need more of the Odorizzi that pitched seven innings of one-run ball in his previous start against the Athletics. On offense, 1B Logan Morrison (.249 BA, 28 HR, 66 RBI) could provide a spark for Tampa Bay in this game. Morrison has been great against Porcello in his career, going 10-for-31 with three doubles, a homer, and five RBI against the righty. It has also been five games since Morrison last homered, so perhaps he is due.

MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Seattle at Oakland (-110); Total: 9.5

Seven different relievers made an appearance in last night’s Mariners vs. A’s game for the Athletics. Only four were needed by the Mariners. That sets up an interesting day today after last night’s 7-6 Seattle victory. Yovani Gallardo takes the mound for the Mariners against Jharel Cotton for the A’s.

Once again, there’s a lot of pressure on guys like Ariel Miranda and Yovani Gallardo because Felix Hernandez is back on the DL with bursitis. James Paxton has been carrying this pitching staff throughout the season, but he needs some help. It doesn’t seem like he’ll be getting it from Gallardo. Gallardo has a 5.35 ERA with a 4.96 FIP and a 5.02 xFIP on the season. He doesn’t miss many bats and his command and control have progressively gotten worse over the last two seasons. Gallardo actually spent some time on the shelf and working out of the bullpen before returning to the rotation three starts ago. In those three starts, he’s kept his team in the game with seven runs allowed in 15.2 innings of work. It’s never pretty for Gallardo, who only has 73 strikeouts in 102.2 innings of work. He has eight strikeouts against eight walks over those last three starts. Basically, your primary hope with Gallardo is that he gives up three runs over five instead of five runs over five.

Jharel Cotton is a big piece of Oakland’s plans going forward. This season, he has struggled. Cotton has a 5.48 ERA with a 5.17 FIP and a 5.32 xFIP. He’s worked 85.1 innings over 16 starts. Cotton had five strong outings for the A’s last season and many were hoping for a breakout season, but that hasn’t been the case. Cotton has regularly allowed four or five runs per start, much like Gallardo. He’s had a few more strikeouts with 78 in his 85.1 innings, but has also issued 38 walks. Lefties have been all over Cotton this season, who has decreased his changeup usage. He’s allowed a .254/.369/.455 slash to lefties. Righties have hit for more power with 18 doubles and eight home runs compared to four doubles and seven homers for lefties, but he’s got a 29/22 K/BB ratio against lefties and a 45/16 K/BB ratio against righties.

The left-handed-heavy Mariners lineup should be a solid matchup against Cotton today, who has also really struggled at O.co Coliseum. Ten of his 15 HR allowed have occurred in Oakland, where lefties are hitting a robust .344/.461/.645 in just 77 plate appearances. It certainly looks like both offenses could have some success today, so the over is a consideration, even with the getaway day factor. I’d also be looking at the Mariners here. I have more faith in Gallardo to keep his team in the game than Cotton.

Chicago (-115) at San Francisco; Total: 7.5

Money has come in against Madison Bumgarner in this one, so the Cubs are now road chalk at AT&T Park for the getaway day series finale. It will be Kyle Hendricks for the Cubs. Hendricks has spent a good portion of the season on the shelf, but has a 3.81 ERA with a 4.29 FIP and a 3.97 xFIP on the season in his 78 innings. Hendricks returned from the DL three starts ago and looks like the pitcher he was prior to the injuries. He’s given up five runs on 19 hits in 16.1 innings of work. His command is still a work in progress, but he’s getting just enough strikeouts to get by and has only issued two walks. He should keep getting better as he gets into a rhythm and the Cubs are certainly better than they were back in April and May when he was healthy.

The season for the Giants literally and figuratively crashed when Madison Bumgarner wrecked himself in a dirt bike accident. This will be Bumgarner’s sixth start since coming back and it appears that the rust is gone. Bumgarner has worked seven innings in each of his last two starts with seven strikeouts per start and just two runs allowed on 10 hits. It’s a little bit surprising to see the market fading Bumgarner again, but the Giants are a bad team with a terrible defense and a subpar bullpen. This is one of those spots where we may be able to pick off a little bit of line value on San Francisco first five so Bumgarner can do his thing and then we can see if the Cubs can come through on the full game. You can catch San Francisco first five innings at -105. So play $105 to win $100. You can play the Cubs full-game at $115 to win $100. You’ve got a nice middle if Bumgarner falters late and a great opportunity if it’s a close game late against the Giants bullpen. Best-case scenario is that you win $200 with a $220 investment. It’s doubtful that the Cubs bullpen blows the game, though obviously possible. If it happens, you’ll be in bad shape, but if the Cubs get a lead and hold it, you’ll only lose $5 shooting for that middle. If the Giants hang on, it’s a $10 loss. It’s a decent way to approach this game given the pitching matchup and the late-inning strengths and weaknesses of both teams.

