MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Wednesday, July 26th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Brewers @ Nationals
Nelson is 3-1, 3.52 in his last five starts; under is 6-1 in his last seven.. Brewers are 5-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-10-2
Gonzalez is 1-4, 2.45 in his last five starts (under 4-1). Washington lost his last five home starts-first 5-inning record with him: 12-5-3
Brewers lost seven of last nine games; under is 8-2 in their last ten. Washington is 8-3 in its last 11 games; under is 6-1 in their last seven games.
Rockies @ Cardinals
Hoffman is 1-1, 8.34 in his last three starts; over is 7-4 in his MLB starts. Colorado is 4-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-4
Martinez is 0-3, 5.14 in his last six starts; four of his last five starts went over. Cardinals are 6-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-10-2
Rockies won six of last nine games; over is 9-2 in their last 11. St Louis won its last four home games; under is 10-3-1 in their last 14 games.
Braves @ Diamondbacks
Blair is making his first ’17 start; he is 2-7, 7.59 in 15 major league starts and is 6-5, 4.86 in 18 AAA starts this season.
Corbin is 1-3, 2.78 in his last six starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five. Arizona is 6-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-10-3
Braves lost six of last nine games; over is 6-0-1 in their last seven. Arizona lost five of last seven home games; under is 6-3-1 in their last ten.
Mets @ Padres
Matz is 0-2, 13.07 in his last three starts; over is 5-3 in his starts this year. New York is 2-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-5-1
Chacin is 3-0, 2.35 in his last four starts; under is 5-1-1 in his last seven. San Diego is 6-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-11-2
Mets won six of last seven games; over is 4-1 in their last five games. San Diego lost three of last four games; over is 9-2-1 in their last 12.
Pirates @ Giants
Williams is 1-1, 5.11 in his last eight starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. Pirates are 4-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-5-1
Samardzija is 0-2, 8.31 in his last three starts; over is 6-3-1 in his last ten. Giants are 3-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-12-5
Pirates are 13-5 in last 17 games; over is 4-1 in their last five games. Giants lost four of last six games; over is 9-4-1 in their last 14 games.
American League
A’s @ Blue Jays
Blackburn is 1-1, 3.33 in four starts this year (over 2-1-1). A’s are 1-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-0-2
Estrada is 0-5, 9.52 in his last nine starts; over is 5-1 in his last six. Toronto is 3-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-11-3
Oakland lost six of last eight games; under is 5-2 in their last seven road games. Toronto won three of last four home games; under is 3-1 in their last four games.
Angels @ Indians
Nolasco is 0-2, 9.88 in his last three starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five. Angels are 2-8 in his road starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 6-10-9
Carrasco is 2-1, 3.46 in his last four starts; under is 5-3 in his last eight. Indians won his last five home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-6-1
Angels won three of last five games; under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 home games. Cleveland won eight of last nine home games; over is 4-2 in their last six overall.
Royals @ Tigers
Kennedy is 0-0, 5.94 in his last three starts; over is 10-3-1 in his last 14 starts. Royals are 5-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-10-3
Sanchez is 2-0, 5.09 in his last three starts; Detroit scored 25 runs in his last four starts. Over is 3-3 in his starts this year. Tigers are 3-0 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-1-1
Royals won their last seven games; under is 10-3-1 in their last 13. Detroit lost five of last seven games; under is 6-1-1 in their last eight home tilts.
Orioles @ Rays
Jimenez is 1-3, 9.95 in his last four starts; over is 10-4-1 in his starts this year. Orioles are 4-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-9-1
Cobb is 2-0, 1.54 in his last three starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Rays split his eight home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-5-3
Orioles won six of last nine games; over is 11-4-1 in their last 16. Tampa Bay lost five of its last six games; under is 8-3-2 in their last 13.
Boston @ Seattle
Sale is 4-1, 1.70 in his last six starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Red Sox are 7-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-3-6
Moore is 0-2, 6.26 in his last four starts (under 3-1). Seattle is 1-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-2-2
Boston lost five of last six games (over 4-2). Mariners won nine of their last 12 games; under is 8-5 in their last 13.
