Wednesday MLB Thoughts
By Dave Essler
Pirates-Washington: It's either a cheap price on Strasburg or a gift on the Pirates. I suppose one could argue that sooner or later Strasburg will be back in form, but I can never back the Nationals against a LHP, and as fate would have it Liriano wears the glove on his right hand.
Braves-Mets: Seriously considered backing Torres on Tuesday night but passed, and seriously considering backing Hefner on Wednesday. Not many teams know Hudson as well as the Mets, and honeslty, Hudson is showing his age and simply not the same pitcher away from Turner Field.
Padres-Brewers: So we're disrespecting O'Sullivan because of what St. Louis did to him last time around, but honestly thought the number would be higher. Lohse can be had, but think the play here, weather depending, might be over. Doubt O'Sullivan will pitch deep, and cannot trust the Brewers bullpen.
Phillies-Cardinals: So Holliday is out and the Cardinals are actually under .500 against left handed starters. Westbrook has been a freak at home this season, however the Phillies have had some success against him. I may make a great case for the Phillies RL here. Perhaps even the ML.
Miamip-Colorado: Wanted to take the Fish against Chacin, but saw the miserable lineup they put out. I'd love to take them against De La Rosa strictly based on Turner's 1.19 WHIP and the fact that the Rockies have never seen him. Perhaps the under is the play here as well. Again, this one will wait for lineups for sure.
Cubs-Arizona: There is simply no chance of laying -140 backing Kennedy against anyone this season, and every reason to back Samardija at plus money, barring any unforeseen bullpen stuff Tuesday and/or missing pieces to the Cubs lineup, like say Rizzo for example.
Reds-Giants: After playing two, this one will also be very lineup dependent. They're certainly making it almost too easy to take Mike Leake, who is simply pitching well all season. However, Gaudin has been a little ATM since being inserted into the starting lineup. But, I did say not Reds games and I meant it. Next year we'll try again. Maybe.
A's-Astros: Always looking to back Norris at home and that is simply too tempting a RL not to take the Astros. Griffin has been hittable on the road at times, so because of that there's just no chance of laying that money with the A's, Norris has had a couple of rough starts, making me think that playing over 8 in that little (at least not to dead center) park might be worth a shot.
Twins-Angels: Well, no chance of this clown laying -220 on the Angels, although Weaver has indeed been almost unhittable this year. Pelfrey may well be the sacraficial lamb here, but maybe not. Weaver's thrown as ass of pitches and already had a 113 pitch game since the break, and Pelfrey HAS been able to keep the Twins in most games. I may love the under here, and if the Angels take this one for granted and rest, say, Trout, I'd take the Twins RL perhaps. It is a day game and teams do rest people.
Cleveand-Seattle: Headed into Tuesday's game the Tribe were hitting .184 since the break, and as much as I;d like to take Seattle here, they are simply not as lethal against LHP and in most cases Cleveland is, so I lean Indians to get this done over Saunders. Maybe. Another day game and need lineups.
Rays-Boston: Ah, Doubront. When he's on he's way under valued, but when he's off or not getting close calls, he can get rattled easily. And of course there's Price who's not been Price and who Boston knows and, and, and. Two lefties in Fenway in July. You would think that means over. However, I tend to think otherwise and the total coming out at 9u (-120) seems to as well, and I already see some 8.5's floating around. With that in mind, I may take the Red Sox RL if people don't mind laying some juice.
Yankees-Rangers: Have to wonder how Garza fares, really. It's hot as hell in Texas and he's going to be at least somewhat nervous, given a third life. And speaking of lives, one of them was with the Rays, so most of the Yankees (Cano is you HR contest entrant) have seen him. And of course there's aging Andy, so the only thing I can think of doing this early is the over.
Baltimore-Kansas City: Chen is one of those pitchers on my list of one's I can't get right. Admittedly human. But, I said in the beginning of the season that Santana would get torched in the heat in Kansas City in the Summer. It's not going to be quite as hot as I had hoped it would be, but I cannot take the Royals against LHP so it's the Orioles or nothing, at least early on.
