MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Arizona Diamondbacks at Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay the hottest team in the Major League during July posting a 21-4 record stuffing +$1396 into betting accounts including 10-1 (+$680) at the Trop close this mini two game inter-league set vs D'Backs handing the ball to Jeremy Hellickson. The right-hander undefeated in seven starts (6-0, 7-0 TSR) allowing two or less runs in six of the seven brings a 10-3 record with a 4.48 ERA to the mound. Lefthander Wade Miley will handle the starting duties for Arizona sporting a 7-8 record, 3.86 ERA. Miley off 7 2/3 innings of 1 run-ball in a win over Cubbies has posted a 3-1 mark in July over five starts (3-2 TSR) giving up 2 or less runs in four of the five games. Not many negative numbers against Tampa Bay in this one. The Rays are 10-1 (+$868) overall, 6-0 (+$600) at home vs the Senior league and they're 23-10 vs a left-handed starter on the year including 12-5 as a home favorite. In contrast, Arizona has a slew of negative number to overcome. D'Backs are on a 14-22 skid as road underdogs, 0-4 as road underdogs vs the Junior League, 1-7 on the road with Miley following a loss previous night. Given the numbers, look for Rays to remain perfect at the Trop vs NL opponents while moving to 10-2 as a home favorite with Hellickson.
Reds at Padres: Preview & Pick
Bovada.lv
Baseball betting once again returns to the daytime for the Cincinnati Reds as the team closes out an 11-game road trip this afternoon with a getaway game against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park.
The Reds are listed as -133 road favorites, with a run total of 7.5, according to the current betting odds at Bovada
Southpaw Eric Stults will head to the hill for San Diego, bringing just an 8-9 record with a 3.65 ERA. However, looking at the home and away splits is illuminating, since it shows that Stults is 5-1 at home and 3-8 on the road, with an ERA at Petco nearly half the total of his road efforts.
For the Reds, righthander Homer Bailey will make the call, sporting a 5-10 record with a 3.77 ERA. Since pitching his second no-hitter in less than a year on July 2, Bailey has fallen on hard times, with an 0-4 mark and 4.68 ERA.
Those struggles parallel Bailey’s woes away from Cincinnati. Since tossing that first no-hitter at the end of last year, the Reds have lost 10 of Bailey’s 12 road starts, including the hard-luck 2-1 defeat last Friday at Dodger Stadium. The last six times a Bailey start has gone under the run total, the Reds have lost in his next start.
In contrast, Stults has put up outstanding numbers at home since arriving from the Los Angeles Dodgers last season. When the lefty toes the rubber at Petco, the Padres have an eye-opening 13-3 record, including 8-1 in 2013.
Stults’ last start against the Arizona Diamondbacks was a disaster, but the silver lining for San Diego is that the team is 4-1 this season when giving up six or more runs in a starter’s previous effort.
The fact that Stults is a portsider is also bad news for the Reds, since Cincy is just 7-13 against lefthanders, including just one win in the last nine attempts. In addition, Dusty Baker’s squad is just 4-9 this year when facing a southpaw on the road with a total under 8.
This being the final game of the three-game series is yet another nod towards the Padres, since the team has compiled a 16-8 record since the start of last year when playing the final game of a home series. This season, the winning percentage is even higher with seven victories in 10 tries.
Taking an underdog is always a risky proposition, though in this case, the amount of supporting data in favor of San Diego makes it much less risky. Therefore, today’s free MLB Pick is
Play San Diego +113
Wednesday's MLB National League Betting Cheat Sheet
By Covers.com
Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres (+113, 7)
Pitching stat: Reds RHP Homer Bailey is 4-0 in seven career starts against the Padres despite allowing nine homers in 44 innings.
Batting stat: Reds 3B Todd Frazier went 0-for-4 on Tuesday and is hitless in 16 at-bats over the last five games.
Weather: Temperatures in low 70s with partly cloudy skies and winds blowing west at 5 mph.
Key betting stat: Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in San Diego.