Interleague
Cubs @ White Sox
Arrieta is 2-1, 2.84 in his last four starts; over is 12-7 in his last 19 starts. Cubs are 6-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-7-2
Shields is 0-1, 9.60 in his last three starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. White Sox are 2-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-4-2
White Sox are 1-9 since All-Star break; under is 3-0-1 in their last four games. Cubs are 9-2 since All-Star break; under is 6-2-1 in their last nine games.
Astros @ Phillies
Fiers is 2-0, 1.93 in his last two starts; under is 5-3 in his last eight. Houston is 7-3 in his road starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 9-7-3
Nola is 4-1, 1.70 in his last six starts; his last four starts stayed under. Philly is 4-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-3-5
Astros are 8-4 in last 12 games; over is 10-2 in their last 12 road games. Philly lost three of last four games (over 3-1).
Cincinnati @ New York
Bailey is 2-4, 8.56 in six starts this year; under is 3-1 in his last four. Reds are 2-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-4-1
Severino is 1-0, 1.71 in his last three starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. New York is 5-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-8-3
Reds lost 10 of last 12 games; under is 7-2 in their last nine games. New York won four of last five games; under is 11-2-1 in their last 14 games.
Marlins @ Rangers
Urena is 2-2, 5.76 in his last five starts; under is 5-1-1 in his last seven. Miami is 6-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-5-2
Darvish is 0-3, 5.01 in his last five starts; under is 13-1-1 in his last 15 starts. Texas is 4-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-8-6
Miami won eight of last 11 road games; under is 7-3 in their last ten games overall. Texas won four of its last five games; under is 10-5-1 in their last 16 games.
Twins @ Dodgers
Santana is 1-3, 6.08 in his last four starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Twins are 7-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-6-3
Wood is 5-1, 2.87 in his last six starts (under 4-2). Dodgers are 7-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-3-1
Twins are 4-9 in last 13 games; under is 7-3 in their last ten games. Dodgers are 18-3 in last 21 games; over is 5-1-1 in their last seven games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Mil-Wsh: Davies 13-7; Jackson 1-0
Col-StL: Gray 6-1; Lynn 9-11
Atl-Az: Foltynewicz 11-7 (8-0 last 8 ); Walker 10-5
NY-SD: Lugo 5-2; Chacin 11-9
Pitt-SF: Taillon 7-6; Bumgarner 0-6
American League
A’s-Tor: Gray 8-7; Valdez 0-0
KC-Det: Duffy 7-8; Fulmer 11-8
LAA-Clev: Chavez 8-11; Clevinger 6-6
Balt-TB: Miley 10-10; Faria 6-2
Bos-Sea: Pomeranz 13-6; Hernandez 5-6
Interleague
Chi-Chi: Rodon 1-3; Lackey 9-9
Hst-Phil: Morton 8-5; Pivetta 4-9
Cin-NY: Castillo 2-4; Montgomery 7-11
Mia-Tex: Straily 11-9; Hamels 5-5
Minn-LA: Berrios 9-4; Maeda 11-4
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning
National League
Mil-Wsh: Davies 8-20; Jackson 1-1
Col-StL: Gray 1-7; Lynn 6-20
Atl-Az: Foltynewicz 4-18; Walker 6-15
NY-SD: Lugo 2-7; Chacin 8-20
Pitt-SF: Taillon 2-13; Bumgarner 1-6
American League
A’s-Tor: Gray 2-15; Valdez 0-0
KC-Det: Duffy 3-15; Fulmer 6-19
LAA-Clev: Chavez 4-19; Clevinger 1-12
Balt-TB: Miley 8-20; Faria 2-8
Bos-Sea: Pomeranz 5-19; Hernandez 6-11
Interleague
Chi-Chi: Rodon 2-4; Lackey 10-18
Hst-Phil: Morton 2-13; Pivetta 5-13
Cin-NY: Castillo 2-6; Montgomery 4-18
Mia-Tex: Straily 5-20; Hamels 4-10
Minn-LA: Berrios 3-13; Maeda 6-15
Umpires
National League
Col-StL: Three of last four Culbreth games went over.