Tigers-White Sox: Well, I won't lay -150 on the road, so with Konerko back its safe to say I'd take the White Sox, perhaps even the RL here. As much as they suck at times, with Crain back they probably do have a better bullpen.
Dodgers-Blue Jays: Came close to taking the Dodgers again on Monday, but clearly would have to here if you made me early, if for no other reason than the fact that Toronto hasn't seen Nolasco. I might make a case for the over (square, I know) only because Nolasco doesn't have the luxury of pitching around the pitcher like he would/did/does in the NL.
MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies
Miami Marlins winning the first two games of this four game set against Rockies at Coors Field try for three in-a-row hooking right-hander Jacob Turner (3-2, 2.44 ERA) against lefty Jose De La Rosa (9-5, 3.12 ERA). A rocky road ahead for Miami. The Marlins one of the worst road teams in the league at 16-34 are just 1-4 away this season with Turner, 2-7 on the road since acquiring the hurler last August. Marlins who have yet to win three consecutive road games this season will find it tough slugging against Rockies southpaw. De La Rosa is 5-1 at home this year with a smart 2.96 ERA over nine starts (7-2 TSR) and Rockies have won 12 of his last 14 tossing in front of the friendly home crowd. If that were not enough, Rockies are 2-0 as home favorites this season after losing the first two of a series, a perfect 7-0 with De La Rosa after a loss the previous game.
Cleveland at Seattle: Preview & Pick
Sportspic.com
A getaway game in Seattle is the focus of today’s baseball betting outlook, with the Seattle Mariners hosting the Cleveland Indians in the third and final game of their series this afternoon at Safeco Field.
The Mariners are -115 home favorites, with a run total of 8.5, according to the current betting odds at Bovada
Joe Saunders will toe the slab for the Mariners, bringing a 9-8 record to the hill with a 4.28 ERA. His ERA at Safeco during this first season with Seattle stands out, since it’s a full two earned runs less than in opposing stadiums.
Saunders is on a four-game winning streak, and is riding a 1.73 ERA during this stretch. In his last home effort, he allowed no runs on five hits in an 8-3 win over the Los Angeles Angels on July 12.
Fellow portsider Scott Kazmir will start for the Indians, sporting a 5-4 record and 4.30 ERA in what has become an effective comeback season. In his last six starts, Kazmir is 1-0 with a 1.95 ERA, and is coming off a six-inning effort at Minnesota that saw him allow just two runs on two hits.
Keeping the score down is what Kazmir has done with increasing regularity for the Tribe. The Under is 6-3 when he starts on the road this year, and in his last 10 overall starts, the Under has cashed eight out of 10 times.
The Indians as a team have made Under bettors happy of late when they take on a lefthander away from Progressive Field. That’s because the Under has won five of seven times overall, and three of the last four times when the game has been played during the day.
Having two southpaws face each other is anything but rare, but in baseball betting circles, it brings up this important fact; in the last 10 games in which a home favorite lefty is facing another southpaw, the Under has a 9-1 winning record.
In addition, the last six meetings in MLB between dueling lefthanders with a total over 8 has seen the Under emerge as the best call five times.
Another item of interest stems from the higher-than usual run total of 8.5 for this afternoon’s game. Since 2010, when the Mariners have a home day game with a total over 8, the Under has come through on four of six occasions.
Neither team is known for having a potent offense, which helps bolster the case for the Under, but in the end, the steady hurling of both starters is enough to make the free MLB pick for this afternoon
Play Seattle-Cleveland Under 8.5
Wednesday's MLB National League Betting Cheat Sheet
By Covers.com
Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals (-141, 7)
Hot pitching stat: Nationals pitcher Stephen Strasburg is 2-0 with 35 strikeouts in 20 innings over three outings against the Pirates.
Hot batting stat: Pittsburgh C Russell Martin had three hits Tuesday and is 5-for-7 in the series.
Weather: Temperatures in the high 70s with a 22 percent chance of early thundershowers and winds blowing north at 7 mph.