Boston (-120) at Tampa Bay; Total: 9

Rick Porcello and Jake Odorizzi are the slated starters for Wednesday night’s affair at the Trop. Porcello has been victimized by a lot of hard contact this season, but so has Odorizzi. Porcello was a pitcher that I called for regression from coming out of last year’s Cy Young campaign and it has hit in a big way. Those that have faded Porcello religiously have made some nice money doing that. He has a 4.70 ERA with a 4.33 FIP and a 4.30 xFIP because he has had no command.

Honestly, I think last season destroyed Porcello. He worked 223 innings and then made one playoff start. He had only worked 200 regular season innings once before in his career and that was 2014. Some sequencing factors fed into his 4.92 ERA in 2015, but he had terrible command with the highest home run rate of his career and a .332 BABIP against. Well, flash forward to 2017, coming off of the highest workload of his career, and Porcello has a career high home run rate and a .333 BABIP against. He’s stopped inducing as many ground balls, dropping over four percent in his GB%. That’s not a great fit against the Rays given the way their offense operates.

Jake Odorizzi returns to the Tampa Bay rotation after missing time with a back injury. He has a 4.47 ERA with a 5.74 FIP and a 4.95 xFIP. Odorizzi is an extreme fly ball guy. The problem is that some of those fly balls have flown extremely far. Odorizzi has made 18 starts this season and has allowed a home run in 17 of them. He’s given up at least one dinger in 15 straight starts. Sometimes those are the only runs he has allowed, but other times, they are not. The Red Sox have been one of this season’s biggest laggards in HR/FB%, so the streak might be on the line a bit here today. The one start in which Odorizzi didn’t allow a home run came against Boston, but he only pitched one inning and faced four batters. That led to a DL stint.

This looks like an over to me. Porcello’s command coupled with Odorizzi’s knack for long balls means a long night for both pitchers. The Rays offense has been inconsistent this season and has sagged off over the last six weeks, so I’d have a slight lean to the Red Sox, who also have the better bullpen.

Pittsburgh at Detroit (-125); Total: 9.5

After two games at PNC Park, the venue now shifts to Comerica Park, as we go from one bank to another in this series between Rust Belt cities. The Pirates will send Ivan Nova to the mound in Motown and the Tigers will respond with Justin Verlander. I’m surprised to see which way the line is trending for this game, to be completely honest. Money has trickled in on the Pirates, even though these two pitchers are going in opposite directions.

PNC Park has been one of the better pitcher’s parks in baseball this season. Therefore, it should come as no surprise that the Pirates are 32-26 at home and 24-31 on the road. Many of their pitchers have significant splits by venue. Nova is one of them. The right-hander has a .256/.290/.387 slash against at home in 63.1 innings with a 2.70 ERA. On the road, opposing hitters are batting .279/.309/.502 in 79.1 innings with a 4.42 ERA. The one silver lining for Nova in this start is that righties are only batting .237/.273/.386 against him this season. Lefties are slashing .305/.332/.525. The Tigers don’t have many left-handed hitters of consequence.

Justin Verlander is trying to finish the year strong. He’s been the subject of some trade conversations with a 4.20 ERA, a 4.12 FIP, and a 4.69 xFIP. It seems like Verlander, who missed a good chunk of 2015 with a back injury, has had a hangover effect from his 227.2 innings of work last season. That was the most for him since 2012 and he’s no spring chicken in his mid-30s. Verlander has seen downgrades in both his control and command metrics this season. That being said, Verlander has been pretty good over his last 13 starts. He allowed seven runs on nine hits to the Indians on July 2. Aside from that start, Verlander hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any other start in that span. Take out that Cleveland game and he has allowed 24 earned runs in 72.2 innings of work for a 2.97 ERA. The Indians just happen to own Verlander, so it’s okay to exclude that one from the sample. I don’t know if people realize how good he has been lately. He also has 78 strikeouts in those 76 innings of work, including 33 over his last 27 innings.

The under is an obvious look in this one. Nova’s road splits are worrisome, but their impact is mitigated by the fact that he’s going to see a lot of right-handed hitters in the Tigers lineup. Verlander has been in a nice groove of late and the Pirates offense hasn’t been very exciting for most of the season. Comerica Park has played better for hitters as the season has gone along, but this is one of the tougher parks for hitting with the spacious outfield dimensions. Everything lines up nicely here for an under play.