Atl-Az: Five of last six Whitson games went over total.
NY-SD: Last three Hallion games went over the total.
Pitt-SF: Last three Meals games went over the total.
American League
A’s-Tor: Over is 5-3 in last eight Timmons games.
KC-Det: Six of last nine Wolf games stayed under.
Balt-TB: Over is 4-0-3 in last seven Wendelstedt games.
Bos-Sea: Over is 8-3 in last eleven Demuth games.
Interleague
Chi-Chi: Last three Barksdale games went over total.
Hst-Phil: Over is 8-3 in last eleven Iassogna games.
Mia-Tex: Last four Drake games stayed under the total.
Minn-LA: Four of last six LBarrett games stayed under.
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 47-39 AL, favorites -$857
AL @ NL– 52-48 NL, favorites -$866
Total: 95-91 AL, favorites -$1,723
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 47-42-2
AL @ NL: Over 53-40-3
Total: Over 100-82-5
Armadillosports.com
Wednesday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Royals (7-0 past seven overall)
The Royals have ripped off seven consecutive victories, but unfortunately for them they cannot make up any ground on the first-place Indians. Cleveland won its fifth consecutive game in dramatic fashion with a walk-off grand slam from Edwin Encarnacion on Tuesday. Still, the Royals continue to get good pitching and timely hitting in low-scoring games lately. The Royals are 7-0 over their past seven against AL Central teams, 7-0 over their past seven against teams with a losing record and 19-7 over their past 26 games vs. right-handed starting pitching. Kansas City has also been successful on 13 of their past 19 road outing while winning seven of Ian Kennedy's past eight outings overall.
Coldest team: White Sox (1-10 past 11 games, 8-22 past 30 overall)
On the flip side of things in the AL Central, the White Sox continue to scuffle. They have won just once over the past 11 outings, and they have traded off key pieces to contenders for prospects. As such, they continue to be in full rebuild mode. Bettors have been having a lot of luck fading the Pale Hose lately, as they have won just once over the past 11 overall, they have dropped five in a row at home and they're 2-8 over their past 10 interleague outings. In addition, they're just 1-8 over their past nine following a loss, 1-5 across James Shields' past six outings and 5-11 in their past 16 at home against teams with an overall winning mark.
Hottest pitcher: Chris Sale, Red Sox (12-4, 2.48 ERA)
Sale checks into Wednesday's series finale at Safeco Field with the third-best ERA in the majors at 2.48. He also is tied for the lead in the American League with 12 victories while sitting as the only pitcher in the majors with 200 strikeouts and it's not even August. The Red Sox have won 11 of Sale's past 15 outings, including five of his past seven on the road. He should be the key to snapping their four-game losing skid, and the public seems to think so by backing the Red Sox hard on Wednesday. The Red Sox are also 8-2 over Sale's past 10 when working on four days of rest.
Coldest pitcher: Ricky Nolasco, Angels (4-11, 5.13 ERA)
Nolasco takes the mound at Progressive Field in Cleveland trying to cool off the Indians. They're on a five-game winning streak, and they'll be licking their chops to face the league leader in homers allowed (26). He hasn't faced the Tribe this season, but he has an extensive history against them from his days as a member of the Minnesota Twins. He is 0-2 with a 5.54 ERA over his past six starts and one relief appearance against Cleveland since the start of the 2014 season, and the Indians have clobbered nine homers against him across 39 innings during the span, tied with the White Sox for most of any team in the majors.
Biggest UNDER run: Pirates (27-10-2 past 39 overall)
The 'under' has been a regular occurrence for the Bucs lately, going 27-10-2 over their past 39 games overall. The under is also an impressive 21-6-1 across their past 28 games against a right-handed starter, 6-2-1 in their past nine on the road vs. RHP and 12-2 in their past 14 outings following a loss. In addition, the under is 5-1 in the past six outings by Trevor Williams while going 4-1 over his past five when working on four days of rest. However, the over is 6-0-3 in the past nine meetings in San Francisco, while going 5-2-1 in the past eight meetings overall between these two clubs.