Key betting note: Pirates are 8-1 in their last nine games as road underdogs.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Toronto Blue Jays (-111, 9.5)
Key pitching stat: Jays RHP Esmil Rogers is 0-1 with a 5.52 ERA and 31 strikeouts in 31 career innings against the Dodgers.
Key batting stat: Blue Jays RF Jose Bautista returned to the No. 3 spot in the batting order Tuesday and went 2-for-4 with a homer. The two-time major-league home run champion had hit second in 15 straight games.
Weather: Temperatures in the high 50s with winds blowing north at 17 mph with the roof of Rogers Centre open.
Key betting note: The Dodgers are 7-0 in their last seven games as underdogs.
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets (+119, 7.5)
Hot pitching stat: Atlanta pitcher Tim Hudson is 16-10 with a 3.52 ERA in 29 career starts against New York.
Hot batting stat: Mets 1B Ike Davis has RBIs in consecutive games for the first time since April 18-19.
Weather: Temperatures in the high 70s with a 20 percent chance of rain early on. Winds blowing NNW at 8 mph.
Key betting note: Braves are 6-1 in their last seven games following a loss.
San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers (-150, 8.5)
Key pitching stat: Milwaukee's pitchers have given up 21 hits in the first two games of the series.
Key batting stat: San Diego’s sixth, seventh and eighth hitters combined to go 9-for-13 with five RBIs and four runs scored Tuesday.
Weather: Temperatures in the mid 60s with partly cloudy skies and winds blowing ENE at 5 mph.
Key betting note: Under is 9-0 in Brewers' last nine home games.
Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals (-166, 8.5)
Key pitching stat: Phillies LHP John Lannan has fared well in seven starts against the Cardinals, going 2-2 with a 2.53 ERA.
Key batting stat: The last time the Philies scored one run or fewer in three straight games was from May 25-27, 2010.
Weather: Temperatures in the high 70s with clear skies and winds blowing NNE at 6 mph.
Key betting note: Phillies are 0-4 in their last four games as underdogs between +151 to +200.
Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies (-162, 9.5)
Key pitching stat: Rockies LHP Jorge De La Rosa has allowed three runs or fewer in each of his last seven starts, but is only 2-2 during that span.
Key batting stat: Marlins RF Giancarlo Stanton homered Tuesday and has seven in 31 at-bats at Coors Field.
Weather: Temperatures in the low 80s with a 43 percent chance of thundershowers and winds blowing south at 8 mph.
Key betting note: Under is 7-0 in Marlins' last seven games overall.
Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks (-135, 8)
Key pitching stat: D-backs RHP Ian Kennedy has not won since June 1 and has absorbed the loss in each of his last three starts.
Key batting stat: Chicago rookie OF Junior Lake has homered in each of the first two games of the series and is 12-for-22 in his first five major-league contests.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the high 90s with a 10 percent chance of thundershowers and winds blowing west at 9 mph.
Key betting note: Over is 16-5 in umpire Angel Hernandez's last 21 games behind home plate.
Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants (+104, 7.5)
Key pitching stat: Cincinnati punished starting pitchers Tim Lincecum, Eric Surkamp and Barry Zito in the first three games of the series, but they’ve failed to score in 16 innings against the Giants’ bullpen.
Key batting stat: Reds OF/INF Todd Frazier has recorded seven hits and six RBIs in the first three games of the series.
Weather: Temperatures in the high 59s with partly cloudy skies and winds blowing west at 11 mph.
Key betting note: Giants are 6-20 in their last 26 games as underdogs.
Wednesday's MLB American League Betting Cheat Sheet
By Covers.com
Oakland A's at Houston Astros (+140, 8)
Cold pitching stat: A's righty A.J. Griffin has given up six home runs in his last four starts.
Cold batting stat: The A's are only averaging 2.5 runs per game over their last 10.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-90s. Wind will blow out to right center at 7 mph.
Key betting note: Yesterday's 5-4 Houston win went over the total by a 1/2-run. It snapped a 10-game under streak for Oakland.
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels (-240, 8)
Hot pitching stat: The under is 10-2 in Jered Weaver's starts this season.