Kansas City at St. Louis (-135); Total: 8.5

Trevor Cahill and Mike Leake will get it going in the I-70 series tonight. The venue now shifts to Busch Stadium, so the Royals will be down a hitter in this one. The Cardinals have won the first two games of this interleague set in blowout fashion and are now favored for tonight’s matchup.

Cahill’s first two starts with the Royals have not gone well. That’s pretty surprising because the Royals are an enormous defensive upgrade relative to the Padres, but Cahill’s command has been his downfall. He’s given up 14 hits in 8.2 innings of work with four home runs allowed. He’s only struck out five and walked four. Cahill’s last start for the Padres was ugly, though that may have been a byproduct of the trade rumors. Either way, he’s put together three straight clunkers and that has to have the Royals a bit worried. Cahill still has 77 strikeouts in 69.2 innings of work on the season with a 4.13/4.13/3.62 pitcher slash, so home runs have been a bit of an issue. We’ll see if he returns to his comfort zone a bit with a start in an NL park.

It’s not surprising to see the market looking to fade Mike Leake. Leake has a 3.34 ERA with a 3.98 FIP and a 3.96 xFIP, so there are some built-in signs of regression. On the other hand, this is what Mike Leake is and what he has always been. In the age of power and on-base percentage, his low walk rate, high ground ball rate, and average HR/FB% have allowed him to have success with a low strikeout rate. He just does it season after season. Last year, Leake had a 65.6 percent LOB% and posted a 4.69 ERA, despite lower FIP and xFIP marks than this season’s numbers. I think we just have to look at Leake for what he is and assume that he’s going to keep his team in the game. Nowadays, that’s a big deal. There are a lot of very bad pitchers out there and Leake has consistently been average or better. That’s a big asset.

Until I see Trevor Cahill put together a good outing, I can’t bet on one. I won’t be laying the price with the Cardinals this evening, but I won’t be rolling with the dog either.

Los Angeles (-115) at Arizona; Total: 8.5

Have the Dodgers finally hit a wall? It was only one game last night between Kenta Maeda and Zack Godley, but the Diamondbacks looked in control of the proceedings and came away with a 6-3 win. The Dodgers are on an historic pace from a win-loss standpoint and they are one of baseball’s biggest stories.

One of the main characters in that story is Alex Wood. We always knew that Alex Wood was a pretty decent pitcher, but what he has done this season is incredible. Wood has a 2.33 ERA with a 2.56 FIP and a 2.93 xFIP in his 104.1 innings of work. He’s made 17 starts and two relief appearances with over a strikeout per inning. His HR/FB% of 8.6 percent is very strong and his 59.6 percent GB% has been a contributing factor in his success. His LOB% isn’t outrageous and his BABIP, while low for a ground ball guy, isn’t too far out of the normal range. He’s just located extremely well. The Diamondbacks have torched right-handed pitching this season, but they actually rank in the bottom third of the league in wOBA against LHP and are tied for dead last in wRC+, which is park-adjusted. They’re down there with the Padres.

So, I’m a bit surprised to see the action in this game. I love Zack Greinke and what he has done this season, but the Diamondbacks are a very poor offensive squad against left-handed pitching and Wood throws left-handed. Greinke has a 3.10 ERA with a 3.24 FIP and a 3.19 xFIP. He’s back to striking out a lot of batters and has lowered his walk rate from last season. Last year, Greinke had a hard time adjusting to Chase Field and a new environment by posting a 4.37 ERA. He also had some bad defensive catchers. That isn’t the case this season and he has shined as a result.

It will be interesting to see how Greinke responds to his last start. Greinke allowed nine runs over his last six starts before allowing six runs on nine hits to the Cubs at Wrigley Field. He gave up two home runs in a start for the first time since May 16.

I like the Dodgers tonight. I think the market is giving us a gift by backing Arizona. The Diamondbacks are really behind the eight-ball in terms of their splits against left-handed pitching. The Dodgers can hit everybody and should have pretty good advance reports on Greinke, who they had for a few years and who they also saw last season and once earlier this season.

Miami at Washington (-175)

I’m looking at a straight fade of Gio Gonzalez today. Whether that means playing the Marlins team total over or the Marlins money line, Gonzalez is running some numbers that are totally unsustainable. He nearly no-hit this Marlins lineup his last time out, so we’re going off of the letdown factor from that. More importantly, Gonzalez has a 2.66 ERA with a 4.05 FIP and a 4.30 xFIP. His .241 BABIP is 52 points below his career average and his 85.1 percent LOB% is a massive outlier. To be completely honest, I’d even consider firing on the reverse money line tonight with Miami.