Biggest OVER run: Braves (6-1 past seven overall)
The 'over' continues to hit for the Braves on their west coast road swing. The total has gone over in six of their past seven overall, and five of six on their road trip, including each of the first two games in Arizona. Tuesday's game barely inched over the total (10.5), as Atlanta won 8-3 behind Mike Foltynewicz. Atlanta is averaging 5.8 runs per game over the past six outings while allowing 5.4 runs per game over the past seven outings. The Braves turn to Aaron Blair to start Wednesday, and that usually means plenty of runs. The over is 4-1 over his past five starts, and 3-1-1 in his past five on the road against teams with a winning overall mark. The over is also 8-1 in Atlanta's past nine on the road overall.
Matchup to watch: White Sox vs. Cubs
The Battle of Chicago has been fairly close over the years. However, there is a wide gulf between these two sides right now, as the Cubs are coming off a world championship and challenging for another, while the White Sox have the third-worst winning percentage in baseball, and they're dead last in the American League. The Cubs have won seven straight on the road, and nine of their past 11 overall. The White Sox have lost 22 of their past 30, and five straight at home. However, the two sides split a pair on the north side earlier this week, with the Cubs winning 7-2 on Tuesday and the White Sox winning 3-1 on Monday.
Betcha didn’t know: There have been 127 home runs hit at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia this season, or 2.76 per game. Houston Astros RHP Mike Fiers has served up 21 home runs across 107 2/3 innings over 19 starts, so it's likely we'll see quite a few homers in Wednesday's series finale. Aaron Nola has been a little better for the Phillies, serving up just five homers across 47 1/3 innings at home, and one home every 9.33 innings overall on the season.He is also 4-3 with a 3.23 ERA and .220 opponent batting average over seven starts at 'The Vault'.
Biggest public favorite: Yankees (-240) vs. Reds
Biggest public underdog: Twins (+230) at Dodgers
Biggest line move: Dodgers (-205 to -230) vs. Twins
MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
Pittsburgh at San Francisco (-140); Total: 8
After Trevor Williams got steamed and was a winner in Colorado, the market is against him for Wednesday’s start at AT&T Park against Jeff Samardzija and the Giants. It’s interesting how the betting market works in that regard. Samardzija has been the subject of some trade speculation and it looks like the Giants are ready to deal, as Eduardo Nunez found out late last night that he was headed to Boston.
The market is gambling on the big ERA/xFIP discrepancy that Samardzija has had all season long. The right-hander has a 5.05 ERA with a 3.59 FIP and a 3.14 xFIP. He’s struck out well over a batter per inning with the second-best walk rate in baseball behind Josh Tomlin. Sure, Samardzija shows some positive regression in his 64.8 percent LOB%, but the one thing that bettors playing by these numbers cannot wrap their heads around is that the command sometimes isn’t there. Samardzija has allowed 21 HR in 20 starts, which is just three fewer than he allowed in 32 starts and 203.1 innings of work last season. He also has a .333 BABIP against. He’s probably throwing too many strikes, to be completely honest.
When you look at Samardzija’s career rates, his BABIP is 36 points too high. His HR/FB% is 5.7 percent higher than his career rate. His LOB% is down nearly six percent off his career rate and nearly 10 percent off of last season’s rate. All of these things cannot be denied, but sometimes pitchers just don’t reach that level because they aren’t throwing enough quality strikes.
Maybe Samardzija does hit his positive regression, but he’s also allowed 16 runs on 26 hits in his last three starts covering 17.1 innings of work. Maybe we need to pump the brakes and see some improvements before we start firing away on him.
Trevor Williams isn’t great. We all know that. He has a 4.74 ERA with a 4.00 FIP and a 4.46 xFIP in his 87.1 innings this season. He has been brought down by a 64.9 percent LOB%, but he doesn’t give up a lot of home runs, which is why his FIP sits at 4.00, despite a very low strikeout rate. With an offense like the Giants, which has been bad all season and just lost a player that makes things happen, the Williams profile doesn’t bother me that much.
I don’t think we’ll see a whole lot more movement on this number from where it is, but I’m happy to see value coming in on Pittsburgh. I like the underdog here, even with the West Coast day game element in play.