Injury watch: Angels' Josh Hamilton has missed the last two games with an ankle injury and is doubtful. Twins catcher Joe Mauer has left the team temporarily after his wife went into labor with twins.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s and sunny. A wind will blow to right field at just 5 mph.
Key betting note: The Twins have won all four meetings with the Angels this season.
Cleveland Indians at Seattle Mariners (-115, 8.5)
Cold pitching stat: M's lefty Joe Saunders carries a 2-3 record with an ERA of 6.17 in day games compared to 7-5 and 3.49 at night (3:40 p.m. ET game time).
Hot batting stat: Seattle has homered in 25 of its last 27 games.
Weather: Sunny skies and temperatures in the mid-70s. Wind will blow from third base to first base at 6 mph.
Key betting note: The Mariners have won eight straight games. They were faves (or a small dog) of -130 or less in seven of those games.
Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox (+105, 9)
Hot pitching stat: Red Sox lefty Doubrant has allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his last six starts
Hot batting stat: Fenway Park is the second highest scoring park in the majors averaging 9.29 runs per game. Toronto's Rogers Center is first.
Weather: There is tiny chance of showers at game time, changing quickly to partly cloudy skies. The wind will blow from right to left field at 6 mph.
Key betting note: Nine of the last 10 Rays games have played under the total.
New York Yankees at Texas Rangers (-165, 9)
Hot pitching stat: Newly acquired Rangers starter Matt Garza makes his Texas debut. He won his last five starts with the Cubs before the move.
Cold batting stat: Texas has scored three runs or fewer in seven of its last 10 games. The under is 7-1-2 during that stretch.
Weather: Temperatures steamy in the high-90s and sunny skies. Wind will blow in from left to right at 7 mph.
Key betting note: Yankees starter Andy Pettitte has allowed at least four runs in each of his last seven starts.
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox (+115, 8)
Cold pitching stat: Anibal Sanchez gave up a grand slam in a 6-3 loss on July 11, his only start against the White Sox.
Hot hitting stat: Detroit is the top hitting team in the majors with a .280 avg and the Tigers are the AL's best 'over' team at 53-44-2.
Weather: Temperatures in the high-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow from left to right at 7 mph.
Key betting note: The Tigers lead the division by 3.5 games but they are a horrible bet this year with over $1,000 lost for the $100 per game bettor.
Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals (-110, 8)
Hot pitching stat: O's starter Wei-Yen Chen is 3-0 with a 0.98 ERA in his last three starts.
Cold batting stat: The Royals are hitting .229 with 2.59 runs per nine innings over their past 10 games.
Weather: Sunny skies with temperatures in the in the low-80s. The wind will blow in from center field at 6 mph.
Key betting note: The under is 8-2-1 in the O's last 11 road games.
Interleague
Los Angeles Dodgers at Toronto Blue Jays (-111, 9.5)
Key pitching stat: Jays RHP Esmil Rogers is 0-1 with a 5.52 ERA and 31 strikeouts in 31 career innings against the Dodgers.
Key batting stat: Blue Jays RF Jose Bautista returned to the No. 3 spot in the batting order Tuesday and went 2-for-4 with a homer. The two-time major-league home run champion had hit second in 15 straight games.
Weather: Temperatures in the high 50s with winds blowing north at 17 mph with the roof of Rogers Centre open.
Key betting note: The Dodgers are 7-0 in their last seven games as underdogs.
Wednesday's NL Action
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Pirates at Nationals
Probables: F. Liriano (9-4, 2.44 ERA) vs. S. Strasburg (5-7, 2.97 ERA)
Series recap: Pittsburgh silenced Washington's struggling bats on Tuesday, 5-1 to take the second straight game in this set. The Pirates cashed as short underdogs, while the 'under' of 8½ came through.
Recent streaks: After losing of eight of 11 in mid-July, the Pirates have rebounded with three consecutive victories. Pittsburgh has won 10 of its past 14 games away from PNC Park, while Washington has dropped all five games since the All-Star break. The Nats have won just once since July 10, a 1-8 stretch, while scoring three runs or less seven times.