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates (+108, 7)
Pitching stat: The Cardinals have lost a season-worst six straight games and have been outscored 28-6 during the stretch.
Batting stat: Pirates CF Andrew McCutchen is 9-for-21 with three doubles and a triple against Cardinals RHP Adam Wainwright.
Weather: Temperatures in low 70s with a 34 percent chance of rain. Winds blowing SSE at 3 mph.
Key betting stat: Pirates are 3-18 in their last 21 games with umpire Chad Fairchild behind home plate.
San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies (-119, 8.5)
Pitching stat: Philadelphia RHP Kyle Kendrick is 2-1 with a 2.81 ERA in six career games (three starts) against the Giants.
Batting stat: The Giants have been outhomered 10-1 over their last 11 games.
Weather: Temperatures in the high 70s with partly cloudy skies and a 14 percent chance of rain. Winds blowing south at 6 mph.
Key betting stat: Over is 20-8-1 in Kendrick's last 29 starts vs. National League West.
Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves (-172, 7.5)
Pitching stat: Atlanta LHP Mike Minor has allowed six earned runs in his last four starts.
Batting stat: Braves 3B Chris Johnson went 2-for-4 on Tuesday to increase his NL-best batting average to .341.
Weather: Temperatures in the mid 70s with a 90 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds blowing SSW at 6 mph.
Key betting stat: Rockies are 7-28 in the last 35 meetings in Atlanta.
New York Mets at Miami Marlins (-108, 7)
Pitching stat: Miami's starting pitchers have allowed three or fewer runs in 32 of the past 37 games.
Batting stat: The Marlins have managed 10 hits in the past two games, after interim hitting coach John Pierson took over for Tino Martinez, who quit after an altercation with players.
Weather: Temperatures in the mid 80s with a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds blowing east at 10 mph.
Key betting stat: Under is 12-2 in Marlins' last 14 overall.
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs (-125, 8)
Pitching stat: The Cubs have 22 blown saves - including both games Tuesday - and have lost nine games when leading or tied entering the ninth inning.
Batting stat: Milwaukee is 38-0 when leading after eight innings and is the only team in the majors that has not lost after taking a lead to the ninth.
Weather: Temperatures in the mid 70s with a 29 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds blowing NNE at 3 mph.
Key betting stat: Over is 27-13-2 in the last 42 meetings in Chicago.
New York Yankees at Los Angeles Dodgers (-181, 6)
Pitching stat: Yankees RHP Hiroki Kuroda has not allowed a run in three of his last four starts spanning 26 innings and has not permitted a home run in that stretch after coughing up five in back-to-back starts.
Batting stat: The Dodgers are riding a streak of eight straight one-run victories, including back-to-back walk-off wins.
Weather: Temperatures in the high 60s with clear skies and winds blowing SSW at 5 mph.
Key betting stat: Yankees are 6-13 in their last 19 games as road underdogs.
Wednesday's MLB American League Betting Cheat Sheet
By Covers.com
Toronto Blue Jays at Oakland A's (-147, 7.5)
Pitching stat: Toronto RHP R.A. Dickey is tied for second in the major leagues with 24 home runs allowed.
Batting stat: The Athletics added 2B Alberto Callaspo from the Angels. Callaspo batted .252 with five home runs and 36 RBIs in 86 games with the Angels.
Weather: Temperatures in the low 60s with partly cloudy skies and winds blowing WSW at 8 mph.
Key betting stat: Blue Jays are 8-2 in their last 10 vs. American League West.
Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles (-219, 9)
Pitching stat: Baltimore LHP Erik Bedard is posting a 1-6 record with a 5.79 ERA and a .296 batting average against on the road.
Batting stat: Baltimore SS J.J. Hardy is showing signs of breaking out of his slump. After going 3-for-22 in his previous six games, Hardy had a two-run single on Tuesday.
Weather: Temperatures in the low 50s with a 27 percent chance of rain. Winds blowing south at 7 mph.