Houston (-130) at Philadelphia; Total: 8
Aaron Nola has been pretty much the only Phillies start that the market is willing to back. So far, that Nola money hasn’t come in and that’s because of the opponent. The Phillies are hosting the Houston Astros this evening. The Astros are one of baseball’s best, so the betting market may be hoping some public investment hits the board for two teams separated by 32 games in the standings. The Astros are 67-33 and the Phillies are 34-64. Who would want to take the Phillies in this scenario?
Mike Fiers got off to such a bad start this season that his advanced stats are trying to play catch up. Fiers has a 3.59 ERA with a 4.92 FIP and a 4.15 xFIP. His HR/FB% finally came down below 20 percent last time out. It was north of 30 percent for a little while. Fiers made some adjustments to his pitch usage and also made a mechanical adjustment about 10 starts ago. Over those last 10 starts, Fiers has only allowed three home runs in 61 innings of work with 69 strikeouts and 21 walks. He has a 2.36/2.80/3.59 pitcher slash in that span. He has 20 strikeouts against one walk over his last two starts. His turnaround is one of the more dramatic in-season turnarounds we’ve seen in a while.
Still, Aaron Nola is Aaron Nola. The right-hander has a 3.38 ERA with a 3.42 FIP and a 3.56 xFIP. He has 97 strikeouts in 93.1 innings of work with strong peripherals across the board. As mentioned, he is the one Phillies start that gets love in the betting market. I think it’ll show up a little bit later in the day, after Houston gets pushed up into the -140 range.
As much as I love Nola, I won’t be playing him here. The adjustments that Fiers made look pretty legit to me. His 46 percent GB% and .268 BABIP are pretty good indicators that the changes that he has made have given him a big boost in the command department. If anything, I’d look to take the Astros and be thankful that the presence of Nola has this game in a pretty reasonable range.
Milwaukee at Washington (-130); Total: 9
This is why it’s so important to listen to The Bettor’s Box, read these write-ups, and do your own research. I’ve mentioned the signs of regression present in Gio Gonzalez’s profile. If you remembered that, you hit this number on the overnights when it opened 20 cents better at Bookmaker.
The Brewers have hit lefties pretty well throughout the season. Their ace, Jimmy Nelson, is on the hill, but it’s the matchup against Gonzalez that I’m focused on. Even after his poor start last time out, with four runs allowed on five hits in 5.2 innings of work with three walks and three strikeouts, there’s a lot of regression left to come. Gonzalez has a 2.83 ERA with a 4.15 FIP and a 4.31 xFIP. He has a .252 BABIP against and an 84.4 percent LOB%. BABIP and LOB% are two great indicators of luck and variance and how well pitchers have run. Gonzalez has run extremely well, as you can see from the numbers. That’s the type of guy I want to look to fade.
Nelson has a tough assignment with the Nationals, so I understand the reservations in backing him. He has a 3.43 ERA with a 3.23 FIP and a 3.23 xFIP. He’s struck out 132 in 120.2 innings of work. Huge gains in the walk department have allowed Nelson to work deeper into games and be far more efficient than he was last season. He’s still dealing with a .330 BABIP against, but it hasn’t been a killer for him because of the big spike in strikeouts. Nelson has eight fewer strikeouts in 58.2 fewer innings compared to last season.
If you want to stay away from Milwaukee, at the very least, play the Brewers team total over. That’s a good play given their prowess against southpaws and also with Gonzalez’s stats. If that also means a play on the underdog here, that’s your prerogative.
Kansas City at Detroit (-120); Total: 10
The Royals just keep winning games. Again, they’ve really been on the positive side of variance. I mentioned their weekend sweep of the White Sox was full of games that were tied or the Royals were trailing in the middle innings. They won in extras over the Tigers in the first game of the series and then took a 3-1 decision last night. They’re just running well right now and there’s not much you can do about it if you’ve been looking to fade them.
Tonight isn’t really a spot to fade them either. Ian Kennedy hasn’t been very good, but neither has Anibal Sanchez. I’ve talked about it before, but I don’t like these games of handicapping “who will suck less?”. That’s not really my goal when breaking down a baseball game.