Braves at Mets
Probables: T. Hudson (7-7, 4.08 ERA) vs. J. Hefner (4-7, 3.93 ERA)
Series recap: Atlanta rallied for two runs in the ninth inning of the opener, 2-1 on Monday, but its offense stalled in Tuesday's 4-1 defeat. The Mets overcame an early solo homer to cash as $1.20 underdogs, while beating the Braves for the fourth time in six tries.
Recent streaks: The Braves are now 1-7 in their last eight games off a win, while posting a 6-1 record the previous seven contests off a loss. The Mets are playing better of late with wins in eight of their last 12 trips to the field, including a 6-2 mark to the 'under' the past eight contests.
Padres at Brewers
Probables: S. O'Sullivan (0-1, 6.43 ERA) vs. K. Lohse (6-7, 3.49 ERA)
Series recap: Since the Ryan Braun suspension news broke, the Brewers have been unable to pick up a victory. The Padres grabbed up a second straight triumph at Miller Park on Tuesday, 6-2 as $1.20 underdogs. Each of the first two games in this series barely finished 'under' the total of 8 ½.
Recent streaks: Milwaukee is riding a solid 12-1 'under' stretch, including nine straight 'unders' at Miller Park. The Padres haven't won three consecutive road games since pulling off a sweep over the Dodgers in mid-April, while going 3-1 on the highway since dropping 10 straight away from Petco Park.
Phillies at Cardinals
Probables: J. Lannan (2-3, 3.76 ERA) vs. J. Westbrook (6-4, 2.88 ERA)
Series recap: St. Louis grabbed the opener, 4-1 as heavy home favorites on Tuesday. The Redbirds have been listed as at least a $1.90 'chalk' in all four games since the All-Star break, while St. Louis improved to 3-2 against Philadelphia this season.
Recent streaks: The Phillies have lost three straight games since winning three in a row, while scoring just five runs during this skid. Since getting swept by the Rangers, the Cardinals have won eight of their past nine at Busch Stadium, even though seven of those victories came against last-place opponents (Marlins, Padres, and Astros).
Marlins at Rockies
Probables: J. Turner (3-2, 2.44 ERA) vs. J. De La Rosa (9-5, 3.12 ERA)
Series recap: The inept Miami offense found a way to plate some runs the last two nights, including in Tuesday's 4-2 victory. Miami cashed again in the road 'dog role, while the game easily stayed 'under' the total of nine.
Recent streaks: The Marlins are in the midst of seven consecutive 'unders,' which included three games in which they were blanked at Milwaukee. Colorado's hot start to the season has fallen by the wayside by posting a 7-11 record this month. The Rockies have lost three straight games at home four times this season, so don't expect Colorado to automatically "bounce back" tonight.
Cubs at Diamondbacks
Probables: J. Samardzija (6-9, 3.91 ERA) vs. I. Kennedy (3-7, 5.29 ERA)
Series recap: Arizona's offense busted out late in a 10-4 rout of Chicago last night, as all ten runs came in the fifth inning or later. The D-Backs bounced back as heavy favorites after losing the series opener to the Cubs on Monday, 4-2.
Recent streaks: Arizona has lost four of its past six games, while dropping six of Kennedy's previous seven starts. The Cubs have been up and down of late by posting an 8-6 record the last 14 games, while compiling a 5-1 mark the last six off a road loss.
Reds at Giants
Probables: M. Leake (9-4, 2.79 ERA) vs. C. Gaudin (4-1, 2.15 ERA)
Series recap: Cincinnati trounced San Francisco in the opener, 11-0 on Monday in the road 'dog role. The two teams split an odd doubleheader last night as the Giants won the nightcap as the 'away' team, 5-3 in a make-up game from a rain-out in Cincinnati on July 4. The victory was the first for the Giants in six tries against the Reds this season, coming off last season's improbable comeback in the NLDS.
Recent streaks: The Reds have won each of their last four games off a loss, while going 5-2 in their last seven road games. The Giants snapped a three-game skid with Tuesday's victory, while San Francisco is 3-8 in its previous 11 home contests.