Key betting stat: Astros are 1-9 in the last 10 meetings with Orioles.
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians (-162, 8)
Pitching stat: Chicago RHP Dylan Axelrod has a 4.08 ERA in 17 2-3 career innings against Cleveland.
Batting stat: Cleveland C Yan Gomes is 9-for-22 with seven RBIs in six games against the White Sox this season.
Weather: Temperatures in the mid 70s with a 61 percent chance of thundershowers. Winds will blow NE at 2 mph.
Key betting stat: Indians are 6-0 in their last six during Game 3 of a series.
Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox (-146, 8.5)
Pitching stat: Boston RHP John Lackey saw plenty of the Mariners from his days with the AL West-rival Los Angeles Angels, compiling a 15-10 mark and 3.60 ERA in 30 career starts.
Batting stat: Red Sox 2B Dustin Pedroia homered and had three RBIs Tuesday, ending an 0-for-16 skid with his first extra-base hit since the All-Star break.
Weather: Temperatures in the mid 70s with partly cloudy skies and winds blowing SE at 7 mph.
Key betting stat: Under is 8-0-1 in umpire Gary Darling's last nine games behind home plate.
Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers (-139, 10)
Pitching stat: Los Angeles RHP Jerome Williams is 0-5 in his last eight outings after yielding four runs in five innings against the Athletics Friday.
Batting stat: Los Angeles OF Josh Hamilton is is 4-for-9 with six RBIs in this series against his former club.
Weather: Temperatures in the high 90s with a 10 percent chance of thunderstorms and winds blowing south at 2 mph.
Key betting stat: Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Texas.
Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins (-103, 8.5)
Pitching stat: Royals RHP Jeremy Guthrie is 3-4 over his last eight outings, allowing five or more runs five times in that span.
Batting stat: Kansas City is 9-2 since the All-Star break, hitting .253 and scoring 3.72 runs per game.
Weather: Temperatures in the mid 70s with partly cloudy skies and a 21 percent chance of rain. Winds blowing WNW at 9 mph.
Key betting stat: Royals are 23-9 in Guthrie's last 32 starts.
Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers (-135, 7.5)
Pitching stat: Detroit RHP Justin Verlander has yielded four or more runs in five of his last eight outings.
Batting stat: The Tigers could be without third baseman Miguel Cabrera, who left Tuesday's contest after seven innings as he apparently aggravated the hip injury that sidelined him for four games last week.
Weather: Temperatures in the mid 60s with a 67 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds blowing SSE at 4 mph.
Key betting stat: Over is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Tampa Bay Rays (-173, 8)
Pitching stat: Rays RHP Jeremy Hellickson is 8-1 with a 3.17 ERA in 10 starts since June 1, allowing only four homers while striking out 50 against 12 walks over 59 2-3 innings.
Batting stat: Diamondbacks 2B Aaron Hill, who had two hits Tuesday, is 19-for-44 in his last 12 interleague games.
Weather: N/A
Key betting stat: Rays are 23-7 in their last 30 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.
Wednesday's AL Action
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Night games played in AL parks
Astros at Orioles
Probables: E. Bedard (3-8, 4.28 ERA) vs. M. Gonzalez (8-4, 3.69 ERA)
Series recap: Baltimore overcame an early 3-0 deficit to stun Houston, 4-3 as $2.50 home favorites. The game finished 'under' the total of 8 ½, while the Astros cashed for the second straight game in the +1 ½ role on the run-line.
Current streaks: Since upsetting the Rangers as nearly $3.00 underdogs earlier this month, Houston has won just two of its last nine games on the highway. Despite last night's victory, the Orioles own a 2-5 record the previous seven contests, while their powerful offense has plated just seven runs the last three games.
White Sox at Indians
Probables: Undecided vs. C. Kluber (7-5, 3.74 ERA)
Series recap: Cleveland rallied for the second straight night to beat struggling Chicago, 7-4. The Tribe cashed as $1.90 'chalk' one night after a walk-off homer to beat the Sox on Monday, 3-2.