I will say this: The Royals have the much better bullpen and I won’t touch the Tigers right now unless they’re facing a bad left-hander. There’s far too much wrong with this team to put money on them. Kansas City is basically an auto play with how they’re running and the level of competition that they’ve been playing against. The market doesn’t trust them. Long-term, the projections aren’t pretty. I fully understand all of those things. But, right now, they’re living right and they’re playing inferior competition.
Red-hot Cubs face White Sox
By: StatFox.com
The Cubs will be going for their fourth win in five games when they meet the White Sox on Wednesday.
The Cubs have been on a roll lately, as they have now won nine of their past 11 games and currently sit just 0.5 games back in the NL Central. The defending World Series champs had their fans feeling frightened in the first half of the season, but it seems as though they are ready to step things up and give themselves another shot at a World Series crown. It would, however, be big to win games like these against the White Sox, as they can’t afford to lose to teams that don’t have much to gain with a victory. The White Sox have lost 10 of their past 11 games and have almost no chance of making the postseason this season. They do, however, want to beat their cross-town rivals, but that is not going to be easy. The starters in this Wednesday night matchup are set to be RHP Jake Arrieta (9-7, 4.11 ERA, 111 K) for the Cubs and RHP James Shields (2-2, 5.79 ERA, 34 K) for the White Sox. Arrieta has had a bit of a down year for the Cubs this season, but they’ll still feel confident with him on the mound against Shields. The Cubs are a ridiculous 30-7 against the money line as a road favorite of -125 or more over the past two seasons with Arrieta on the mound.
The Cubs are rolling right now, but they’ll need Jake Arrieta to start performing like the guy he has been for the past few seasons now. His 4.11 ERA would be the highest number he’s posted since playing for the Orioles, and Chicago desperately wants him to get back to the 3.50 area. He should be able to turn in a good performance in this one, as he is facing a White Sox team that is really struggling right now. Offensively, the Cubs have a number of guys that should be able to step it up in this one. The ones to really look out for are, however, 3B Kris Bryant (.278, 19 HR, 42 RBI) and 1B Anthony Rizzo (.253 BA, 23 HR, 62 RBI). Bryant has been hot lately, as he has seen his average rise from .265 to .278 over the past 10 games. He badly struggled in the first half of the year, but a return to the mean was likely always going to happen. Look for him to continue to hit well moving forward. Rizzo, meanwhile, is due for a homer. It’s been seven games since he went yard, and he should be able to do just that against Shields here.
The White Sox aren’t playing for much at this point of the year, but they definitely will want to play whatever part they can in trying to prevent the Cubs from making it to the postseason. While there is still a lot of baseball to be played moving forward, a few more wins over the Cubs in this series would certainly set the defending champs back. If they are going to find a way to win then Shields is going to need to come through on the mound. He was absolutely awful in his last time out, allowing six earned runs on 10 hits in 4.1 innings of work. The White Sox can’t win unless he is far better than that. Offensively, they can use somebody like 1B Jose Abreu (.296 BA, 16 HR, 61 RBI) coming up big. Abreu is having a great season for Chicago, and it’d be huge if he can go yard here.
MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com
Double-Play Picks
Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies (+105, 8 )
Jose Altuve is the epitome of the Astros being on another level in the American League this year.
Diminutive in height measurements only, the Houston second baseman is on an absolute tear. Since the start of June (44 games) he is hitting a jaw-droppingly good .424 with a 1.147 OPS, but what’s crazier still is that he is still trending upward.
In July alone (18 games), Altuve is hitting .494 with a 1.287 OPS. Wow. So, simply put, there is no one in the baseball universe on his level right now. Just like the Astros in the American League.
Houston sits at 67-33 through the team’s first 100 games, putting them 17 games ahead of the Mariners in the AL West and 13 games ahead of the Indians and Red Sox for the American League lead.
The Astros take their show on the road Wednesday when they visit the Phillies and, to make things tougher for Philly, Houston loves playing on the road. The Astros are a very impressive 37-12 on the road this season, but the most remarkable thing about that number is that they are 36-13 against the runline away from Minute Maid Park.
Houston sends Mike Fiers to the mound for this interleague showdown and the right-hander has been dealing in his last four starts. Fiers is 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.083 WHIP.
The Phillies counter with Aaron Nola, who has been hot himself of late (4-1, 1.70 ERA), but he hasn’t had to deal with a team like the Astros over that stretch. Check this out, Houston ranks first in runs/game (5.99), team average (.292), OPS (.860) and home runs (165).
Like we said Nola is good, but it’s the Phillies versus a team on another level. Even on the road, this value is too great to pass up.
Pick: Astros -125
Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Indians (-200, 9)
The Indians took the opening game of this three-game series with a thrilling 11-7 extra inning win Tuesday night over the visiting Angels. The Angels showed some guts coming back from an early 7-0 deficit, but eventually fell to the powerful Indians on an eleventh inning walk-off grand slam by Edwin Encarnacion.
The Tribe is heating up at just the right time as the Royals are nipping at their heals for the lead in the American League Central division. The Indians have won eight of their last nine home games and in those eight victories they have covered -1.5 seven times.
Indians' co-ace Carlos Carrasco gets the ball at Progressive Field this evening. Despite The Tribe dropping his last two starts, those were on the road. At home they have won Carrasco's last five outings and have covered the runline in his last four home starts.
The Angels will run Ricky Nolasco out to the hill tonight and he's having a rough season. The Halos have lost seven of Nolasco's last eight road starts and have lost by more than one run in his last five away losses. In his last three starts overall, he owns a 10.66 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, and the Angels have lost all three.
The Indians have won the 10 of the last 11 meetings with the Angels dating back to 2015 and within those 11 games they are 8-0 in the last eight at home and have covered -1.5 in nine of those last 10 wins.
There is something to be said for momentum in baseball, and coming off a walk-off grand slam is a solid momentum builder for tonight's game.
Pick: Indians -1.5 (-105)
Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season To Date: 97-86-9
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox (12-4, 2.48 ERA, $322)
Chris Sale is one of the top candidates for the American League Cy Young Award at this point of the season and he has certainly shown no signs of slowing down.
Over his last four starts, Sale owns a 1.30 ERA with a WHIP of 0.8313 and he has rung up an average of 11.25 strikeouts during that four-game span.
Sale gets the ball in Seattle against the Mariners this afternoon and the Sox are -230 favorites.
Slumping: Jeff Samardzija, San Francisco Giants (4-11, 5.05 ERA, $-835)
Jeff Samardzija is having a rough season to say the least. He currently ranks as the seventh worst starting pitcher on our Starting Pitcher Money list at $-835.
In his last three trips to the mound he has a team win/loss record of 0-3 with an ERA of 8.31 and a WHIP of 1.62.
"The Shark" gets the ball, during Shark Week, at home against the Pirates as a -143 favorite this afternoon.
Wednesday's Top Trends
* Under is 11-0 in the Seattle Mariners' last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 (Sale). Red Sox/Mariners Total: 8.
* The Houston Astros are 9-0 in their last nine vs. National League East. -125 today @ Phillies.
* The Oakland Athletics are 1-10 in the last 11 meetings in Toronto. +150 today @ Blue Jays.
* The Chicago Cubs are 10-1 in their last 11 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. -250 today @ White Sox.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
There is a slight chance of a thunderstorm (35 percent) on the South Side of Chicago late this evening. The Cubs and White Sox should be able to get their game in before the storms roll through, but these things can sometimes be unpredictable.
Our most impactful wind will be blowing in from right in Arlington where the Rangers will welcome the Marlins with a total set at 10.5.
Ump Of The Day
Mark Wegner will be behind the plate this afternoon in The Bronx for the game between the Yankees and Reds.
Wegner's Over/Under record this season is 10-7 and the Over is 7-1-1 in his last nine games calling balls and strikes. The Over is also 5-0-1 in his last six games involving the Yankees and 4-1 in his last five involving the Reds.
The total for this afternoon's game is currently set at 9.