Current streaks: The Indians have beaten the White Sox six consecutive times, while taking eight of ten meetings this season. Chicago is just 1-8 the last nine games, while Cleveland is riding a nine-game winning streak at Progressive Field.
Mariners at Red Sox
Probables: H. Iwakuma (10-4, 2.87 ERA) vs. J. Lackey (7-8, 3.19 ERA)
Series recap: Boston rebounded from Monday's defeat to Tampa Bay by beating Seattle in the series opener, 8-2. The Sox beat the M's for the fourth straight time, while the game 'pushed' with a closing total of 10.
Current streaks: Since winning eight consecutive games, the Mariners have dropped four of their past six contests. In the four losses, the Seattle offense has scored two runs or less, while the M's own a 2-7 record the last nine games against AL East foes. The Red Sox are riding an 11-1-1 stretch to the 'under' the past 13 contests at Fenway Park, while Boston is 11-3 against the AL West at home this season.
Diamondbacks at Rays
Probables: W. Miley (7-8, 3.86 ERA) vs. J. Hellickson (10-3, 4.48 ERA)
Series recap: Tampa Bay keeps winning by holding off Arizona, 5-2 in the Rays' first home game since the All-Star break. The Rays cashed as $1.65 favorites, while improving to 12-1 the last 13 games at Tropicana Field.
Current streaks: The 'under' has hit in seven straight games for the Rays at Tropicana Field, while winning 23 of their last 27 games overall. Since July 5, the D-Backs have played only four road contests, as Arizona is 0-6 in its last Game 2's of an away series.
Angels at Rangers
Probables: J. Williams (5-7, 4.85 ERA) vs. M. Perez (3-3, 4.37 ERA)
Series recap: Texas rallied again to stun Los Angeles, 14-11 in 10 innings on Tuesday. The Rangers won it for a second straight night with a walk-off homer, while overcoming a late four-run deficit.
Current streaks: The Rangers improved to 6-2 in eight meetings with the Angels this season, including a 4-1 mark in Arlington. Los Angeles has dropped eight of its last 10 contests, while posting a 1-8 record in its previous nine road games within the division.
Royals at Twins
Probables: J. Guthrie (10-7, 4.27 ERA) vs. K. Correia (7-7, 4.56 ERA)
Series recap: Kansas City won its seventh straight game on Tuesday by dominating Minnesota, 7-2. The Royals brought home the money as $1.25 road favorites, while eclipsing the 'over' of 7 ½ with several late runs.
Current streaks: The Royals have won six of their last seven games against AL Central opponents, while owning a season-best four-game road winning streak. The Twins have compiled a 5-2 record in their previous seven Game 2's of a home series, but have split their last eight games against division foes.
MLB Odds and Picks – Wainwright looks to stem Cardinals' losing streak vs. Pirates
By: The Linemakers
Sportingnews.com
LAS VEGAS -- The Pirates double-header sweep Tuesday sent the Cardinals to their season-high sixth loss in a row and dropped them 1.5 games back in the NL Central. The first-place Pirates now have the best record in baseball (64-22) and are 22 games over .500 for the first time since 1992 – the last time they made the playoffs.
Pittsburgh has now won five straight over the Cardinals and gained loads of confidence in the process that might carry them past the skeletons in the closet from their past two years of August failures. The double-header sweep was their first over the Cards since 1978.
St. Louis has scored only five runs over its past 56 innings, and things don’t look to get any better for the bats – or pitching staff – now that All-Star catcher, and NL MVP candidate, Yadier Molina is expected to miss two weeks with a sprained right knee.
Tonight, the Cardinals go with ace Adam Wainwright (13-6, 2.51 ERA), who has yet to face the Pirates this season. He comes off a 4-1 loss to the Braves Friday night, where he gave up all four runs in seven innings of work. He’ll go against fellow All-Star Jeff Locke, who comes off a 2-0 loss at Miami on Friday. Locke has gone eight straight games allowing two runs or less.
We think this will be a low-scoring game with the Bucs finding a way to get the win again.
Was that Sister Sledge singing "We are Family" in the background? Something special is going on in Pittsburgh.
Bailey in the red on road
Homer Bailey (5-10, 3.77 ERA) may be compared to Nolan Ryan because of his hard stuff and penchant for throwing no-hitters, but in the same fashion as Ryan, he’s got a lot of holes in his arsenal. Bailey’s most glaring weakness this season has been pitching anywhere other than the Great American Ballpark. At home, he’s a respectable 3-2 with a 2.98 ERA, but on the road, his numbers (2-8 in 11 starts with a 4.52 ERA) have the look of someone ready to be sent down. It gets even worse for Bailey in day games, in which he’s 1-6 with a 5.04 ERA in 10 starts.
Today, Bailey is a -130 favorite at Petco Park against the Padres in an afternoon tilt. If Bailey’s numbers alone don’t get the bettor fired up to run to the window to go against him, then maybe the Reds’ overall performance lately will.
The Reds are currently on a five-game losing streak, with the heart of their lineup failing miserably on the latter half of their current west coast trip. With three walks last night, Reds fans have to be wondering why Joey Votto – their best hitter – won’t take a swing at anything close to being outside the strike zone. Some of those pitches have to look juicy, no?
What’s even more enticing about siding with San Diego today is Eric Stults (8-9, 3.65). Okay, so he’s lost his last two starts. But both of those were on the road. At home, he’s been one of the best in the game. San Diego has won his past eight home starts, and his last loss at Petco came in April against the Dodgers. All told, Stults has compiled a 5-1 record at home with a 2.45 ERA, good enough reason to support him today with the Padres on a four-game winning streak.
Ace of spades?
In some cultures, the ace of spades is seen as the card of death, while in others, it’s considered the highest-ranking card of the deck. That’s kind the rock-and-a-hard place that Justin Verlander is in right now for the Tigers. What exactly is wrong with the pitcher once considered the best in the game?
Verlander hasn’t struck out more than five batters in any game over his last eight starts, and over his last nine starts the Tigers are just 3-6. His last two starts have been the most baffling, as he’s allowed 12 earned runs over 11 2/3 innings and taken the loss in each. The light-hitting White Sox roughed him up on Thursday for seven runs in Chicago’s 7-4 win.
Fantasy Source: What do do with Verlander?
This afternoon, Verlander is a -145 favorite against the fading Nationals, who put Gio Gonzalez on the mound. Unlike Verlander, Gonzalez has made the most of his last seven opportunities, with Washington going 6-1in those outings. He’s allowed only 11 earned runs over his last seven starts, and never more than three runs in any of those games. But the most amazing part is how active the Nats’ bats have been when he pitches. In their last six wins behind Gonzalez, they have averaged eight runs a game. In their one loss over that stretch, to the Dodgers on July 20, Gonzalez went six innings without allowing a run.
Because Verlander is in a funk and the Nationals hitters seem to feel good about Gonzalez being on the mound, we think Washington presents great value today.
Bedard ripe today
So what if the Astros have the worst record in baseball, and Eric Bedard has lost his past five starts? Today’s game at Baltimore looks like a great spot for Bedard to excel.
He’s allowed only four earned runs over his past three starts, but has gotten only two runs of support over the same three games. The Astros have been shut out in three of his last five starts. But based on his performance alone, despite the lack of run support, he shouldn’t be this large of an underdog (+215) today. Look for the Bedard, who spent the first five years of his career at Baltimore, to keep his team in the game and have a chance to win.
Wednesday selections:
Pirates (Locke) +110 vs. Cardinals
Cardinals/Pirates UNDER 7 (-110)
Padres (Stults) +126 vs. Reds
Blue Jays (Dickey) +158 at A’s
Nationals (Gonzalez) +135 at Tigers
Astros (Bedard) +215 at Orioles
Second-half record: 29-16 (+1,478)